Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. METHODS: To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. RESULTS: Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking.

Impacto sanitario de la prohibición total de publicidades de tabaco en argentina.

Health impact of the total ban on advertising of tobacco productsThe objective was to estimate the health impact of the total ban on advertising of tobacco products in terms of avoided cardiovascular events in those over 35 years of age in Argentina.The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM) was used, which is a Markov simulation model used to represent and project mortality and morbidity due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the population aged 35 or over. It constitutes a demographic-epidemiological model, which represents the population between 35 and 95 years of age and uses a logistic regression model based on the Framingham equation to estimate the annual incidence of cardiovascular disease. We assumed that implementing a complete ban on the advertising of tobacco products would lead to a 9% reduction in tobacco consumption.The complete ban on advertising could prevent 15,164 deaths over a period of 10 years, of which 2610 would be the result of coronary heart disease and 747 due to stroke. These reductions would mean an annual decrease of 0.46% of total deaths, 0.60% of deaths from coronary heart disease and 0.33% in deaths from stroke. In addition, during the same period, it would avoid 6630 acute myocardial infarctions and 2851 strokes (reductions of 1.35% and 0.40%, respectively).We hope that these findings might contribute to the strengthening of sanitary tobacco control policies in Argentina based on the remarkable benefits of banning the advertising of tobacco products in full and in line with current global recommendations.

Association of Low Socioeconomic Status With Premature Coronary Heart Disease in US Adults.

Importance: Individuals with low socioeconomic status (SES) bear a disproportionate share of the coronary heart disease (CHD) burden, and CHD remains the leading cause of mortality in low-income US counties. Objective: To estimate the excess CHD burden among individuals in the United States with low SES and the proportions attributable to traditional risk factors and to other factors associated with low SES. Design, Setting, and Participants: This computer simulation study used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a model of CHD and stroke incidence, prevalence, and mortality among adults in the United States, to project the excess burden of early CHD. The proportion of this excess burden attributable to traditional CHD risk factors (smoking, high blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, type 2 diabetes, and high body mass index) compared with the proportion attributable to other risk factors associated with low SES was estimated. Model inputs were derived from nationally representative US data and cohort studies of incident CHD. All US adults aged 35 to 64 years, stratified by SES, were included in the simulations. Exposures: Low SES was defined as income below 150% of the federal poverty level or educational level less than a high school diploma. Main Outcomes and Measures: Premature (before age 65 years) myocardial infarction (MI) rates and CHD deaths. Results: Approximately 31.2 million US adults aged 35 to 64 years had low SES, of whom approximately 16 million (51.3%) were women. Compared with individuals with higher SES, both men and women in the low-SES group had double the rate of MIs (men: 34.8 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 31.0-38.8] vs 17.6 [95% UI, 16.0-18.6]; women: 15.1 [95% UI, 13.4-16.9] vs 6.8 [95% UI, 6.3-7.4]) and CHD deaths (men: 14.3 [95% UI, 13.0-15.7] vs 7.6 [95% UI, 7.3-7.9]; women: 5.6 [95% UI, 5.0-6.2] vs 2.5 [95% UI, 2.3-2.6]) per 10 000 person-years. A higher burden of traditional CHD risk factors in adults with low SES explained 40% of these excess events; the remaining 60% of these events were attributable to other factors associated with low SES. Among a simulated cohort of 1.3 million adults with low SES who were 35 years old in 2015, the model projected that 250 000 individuals (19%) will develop CHD by age 65 years, with 119 000 (48%) of these CHD cases occurring in excess of those expected for individuals with higher SES. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggested that, for approximately one-quarter of US adults aged 35 to 64 years, low SES was substantially associated with early CHD burden. Although biomedical interventions to modify traditional risk factors may decrease the disease burden, disparities by SES may remain without addressing SES itself.

Actualización del modelo de políticas en enfermedad cardiovascular en Argentina / Update of the cardiovascular disease policy model to predict cardiovascular events in Argentina

