Towards the quantification of perioperative cardiovascular risk in the African context: A sub-analysis of the South African Surgical Outcomes Study and the African Surgical Outcomes Study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular disease in patients requiring non-cardiac surgery in Africa is not known. These patients are at increased risk for postoperative cardiovascular complications. OBJECTIVES: In this sub-study, to use data on comorbidities and surgical outcomes from two large observational studies, the South African Surgical Outcomes Study (SASOS) and the African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS), to investigate the prevalence of cardiovascular disease in elective surgical patients and the risk of postoperative cardiovascular complications in this population. METHODS: SASOS and ASOS were both prospective, observational cohort studies that collected data over 1 week in each participating centre. The primary outcome was in-hospital postoperative complications, which included prespecified and defined cardiovascular complications. We defined the cardiovascular disease burden of patients aged ≥45 years presenting for surgery (main objective), determined the relative risk of developing postoperative cardiovascular complications (secondary objective) and assessed the utility of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) for preoperative cardiovascular risk stratification of elective, non-cardiac surgical patients in Africa (third objective). RESULTS: The primary outcome analysis of 3 045 patients showed that patients with major cardiac complications were significantly older, with a higher prevalence of hypertension, coronary artery disease or congestive cardiac failure, and had undergone major surgery. In-hospital mortality for the cohort was 1.2%. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial burden of cardiovascular disease in patients presenting for non-cardiac surgery in Africa is shown in the principal findings of this study. The RCRI has moderate discrimination for major cardiac complications and major adverse cardiac events in African patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

Functional decline after major elective non-cardiac surgery: a multicentre prospective cohort study.

Self-reported postoperative functional recovery is an important patient-centred outcome that is rarely measured or considered in research and decision-making. We conducted a secondary analysis of the measurement of exercise tolerance before surgery (METS) study for associations of peri-operative variables with functional decline after major non-cardiac surgery. Patients who were at least 40 years old, had or were at risk of, coronary artery disease and who were scheduled for non-cardiac surgery were recruited. Primary outcome was a reduction in mobility, self-care or ability to conduct usual activities (EuroQol 5 dimension) from before surgery to 30 days and 1 year after surgery. A decline in at least one function was reported by 523/1309 (40%) participants at 30 days and 320/1309 (24%) participants at 1 year. Participants who reported higher pre-operative Duke Activity Status indices more often reported functional decline 30 days after surgery and less often reported functional decline 1 year after surgery. The odds ratios (95%CI) of functional decline 30 days and 1 year after surgery with moderate or severe postoperative complications were 1.46 (1.02-2.09), p = 0.037 and 1.44 (0.98-2.13), p = 0.066. Discrimination of participants who reported functional decline 30 days and 1 year after surgery were poor (c-statistic 0.61 and 0.63, respectively). In summary, one quarter of participants reported functional decline up to one postoperative year.

Mortality after surgery with SARS-CoV-2 infection in England: a population-wide epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has heavily impacted elective and emergency surgery around the world. We aimed to confirm the incidence of perioperative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and associated mortality after surgery. METHODS: Analysis of routine electronic health record data from NHS hospitals in England. We extracted data from Hospital Episode Statistics in England describing adult patients undergoing surgery between January 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021. The exposure was SARS-CoV-2 infection defined by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. The primary outcome measure was 90 day in-hospital mortality. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Index of Multiple Deprivation, presence of cancer, surgical procedure type and admission acuity. Results are presented as n (%) and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We identified 2 666 978 patients undergoing surgery of whom 28 777 (1.1%) had SARS-CoV-2 infection. In total, 26 364 (1.0%) patients died in hospital. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a much greater risk of death (SARS-CoV-2: 6153/28 777 [21.4%] vs no SARS-CoV-2: 20 211/2 638 201 [0.8%]; OR=5.7 [95% CI, 5.5-5.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing elective surgery, 2412/1 857 586 (0.1%) had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 172/2412 (7.1%) died, compared with 1414/1 857 586 (0.1%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=25.8 [95% CI, 21.7-30.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing emergency surgery, 22 918/582 292 (3.9%) patients had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 5752/22 918 (25.1%) died, compared with 18 060/559 374 (3.4%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=5.5 [95% CI, 5.3-5.7]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The low incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHS surgical pathways suggests current infection prevention and control policies are highly effective. However, the high mortality amongst patients with SARS-CoV-2 suggests these precautions cannot be safely relaxed.

