Bayesian Networks for Prescreening in Depression: Algorithm Development and Validation.

BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals with depressive symptomatology (DS) promptly and effectively is of paramount importance for providing timely treatment. Machine learning models have shown promise in this area; however, studies often fall short in demonstrating the practical benefits of using these models and fail to provide tangible real-world applications. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to establish a novel methodology for identifying individuals likely to exhibit DS, identify the most influential features in a more explainable way via probabilistic measures, and propose tools that can be used in real-world applications. METHODS: The study used 3 data sets: PROACTIVE, the Brazilian National Health Survey (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde [PNS]) 2013, and PNS 2019, comprising sociodemographic and health-related features. A Bayesian network was used for feature selection. Selected features were then used to train machine learning models to predict DS, operationalized as a score of ≥10 on the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire. The study also analyzed the impact of varying sensitivity rates on the reduction of screening interviews compared to a random approach. RESULTS: The methodology allows the users to make an informed trade-off among sensitivity, specificity, and a reduction in the number of interviews. At the thresholds of 0.444, 0.412, and 0.472, determined by maximizing the Youden index, the models achieved sensitivities of 0.717, 0.741, and 0.718, and specificities of 0.644, 0.737, and 0.766 for PROACTIVE, PNS 2013, and PNS 2019, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.736, 0.801, and 0.809 for these 3 data sets, respectively. For the PROACTIVE data set, the most influential features identified were postural balance, shortness of breath, and how old people feel they are. In the PNS 2013 data set, the features were the ability to do usual activities, chest pain, sleep problems, and chronic back problems. The PNS 2019 data set shared 3 of the most influential features with the PNS 2013 data set. However, the difference was the replacement of chronic back problems with verbal abuse. It is important to note that the features contained in the PNS data sets differ from those found in the PROACTIVE data set. An empirical analysis demonstrated that using the proposed model led to a potential reduction in screening interviews of up to 52% while maintaining a sensitivity of 0.80. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed a novel methodology for identifying individuals with DS, demonstrating the utility of using Bayesian networks to identify the most significant features. Moreover, this approach has the potential to substantially reduce the number of screening interviews while maintaining high sensitivity, thereby facilitating improved early identification and intervention strategies for individuals experiencing DS.

Do baseline participant characteristics impact the effectiveness of a mobile health intervention for depressive symptoms? A post-hoc subgroup analysis of the CONEMO trials.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain whether sociodemographic and health-related characteristics known from previous research to have a substantive impact on recovery from depression modified the effect of a digital intervention designed to improve depressive symptoms (CONEMO). METHODS: The CONEMO study consisted of two randomized controlled trials, one conducted in Lima, Peru, and one in São Paulo, Brazil. As a secondary trial plan analysis, mixed logistic regression was used to explore interactions between the treatment arm and subgroups of interest defined by characteristics measured before randomization - suicidal ideation, race/color, age, gender, income, type of mobile phone, alcohol misuse, tobacco use, and diabetes/hypertension - in both trials. We estimated interaction effects between the treatment group and these subgroup factors for the secondary outcomes using linear mixed regression models. RESULTS: Increased effects of the CONEMO intervention on the primary outcome (reduction of at least 50% in depressive symptom scores at 3-month follow-up) were observed among older and wealthier participants in the Lima trial (p = 0.030 and p = 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: There was no evidence of such differential effects in São Paulo, and no evidence of impact of any other secondary outcomes in either trial. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02846662 (São Paulo, Brazil - SP), NCT03026426 (Lima, Peru - LI).

An online clinical decision tool to screen for vertebral fragility fractures (Vfrac) in older women presenting with back pain in general practice: protocol for a feasibility study in preparation for a future cluster randomised controlled trial.

This feasibility study for a future definitive randomized trial assesses the use and acceptability of a new clinical decision tool to identify risk of a vertebral fracture and those who should be referred for spinal radiography in women aged 65 or over presenting to primary care with back pain. PURPOSE: Approximately 12% of older adults have vertebral fragility fractures, but currently fewer than one-third are diagnosed, potentially limiting access to bone protection treatment. Vfrac is a vertebral fracture screening tool which classifies individuals into high or low risk of having a vertebral fracture, allowing targeting of spinal radiographs to high-risk individuals. The objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of conducting a cluster randomized controlled trial to evaluate the use of an online version of Vfrac in primary care. METHODS: The study will run in six general practices, with three given the Vfrac tool for use on older women (> 65 years) consulting with back pain and three using standard clinical processes for managing such back pain. Anonymised data covering a 12-month period will be collected from all sites on consultations by older women with back pain. Focus groups will be undertaken with healthcare professionals and patients on whom the tool was used to understand the acceptability of Vfrac and identify factors that impact its use. These patients will be sent a paper version of the Vfrac questionnaire to self-complete at home. Outputs of the self-completion Vfrac (high versus low risk) will be compared with the face-to-face Vfrac (high versus low risk), and agreement assessed using Cohen's kappa. RESULTS: This study will evaluate the use and acceptability of Vfrac within primary care and determine if data on resource use can be collected accurately and comprehensively. CONCLUSIONS: This article describes the protocol of the Vfrac feasibility study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN18000119 (registered 01/03/2022) and ISRCTN12150779 (registered 10/01/2022).

