AIDE: Adaptive intrapatient dose escalation designs to accelerate Phase I clinical trials.

Designing Phase I clinical trials is challenging when accrual is slow or sample size is limited. The corresponding key question is: how to efficiently and reliably identify the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) using a sample size as small as possible? We propose model-assisted and model-based designs with adaptive intrapatient dose escalation (AIDE) to address this challenge. AIDE is adaptive in that the decision of conducting intrapatient dose escalation depends on both the patient's individual safety data, as well as other enrolled patient's safety data. When both data indicate reasonable safety, a patient may perform intrapatient dose escalation, generating toxicity data at more than one dose. This strategy not only provides patients the opportunity to receive higher potentially more effective doses, but also enables efficient statistical learning of the dose-toxicity profile of the treatment, which dramatically reduces the required sample size. Simulation studies show that the proposed designs are safe, robust, and efficient to identify the MTD with a sample size that is substantially smaller than conventional interpatient dose escalation designs. Practical considerations are provided and R code for implementing AIDE is available upon request.

Effect of Statin Use on Inflammation and Immune Activation Biomarkers in HIV-Infected Persons on Effective Antiretroviral Therapy.

Immune activation and inflammation are hallmarks of chronic HIV infection and are etiologically linked to major causes of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected persons, including coronary artery disease and cancer. Systemic immune activation is dampened, but not resolved, with use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Statins are cardioprotective drugs that also appear to have immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory properties. We sought to understand the association between statin use, cART, and levels of circulating immune markers in a longitudinal cohort study. From 2004 to 2009, statin use was ascertained in male participants of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Twenty-four circulating markers of immune activation and inflammation were measured in archived serial samples from a subset of cohort members using multiplex assays. Propensity-adjusted generalized gamma models were used to compare biomarkers' distributions by statin use, and multivariable linear regression models were used to assess the effect of initiating statin on these biomarkers. Overall, 1,031 cART-exposed individuals with HIV infection were included in this study. Statin use was reported by 31.5% of cART-exposed participants. Compared to nonstatin users on cART, statin users on cART had lower levels of IP-10, IL-10, and IL-12p70, and the effect of statin use was decreased in participants using lipophilic statins (atorvastatin, simvastatin, fluvastatin, or lovastatin); these results were statistically significant (p < .05). Among cART users not on aspirin, starting statins decreased levels of high sensitivity c-reactive protein (hsCRP), IL-12p70, and IL-6. Statin therapy is associated with reduced levels of certain biomarkers of immune activation and inflammation in cART users, which may contribute to a lower burden of disease.

Hepatitis B virus sequencing and liver fibrosis evaluation in HIV/HBV co-infected Nigerians.

OBJECTIVES: Molecular characteristics of hepatitis B virus (HBV), such as genotype and genomic mutations, may contribute to liver-related morbidity and mortality. The association of these characteristics with liver fibrosis severity in sub-Saharan Africa is uncertain. We aimed to characterise molecular HBV features in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HBV co-infected Nigerians and evaluate associations between these characteristics and liver fibrosis severity before and after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. METHODS: HIV/HBV co-infected Nigerians underwent liver fibrosis estimation by transient elastography (TE) prior to and 36 months after ART initiation. Basal core promoter/precore (BCP/PC) and preS1/preS2/S regions of HBV were sequenced from baseline plasma samples. We evaluated associations between HBV mutations and liver fibrosis severity by univariate and multivariable regression. RESULTS: At baseline, 94 patients underwent TE with median liver stiffness of 6.4 (IQR 4.7-8.7) kPa. Patients were predominantly infected with HBV genotype E (45/46) and HBe-antigen negative (75/94, 79.8%). We identified BCP A1762T/G1764A in 15/35 (43%), PC G1896A in 20/35 (57%), 'a' determinant mutations in 12/45 (26.7%) and preS2 deletions in 6/16 (37.5%). PreS2 mutations were associated with advanced fibrosis in multivariable analysis. At follow-up, median liver stiffness was 5.2 (IQR 4.1-6.6) kPa. No HBV molecular characteristics were associated with lack of fibrosis regression, although HIV virologic control, body mass index (BMI) and baseline CD4+ T-cell count were associated with a decline in fibrosis stage. CONCLUSION: Frequent BCP/PC and preS1/preS2/S mutations were found in ART-naïve HIV/HBV co-infected Nigerians. Median liver stiffness declined after initiation of ART, regardless of pre-ART HBV mutational pattern or virologic characteristics.

