Cost-effectiveness of population-wide genomic screening for Lynch Syndrome and Polygenic Risk Scores to inform Colorectal Cancer screening.

INTRODUCTION: Genomic screening to identify individuals with Lynch Syndrome (LS) and those with a high polygenic risk score (PRS) promises to personalize Colorectal Cancer (CRC) screening. Understanding its clinical and economic impact is needed to inform screening guidelines and reimbursement policies. METHODS: We developed a Markov model to simulate individuals over a lifetime. We compared LS+PRS genomic screening to standard of care (SOC) for a cohort of US adults at age 30. The Markov model included health states of "no CRC", CRC stages (A-D) and death. We estimated incidence, mortality, and discounted economic outcomes of the population under different interventions. RESULTS: Screening 1000 individuals for LS+PRS resulted in 1.36 fewer CRC cases and 0.65 fewer deaths compared to SOC. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $124,415 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY); screening had a 69% probability of being cost-effective using a willingness to pay threshold of $150,000/QALY. Setting the PRS threshold at the 90th percentile of the LS+PRS screening program to define individuals at high risk was most likely to be cost-effective compared to 95th, 85th, and 80th percentiles. CONCLUSION: Population-level LS+PRS screening is marginally cost-effective and a threshold of 90th percentile is more likely to be cost-effective than other thresholds.

Prospective, multi-site study of healthcare utilization after actionable monogenic findings from clinical sequencing.

As large-scale genomic screening becomes increasingly prevalent, understanding the influence of actionable results on healthcare utilization is key to estimating the potential long-term clinical impact. The eMERGE network sequenced individuals for actionable genes in multiple genetic conditions and returned results to individuals, providers, and the electronic health record. Differences in recommended health services (laboratory, imaging, and procedural testing) delivered within 12 months of return were compared among individuals with pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) findings to matched individuals with negative findings before and after return of results. Of 16,218 adults, 477 unselected individuals were found to have a monogenic risk for arrhythmia (n = 95), breast cancer (n = 96), cardiomyopathy (n = 95), colorectal cancer (n = 105), or familial hypercholesterolemia (n = 86). Individuals with P/LP results more frequently received services after return (43.8%) compared to before return (25.6%) of results and compared to individuals with negative findings (24.9%; p < 0.0001). The annual cost of qualifying healthcare services increased from an average of $162 before return to $343 after return of results among the P/LP group (p < 0.0001); differences in the negative group were non-significant. The mean difference-in-differences was $149 (p < 0.0001), which describes the increased cost within the P/LP group corrected for cost changes in the negative group. When stratified by individual conditions, significant cost differences were observed for arrhythmia, breast cancer, and cardiomyopathy. In conclusion, less than half of individuals received billed health services after monogenic return, which modestly increased healthcare costs for payors in the year following return.

Population Genomic Screening for Three Common Hereditary Conditions : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of screening the U.S. population for Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Tier 1 genomic conditions is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of simultaneous genomic screening for Lynch syndrome (LS), hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome (HBOC), and familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). DESIGN: Decision analytic Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Published literature. TARGET POPULATION: Separate age-based cohorts (ages 20 to 60 years at time of screening) of racially and ethnically representative U.S. adults. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: U.S. health care payer. INTERVENTION: Population genomic screening using clinical sequencing with a restricted panel of high-evidence genes, cascade testing of first-degree relatives, and recommended preventive interventions for identified probands. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident breast, ovarian, and colorectal cancer cases; incident cardiovascular events; quality-adjusted survival; and costs. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Screening 100 000 unselected 30-year-olds resulted in 101 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 77 to 127) fewer overall cancer cases and 15 (95% UI, 4 to 28) fewer cardiovascular events and an increase of 495 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% UI, 401 to 757) at an incremental cost of $33.9 million (95% UI, $27.0 million to $41.1 million). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $68 600 per QALY gained (95% UI, $41 800 to $88 900). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Screening 30-, 40-, and 50-year-old cohorts was cost-effective in 99%, 88%, and 19% of probabilistic simulations, respectively, at a $100 000-per-QALY threshold. The test costs at which screening 30-, 40-, and 50-year-olds reached the $100 000-per-QALY threshold were $413, $290, and $166, respectively. Variant prevalence and adherence to preventive interventions were also highly influential parameters. LIMITATIONS: Population averages for model inputs, which were derived predominantly from European populations, vary across ancestries and health care environments. CONCLUSION: Population genomic screening with a restricted panel of high-evidence genes associated with 3 CDC Tier 1 conditions is likely to be cost-effective in U.S. adults younger than 40 years if the testing cost is relatively low and probands have access to preventive interventions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Human Genome Research Institute.

