R3-AFP score is a new composite tool to refine prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation.

Background & Aims: Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for liver transplantation (LT) based on pre-LT imaging ± alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) level, but discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent. Our aim was to design an explant-based recurrence risk reassessment score to refine prediction of recurrence after LT and provide a framework to guide post-LT management. Methods: Adult patients who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2018 for HCC in 47 centres were included. A prediction model for recurrence was developed using competing-risk regression analysis in a European training cohort (TC; n = 1,359) and tested in a Latin American validation cohort (VC; n=1,085). Results: In the TC, 76.4% of patients with HCC met the Milan criteria, and 89.9% had an AFP score of ≤2 points. The recurrence risk reassessment (R3)-AFP model was designed based on variables independently associated with recurrence in the TC (with associated weights): ≥4 nodules (sub-distribution of hazard ratio [SHR] = 1.88, 1 point), size of largest nodule (3-6 cm: SHR = 1.83, 1 point; >6 cm: SHR = 5.82, 5 points), presence of microvascular invasion (MVI; SHR = 2.69, 2 points), nuclear grade >II (SHR = 1.20, 1 point), and last pre-LT AFP value (101-1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 1.57, 1 point; >1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 2.83, 2 points). Wolber's c-index was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80), significantly superior to an R3 model without AFP (0.75; 95% CI 0.72-0.79; p = 0.01). Four 5-year recurrence risk categories were identified: very low (score = 0; 5.5%), low (1-2 points; 15.1%), high (3-6 points; 39.1%), and very high (>6 points; 73.9%). The R3-AFP score performed well in the VC (Wolber's c-index of 0.78; 95% CI 0.73-0.83). Conclusions: The R3 score including the last pre-LT AFP value (R3-AFP score) provides a user-friendly, standardised framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials for HCC not limited to the Milan criteria. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03775863. Lay summary: Considering discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent, reassessing the risk of recurrence after LT is critical to further refine the management of patients with HCC. In a large and international cohort of patients who underwent transplantation for HCC, we designed and validated the R3-AFP model based on variables independently associated with recurrence post-LT (number of nodules, size of largest nodule, presence of MVI, nuclear grade, and last pre-LT AFP value). The R3-AFP model including last available pre-LT AFP value outperformed the original R3 model only based on explant features. The final R3-AFP scoring system provides a robust framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials, irrespective of criteria used to select patients with HCC for LT.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: impact of expansion criteria in a multicenter cohort study from a high waitlist mortality region.

This study aimed to compare liver transplantation (LT) outcomes and evaluate the potential rise in numbers of LT candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of different allocation policies in a high waitlist mortality region. Three policies were applied in two Latin American cohorts (1085 HCC transplanted patients and 917 listed patients for HCC): (i) Milan criteria with expansion according to UCSF downstaging (UCSF-DS), (ii) the AFP score, and (iii) restrictive policy or Double Eligibility Criteria (DEC; within Milan + AFP score ≤2). Increase in HCC patient numbers was evaluated in an Argentinian prospective validation set (INCUCAI; NCT03775863). Expansion criteria in policy A showed that UCSF-DS [28.4% (CI 12.8-56.2)] or "all-comers" [32.9% (CI 11.9-71.3)] had higher 5-year recurrence rates compared to Milan, with 10.9% increase in HCC patients for LT. The policy B showed lower recurrence rates for AFP scores ≤2 points, even expanding beyond Milan criteria, with a 3.3% increase. Patients within DEC had lower 5-year recurrence rates compared with those beyond DEC [13.3% (CI 10.1-17.3) vs 24.2% (CI 17.4-33.1; P = 0.0006], without significant HCC expansion. In conclusion, although the application of a stricter policy may optimize the selection process, this restrictive policy may lead to ethical concerns in organ allocation (NCT03775863).