Optimal strategies for the diagnosis of community-onset diarrhea in solid organ transplant recipients: Less is more.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea, a common complication after solid organ transplant (SOT), is associated with allograft failure and death. No evidence-based guidelines exist for the evaluation of diarrhea in SOT recipients. We performed a cost analysis to derive a testing algorithm for the diagnosis of community-onset diarrhea that minimizes costs without compromising diagnostic yields. DESIGN: A cost analysis was performed on a retrospective cohort of 422 SOT admissions for community-onset diarrhea over an 18-month period. A stepwise testing model was applied on a population level to assess test costs relative to diagnostic yields. RESULTS: Over an 18-month period, 1564 diagnostic tests were performed and 127 (8.1%) returned positive. Diagnostic testing accounted for $95 625 of hospital costs. The tests with the lowest cost per decrease in the false-omission rate (FOR) were stool Clostridium difficile polymerase chain reaction (PCR) ($156), serum cytomegalovirus quantitative PCR ($1529), stool norovirus (NV) PCR ($4673), and stool culture ($6804). A time-to-event analysis found no significant difference in the length of hospital stay between patients with and without NV testing (P=.520). CONCLUSIONS: A stepwise testing strategy can reduce costs without compromising diagnostic yields. In the first-stage testing, we recommend assessment for C. difficile, cytomegalovirus, and food-borne bacterial pathogens. For persistent diarrheal episodes, second-stage evaluation should include stool NV PCR, Giardia/Cryptosporidium enzyme immunoassay, stool ova and parasite, reductions in immunosuppressive therapy, and possibly endoscopy. Although NV testing had a relatively low cost per FOR, we recommend NV testing during second-stage evaluation, as an NV diagnosis may not lead to changes in clinical management or further reductions in length of hospital stay.

MicroRNA-related polymorphisms and non-Hodgkin lymphoma susceptibility in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: MicroRNAs, small non-coding RNAs involved in gene regulation, are implicated in lymphomagenesis. We evaluated whether genetic variations in microRNA coding regions, binding sites, or biogenesis genes (collectively referred to as miRNA-SNPs) were associated with risk of AIDS-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma (AIDS-NHL), and serum levels of four lymphoma-related microRNAs. METHODS: Twenty-five miRNA-SNPs were genotyped in 180 AIDS-NHL cases and 529 HIV-infected matched controls from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), and real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to quantify serum microRNA levels. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) estimated using conditional logistic regression evaluated associations between miRNA-SNPs and AIDS-NHL risk. A semi-Bayes shrinkage approach was employed to reduce likelihood of false-positive associations. Adjusted mean ratios (MR) calculated using linear regression assessed associations between miRNA-SNPs and serum microRNA levels. RESULTS: DDX20 rs197412, a non-synonymous miRNA biogenesis gene SNP, was associated with AIDS-NHL risk (OR=1.34 per minor allele; 95% CI: 1.02-1.75), and higher miRNA-222 serum levels nearing statistical significance (MR=1.21 per minor allele; 95% CI: 0.98-1.49). MiRNA-196a2 rs11614913 was associated with decreased central nervous system (CNS) AIDS-NHL (CT vs. CC OR=0.52; 95% CI: 0.27-0.99). The minor allele of HIF1A rs2057482, which creates a miRNA-196a2 binding site, was associated with systemic AIDS-NHL risk (OR=1.73 per minor allele; 95% CI: 1.12-2.67), and decreased CNS AIDS-NHL risk (OR=0.49 per minor allele; 95% CI: 0.25-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that a few miRNA-SNPs are associated with AIDS-NHL risk and may modulate miRNA expression. These results support a role for miRNA in AIDS-NHL and may highlight pathways to be targeted for risk stratification or therapeutics.

