Preferred study designs to support a comparative therapeutic strategy question in oncology: a vignette study.

INTRODUCTION: Some therapeutic strategy questions in oncology could be answered with studies using observational data. Target trial emulation is the application of design principles from randomized controlled trials to the analysis of observational data, to reduce design-induced biases. Our objective was to determine which type of study physicians would preferably plan to answer a comparative effectiveness question lacking evidence in oncology. METHODS: We launched an online survey among physicians specialized in oncology. We constructed a vignette-based inquiry where vignettes described study scenarios which could be conducted to answer the predefined question. We designed six vignettes described by study design (randomized controlled trial or observational study with a trial emulation framework), main study characteristics, probability of the study succeeding and anticipated delay before results availability. Participants randomly assessed five pair-wise comparisons of the vignettes and were asked which study they would preferably plan by using a Likert scale. The main outcome was the evaluation of clinicians' preferences for each pairwise comparison. Mean and median preference scores were calculated. RESULTS: 213 participants, specialized in many tumor types, assessed at least one comparison with 82% reporting France as their country of affiliation. The interquartile range was -4 to 4 across pairwise comparisons. The median preference score was in disfavor of the monocentric randomized controlled trial for the five comparisons where it appeared. The median preference score was strongly in favor of the multicentric national emulated trial when compared to the monocentric emulated trial 4 [IQ 2.5-4]. The mean preference score was the highest for the large European observational study 1.14 (SD 3.33), while the mean preference score was the lowest for the monocentric randomized controlled trial -1.86 (SD 2.93). CONCLUSION: No study design was strongly preferred, but the monocentric randomized controlled trial was the least favored study in pair-wise comparisons. The planification of the new research is a compromise between scientific soundness, feasibility, cost, and time before obtaining results. We need to have the right answers to the right questions at the right time.

Protective effect of height on long-term survival of resectable lung cancer: a new feature of the lung cancer paradox.

INTRODUCTION: Unlike most malignancies, higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with a reduced risk of lung cancer and improved prognosis after surgery. However, it remains controversial whether height, one of determinants of BMI, is associated with survival independently of BMI and other confounders. METHODS: We extracted data on all consecutive patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer included in Epithor, the French Society of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery database, over a 16-year period. Height was analysed as a continuous variable, and then categorised into four or three categories, according to sex-specific quantiles. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association of height with survival, adjusted for age, tobacco consumption, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), WHO performance status (WHO PS), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, extent of resection, histological type, stage of disease and centre as a random effect, as well as BMI in a further analysis. RESULTS: The study included 61 379 patients. Higher height was significantly associated with better long-term survival after adjustment for other variables (adjusted HR 0.97 per 10 cm higher height, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99); additional adjustment for BMI resulted in an identical HR. The prognostic impact of height was further confirmed by stratifying by age, ASA class, WHO PS and histological type. When stratifying by BMI class, there was no evidence of a differential association (p=0.93). When stratifying by stage of disease, the prognostic significance of height was maintained for all stages except IIIB-IV. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that height is an independent prognostic factor of resectable lung cancer.

Immunomodulators for immunocompromised patients hospitalized for COVID-19: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Background: Although immunomodulators have established benefit against the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in general, it is uncertain whether such agents improve outcomes without increasing the risk of secondary infections in the specific subgroup of previously immunocompromised patients. We assessed the effect of immunomodulators on outcomes of immunocompromised patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Methods: The protocol was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022335397). MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and references of relevant articles were searched up to 01-06-2022. Authors of potentially eligible randomized controlled trials were contacted to provide data on immunocompromised patients randomized to immunomodulators vs control (i.e., placebo or standard-of-care). Findings: Eleven randomized controlled trials involving 397 immunocompromised patients hospitalized for COVID-19 were included. Ten trials had low risk of bias. There was no difference between immunocompromised patients randomized to immunomodulators vs control regarding mortality [30/182 (16.5%) vs 41/215 (19.1%); RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.61-1.41; p = 0.74], secondary infections (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.64-1.58; p = 0.99) and change in World Health Organization ordinal scale from baseline to day 15 (weighed mean difference 0.27, 95% CI -0.09-0.63; p = 0.15). In subgroup analyses including only patients with hematologic malignancy, only trials with low risk of bias, only trials administering IL-6 inhibitors, or only trials administering immunosuppressants, there was no difference between comparators regarding mortality. Interpretation: Immunomodulators, compared to control, were not associated with harmful or beneficial outcomes, including mortality, secondary infections, and change in ordinal scale, when administered to immunocompromised patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Funding: Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation.