La enfermedad cardiovascular (ECV) es la principal causa de muerte en Argentina. Los modelos de simulació;n por computadora permiten extrapolar evidencia a poblaciones más amplias que las originalmente estudiadas, a lo largo de períodos prolongados, y comparar diferentes subpoblaciones. El Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM, por sus siglas en ingló;©s) es un modelo de simulació;n utilizado para representar y proyectar la mortalidad y morbilidad por ECV en la població;n de 35 o más aó;±os. El objetivo de este trabajo fue actualizar la versió;n argentina del CVDPM. Para esto, se utilizó; informació;n del Censo Nacional 2010, la Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo 2013, el estudio CESCAS I, y el estudio PrEViSTA, para actualizar la dinámica del tamaó;±o de la població;n, sus características demográficas, y la distribució;n de factores de riesgo cardiovasculares a lo largo del tiempo. Las proyecciones del modelo se calibraron comparándolas con informació;n sobre eventos de ECV y mortalidad en el aó;±o 2010 (aó;±o de referencia) en Argentina. Las estadísticas argentinas informaron que en 2010 la població;n de 35 o más aó;±os sufrió; un total de 41 219 infartos de miocardio (IM), 58 658 accidentes cerebrovasculares y 281 710 muertes totales. El CVDPM predijo 41 265 IM (diferencia: 0.11%), 58 584 accidentes cerebrovasculares (diferencia: 0.13%) y 280 707 muertes totales (diferencia: 0.36%). En todos los casos, la versió;n final del modelo predijo el nó;ºmero real de eventos cardiovasculares con una precisió;n superior al 99.5%, pudiendo ser utilizado para pronosticar cambios en la incidencia y mortalidad de ECV debidos de la implementació;n de políticas pó;ºblicas.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Argentina. Computer simulation models allow to extrapolate evidence to broader populations than the originally studied, over longer timeframes, and to compare different subpopulations. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM) is a computer simulation state transition model used to represent and project future CVD mortality and morbidity in the population 35 years-old and older. The objective of this study was to update Argentina’s version of the CVDPM. For this purpose, information from the 2010 National Census, the 2013 National Risk Factor Survey, CESCAS I study, and PrEViSTA study were used to update the dynamics of population size, demographics, and CVD risk factor distributions over time. Model projections were later calibrated by comparing them to actual data on CVD events and mortality in the year 2010 (baseline year) in Argentina. Country statistics for people 35 years-old and older reported for 2010 a total of 41 219 myocardial infarctions (MIs), 58 658 strokes, and 281 710 total deaths. The CVDPM, in turn, predicted 41 265 MIs (difference: 0.11%), 58 584 strokes (difference: 0.13%), and 280 707 total deaths (difference: 0.36%) in the same population. In all cases, the final version of the model predicted the actual number of events with an accuracy superior to 99.5%, and could be used to forecast the changes in CVD incidence and mortality after the implementation of public policies.

Update of the cardiovascular disease policy model to predict cardiovascular events in Argentina

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Argentina. Computer simulation models allow to extrapolate evidence to broader populations than the originally studied, over longer timeframes, and to compare different subpopulations. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM) is a computer simulation state transition model used to represent and project future CVD mortality and morbidity in the population 35 years-old and older. The objective of this study was to update Argentina’s version of the CVDPM. For this purpose, information from the 2010 National Census, the 2013 National Risk Factor Survey, CESCAS I study, and PrEViSTA study were used to update the dynamics of population size, demographics, and CVD risk factor distributions over time. Model projections were later calibrated by comparing them to actual data on CVD events and mortality in the year 2010 (baseline year) in Argentina. Country statistics for people 35 years-old and older reported for 2010 a total of 41 219 myocardial infarctions (MIs), 58 658 strokes, and 281 710 total deaths. The CVDPM, in turn, predicted 41 265 MIs (difference: 0.11%), 58 584 strokes (difference: 0.13%), and 280 707 total deaths (difference: 0.36%) in the same population. In all cases, the final version of the model predicted the actual number of events with an accuracy superior to 99.5%, and could be used to forecast the changes in CVD incidence and mortality after the implementation of public policies.

