Statistics of Rare Events.

Rare events can sometime arise in clinical development of treatments. For example, CYPIDES was a single-arm study of the CYP11A1 inhibitor ODM-208 to treat metastatic prostate cancer.1 Preclinical testing of the compound identified elevated thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and bilirubin in rats and dogs. Unusual findings in preclinical testing focus attention and magnify evidence if similar results occur in humans. By analogy, imagine a murder trial in which the only evidence against the defendant arose from a database search of DNA matching the partial profile found at the crime scene. Multiple people could match, so without other evidence, the perpetrator could be any of them.

Imaging and biopsy of HIV-infected individuals undergoing analytic treatment interruption.

Background: HIV persistence during antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the principal obstacle to cure. Lymphoid tissue is a compartment for HIV, but mechanisms of persistence during ART and viral rebound when ART is interrupted are inadequately understood. Metabolic activity in lymphoid tissue of patients on long-term ART is relatively low, and increases when ART is stopped. Increases in metabolic activity can be detected by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography (FDG-PET) and may represent sites of HIV replication or immune activation in response to HIV replication. Methods: FDG-PET imaging will be used to identify areas of high and low metabolic uptake in lymphoid tissue of individuals undergoing long-term ART. Baseline tissue samples will be collected. Participants will then be randomized 1:1 to continue or interrupt ART via analytic treatment interruption (ATI). Image-guided biopsy will be repeated 10 days after ATI initiation. After ART restart criteria are met, image-guided biopsy will be repeated once viral suppression is re-achieved. Participants who continued ART will have a second FDG-PET and biopsies 12-16 weeks after the first. Genetic characteristics of HIV populations in areas of high and low FDG uptake will be assesed. Optional assessments of non-lymphoid anatomic compartments may be performed to evaluate HIV populations in distinct anatomic compartments. Anticipated results: We anticipate that PET standardized uptake values (SUV) will correlate with HIV viral RNA in biopsies of those regions and that lymph nodes with high SUV will have more viral RNA than those with low SUV within a patient. Individuals who undergo ATI are expected to have diverse viral populations upon viral rebound in lymphoid tissue. HIV populations in tissues may initially be phylogenetically diverse after ATI, with emergence of dominant viral species (clone) over time in plasma. Dominant viral species may represent the same HIV population seen before ATI. Discussion: This study will allow us to explore utility of PET for identification of HIV infected cells and determine whether high FDG uptake respresents areas of HIV replication, immune activation or both. We will also characterize HIV infected cell populations in different anatomic locations. The protocol will represent a platform to investigate persistence and agents that may target HIV populations. Study protocol registration: Identifier: NCT05419024.

A Randomized, Controlled Trial of Ebola Virus Disease Therapeutics.

BACKGROUND: Although several experimental therapeutics for Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been developed, the safety and efficacy of the most promising therapies need to be assessed in the context of a randomized, controlled trial. METHODS: We conducted a trial of four investigational therapies for EVD in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where an outbreak began in August 2018. Patients of any age who had a positive result for Ebola virus RNA on reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay were enrolled. All patients received standard care and were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to intravenous administration of the triple monoclonal antibody ZMapp (the control group), the antiviral agent remdesivir, the single monoclonal antibody MAb114, or the triple monoclonal antibody REGN-EB3. The REGN-EB3 group was added in a later version of the protocol, so data from these patients were compared with those of patients in the ZMapp group who were enrolled at or after the time the REGN-EB3 group was added (the ZMapp subgroup). The primary end point was death at 28 days. RESULTS: A total of 681 patients were enrolled from November 20, 2018, to August 9, 2019, at which time the data and safety monitoring board recommended that patients be assigned only to the MAb114 and REGN-EB3 groups for the remainder of the trial; the recommendation was based on the results of an interim analysis that showed superiority of these groups to ZMapp and remdesivir with respect to mortality. At 28 days, death had occurred in 61 of 174 patients (35.1%) in the MAb114 group, as compared with 84 of 169 (49.7%) in the ZMapp group (P = 0.007), and in 52 of 155 (33.5%) in the REGN-EB3 group, as compared with 79 of 154 (51.3%) in the ZMapp subgroup (P = 0.002). A shorter duration of symptoms before admission and lower baseline values for viral load and for serum creatinine and aminotransferase levels each correlated with improved survival. Four serious adverse events were judged to be potentially related to the trial drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Both MAb114 and REGN-EB3 were superior to ZMapp in reducing mortality from EVD. Scientifically and ethically sound clinical research can be conducted during disease outbreaks and can help inform the outbreak response. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; PALM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03719586.).

