Examining inequalities in spatial access to national health insurance fund contracted facilities in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Kenya aims to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) by 2030 and has selected the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) as the 'vehicle' to drive the UHC agenda. While there is some progress in moving the country towards UHC, the availability and accessibility to NHIF-contracted facilities may be a barrier to equitable access to care. We estimated the spatial access to NHIF-contracted facilities in Kenya to provide information to advance the UHC agenda in Kenya. METHODS: We merged NHIF-contracted facility data to the geocoded inventory of health facilities in Kenya to assign facility geospatial locations. We combined this database with covariates data including road network, elevation, land use, and travel barriers. We estimated the proportion of the population living within 60- and 120-minute travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility at a 1-x1-kilometer spatial resolution nationally and at county levels using the WHO AccessMod tool. RESULTS: We included a total of 3,858 NHIF-contracted facilities. Nationally, 81.4% and 89.6% of the population lived within 60- and 120-minute travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility respectively. At the county level, the proportion of the population living within 1-hour of travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility ranged from as low as 28.1% in Wajir county to 100% in Nyamira and Kisii counties. Overall, only four counties (Kiambu, Kisii, Nairobi and Nyamira) had met the target of having 100% of their population living within 1-hour (60 min) travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility. On average, it takes 209, 210 and 216 min to travel to an NHIF-contracted facility, outpatient and inpatient facilities respectively. At the county level, travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility ranged from 10 min in Vihiga County to 333 min in Garissa. CONCLUSION: Our study offers evidence of the spatial access estimates to NHIF-contracted facilities in Kenya that can inform contracting decisions by the social health insurer, especially focussing on marginalised counties where more facilities need to be contracted. Besides, this evidence will be crucial as the country gears towards accelerating progress towards achieving UHC using social health insurance as the strategy to drive the UHC agenda in Kenya.

The economic burden associated with unmet surgical needs in Liberia: a retrospective macroeconomic analysis based on a nationwide enumeration of surgical procedures.

OBJECTIVES: The economic consequences of untreated surgical disease are potentially large. The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden associated with unmet surgical needs in Liberia. DESIGN: A nationwide enumeration of surgical procedures and providers was conducted in Liberia in 2018. We estimated the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) saved by operative activities and converted these into economic losses averted using gross national income per capita and value of a statistical life (VSL) approaches. The total, the met and the unmet needs for surgery were determined, and economic losses caused by unmet surgical needs were estimated. Finally, we valued the economic losses avoided by various surgical provider groups. RESULTS: A total of 55 890 DALYs were averted by surgical activities in 2018; these activities prevented an economic loss of between US$35 and US$141 million. About half of these values were generated by the non-specialist physician workforce. Furthermore, a non-specialist physician working a full-time position for 1 year prevented an economic loss of US$717 069 using the VSL approach, while a specialist resident and a certified specialist saved US$726 606 and US$698 877, respectively. The burden of unmet surgical need was associated with productivity losses of between US$388 million and US$1.6 billion; these losses equate to 11% and 46% of the annual gross domestic product for Liberia. CONCLUSION: The economic burden of untreated surgical disease is large in Liberia. There is a need to strengthen the surgical system to reduce ongoing economic losses; a framework where specialist and non-specialist physicians collaborate may result in better economic return than a narrower focus on training specialists alone.

