Cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation of elderly frail or pre-frail patients prior to elective surgery (PRAEP-GO) versus usual care - Protocol for a health economic evaluation alongside a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Prehabilitation aims to improve patients' functional capacity before surgery to reduce perioperative complications, promote recovery and decrease probability of disability. The planned economic evaluation is performed alongside a large German multi-centre pragmatic, two-arm parallel-group, randomized controlled trial on prehabilitation for frail elderly patients before elective surgery compared to standard care (PRAEP-GO RCT). The aim is to determine the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of prehabilitation for frail elderly before an elective surgery. METHODS: The planned health economic evaluation comprises cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses. Analyses are conducted in the German context from different perspectives including the payer perspective, i.e. the statutory health insurance, the societal perspective and the health care provider perspective. Data on outcomes and costs, are collected alongside the ongoing PRAEP-GO RCT. The trial population includes frail or pre-frail patients aged ≥70 years with planned elective surgery. The intervention consists of frailty screening (Fried phenotype), a shared decision-making conference determining modality (physiotherapy and unsupervised physical exercises, nutrition counselling, etc.) and setting (inpatient, day care, outpatient etc.) of a 3-week individual multimodal prehabilitation prior to surgery. The control group receives standard preoperative care. Costs include the intervention costs, the costs of the index hospital stay for surgery, and health care resources consumed during a 12-month follow-up. Clinical effectiveness outcomes included in the economic evaluation are the level of care dependency, the degree of disability as measured by the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0), quality-adjusted life years (QALY) derived from the EQ-5D-5L and the German utility set, and complications occurring during the index hospital stay. Each adopted perspective considers different types of costs and outcomes as outlined in the protocol. All analyses will feature Intention-To-Treat analysis. To explore methodological and parametric uncertainties, we will conduct probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. Subgroup analyses will be performed as secondary analyses. DISCUSSION: The health economic evaluation will provide insights into the cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation in older frail populations, informing decision-making processes and contributing to the evidence base in this field. Potential limitation includes a highly heterogeneous trial population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PRAEP-GO RCT: NCT04418271; economic evaluation: OSF ( https://osf.io/ecm74 ).

Cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation prior to elective surgery: a systematic review of economic evaluations.

BACKGROUND: Prehabilitation aims at enhancing patients' functional capacity and overall health status to enable them to withstand a forthcoming stressor like surgery. Our aim was to synthesise the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation for patients awaiting elective surgery compared with usual preoperative care. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, the CRD database, ClinicalTrials.gov, the WHO ICTRP and the dissertation databases OADT and DART. Studies comparing prehabilitation for patients with elective surgery to usual preoperative care were included if they reported cost outcomes. All types of economic evaluations (EEs) were included. The primary outcome of the review was cost-effectiveness based on cost-utility analyses (CUAs). The risk of bias of trial-based EEs was assessed with the Cochrane risk of bias 2 tool and the ROBINS-I tool and the credibility of model-based EEs with the ISPOR checklist. Methodological quality of full EEs was assessed using the CHEC checklist. The EEs' results were synthesised narratively using vote counting based on direction of effect. RESULTS: We included 45 unique studies: 25 completed EEs and 20 ongoing studies. Of the completed EEs, 22 were trial-based and three model-based, corresponding to four CUAs, three cost-effectiveness analyses, two cost-benefit analyses, 12 cost-consequence analyses and four cost-minimization analyses. Three of the four trial-based CUAs (75%) found prehabilitation cost-effective, i.e. more effective and/or less costly than usual care. Overall, 16/25 (64.0%) EEs found prehabilitation cost-effective. When excluding studies of insufficient credibility/critical risk of bias, this number reduced to 14/23 (60.9%). In 8/25 (32.0%), cost-effectiveness was unclear, e.g. because prehabilitation was more effective and more costly, and in one EE prehabilitation was not cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: We found some evidence that prehabilitation for patients awaiting elective surgery is cost-effective compared to usual preoperative care. However, we suspect a relevant risk of publication bias, and most EEs were of high risk of bias and/or low methodological quality. Furthermore, there was relevant heterogeneity depending on the population, intervention and methods. Future EEs should be performed over a longer time horizon and apply a more comprehensive perspective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020182813.

