The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis on adverse clinical outcomes and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study using the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently co-exist. We assess the impact of having NAFLD on adverse clinical outcomes and all-cause mortality for people with CKD. METHODS: A total of 18,073 UK Biobank participants identified to have CKD (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or albuminuria > 3 mg/mmol) were prospectively followed up by electronic linkage to hospital and death records. Cox-regression estimated the hazard ratios (HR) associated with having NAFLD (elevated hepatic steatosis index or ICD-code) and NAFLD fibrosis (elevated fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score or NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS)) on cardiovascular events (CVE), progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: 56.2% of individuals with CKD had NAFLD at baseline, and 3.0% and 7.7% had NAFLD fibrosis according to a FIB-4 > 2.67 and NFS ≥ 0.676, respectively. The median follow-up was 13 years. In univariate analysis, NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of CVE (HR 1.49 [1.38-1.60]), all-cause mortality (HR 1.22 [1.14-1.31]) and ESRD (HR 1.26 [1.02-1.54]). Following multivariable adjustment, NAFLD remained an independent risk factor for CVE overall (HR 1.20 [1.11-1.30], p < 0.0001), but not ACM or ESRD. In univariate analysis, elevated NFS and FIB-4 scores were associated with increased risk of CVE (HR 2.42 [2.09-2.80] and 1.64 [1.30-2.08]) and all-cause mortality (HR 2.82 [2.48-3.21] and 1.82 [1.47-2.24]); the NFS score was also associated with ESRD (HR 5.15 [3.52-7.52]). Following full adjustment, the NFS remained associated with an increased incidence of CVE (HR 1.19 [1.01-1.40]) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.31 [1.13-1.52]). CONCLUSIONS: In people with CKD, NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of CVE, and the NAFLD fibrosis score is associated with an elevated risk of CVE and worse survival.

The mental wellbeing of prison staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study.

Background: COVID-19 is likely to have had an impact on the mental wellbeing of prison staff because of the high risk for infectious disease outbreaks in prisons and the pre-existing high burden of mental health issues among staff. Methods: A cross-sectional study of staff within 26 prisons in England was carried out between 20th July 2020 and 2nd October 2020. Mental wellbeing was measured using the Short-version of Warwick-Edinburgh Wellbeing Scale (SWEMWBS). Staff wellbeing was compared to that of the English population using indirectly standardised data from the Health Survey for England 2010-13 and a one-sample t-test. Multivariate linear regression modelling explored associations with mental wellbeing score. Results: Two thousand five hundred and thirty-four individuals were included (response rate 22.2%). The mean age was 44 years, 53% were female, and 93% were white. The sample mean SWEMWBS score was 23.84 and the standardised population mean score was 23.57. The difference in means was statistically significant (95% CI 0.09-0.46), but not of a clinically meaningful level. The multivariate linear regression model was adjusted for age category, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, occupation, and prison service region. Higher wellbeing was significantly associated with older age, male sex, Black/Black British ethnicity, never having smoked, working within the health staff team, and working in certain prison regions. Interpretation: Unexpectedly, prison staff wellbeing as measured by SWEMWBS was similar to that of the general population. Reasons for this are unclear but could include the reduction in violence within prisons since the start of the pandemic. Qualitative research across a diverse sample of prison settings would enrich understanding of staff wellbeing within the pandemic.

