Ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative.

We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between -5.9% and 10.6%. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2-4%) in the tropical belt (30°N-30°S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3% decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5% for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9% for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960-2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.

Skin cancer risks avoided by the Montreal Protocol--worldwide modeling integrating coupled climate-chemistry models with a risk model for UV.

The assessment model for ultraviolet radiation and risk "AMOUR" is applied to output from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Results from the UK Chemistry and Aerosols CCM are used to quantify the worldwide skin cancer risk avoided by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments: by the year 2030, two million cases of skin cancer have been prevented yearly, which is 14% fewer skin cancer cases per year. In the "World Avoided," excess skin cancer incidence will continue to grow dramatically after 2030. Results from the CCM E39C-A are used to estimate skin cancer risk that had already been inevitably committed once ozone depletion was recognized: excess incidence will peak mid 21st century and then recover or even super-recover at the end of the century. When compared with a "No Depletion" scenario, with ozone undepleted and cloud characteristics as in the 1960s throughout, excess incidence (extra yearly cases skin cancer per million people) of the "Full Compliance with Montreal Protocol" scenario is in the ranges: New Zealand: 100-150, Congo: -10-0, Patagonia: 20-50, Western Europe: 30-40, China: 90-120, South-West USA: 80-110, Mediterranean: 90-100 and North-East Australia: 170-200. This is up to 4% of total local incidence in the Full Compliance scenario in the peak year.

Effects of land use on surface-atmosphere exchanges of trace gases and energy in Borneo: comparing fluxes over oil palm plantations and a rainforest.

This paper reports measurements of land-atmosphere fluxes of sensible and latent heat, momentum, CO(2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NO, NO(2), N(2)O and O(3) over a 30 m high rainforest canopy and a 12 m high oil palm plantation in the same region of Sabah in Borneo between April and July 2008. The daytime maximum CO(2) flux to the two canopies differs by approximately a factor of 2, 1200 mg C m(-2) h(-1) for the oil palm and 700 mg C m(-2) h(-1) for the rainforest, with the oil palm plantation showing a substantially greater quantum efficiency. Total VOC emissions are also larger over the oil palm than over the rainforest by a factor of 3. Emissions of isoprene from the oil palm canopy represented 80 per cent of the VOC emissions and exceeded those over the rainforest in similar light and temperature conditions by on average a factor of 5. Substantial emissions of estragole (1-allyl-4-methoxybenzene) from the oil palm plantation were detected and no trace of this VOC was detected in or above the rainforest. Deposition velocities for O(3) to the rainforest were a factor of 2 larger than over oil palm. Emissions of nitrous oxide were larger from the soils of the oil palm plantation than from the soils of the rainforest by approximately 25 per cent. It is clear from the measurements that the large change in the species composition generated by replacing rainforest with oil palm leads to profound changes in the net exchange of most of the trace gases measured, and thus on the chemical composition of the boundary layer over these surfaces.

Critical issues in trace gas biogeochemistry and global change.

The atmospheric composition of trace gases and aerosols is determined by the emission of compounds from the marine and terrestrial biospheres, anthropogenic sources and their chemistry and deposition processes. Biogenic emissions depend upon physiological processes and climate, and the atmospheric chemistry is governed by climate and feedbacks involving greenhouse gases themselves. Understanding and predicting the biogeochemistry of trace gases in past, present and future climates therefore demands an interdisciplinary approach integrating across physiology, atmospheric chemistry, physics and meteorology. Here, we highlight critical issues raised by recent findings in all of these key areas to provide a framework for better understanding the past and possible future evolution of the atmosphere. Incorporating recent experimental and observational findings, especially the influence of CO2 on trace gas emissions from marine algae and terrestrial plants, into earth system models remains a major research priority. As we move towards this goal, archives of the concentration and isotopes of N2O and CH4 from polar ice cores extending back over 650,000 years will provide a valuable benchmark for evaluating such models. In the Pre-Quaternary, synthesis of theoretical modelling with geochemical and palaeontological evidence is also uncovering the roles played by trace gases in episodes of abrupt climatic warming and ozone depletion. Finally, observations and palaeorecords across a range of timescales allow assessment of the Earth's climate sensitivity, a metric influencing our ability to decide what constitutes 'dangerous' climate change.