Assessing Long-term Treatment Benefits Using Complementary Statistical Approaches: An In Silico Analysis of the Phase III Keynote-045 and Checkmate-214 Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials.

BACKGROUND: The Keynote-045 trial illustrates that the long-term benefit (LTB) of treatment does not always translate to improved progression-free survival (PFS). Milestone survival and flexible parametric survival model with cure (FPCM) have been proposed as complementary statistical approaches to more comprehensively evaluate LTBs of treatments. OBJECTIVE: The current study compares milestone survival and FPCM analyses to evaluate treatment effects of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) phase III trials. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Individual patient data, from initial and follow-up analyses of Keynote-045 (urothelial cancer) and Checkmate-214 (advanced renal cell carcinoma), were reconstructed for PFS. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Each trial was reanalyzed using the Cox proportional hazard regression and two complementary methods (milestone survival and FPCM) to estimate treatment impact on the LTB. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: For each trial, there was evidence of nonproportional hazards. For the long-term analysis of the Keynote-045 trial, FPCM identified a time-dependent effect on PFS, but the Cox model found no statistical difference in PFS (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-1.08). Milestone survival and FPCM identified improvements in the LTB fractions. This was consistent with the results from the reanalysis of Keynote-045, based on the shorter follow-up, although the LTB fraction was not retained. The increase in PFS in Checkmate-214 was identified by both Cox model and FPCM. Experimental treatment-dependent improvement in the LTB fraction was demonstrated using milestone survival and FPCM. The LTB fraction estimated with FPCM was consistent with the results from the reanalysis of the shorter follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Although ICIs show substantial shifts toward LTBs in terms of PFS, based on a conventional Kaplan-Meier or Cox model analysis, our approach provides an alternative assessment of benefit-risk ratios for new therapeutics and facilitates communicating risk to patients. Kidney patients treated with ICIs can be counseled that they are potentially cured, but future work will need to definitively validate this conclusion. PATIENT SUMMARY: Although immune checkpoint inhibitor treatments show substantial shifts toward long-term benefits in terms of progression-free survival, a more rigorous attempt to quantify this shift, rather than simply using a Kaplan-Meier estimate or comparing progression-free survival curves using the classic Cox model, is warranted. Our results suggest that advanced renal cell carcinoma patients who had not received a previous treatment are functionally cured by nivolumab and ipilimumab, which is not the case for second-line urothelial carcinoma.

Improving Diagnosis of Pulmonary Mucormycosis: Leads From a Contemporary National Study of 114 Cases.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary mucormycosis (PM) is a life-threatening invasive mold infection. Diagnosis of mucormycosis is challenging and often delayed, resulting in higher mortality. RESEARCH QUESTION: Are the disease presentation of PM and contribution of diagnosis tools influenced by the patient's underlying condition? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: All PM cases from six French teaching hospitals between 2008 and 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Cases were defined according to updated European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycoses Study Group criteria with the addition of diabetes and trauma as host factors and positive serum or tissue PCR as mycologic evidence. Thoracic CT scans were reviewed centrally. RESULTS: A total of 114 cases of PM were recorded, including 40% with disseminated forms. Main underlying conditions were hematologic malignancy (49%), allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (21%), and solid organ transplantation (17%). When disseminated, main dissemination sites were the liver (48%), spleen (48%), brain (44%), and kidneys (37%). Radiologic presentation included consolidation (58%), pleural effusion (52%), reversed halo sign (26%), halo sign (24%), vascular abnormalities (26%), and cavity (23%). Serum quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was positive in 42 (79%) of 53 patients and BAL in 46 (50%) of 96 patients. Results of transthoracic lung biopsy were diagnostic in 8 (73%) of 11 patients with noncontributive BAL. Overall 90-day mortality was 59%. Patients with neutropenia more frequently displayed an angioinvasive presentation, including reversed halo sign and disseminated disease (P < .05). Serum qPCR was more contributive in patients with neutropenia (91% vs 62%; P = .02), and BAL was more contributive in patients without neutropenia (69% vs 41%; P = .02). Serum qPCR was more frequently positive in patients with a > 3 cm main lesion (91% vs 62%; P = .02). Overall, positive qPCR was associated with an early diagnosis (P = .03) and treatment onset (P = .01). INTERPRETATION: Neutropenia and radiologic findings influence disease presentation and contribution of diagnostic tools during PM. Serum qPCR is more contributive in patients with neutropenia and BAL examination in patients without neutropenia. Results of lung biopsies are highly contributive in cases of noncontributive BAL.