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test maintains its diagnostic and prognostic performance in alcohol-related liver disease: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is the main cause of chronic liver disease. The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test is a serological biomarker for fibrosis staging in chronic liver disease, however its utility in alcohol-related liver disease warrants further validation. We assessed the diagnostic and prognostic performance of ELF in alcohol-related liver disease. METHODS: Observational cohort study assessing paired ELF and histology from 786 tertiary care patients with chronic liver disease due to alcohol (n = 81) and non-alcohol aetiologies (n = 705). Prognostic data were available for 64 alcohol patients for a median of 6.4 years. Multiple ELF cut-offs were assessed to determine diagnostic utility in moderate fibrosis and cirrhosis. Survival data were assessed to determine the ability of ELF to predict liver related events and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: ELF identified cirrhosis and moderate fibrosis in alcohol-related liver disease independently of aminotransferase levels with areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.895 (95% CI 0.823-0.968) and 0.923 (95% CI 0.866-0.981) respectively, which were non-inferior to non-alcohol aetiologies. The overall performance of ELF was assessed using the Obuchowski method: in alcohol = 0.934 (95% CI 0.908-0.960); non-alcohol = 0.907 (95% CI 0.895-0.919). Using ELF < 9.8 to exclude and ≧ 10.5 to diagnose cirrhosis, 87.7% of alcohol cases could have avoided biopsy, with sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 85%. A one-unit increase in ELF was associated with a 2.6 (95% CI 1.55-4.31, p < 0.001) fold greater odds of cirrhosis at baseline and 2.0-fold greater risk of a liver related event within 6 years (95% CI 1.39-2.99, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: ELF accurately stages liver fibrosis independently of transaminase elevations as a marker of inflammation and has superior prognostic performance to biopsy in alcohol-related liver disease.

All coffee types decrease the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in chronic liver disease: a UK Biobank study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a growing cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, particularly in low to middle-income countries with high disease burden and limited treatment availability. Coffee consumption has been linked with lower rates of CLD, but little is known about the effects of different coffee types, which vary in chemical composition. This study aimed to investigate associations of coffee consumption, including decaffeinated, instant and ground coffee, with chronic liver disease outcomes. METHODS: A total of 494,585 UK Biobank participants with known coffee consumption and electronic linkage to hospital, death and cancer records were included in this study. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of incident CLD, incident CLD or steatosis, incident hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death from CLD according to coffee consumption of any type as well as for decaffeinated, instant and ground coffee individually. RESULTS: Among 384,818 coffee drinkers and 109,767 non-coffee drinkers, there were 3600 cases of CLD, 5439 cases of CLD or steatosis, 184 cases of HCC and 301 deaths from CLD during a median follow-up of 10.7 years. Compared to non-coffee drinkers, coffee drinkers had lower adjusted HRs of CLD (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.72-0.86), CLD or steatosis (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.86), death from CLD (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.67) and HCC (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.54-1.19). The associations for decaffeinated, instant and ground coffee individually were similar to all types combined. CONCLUSION: The finding that all types of coffee are protective against CLD is significant given the increasing incidence of CLD worldwide and the potential of coffee as an intervention to prevent CLD onset or progression.

Systematic review: Accuracy of the enhanced liver fibrosis test for diagnosing advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The rising incidence of chronic liver disease (CLD) has increased the need for early recognition. This systematic review assesses the diagnostic accuracy of the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test in cases of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis due to multiple etiologies in at-risk populations. METHODS: Studies evaluating the ELF accuracy in identifying advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, defined as METAVIR stage F ≥ 3 and F = 4 or equivalent, in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), alcohol liver disease (ALD), or viral hepatitis were included. Liver biopsy was used as the reference standard. Medline and Embase databases were searched. The QUADAS-2 tool was used as a framework to assess risk of bias and applicability. The area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) was extracted as a summary measure of diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Thirty-six studies were included: 11 hepatitis C, 4 hepatitis B, 9 NAFLD, 2 ALD, and 10 mixed. The ELF test showed good diagnostic performance in detecting advanced fibrosis in patients with viral hepatitis (AUROC 0.69 to 0.98) and excellent performance in NAFLD (AUROC 0.78 to 0.97) and ALD (AUROC from 0.92 to 0.94). There is also evidence of good diagnostic performance for detecting cirrhosis in patients with viral hepatitis (AUROC 0.63 to 0.99), good performance in NAFLD (AUROC 0.85 to 0.92), and excellent performance in patients with ALD (AUROC 0.93 to 0.94). CONCLUSION: This systematic review supports the use of the ELF test across a range of CLD as a possible alternative to liver biopsy in selected cases.