Costs of delivering human papillomavirus vaccination using a one- or two-dose strategy in Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: As part of the Dose Reduction Immunobridging and Safety Study of Two HPV Vaccines in Tanzanian Girls (DoRIS; NCT02834637), the current study is one of the first to evaluate the financial and economic costs of the national rollout of an HPV vaccination program in school-aged girls in sub-Saharan Africa and the potential costs associated with a single dose HPV vaccine program, given recent evidence suggesting that a single dose may be as efficacious as a two-dose regimen. METHODS: The World Health Organization's (WHO) Cervical Cancer Prevention and Control Costing (C4P) micro-costing tool was used to estimate the total financial and economic costs of the national vaccination program from the perspective of the Tanzanian government. Cost data were collected in 2019 via surveys, workshops, and interviews with local stakeholders for vaccines and injection supplies, microplanning, training, sensitization, service delivery, supervision, and cold chain. The cost per two-dose and one-dose fully immunized girl (FIG) was calculated. RESULTS: The total financial and economic costs were US$10,117,455 and US$45,683,204, respectively, at a financial cost of $5.17 per two-dose FIG, and an economic cost of $23.34 per FIG. Vaccine and vaccine-related costs comprised the largest proportion of costs, followed by service delivery. In a one-dose scenario, the cost per FIG reduced to $2.51 (financial) and $12.18 (economic), with the largest reductions in vaccine and injection supply costs, and service delivery. CONCLUSIONS: The overall cost of Tanzania's HPV vaccination program was lower per vaccinee than costs estimated from previous demonstration projects in the region, especially in a single-dose scenario. Given the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization's recent recommendation to update dosing schedules to either one or two doses of the HPV vaccine, these data provide important baseline data for Tanzania and may serve as a guide for improving coverage going forward. The findings may also aid in the prioritization of funding for countries that have not yet added HPV vaccines to their routine immunizations.

Prehabilitation of elderly frail or pre-frail patients prior to elective surgery (PRAEP-GO): study protocol for a randomized, controlled, outcome assessor-blinded trial.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is expressed by a reduction in physical capacity, mobility, muscle strength, and endurance. (Pre-)frailty is present in up to 42% of the older surgical population, with an increased risk for peri- and postoperative complications. Consequently, these patients often suffer from a delayed or limited recovery, loss of autonomy and quality of life, and a decrease in functional and cognitive capacities. Since frailty is modifiable, prehabilitation may improve the physiological reserves of patients and reduce the care dependency 12 months after surgery. METHODS: Patients ≥ 70 years old scheduled for elective surgery or intervention will be recruited in this multicenter, randomized controlled study, with a target of 1400 participants with an allocation ratio of 1:1. The intervention consists of (1) a shared decision-making process with the patient, relatives, and an interdisciplinary and interprofessional team and (2) a 3-week multimodal, individualized prehabilitation program including exercise therapy, nutritional intervention, mobility or balance training, and psychosocial interventions and medical assessment. The frequency of the supervised prehabilitation is 5 times/week for 3 weeks. The primary endpoint is defined as the level of care dependency 12 months after surgery or intervention. DISCUSSION: Prehabilitation has been proven to be effective for different populations, including colorectal, transplant, and cardiac surgery patients. In contrast, evidence for prehabilitation in older, frail patients has not been clearly established. To the best of our knowledge, this is currently the largest prehabilitation study on older people with frailty undergoing general elective surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04418271 . Registered on 5 June 2020. Universal Trial Number (UTN): U1111-1253-4820.