Do baseline participant characteristics impact the effectiveness of a mobile health intervention for depressive symptoms? A post-hoc subgroup analysis of the CONEMO trials

Objective: To ascertain whether sociodemographic and health-related characteristics known from previous research to have a substantive impact on recovery from depression modified the effect of a digital intervention designed to improve depressive symptoms (CONEMO). Methods: The CONEMO study consisted of two randomized controlled trials, one conducted in Lima, Peru, and one in São Paulo, Brazil. As a secondary trial plan analysis, mixed logistic regression was used to explore interactions between the treatment arm and subgroups of interest defined by characteristics measured before randomization - suicidal ideation, race/color, age, gender, income, type of mobile phone, alcohol misuse, tobacco use, and diabetes/hypertension - in both trials. We estimated interaction effects between the treatment group and these subgroup factors for the secondary outcomes using linear mixed regression models. Results: Increased effects of the CONEMO intervention on the primary outcome (reduction of at least 50% in depressive symptom scores at 3-month follow-up) were observed among older and wealthier participants in the Lima trial (p = 0.030 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: There was no evidence of such differential effects in São Paulo, and no evidence of impact of any other secondary outcomes in either trial. Clinical trial registration: NCT02846662 (São Paulo, Brazil - SP), NCT03026426 (Lima, Peru - LI). Funded by the U.S. National Institute of Mental Health (grant U19MH098780).

Social, emotional and behavioural difficulties associated with persistent speech disorder in children: A prospective population study.

Purpose: Social, emotional and behavioural difficulties (SEBD) in childhood are associated with negative consequences across the life course. Children with developmental language disorder have been identified as being at risk of developing SEBD but it is unclear whether a similar risk exists for children with speech sound disorder, a condition which impacts on children's ability to make themselves understood and has been shown to be associated with poor educational outcomes. Methods: Participants were children who attended the 8-year-old clinic in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N = 7390). Children with speech sound disorder that had persisted beyond the period of typical speech acquisition (persistent speech disorder [PSD]) at age 8 were identified from recordings and transcriptions of speech samples (N = 263). Parent-, teacher- and child-reported questionnaires and interviews including the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, Short Moods and Feelings Questionnaire and measures for antisocial and risk-taking behaviour were used to provide outcome scores for SEBD at 10-14 years in a series of regression analyses. Results: Following adjustment for biological sex, socio-economic status and Intelligence Quotient, children with PSD at age 8 were more likely to show peer problems at age 10-11 years compared with their peers, as reported by teachers and parents. Teachers were more likely to report problems with emotionality. Children with PSD were no more likely to report symptoms of depression than their peers. No associations were observed between PSD, risk of antisocial behaviour, trying alcohol at age 10 or smoking cigarettes at age 14. Conclusions: Children with PSD may be at risk in terms of their peer relationships. This could impact on their wellbeing and, while not observed at this age, may lead to depressive symptoms in older childhood and adolescence. There is also the potential that these symptoms may impact on educational outcomes.