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test is associated with liver-related outcomes in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). The aim of this study was to estimate the association between the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test and liver-related events (LRE) and its performance in predicting LRE in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case-control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). METHODS: In a cohort of 95,126 we performed a case-control study measuring ELF in blinded samples from 173 participants with self-reported high alcohol use and / or BMI ≥25 kg/m2 comprising all 58 cases who developed LRE and 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8.5 years. RESULTS: Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 10.51 hazard ratios (HR) for LRE were 4.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.37-10.03) (unadjusted model) and 4.62 (95% CI 2.12-10.08) (adjusted for deprivation and self-reported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes). At a threshold of 9.8 HR for LRE were 2.21 (95% CI 1.22-3.97) (unadjusted model) and 2.18 (95% CI 1.19-4.01) (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating time-dependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 10.51 were 1.94 (95% CI 1.10-3.39) (unadjusted) and 2.05 (95% CI 1.16-3.64) (adjusted) and at a threshold of 9.8 HRs were 1.85 (95% CI 1.09-3.15) (unadjusted) and 1.80 (95% CI 1.04-3.13) (adjusted). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for recruitment ELF predicting LRE was 0.58 (95% CI 0.49-0.68), and for second subsequent ELF 0.61 (95% CI 0.52-0.71). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the association between ELF and CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the potential of ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is nested in UKCTOCS. UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

The testing of people with any risk factor for hepatitis C in community pharmacies is cost-effective.

New antiviral drugs with high efficacy mean the hepatitis C virus (HCV) can now be eliminated. To achieve this, it is necessary to identify undiagnosed cases of HCV. However, the costs of testing should be considered when judging the overall cost-effectiveness of treatment. This study describes the cost-effectiveness of a community pharmacy testing service in a population of people at risk of HCV living on the Isle of Wight (United Kingdom). Dry blood spot testing was conducted in anyone with a known risk factor for HCV in 20 community pharmacies. The outcomes and costs were entered into a Markov model. Cost and health utilities from the model were used to calculate an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). In 24 months, 186 tests were conducted, 13 were positive for HCV RNA and six of these (46%) received treatment during the follow-up period. All achieved a sustained virological response at 3 months. The overall cost of the testing and treatment intervention was £242 183, and the ICER for the service was £3689 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. If screening had been restricted to just people with a history of injecting drug use (PWID) the ICER would have been £4865 per QALY gained. The service was effective at identifying people with HCV infection, and despite the additional cost of targeted testing, its cost-effectiveness was below the commonly accepted thresholds. In this setting, restricting targeted testing to PWID would not improve the cost-effectiveness.

Coffee consumption and health: umbrella review of meta-analyses of multiple health outcomes.

Objectives To evaluate the existing evidence for associations between coffee consumption and multiple health outcomes.Design Umbrella review of the evidence across meta-analyses of observational and interventional studies of coffee consumption and any health outcome.Data sources PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and screening of references.Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Meta-analyses of both observational and interventional studies that examined the associations between coffee consumption and any health outcome in any adult population in all countries and all settings. Studies of genetic polymorphisms for coffee metabolism were excluded.Results The umbrella review identified 201 meta-analyses of observational research with 67 unique health outcomes and 17 meta-analyses of interventional research with nine unique outcomes. Coffee consumption was more often associated with benefit than harm for a range of health outcomes across exposures including high versus low, any versus none, and one extra cup a day. There was evidence of a non-linear association between consumption and some outcomes, with summary estimates indicating largest relative risk reduction at intakes of three to four cups a day versus none, including all cause mortality (relative risk 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.79 to 0.88), cardiovascular mortality (0.81, 0.72 to 0.90), and cardiovascular disease (0.85, 0.80 to 0.90). High versus low consumption was associated with an 18% lower risk of incident cancer (0.82, 0.74 to 0.89). Consumption was also associated with a lower risk of several specific cancers and neurological, metabolic, and liver conditions. Harmful associations were largely nullified by adequate adjustment for smoking, except in pregnancy, where high versus low/no consumption was associated with low birth weight (odds ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.67), preterm birth in the first (1.22, 1.00 to 1.49) and second (1.12, 1.02 to 1.22) trimester, and pregnancy loss (1.46, 1.06 to 1.99). There was also an association between coffee drinking and risk of fracture in women but not in men.Conclusion Coffee consumption seems generally safe within usual levels of intake, with summary estimates indicating largest risk reduction for various health outcomes at three to four cups a day, and more likely to benefit health than harm. Robust randomised controlled trials are needed to understand whether the observed associations are causal. Importantly, outside of pregnancy, existing evidence suggests that coffee could be tested as an intervention without significant risk of causing harm. Women at increased risk of fracture should possibly be excluded.