Postoperative infection and mortality following elective surgery in the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS).

BACKGROUND: Postoperative infection is one of the most frequent and important complications after surgery. The epidemiology of infection following elective surgery remains poorly described. METHODS: This was a prospective analysis of the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS) describing infection by 30 days after elective surgery. Associations between postoperative infection (primary outcome) and baseline demographic, surgical, and anaesthetic risk factors were assessed. Analyses were carried out using logistic and linear regression models. Secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and duration of hospital stay. Treatments received by patients after different types of infection were evaluated. RESULTS: Some 44 814 patients were included in the analysis, with a total of 4032 infections occurring in 2927 patients (6.5 per cent). Overall, 206 patients died, of whom 99 of 2927 (3.4 per cent) had infection. Some 737 of 4032 infections (18.3 per cent) were severe; the most frequent types were superficial surgical-site infection (1320, 32.7 per cent), pneumonia (708, 17.6 per cent), and urinary tract infection (681, 16.9 per cent). Excluding missing data, antimicrobials were used in 2126 of 2749 infections (77.3 per cent), and 522 of 2164 patients (24.1 per cent) required admission to critical care. Factors associated with an increased incidence of infection in adjusted analyses were: age, male sex, ASA grade, co-morbid disease, preoperative anaemia, anaesthetic technique, surgical category, surgical severity, and cancer surgery. Infection significantly increased the risk of death (odds ratio 4.68, 95 per cent c.i. 3.39 to 6.47; P < 0.001), and duration of hospital stay by on average 6.45 (6.23 to 6.66) days (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Infection is a common complication after elective surgery. Recognition of modifiable risk factors will help inform appropriate prevention strategies.

Resource requirements for reintroducing elective surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic: modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 response required the cancellation of all but the most urgent surgical procedures. The number of cancelled surgical procedures owing to Covid-19, and the reintroduction of surgical acivirt, was modelled. METHODS: This was a modelling study using Hospital Episode Statistics data (2014-2019). Surgical procedures were grouped into four urgency classes. Expected numbers of surgical procedures performed between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021 were modelled. Procedure deficit was estimated using conservative assumptions and the gradual reintroduction of elective surgery from the 1 June 2020. Costs were calculated using NHS reference costs and are reported as millions or billions of euros. Estimates are reported with 95 per cent confidence intervals. RESULTS: A total of 4 547 534 (95 per cent c.i. 3 318 195 to 6 250 771) patients with a pooled mean age of 53.5 years were expected to undergo surgery between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021. By 31 May 2020, 749 247 (513 564 to 1 077 448) surgical procedures had been cancelled. Assuming that elective surgery is reintroduced gradually, 2 328 193 (1 483 834 - 3 450 043) patients will be awaiting surgery by 28 February 2021. The cost of delayed procedures is €5.3 (3.1 to 8.0) billion. Safe delivery of surgery during the pandemic will require substantial extra resources costing €526.8 (449.3 to 633.9) million. CONCLUSION: As a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, provision of elective surgery will be delayed and associated with increased healthcare costs.

Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality from the South African Cohort of the African Surgical Outcomes Study.

BACKGROUND: Data on the factors that influence mortality after surgery in South Africa are scarce, and neither these data nor data on risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality after surgery are routinely collected. Predictors related to the context or setting of surgical care delivery may also provide insight into variation in practice. Variation must be addressed when planning for improvement of risk-adjusted outcomes. Our objective was to identify the factors predicting in-hospital mortality after surgery in South Africa from available data. METHODS: A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify predictors of 30-day in-hospital mortality in surgical patients in South Africa. Data from the South African contribution to the African Surgical Outcomes Study were used and included 3800 cases from 51 hospitals. A forward stepwise regression technique was then employed to select for possible predictors prior to model specification. Model performance was evaluated by assessing calibration and discrimination. The South African Surgical Outcomes Study cohort was used to validate the model. RESULTS: Variables found to predict 30-day in-hospital mortality were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status category, urgent or emergent surgery, major surgery, and gastrointestinal-, head and neck-, thoracic- and neurosurgery. The area under the receiver operating curve or c-statistic was 0.859 (95% confidence interval: 0.827-0.892) for the full model. Calibration, as assessed using a calibration plot, was acceptable. Performance was similar in the validation cohort as compared to the derivation cohort. CONCLUSION: The prediction model did not include factors that can explain how the context of care influences post-operative mortality in South Africa. It does, however, provide a basis for reporting risk-adjusted perioperative mortality rate in the future, and identifies the types of surgery to be prioritised in quality improvement projects at a local or national level.