Assessing the choice of National Health Insurance Fund contracted outpatient facilities in Kenya: A qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) members' level of understanding, experiences, and factors influencing their choice of NHIF-contracted outpatient facilities in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional qualitative study with NHIF members in two purposefully selected counties (Nyeri and Makueni counties) in Kenya. We collected data through 15 focus group discussions with NHIF members. Data were analysed using a framework analysis approach. RESULTS: Urban-based NHIF members had a good understanding of the NHIF-contracted outpatient facility selection process and the approaches for choosing and changing providers, unlike their rural counterparts. While NHIF members were required to choose a provider before accessing care, the number of available alternative facilities was perceived to be inadequate. Finally, NHIF members identified seven factors they considered important when choosing an NHIF-contracted outpatient provider. Of these factors, the availability of drugs, distance from the household to the facility and waiting time at the facility until consultation were considered the most important. CONCLUSION: There is a need for the NHIF to prioritise awareness-raising approaches tailored to rural settings. Further, there is a need for the NHIF to contract more providers to both spur competition among providers and provide alternatives for members to choose from. Besides, NHIF members revealed the important factors they consider when selecting outpatient facilities. Consequently, NHIF should leverage the preferred factors when contracting healthcare providers. Similarly, healthcare providers should enhance the availability of drugs, reduce waiting times whilst improving their staff's attitudes which would improve user satisfaction and the quality of care provided.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Biomedical, Non-Surgical HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Considerable evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of biomedical, non-surgical interventions to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission has been generated over the last decade. This study aims to synthesize findings and identify remaining knowledge gaps to suggest future research priorities. METHODS: A systematic literature review was carried out in August 2020 using the MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health and EconLit databases to retrieve economic evaluations and costing studies of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), injectable long-acting PrEP, vaginal microbicide rings and gels, HIV vaccines and broadly neutralizing antibodies. Studies reporting costs from the provider or societal perspective were included in the analysis. Those reporting on behavioural methods of prevention, condoms and surgical approaches (voluntary medical male circumcision) were excluded. The quality of reporting of the included studies was assessed using published checklists. RESULTS: We identified 3007 citations, of which 87 studies were retained. Most were set in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; n = 53) and focused on the costs and/or cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP regimens (n = 70). Model-based economic evaluations were the most frequent study design; only two trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses and nine costing studies were found. Less than half of the studies provided practical details on how the intervention would be delivered by the health system, and only three of these, all in LMICs, explicitly focused on service integration and its implication for delivery costs. 'Real-world' programme delivery mechanisms and costs of intervention delivery were rarely considered. PrEP technologies were generally found to be cost-effective only when targeting high-risk subpopulations. Single-dose HIV vaccines are expected to be cost-effective for all groups despite substantial uncertainty around pricing. CONCLUSIONS: A lack of primary, detailed and updated cost data, including above-service level costs, from a variety of settings makes it difficult to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of specific delivery modes at scale, or to evaluate strategies for services integration. Closing this evidence gap around real-world implementation is vital, not least because the strategies targeting high-risk groups that are recommended by PrEP models may incur substantially higher costs and be of limited practical feasibility in some settings.

Utility maximization versus regret minimization in health choice behavior: Evidence from four datasets.

Choice models in health are almost exclusively based on the neoclassical economic paradigm of utility maximization. Recently developed choice models have captured and shown empirical support for regret minimization as an alternative decision rule. In health economics, recent applications of RRM models indicate that individuals making health-based choices may exhibit regret minimization-type behavior. In this paper, we build on this research using a more flexible model that allows for heterogeneous decision rules, separately from preference heterogeneity, and comparing it to models that assume single decision rules. We use four datasets from diverse settings in which individuals make health choices: tobacco markets, genomic testing, and HIV prevention. We found that, if a one-size-fits-all rule is applied, then utility maximization was preferable to regret minimization for these datasets. However, we also find that individuals apply varying decision rules in similar proportions in these health settings, suggesting that models for heterogeneous decision rules were needed to capture these behaviors in these settings.

Improving uptake of non-communicable disease screening in Sri Lanka: eliciting people's preferences using a discrete choice experiment.