Familial Hypercholesterolemia in the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics Network: Prevalence, Penetrance, Cardiovascular Risk, and Outcomes After Return of Results.

BACKGROUND: The implications of secondary findings detected in large-scale sequencing projects remain uncertain. We assessed prevalence and penetrance of pathogenic familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) variants, their association with coronary heart disease (CHD), and 1-year outcomes following return of results in phase III of the electronic medical records and genomics network. METHODS: Adult participants (n=18 544) at 7 sites were enrolled in a prospective cohort study to assess the clinical impact of returning results from targeted sequencing of 68 actionable genes, including LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9. FH variant prevalence and penetrance (defined as low-density lipoprotein cholesterol >155 mg/dL) were estimated after excluding participants enrolled on the basis of hypercholesterolemia. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of CHD compared to age- and sex-matched controls without FH-associated variants. Process (eg, referral to a specialist or ordering new tests), intermediate (eg, new diagnosis of FH), and clinical (eg, treatment modification) outcomes within 1 year after return of results were ascertained by electronic health record review. RESULTS: The prevalence of FH-associated pathogenic variants was 1 in 188 (69 of 13,019 unselected participants). Penetrance was 87.5%. The presence of an FH variant was associated with CHD (odds ratio, 3.02 [2.00-4.53]) and premature CHD (odds ratio, 3.68 [2.34-5.78]). At least 1 outcome occurred in 92% of participants; 44% received a new diagnosis of FH and 26% had treatment modified following return of results. CONCLUSIONS: In a multisite cohort of electronic health record-linked biobanks, monogenic FH was prevalent, penetrant, and associated with presence of CHD. Nearly half of participants with an FH-associated variant received a new diagnosis of FH and a quarter had treatment modified after return of results. These results highlight the potential utility of sequencing electronic health record-linked biobanks to detect FH.

Cost-effectiveness of population-wide genomic screening for familial hypercholesterolemia in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Population genomic screening for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) in unselected individuals can prevent premature cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the clinical and economic outcomes of population-wide FH genomic screening versus no genomic screening. METHODS: We developed a decision tree plus 10-state Markov model evaluating the identification of patients with an FH variant, statin treatment status, LDL-C levels, MI, and stroke to compare the costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness of population-wide FH genomic screening. FH variant prevalence (0.4%) was estimated from the Geisinger MyCode Community Health Initiative (MyCode). Genomic test costs were assumed to be $200. Age and sex-based estimates of MI, recurrent MI, stroke, and recurrent stroke were obtained from Framingham risk equations. Additional outcomes independently associated with FH variants were derived from a retrospective analysis of 26,025 participants screened for FH. Sensitivity and threshold analyses were conducted to evaluate model assumptions and uncertainty. RESULTS: FH screening was most effective at younger ages; screening unselected 20-year-olds lead to 111 QALYs gained per 100,000 individuals screened at an incremental cost of $20 M. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for 20-year-olds was $181,000 per QALY, and there was a 38% probability of cost-effectiveness at a $100,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. If genomic testing cost falls to $100, the ICER would be $91,000 per QALY. CONCLUSION: Population FH screening is not cost-effective at current willingness to pay thresholds. However, reducing test costs, testing at younger ages, or including FH within broader multiplex screening panels may improve clinical and economic value.

Implementing a pragmatic clinical trial to tailor opioids for acute pain on behalf of the IGNITE ADOPT PGx investigators.