Age of patients undergoing surgery.

BACKGROUND: Advancing age is independently associated with poor postoperative outcomes. The ageing of the general population is a major concern for healthcare providers. Trends in age were studied among patients undergoing surgery in the National Health Service in England. METHODS: Time trend ecological analysis was undertaken of Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics data for England from 1999 to 2015. The proportion of patients undergoing surgery in different age groupings, their pooled mean age, and change in age profile over time were calculated. Growth in the surgical population was estimated, with associated costs, to the year 2030 by use of linear regression modelling. RESULTS: Some 68 205 695 surgical patient episodes (31 220 341 men, 45·8 per cent) were identified. The mean duration of hospital stay was 5·3 days. The surgical population was older than the general population of England; this gap increased over time (1999: 47·5 versus 38·3 years; 2015: 54·2 versus 39·7 years). The number of people aged 75 years or more undergoing surgery increased from 544 998 (14·9 per cent of that age group) in 1999 to 1 012 517 (22·9 per cent) in 2015. By 2030, it is estimated that one-fifth of the 75 years and older age category will undergo surgery each year (1·49 (95 per cent c.i. 1·43 to 1·55) million people), at a cost of €3·2 (3·1 to 3·5) billion. CONCLUSION: The population having surgery in England is ageing at a faster rate than the general population. Healthcare policies must adapt to ensure that provision of surgical treatments remains safe and sustainable.

Preoperative systemic inflammation and perioperative myocardial injury: prospective observational multicentre cohort study of patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammation is pivotal in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. As inflammation can directly cause cardiomyocyte injury, we hypothesised that established systemic inflammation, as reflected by elevated preoperative neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >4, predisposes patients to perioperative myocardial injury. METHODS: We prospectively recruited 1652 patients aged ≥45 yr who underwent non-cardiac surgery in two UK centres. Serum high sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) concentrations were measured on the first three postoperative days. Clinicians and investigators were blinded to the troponin results. The primary outcome was perioperative myocardial injury, defined as hsTnT≥14 ng L-1 within 3 days after surgery. We assessed whether myocardial injury was associated with preoperative NLR>4, activated reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation in circulating monocytes, or both. Multivariable logistic regression analysis explored associations between age, sex, NLR, Revised Cardiac Risk Index, individual leukocyte subsets, and myocardial injury. Flow cytometric quantification of ROS was done in 21 patients. Data are presented as n (%) or odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Preoperative NLR>4 was present in 239/1652 (14.5%) patients. Myocardial injury occurred in 405/1652 (24.5%) patients and was more common in patients with preoperative NLR>4 [OR: 2.56 (1.92-3.41); P<0.0001]. Myocardial injury was independently associated with lower absolute preoperative lymphocyte count [OR 1.80 (1.50-2.17); P<0.0001] and higher absolute preoperative monocyte count [OR 1.93 (1.12-3.30); P=0.017]. Monocyte ROS generation correlated with NLR (r=0.47; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative NLR>4 is associated with perioperative myocardial injury, independent of conventional risk factors. Systemic inflammation may contribute to the development of perioperative myocardial injury. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01842568.