A national programme to universally screen the population between 35 and 65 years for non-communicable diseases was established at 'Healthy Lifestyle Centres (HLCs)' in 2011 in Sri Lanka. Despite several efforts by policymakers, the uptake of screening remained <10% of the target population and with disparities in uptake across districts and among men and women. Considering service beneficiaries as a vital stakeholder, a discrete choice experiment was carried out to estimate people's preference for a non-communicable disease screening service delivery model in rural, urban and estate sectors in a district in Sri Lanka. The choice design and the general survey questionnaire was developed through focus group discussions, literature reviews and stakeholder consultations. Data were collected by stratified random sampling, with 187 participants from the urban sector, 253 from the rural sector and 152 from the estate/plantation sector. People's preference was assessed as utility estimates derived using multinomial logistic regression. Reliability was assessed within test among all study participants and with test-retest among 40 participants showed 80% precision. Urban and rural sectors gave the highest priority to workplace screening over screening at HLCs. The estates attributed the highest priority for cost-free screening. If cost-free screening is offered with having to spend 1-2 hours at the most preferred opening times for each sector with warm and friendly staff, the uptake of screening can predicted to be increased by 65, 29 and 21 times in urban, rural and estate sectors, respectively, relative to having to attend HLCs from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m., spending >2 hours and Rs. 1000 with unfriendly staff. Thus, people's preferences on service delivery aspects seemed to have differed from government priorities. Preferences when ill and apparently healthy differed, as they preferred to spend less time and money when healthy than when ill.

Optimising Vaccine Dose in Inoculation against SARS-CoV-2, a Multi-Factor Optimisation Modelling Study to Maximise Vaccine Safety and Efficacy.

Developing a vaccine against the global pandemic SARS-CoV-2 is a critical area of active research. Modelling can be used to identify optimal vaccine dosing; maximising vaccine efficacy and safety and minimising cost. We calibrated statistical models to published dose-dependent seroconversion and adverse event data of a recombinant adenovirus type-5 (Ad5) SARS-CoV-2 vaccine given at doses 5.0 × 1010, 1.0 × 1011 and 1.5 × 1011 viral particles. We estimated the optimal dose for three objectives, finding: (A) the minimum dose that may induce herd immunity, (B) the dose that maximises immunogenicity and safety and (C) the dose that maximises immunogenicity and safety whilst minimising cost. Results suggest optimal dose [95% confidence interval] in viral particles per person was (A) 1.3 × 1011 [0.8-7.9 × 1011], (B) 1.5 × 1011 [0.3-5.0 × 1011] and (C) 1.1 × 1011 [0.2-1.5 × 1011]. Optimal dose exceeded 5.0 × 1010 viral particles only if the cost of delivery exceeded £0.65 or cost per 1011 viral particles was less than £6.23. Optimal dose may differ depending on the objectives of developers and policy-makers, but further research is required to improve the accuracy of optimal-dose estimates.

Modelling the effect of market forces on the impact of introducing human immunodeficiency virus pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) enables female sex workers (FSWs) to protect themselves from HIV without relying on clients using condoms. Yet, because PrEP reduces HIV risk, financial incentives to not use condoms may lead to risk compensation: reductions in condom use and/or increases in commercial sex, and may reduce the price of unprotected sex. In this analysis, we integrate market forces into a dynamic HIV transmission model to assess how risk compensation could change the impact of PrEP among FSWs and clients. We parameterise how sexual behavior may change with PrEP use among FSWs using stated preference data combined with economic theory. Our projections suggest the impact of PrEP is sensitive to risk compensatory behaviors driven by changes in the economics of sex work. Condom substitution could reduce the impact of PrEP on HIV incidence by 55%, while increases in the frequency of commercial sex to counter decreases in the price charged for unprotected sex among PrEP users could entirely mitigate the impact of PrEP. Accounting for competition between PrEP users and nonusers exacerbates this further. Alternative scenarios where increases in unprotected sex among PrEP users are balanced by decreases in non-PrEP users have the opposite effect, resulting in PrEP having much greater impact. Intervention studies need to determine how HIV prevention products may change the economics of sex work and provision of unprotected sex to enable a better understanding of their impact.

HIV prevention is not all about HIV - using a discrete choice experiment among women to model how the uptake and effectiveness of HIV prevention products may also rely on pregnancy and STI protection.