Risk of chronic liver disease in post-menopausal women due to body mass index, alcohol and their interaction: a prospective nested cohort study within the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

BACKGROUND: We investigated the risk of chronic liver disease (CLD) due to alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) and the effects of their interaction in a prospective cohort study of women recruited to the UKCTOCS trial. METHODS: 95,126 post-menopausal women without documented CLD were stratified into 12 groups defined by combinations of BMI (normal, overweight, obese) and alcohol consumption (none, <1-15, 16-20 and ≥21 units/week), and followed for an average of 5.1 years. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated for incident liver-related events (LRE). RESULTS: First LREs were reported in 325 (0.34%) participants. Compared to women with normal BMI, HR = 1.44 (95% CI; 1.10-1.87) in the overweight group and HR = 2.25 (95% CI; 1.70-2.97) in the obese group, adjusted for alcohol and potential confounders. Compared to those abstinent from alcohol, HR = 0.70 (95% CI; 0.55-0.88) for <1-15 units/week, 0.93 (95% CI; 0.50-1.73) for 16-20 units/week and 1.82 (95% CI; 0.97-3.39) for ≥21 units/week adjusted for BMI and potential confounders. Compared to women with normal BMI drinking no alcohol, HR for LRE in obese women consuming ≥21 units/week was 2.86 (95% CI; 0.67-12.42), 1.58 (95% CI; 0.96-2.61) for obese women drinking <1-15 units/week and 1.93 (95% CI; 0.66-5.62) in those with normal BMI consuming ≥21 units/week after adjustment for potential confounders. We found no significant interaction between BMI and alcohol. CONCLUSION: High BMI and alcohol consumption and abstinence are risk factors for CLD in post-menopausal women. However, BMI and alcohol do not demonstrate significant interaction in this group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978 . Registered 06/04/2000.

Coffee, including caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between coffee, including caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and assess the influence of HCC aetiology and pre-existing liver disease. DESIGN: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis. We calculated relative risks (RRs) of HCC according to caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee consumption using a random-effects dose-response meta-analysis. We tested for modification of the effect estimate by HCC aetiology and pre-existing liver disease. We judged the quality of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. RESULTS: We found 18 cohorts, involving 2 272 642 participants and 2905 cases, and 8 case-control studies, involving 1825 cases and 4652 controls. An extra two cups per day of coffee was associated with a 35% reduction in the risk of HCC (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.72). The inverse association was weaker for cohorts (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.77), which were generally of higher quality than case-control studies (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.69). There was evidence that the association was not significantly altered by stage of liver disease or the presence/absence of high alcohol consumption, high body mass index, type 2 diabetes mellitus, smoking, or hepatitis B and C viruses. An extra two cups of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee (2 and 3 cohort studies, respectively) were associated with reductions of 27% (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.85) and 14% (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.00) in the risk of HCC. However, due to a lack of randomised controlled trials, potential publication bias and there being no accepted definition of coffee, the quality of evidence under the GRADE criteria was 'very low'. CONCLUSIONS: Increased consumption of caffeinated coffee and, to a lesser extent, decaffeinated coffee are associated with reduced risk of HCC, including in pre-existing liver disease. These findings are important given the increasing incidence of HCC globally and its poor prognosis.