Opioid prescribing for postoperative pain management is challenging because of inter-patient variability in opioid response and concern about opioid addiction. Tramadol, hydrocodone, and codeine depend on the cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6) enzyme for formation of highly potent metabolites. Individuals with reduced or absent CYP2D6 activity (i.e., intermediate metabolizers [IMs] or poor metabolizers [PMs], respectively) have lower concentrations of potent opioid metabolites and potentially inadequate pain control. The primary objective of this prospective, multicenter, randomized pragmatic trial is to determine the effect of postoperative CYP2D6-guided opioid prescribing on pain control and opioid usage. Up to 2020 participants, age ≥8 years, scheduled to undergo a surgical procedure will be enrolled and randomized to immediate pharmacogenetic testing with clinical decision support (CDS) for CYP2D6 phenotype-guided postoperative pain management (intervention arm) or delayed testing without CDS (control arm). CDS is provided through medical record alerts and/or a pharmacist consult note. For IMs and PM in the intervention arm, CDS includes recommendations to avoid hydrocodone, tramadol, and codeine. Patient-reported pain-related outcomes are collected 10 days and 1, 3, and 6 months after surgery. The primary outcome, a composite of pain intensity and opioid usage at 10 days postsurgery, will be compared in the subgroup of IMs and PMs in the intervention (n = 152) versus the control (n = 152) arm. Secondary end points include prescription pain medication misuse scores and opioid persistence at 6 months. This trial will provide data on the clinical utility of CYP2D6 phenotype-guided opioid selection for improving postoperative pain control and reducing opioid-related risks.

Impact of a Population Genomic Screening Program on Health Behaviors Related to Familial Hypercholesterolemia Risk Reduction.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available regarding clinician and participant behaviors after disclosure of genomic risk variants for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) from a population genomic screening program. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of MyCode participants with an FH risk variant beginning 2 years before disclosure until January 16, 2019. We analyzed lipid-lowering prescriptions (clinician behavior), medication adherence (participant behavior), and LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol levels (health outcome impact) pre- and post-disclosure. Data were collected from electronic health records and claims. RESULTS: The cohort included 96 participants of mean age 57 (22-90) years with median follow-up of 14 (range, 3-39) months. Most (90%) had a hypercholesterolemia diagnosis but no specific FH diagnosis before disclosure; 29% had an FH diagnosis post-disclosure. After disclosure, clinicians made 36 prescription changes in 38% of participants, mostly in participants who did not achieve LDL cholesterol goals pre-disclosure (81%). However, clinicians wrote prescriptions for fewer participants post-disclosure (71/96, 74.0%) compared with pre-disclosure (81/96, 84.4%); side effects were documented for most discontinued prescriptions (23/25, 92%). Among the 16 participants with claims data, medication adherence improved (proportion of days covered pre-disclosure of 70% [SD, 24.7%] to post-disclosure of 79.1% [SD, 27.3%]; P=0.05). Among the 52 (54%) participants with LDL cholesterol values both before and after disclosure, average LDL cholesterol decreased from 147 to 132 mg/dL (P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Despite disclosure of an FH risk variant, nonprescribing and nonadherence to lipid-lowering therapy remained high. However, when clinicians intensified medication regimens and participants adhered to medications, lipid levels decreased.

Association of Pathogenic Variants in Hereditary Cancer Genes With Multiple Diseases.

Importance: Knowledge about the spectrum of diseases associated with hereditary cancer syndromes may improve disease diagnosis and management for patients and help to identify high-risk individuals. Objective: To identify phenotypes associated with hereditary cancer genes through a phenome-wide association study. Design, Setting, and Participants: This phenome-wide association study used health data from participants in 3 cohorts. The Electronic Medical Records and Genomics Sequencing (eMERGEseq) data set recruited predominantly healthy individuals from 10 US medical centers from July 16, 2016, through February 18, 2018, with a mean follow-up through electronic health records (EHRs) of 12.7 (7.4) years. The UK Biobank (UKB) cohort recruited participants from March 15, 2006, through August 1, 2010, with a mean (SD) follow-up of 12.4 (1.0) years. The Hereditary Cancer Registry (HCR) recruited patients undergoing clinical genetic testing at Vanderbilt University Medical Center from May 1, 2012, through December 31, 2019, with a mean (SD) follow-up through EHRs of 8.8 (6.5) years. Exposures: Germline variants in 23 hereditary cancer genes. Pathogenic and likely pathogenic variants for each gene were aggregated for association analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: Phenotypes in the eMERGEseq and HCR cohorts were derived from the linked EHRs. Phenotypes in UKB were from multiple sources of health-related data. Results: A total of 214 020 participants were identified, including 23 544 in eMERGEseq cohort (mean [SD] age, 47.8 [23.7] years; 12 611 women [53.6%]), 187 234 in the UKB cohort (mean [SD] age, 56.7 [8.1] years; 104 055 [55.6%] women), and 3242 in the HCR cohort (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [15.5] years; 2851 [87.9%] women). All 38 established gene-cancer associations were replicated, and 19 new associations were identified. These included the following 7 associations with neoplasms: CHEK2 with leukemia (odds ratio [OR], 3.81 [95% CI, 2.64-5.48]) and plasma cell neoplasms (OR, 3.12 [95% CI, 1.84-5.28]), ATM with gastric cancer (OR, 4.27 [95% CI, 2.35-7.44]) and pancreatic cancer (OR, 4.44 [95% CI, 2.66-7.40]), MUTYH (biallelic) with kidney cancer (OR, 32.28 [95% CI, 6.40-162.73]), MSH6 with bladder cancer (OR, 5.63 [95% CI, 2.75-11.49]), and APC with benign liver/intrahepatic bile duct tumors (OR, 52.01 [95% CI, 14.29-189.29]). The remaining 12 associations with nonneoplastic diseases included BRCA1/2 with ovarian cysts (OR, 3.15 [95% CI, 2.22-4.46] and 3.12 [95% CI, 2.36-4.12], respectively), MEN1 with acute pancreatitis (OR, 33.45 [95% CI, 9.25-121.02]), APC with gastritis and duodenitis (OR, 4.66 [95% CI, 2.61-8.33]), and PTEN with chronic gastritis (OR, 15.68 [95% CI, 6.01-40.92]). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this genetic association study analyzing the EHRs of 3 large cohorts suggest that these new phenotypes associated with hereditary cancer genes may facilitate early detection and better management of cancers. This study highlights the potential benefits of using EHR data in genomic medicine.