How Denmark, England, Estonia, France, Germany, and the USA Pay for Variable, Specialized and Low Volume Care: A Cross-country Comparison of In-patient Payment Systems.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis-related group (DRG)-based hospital payment can potentially be inadequately low (or high) for highly variable, highly specialized, and/or low volume care. DRG-based payment can be combined with other payment mechanisms to avoid unintended consequences of inadequate payment. The aim of this study was to analyze these other payment mechanisms for acute inpatient care across six countries (Germany, Denmark, England, Estonia, France, the United States [Medicare]). METHODS: Information was collected about elements excluded from DRG-based payment, the rationale for exclusions, and payment mechanisms complementing DRG-based payment. A conceptual framework was developed to systematically describe, visualise and compare payment mechanisms across countries. RESULTS: Results show that the complexity of exclusion mechanisms and associated additional payment components differ across countries. England and Germany use many different additional mechanisms, while there are only few exceptions from DRG-based payment in the Medicare program in the United States. Certain areas of care are almost always excluded (eg, certain areas of cancer care or specialized pediatrics). Denmark and England use exclusion mechanisms to steer service provision for highly complex patients to specialized providers. CONCLUSION: Implications for researchers and policy-makers include: (1) certain areas of care might be better excluded from DRG-based payment; (2) exclusions may be used to incentivize the concentration of highly specialized care at specialized institutions (as in Denmark or England); (3) researchers may apply our analytical framework to better understand the specific design features of DRG-based payment systems.

It probably worked: a Bayesian approach to evaluating the introduction of activity-based hospital payment in Israel.

BACKGROUND: In 2013-2014, Israel accelerated adoption of activity-based payments to hospitals. While the effects of such payments on patient length of stay (LoS) have been examined in several countries, there have been few analyses of incentive effects in the Israeli context of capped reimbursements and stretched resources. METHODS: We examined administrative data from the Israel Ministry of Health for 14 procedures from 2005 to 2016 in all not-for-profit hospitals (97% of the acute care beds). Survival analyses using a Weibull distribution allowed us to examine the non-negative and right-skewed data. We opted for a Bayesian approach to estimate relative change in LoS. RESULTS: LoS declined in 7 of 14 procedures analyzed, notably, in 6 out of 7 urological procedures. In these procedures, reduction in LoS ranged between 11% and 20%. The estimation results for the control variables are mixed and do not indicate a clear pattern of association with LoS. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in LoS freed resources to treat other patients, which may have resulted in reduced waiting times. It may have been more feasible to reduce LoS for urological procedures since these had relatively long LoS. Policymakers should pay attention to the effects of decreases in LoS on quality of care. Stretched hospital resources, capped reimbursements, retrospective subsidies and underpriced procedures may have limited hospitals' ability to reduce LoS for other procedures where no decrease occurred (e.g., general surgery).

Cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation prior to elective surgery compared to usual preoperative care: protocol for a systematic review of economic evaluations.

INTRODUCTION: Preoperative functional capacity is an important predictor of postoperative outcomes. Prehabilitation aims to optimise patients' functional capacity before surgery to improve postoperative outcomes. As prolonged hospital stay and postoperative complications present an avoidable use of healthcare resources, prehabilitation might also save costs.The aim of this systematic review is to investigate the cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation programmes for patients awaiting elective surgery compared with usual preoperative care. The results will be useful to inform decisions about the implementation of prehabilitation programmes and the design of future economic evaluations of prehabilitation programmes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will search PubMed, Embase, the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination Database, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and ClinicalTrials.gov for full or partial economic evaluations of preoperative prehabilitation programmes conducted in any population compared with usual preoperative care. Studies will be included regardless of the type, design and perspective of the economic evaluation, and their publication year, language or status. Initial searches were performed between 30 April and 4 May 2020.Study selection, data extraction and assessment of the included studies' risk of bias and methodological quality will initially be performed by two independent reviewers and, if agreement was sufficiently high, by one reviewer. We will extract data regarding the included studies' basic characteristics, economic evaluation methods and cost-effectiveness results.A narrative synthesis will be performed. The primary endpoint will be cost-effectiveness based on cost-utility analyses. We will discuss heterogeneity between the studies and assess the risk of publication bias. The certainty of the evidence will be determined using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required as the systematic review will not involve human participants. We plan to present our findings at scientific conferences, pass them on to relevant stakeholder organisations and publish them in a peer-reviewed journal. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020182813.

Austria: Health System Review.