Biomarkers of Hepatic Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis C: A Comparison of 10 Biomarkers Using 2 Different Assays for Hyaluronic Acid.

BACKGROUND: Advancing fibrosis is regarded as the most important factor when stratifying patients with chronic hepatitis C for retreatment. GOALS: (1) To compare the performance of 10 biomarkers of fibrosis, including patented tests, among patients with chronic hepatitis C and treatment failure; and (2) to assess the impact on biomarker performance of using 2 different assays of hyaluronic acid (HA). STUDY: For 80 patients, liver histology (Metavir) was compared with biomarker scores using sera obtained within 6 months of liver biopsy (indirect biomarkers: AST:ALT ratio, APRI, Forns index, FIB-4, Fibrometer V3G; direct biomarkers: ELF, Fibrospect II, Hyaluronic acid-HA, Fibrometer V2G, Hepascore). Direct biomarker scores were calculated using 2 validated assays for HA (ELISA and radiometric). RESULTS: Using the ELISA assay for HA to calculate the direct panels, all 10 of the biomarkers exhibited comparable overall discriminatory performance (unweighted Obuchowski measure, ordROC 0.92-0.94, P-value>0.05) except AST:ALT ratio and APRI (ordROC 0.86-0.88, P-value<0.05). For the detection of moderate (F2-4) and advanced (F3-4) fibrosis, the AUROC of Fibrometer 2G were significantly higher than AST:ALT ratio and APRI but none of the other biomarkers. Good correlation was observed between the 2 HA assays (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.873) with the ELISA assay exhibiting superior diagnostic performance (ordROC 0.92 vs. 0.88, P-value=0.003). Importantly, the performance of many of the direct biomarkers at their diagnostic thresholds was heavily influenced by the choice of HA assay. CONCLUSIONS: Although many biomarkers exhibited good diagnostic performance for the detection of advancing fibrosis, our results indicate that diagnostic performance may be significantly affected by the selection of individual component assays.

Noninvasive markers of liver fibrosis: on-treatment changes of serum markers predict the outcome of antifibrotic therapy.

AIM: The utility of noninvasive serum markers to longitudinally monitor liver fibrosis is not established. METHODS: A total of 70 patients with chronic hepatitis C who had previously failed antiviral therapy were randomized to receive pegylated interferon with or without silymarin for 24 months. Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) tests (hyularonic acid, terminal peptide of procollagen III, tissue inhibitor of matrix metaloproteinase-1) were performed on patient sera obtained before, during and at the end of the study (0, 12, 24 months) and liver histology obtained before and at the end of the study. RESULTS: At 24 months, absolute changes in Ishak fibrosis stage and ELF ranged from -4 to +4 and from -2.41 to +2.68, respectively. Absolute changes in ELF at 12 months were significantly associated with changes in both ELF and histology at 24 months. A model combining both baseline ELF and change of ELF at 12 months could predict the 24-month ELF (R=0.609, P<1×10), a decrease in ELF at 24 months [area under the curve (AUC): 0.80-0.85] and an increase in ELF at 24 months (AUC: 0.81-0.85). Furthermore, a model combining both baseline histologic stage and ELF together with the change of ELF at 12 months could predict 24-month histology (R=0.601, P<1×10, AUC: 0.88-0.92), histologic fibrosis regression (AUC: 0.81-0.84) and progression (AUC: 0.86-0.91). CONCLUSION: Our observations suggest that a change in the serum marker ELF predicts changes in liver fibrosis over a longer period. These data support the use of ELF as a surrogate marker of liver fibrosis evolution in monitoring antifibrotic treatments, thus permitting 'response-guided' therapy by the early identification of patients who will benefit from prolonged treatment.