Cost-effectiveness of population-wide genomic screening for Lynch syndrome in the United States.

PURPOSE: Genomic screening for Lynch syndrome (LS) could prevent colorectal cancer (CRC) by identifying high-risk patients and instituting intensive CRC screening. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of a population-wide LS genomic screening vs family history-based screening alone in an unselected US population. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model including health states for precancer, stage-specific CRC, and death and assumed an inexpensive test cost of $200. We conducted sensitivity and threshold analyses to evaluate model uncertainty. RESULTS: Screening unselected 30-year-olds for LS variants resulted in 48 (95% credible range [CR] = 35-63) fewer overall CRC cases per 100,000 screened individuals, leading to 187 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; 95% CR = 123-260) gained at an incremental cost of $24.6 million (95% CR = $20.3 million-$29.1 million). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $132,200, with an 8% and 71% probability of being cost-effective at $100,000 and $150,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay thresholds, respectively. CONCLUSION: Population LS screening may be cost-effective in younger patient populations under a $150,000 willingness-to-pay per QALY threshold and with a relatively inexpensive test cost. Further reductions in testing costs and/or the inclusion of LS testing within a broader multiplex screening panel are needed for screening to become highly cost-effective.

Penetrance of Breast Cancer Susceptibility Genes From the eMERGE III Network.

Background: Unbiased estimates of penetrance are challenging but critically important to make informed choices about strategies for risk management through increased surveillance and risk-reducing interventions. Methods: We studied the penetrance and clinical outcomes of 7 breast cancer susceptibility genes (BRCA1, BRCA2, TP53, CHEK2, ATM, PALB2, and PTEN) in almost 13 458 participants unselected for personal or family history of breast cancer. We identified 242 female participants with pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in 1 of the 7 genes for penetrance analyses, and 147 women did not previously know their genetic results. Results: Out of the 147 women, 32 women were diagnosed with breast cancer at an average age of 52.8 years. Estimated penetrance by age 60 years ranged from 17.8% to 43.8%, depending on the gene. In clinical-impact analysis, 42.3% (95% confidence interval = 31.3% to 53.3%) of women had taken actions related to their genetic results, and 2 new breast cancer cases were identified within the first 12 months after genetic results disclosure. Conclusions: Our study provides population-based penetrance estimates for the understudied genes CHEK2, ATM, and PALB2 and highlights the importance of using unselected populations for penetrance studies. It also demonstrates the potential clinical impact of genetic testing to improve health care through early diagnosis and preventative screening.