Fifteen-Year Outcomes after Monitoring, Surgery, or Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Between 1999 and 2009 in the United Kingdom, 82,429 men between 50 and 69 years of age received a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test. Localized prostate cancer was diagnosed in 2664 men. Of these men, 1643 were enrolled in a trial to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments, with 545 randomly assigned to receive active monitoring, 553 to undergo prostatectomy, and 545 to undergo radiotherapy. METHODS: At a median follow-up of 15 years (range, 11 to 21), we compared the results in this population with respect to death from prostate cancer (the primary outcome) and death from any cause, metastases, disease progression, and initiation of long-term androgen-deprivation therapy (secondary outcomes). RESULTS: Follow-up was complete for 1610 patients (98%). A risk-stratification analysis showed that more than one third of the men had intermediate or high-risk disease at diagnosis. Death from prostate cancer occurred in 45 men (2.7%): 17 (3.1%) in the active-monitoring group, 12 (2.2%) in the prostatectomy group, and 16 (2.9%) in the radiotherapy group (P = 0.53 for the overall comparison). Death from any cause occurred in 356 men (21.7%), with similar numbers in all three groups. Metastases developed in 51 men (9.4%) in the active-monitoring group, in 26 (4.7%) in the prostatectomy group, and in 27 (5.0%) in the radiotherapy group. Long-term androgen-deprivation therapy was initiated in 69 men (12.7%), 40 (7.2%), and 42 (7.7%), respectively; clinical progression occurred in 141 men (25.9%), 58 (10.5%), and 60 (11.0%), respectively. In the active-monitoring group, 133 men (24.4%) were alive without any prostate cancer treatment at the end of follow-up. No differential effects on cancer-specific mortality were noted in relation to the baseline PSA level, tumor stage or grade, or risk-stratification score. No treatment complications were reported after the 10-year analysis. CONCLUSIONS: After 15 years of follow-up, prostate cancer-specific mortality was low regardless of the treatment assigned. Thus, the choice of therapy involves weighing trade-offs between benefits and harms associated with treatments for localized prostate cancer. (Funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research; ProtecT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN20141297; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02044172.).

Patient-Reported Outcomes 12 Years after Localized Prostate Cancer Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Long-term patient-reported outcomes are needed to inform treatment decisions for localized prostate cancer. METHODS: Patient-reported outcomes of 1643 randomly assigned participants in the ProtecT (Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment) trial were evaluated to assess the functional and quality-of-life impacts of prostatectomy, radiotherapy with neoadjuvant androgen deprivation, and active monitoring. This article focuses on the outcomes of the randomly assigned participants from 7 to 12 years using mixed effects linear and logistic models. RESULTS: Response rates exceeded 80% for most measures. Among the randomized groups over 7 to 12 years, generic quality-of-life scores were similar. Among those in the prostatectomy group, urinary leakage requiring pads occurred in 18 to 24% of patients over 7 to 12 years, compared with 9 to 11% in the active monitoring group and 3 to 8% in the radiotherapy group. In the prostatectomy group, 18% reported erections sufficient for intercourse at 7 years, compared with 30% in the active monitoring and 27% in the radiotherapy groups; all converged to low levels of potency by year 12. Nocturia (voiding at least twice per night) occurred in 34% in the prostatectomy group compared with 48% in the radiotherapy group and 47% in the active monitoring group at 12 years. Fecal leakage affected 12% in the radiotherapy group compared with 6% in the other groups by year 12. The active monitoring group experienced gradual age-related declines in sexual and urinary function, avoiding radical treatment effects unless they changed management. CONCLUSIONS: ProtecT provides robust evidence about continued impacts of treatments in the long term. These data allow patients newly diagnosed with localized prostate cancer and their clinicians to assess the trade-offs between treatment harms and benefits and enable better informed and prudent treatment decisions. (Funded by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme projects 96/20/06 and 96/20/99; ISRCTN number, ISRCTN20141297; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02044172.)

Functional and quality of life outcomes of localised prostate cancer treatments (Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment [ProtecT] study).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the functional and quality of life (QoL) outcomes of treatments for localised prostate cancer and inform treatment decision-making. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Men aged 50-69 years diagnosed with localised prostate cancer by prostate-specific antigen testing and biopsies at nine UK centres in the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial were randomised to, or chose one of, three treatments. Of 2565 participants, 1135 men received active monitoring (AM), 750 a radical prostatectomy (RP), 603 external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT) with concurrent androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and 77 low-dose-rate brachytherapy (BT, not a randomised treatment). Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) completed annually for 6 years were analysed by initial treatment and censored for subsequent treatments. Mixed effects models were adjusted for baseline characteristics using propensity scores. RESULTS: Treatment-received analyses revealed different impacts of treatments over 6 years. Men remaining on AM experienced gradual declines in sexual and urinary function with age (e.g., increases in erectile dysfunction from 35% of men at baseline to 53% at 6 years and nocturia similarly from 20% to 38%). Radical treatment impacts were immediate and continued over 6 years. After RP, 95% of men reported erectile dysfunction persisting for 85% at 6 years, and after EBRT this was reported by 69% and 74%, respectively (P < 0.001 compared with AM). After RP, 36% of men reported urinary leakage requiring at least 1 pad/day, persisting for 20% at 6 years, compared with no change in men receiving EBRT or AM (P < 0.001). Worse bowel function and bother (e.g., bloody stools 6% at 6 years and faecal incontinence 10%) was experienced by men after EBRT than after RP or AM (P < 0.001) with lesser effects after BT. No treatment affected mental or physical QoL. CONCLUSION: Treatment decision-making for localised prostate cancer can be informed by these 6-year functional and QoL outcomes.