This analysis of the Austrian health system reviews recent developments in organization and governance, health financing, health care provision, health reforms and health system performance. Two major reforms implemented in 2013 and 2017 are among the main issues today. The central aim of the reforms that put in place a new governance system was to strengthen coordination and cooperation between different levels of government and self-governing bodies by promoting joint planning, decision-making and financing. Yet despite these efforts, the Austrian health system remains complex and fragmented in its organizational and financial structure. The Austrian population has a good level of health. Life expectancy at birth is above the EU average and low amenable mortality rates indicate that health care is more effective than in most EU countries. Yet, the number of people dying from cardiovascular diseases and cancer is high compared to the EU-28 average. Tobacco and alcohol represent the major health risk factors. Tobacco consumption has not declined over the last decade like in most other EU countries and lies well above the EU-28 average. In terms of performance, the Austrian health system provides good access to health care services. Austrias residents report the lowest levels of unmet needs for medical care across the EU. Virtually all the population is covered by social health insurances and enjoys a broad benefit basket. Yet, rising imbalances between the numbers of contracted and non-contracted physicians may contribute to social and regional inequalities in accessing care. The Austrian health system is relatively costly. It has a strong focus on inpatient care as characterized by high hospital utilization and imbalances in resource allocation between the hospital and ambulatory care sector. The ongoing reforms therefore aim to bring down publicly financed health expenditure growth with a global budget cap and reduce overutilization of hospital care. Efficiency of inpatient care has improved over the reform period but the fragmented financing between the inpatient and ambulatory sector remain a challenge. Current reforms to strengthen primary health care are an important step to further shift activities out of the large and costly hospital sector and improve skill mix within the health workforce.

Healthcare financing reform in Latvia: switching from social health insurance to NHS and back?

In the 1990s, Latvia aimed at introducing Social Health Insurance (SHI) but later changed to a National Health Service (NHS) type system. The NHS is financed from general taxation, provides coverage to the entire population, and pays for a basic service package purchased from independent public and private providers. In November 2013, the Cabinet of Ministers passed a draft Healthcare Financing Law, aiming at increasing public expenditures on health by introducing Compulsory Health Insurance (CHI) and linking entitlement to health services to the payment of income tax. Opponents of the reform argue that linking entitlement to health services to the payment of income tax does not have the potential to increase public expenditures on health but that it can contribute to compromising universal coverage and access to health services of certain population groups. In view of strong opposition, it is unlikely that the law will be adopted before parliamentary elections in October 2014. Nevertheless, the discussion around the law is interesting because of three main reasons: (1) it can illustrate why the concept of SHI remains attractive - not only for Latvia but also for other countries, (2) it shows that a change from NHS to SHI does not imply major institutional reforms, and (3) it demonstrates the potential problems of introducing SHI, i.e. of linking entitlement to health services to the payment of contributions.

Knee replacement and Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs): patient classification and hospital reimbursement in 11 European countries.

PURPOSE: Researchers from 11 countries (Austria, England, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden) compared how their Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) systems deal with knee replacement cases. The study aims to assist knee surgeons and national authorities to optimize the grouping algorithm of their DRG systems. METHODS: National or regional databases were used to identify hospital cases treated with a procedure of knee replacement. DRG classification algorithms and indicators of resource consumption were compared for those DRGs that together comprised at least 97 % of cases. Five standardized case scenarios were defined and quasi-prices according to national DRG-based hospital payment systems ascertained. RESULTS: Grouping algorithms for knee replacement vary widely across countries: they classify cases according to different variables (between one and five classification variables) into diverging numbers of DRGs (between one and five DRGs). Even the most expensive DRGs generally have a cost index below 2.00, implying that grouping algorithms do not adequately account for cases that are more than twice as costly as the index DRG. Quasi-prices for the most complex case vary between euro 4,920 in Estonia and euro 14,081 in Spain. CONCLUSIONS: Most European DRG systems were observed to insufficiently consider the most important determinants of resource consumption. Several countries' DRG system might be improved through the introduction of classification variables for revision of knee replacement or for the presence of complications or comorbidities. Ultimately, this would contribute to assuring adequate performance comparisons and fair hospital reimbursement on the basis of DRGs.