A retrospective approach to evaluating potential adverse outcomes associated with delay of procedures for cardiovascular and cancer-related diagnoses in the context of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, health systems postponed non-essential medical procedures to accommodate surge of critically-ill patients. The long-term consequences of delaying procedures in response to COVID-19 remains unknown. We developed a high-throughput approach to understand the impact of delaying procedures on patient health outcomes using electronic health record (EHR) data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used EHR data from Vanderbilt University Medical Center's (VUMC) Research and Synthetic Derivatives. Elective procedures and non-urgent visits were suspended at VUMC between March 18, 2020 and April 24, 2020. Surgical procedure data from this period were compared to a similar timeframe in 2019. Potential adverse impact of delay in cardiovascular and cancer-related procedures was evaluated using EHR data collected from January 1, 1993 to March 17, 2020. For surgical procedure delay, outcomes included length of hospitalization (days), mortality during hospitalization, and readmission within six months. For screening procedure delay, outcomes included 5-year survival and cancer stage at diagnosis. RESULTS: We identified 416 surgical procedures that were negatively impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the same timeframe in 2019. Using retrospective data, we found 27 significant associations between procedure delay and adverse patient outcomes. Clinician review indicated that 88.9% of the significant associations were plausible and potentially clinically significant. Analytic pipelines for this study are available online. CONCLUSION: Our approach enables health systems to identify medical procedures affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate the effect of delay, enabling them to communicate effectively with patients and prioritize rescheduling to minimize adverse patient outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of Population-Wide Genomic Screening for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer in the United States.

Importance: Genomic screening for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) in unselected women offers an opportunity to prevent cancer morbidity and mortality, but the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of such screening have not been well studied. Objective: To estimate the lifetime incremental incidence of HBOC and the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of HBOC genomic screening in an unselected population vs family history-based testing. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this study conducted from October 27, 2017, to May 3, 2020, a decision analytic Markov model was developed that included health states for precancer, for risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) and risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), for earlier- and later-stage HBOC, after cancer, and for death. A complimentary cascade testing module was also developed to estimate outcomes in first-degree relatives. Age-specific RRM and RRSO uptake probabilities were estimated from the Geisinger MyCode Community Health Initiative and published sources. Parameters including RRM and RRSO effectiveness, variant-specific cancer risk, costs, and utilities were derived from published sources. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to evaluate model assumptions and uncertainty. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime cancer incidence, QALYs, life-years, and direct medical costs for genomic screening in an unselected population vs family history-based testing only were calculated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated as the difference in cost between strategies divided by the difference in QALYs between strategies. Earlier-stage and later-stage cancer cases prevented and total cancer cases prevented were also calculated. Results: The model found that population screening of 30-year-old women was associated with 75 (95% credible range [CR], 60-90) fewer overall cancer cases and 288 QALYs (95% CR, 212-373 QALYs) gained per 100 000 women screened, at an incremental cost of $25 million (95% CR, $21 millon to $30 million) vs family history-based testing; the ICER was $87 700 (78% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of $100 000 per QALY). In contrast, population screening of 45-year-old women was associated with 24 (95% CR, 18-29) fewer cancer cases and 97 QALYs (95% CR, 66-130 QALYs) gained per 100 000 women screened, at an incremental cost of $26 million (95% CR, $22 million to $30 million); the ICER was $268 200 (0% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of $100 000 per QALY). A scenario analysis without cascade testing increased the ICER to $92 600 for 30-year-old women and $354 500 for 45-year-old women. A scenario analysis assuming a 5% absolute decrease in mammography screening in women without a variant was associated with the potential for net harm (-90 QALYs per 100 000 women screened; 95% CR, -180 to 10 QALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that population HBOC screening may be cost-effective among younger women but not among older women. Cascade testing of first-degree relatives added a modest improvement in clinical and economic value. The potential for harm conferred by inappropriate reduction in mammography among noncarriers should be quantified.

Pharmacotherapy in Older Adults with Cardiovascular Disease: Report from an American College of Cardiology, American Geriatrics Society, and National Institute on Aging Workshop.