The STAR care pathway for patients with pain at 3 months after total knee replacement: a multicentre, pragmatic, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 20% of people experience chronic pain after total knee replacement, but effective treatments are not available. We aimed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a new care pathway for chronic pain after total knee replacement. METHODS: We did an unmasked, parallel group, pragmatic, superiority, randomised, controlled trial at eight UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals. People with chronic pain at 3 months after total knee replacement surgery were randomly assigned (2:1) to the Support and Treatment After Replacement (STAR) care pathway plus usual care, or to usual care alone. The STAR intervention aimed to identify underlying causes of chronic pain and enable onward referrals for targeted treatment through a 3-month post-surgery assessment with an extended scope practitioner and telephone follow-up over 12 months. Co-primary outcomes were self-reported pain severity and pain interference in the replaced knee, assessed with the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) pain severity and interference scales at 12 months (scored 0-10, best to worst) and analysed on an as-randomised basis. Resource use, collected from electronic hospital records and participants, was valued with UK reference costs. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated from EQ-5D-5L responses. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN92545361. FINDINGS: Between Sept 6, 2016, and May 31, 2019, 363 participants were randomly assigned to receive the intervention plus usual care (n=242) or to receive usual care alone (n=121). Participants had a median age of 67 years (IQR 61 to 73), 217 (60%) of 363 were female, and 335 (92%) were White. 313 (86%) patients provided follow-up data at 12 months after randomisation (213 assigned to the intervention plus usual care and 100 assigned to usual care alone). At 12 months, the mean between-group difference in the BPI severity score was -0·65 (95% CI -1·17 to -0·13; p=0·014) and the mean between-group difference in the BPI interference score was -0·68 (-1·29 to -0·08; p=0·026), both favouring the intervention. From an NHS and personal social services perspective, the intervention was cost-effective (greater improvement with lower cost), with an incremental net monetary benefit of £1256 (95% CI 164 to 2348) at £20 000 per QALY threshold. One adverse reaction of participant distress was reported in the intervention group. INTERPRETATION: STAR is a clinically effective and cost-effective intervention to improve pain outcomes over 1 year for people with chronic pain at 3 months after total knee replacement surgery. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Development of guidelines to reduce, handle and report missing data in palliative care trials: A multi-stakeholder modified nominal group technique.

BACKGROUND: Missing data can introduce bias and reduce the power, precision and generalisability of study findings. Guidelines on how to address missing data are limited in scope and detail, and poorly implemented. AIM: To develop guidelines on how best to (i) reduce, (ii) handle and (iii) report missing data in palliative care clinical trials. DESIGN: Modified nominal group technique. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Patient and public research partners, palliative care clinicians, trialists, methodologists and statisticians attended a 1-day workshop, following which a multi-stakeholder development group drafted the guidelines. RESULTS: Seven main recommendations for reducing missing data, nine for handling missing data and twelve for reporting missing data were developed. The top five recommendations were: (i) train all research staff on missing data, (ii) prepare for missing data at the trial design stage, (iii) address missing data in the statistical analysis plan, (iv) collect the reasons for missing data and (v) report descriptive statistics comparing the baseline characteristics of those with missing and observed data. Reducing missing data, preparing for missing data and understanding the reasons for missing data were greater priorities for stakeholders than how to deal with missing data once they had occurred. CONCLUSION: Comprehensive guidelines on how to address missing data were developed by stakeholders involved in palliative care trials. Implementation of the guidelines will require endorsement of research funders and research journals.

Screening to Identify Postoperative Pain and Cross-Sectional Associations Between Factors Identified in This Process With Pain and Function, Three Months After Total Knee Replacement.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the screening and recruitment process of a randomized trial and evaluate associations with knee pain and function 3 months after total knee replacement (TKR). METHODS: In order to screen for a multicenter trial, a total of 5,036 patients were sent the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) questionnaire 10 weeks post-TKR. Patients who reported pain in their replaced knee (score of ≤14 on the OKS pain component) completed a second OKS questionnaire 12 weeks post-TKR. Those patients who were still experiencing pain 12 weeks post-TKR completed a detailed questionnaire 13 weeks post-TKR. These data were used to characterize pain in a cross-sectional analysis. Multivariable regression was performed in order to identify factors associated with pain and function at 13 weeks post-TKR. RESULTS: We received OKS questionnaires from 3,058 of 5,063 TKR patients (60%), and 907 of the 3,058 (30%) reported pain in their replaced knee 10 weeks post-TKR. By 12 weeks, 179 of 553 patients (32%) reported improved pain (score of >14 on the OKS pain component). At 13 weeks, 192 of 363 patients (53%) who completed a detailed questionnaire reported neuropathic pain, 94 of 362 (26%) reported depression symptoms, and 95 of 363 (26%) anxiety symptoms. More severe pain at 13 weeks postoperatively was associated with poorer general health, poorer physical health, more pain worry, and lower satisfaction with surgery outcome. More severe functional limitation was associated with higher levels of depression, more pain worry, lower satisfaction with surgery outcome, and higher pain acceptance. CONCLUSION: Screening after TKR identified individuals with pain. We identified several potential targets (physical and mental health outcomes, acceptance of pain, and quality of life) for tailored intervention to improve outcomes for patients. Future trials of multidisciplinary interventions warranted.