Effect of HIV Antibody VRC01 on Viral Rebound after Treatment Interruption.

BACKGROUND: The discovery of potent and broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has made passive immunization a potential strategy for the prevention and treatment of HIV infection. We sought to determine whether passive administration of VRC01, a bNAb targeting the HIV CD4-binding site, can safely prevent or delay plasma viral rebound after the discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We conducted two open-label trials (AIDS Clinical Trials Group [ACTG] A5340 and National Institutes of Health [NIH] 15-I-0140) of the safety, side-effect profile, pharmacokinetic properties, and antiviral activity of VRC01 in persons with HIV infection who were undergoing interruption of ART. RESULTS: A total of 24 participants were enrolled, and one serious alcohol-related adverse event occurred. Viral rebound occurred despite plasma VRC01 concentrations greater than 50 µg per milliliter. The median time to rebound was 4 weeks in the A5340 trial and 5.6 weeks in the NIH trial. Study participants were more likely than historical controls to have viral suppression at week 4 (38% vs. 13%, P=0.04 by a two-sided Fisher's exact test in the A5340 trial; and 80% vs. 13%, P<0.001 by a two-sided Fisher's exact test in the NIH trial) but the difference was not significant at week 8. Analyses of virus populations before ART as well as before and after ART interruption showed that VRC01 exerted pressure on rebounding virus, resulting in restriction of recrudescent viruses and selection for preexisting and emerging antibody neutralization-resistant virus. CONCLUSIONS: VRC01 slightly delayed plasma viral rebound in the trial participants, as compared with historical controls, but it did not maintain viral suppression by week 8. In the small number of participants enrolled in these trials, no safety concerns were identified with passive immunization with a single bNAb (VRC01). (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; ACTG A5340 and NIH 15-I-0140 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT02463227 and NCT02471326 .).

Validity and power considerations on hypothesis testing under minimization.

Minimization, a dynamic allocation method, is gaining popularity especially in cancer clinical trials. Aiming to achieve balance on all important prognostic factors simultaneously, this procedure can lead to a substantial reduction in covariate imbalance compared with conventional randomization in small clinical trials. While minimization has generated enthusiasm, some controversy exists over the proper analysis of such a trial. Critics argue that standard testing methods that do not account for the dynamic allocation algorithm can lead to invalid statistical inference. Acknowledging this limitation, the International Conference on Harmonization E9 guideline suggests that 'the complexity of the logistics and potential impact on analyses be carefully evaluated when considering dynamic allocation'. In this article, we investigate the proper analysis approaches to inference in a minimization design for both continuous and time-to-event endpoints and evaluate the validity and power of these approaches under a variety of scenarios both theoretically and empirically. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Transient elastography for the detection of hepatic fibrosis in HIV-monoinfected adults with elevated aminotransferases on antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is increasingly used to assess liver fibrosis in viral hepatitis and fatty liver disease populations. Because the accuracy of VCTE in HIV-monoinfected populations has not been established, we evaluated its performance in assessing liver fibrosis in a cohort of HIV-monoinfected adults undergoing liver biopsy as part of a recently published clinical trial. METHODS: HIV-infected adults with elevated aminotransferase levels for at least 6 months while receiving antiretroviral therapy, and without chronic viral hepatitis or other known causes of liver disease, were prospectively evaluated by VCTE, other noninvasive markers of fibrosis, and percutaneous liver biopsy as part of a cross-sectional study examining liver pathology. RESULTS: Sixty-six patients were evaluated by VCTE and liver biopsy. The cohort was in the majority male (92%), with a median age of 50 years (range 17-68). Biopsy identified bridging fibrosis in 14 (21%) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in 38 (58%) participants. VCTE was unsuccessful or unreliable in seven participants (11%). In the 59 participants with reliable results, median liver stiffness measurement (LSM) was 5.9 kPa (range 3.3-29.2 kPa); 25 participants (42%) had a LSM above 7.1 kPa, a value consistent with increased liver stiffness in other populations. VCTE had good sensitivity and specificity with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 93% for detection of moderate fibrosis (Ishak F ≥ 2; 95% confidence interval 86-99%). CONCLUSIONS: In HIV-monoinfected adults with biopsy-proven liver disease, LSM by VCTE was the best noninvasive predictor of fibrosis. Our findings support the continued use of VCTE for fibrosis screening in HIV-monoinfected patients with elevated aminotransferases.