Prognostic score and sex-specific nomograms to predict survival in resectable lung cancer: A French nationwide study from the Epithor cohort database.

Background: Prognostic assessment in patients undergoing cancer treatments is of paramount importance to plan subsequent management. In resectable lung cancer availability of an easy-to use nomogram to predict long-term outcome would be extremely useful to identify high-risk patients in the era of perioperative targeted and immune therapies. Methods: We retrieved clinical, surgical and pathological data of all consecutive patients included in Epithor, the database of French Society of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, and operated on between 2003 and 2020 for non-small cell lung cancer in a curative intent. The primary endpoint was overall survival up to 5 years. We assessed prognostic significance of available variables using Cox modelling, in the whole dataset, and in men and in women separately, and performed temporal validation. Finally, we constructed two sex-specific nomograms. Survivals by fifths of score were assessed in the development and temporal validation sets. Findings: The study included 62,633 patients (43,551 men and 19,082 women). Median survival time was 9.2 years. Nine factors had strong prognostic impact and were used to construct nomograms. The optimism-corrected c statistic for the prognostic score was 0.689 in the development sample, and 0.726 (95% CI 0.718-0.735) in the temporal validation sample. All differences between adjacent fifths of score were significant (P < 0.0001). Figures of 3-year OS by fifths of score were 92.2%, 83.0%, 74.3%, 64.0%, and 43.4%, respectively, in the development set and 93.3%, 88.4%, 81.0%, 73.7%, 55.7% in the temporal validation set. Performance of score was maintained when stratifying by stage of diseases. Interpretation: In the present work, we report evidence that long-term overall survival after resection of NSCLC can be predicted by an easy to construct and use composite score taking into account both host and tumour related factors. Funding: Epithor is funded by FSTCVS.

Enriching single-arm clinical trials with external controls: possibilities and pitfalls.

For the past decade, it has become commonplace to provide rapid answers and early patient access to innovative treatments in the absence of randomized clinical trials (RCT), with benefits estimated from single-arm trials. This trend is important in oncology, notably when assessing new targeted therapies. Some of those uncontrolled trials further include an external/synthetic control group as an innovative way to provide an indirect comparison with a pertinent control group. We aimed to provide some guidelines as a comprehensive tool for (1) the critical appraisal of those comparisons or (2) for performing a single-arm trial. We used the example of ciltacabtagene autoleucel for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma after 3 or more treatment lines as an illustrative example. We propose a 3-step guidance. The first step includes the definition of an estimand, which encompasses the treatment effect and the targeted population (whole population or restricted to single-arm trial or external controls), reflecting a clinical question. The second step relies on the adequate selection of external controls from previous RCTs or real-world data from patient cohorts, registries, or electronic patient files. The third step consists of choosing the statistical approach targeting the treatment effect defined above and depends on the available data (individual-level data or aggregated external data). The validity of the treatment effect derived from indirect comparisons heavily depends on careful methodological considerations included in the proposed 3-step procedure. Because the level of evidence of a well-conducted RCT cannot be guaranteed, the evaluation is more important than in standard settings.