Cardiac vagal dysfunction and myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery: a planned secondary analysis of the measurement of Exercise Tolerance before surgery study.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of perioperative myocardial injury is poorly understood and not clearly linked to pre-existing cardiovascular disease. We hypothesised that loss of cardioprotective vagal tone [defined by impaired heart rate recovery ≤12 beats min-1 (HRR ≤12) 1 min after cessation of preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing] was associated with perioperative myocardial injury. METHODS: We conducted a pre-defined, secondary analysis of a multi-centre prospective cohort study of preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Participants were aged ≥40 yr undergoing non-cardiac surgery. The exposure was impaired HRR (HRR≤12). The primary outcome was postoperative myocardial injury, defined by serum troponin concentration within 72 h after surgery. The analysis accounted for established markers of cardiac risk [Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT pro-BNP)]. RESULTS: A total of 1326 participants were included [mean age (standard deviation), 64 (10) yr], of whom 816 (61.5%) were male. HRR≤12 occurred in 548 patients (41.3%). Myocardial injury was more frequent amongst patients with HRR≤12 [85/548 (15.5%) vs HRR>12: 83/778 (10.7%); odds ratio (OR), 1.50 (1.08-2.08); P=0.016, adjusted for RCRI). HRR declined progressively in patients with increasing numbers of RCRI factors. Patients with ≥3 RCRI factors were more likely to have HRR≤12 [26/36 (72.2%) vs 0 factors: 167/419 (39.9%); OR, 3.92 (1.84-8.34); P<0.001]. NT pro-BNP greater than a standard prognostic threshold (>300 pg ml-1) was more frequent in patients with HRR≤12 [96/529 (18.1%) vs HRR>12 59/745 (7.9%); OR, 2.58 (1.82-3.64); P<0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: Impaired HRR is associated with an increased risk of perioperative cardiac injury. These data suggest a mechanistic role for cardiac vagal dysfunction in promoting perioperative myocardial injury.

Using the 6-minute walk test to predict disability-free survival after major surgery.

BACKGROUND: The 6-min walk test (6MWT) is a common means of functional assessment. Its relationship to disability-free survival (DFS) is uncertain. METHODS: This sub-study of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance for Surgery study had co-primary outcome measures: correlation of the preoperative 6MWT distance with 30 day quality of recovery (15-item quality of recovery) and 12 month WHO Disability Assessment Schedule scores. The prognostic utility of the 6MWT and other risk assessment tools for 12 month DFS was assessed with logistic regression and receiver-operating-characteristic-curve analysis. RESULTS: Of 574 patients recruited, 567 (99%) completed the 6MWT. Twelve months after surgery, 16 (2.9%) patients had died and 444 (77%) had DFS. The 6MWT correlated weakly with 30 day 15-item quality of recovery (ρ=0.14; P=0.001) and 12 month WHO Disability Assessment Schedule (ρ=-0.23; P<0.0005) scores. When the cohort was split into 6MWT distance tertiles, the adjusted odds ratio of low vs high tertiles for DFS was 3.13 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.54-6.35]. The only independent variable predictive of DFS was the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) score (adjusted odds ratio: 1.06; P<0.0005). The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve for DFS was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.57-0.70) for the 6MWT, 0.60 (95% CI: 0.53-0.67) for cardiopulmonary-exercise-testing-derived peak oxygen consumption, and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.64-0.76) for the DASI score. CONCLUSIONS: Of the risk assessment tools analysed, the DASI was the most predictive of DFS. The 6MWT was safe and comparable with cardiopulmonary exercise testing for all predictive assessments. Future research should aim to determine the optimal 6MWT distance thresholds for risk prediction.

Correction to: Improving care at scale: process evaluation of a multi-component quality improvement intervention to reduce mortality after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH trial).

Following the publication of this article [1], the authors reported a number of errors which are given below.

Improving care at scale: process evaluation of a multi-component quality improvement intervention to reduce mortality after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH trial).

BACKGROUND: Improving the quality and safety of perioperative care is a global priority. The Enhanced Peri-Operative Care for High-risk patients (EPOCH) trial was a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial of a quality improvement (QI) programme to improve 90-day survival for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery in 93 hospitals in the UK National Health Service. METHODS: The aim of this process evaluation is to describe how the EPOCH intervention was planned, delivered and received, at both cluster and local hospital levels. The QI programme comprised of two interventions: a care pathway and a QI intervention to aid pathway implementation, focussed on stakeholder engagement, QI teamwork, data analysis and feedback and applying the model for improvement. Face-to-face training and online resources were provided to support senior clinicians in each hospital (QI leads) to lead improvement. For this evaluation, we collated programme activity data, administered an exit questionnaire to QI leads and collected ethnographic data in six hospitals. Qualitative data were analysed with thematic or comparative analysis; quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The EPOCH trial did not demonstrate any improvement in survival or length of hospital stay. Whilst the QI programme was delivered as planned at the cluster level, self-assessed intervention fidelity at the hospital level was variable. Seventy-seven of 93 hospitals responded to the exit questionnaire (60 from a single QI lead response on behalf of the team); 33 respondents described following the QI intervention closely (35%) and there were only 11 of 37 care pathway processes that > 50% of respondents reported attempting to improve. Analysis of qualitative data suggests QI leads were often attempting to deliver the intervention in challenging contexts: the social aspects of change such as engaging colleagues were identified as important but often difficult and clinicians frequently attempted to lead change with limited time or organisational resources. CONCLUSIONS: Significant organisational challenges faced by QI leads shaped their choice of pathway components to focus on and implementation approaches taken. Adaptation causing loss of intervention fidelity was therefore due to rational choices made by those implementing change within constrained contexts. Future large-scale QI programmes will need to focus on dedicating local time and resources to improvement as well as on training to develop QI capabilities. EPOCH TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN80682973 https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN80682973 Registered 27 February 2014 and Lancet protocol 13PRT/7655.