The effect of HAART-induced HIV suppression on circulating markers of inflammation and immune activation.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the impact of HAART-induced HIV suppression on levels of 24 serological biomarkers of inflammation and immune activation. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. METHODS: Biomarkers were measured with multiplex assays in centralized laboratories using stored serum samples contributed by 1697 men during 8903 person-visits in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) from 1984 to 2009. Using generalized gamma models, we compared biomarker values across three groups, adjusting for possible confounders: HIV-uninfected (NEG); HIV-positive, HAART-naive (NAI); and HAART-exposed with HIV RNA suppressed to less than 50 copies/ml plasma (SUP). We also estimated changes in biomarker levels associated with duration of HIV suppression, using splined generalized gamma regression with a knot at 1 year. RESULTS: Most biomarkers were relatively normalized in the SUP group relative to the NAI group; however, 12 biomarkers in the SUP group were distinct (P < 0.002) from NEG values: CXCL10, C-reactive protein (CRP), sCD14, sTNFR2, tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), sCD27, sGP130, interleukin (IL)-8, CCL13, BAFF, GM-CSF and IL-12p70. Thirteen biomarkers exhibited significant changes in the first year after viral suppression, but none changed significantly after that time. CONCLUSION: Biomarkers of inflammation and immune activation moved towards HIV-negative levels within the first year after HAART-induced HIV suppression. Although several markers of T-cell activation returned to levels present in HIV-negative men, residual immune activation, particularly monocyte/macrophage activation, was present. This residual immune activation may represent a therapeutic target to improve the prognosis of HIV-infected individuals receiving HAART.

The association between APOL1 risk alleles and longitudinal kidney function differs by HIV viral suppression status.

BACKGROUND: Existing data suggest that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected African Americans carrying 2 copies of the APOL1 risk alleles have greater risk of kidney disease than noncarriers. We sought to determine whether HIV RNA suppression mitigates APOL1-related kidney function decline among African Americans enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. METHODS: We genotyped HIV-infected men for the G1 and G2 risk alleles and ancestry informative markers. Mixed-effects models were used to estimate the annual rate of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline, comparing men carrying 2 (high-risk) vs 0-1 risk allele (low-risk). Effect modification by HIV suppression status (defined as HIV type 1 RNA level <400 copies/mL for >90% of follow-up time) was evaluated using interaction terms and stratified analyses. RESULTS: Of the 333 African American men included in this study, 54 (16%) carried the APOL1 high-risk genotype. Among HIV-infected men with unsuppressed viral loads, those with the high-risk genotype had a 2.42 mL/minute/1.73 m(2) (95% confidence interval [CI], -3.52 to -1.32) faster annual eGFR decline than men with the low-risk genotype. This association was independent of age, comorbid conditions, baseline eGFR, ancestry, and HIV-related factors. In contrast, the rate of decline was similar by APOL1 genotype among men with sustained viral suppression (-0.16 mL/minute/1.73 m(2)/year; 95% CI, -.59 to .27; P for interaction <.001). CONCLUSIONS: Unsuppressed HIV-infected African Americans with the APOL1 high-risk genotype experience an accelerated rate of kidney function decline; HIV suppression with antiretroviral therapy may reduce these deleterious renal effects.

Human APOBEC3 induced mutation of human immunodeficiency virus type-1 contributes to adaptation and evolution in natural infection.