Rituximab vs Cyclophosphamide Induction Therapy for Patients With Granulomatosis With Polyangiitis.

Importance: Results of randomized clinical trials have demonstrated rituximab's noninferiority to cyclophosphamide as induction therapy for antineutrophil cytoplasm antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitides (AAV), with neither treatment having a specific advantage for granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA). However, post hoc analysis results have suggested that rituximab might be more effective than cyclophosphamide in inducing remission in patients with proteinase 3-positive AAV. Objective: To compare the effectiveness of rituximab and cyclophosphamide in inducing GPA remission in a large population of unselected patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study used multicenter target trial emulation observational data from 32 French hospitals in the French Vasculitis Study Group Registry. Groups were determined according to treatments received, without any intervention from the investigators. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to correct for baseline imbalance between groups. Participants included patients with newly diagnosed or relapsing GPA who satisfied American College of Rheumatology classification criteria and/or Chapel Hill Consensus Conference nomenclature. Data were analyzed from October 1, 2021, to May 31, 2022. Exposures: At least 1 infusion of rituximab or cyclophosphamide for induction therapy between April 1, 2008, and April 1, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was remission rate at month 6 (±2 months), with remission defined as a Birmingham Vasculitis Activity Score (BVAS) of 0 and prednisone dose of 10 mg/d or less. The BVAS is a validated tool for small-vessel vasculitis and used to assess the level of disease activity, with a numerical weight attached to each involved organ system. The BVAS has a range of 0 to 63 points; a score of 0 indicates no disease activity. Subgroup analyses included the primary outcome for patients with a new diagnosis, for most recently treated patients, and for patients with myeloperoxidase-ANCA positivity. Results: Among 194 patients with GPA included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 54 [15] years; 110 men [56.7%]), 165 (85.1%) had a new diagnosis, and 147 of 182 with data available (80.8%) had proteinase 3-ANCA positivity. Sixty-one patients received rituximab and 133 received cyclophosphamide for induction therapy. In the weighted analysis, the primary outcome was reached for 73.1% of patients receiving rituximab vs 40.1% receiving cyclophosphamide (relative risk [RR], 1.82 [95% CI, 1.22-2.73]; risk difference, 33.0% [95% CI, 12.2%-53.8%]; E value for RR, 3.05). Similar results were observed in the subgroup of patients with newly diagnosed GPA and those with a more recent treatment. In the subset of 27 patients with myeloperoxidase-ANCA-positive GPA, 8 of 10 rituximab recipients and 8 of 17 cyclophosphamide recipients met the primary end point (unweighted RR, 1.73 [95% CI, 0.96-3.11]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparativeness effectiveness study using clinical data, rituximab induction therapy for GPA was more frequently associated with remission than cyclophosphamide. These results inform clinical decision-making concerning the choice of remission induction therapy for this subset of patients with AAV.

Prospective external validation of biomarkers to predict acute graft-versus-host disease severity.

Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is still the major contributor to comorbidities and mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The use of plasmatic biomarkers to predict early outcomes has been advocated in the past decade. The purpose of this prospective noninterventional study was to test the ability of panels including 7 biomarkers (Elafin, HGF, IL2RA, IL8, REG3, ST2, and TNFRI), to predict day 28 (D28) complete response to steroid, D180 overall survival, and D180 nonrelapse mortality (NRM). Using previous algorithms developed by the Ann Arbor/MAGIC consortium, 204 patients with acute GVHD were prospectively included and biomarkers were measured at GVHD onset for all of them. Initial GVHD grade and bilirubin level were significantly associated with all those outcomes. After adjustment on clinical variables, biomarkers were associated with survival and NRM. In addition to clinical variables, biomarkers slightly improved the prediction of overall survival and NRM (concordance and net reclassification indexes). The potential benefit of adding biomarkers panel to clinical parameters was also investigated by decision curve analyses. The benefit of adding biomarkers to clinical parameters was however marginal for the D28 nonresponse and mortality endpoints.