Challenges in Using Recommended Quality of Life Measures to Assess Fluctuating Health: A Think-Aloud Study to Understand How Recall and Timing of Assessment Influence Patient Responses.

BACKGROUND: It can be challenging to measure quality of life to calculate quality-adjusted life-years in recurrent fluctuating health states, as quality of life can constantly change. It is not clear how patients who experience fluctuations complete measures and how assessment timing and recall influence responses. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to understand how patients with fluctuating health complete widely recommended and commonly used measures (EQ-5D-5L, EORTC QLQ-C30 and SF-12) and the extent to which the recall period ('health today', 'past week' and 'past 4 weeks') and timing of assessment influence the way that patients complete these questionnaires. METHODS: Twenty-four adult patients undergoing chemotherapy for urological, gynaecological or bowel cancers in the UK participated in think-aloud interviews, while completing the measures, completed a pictorial task illustrating how quality of life changed during the chemotherapy cycle and took part in semi-structured interviews. Transcripts were analysed using constant comparison. RESULTS: Patients were consistent in describing their quality of life as changing considerably throughout a chemotherapy cycle. The shorter recall period of 'health today' does not adequately represent patients' quality of life because of fluctuations, patients remarked they could give a different answer depending on the timing of assessment, and many struggled to combine the "ups and downs" to answer measures with longer recall ('past week' and 'past 4 weeks'). Across all measures, patients attempted to provide averages, adopt the peak-end rule or focus on the best part of their experience. Patients commonly used more than one approach when completing a given questionnaire as well as across questionnaires. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who experience recurrent fluctuations in health are unable to provide meaningful responses about their quality of life when completing quality-of-life measures due to the recall period and timing of assessment. The use of such responses to calculate health state values in economic evaluations to inform resource allocation decisions in fluctuating conditions must be questioned.

Risk factors associated with poor pain outcomes following primary knee replacement surgery: Analysis of data from the clinical practice research datalink, hospital episode statistics and patient reported outcomes as part of the STAR research programme.

OBJECTIVE: Identify risk factors for poor pain outcomes six months after primary knee replacement surgery. METHODS: Observational cohort study on patients receiving primary knee replacement from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics and Patient Reported Outcomes. A wide range of variables routinely collected in primary and secondary care were identified as potential predictors of worsening or only minor improvement in pain, based on the Oxford Knee Score pain subscale. Results are presented as relative risk ratios and adjusted risk differences (ARD) by fitting a generalized linear model with a binomial error structure and log link function. RESULTS: Information was available for 4,750 patients from 2009 to 2016, with a mean age of 69, of whom 56.1% were female. 10.4% of patients had poor pain outcomes. The strongest effects were seen for pre-operative factors: mild knee pain symptoms at the time of surgery (ARD 18.2% (95% Confidence Interval 13.6, 22.8), smoking 12.0% (95% CI:7.3, 16.6), living in the most deprived areas 5.6% (95% CI:2.3, 9.0) and obesity class II 6.3% (95% CI:3.0, 9.7). Important risk factors with more moderate effects included a history of previous knee arthroscopy surgery 4.6% (95% CI:2.5, 6.6), and use of opioids 3.4% (95% CI:1.4, 5.3) within three months after surgery. Those patients with worsening pain state change had more complications by 3 months (11.8% among those in a worse pain state vs. 2.7% with the same pain state). CONCLUSIONS: We quantified the relative importance of individual risk factors including mild pre-operative pain, smoking, deprivation, obesity and opioid use in terms of the absolute proportions of patients achieving poor pain outcomes. These findings will support development of interventions to reduce the numbers of patients who have poor pain outcomes.

Post-operative determinants of chronic pain after primary knee replacement surgery: Analysis of data on 258,386 patients from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man (NJR).

