Weighting of risk factors for low birth weight: a linked routine data cohort study in Wales, UK.

OBJECTIVE: Globally, 20 million children are born with a birth weight below 2500 g every year, which is considered as a low birthweight (LBW) baby. This study investigates the contribution of modifiable risk factors in a nationally representative Welsh e-cohort of children and their mothers to inform opportunities to reduce LBW prevalence. DESIGN: A longitudinal cohort study based on anonymously linked, routinely collected multiple administrative data sets. PARTICIPANTS: The cohort, (N=693 377) comprising of children born between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2018 in Wales, was selected from the National Community Child Health Database. OUTCOME MEASURES: The risk factors associated with a binary LBW (outcome) variable were investigated with multivariable logistic regression (MLR) and decision tree (DT) models. RESULTS: The MLR model showed that non-singleton children had the highest risk of LBW (adjusted OR 21.74 (95% CI 21.09 to 22.40)), followed by pregnancy interval less than 1 year (2.92 (95% CI 2.70 to 3.15)), maternal physical and mental health conditions including diabetes (2.03 (1.81 to 2.28)), anaemia (1.26 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.36)), depression (1.58 (95% CI 1.43 to 1.75)), serious mental illness (1.46 (95% CI 1.04 to 2.05)), anxiety (1.22 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.38)) and use of antidepressant medication during pregnancy (1.92 (95% CI 1.20 to 3.07)). Additional maternal risk factors include smoking (1.80 (95% CI 1.76 to 1.84)), alcohol-related hospital admission (1.60 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.97)), substance misuse (1.35 (95% CI 1.29 to 1.41)) and evidence of domestic abuse (1.98 (95% CI 1.39 to 2.81)). Living in less deprived area has lower risk of LBW (0.70 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.72)). The most important risk factors from the DT models include maternal factors such as smoking, maternal weight, substance misuse record, maternal age along with deprivation-Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation score, pregnancy interval and birth order of the child. CONCLUSION: Resources to reduce the prevalence of LBW should focus on improving maternal health, reducing preterm births, increasing awareness of what is a sufficient pregnancy interval, and to provide adequate support for mothers' mental health and well-being.

Cytogenetics of spermatocytic tumors with a discussion of gain of chromosome 12p in anaplastic variants.

Most spermatocytic tumors (STs) have an excellent prognosis. In rare instances, metastatic disease has been documented. However, it is unclear if aggressive tumors have specific molecular alterations. Herein, we have studied primary STs with (n = 4) and without (n = 3) anaplastic features, including single-nucleotide polymorphism microarrays for 5 ST (nonanaplastic: 3; anaplastic: 2). The mean age at orchiectomy and tumor size was 49 years and 6.5 cm, respectively. Lymphovascular invasion and necrosis were identified in 3 (of 4, 75%) anaplastic STs, including one with clinically metastatic disease and one with locally aggressive disease. None of the cases in this study exhibited sarcomatoid change. The mean mitotic count was higher in anaplastic tumors (59/10 versus 10/10 high-power fields). All STs in this study were positive for SALL4 and CD117 and negative for OCT3/4 and CD30 (7/7, 100%). SSX-C positivity was identified in all but the locally aggressive anaplastic ST (5 of 6, 83%). All STs showed a consistent gain of chromosome 9 including the locus for the DMRT1 gene (5 of 5 cases, 100%), while gains of chromosome 12p were only seen in 2 (of 2) anaplastic variants. Gains of 12p in anaplastic STs may represent a biomarker of transformation into more aggressive tumors. Alternatively, STs with gain of 12p may represent an intermediate state between type II and type III germ cell tumors. Future studies are needed to validate whether gain of 12p is a consistent feature of STs with anaplastic morphology and its association with aggressive clinical behavior.

Predicting Hospital Readmission for Campylobacteriosis from Electronic Health Records: A Machine Learning and Text Mining Perspective.

(1) Background: This study investigates influential risk factors for predicting 30-day readmission to hospital for Campylobacter infections (CI). (2) Methods: We linked general practitioner and hospital admission records of 13,006 patients with CI in Wales (1990-2015). An approach called TF-zR (term frequency-zRelevance) technique was presented to evaluates how relevant a clinical term is to a patient in a cohort characterized by coded health records. The zR is a supervised term-weighting metric to assign weight to a term based on relative frequencies of the term across different classes. Cost-sensitive classifier with swarm optimization and weighted subset learning was integrated to identify influential clinical signals as predictors and optimal model for readmission prediction. (3) Results: From a pool of up to 17,506 variables, 33 most predictive factors were identified, including age, gender, Townsend deprivation quintiles, comorbidities, medications, and procedures. The predictive model predicted readmission with 73% sensitivity and 54% specificity. Variables associated with readmission included male gender, recurrent tonsillitis, non-healing open wounds, operation for in-gown toenails. Cystitis, paracetamol/codeine use, age (21-25), and heliclear triple pack use, were associated with a lower risk of readmission. (4) Conclusions: This study gives a profile of clustered variables that are predictive of readmission associated with campylobacteriosis.