Study designs for clinical trials applied to personalised medicine: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: Personalised medicine (PM) allows treating patients based on their individual demographic, genomic or biological characteristics for tailoring the 'right treatment for the right person at the right time'. Robust methodology is required for PM clinical trials, to correctly identify groups of participants and treatments. As an initial step for the development of new recommendations on trial designs for PM, we aimed to present an overview of the study designs that have been used in this field. DESIGN: Scoping review. METHODS: We searched (April 2020) PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library for all reports in English, French, German, Italian and Spanish, describing study designs for clinical trials applied to PM. Study selection and data extraction were performed in duplicate resolving disagreements by consensus or by involving a third expert reviewer. We extracted information on the characteristics of trial designs and examples of current applications of these approaches. The extracted information was used to generate a new classification of trial designs for PM. RESULTS: We identified 21 trial designs, 10 subtypes and 30 variations of trial designs applied to PM, which we classified into four core categories (namely, Master protocol, Randomise-all, Biomarker strategy and Enrichment). We found 131 clinical trials using these designs, of which the great majority were master protocols (86/131, 65.6%). Most of the trials were phase II studies (75/131, 57.2%) in the field of oncology (113/131, 86.3%). We identified 34 main features of trial designs regarding different aspects (eg, framework, control group, randomisation). The four core categories and 34 features were merged into a double-entry table to create a new classification of trial designs for PM. CONCLUSIONS: A variety of trial designs exists and is applied to PM. A new classification of trial designs is proposed to help readers to navigate the complex field of PM clinical trials.

O-RADS MRI Classification of Indeterminate Adnexal Lesions: Time-Intensity Curve Analysis Is Better Than Visual Assessment.

Background The MRI Ovarian-Adnexal Reporting and Data System (O-RADS) enables risk stratification of sonographically indeterminate adnexal lesions, partly based on time-intensity curve (TIC) analysis, which may not be universally available. Purpose To compare the diagnostic accuracy of visual assessment with that of TIC assessment of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI scans to categorize adnexal lesions as benign or malignant and to evaluate the influence on the O-RADS MRI score. Materials and Methods The European Adnex MR Study Group, or EURAD, database, a prospective multicenter study of women undergoing MRI for indeterminate adnexal lesions between March 2013 and March 2018, was queried retrospectively. Women undergoing surgery for an adnexal lesion with solid tissue were included. Solid tissue enhancement relative to outer myometrium was assessed visually and with TIC. Contrast material washout was recorded. Lesions were categorized according to the O-RADS MRI score with visual and TIC assessment. Per-lesion diagnostic accuracy was calculated. Results A total of 320 lesions (207 malignant, 113 benign) in 244 women (mean age, 55.3 years ± 15.8 [standard deviation]) were analyzed. Sensitivity for malignancy was 96% (198 of 207) and 76% (157 of 207) for TIC and visual assessment, respectively. TIC was more accurate than visual assessment (86% [95% CI: 81, 90] vs 78% [95% CI: 73, 82]; P < .001) for benign lesions, predominantly because of higher specificity (95% [95% CI: 92, 98] vs 76% [95% CI: 68, 81]). A total of 21% (38 of 177) of invasive lesions were rated as low risk visually. Contrast material washout and high-risk enhancement (defined as earlier enhancement than in the myometrium) were highly specific for malignancy for both TIC (97% [95% CI: 91, 99] and 94% [95% CI: 90, 97], respectively) and visual assessment (97% [95% CI: 92, 99] and 93% [95% CI: 88, 97], respectively). O-RADS MRI score was more accurate with TIC than with visual assessment (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.87 [95% CI: 0.83, 0.90] vs 0.73 [95% CI: 0.68, 0.78]; P < .001). Conclusion Time-intensity curve analysis was more accurate than visual assessment for achieving optimal diagnostic accuracy with the Ovarian-Adnexal Reporting and Data System MRI score. Clinical trial registration no. NCT01738789 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Vargas and Woo in this issue. An earlier incorrect version appeared online. This article was corrected on March 7, 2022.