Objective: To identify post-operative risk factors for the development of chronic pain after knee replacement. Design: Primary knee replacements in persons aged ≥18 years between April 2008 and December 2016 from the National Joint Registry, linked with English Hospital Episode Statistics data, and Patient Reported Outcome Measures. The outcome was chronic pain 6-months after surgery (Oxford Knee pain score). Logistic regression modelling identified risk factors for chronic pain outcome. Results: 258,386 patients; 56.7% women; average age 70.1 years (SD â€‹± â€‹8.8 years). 43,702 (16.9%) were identified as having chronic pain 6-months post-surgery. Within 3 months of surgery complications were uncommon: intra-operative complications 1224 (0.5%); ≥1 medical complication 6073 (2.4%)); 32,930 (12.7%) hospital readmissions; 3848 (1.5%) re-operation; 835 (0.3%) revision. Post-surgical risk factors of chronic pain were: mechanical complication of prosthesis odds ratio (OR) 1.56 (95% Confidence Interval 1.35, 1.80); surgical site infection OR 1.13 (0.99, 1.29); readmission OR 1.47 (1.42, 1.52); re-operation OR 1.39 (1.27, 1.51); revision OR 1.92 (1.64, 2.25); length of stay e.g. 6+ vs. <2 days OR 1.48 (1.35, 1.63), blood transfusion OR 0.47 (0.26, 0.86) and myocardial infarction OR 0.69 (0.49, 0.97). Discriminatory ability of the model was only fair (c-statistic 0.71) indicating that post-surgical predictors explain a limited amount of variability in chronic pain. Conclusions: We identified a number of post-operative factors relating to the operation and early recovery that are associated with chronic pain following primary knee replacement. The model had weak discriminatory ability indicating that there remains considerable unexplained variability in chronic pain outcome.

Strategies adopted by men to deal with uncertainty and anxiety when following an active surveillance/monitoring protocol for localised prostate cancer and implications for care: a longitudinal qualitative study embedded within the ProtecT trial.

OBJECTIVES: Active surveillance (AS) enables men with low risk, localised prostate cancer (PCa) to avoid radical treatment unless progression occurs; lack of reliable AS protocols to determine progression leaves uncertainties for men and clinicians. This study investigated men's strategies for coping with the uncertainties of active monitoring (AM, a surveillance strategy within the Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment, ProtecT trial) over the longer term and implications for optimising supportive care. DESIGN: Longitudinal serial in-depth qualitative interviews every 2-3 years for a median 7 (range 6-14) years following diagnosis. SETTING: Four centres within the UK Protect trial. PARTICIPANTS: Purposive sample of 20 men with localised PCa: median age at diagnosis 64 years (range 52-68); 15 (75%) had low-risk PCa; 12 randomly allocated to, 8 choosing AM. Eleven men continued with AM throughout the study period (median 7 years). Nine received radical treatment after a median 4 years (range 0.8-13.8 years). INTERVENTION: AM: 3-monthly serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-level assessment (year 1), 6-12 monthly thereafter; increase in PSA ≥50% during previous 12 months or patient/clinician concern triggered review. MAIN OUTCOMES: Thematic analysis of 73 interviews identified strategies to accommodate uncertainty and anxiety of living with untreated cancer; implications for patient care. RESULTS: Men sought clarity, control or reassurance, with contextual factors mediating individual responses. Trust in the clinical team was critical for men in balancing anxiety and facilitating successful management change/continued monitoring. Only men from ProtecT were included; men outside ProtecT may have different experiences. CONCLUSION: Men looked to clinicians for clarity, control and reassurance. Where provided, men felt comfortable continuing AM or having radical treatments when indicated. Clinicians build patient trust by clearly describing uncertainties, allowing patients control wherever possible and being aware of how context influences individual responses. Insights indicate need for supportive services to build trust and patient engagement over the long term. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN20141297; Pre-results.