INTRODUCTION: In sub-Saharan Africa, considerable HIV-burden exists among women. Anti-retroviral (ARV) based prevention products could decrease this burden, and their uptake could be increased if they also protect against pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections (STI). METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was undertaken in South Africa (2015) through a household survey of adult females (n = 158) and adolescent girls (n = 204) who self-reported HIV-negative status. The DCE was used to project the uptake (percentage using product) of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), vaginal rings, and injectable long-lasting ARV agents among these women, and how uptake could depend on whether these products protect against pregnancy or STI acquisition. Uptake estimates were used to model how each product could decrease a women's HIV acquisition risk. RESULTS: In adolescent women, there will be limited uptake (< 6% for any product) and impact (< 4% decrease in HIV acquisition risk) of new products unless they provide pregnancy protection, which could quadruple use and impact. Adult women have weaker preference for pregnancy protection, with moderate use (< 17% for each) and impact (< 14 percentage point decrease) if they only provide HIV protection. All women had highest preference for injectable ARVs, with oral PrEP having high preference if injectable ARVs are not available. Adult women will use the ring, but adolescent women will not. Importantly, even with three additional prevention products, all providing pregnancy and STI protection, > 14% of women will remain unprotected and > 31% of the baseline acquisition risk will remain. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating multiple prevention components into new ARV-based prevention products may increase their uptake and impact among women.

Determinants of heterosexual men's demand for long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV in urban South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Heterosexual men in South Africa are a large key population to exposure to HIV, yet preferences for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among this population have not, to date, been investigated in the literature. This paper aims to explore HIV prevention preferences among heterosexual men in urban South Africa, as well as to examine the demand and characteristics of men who favour long-acting injectable (LAI) PrEP over condoms and oral PrEP. METHODS: Data were collected among 178 self-reported HIV-negative heterosexual men, who were given example products and information before being asked which they preferred. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyse which characteristics were associated with product choice. RESULTS: 48% (n = 85) of participants preferred LAI PrEP, while 33% (n = 58) and 20% (n = 35) chose oral PrEP and condoms respectively. Having children (marginal effect = 0.22; 95% CI [0.01, 0.44]) or having higher risk attitude scores (marginal effect = 0.03; 95% CI [0.01, 0.06]) was significantly associated with a choice of LAI PrEP, while those who had unprotected anal intercourse (marginal effect = - 0.42; 95% CI [- 0.57, - 0.27]) and those who were concerned with protection against other sexually transmitted infections over HIV (marginal effect = - 0.42; 95% CI [- 0.60, - 0.24]) appeared less likely to prefer LAI PrEP. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested a relatively high demand and theoretical acceptability for LAI PrEP among heterosexual men in urban South Africa, but there appeared to be fewer distinct predictors for the willingness to use LAI PrEP compared to studies conducted among gay and bisexual men and women. Nevertheless, the findings contribute to the mapping of the demand and determinants of heterosexual men's preferences for novel antiretroviral-based prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, and the data could aid in the differentiated design of future HIV prevention strategies using LAI PrEP in conjunction with other methods.

Macroeconomic costs of the unmet burden of surgical disease in Sierra Leone: a retrospective economic analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery estimated that low/middle-income countries will lose an estimated cumulative loss of US$12.3 trillion from gross domestic product (GDP) due to the unmet burden of surgical disease. However, no country-specific data currently exist. We aimed to estimate the costs to the Sierra Leone economy from death and disability which may have been averted by surgical care. DESIGN: We used estimates of total, met and unmet need from two main sources-a cluster randomised, cross-sectional, countrywide survey and a retrospective, nationwide study on surgery in Sierra Leone. We calculated estimated disability-adjusted life years from morbidity and mortality for the estimated unmet burden and modelled the likely economic impact using three different methods-gross national income per capita, lifetime earnings foregone and value of a statistical life. RESULTS: In 2012, estimated, discounted lifetime losses to the Sierra Leone economy from the unmet burden of surgical disease was between US$1.1 and US$3.8 billion, depending on the economic method used. These lifetime losses equate to between 23% and 100% of the annual GDP for Sierra Leone. 80% of economic losses were due to mortality. The incremental losses averted by scale up of surgical provision to the Lancet Commission target of 80% were calculated to be between US$360 million and US$2.9 billion. CONCLUSION: There is a large economic loss from the unmet need for surgical care in Sierra Leone. There is an immediate need for massive investment to counteract ongoing economic losses.