La enfermedad cardiovascular (ECV) es la principal causa de muerte en Argentina. Los modelos de simulació;n por computadora permiten extrapolar evidencia a poblaciones más amplias que las originalmente estudiadas, a lo largo de períodos prolongados, y comparar diferentes subpoblaciones. El Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM, por sus siglas en ingló;©s) es un modelo de simulació;n utilizado para representar y proyectar la mortalidad y morbilidad por ECV en la població;n de 35 o más aó;±os. El objetivo de este trabajo fue actualizar la versió;n argentina del CVDPM. Para esto, se utilizó; informació;n del Censo Nacional 2010, la Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo 2013, el estudio CESCAS I, y el estudio PrEViSTA, para actualizar la dinámica del tamaó;±o de la població;n, sus características demográficas, y la distribució;n de factores de riesgo cardiovasculares a lo largo del tiempo. Las proyecciones del modelo se calibraron comparándolas con informació;n sobre eventos de ECV y mortalidad en el aó;±o 2010 (aó;±o de referencia) en Argentina. Las estadísticas argentinas informaron que en 2010 la població;n de 35 o más aó;±os sufrió; un total de 41 219 infartos de miocardio (IM), 58 658 accidentes cerebrovasculares y 281 710 muertes totales. El CVDPM predijo 41 265 IM (diferencia: 0.11%), 58 584 accidentes cerebrovasculares (diferencia: 0.13%) y 280 707 muertes totales (diferencia: 0.36%). En todos los casos, la versió;n final del modelo predijo el nó;ºmero real de eventos cardiovasculares con una precisió;n superior al 99.5%, pudiendo ser utilizado para pronosticar cambios en la incidencia y mortalidad de ECV debidos de la implementació;n de políticas pó;ºblicas.

Economic Impact of Financial Incentives and Mailing Nicotine Patches to Help Medicaid Smokers Quit Smoking: A Cost-Benefit Analysis.

An RCT designed to increase Medicaid smokers' quitting success was conducted in California during 2012-2013. In the trial, alternative cessation treatment strategies were embedded in the state's ongoing quitline services. It found that modest financial incentives of up to $60 per participant and sending nicotine patches induced significantly higher cessation rates compared with usual care alone and usual care plus nicotine patches. Building upon that study, this study assessed potential population-level costs and benefits of integrating financial incentives and nicotine patches in a quitline setting for Medicaid smokers. A cost-benefit analysis was undertaken from the Medicaid program's perspective. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model was used to simulate future healthcare expenditures over a 10-year horizon for each treatment strategy for a study cohort of California Medicaid enrollees who were aged 35-64 years in 2014 (n=2,452,000). To simulate potential population-level benefits under each treatment strategy, each treatment was applied to all active smokers in the study cohort (n=478,300). Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying key parameters, such as cessation costs, discount rate, relapse rates, and time horizon. Adding both financial incentives and nicotine patches to usual quitline care would result in $15 million net savings over 10 years, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.30 compared with the usual care plus nicotine patches strategy. It would yield $44 million net savings, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.90 compared with usual care alone. The strategy of providing financial incentives and mailing nicotine patches directly to Medicaid smokers who call the quitline is cost saving. SUPPLEMENT INFORMATION: This article is part of a supplement entitled Advancing Smoking Cessation in California's Medicaid Population, which is sponsored by the California Department of Public Health.

Cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 Inhibitor Therapy in Patients With Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia or Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

IMPORTANCE: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors were recently approved for lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and have potential for broad ASCVD prevention. Their long-term cost-effectiveness and effect on total health care spending are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors and their potential effect on US health care spending. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a simulation model of US adults aged 35 to 94 years, was used to evaluate cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors or ezetimibe in heterozygous FH or ASCVD. The model incorporated 2015 annual PCSK9 inhibitor costs of $14,350 (based on mean wholesale acquisition costs of evolocumab and alirocumab); adopted a health-system perspective, lifetime horizon; and included probabilistic sensitivity analyses to explore uncertainty. EXPOSURES: Statin therapy compared with addition of ezetimibe or PCSK9 inhibitors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Lifetime major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or stroke), incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), and total effect on US health care spending over 5 years. RESULTS: Adding PCSK9 inhibitors to statins in heterozygous FH was estimated to prevent 316,300 MACE at a cost of $503,000 per QALY gained compared with adding ezetimibe to statins (80% uncertainty interval [UI], $493,000-$1,737,000). In ASCVD, adding PCSK9 inhibitors to statins was estimated to prevent 4.3 million MACE compared with adding ezetimibe at $414,000 per QALY (80% UI, $277,000-$1,539,000). Reducing annual drug costs to $4536 per patient or less would be needed for PCSK9 inhibitors to be cost-effective at less than $100,000 per QALY. At 2015 prices, PCSK9 inhibitor use in all eligible patients was estimated to reduce cardiovascular care costs by $29 billion over 5 years, but drug costs increased by an estimated $592 billion (a 38% increase over 2015 prescription drug expenditures). In contrast, initiating statins in these high-risk populations in all statin-tolerant individuals who are not currently using statins was estimated to save $12 billion. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Assuming 2015 prices, PCSK9 inhibitor use in patients with heterozygous FH or ASCVD did not meet generally acceptable incremental cost-effectiveness thresholds and was estimated to increase US health care costs substantially. Reducing annual drug prices from more than $14,000 to $4536 would be necessary to meet a $100,000 per QALY threshold.