Association of preoperative anaemia with postoperative morbidity and mortality: an observational cohort study in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia is associated with poor postoperative outcomes, but few studies have described the impact of preoperative anaemia in low- and middle- (LMICs), and high-income countries (HICs). METHODS: This was a planned analysis of data collected during an international 7 day cohort study of adults undergoing elective inpatient surgery. The primary outcome was in-hospital death, and the secondary outcomes were in-hospital complications. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin <12 g dl-1 for females and <13 g dl-1 for males. Hierarchical three-level mixed-effect logistic regression models were constructed to examine the associations between preoperative anaemia and outcomes. RESULTS: We included 38 770 patients from 474 hospitals in 27 countries of whom 11 675 (30.1%) were anaemic. Of these, 6886 (17.8%) patients suffered a complication and 198 (0.5%) died. Patients from LMICs were younger with lower ASA physical status scores, but a similar prevalence of anaemia [LMIC: 5072 (32.5%) of 15 585 vs HIC: 6603 (28.5%) of 23 185]. Patients with moderate [odds ratio (OR): 2.70; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.88-3.87] and severe anaemia (OR: 4.09; 95% CI: 1.90-8.81) were at an increased risk of death in both HIC and LMICs. Complication rates increased with the severity of anaemia. Compared with patients in LMICs, those in HICs experienced fewer complications after an interaction term analysis [LMIC (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) vs HIC (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.84-0.87); P<0.01]. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of patients undergoing elective surgery are anaemic. These patients have an increased risk of complications and death. The prevalence of anaemia is similar amongst patients in LMICs despite their younger age and lower risk profile. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN51817007.

The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications.

BACKGROUND: The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications. METHODS: ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. RESULTS: The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784. CONCLUSIONS: This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03044899.

Arterial pulse pressure and postoperative morbidity in high-risk surgical patients.

BACKGROUND: Systemic arterial pulse pressure (systolic minus diastolic pressure) ≤53 mm Hg in patients with cardiac failure is correlated with reduced stroke volume and is independently associated with accelerated morbidity and mortality. Given that deconditioned surgical and heart failure patients share similar cardiopulmonary physiology, we examined whether lower pulse pressure is associated with excess morbidity after major surgery. METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study of patients deemed by their preoperative assessors to be at higher risk of postoperative morbidity. Preoperative pulse pressure was calculated before cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The primary outcome was any morbidity (PostOperative Morbidity Survey) occurring within 5 days of surgery, stratified by pulse pressure threshold ≤53 mm Hg. The relationship between pulse pressure, postoperative morbidity, and oxygen pulse (a robust surrogate for left ventricular stroke volume) was examined using logistic regression analysis (accounting for age, sex, BMI, cardiometabolic co-morbidity, and operation type). RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in 578/660 (87.6%) patients, but postoperative morbidity was more common in 243/ 660 patients with preoperative pulse pressure ≤53 mm Hg{odds ratio (OR): 2.24 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-3.38]; P<0.001). Pulse pressure ≤53 mm Hg [OR:1.23 (95% CI: 1.03-1.46); P=0.02] and type of surgery were independently associated with all-cause postoperative morbidity (multivariate analysis). Oxygen pulse <90% of population-predicted normal values was associated with pulse pressure ≤ 53 mm Hg [OR: 1.93 (95% CI: 1.32-2.84); P=0.007]. CONCLUSIONS: In deconditioned surgical patients, lower preoperative systemic arterial pulse pressure is associated with excess morbidity. These data are strikingly similar to meta-analyses identifying low pulse pressure as an independent risk factor for adverse outcomes in cardiac failure. Low preoperative pulse pressure is a readily available measure, indicating that detailed physiological assessment may be warranted. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCT registry, ISRCTN88456378.

