PREDICT-GTN 2: Two-factor streamlined models match FIGO performance in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia.

OBJECTIVE: The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) scoring system uses the sum of eight risk-factors to predict single-agent chemotherapy resistance in Gestational Trophoblastic Neoplasia (GTN). To improve ease of use, this study aimed to generate: (i) streamlined models that match FIGO performance and; (ii) visual-decision aids (nomograms) for guiding management. METHODS: Using training (n = 4191) and validation datasets (n = 144) of GTN patients from two UK specialist centres, logistic regression analysis generated two-factor models for cross-validation and exploration. Performance was assessed using true and false positive rate, positive and negative predictive values, Bland-Altman calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, decision-curve analysis (DCA) and contingency tables. Nomograms were developed from estimated model parameters and performance cross-checked upon the training and validation dataset. RESULTS: Three streamlined, two-factor models were selected for analysis: (i) M1, pre-treatment hCG + history of failed chemotherapy; (ii) M2, pre-treatment hCG + site of metastases and; (iii) M3, pre-treatment hCG + number of metastases. Using both training and validation datasets, these models showed no evidence of significant discordance from FIGO (McNemar's test p > 0.78) or across a range of performance parameters. This behaviour was maintained when applying algorithms simulating the logic of the nomograms. CONCLUSIONS: Our streamlined models could be used to assess GTN patients and replace FIGO, statistically matching performance. Given the importance of imaging parameters in guiding treatment, M2 and M3 are favoured for ongoing validation. In resource-poor countries, where access to specialist centres is problematic, M1 could be pragmatically implemented. Further prospective validation on a larger cohort is recommended.

High HIV prevalence in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia patients.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the HIV prevalence in patients diagnosed with gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN). DESIGN: A retrospective single centre cohort study. METHODS: A database from the Sheffield Trophoblastic Disease Centre (STDC), Sheffield, UK was searched between 1st January 2015 and 31st December 2021. A total of 3,591 patients were referred to STDC with a diagnosis of gestational trophoblastic disease (GTD), of which 221 (6.2%) were treated for GTN. The prevalence of HIV-positive tests in GTN patients was assessed. RESULTS: HIV testing was performed in 93% GTN patients ( n  = 205/221). Overall, 1.3% of GTN patients ( n  = 3/221) were HIV-positive, involving two known HIV-positive patients and one new diagnosis. This equates to a HIV prevalence of 14 : 1000, which is ∼7 to 9× higher than the HIV prevalence in Sheffield (1.9 per 1000) and Yorkshire and Humber (1.5 per 1000). CONCLUSION: Given the extremely high HIV prevalence in our population, 'opt out' HIV testing is recommended within our specialist trophoblastic centre for all referred GTD and GTN patients. There is little reason to suspect that the prevalence of HIV-positive patients is any lower in the cohort of GTD patients referred to specialist trophoblastic centres for hCG screening alone, without requiring chemotherapy, particularly considering that most GTN arises from GTD.

Factors associated with failed 'test of cure' in the NHS Cervical Screening Programme: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine predictive factors associated with failed 'test of cure' (TOC) in the NHS Cervical Screening Programme (NHSCSP). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of all patients treated by large loop excision of transformation zone (LLETZ) between 1st April 2014 and 1st April 2019. Those with no documented HPV genotype on referral, no TOC outcome, those having a hysterectomy, chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy were excluded from final analysis. RESULTS: Patients referred with a singular HPV genotype of HPV 16, HPV 18, or HPV Other types (HPV O) were significantly more likely to pass TOC than those referred with multiple HPV genotypes (p < 0.0001). Those with HPV genotypes including HPV O were significantly more likely to fail TOC as compared to those with genotypes of solely HPV 16 and/or 18 (p < 0.0001). Patients aged ≥51 years were significantly more likely to fail TOC when compared to all other age groups (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Age >51 yrs. and infection with multiple hr-HPV types were predictors of post treatment hr-HPV persistence. Knowledge of HPV genotype both at referral, and following treatment, could allow a more individualised, and patient-centred, approach to both the management and follow up of CIN. HPV genotype should be reported as standard on all cervical screening sample results. The term HPV O should not be utilised and instead actual HPV genotype should be reported. This would enable us to optimise not only future research but would also allow future monitoring of the efficacy of vaccination programmes.