Four-Week Direct-Acting Antiviral Regimens in Noncirrhotic Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 1 Infection: An Open-Label, Nonrandomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for 6 weeks achieves sustained virologic response (SVR) rates of 95% in some patients. If effective, shorter therapeutic courses could improve adherence and treatment costs. OBJECTIVE: To determine factors predictive of SVR to 4 weeks of DAA treatment in patients with stage F0 to F2 liver fibrosis. DESIGN: Open-label, nonrandomized, phase 2a trial. (Clinical Trials.gov: NCT01805882). SETTING: Single-center. PATIENTS: 50 treatment-naive and predominantly African American patients with HCV genotype 1 infection and early-stage liver fibrosis were sequentially enrolled into 2 treatment groups. INTERVENTION: 25 participants received a 3-drug regimen consisting of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir plus GS-9451 for 4 weeks, and 25 received a 4-drug regimen consisting of ledipasvir, sofosbuvir, GS-9451, and GS-9669 for 4 weeks. MEASUREMENTS: The primary efficacy end point was SVR12 (HCV RNA level below the lower limit of quantification at posttreatment week 12). RESULTS: Forty percent (10 of 25) (95% CI, 21% to 61%) of patients in the 3-drug group and 20% (5 of 25) (CI, 7% to 41%) of those in the 4-drug group achieved SVR12. Exploratory analysis suggested that lower baseline HCV viral load, younger age, and HCV genotype 1b were associated with SVR12. Ten patients had baseline HCV variants conferring greater than 20-fold resistance in vitro to at least 1 study DAA; all had viral relapse. Forty-eight percent (12 of 25) of patients receiving the 3-drug regimen and 72% (18 of 25) of those receiving the 4-drug regimen had adverse events, most of which were mild. One participant was lost to follow-up. LIMITATION: Nonrandomized study design and small sample of patients with early-stage fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Combination DAA therapy with 3 or 4 drugs for 4 weeks was well-tolerated but resulted in limited cure rates. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Cancer Institute, and Clinical Center Intramural Program; supported in part by a cooperative research and development agreement between the National Institutes of Health and Gilead Sciences.

Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis and Hepatic Fibrosis in HIV-1-Monoinfected Adults With Elevated Aminotransferase Levels on Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Persistent aminotransferase elevations are common in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), including those without hepatitis B or C coinfection, but their clinical significance is unknown. METHODS: HIV-infected adults with aminotransferase levels elevated above the upper limit of normal for ≥6 months while receiving ART, and without chronic viral hepatitis or other known causes of chronic liver disease, underwent a detailed metabolic assessment and liver biopsy. RESULTS: Sixty-two HIV-infected subjects completed the study. Forty (65%) had clinically significant liver pathology, including 34 (55%) with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and 11 (18%) with bridging fibrosis, 10 of whom also had NASH. Nonspecific abnormalities alone were seen in 22 (35%) subjects, including mild steatosis, mild to moderate inflammation, and evidence of drug adaptation. Insulin resistance, obesity, and the presence of either of 2 minor alleles in the PNPLA3 gene were significantly associated with increased risk of NASH and fibrosis. NASH and/or fibrosis were not associated with duration of HIV infection or ART, specific antiretroviral drugs, history of opportunistic infection, immune status, or duration of aminotransferase elevation. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected adults with chronic aminotransferase elevations while receiving ART have a high rate of liver disease. Noninvasive testing can help identify liver disease in such patients, but liver biopsy is necessary to definitively identify those at risk for liver disease progression and complications. Longitudinal follow-up of this cohort will better characterize the natural history of aminotransferase elevations in this population and identify noninvasive biomarkers of liver disease progression.