Type 2 diabetes and risk of hospital admission or death for chronic liver diseases.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) on hospital admissions and deaths due to common chronic liver diseases (CLDs) is uncertain. Our aim was to investigate associations between T2DM and CLDs in a national retrospective cohort study and to investigate the role of sex and socio-economic status (SES). METHODS: We used International Classification of Disease codes to identify incident alcoholic liver disease (ALD), autoimmune liver disease, haemochromatosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and viral liver disease from linked diabetes, hospital, cancer and death records for people of 40-89years of age in Scotland 2004-2013. We used quasi Poisson regression to estimate rate ratios (RR). RESULTS: There were 6667 and 33624 first mentions of CLD in hospital, cancer and death records over ∼1.8 and 24million person-years in people with and without T2DM, respectively. The most common liver disease was ALD among people without diabetes and was NAFLD among people with T2DM. Age-adjusted RR for T2DM compared to the non-diabetic population (95% confidence intervals) varied between 1.27 (1.04-1.55) for autoimmune liver disease and 5.36 (4.41-6.51) for NAFLD. RRs were lower for men than women and for more compared to less deprived populations for both ALD and NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: T2DM is associated with increased risk of hospital admission or death for all common CLDs and the strength of the association varies by type of CLD, sex and SES. Increasing prevalence of T2DM is likely to result in increasing burden of all CLDs.

Modelling the impact of improving screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection on future hepatocellular carcinoma rates and liver-related mortality.

BACKGROUND: The societal, clinical and economic burden imposed by the complications of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection - including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) - is expected to increase over the coming decades. However, new therapies may improve sustained virological response (SVR) rates and shorten treatment duration. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of HCV-related disease in England if current management strategies remain the same and the impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available. METHODS: A previously published model was adapted for England using published literature and government reports, and validated through an iterative process of three meetings of HCV experts. The impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available was modelled and compared to the base-case scenario of continuing current management strategies. To assess the 'best case' clinical benefit of new therapies, the number of patients treated was increased by a total of 115% by 2018. RESULTS: In the base-case scenario, total viraemic (HCV RNA-positive) cases of HCV in England will decrease from 144,000 in 2013 to 76,300 in 2030. However, due to the slow progression of chronic HCV, the number of individuals with cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will continue to increase over this period. The model suggests that the 'best case' substantially reduces HCV-related hepatic disease and HCV-related liver mortality by 2020 compared to the base-case scenario. The number of HCV-related HCC cases would decrease 50% by 2020 and the number progressing from infection to decompensated cirrhosis would decline by 65%. Therefore, compared to projections of current practices, increasing treatment numbers by 115% by 2018 would reduce HCV-related mortality by 50% by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that with current treatment practices the number of patients developing HCV-related cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will increase substantially, with HCV-related liver deaths likely to double by 2030. However, increasing diagnosis and treatment rates could optimise the reduction in the burden of disease produced by the new therapies, potentially halving HCV-related liver mortality and HCV-related HCC by 2020.

Evaluation of the aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index and enhanced liver fibrosis tests to detect significant fibrosis due to chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C patients is important for prognosis and making decisions regarding antiviral treatment. Although liver biopsy is considered the reference standard for assessing hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C, it is invasive and associated with sampling and interobserver variability. Serum fibrosis markers have been utilized as surrogates for a liver biopsy. METHODS: We completed a prospective study of 191 patients in which blood draws and liver biopsies were performed on the same visit. Using liver biopsies the sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values for both aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI) and enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) were determined. The patients were divided into training and validation patient sets to develop and validate a clinically useful algorithm for differentiating mild and significant fibrosis. RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve for the APRI and ELF tests for the training set was 0.865 and 0.880, respectively. The clinical sensitivity in separating mild (F0-F1) from significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was 80% and 86.0% with a clinical specificity of 86.7% and 77.8%, respectively. For the validation sets the area under the ROC curve for the APRI and ELF tests was, 0.855 and 0.780, respectively. The clinical sensitivity of the APRI and ELF tests in separating mild (F0-F1) from significant (F2-F4) fibrosis for the validation set was 90.0% and 70.0% with a clinical specificity of 73.3% and 86.7%, respectively. There were no differences between the APRI and ELF tests in distinguishing mild from significant fibrosis for either the training or validation sets (P=0.61 and 0.20, respectively). Using APRI as the primary test followed by ELF for patients in the intermediate zone, would have decreased the number of liver biopsies needed by 40% for the validation set. Overall, use of our algorithm would have decreased the number of patients who needed a liver biopsy from 95 to 24-a 74.7% reduction. CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown that the APRI and ELF tests are equally accurate in distinguishing mild from significant liver fibrosis, and combining them into a validated algorithm improves their performance in distinguishing mild from significant fibrosis.