Management of severe renal disease in anti-neutrophil-cytoplasmic-antibody-associated vasculitis: the place of rituximab and plasma exchange?

OBJECTIVE: The optimal induction therapy for severe glomerulonephritis of ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) is debated. We compared the efficacy of glucocorticoid and rituximab (RTX) or CYC induction therapy for severe AAV-related glomerulonephritis and evaluated the potential benefit of plasma exchange (PE) as adjunct therapy to CYC. METHODS: This retrospective, multicentre study included AAV patients with severe renal active disease (serum creatinine level ≥350 µmol/l and/or estimated glomerular filtration ratio ≤15 ml/min/1.73 m2). Propensity-score analysis was used to adjust for potential confounders. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2017, 153 patients with AAV-related glomerulonephritis were studied (96 [60%] men; mean [s.d.] age 63 [13.1] years): 19 (12%) were treated with RTX and 134 (88%) with CYC. Remission rates did not differ between RTX- and CYC-treated groups. Although more patients with RTX than CYC were dialysis-free at month (M) 12 (79% vs 68%), the difference was not significant after adjustment. Among 134 patients with CYC-treated glomerulonephritis, 76 (57%) also had PE. M3 and M6 remission rates were comparable for weighted CYC groups with or without PE. For weighted groups, the dialysis-free survival rate with CYC was higher with than without PE at M6 (72% vs 64%; odds ratio 2.58) and M12 (74% vs 60%; odds ratio 2.78) reaching statistical significance at M12. CONCLUSION: We could not find any difference between RTX and CYC as induction therapy for patients with severe AAV-related glomerulonephritis. In patients receiving CYC induction regimen, the addition of PE conferred short-term benefits with higher dialysis-free rate at M12.

Kidney Histopathology Can Predict Kidney Function in ANCA-Associated Vasculitides with Acute Kidney Injury Treated with Plasma Exchanges.

BACKGROUND: Data from the PEXIVAS trial challenged the role of plasma exchange (PLEX) in ANCA-associated vasculitides (AAV). We aimed to describe kidney biopsy from patients with AAV treated with PLEX, evaluate whether histopathologic findings could predict kidney function, and identify which patients would most benefit from PLEX. METHODS: We performed a multicenter, retrospective study on 188 patients with AAV and AKI treated with PLEX and 237 not treated with PLEX. The primary outcome was mortality or KRT at 12 months (M12). RESULTS: No significant benefit of PLEX for the primary outcome was found. To identify patients benefitting from PLEX, we developed a model predicting the average treatment effect of PLEX for an individual depending on covariables. Using the prediction model, 223 patients had a better predicted outcome with PLEX than without PLEX, and 177 of them had >5% increased predicted probability with PLEX compared with without PLEX of being alive and free from KRT at M12, which defined the PLEX-recommended group. Risk difference for death or KRT at M12 was significantly lower with PLEX in the PLEX-recommended group (-15.9%; 95% CI, -29.4 to -2.5) compared with the PLEX not recommended group (-4.8%; 95% CI, 14.9 to 5.3). Microscopic polyangiitis, MPO-ANCA, higher serum creatinine, crescentic and sclerotic classes, and higher Brix score were more frequent in the PLEX-recommended group. An easy to use score identified patients who would benefit from PLEX. The average treatment effect of PLEX for those with recommended treatment corresponded to an absolute risk reduction for death or KRT at M12 of 24.6%. CONCLUSIONS: PLEX was not associated with a better primary outcome in the whole study population, but we identified a subset of patients who could benefit from PLEX. However, these findings must be validated before utilized in clinical decision making.

Assessment of Treatment Effects and Long-term Benefits in Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials Using the Flexible Parametric Cure Model: A Systematic Review.