OBJECTIVES: To identify the top priority areas for research to optimize pharmacotherapy in older adults with cardiovascular disease (CVD). DESIGN: Consensus meeting. SETTING: Multidisciplinary workshop supported by the National Institute on Aging, the American College of Cardiology, and the American Geriatrics Society, February 6-7, 2017. PARTICIPANTS: Leaders in the Cardiology and Geriatrics communities, (officers in professional societies, journal editors, clinical trialists, Division chiefs), representatives from the NIA; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; Food and Drug Administration; Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Alliance for Academic Internal Medicine, Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, pharmaceutical industry, and trainees and early career faculty with interests in geriatric cardiology. MEASUREMENTS: Summary of workshop proceedings and recommendations. RESULTS: To better align older adults' healthcare preferences with their care, research is needed to improve skills in patient engagement and communication. Similarly, to coordinate and meet the needs of older adults with multiple comorbidities encountering multiple healthcare providers and systems, systems and disciplines must be integrated. The lack of data from efficacy trials of CVD medications relevant to the majority of older adults creates uncertainty in determining the risks and benefits of many CVD therapies; thus, developing evidence-based guidelines for older adults with CVD is a top research priority. Polypharmacy and medication nonadherence lead to poor outcomes in older people, making research on appropriate prescribing and deprescribing to reduce polypharmacy and methods to improve adherence to beneficial therapies a priority. CONCLUSION: The needs and circumstances of older adults with CVD differ from those that the current medical system has been designed to meet. Optimizing pharmacotherapy in older adults will require new data from traditional and pragmatic research to determine optimal CVD therapy, reduce polypharmacy, increase adherence, and meet person-centered goals. Better integration of the multiple systems and disciplines involved in the care of older adults will be essential to implement and disseminate best practices. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:371-380, 2019.

Predictors of Recurrent AKI.

Recurrent AKI is common among patients after hospitalized AKI and is associated with progressive CKD. In this study, we identified clinical risk factors for recurrent AKI present during index AKI hospitalizations that occurred between 2003 and 2010 using a regional Veterans Administration database in the United States. AKI was defined as a 0.3 mg/dl or 50% increase from a baseline creatinine measure. The primary outcome was hospitalization with recurrent AKI within 12 months of discharge from the index hospitalization. Time to recurrent AKI was examined using Cox regression analysis, and sensitivity analyses were performed using a competing risk approach. Among 11,683 qualifying AKI hospitalizations, 2954 patients (25%) were hospitalized with recurrent AKI within 12 months of discharge. Median time to recurrent AKI within 12 months was 64 (interquartile range 19-167) days. In addition to known demographic and comorbid risk factors for AKI, patients with longer AKI duration and those whose discharge diagnosis at index AKI hospitalization included congestive heart failure (primary diagnosis), decompensated advanced liver disease, cancer with or without chemotherapy, acute coronary syndrome, or volume depletion, were at highest risk for being hospitalized with recurrent AKI. Risk factors identified were similar when a competing risk model for death was applied. In conclusion, several inpatient conditions associated with AKI may increase the risk for recurrent AKI. These findings should facilitate risk stratification, guide appropriate patient referral after AKI, and help generate potential risk reduction strategies. Efforts to identify modifiable factors to prevent recurrent AKI in these patients are warranted.

Natural language processing improves identification of colorectal cancer testing in the electronic medical record.

BACKGROUND: Difficulty identifying patients in need of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening contributes to low screening rates. OBJECTIVE: To use Electronic Health Record (EHR) data to identify patients with prior CRC testing. DESIGN: A clinical natural language processing (NLP) system was modified to identify 4 CRC tests (colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy, fecal occult blood testing, and double contrast barium enema) within electronic clinical documentation. Text phrases in clinical notes referencing CRC tests were interpreted by the system to determine whether testing was planned or completed and to estimate the date of completed tests. SETTING: Large academic medical center. PATIENTS: 200 patients ≥ 50 years old who had completed ≥ 2 non-acute primary care visits within a 1-year period. MEASURES: Recall and precision of the NLP system, billing records, and human chart review were compared to a reference standard of human review of all available information sources. RESULTS: For identification of all CRC tests, recall and precision were as follows: NLP system (recall 93%, precision 94%), chart review (74%, 98%), and billing records review (44%, 83%). Recall and precision for identification of patients in need of screening were: NLP system (recall 95%, precision 88%), chart review (99%, 82%), and billing records (99%, 67%). LIMITATIONS: Small sample size and requirement for a robust EHR. CONCLUSIONS: Applying NLP to EHR records detected more CRC tests than either manual chart review or billing records review alone. NLP had better precision but marginally lower recall to identify patients who were due for CRC screening than billing record review.