Breast cancer surgery and diagnosis-related groups (DRGs): patient classification and hospital reimbursement in 11 European countries.

Researchers from eleven countries (i.e. Austria, England, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden) compared how their DRG systems deal with breast cancer surgery patients. DRG algorithms and indicators of resource consumption were assessed for those DRGs that individually contain at least 1% of all breast cancer surgery patients. Six standardised case vignettes were defined and quasi prices according to national DRG-based hospital payment systems were ascertained. European DRG systems classify breast cancer surgery patients according to different sets of classification variables into three to seven DRGs. Quasi prices for an index case treated with partial mastectomy range from €577 in Poland to €5780 in the Netherlands. Countries award their highest payments for very different kinds of patients. Breast cancer specialists and national DRG authorities should consider how other countries' DRG systems classify breast cancer patients in order to identify potential scope for improvement and to ensure fair and appropriate reimbursement.

Costs of delivering human papillomavirus vaccination to schoolgirls in Mwanza Region, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is the leading cause of female cancer-related deaths in Tanzania. Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) offers a new opportunity to control this disease. This study aimed to estimate the costs of a school-based HPV vaccination project in three districts in Mwanza Region (NCT ID: NCT01173900), Tanzania and to model incremental scaled-up costs of a regional vaccination program. METHODS: We first conducted a top-down cost analysis of the vaccination project, comparing observed costs of age-based (girls born in 1998) and class-based (class 6) vaccine delivery in a total of 134 primary schools. Based on the observed project costs, we then modeled incremental costs of a scaled-up vaccination program for Mwanza Region from the perspective of the Tanzanian government, assuming that HPV vaccines would be delivered through the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI). RESULTS: Total economic project costs for delivering 3 doses of HPV vaccine to 4,211 girls were estimated at about US$349,400 (including a vaccine price of US$5 per dose). Costs per fully-immunized girl were lower for class-based delivery than for age-based delivery. Incremental economic scaled-up costs for class-based vaccination of 50,290 girls in Mwanza Region were estimated at US$1.3 million. Economic scaled-up costs per fully-immunized girl were US$26.41, including HPV vaccine at US$5 per dose. Excluding vaccine costs, vaccine could be delivered at an incremental economic cost of US$3.09 per dose and US$9.76 per fully-immunized girl. Financial scaled-up costs, excluding costs of the vaccine and salaries of existing staff were estimated at US$1.73 per dose. CONCLUSIONS: Project costs of class-based vaccination were found to be below those of age-based vaccination because of more eligible girls being identified and higher vaccine uptake. We estimate that vaccine can be delivered at costs that would make HPV vaccination a very cost-effective intervention. Potentially, integrating HPV vaccine delivery with cost-effective school-based health interventions and a reduction of vaccine price below US$5 per dose would further reduce the costs per fully HPV-immunized girl.

Latvia: Health system review.

This analysis of the Latvian health system reviews recent developments in organization and governance, health financing, health care provision, health reforms and health-system performance. Latvia has been constantly reforming its health system for over two decades. After independence in 1991, Latvia initially moved to create a social health insurance type system. However, problems with decentralized planning and fragmented and inefficient financing led to this being gradually reversed, and ultimately the establishment in 2011 of a National Health Service type system. These constant changes have taken place against a backdrop of relatively poor health and limited funding, with a heavy burden for individuals; Latvia has one of the highest rates of out-of-pocket expenditure on health in the European Union (EU). The lack of financial resources resulting from the financial crisis has posed an enormous challenge to the government, which struggled to ensure the availability of necessary health care services for the population and to prevent deterioration of health status. Yet this also provided momentum for reforms: previous efforts to centralise the system and to shift from hospital to outpatient care were drastically accelerated, while at the same time a social safety net strategy was implemented (with financial support from the World Bank) to protect the poor from the negative consequences of user charges. However, as in any health system, a number of challenges remain. They include: reducing smoking and cardiovascular deaths; increasing coverage of prescription pharmaceuticals; reducing the excessive reliance on out-of-pocket payments for financing the health system; reducing inequities in access and health status; improving efficiency of hospitals through implementation of DRG-based financing; and monitoring and improving quality. In the face of these challenges at a time of financial crisis, one further challenge emerges: ensuring adequate funding for the health system through increased public expenditure on health.