Importance: Compared with standard cytotoxic therapies, randomized immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) phase 3 trials reveal delayed benefits in terms of patient survival and/or long-term response. Such outcomes generally violate the assumption of proportional hazards, and the classical Cox proportional hazards regression model is therefore unsuitable for these types of analyses. Objective: To evaluate the ability of the flexible parametric cure model (FPCM) to estimate treatment effects and long-term responder fractions (LRFs) independently of prespecified time points. Evidence Review: This systematic review used reconstructed individual patient data from ICI advanced or metastatic melanoma and lung cancer phase 3 trials extracted from the literature. Trials published between January 1, 2010, and October 1, 2019, with long-term follow-up periods (maximum follow-up, ≥36 months in first line and ≥30 months otherwise) were selected to identify LRFs. Individual patient data for progression-free survival were reconstructed from the published randomized ICI phase 3 trial results. The FPCM was applied to estimate treatment effects on the overall population and on the following components of the population: LRF and progression-free survival in non-long-term responders. Results obtained were compared with treatment effects estimated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Findings: In this systematic review, among the 23 comparisons studied using the FPCM, a statistically significant association between the time-to-event component and experimental treatment was observed in the main analyses and confirmed in the sensitivity analyses of 18 comparisons. Results were discordant for 4 comparisons that were not significant by the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The LRFs varied from 1.5% to 12.7% for the control arms and from 4.6% to 38.8% for the experimental arms. Differences in LRFs varied from 2% to 29% and were significantly increased in the experimental compared with the control arms, except for 4 comparisons. Conclusions and Relevance: This systematic review of reconstructed individual patient data found that the FPCM was a complementary approach that provided a comprehensive and pertinent evaluation of benefit and risk by assessing whether ICI treatment was associated with an increased probability of patients being long-term responders or with an improved progression-free survival in patients who were not long-term responders.

The Reality of Lung Cancer Paradox: The Impact of Body Mass Index on Long-Term Survival of Resected Lung Cancer. A French Nationwide Analysis from the Epithor Database.

Obesity could have a protective effect in patients with lung cancer. We assessed the prognostic role of preoperative BMI on survival in patients who underwent lung resection for NSCLC. A total of 54,631 consecutive patients with resectable lung cancer within a 15-year period were extracted from Epithor (the French Society of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery database). Patient subgroups were defined according to body mass index (BMI): underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5 ≤ BMI < 25 kg/m2), overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30 kg/m2), and obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2). Underweight was associated with lower survival (unadjusted HRs 1.24 (1.16-1.33)) compared to normal weight, whereas overweight and obesity were associated with improved survival (0.95 (0.92-0.98) and 0.88 (0.84-0.92), respectively). The impact of BMI was confirmed when stratifying for sex or Charlson comorbidities index (CCI). Among patients with obesity, a higher BMI was associated with improved survival. After adjusting for period of study, age, sex, WHO performance status, CCI, side of tumor, extent of resection, histologic type, and stage of disease, the HRs for underweight, overweight, and obesity were 1.51 (1.41-1.63), 0.84 (0.81-0.87), and 0.80 (0.76-0.84), respectively. BMI is a strong and independent predictor of survival in patients undergoing surgery for NSCLC.

Addressing the issue of bias in observational studies: Using instrumental variables and a quasi-randomization trial in an ESME research project.

PURPOSE: Observational studies using routinely collected data are faced with a number of potential shortcomings that can bias their results. Many methods rely on controlling for measured and unmeasured confounders. In this work, we investigate the use of instrumental variables (IV) and quasi-trial analysis to control for unmeasured confounders in the context of a study based on the retrospective Epidemiological Strategy and Medical Economics (ESME) database, which compared overall survival (OS) with paclitaxel plus bevacizumab or paclitaxel alone as first-line treatment in patients with HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer (MBC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Causal interpretations and estimates can be made from observation data using IV and quasi-trial analysis. Quasi-trial analysis has the same conceptual basis as IV, however, instead of using IV in the analysis, a "superficial" or "pseudo" randomized trial is used in a Cox model. For instance, in a multicenter trial, instead of using the treatment variable, quasi-trial analysis can consider the treatment preference in each center, which can be informative, and then comparisons of results between centers or clinicians can be informative. RESULTS: In the original analysis, the OS adjusted for major factors was significantly longer with paclitaxel and bevacizumab than with paclitaxel alone. Using the center-treatment preference as an instrument yielded to concordant results. For the quasi-trial analysis, a Cox model was used, adjusted on all factors initially used. The results consolidate those obtained with a conventional multivariate Cox model. CONCLUSION: Unmeasured confounding is a major concern in observational studies, and IV or quasi-trial analysis can be helpful to complement analysis of studies of this nature.