Extracting timing and status descriptors for colonoscopy testing from electronic medical records.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates are low despite confirmed benefits. The authors investigated the use of natural language processing (NLP) to identify previous colonoscopy screening in electronic records from a random sample of 200 patients at least 50 years old. The authors developed algorithms to recognize temporal expressions and 'status indicators', such as 'patient refused', or 'test scheduled'. The new methods were added to the existing KnowledgeMap concept identifier system, and the resulting system was used to parse electronic medical records (EMR) to detect completed colonoscopies. Using as the 'gold standard' expert physicians' manual review of EMR notes, the system identified timing references with a recall of 0.91 and precision of 0.95, colonoscopy status indicators with a recall of 0.82 and precision of 0.95, and references to actually completed colonoscopies with recall of 0.93 and precision of 0.95. The system was superior to using colonoscopy billing codes alone. Health services researchers and clinicians may find NLP a useful adjunct to traditional methods to detect CRC screening status. Further investigations must validate extension of NLP approaches for other types of CRC screening applications.

Elevated urinary IL-18 levels at the time of ICU admission predict adverse clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Urine IL-18 (uIL-18) has demonstrated moderate capacity to predict acute kidney injury (AKI) and adverse outcomes in defined settings. Its ability to predict AKI and provide prognostic information in broadly selected, critically ill adults remains unknown. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: The study prospectively evaluated the capacity of uIL-18 measured within 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission to predict AKI, death, and receipt of acute dialysis in a large mixed-adult ICU population. RESULTS: Of 451 patients, 86 developed AKI within 48 hours of enrollment and had higher median uIL-18 levels [426 (interquartile range [IQR]: 152 to 1183) pg/mg creatinine] compared with those without AKI [248 (IQR: 120 to 559) pg/mg]. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for uIL-18 predicting subsequent AKI within 24 hours was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.54 to 0.69) and improved modestly to 0.67 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.81) in patients whose enrollment eGFR was >or=75 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). The highest median uIL-18 levels were observed in patients with sepsis at enrollment [508 (IQR: 230 to 1281) pg/mg], those receiving acute dialysis [571 (IQR: 161 to 1614) pg/mg] or dying [532 (IQR: 210 to 1614) pg/mg] within 28 days of ascertainment. After adjustment for a priori selected clinical predictors, uIL-18 remained independently predictive of composite outcome of death or acute dialysis within 28 days of ascertainment (odds ratio, 1.86 [95% CI: 1.31 to 2.64]). CONCLUSIONS: uIL-18 did not reliably predict AKI development, but did predict poor clinical outcomes in a broadly selected, critically ill adult population.

Development of a natural language processing system to identify timing and status of colonoscopy testing in electronic medical records.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates are low despite proven benefits. We developed natural language processing (NLP) algorithms to identify temporal expressions and status indicators, such as "patient refused" or "test scheduled." The authors incorporated the algorithms into the KnowledgeMap Concept Identifier system in order to detect references to completed colonoscopies within electronic text. The modified NLP system was evaluated using 200 randomly selected electronic medical records (EMRs) from a primary care population aged >/=50 years. The system detected completed colonoscopies with recall and precision of 0.93 and 0.92. The system was superior to a query of colonoscopy billing codes to determine screening status.

Fluconazole for empiric antifungal therapy in cancer patients with fever and neutropenia.

BACKGROUND: Several clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of fluconazole as empiric antifungal therapy in cancer patients with fever and neutropenia. Our objective was to assess the frequency and resource utilization associated with treatment failure in cancer patients given empiric fluconazole antifungal therapy in routine inpatient care. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of cancer patients treated with oral or intravenous fluconazole between 7/97 and 6/01 in a tertiary care hospital. The final study cohort included cancer patients with neutropenia (an absolute neutrophil count below 500 cells/mm3) and fever (a temperature above 38 degrees C or 100.4 degrees F), who were receiving at least 96 hours of parenteral antibacterial therapy prior to initiating fluconazole. Patients' responses to empiric therapy were assessed by reviewing patient charts. RESULTS: Among 103 cancer admissions with fever and neutropenia, treatment failure after initiating empiric fluconazole antifungal therapy occurred in 41% (95% confidence interval (CI) 31%-50%) of admissions. Patients with a diagnosis of hematological malignancy had increased risk of treatment failure (OR = 4.6, 95% CI 1.5-14.8). When treatment failure occurred the mean adjusted increases in length of stay and total costs were 7.4 days (95% CI 3.3-11.5) and $18,925 (95% CI 3,289-34,563), respectively. CONCLUSION: Treatment failure occurred in more than one-third of neutropenic cancer patients on fluconazole as empiric antifungal treatment for fever in routine clinical treatment. The increase in costs when treatment failure occurs is substantial.