Active monitoring, radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy in PSA-detected clinically localised prostate cancer: the ProtecT three-arm RCT.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men in the UK. Prostate-specific antigen testing followed by biopsy leads to overdetection, overtreatment as well as undertreatment of the disease. Evidence of treatment effectiveness has lacked because of the paucity of randomised controlled trials comparing conventional treatments. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of conventional treatments for localised prostate cancer (active monitoring, radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy) in men aged 50-69 years. DESIGN: A prospective, multicentre prostate-specific antigen testing programme followed by a randomised trial of treatment, with a comprehensive cohort follow-up. SETTING: Prostate-specific antigen testing in primary care and treatment in nine urology departments in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Between 2001 and 2009, 228,966 men aged 50-69 years received an invitation to attend an appointment for information about the Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) study and a prostate-specific antigen test; 82,429 men were tested, 2664 were diagnosed with localised prostate cancer, 1643 agreed to randomisation to active monitoring (n = 545), radical prostatectomy (n = 553) or radical radiotherapy (n = 545) and 997 chose a treatment. INTERVENTIONS: The interventions were active monitoring, radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy. TRIAL PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Definite or probable disease-specific mortality at the 10-year median follow-up in randomised participants. SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall mortality, metastases, disease progression, treatment complications, resource utilisation and patient-reported outcomes. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences between the groups for 17 prostate cancer-specific (p = 0.48) and 169 all-cause (p = 0.87) deaths. Eight men died of prostate cancer in the active monitoring group (1.5 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 0.7 to 3.0); five died of prostate cancer in the radical prostatectomy group (0.9 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.2 per 1000 person years) and four died of prostate cancer in the radical radiotherapy group (0.7 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 0.3 to 2.0 per 1000 person years). More men developed metastases in the active monitoring group than in the radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy groups: active monitoring, n = 33 (6.3 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 4.5 to 8.8); radical prostatectomy, n = 13 (2.4 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2 per 1000 person years); and radical radiotherapy, n = 16 (3.0 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 1.9 to 4.9 per 1000 person-years; p = 0.004). There were higher rates of disease progression in the active monitoring group than in the radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy groups: active monitoring (n = 112; 22.9 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 19.0 to 27.5 per 1000 person years); radical prostatectomy (n = 46; 8.9 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 6.7 to 11.9 per 1000 person-years); and radical radiotherapy (n = 46; 9.0 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 6.7 to 12.0 per 1000 person years; p < 0.001). Radical prostatectomy had the greatest impact on sexual function/urinary continence and remained worse than radical radiotherapy and active monitoring. Radical radiotherapy's impact on sexual function was greatest at 6 months, but recovered somewhat in the majority of participants. Sexual and urinary function gradually declined in the active monitoring group. Bowel function was worse with radical radiotherapy at 6 months, but it recovered with the exception of bloody stools. Urinary voiding and nocturia worsened in the radical radiotherapy group at 6 months but recovered. Condition-specific quality-of-life effects mirrored functional changes. No differences in anxiety/depression or generic or cancer-related quality of life were found. At the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the probabilities that each arm was the most cost-effective option were 58% (radical radiotherapy), 32% (active monitoring) and 10% (radical prostatectomy). LIMITATIONS: A single prostate-specific antigen test and transrectal ultrasound biopsies were used. There were very few non-white men in the trial. The majority of men had low- and intermediate-risk disease. Longer follow-up is needed. CONCLUSIONS: At a median follow-up point of 10 years, prostate cancer-specific mortality was low, irrespective of the assigned treatment. Radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy reduced disease progression and metastases, but with side effects. Further work is needed to follow up participants at a median of 15 years. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN20141297. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 37. See the National Institute for Health Research Journals Library website for further project information.

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men and is often found through a blood test called a prostate-specific antigen test and through biopsies of the prostate. Over the years, these tests led to the detection of many small cancers that do not cause harm. Some prostate cancers are harmful, but it is difficult to recognise them early. When cancer is still inside the prostate, the conventional treatments are surgery or radiotherapy, which carry side effects including leaking urine and difficulty getting an erection, so another option is repeat investigations at regular intervals (active monitoring), with treatments given if the cancer progresses. These options needed to be compared in a study called a 'randomised trial' in which men agree to be allocated to one of the three treatments. In the Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) study, 200,000 men aged 50­69 years were invited to have a prostate-specific antigen test. Of the 82,849 men who agreed to be tested, 1643 of whom had prostate cancer that was still contained in the prostate agreed to be allocated to one of the three treatments. After an average of 10 years of follow-up, 99% of men were alive in each of the treatment groups. However, when compared with active monitoring, surgery and radiotherapy reduced the risk of disease spreading outside the prostate by half. Patients reported that urinary leakage and sexual function were worst with surgery, and sexual and bowel functions were affected by radiotherapy. Men on active monitoring had a gradual decline in their urinary and sexual function, particularly as around half of them later had surgery or radiotherapy. Radiotherapy was the treatment that seemed to be the best value for money. The findings from the Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) study can help men make decisions about being tested and which treatment to have if they are found to have cancer within the prostate. We now need to find out the longer-term effects of these treatments on how long men live and their quality of life.