Smoking behaviors in a community-based cohort of HIV-infected indigent adults.

We conducted a longitudinal study of a community-based cohort of HIV-infected indigent adults to examine smoking behaviors and factors associated with quitting. We assessed "hardcore" smoking behaviors associated with a low probability of quitting. Of the 296 participants, 218 were current smokers (73.6 %). The prevalence of "hardcore" smoking was high: 59.6 % smoked ≥15 cigarettes per day, and 67.3 % were daily smokers. During the study interval, 20.6 % made at least one quit attempt. Of these, 53.3 % were abstinent at 6 months. The successful quit rate over 2 years was 4.6 %. Illegal substance use (adjusted odds ratio, AOR 0.2, 95 % CI 0.1-0.6) and smoking within 30 min of waking (AOR 0.2, 95 % CI 0.1-0.7) were associated with lower likelihood of making a quit attempt. Interventions that reduce nicotine dependence prior to smoking cessation and those that are integrated with substance use treatment may be effective for this population.

Occurrence and characteristics of chronic pain in a community-based cohort of indigent adults living with HIV infection.

UNLABELLED: Pain is common among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), but little is known about chronic pain in socioeconomically disadvantaged HIV-infected populations with high rates of substance abuse in the postantiretroviral era. This cross-sectional study describes the occurrence and characteristics of pain in a community-based cohort of 296 indigent PLWHA. Participants completed questionnaires about sociodemographics, substance use, depression, and pain. Cut-point analysis was used to generate categories of pain severity. Of the 270 participants who reported pain or the use of a pain medication in the past week, 8.2% had mild pain, 38.1% had moderate pain, and 53.7% had severe pain. Female sex and less education were associated with more severe pain. Depression was more common among participants with severe pain than among those with mild pain. Increasing pain severity was associated with daily pain and with chronic pain. Over half of the participants reported having a prescription for an opioid analgesic. Findings from this study suggest that chronic pain is a significant problem in this high risk, socioeconomically disadvantaged group of patients with HIV disease and high rates of previous or concurrent use of illicit drugs. PERSPECTIVE: This article presents epidemiological data showing that unrelieved chronic pain is a significant problem for indigent people living with HIV. Participants reported pain severity similar to those with metastatic cancer. Despite high rates of substance use disorders, approximately half received prescriptions for opioid analgesics, although few for long-acting agents.

Primary care providers' judgments of opioid analgesic misuse in a community-based cohort of HIV-infected indigent adults.

BACKGROUND: Primary care providers (PCPs) must balance treatment of chronic non-cancer pain with opioid analgesics with concerns about opioid misuse. OBJECTIVE: We co-enrolled community-based indigent adults and their PCPs to determine PCPs' accuracy of estimating opioid analgesic misuse and illicit substance use. DESIGN: Patient-provider dyad study. PARTICIPANTS: HIV-infected, community-based indigent adults ('patients') and their PCPs. MAIN MEASURES: Using structured interviews, we queried patients on use and misuse of opioid analgesics and illicit substances. PCPs completed patient- and provider-specific questionnaires. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, and measures of agreement between PCPs' judgments and patients' reports of opioid misuse and illicit substance use. We examined factors associated with PCPs' thinking that their patients had misused opioid analgesics and determined factors associated with patients' misuse. KEY RESULTS: We had 105 patient-provider dyads. Of the patients, 21 had misused opioids and 45 had used illicit substances in the past year. The sensitivity of PCPs' judgments of opioid analgesic misuse was 61.9% and specificity, 53.6% (Kappa score 0.09, p = 0.10). The sensitivity of PCPs' judgments of illicit substance use was 71.1% and specificity, 66.7% (Kappa score 0.37, p <0.001). PCPs were more likely to think that younger patients (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.89, 95% CI 0.84-0.97), African American patients (AOR 2.53, 95% CI 1.05-6.07) and those who had used illicit substances in the past year (AOR 3.33, 95% CI 1.35-8.20) had misused opioids. Younger (AOR 0.94, 95% CI 0.86-1.02) and African American (AOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.25-1.97) patients were not more likely to report misuse, whereas persons who had used illicit substances were (AOR 3.01, 95% CI 1.04-8.76). CONCLUSION: PCPs' impressions of misuse were discordant with patients' self-reports of opioid analgesic misuse. PCPs incorrectly used age and race as predictors of misuse in this high-risk cohort.