Virological response after 6 week triple-drug regimens for hepatitis C: a proof-of-concept phase 2A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antiviral drugs have a high cure rate and favourable tolerability for patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV). Shorter courses could improve affordability and adherence. Sofosbuvir and ledipasvir with ribavirin have high efficacy when taken for 8 weeks but not for 6 weeks. We assessed whether the addition of a third direct-acting antiviral drug to sofosbuvir and ledipasvir would allow a shorter treatment duration. METHODS: In this single-centre, open-label, phase 2A trial, we sequentially enrolled treatment-naive patients with HCV genotype 1 infection into three treatment groups: 12 weeks of sofosbuvir and ledipasvir; 6 weeks of sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and GS-9669; or 6 weeks of sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and GS-9451. Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment assignment. The primary endpoint was the propotion of patients with sustained viral response at 12 weeks after treatment completion (SVR12), assessed by serum HCV RNA concentrations lower than 43 IU/mL (the lower limit of quantification). We did an intention-to-treat analysis for the primary endpoint and adverse events. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01805882. FINDINGS: Between Jan 11, 2013, and Dec 17, 2013, we enrolled 60 patients, and sequentially assigned them into three groups of 20. We noted an SVR12 in all 20 patients (100%, 95% CI 83-100) allocated to sofosbuvir and ledipasvir for 12 weeks; in 19 (95%, 75-100) of the 20 patients allocated to sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and GS-9669 for 6 weeks (one patient relapsed 2 weeks after completion of treatment); and in 19 (95%, 75-100%) of the 20 patients allocated to sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and GS-9451 for 6 weeks (one patient was lost to follow-up after reaching sustained viral response at 4 weeks). Most adverse events were mild and no patients discontinued treatment. Two serious adverse events occurred (pain after a post-treatment liver biopsy and vertigo), both unrelated to study drugs. INTERPRETATION: In this small proof-of-concept study, two different three-drug regimens that were given for 6 weeks resulted in high cure rates for HCV infection with excellent tolerability. Addition of a third potent direct-acting antiviral drug can reduce the duration of treatment required to achieve sustained viral response in patients with chronic HCV genotype 1 infection without cirrhosis. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Cancer Institute and Clinical Center Intramural Program, German Research Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Gilead Sciences.

Enzyme immunoassay versus latex agglutination cryptococcal antigen assays in adults with non-HIV-related cryptococcosis.

We compared paired enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and latex agglutination (LA) assay results with 185 blood and 164 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from 44 and 33 non-HIV cryptococcosis patients, respectively. The LA assay cutoff of 1:256 in the blood and 1:32 in the CSF was most highly predictive of a positive EIA result. The EIA missed 18.4% detected by the LA assay in the blood samples and 7.8% detected by the LA assay in the CSF samples. We note here the improved sensitivity of the LA assay over the EIA in non-HIV patients.

Pointwise confidence intervals for a survival distribution with small samples or heavy censoring.

We propose a beta product confidence procedure (BPCP) that is a non-parametric confidence procedure for the survival curve at a fixed time for right-censored data assuming independent censoring. In such situations, the Kaplan-Meier estimator is typically used with an asymptotic confidence interval (CI) that can have coverage problems when the number of observed failures is not large, and/or when testing the latter parts of the curve where there are few remaining subjects at risk. The BPCP guarantees central coverage (i.e. ensures that both one-sided error rates are no more than half of the total nominal rate) when there is no censoring (in which case it reduces to the Clopper-Pearson interval) or when there is progressive type II censoring (i.e. when censoring only occurs immediately after failures on fixed proportions of the remaining individuals). For general independent censoring, simulations show that the BPCP maintains central coverage in many situations where competing methods can have very substantial error rate inflation for the lower limit. The BPCP gives asymptotically correct coverage and is asymptotically equivalent to the CI on the Kaplan-Meier estimator using Greenwood's variance. The BPCP may be inverted to create confidence procedures for a quantile of the underlying survival distribution. Because the BPCP is easy to implement, offers protection in settings when other methods fail, and essentially matches other methods when they succeed, it should be the method of choice.