The ProtecT randomised trial cost-effectiveness analysis comparing active monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy for prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence relating to the cost-effectiveness of treatments for localised prostate cancer. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness of active monitoring, surgery, and radiotherapy was evaluated within the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) randomised controlled trial from a UK NHS perspective at 10 years' median follow-up. Prostate cancer resource-use collected from hospital records and trial participants was valued using UK reference-costs. QALYs (quality-adjusted-life-years) were calculated from patient-reported EQ-5D-3L measurements. Adjusted mean costs, QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated; cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analyses addressed uncertainty; subgroup analyses considered age and disease-risk. RESULTS: Adjusted mean QALYs were similar between groups: 6.89 (active monitoring), 7.09 (radiotherapy), and 6.91 (surgery). Active monitoring had lower adjusted mean costs (£5913) than radiotherapy (£7361) and surgery (£7519). Radiotherapy was the most likely (58% probability) cost-effective option at the UK NICE willingness-to-pay threshold (£20,000 per QALY). Subgroup analyses confirmed radiotherapy was cost-effective for older men and intermediate/high-risk disease groups; active monitoring was more likely to be the cost-effective option for younger men and low-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Longer follow-up and modelling are required to determine the most cost-effective treatment for localised prostate cancer over a man's lifetime. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN20141297: http://isrctn.org (14/10/2002); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02044172: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov (23/01/2014).

Ten-year Mortality, Disease Progression, and Treatment-related Side Effects in Men with Localised Prostate Cancer from the ProtecT Randomised Controlled Trial According to Treatment Received.

BACKGROUND: The ProtecT trial reported intention-to-treat analysis of men with localised prostate cancer (PCa) randomly allocated to active monitoring (AM), radical prostatectomy, and external beam radiotherapy. OBJECTIVE: To determine report outcomes according to treatment received in men in randomised and treatment choice cohorts. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study focuses on secondary care. Men with clinically localised prostate cancer at one of nine UK centres were invited to participate in the treatment trial comparing AM, radical prostatectomy, and radiotherapy. INTERVENTION: Two cohorts included 1643 men who agreed to be randomised; 997 declined randomisation and chose treatment. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Health-related quality of life impacts on urinary, bowel, and sexual function were assessed using patient-reported outcome measures. Analysis was carried out based on treatment received for each cohort and on pooled estimates using meta-analysis. Differences were estimated with adjustment for known prognostic factors using propensity scores. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: According to treatment received, more men receiving AM died of PCa (AM 1.85%, surgery 0.67%, radiotherapy 0.73%), whilst this difference remained consistent with chance in the randomised cohort (p=0.08); stronger evidence was found in the exploratory analyses (randomised plus choice cohort) when AM was compared with the combined radical treatment group (p=0.003). There was also strong evidence that metastasis (AM 5.6%, surgery 2.4%, radiotherapy 2.7%) and disease progression (AM 20.35%, surgery 5.87%, radiotherapy 6.62%) were more common in the AM group. Compared with AM, there were higher risks of sexual dysfunction (95% at 6mo) and urinary incontinence (55% at 6mo) after surgery, and of sexual dysfunction (88% at 6mo) and bowel dysfunction (5% at 6mo) after radiotherapy. The key limitations are the potential for bias when comparing groups defined by treatment received and outdating of the interventions being evaluated during the lengthy follow-up required in trials of screen-detected PCa. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses according to treatment received showed increased rates of disease-related events and lower rates of patient-reported harms in men managed by AM compared with men managed by radical treatment, and stronger evidence of greater PCa mortality in the AM group. PATIENT SUMMARY: More than 90 out of every 100 men with localised prostate cancer do not die of prostate cancer within 10yr, irrespective of whether treatment is by means of monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy. Side effects on sexual and bladder function are much better after active monitoring, but the risks of spreading of prostate cancer are more common.

Factors associated with trial recruitment, preferences, and treatments received were elucidated in a comprehensive cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Recruitment to pragmatic trials is often difficult, and little is known about factors associated with key participation and treatment decisions. These were explored in the Prostate cancer testing and Treatment (ProtecT) study. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Baseline sociodemographic, patient-reported outcome, clinical history, and prostate cancer biopsy data were collected for all patients eligible to take part in the ProtecT trial, in a comprehensive cohort design. Men who rejected randomization specified a preferred option and were followed up identically to the randomized cohort. Factors associated with participation decisions, patient preferences, and reasons for changing treatment were explored. RESULTS: Of 2,664 men with clinically localized prostate cancer, 997 (37%) rejected randomization. Their treatment preferences and subsequent treatment choices/changes in both randomized and treatment choice cohorts were strongly associated with prostate cancer risk features: toward active monitoring for low-risk disease and toward radical options with higher risk prostate cancer. Among many factors measured, only a small number of weak associations were found for occupation groups and some patient symptoms. Similar percentages changed from the random allocation and initially stated preference. CONCLUSION: The comprehensive cohort design provided new insights into trial recruitment and participation decisions. Opportunities to improve recruitment by supporting recruiters with equipoise and patient preferences were identified.