MUC5B promoter variant rs35705950 and rheumatoid arthritis associated interstitial lung disease survival and progression.

BACKGROUND: The major risk factor for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), MUC5B rs35705950, was found to be associated with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD). Whilst the MUC5B rs35705950 T risk allele has been associated with better survival in IPF, its impact on RA-ILD prognosis remains to be determined. Our objective was to explore the influence of MUC5B rs35705950 on survival and progression in RA-ILD. METHODS: Through an international retrospective observational study, patients with RA-ILD were genotyped for the MUC5B rs35705950 variant and consecutive pulmonary function tests (PFTs) findings were collected. Longitudinal data up to a 10-year follow-up were considered and analyzed using mixed regression models. Proportional hazards and joint proportional hazards models were used to analyze the association of baseline and longitudinal variables with lung transplant-free survival. Significant progression of RA-ILD was defined as at least an absolute or relative 10% decline of forced vital capacity at 2 years from baseline. RESULTS: Out of 321 registered patients, 261 were included in the study: 139 women (53.3%), median age at RA-ILD diagnosis 65 years (interquartile range [IQR] 57 to 71), 151 ever smokers (59.2%). Median follow-up was 3.5 years (IQR 1.3 to 6.6). Mortality rate was 32% (95%CI 19 to 42) at 10 years. The MUC5B rs35705950 variant did not impact lung transplant-free survival (HR for the T risk allele carriers=1.26; 95%CI 0.61 to 2.62; P=0.53). Decline in pulmonary function at 2 years was not influenced by MUC5B rs35705950 (OR=0.95; 95%CI 0.44 to 2.05; P=0.89), irrespective of the HRCT pattern. CONCLUSION: In this study, the MUC5B rs35705950 promoter variant did not influence transplant- free survival or decline in pulmonary function in patients with RA-ILD.

Tolerance and Effectiveness of Targeted Therapies in Aged Patients with Metastatic Melanoma.

PURPOSE: Melanoma's incidence is increasing, and elderly people could be significantly impacted since the majority occurs in people over 65 years of age. Combined BRAF and MEK targeted therapies (TT) are current standard regimen for BRAF mutated metastatic melanoma (MM). Except for subgroups of pivotal trials, little data are available for TT in this population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Outcomes were explored in real life patients from MelBase, a French multicentric biobank dedicated to the prospective follow-up of unresectable stage III or IV melanoma. Patients treated by BRAF TT and/or MEK TT combined or not, were included from 2013 to 2017 in 2 groups: group 1 ≤ 65-year-old (yo), group 2 > 65 yo, analyzed for tolerance and efficacy. RESULTS: 353 patients were included: 231 in group 1, 122 in group 2. Median follow-up was 12 months (M). Median time of treatment was 6.9 M. A total of 80% had at least one Adverse Effect (AE). Most frequent AE (all grades) were mainly skin and subcutaneous, general, and gastrointestinal disorders. A total of 31% of AE were grade 3-4: 28% in group 1 and 39% in group 2 (p = 0.05). No differences were observed in all AE grades proportion, dose modifications, interruptions, and discontinuations. For each group, median overall survival was 20.3 M (CI 95%: 15.5-27.9) and 16.3 M (CI: 14.5-26.9), respectively (p = 0.8). Median progression free survival was 7.8 M (6.4-9.9) and 7.7 M (CI: 5.8-11.3) (p = 0.4). Objective response rate was 59% and 50% (p = 0.6). CONCLUSION: This study on a large multicentric cohort is the first to assess that TT is well tolerated in elderly BRAF-mutated patients such as in patients younger than 65. Efficacy was similar between groups with outcomes reaching those from pivotal studies. There is thus no argument against using TT in elderly people, although an onco-geriatric opinion is welcome for the most vulnerable.