Evidence for HIV-associated B cell exhaustion in a dysfunctional memory B cell compartment in HIV-infected viremic individuals.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease leads to impaired B cell and antibody responses through mechanisms that remain poorly defined. A unique memory B cell subpopulation (CD20(hi)/CD27(lo)/CD21(lo)) in human tonsillar tissues was recently defined by the expression of the inhibitory receptor Fc-receptor-like-4 (FCRL4). In this study, we describe a similar B cell subpopulation in the blood of HIV-viremic individuals. FCRL4 expression was increased on B cells of HIV-viremic compared with HIV-aviremic and HIV-negative individuals. It was enriched on B cells with a tissuelike memory phenotype (CD20(hi)/CD27(-)/CD21(lo)) when compared with B cells with a classical memory (CD27(+)) or naive (CD27(-)/CD21(hi)) B cell phenotype. Tissuelike memory B cells expressed patterns of homing and inhibitory receptors similar to those described for antigen-specific T cell exhaustion. The tissuelike memory B cells proliferated poorly in response to B cell stimuli, which is consistent with high-level expression of multiple inhibitory receptors. Immunoglobulin diversities and replication histories were lower in tissuelike, compared with classical, memory B cells, which is consistent with premature exhaustion. Strikingly, HIV-specific responses were enriched in these exhausted tissuelike memory B cells, whereas total immunoglobulin and influenza-specific responses were enriched in classical memory B cells. These data suggest that HIV-associated premature exhaustion of B cells may contribute to poor antibody responses against HIV in infected individuals.

Clinical events in high-risk hypertensive patients randomly assigned to calcium channel blocker versus angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor in the antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment to prevent heart attack trial.

The Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering treatment to prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) provides a unique opportunity to compare the long-term relative safety and efficacy of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and calcium channel blocker-initiated therapy in older hypertensive individuals. Patients were randomized to amlodipine (n=9048) or lisinopril (n=9054). The primary outcome was combined fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction, analyzed by intention-to-treat. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality, stroke, combined cardiovascular disease (CVD), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), cancer, and gastrointestinal bleeding. Mean follow-up was 4.9 years. Blood pressure control was similar in nonblacks, but not in blacks. No significant differences were found between treatment groups for the primary outcome, all-cause mortality, ESRD, or cancer. Stroke rates were higher on lisinopril in blacks (RR=1.51, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.86) but not in nonblacks (RR=1.07, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.28), and in women (RR=1.45, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.79), but not in men (RR=1.10, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.31). Rates of combined CVD were higher (RR=1.06, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.12) because of higher rates for strokes, peripheral arterial disease, and angina, which were partly offset by lower rates for heart failure (RR=0.87, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.96) on lisinopril compared with amlodipine. Gastrointestinal bleeds and angioedema were higher on lisinopril. Patients with and without baseline coronary heart disease showed similar outcome patterns. We conclude that in hypertensive patients, the risks for coronary events are similar, but for stroke, combined CVD, gastrointestinal bleeding, and angioedema are higher and for heart failure are lower for lisinopril-based compared with amlodipine-based therapy. Some, but not all, of these differences may be explained by less effective blood pressure control in the lisinopril arm.

Clinical trial results applied to management of the individual cancer patient.

The application of clinical trial results to the management of the individual cancer patient is not always straightforward. The results of a clinical trial indicate the "average" effect of an intervention, often expressed in terms of an absolute risk reduction, which is an estimate of the likelihood of benefit for a particular patient. However, within any clinical trial, there might be differences between groups of patients in underlying pathology, genetics, or biology, and some patients might benefit more from a new treatment than others. Thus, within a clinical trial, it might also be useful to group together patients with similar characteristics, and test for subgroup interaction. The test for interaction will indicate whether the magnitude of benefit differs from one prognostic subgroup to the next (a quantitative interaction). Much less common are qualitative interactions, in which a new treatment is beneficial in one subgroup but harmful in another. If the test for subgroup interaction is significant, then the effects of treatment may indeed differ between subgroups of patients, but this should be confirmed in other trials before a treatment is implemented in clinical practice.