A changing etiologic scenario in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma in a multicenter cohort study from Latin America.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver transplantation (LT). Our study focused on changing trends of liver related HCC etiologies during the last years in Latin America. METHODS: From a cohort of 2761 consecutive adult LT patients between 2005 and 2012 in 17 different centers, 435 with HCC were included. Different periods including years 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 were considered. Etiology of liver disease was confirmed in the explant. RESULTS: Participating LT centers per country included 2 from Brazil (n=191), 5 transplant programs from Argentina (n=98), 2 from Colombia (n=65), 4 from Chile (n=49), 2 from Mexico (n=12), and 1 from Peru (n=11) and Uruguay (n=9). Chronic hepatitis C infection was the leading cause of HCC in the overall cohort (37%), followed by HBV (25%) and alcoholic liver disease (17%). NAFLD and cryptogenic cirrhosis accounted for 6% and 7%, respectively. While HCV decreased from 48% in 2005-06 to 26% in 2011-12, NAFLD increased from 1.8% to 12.8% during the same period, accounting for the third cause of HCC. This represented a 6-fold increase in NAFLD-HCC, whereas HCV had a 2-fold decrease. Patients with NAFLD were older, had lower pre-LT serum AFP values and similar 5-year survival and recurrence rates than non-NAFLD. CONCLUSION: There might be a global changing figure regarding etiologies of HCC in Latin America. This epidemiological change on the incidence of HCC in the world, although it has been reported, should still be confirmed in prospective studies.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: evaluation of the alpha-fetoprotein model in a multicenter cohort from Latin America.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The French alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model has recently shown superior results compared to Milan criteria (MC) for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) in European populations. The aim of this study was to explore the predictive capacity of the AFP model for HCC recurrence in a Latin-American cohort. METHODS: Three hundred twenty-seven patients with HCC were included from a total of 2018 patients transplanted at 15 centres. Serum AFP and imaging data were both recorded at listing. Predictability was assessed by the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) method. RESULTS: Overall, 82 and 79% of the patients were within MC and the AFP model respectively. NRI showed a superior predictability of the AFP model against MC. Patients with an AFP score >2 points had higher risk of recurrence at 5 years Hazard Ratio (HR) of 3.15 (P = 0.0001) and lower patient survival (HR = 1.51; P = 0.03). Among patients exceeding MC, a score ≤2 points identified a subgroup of patients with lower recurrence (5% vs 42%; P = 0.013) and higher survival rates (84% vs 45%; P = 0.038). In cases treated with bridging procedures, following restaging, a score >2 points identified a higher recurrence (HR 2.2, P = 0.12) and lower survival rate (HR 2.25, P = 0.03). A comparative analysis between HBV and non-HBV patients showed that the AFP model performed better in non-HBV patients. CONCLUSIONS: The AFP model could be useful in Latin-American countries to better select patients for LT in subgroups presenting with extended criteria. However, particular attention should be focused on patients with HBV.

Identifying patients at higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation in a multicenter cohort study from Argentina.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The Up-to-7 criteria on the basis of the explanted liver features categorize patients at higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT). The aim of this study was to propose a novel pretransplant scoring system to predict recurrence including pre-LT data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From 763 consecutive adult patients who underwent transplantation in four LT centers from Argentina, 124 patients with HCC were included. A scoring system was developed in 87 patients from pre-LT risk factors for recurrence as determined by hazard ratios (HRs) from a multivariate Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Overall survival and recurrence rates at 5 years were 63.3 and 13.7%, respectively, during a follow-up period of 3.5±2.2 years. Variables associated with HCC recurrence on multivariate analysis were α-fetoprotein more than 100 ng/ml (HR=5.6, P=0.001) and tumor beyond Up-to-7 imaging criteria (HR=6.3, P=0.001). Bootstrap validation showed that overfitting was negligible. Scoring points were assigned as follows (0-2 points): pre-LT α-fetoprotein more than 100 ng/ml (presence=1 point, absence=0 point), and tumor beyond Up-to-7 imaging criteria (presence=1 point, absence=0 point). AUROC curve indicated a c-statistic of 0.74 (0.58-0.88, P=0.003). Two distinct subgroups of patients were identified with a cut-off more than or equal to 1 point (62% sensitivity and 82% specificity): low risk (0 point) and high risk (1-2 points). The 5-year recurrence rate was 9.4 and 44.5% (P=0.0001) and the 5-year overall survival was 78.1 and 34.8% (P=0.0001) in the low-risk and high-risk groups, respectively. CONCLUSION: This scoring model may be a useful additional tool for HCC recurrence risk stratification before LT. Prospective studies are needed to evaluate our model.

Predicting early discharge from hospital after liver transplantation (ERDALT) at a single center: a new model.

BACKGROUND & RATIONALE: Limited information related to Liver Transplantation (LT) costs in South America exists. Additionally, costs analysis from developed countries may not provide comparable models for those in emerging economies. We sought to evaluate a predictive model of Early Discharge from Hospital after LT (ERDALT = length of hospital stay ≤ 8 days). A predictive model was assessed based on the odds ratios (OR) from a multivariate regression analysis in a cohort of consecutively transplanted adult patients in a single center from Argentina and internally validated with bootstrapping technique. RESULTS: ERDALT was applicable in 34 of 289 patients (11.8%). Variables independently associated with ERDALT were MELD exception points OR 1.9 (P = 0.04), surgery time < 4 h OR 3.8 (P = 0.013), < 5 units of blood products consumption (BPC) OR 3.5 (P = 0.001) and early weaning from mechanical intubation OR 6.3 (P = 0.006). Points in the predictive scoring model were allocated as follows: MELD exception points (absence = 0 points, presence = 1 point), surgery time < 4 h (0-2 points), < 5 units of BPC (0-2 points), and early weaning (0-3 points). Final scores ranged from 0 to 8 points with a c-statistic of 0.83 (95% CI 0.77-0.90; P < 0.0001). Transplant costs were significantly lower in patients with ERDALT (median $23,078 vs. $28,986; P < 0.0001). Neither lower patient and graft survival, nor higher rates of short-term re-hospitalization and acute rejection events after discharge were observed in patients with ERDALT. In conclusion, the ERDALT score identifies patients suitable for early discharge with excellent outcomes after transplantation. This score may provide applicable models particularly for emerging economies.

Is recurrence rate of incidental hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation similar to previously known HCC? towards a predictive recurrence score.