Validation of terminal peptide of procollagen III for the detection and assessment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

UNLABELLED: Liver biopsy is the reference standard for the detection of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) within nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The aim of this study was to identify a biomarker of NASH in patients without significant fibrosis. In all, 172 patients from two centers with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included in this study. Eighty-four patients from a single center were included as a derivation cohort and 88 patients from a second center were included as a validation cohort. Serum samples were tested for candidate markers of fibrosis and inflammation alongside hematological and biochemical markers. Among patients without advanced fibrosis, terminal peptide of procollagen III (PIIINP) was the only marker found to be associated with a histological diagnosis of NASH in both cohorts. PIIINP also correlated with the total NAFLD activity score (NAS) and its constituent components (P < 0.001). Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for PIIINP in discriminating between NASH and simple steatosis (SS) was 0.77-0.82 in patients with F0-2 fibrosis and 0.82-0.84 in patients with F0-3 fibrosis. PIIINP was elevated in patients with advanced fibrosis, the overwhelming majority of whom had NASH. When incorporating patients with all degrees of fibrosis from both cohorts, PIIINP was able to discriminate between patients with SS and those with NASH or advanced fibrosis with AUROC 0.85-0.87. CONCLUSION: PIIINP discriminates between SS and NASH or advanced fibrosis. The use of a single biomarker in this context will be of clinical utility in detecting the minority of patients with NAFLD who have NASH or advanced fibrosis related to NASH.

Predicted effects of treatment for HCV infection vary among European countries.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, as well as screening practices and access to therapy, vary among European countries. It is important to determine the magnitude of the effects of such differences on incidence and mortality of infection. We compared the dynamics of infection and screening and treatment practices among Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. We also assessed the effects of treatment with pegylated interferon and additional effects of triple therapy with protease inhibitors. METHODS: We created a country-specific Markov model of HCV progression based on published epidemiologic data (on HCV prevalence, screening, genotype, alcohol consumption among patients, and treatments) and reports of competitive and hepatocellular carcinoma mortality for the 6 countries. The model was used to predict the incidence of HCV-related cirrhosis and its mortality until 2021 for each country. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2011, antiviral therapy reduced the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis by 7.1% and deaths by 3.4% overall. Reductions in incidence and mortality values ranged from 4.0% and 1.9%, respectively, in Italy to 16.3% and 9.0%, respectively, in France. From 2012 to 2021, antiviral treatment of patients with HCV genotype 1 infection that includes protease inhibitor-based triple therapy will reduce the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis by 17.7% and mortality by 9.7% overall. The smallest reduction is predicted for Italy (incidence reduced by 10.1% and mortality by 5.4%) and the highest is for France (reductions of 34.3% and 20.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Although HCV infection is treated with the same therapies in different countries, the effects of the therapies on morbidity and mortality vary significantly. In addition to common guidelines that are based on virologic response-guided therapy, there is a need for public health policies based on population-guided therapy.