Human APOBEC3 proteins are cytidine deaminases that contribute broadly to innate immunity through the control of exogenous retrovirus replication and endogenous retroelement retrotransposition. As an intrinsic antiretroviral defense mechanism, APOBEC3 proteins induce extensive guanosine-to-adenosine (G-to-A) mutagenesis and inhibit synthesis of nascent human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) cDNA. Human APOBEC3 proteins have additionally been proposed to induce infrequent, potentially non-lethal G-to-A mutations that make subtle contributions to sequence diversification of the viral genome and adaptation though acquisition of beneficial mutations. Using single-cycle HIV-1 infections in culture and highly parallel DNA sequencing, we defined trinucleotide contexts of the edited sites for APOBEC3D, APOBEC3F, APOBEC3G, and APOBEC3H. We then compared these APOBEC3 editing contexts with the patterns of G-to-A mutations in HIV-1 DNA in cells obtained sequentially from ten patients with primary HIV-1 infection. Viral substitutions were highest in the preferred trinucleotide contexts of the edited sites for the APOBEC3 deaminases. Consistent with the effects of immune selection, amino acid changes accumulated at the APOBEC3 editing contexts located within human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-appropriate epitopes that are known or predicted to enable peptide binding. Thus, APOBEC3 activity may induce mutations that influence the genetic diversity and adaptation of the HIV-1 population in natural infection.

Temporal stability of serum concentrations of cytokines and soluble receptors measured across two years in low-risk HIV-seronegative men.

BACKGROUND: Prospective cohort studies often quantify serum immune biomarkers at a single time point to determine risk of cancer and other chronic diseases that develop years later. Estimates of the within-person temporal stability of serum markers partly assess the utility of single biomarker measurements and may have important implications for the design of prospective studies of chronic disease risk. METHODS: Using archived sera collected from 200 HIV-seronegative men at three visits spaced over approximately 2 years, concentrations of 14 biomarkers (ApoA1, sCD14, sgp130, sIL-6R, sIL-2Rα, sTNFR2, BAFF/BLyS, CXCL13, IFN-γ, interleukin [IL]-1ß, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and TNF-α) were measured in a single laboratory. Age- and ethnicity-adjusted intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were calculated for each biomarker, and mixed linear regression models were used to examine the influence of age, ethnicity, season, and study site on biomarker concentrations. RESULTS: Across all three study visits, most biomarkers had ICC values indicating fair to excellent within-person stability. ApoA1 (ICC = 0.88) and TNF-α (ICC = 0.87) showed the greatest stability; the ICC for IL-8 (ICC = 0.33) was remarkably less stable. The ICCs were similar when calculated between pairs of consecutive visits. The covariables did not influence biomarker levels or their temporal stability. All biomarkers showed moderate to strong pairwise correlations across visits. CONCLUSIONS: Serum concentrations of most evaluated immune biomarkers displayed acceptable to excellent within-person temporal reliability over a 2-year period. Further investigation may be required to clarify the stability of IL-8. IMPACT: These findings lend support to using these serologic immune biomarkers in prospective studies investigating associations with chronic diseases.

Clinical outcomes of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii bloodstream infections: study of a 2-state monoclonal outbreak.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the clinical outcomes of patients with bloodstream infection caused by carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii during a 2-state monoclonal outbreak. DESIGN: Multicenter observational study. Setting. Four tertiary care hospitals and 1 long-term acute care hospital. METHODS: A retrospective medical chart review was conducted for all consecutive patients during the period January 1, 2005, through April 30, 2006, for whom 1 or more blood cultures yielded carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii. RESULTS: We identified 86 patients from the 16-month study period. Their mortality rate was 41%; of the 35 patients who died, one-third (13) had positive blood culture results for carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii at the time of death. Risk factors associated with mortality were intensive care unit stay, malignancy, and presence of fever and/or hypotension at the time blood sample for culture was obtained. Only 5 patients received adequate empirical antibiotic treatment, but the choice of treatment did not affect mortality. Fifty-seven patients (66.2%) had a single positive blood culture result for carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii; the only factor associated with a single positive blood culture result was the presence of decubitus ulcers. Interestingly, during the study period, a transition from single to multiple positive blood culture results was observed. Four patients, 3 of whom were in a burn intensive care unit, were bacteremic for more than 30 days (range, 36-86 days). CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first time a study has described 2 patterns of bloodstream infection with A. baumannii: single versus multiple positive blood culture results, as well as a subset of patients with prolonged bacteremia.