Flat-dose versus weight or body surface area-based methotrexate dosing in low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: Single-agent methotrexate (MTX) is commonly used as first-line treatment for low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (LR-GTN), although no international consensus exists on the optimal treatment regimen to maximise complete hCG response (CR) and minimise relapse rates. Current regimens differ in the route of administration, dose scheduling, and use of flat-dose, body surface area (BSA)- or weight-based dosing. In the UK a methotrexate-folinic acid (MTX-FA) 8-day 50 mg intramuscular flat-dose regimen is used, with 15 mg oral folinic acid rescue. In LR-GTN patients, we aim to determine the effect of MTX dose adjustment by BSA and weight upon chemotherapy response and disease relapse. METHODS: Between January 1973 and August 2020, 935 LR-GTN patients treated with first-line MTX-FA were identified from a single UK specialist trophoblastic centre. Of these, 364 were included, of which 178 (49%) had a CR to first-line MTX-FA. Subgroup analyses were performed upon: (i) patients who changed chemotherapy due to MTX toxicity (n = 33); and (ii) patients with a FIGO score of 5-6 (n = 85). Logistic regression analysis explored the relationship between BSA or weight adjusted MTX dosing and: (i) CR to first-line chemotherapy; (ii) incidence of disease relapse. Linear regression analyses assessed the correlation of BSA and weight with the number of MTX-FA cycles required to achieve CR. RESULTS: In LR-GTN patients, BSA and weight adjusted MTX-FA dosing did not influence CR to first-line chemotherapy or the incidence of disease relapse. The number of MTX cycles required to achieve CR was not associated with BSA or weight. These findings were maintained in a subgroup analysis of FIGO 5-6 patients. The incidence of MTX toxicity was not influenced by BSA or weight. CONCLUSIONS: In the treatment of LR-GTN, dose individualisation using BSA or weight is not required, and fixed dosing continues to be preferred as the UK standard.

PREDICT-GTN 1: Can we improve the FIGO scoring system in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia?

Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients are treated according to the eight-variable International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) scoring system, that aims to predict first-line single-agent chemotherapy resistance. FIGO is imperfect with one-third of low-risk patients developing disease resistance to first-line single-agent chemotherapy. We aimed to generate simplified models that improve upon FIGO. Logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) modelling (n = 4191) generated six models (M1-6). M1, all eight FIGO variables (scored data); M2, all eight FIGO variables (scored and raw data); M3, nonimaging variables (scored data); M4, nonimaging variables (scored and raw data); M5, imaging variables (scored data); and M6, pretreatment hCG (raw data) + imaging variables (scored data). Performance was compared to FIGO using true and false positive rates, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Bland-Altman calibration plots, decision curve analysis and contingency tables. M1-6 were calibrated and outperformed FIGO on true positive rate and positive predictive value. Using LR and MLP, M1, M2 and M4 generated small improvements to the ROC curve and decision curve analysis. M3, M5 and M6 matched FIGO or performed less well. Compared to FIGO, most (excluding LR M4 and MLP M5) had significant discordance in patient classification (McNemar's test P < .05); 55-112 undertreated, 46-206 overtreated. Statistical modelling yielded only small gains over FIGO performance, arising through recategorisation of treatment-resistant patients, with a significant proportion of under/overtreatment as the available data have been used a priori to allocate primary chemotherapy. Streamlining FIGO should now be the focus.

Computed tomography chest imaging offers no advantage over chest X-ray in the initial assessment of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: The International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) score identifies gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients as low- or high-risk of single-agent chemotherapy resistance (SACR). Computed tomography (CT) has greater sensitivity than chest X-ray (CXR) in detecting pulmonary metastases, but effects upon outcomes remain unclear. METHODS: Five hundred and eighty-nine patients underwent both CXR and CT during GTN assessment. Treatment decisions were CXR based. The number of metastases, risk scores, and risk category using CXR versus CT were compared. CT-derived chest assessment was evaluated as impact upon treatment decision compared to patient outcome, incidence of SACR, time-to-normal human chorionic gonadotrophin hormone (TNhCG), and primary chemotherapy resistance (PCR). RESULTS: Metastasis detection (p < 0.0001) and FIGO score (p = 0.001) were higher using CT versus CXR. CT would have increased FIGO score in 188 (31.9%), with 43 re-classified from low- to high-risk, of whom 23 (53.5%) received curative single-agent chemotherapy. SACR was higher when score (p = 0.044) or risk group (p < 0.0001) changed. Metastases on CXR (p = 0.019) but not CT (p = 0.088) lengthened TNhCG. Logistic regression analysis found no difference between CXR (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.63) versus CT (AUC = 0.64) in predicting PCR. CONCLUSIONS: CT chest would improve the prediction of SACR, but does not influence overall treatment outcome, TNhCG, or prediction of PCR. Lower radiation doses and cost mean ongoing CXR-based assessment is recommended.