Systematic review of the diagnostic performance of serum markers of liver fibrosis in alcoholic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) is a significant cause of death and morbidity. Detection of liver fibrosis at an early stage could provide opportunities for more optimal management. Serum markers of liver fibrosis offer an alternative to biopsy. Evidence of the performance of biomarkers in ALD is needed and a systematic review to evaluate available studies was conducted. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched. Studies were included if they evaluated paired samples of biopsy and serum, and presented data as sensitivity, specificity, or ROC curves. RESULTS: 15 studies were included- median participant number = 146 (range 44-1034). Studies differed with respect to patient populations. 6 single markers were evaluated (mostly Hyaluronic Acid), and ten combined panels. Biomarkers could discriminate between people with severe fibrosis/cirrhosis with high diagnostic accuracy- HA (median AUROC 0.79 range 0.69-0.93), panels (median AUROC 0.83 range 0.38-0.95). Significant heterogeneity precluded pooling. Performance was poorer for detecting less severe fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: There are limited numbers of small studies evaluating the accuracy of biomarkers in identifying fibrosis on biopsy in ALD. Some showed promise (both HA alone and some panels) in the identification of cirrhosis/severe fibrosis and could be used to rule it out in heavy drinkers. Biomarkers less accurate with less severe fibrosis.

Comparison of ELF, FibroTest and FibroScan for the non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: FibroTest (FT) is the most frequently used serum fibrosis marker and consists of an algorithm of five fibrosis markers (alfa2-macroglobulin, apolipoproteinA1, haptoglobin, GGT, bilirubin). The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test consists of an algorithm of three fibrosis markers (hyaluronic acid, amino-terminal propeptide-of-type-III-collagen, tissue-inhibitor of matrix-metaloproteinase-1). While a systematic review has shown comparable results for both individual markers, there has been no direct comparison of both markers. METHODS: In the present study, the ELF-test was analyzed retrospectively in patients with chronic liver disease, who received a liver biopsy, transient elastography (TE) and the FibroTest using histology as the reference method. Histology was classified according to METAVIR and the Ludwig's classification (F0-F4) for patients with chronic hepatitis C and B virus (HCV, HBV) infection and primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), respectively. RESULTS: Seventy-four patients were analysed: 36 with HCV, 10 with HBV, and 28 with PBC. The accuracy (AUROC) for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis (F≥2) for ELF and FibroTest was 0.78 (95%CI:0.67-0.89) and 0.69 (95%-CI:0.57-0.82), respectively (difference not statistically significant, n.s.). The AUROC for the diagnosis of liver cirrhosis was 0.92 (95%CI:0.83-1,00), and 0.91 (95%CI:0.83-0.99), respectively (n.s.). For 66 patients with reliable TE measurements the AUROC for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis (cirrhosis) for TE, ELF and FT were 0.80 (0.94), 0.76 (0.92), and 0.67 (0.91), respectively (n.s.). CONCLUSION: FibroTest and ELF can be performed with comparable diagnostic accuracy for the non-invasive staging of liver fibrosis. Serum tests are informative in a higher proportion of patients than transient elastography.

Enhanced liver fibrosis test can predict clinical outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians use fibrosis in a liver biopsy to predict clinical outcomes of chronic liver disease. The performance of non-invasive tests has been evaluated against histological assessment of fibrosis but use of clinical outcomes as the reference standard would be ideal. The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test was derived and validated in a large cohort of patients and shown to have high diagnostic accuracy (area under the curve (AUC)=0.80 95% CI 0.76 to 0.85) in identification of significant fibrosis on biopsy. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate ELF performance in predicting clinical outcomes by following up the original ELF cohort. METHODS: Patients recruited to the ELF study at seven English centres were followed up for liver morbidity and mortality by examination of clinical data. Defaulting/discharged patients were followed up by family practitioner questionnaires. Primary outcome measure was liver-related morbidity/liver-related death. RESULTS: 457 patients were followed up (median 7 years), with ascertainment of clinical status in 92%. There were 61 liver-related outcomes (39 deaths). Survival analysis showed that the ELF score predicts liver outcomes, with people having the highest ELF scores being significantly more likely to have clinical outcomes than those in lower-score groups. A Cox proportional hazards model showed fully adjusted HRs of 75 (ELF score 12.52-16.67), 20 (10.426-12.51) and 5 (8.34-10.425) compared with patients with ELF <8.34. A unit change in ELF is associated with a doubling of risk of liver-related outcome. CONCLUSIONS: An ELF test can predict clinical outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease and may be a useful prognostic tool in clinical practice.