Appendectomy and diagnosis-related groups (DRGs): patient classification and hospital reimbursement in 11 European countries.

BACKGROUND: As part of the EuroDRG project, researchers from 11 countries (i.e., Austria, England, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, and Spain) compared how their diagnosis-related groups (DRG) systems deal with appendectomy patients. The study aims to assist surgeons and national authorities to optimize their DRG systems. METHODS: National or regional databases were used to identify hospital cases with a diagnosis of appendicitis treated with a procedure of appendectomy. DRG classification algorithms and indicators of resource consumption were compared for those DRGs that together comprised at least 97% of cases. Six standardized case vignettes were defined, and quasi prices according to national DRG-based hospital payment systems were ascertained. RESULTS: European DRG systems vary widely: they classify appendectomy patients according to different sets of variables (between two and six classification variables) into diverging numbers of DRGs (between two and 11 DRGs). The most complex DRG is valued 5.1 times more resource intensive than an index case in France but only 1.1 times more resource intensive than an index case in Finland. Comparisons of quasi prices for the case vignettes show that hypothetical payments for the most complex case vignette amount to only 1,005 in Poland but to 12,304 in France. CONCLUSIONS: Large variations in the classification of appendectomy patients raise concerns whether all systems rely on the most appropriate classification variables. Surgeons and national DRG authorities should consider how other countries' DRG systems classify appendectomy patients in order to optimize their DRG system and to ensure fair and appropriate reimbursement.

Costs of cervical cancer screening and treatment using visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) and cryotherapy in Ghana: the importance of scale.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incremental costs of visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) and cryotherapy at cervical cancer screening facilities in Ghana; to explore determinants of costs through modelling; and to estimate national scale-up and annual programme costs. METHODS: Resource-use data were collected at four out of six active VIA screening centres, and unit costs were ascertained to estimate the costs per woman of VIA and cryotherapy. Modelling and sensitivity analysis were used to explore the influence of observed differences between screening facilities on estimated costs and to calculate national costs. RESULTS: Incremental economic costs per woman screened with VIA ranged from 4.93 US$ to 14.75 US$, and costs of cryotherapy were between 47.26 US$ and 84.48 US$ at surveyed facilities. Under base case assumptions, our model estimated the costs of VIA to be 6.12 US$ per woman and those of cryotherapy to be 27.96 US$. Sensitivity analysis showed that the number of women screened per provider and treated per facility was the most important determinants of costs. National annual programme costs were estimated to be between 0.6 and 4.0 million US$ depending on assumed coverage and adopted screening strategy. CONCLUSION: When choosing between different cervical cancer prevention strategies, the feasibility of increasing uptake to achieve economies of scale should be a major concern.

Advertising bans as a means of tobacco control policy: a systematic literature review of time-series analyses.

OBJECTIVES: This paper reviews the international literature that employed time-series analysis to evaluate the effects of advertising bans on aggregate consumption of cigarettes or tobacco. METHODS: A systematic search of the literature was conducted. Three groups of studies representing analyses of advertising bans in the U.S.A., in other countries and in 22 OECD countries were defined. The estimated effects of advertising bans and their significance were analysed. RESULTS: 24 studies were identified. They used a wide array of explanatory variables, models, estimating methods and data sources. 18 studies found a negative effect of an advertising ban on aggregate consumption, but only ten of these studies found a significant effect. Two studies using data from 22 OECD countries suggested that partial bans would have little or no influence on aggregate consumption, whereas complete bans would significantly reduce consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The results imply that advertising bans have a negative but sometimes only narrow impact on consumption. Complete bans let expect a higher effectiveness. Because of methodological restrictions of analysing advertising bans' effects by time series approaches, also different approaches should be used in the future.