Effects of comprehensive lifestyle modification on diet, weight, physical fitness, and blood pressure control: 18-month results of a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The main 6-month results from the PREMIER trial showed that comprehensive behavioral intervention programs improve lifestyle behaviors and lower blood pressure. OBJECTIVE: To compare the 18-month effects of 2 multicomponent behavioral interventions versus advice only on hypertension status, lifestyle changes, and blood pressure. DESIGN: Multicenter, 3-arm, randomized trial conducted from January 2000 through November 2002. SETTING: 4 clinical centers and a coordinating center. PATIENTS: 810 adult volunteers with prehypertension or stage 1 hypertension (systolic blood pressure, 120 to 159 mm Hg; diastolic blood pressure, 80 to 95 mm Hg). INTERVENTIONS: A multicomponent behavioral intervention that implemented long-established recommendations ("established"); a multicomponent behavioral intervention that implemented the established recommendations plus the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet ("established plus DASH"); and advice only. MEASUREMENTS: Lifestyle variables and blood pressure status. Follow-up for blood pressure measurement at 18 months was 94%. RESULTS: Compared with advice only, both behavioral interventions statistically significantly reduced weight, fat intake, and sodium intake. The established plus DASH intervention also statistically significantly increased fruit, vegetable, dairy, fiber, and mineral intakes. Relative to the advice only group, the odds ratios for hypertension at 18 months were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.67 to 1.04) for the established group and 0.77 (CI, 0.62 to 0.97) for the established plus DASH group. Although reductions in absolute blood pressure at 18 months were greater for participants in the established and the established plus DASH groups than for the advice only group, the differences were not statistically significant. LIMITATIONS: The exclusion criteria and the volunteer nature of this cohort may limit generalizability. Although blood pressure is a well-accepted risk factor for cardiovascular disease, the authors were not able to assess intervention effects on clinical cardiovascular events in this limited time and with this sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Over 18 months, persons with prehypertension and stage 1 hypertension can sustain multiple lifestyle modifications that improve control of blood pressure and could reduce the risk for chronic disease.

Randomized trials of breast-conserving therapy versus mastectomy for primary breast cancer: a pooled analysis of updated results.

We have undertaken a pooled analysis of the 6 major randomized trials comparing mastectomy (MT) and breast-conserving therapy (BCT) in the treatment of primary breast cancer. Specifically, these trials compared the 2 most widely used options in local treatment: mastectomy and axillary dissection (MT) versus breast-conserving surgery, axillary dissection, and breast radiotherapy (BCT). The early results of these 6 trials formed the basis for a 1990 National Institutes of Health Consensus statement. However, most of these trials have recently published long-term follow-up results, and this pooled analysis incorporates the updated results of these 6 trials. For each of these trials, the observed number of treatment events was compared with that expected under the null hypothesis, given the number of patients per arm and the total number of events. Approximate odds ratios were computed using the observed and expected number of events, and the variance of the observed number of events. These were then pooled across trials to give overall odds ratios for the risk of locoregional recurrence, total recurrence, and death. Four of the 6 trials show that MT significantly reduces the risk of locoregional recurrence when compared with BCT, and the pooled odds ratio also shows a significant benefit for MT (odds ratio [OR], 1.561; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.289-1.890; P < 0.001). However, only 1 trial shows a statistically significant benefit for MT in reducing mortality, and the pooled odds ratio shows no significant difference between MT and BCT (OR, 1.070; 95% CI, 0.935-1.224; P = 0.33). This pooled analysis confirms that MT and BCT have comparable effects on mortality, even after long-term follow up. However, BCT is associated with a significantly greater risk of locoregional recurrence.

Multiple outputation: inference for complex clustered data by averaging analyses from independent data.