The surgical safety checklist and patient outcomes after surgery: a prospective observational cohort study, systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The surgical safety checklist is widely used to improve the quality of perioperative care. However, clinicians continue to debate the clinical effectiveness of this tool. METHODS: Prospective analysis of data from the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), an international observational study of elective in-patient surgery, accompanied by a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature. The exposure was surgical safety checklist use. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and the secondary outcome was postoperative complications. In the ISOS cohort, a multivariable multi-level generalized linear model was used to test associations. To further contextualise these findings, we included the results from the ISOS cohort in a meta-analysis. Results are reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: We included 44 814 patients from 497 hospitals in 27 countries in the ISOS analysis. There were 40 245 (89.8%) patients exposed to the checklist, whilst 7508 (16.8%) sustained ≥1 postoperative complications and 207 (0.5%) died before hospital discharge. Checklist exposure was associated with reduced mortality [odds ratio (OR) 0.49 (0.32-0.77); P<0.01], but no difference in complication rates [OR 1.02 (0.88-1.19); P=0.75]. In a systematic review, we screened 3732 records and identified 11 eligible studies of 453 292 patients including the ISOS cohort. Checklist exposure was associated with both reduced postoperative mortality [OR 0.75 (0.62-0.92); P<0.01; I2=87%] and reduced complication rates [OR 0.73 (0.61-0.88); P<0.01; I2=89%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients exposed to a surgical safety checklist experience better postoperative outcomes, but this could simply reflect wider quality of care in hospitals where checklist use is routine.

Are we close to the ideal intravenous fluid?

The approach to i.v. fluid therapy for hypovolaemia may significantly influence outcomes for patients who experience a systemic inflammatory response after sepsis, trauma, or major surgery. Currently, there is no single i.v. fluid agent that meets all the criteria for the ideal treatment for hypovolaemia. The physician must choose the best available agent(s) for each patient, and then decide when and how much to administer. Findings from large randomized trials suggest that some colloid-based fluids, particularly starch-based colloids, may be harmful in some situations, but it is unclear whether they should be withdrawn from use completely. Meanwhile, crystalloid fluids, such as saline 0.9% and Ringer's lactate, are more frequently used, but debate continues over which preparation is preferable. Perhaps most importantly, it remains unclear how to select the optimal dose of fluid in different patients and different clinical scenarios. There is good reason to believe that both inadequate and excessive i.v. fluid administration may lead to poor outcomes, including increased risk of infection and organ dysfunction, for hypovolaemic patients. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on this topic and identify some key pitfalls and some areas of agreed best practice.

Elevated preoperative heart rate is associated with cardiopulmonary and autonomic impairment in high-risk surgical patients.

BACKGROUND: Elevated preoperative heart rate (HR) is associated with perioperative myocardial injury and death. In apparently healthy individuals, high resting HR is associated with development of cardiac failure. Given that patients with overt cardiac failure have poor perioperative outcomes, we hypothesized that subclinical cardiac failure, identified by cardiopulmonary exercise testing, was associated with elevated preoperative HR > 87 beats min -1 (HR > 87). METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of an observational cohort study of surgical patients aged ≥45 yr. The exposure of interest was HR > 87, recorded at rest before preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The predefined outcome measures were the following established predictors of mortality in patients with overt cardiac failure in the general population: ventilatory equivalent for carbon dioxide ( V˙E/V˙co2 ) ratio ≥34, heart rate recovery ≤6 and peak oxygen uptake ( V˙o2 ) ≤14 ml kg -1  min -1 . We used logistic regression analysis to test for association between HR > 87 and markers of cardiac failure. We also examined the relationship between HR > 87 and preoperative left ventricular stroke volume in a separate cohort of patients. RESULTS: HR > 87 was present in 399/1250 (32%) patients, of whom 438/1250 (35%) had V˙E/V˙co2 ratio ≥34, 200/1250 (16%) had heart rate recovery ≤6, and 396/1250 (32%) had peak V˙o2 ≤14 ml kg -1  min -1 . HR > 87 was independently associated with peak V˙o2 ≤14 ml kg -1  min -1 {odds ratio (OR) 1.69 [1.12-3.55]; P =0.01} and heart rate recovery ≤6 (OR 2.02 [1.30-3.14]; P <0.01). However, HR > 87 was not associated with V˙E/V˙co2 ratio ≥34 (OR 1.31 [0.92-1.87]; P =0.14). In a separate cohort, HR > 87 (33/181; 18.5%) was associated with impaired preoperative stroke volume (OR 3.21 [1.26-8.20]; P =0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated preoperative heart rate is associated with impaired cardiopulmonary performance consistent with clinically unsuspected, subclinical cardiac failure. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN88456378.