BACKGROUND: Incidental hepatocellular carcinoma (iHCC) generates uncertainty over risk of recurrence after liver transplantation (LT). AIM: To compare recurrence between iHCC and confirmed HCC diagnosed prior to transplant based on imaging criteria (cHCC). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Fifty-four HCC patients were analyzed from a series of 309 consecutive adult transplanted patients. We developed a recurrence predicting score (RPS) applying ORs based on pathologic risk variables. RESULTS: Incidence of iHCC was 4.8% (n = 15) and overall recurrence 12.9% (cHCC 15.4% and iHCC 7%; P = 0.39). Variables included in the RPS were: microvascular invasion OR 17.8 (1.78-178.97; P = 0.014: 2 points), neural invasion OR 15.5 (1.13-212.17; P = 0.04: 1.5 points), nuclear grade > II OR 9.3 (1.17-74.84; P = 0.035: 1 point), and beyond Up-to 7 criteria OR 13.1 (1.66-103.67; P = 0.015: 1.5 points). Two risk groups were identified: low risk for recurrence (0-1 point) and intermediate-high risk groups (2-6 points). Low risk category remained an independent predictor of recurrence: OR 0.11 (0.01-0.67; P = 0.017); AUROC of 0.75 (0.54-0.96). A tendency towards more patients categorized as low risk group among iHCC patients was observed (69.2%; P = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: In this series iHCC was not associated to lower risk of recurrence when compared to cHCC. We propose application of an RPS as a clinical tool for recurrence risk estimation.

Resecciones por hepatocarcinoma en pacientes con hepatopatía crónica subyacente / Resections by hepatocarcinoma in patients with underlying chronic hepatopatía

Antecedentes: Algunos factores que generan una alta morbilidad de hapatectomías en pacientes con carcinoma hepatocelular sobre hepatopatías crónicas pueden modificarse para aumentar la aplicabilidad y reducir la morbilidad. Objetivo: Analizar las estrategias utilizadas en la selección de pacientes candidatos a la resección, su evaluación funcional y el manejo preoperatorio. Lugar: Unidad de cirugía hepatobiliar. Diseño: Coherte retrospectivo. Población: 42 pacientes con CHC sobre hepatopatía crónica (11 fibrosis, 31 cirrosis) que recibieron 44 hepatectomías entre 1995 y 2005. Método: Se analizaron los criterios de selección, tipos de resección, manejo anestésico, requerimientos transfusionales, morbilidad y supervivencia alejada. Análisis estadísticos con log-rank test y Kaplan Meier. Resultados: De las 44 resecciones, 33 (75%) fueron hepatectomías menores. de ellas, 20 (60%) resecciones segmento-orientadas. Sólo 25% de los casos recibió sangre de banco. La morbilidad fue de 23% y la mortalidad 2,3%. La supervivencia actuarial a 1 y 5 años fue de 85 y 50% respectivamente, 72 y 50% libre de enfermedad. Conclusiones: Una correcta selección y racional manejo anestésico y de táctica quirúrgica permite obtener resultados alentadores con morbimortalidad similar a las hepatectomías en pacientes con fusión hepática normal.

Análisis de la morbi-mortalidad en 225 resecciones hepáticas / Results of liver resections

Antecedentes: La mortalidad en hepatectomías electivas se encuentra en cifras inferiores al 5 por ciento en pacientes seleccionados. Existen condiciones clínicas que implican un mayor riesgo de morbimortalidad. Las resecciones en donantes vivos para trasplantes hepáticos crean una nueva situación: exponer a individuos sanos a una cirugía compleja. Objetivo: Evaluar los resultados obtenidos en resecciones hepáticas en diferentes situaciones clínicas. Lugar de aplicación: Unidad de cirugía hepatobiliar. Diseño: Retrospectivo estratificado. Población: 225 resecciones hepáticas en 217 pacientes. Métodos: Estratificación en: grupo 1 (n=79) donantes vivos; grupo 2 (n=49) resecciones por patología benigna; grupo 3 (n=53) resecciones por tumores malignos sobre hígado normal; y grupo 4 (n=49) resecciones por tumores malignos sobre disfunción hepática. Variables analizadas: edad; riesgo quirúrgico (ASA); tipo de resección; tiempo de internación postoperatoria; complicaciones intra y postoperatorias y mortalidad a 60 días. Análisis estadístico: chi cuadrado, tests de Fisher, Student y estudios de regresión uni y multivariada. Resultados: La morbilidad global fue de 26,6 por ciento. El 19 por ciento se relacionó con el procedimiento quirúrgico. La morbilidad intraoperatoria fue 1,3 por ciento. Los pacientes ASA 3 y 4 (único predictor independiente) y las resecciones en hígados patológicos estuvieron significativamente asociados al riesgo de desarrollar complicaciones y/o muerte. La mortalidad global fue de 2 por ciento, siendo nula en los grupos 1 y 2, 1,8 por ciento en el grupo 3 y 8 por ciento en el grupo 4. Hubo una tendencia, aunque no significativa, a observar fístulas biliares en pacientes del grupo 1 y en resecciones múltiples. Conclusiones: En pacientes con co-morbilidad, las resecciones hepáticas son factibles con una adecuada selección