This article applies a simple method for settings where one has clustered data, but statistical methods are only available for independent data. We assume the statistical method provides us with a normally distributed estimate, theta, and an estimate of its variance sigma. We randomly select a data point from each cluster and apply our statistical method to this independent data. We repeat this multiple times, and use the average of the associated theta's as our estimate. An estimate of the variance is given by the average of the sigma2's minus the sample variance of the theta's. We call this procedure multiple outputation, as all "excess" data within each cluster is thrown out multiple times. Hoffman, Sen, and Weinberg (2001, Biometrika 88, 1121-1134) introduced this approach for generalized linear models when the cluster size is related to outcome. In this article, we demonstrate the broad applicability of the approach. Applications to angular data, p-values, vector parameters, Bayesian inference, genetics data, and random cluster sizes are discussed. In addition, asymptotic normality of estimates based on all possible outputations, as well as a finite number of outputations, is proven given weak conditions. Multiple outputation provides a simple and broadly applicable method for analyzing clustered data. It is especially suited to settings where methods for clustered data are impractical, but can also be applied generally as a quick and simple tool.

Premier: a clinical trial of comprehensive lifestyle modification for blood pressure control: rationale, design and baseline characteristics.

PURPOSE: To describe PREMIER, a randomized trial to determine the effects of multi-component lifestyle interventions on blood pressure (BP). METHODS: Participants with above optimal BP through stage 1 hypertension were randomized to: 1) a behavioral lifestyle (BLS) intervention that implements established recommendations, 2) a BLS intervention that implements established recommendations plus the DASH diet, or 3) an advice only standard of care group. The two BLS interventions consist of group and individual counseling sessions for 18 months. The primary outcome is systolic BP at 6 months. Additional outcomes include diastolic BP and homocysteine at 6 months; systolic and diastolic BP at 18 months; fasting lipids, glucose and insulin at 6 and 18 months; and effects in subgroup. CONCLUSION: Results from the PREMIER trial will provide scientific rationale for implementing multi-component behavioral lifestyle intervention programs to control BP and prevent CVD.

Effects of hormone replacement therapy and antioxidant vitamin supplements on coronary atherosclerosis in postmenopausal women: a randomized controlled trial.

CONTEXT: Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and antioxidant vitamins are widely used for secondary prevention in postmenopausal women with coronary disease, but no clinical trials have demonstrated benefit to support their use. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether HRT or antioxidant vitamin supplements, alone or in combination, influence the progression of coronary artery disease in postmenopausal women, as measured by serial quantitative coronary angiography. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: The Women's Angiographic Vitamin and Estrogen (WAVE) Trial, a randomized, double-blind trial of 423 postmenopausal women with at least one 15% to 75% coronary stenosis at baseline coronary angiography. The trial was conducted from July 1997 to January 2002 in 7 clinical centers in the United States and Canada. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 factorial design to receive either 0.625 mg/d of conjugated equine estrogen (plus 2.5 mg/d of medroxyprogesterone acetate for women who had not had a hysterectomy), or matching placebo, and 400 IU of vitamin E twice daily plus 500 mg of vitamin C twice daily, or placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Annualized mean (SD) change in minimum lumen diameter (MLD) from baseline to concluding angiogram of all qualifying coronary lesions averaged for each patient. Patients with intercurrent death or myocardial infarction (MI) were imputed the worst rank of angiographic outcome. RESULTS: The mean (SD) interval between angiograms was 2.8 (0.9) years. Coronary progression, measured in mean (SD) change, worsened with HRT by 0.047 (0.15) mm/y and by 0.024 (0.15) mm/y with HRT placebo (P =.17); and for antioxidant vitamins by 0.044 (0.15) mm/y and with vitamin placebo by 0.028 (0.15) mm/y (P =.32). When patients with intercurrent death or MI were included, the primary outcome showed an increased risk for women in the active HRT group (P =.045), and suggested an increased risk in the active vitamin group (P =.09). Fourteen patients died in the HRT group and 8 in the HRT placebo group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-4.3), and 16 in the vitamin group and 6 in the vitamin placebo group (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.1-7.2). Death, nonfatal MI, or stroke occurred in 26 HRT patients vs 15 HRT controls (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 0.97-3.6) and in 26 vitamin patients and 18 vitamin controls (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 0.80-2.9). There was no interaction between the 2 treatment interventions. CONCLUSION: In postmenopausal women with coronary disease, neither HRT nor antioxidant vitamin supplements provide cardiovascular benefit. Instead, a potential for harm was suggested with each treatment.