Association between preoperative pulse pressure and perioperative myocardial injury: an international observational cohort study of patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: The management of elevated blood pressure before non-cardiac surgery remains controversial. Pulse pressure is a stronger predictor of cardiovascular morbidity in the general population than systolic blood pressure alone. We hypothesized that preoperative pulse pressure was associated with perioperative myocardial injury. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of the Vascular Events in Non-cardiac Surgery Patients Cohort Evaluation (VISION) international cohort study. Participants were aged ≥45 yr and undergoing non-cardiac surgery at 12 hospitals in eight countries. The primary outcome was myocardial injury, defined using serum troponin concentration, within 30 days after surgery. The sample was stratified into quintiles by preoperative pulse pressure. Multivariable logistic regression analysis explored associations between pulse pressure and myocardial injury. We accounted for potential confounding by systolic blood pressure and other co-morbidities known to be associated with postoperative cardiovascular complications. RESULTS: One thousand one hundred and ninety-one of 15 057 (7.9%) patients sustained myocardial injury, which was more frequent amongst patients in the highest two preoperative pulse pressure quintiles {63-75 mm Hg, risk ratio (RR) 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.28], P =0.03; >75 mm Hg, RR 1.15 [95% CI: 1.03-1.29], P =0.02}. After adjustment for systolic blood pressure, preoperative pulse pressure remained the dominant predictor of myocardial injury (63-75 mm Hg, RR 1.20 [95% CI: 1.05-1.37], P <0.01; >75 mm Hg, RR 1.25 [95% CI: 1.06-1.48], P <0.01). Systolic blood pressure >160 mm Hg was not associated with myocardial injury in the absence of pulse pressure >62 mm Hg (RR 0.67 [95% CI: 0.30-1.44], P =0.31). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative pulse pressure >62 mm Hg was associated with myocardial injury, independent of systolic blood pressure. Elevated pulse pressure may be a useful clinical sign to guide strategies to reduce perioperative myocardial injury.

In-hospital clinical outcomes after upper gastrointestinal surgery: Data from an international observational study.

AIMS: Previous research suggests that patients undergoing upper gastrointestinal surgery are at high risk of poor postoperative outcomes. The aim of our study was to describe patient outcomes after elective upper gastrointestinal surgery at a global level. METHODS: Prospective analysis of data collected during an international seven-day cohort study of 474 hospitals in 27 countries. Patients undergoing elective upper gastrointestinal surgery were recruited. Outcome measures were in-hospital complications and mortality at 30-days. Results are presented as n(%) and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: 2139 patients were included, of whom 498 (23.2%) developed one or more postoperative complications, with 30 deaths (1.4%). Patients with complications had longer median hospital stay 11 (6-18) days vs. 5 (2-10) days. Infectious complications were most frequent, affecting 368 (17.2%) patients. 328 (15.3%) patients were admitted to critical care postoperatively, of whom 161 (49.1%) developed a complication with 14 deaths (4.3%). In a multivariable logistic regression model we identified age (OR 1.02 [1.01-1.03]), American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status III (OR 2.12 [1.44-3.16]) and IV (OR 3.23 [1.72-6.09]), surgery for cancer (OR 1.63 [1.27-2.11]), open procedure (OR 1.40 [1.10-1.78]), intermediate surgery (OR 1.75 [1.12-2.81]) and major surgery (OR 2.65 [1.72-4.23]) as independent risk factors for postoperative complications. Patients undergoing major surgery for upper gastrointestinal cancer experienced twice the rate of complications compared to those undergoing other procedures (224/578 patients [38.8%] versus 274/1561 patients [17.6%]). CONCLUSIONS: Complications and death are common after upper gastrointestinal surgery. Patients undergoing major surgery for cancer are at greatest risk.