Hospitalised exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: adherence to guideline recommendations in an Australian teaching hospital.

BACKGROUND: Optimal management of exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) reduces patient morbidity and healthcare system burden. COPD guidelines, including the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) and the COPD-X Plan, provide evidence-based recommendations, but adherence in hospital practice is variable. AIMS: To examine current practice in management of COPD exacerbations at an Australian teaching hospital and to compare with COPD-X Plan recommendations. METHODS: Data were collected retrospectively from electronic medical records for admissions occurring during 1 May to 31 August 2016, and compared with recommendations from the COPD-X Plan. RESULTS: A total of 134 patients (n = 68 females) was admitted for a COPD exacerbation during the study period. Mean age was 75.4 ± 10.2 years and 33.6% were current smokers. Airflow obstruction on spirometry was confirmed in 67.2% (mean forced expiratory volume in 1 s was 53 ± 22% predicted (1.2 ± 0.5 L)). Excellent adherence to the COPD-X Plan was demonstrated in the ordering of chest radiographs (97%) and electrocardiograms (94%). Supplemental oxygen was appropriately provided to all patients with oxygen saturation of <88%. All patients with confirmed hypercapnic respiratory failure were managed with non-invasive ventilation. Corticosteroids and bronchodilators were prescribed for the majority of patients. Areas of suboptimal practice included inadequate usage of arterial blood gases, excess supplemental oxygen in the absence of hypoxaemia, over-prescription of intravenous antimicrobials, low referral rates to pulmonary rehabilitation and insufficient smoking cessation counselling. CONCLUSIONS: Level of adherence to guideline recommendations in the management of COPD exacerbations is inadequate and further strategies are required to elevate standards of practice.

Role of Sex Hormone Levels and Psychological Stress in the Pathogenesis of Autoimmune Diseases.

The aim of this review article is to assess the connection between psychological stress and sex hormones and their effect on the development of autoimmune diseases. Psychological stress describes what people feel when they are under mental, physical, or emotional pressure. We searched for online articles using MEDLINE®, Embase, Cochrane Library and Google Scholar. Our research yielded a total of 165 articles out of which 30 articles were considered for further perusal. The articles were reviewed from February 2016 to February 2017. Case reports and patients suffering from hematolymphoid malignancies and active infections were excluded from the review. Estrogen and testosterone are potential physiological regulatory factors for the peripheral development of CD4+CD25+ T regulatory cells. Stress at any age leads to the depletion of estrogen and testosterone stores in the body, leading to the loss of expansion of T regulatory cells, making the immature B cells evade the negative selection at the germinal center, or in other words, leading to the loss of central tolerance, a triggering event in autoimmune diseases like systemic lupus erythematosus. Autoimmune diseases in women are most likely due to changes in estrogen levels during mental, physical, pre-menopausal, post-menopausal, and pregnancy-induced stress. We conclude that modulating estrogen in females (pre-menopausal and post-menopausal) and testosterone in males can be used to treat stress-related immune imbalance resulting in autoimmune diseases in both sexes.

Physical activity and excess weight in pregnancy have independent and unique effects on delivery and perinatal outcomes.

BACKGROUND: This study examines the effect of low daily physical activity levels and overweight/obesity in pregnancy on delivery and perinatal outcomes. METHODS: A prospective cohort study combining manually collected postnatal notes with anonymised data linkage. A total of 466 women sampled from the Growing Up in Wales: Environments for Healthy Living study. Women completed a questionnaire and were included in the study if they had an available Body mass index (BMI) (collected at 12 weeks gestation from antenatal records) and/or a physical activity score during pregnancy (7-day Actigraph reading). The full statistical model included the following potential confounding factors: maternal age, parity and smoking status. Main outcome measures included induction rates, duration of labour, mode of delivery, infant health and duration of hospital stay. FINDINGS: Mothers with lower physical activity levels were more likely to have an instrumental delivery (including forceps, ventouse and elective and emergency caesarean) in comparison to mothers with higher activity levels (adjusted OR:1.72(95%CI: 1.05 to 2.9)). Overweight/obese mothers were more likely to require an induction (adjusted OR:1.93 (95%CI 1.14 to 3.26), have a macrosomic baby (adjusted OR:1.96 (95%CI 1.08 to 3.56) and a longer hospital stay after delivery (adjusted OR:2.69 (95%CI 1.11 to 6.47). CONCLUSIONS: The type of delivery was associated with maternal physical activity level and not BMI. Perinatal outcomes (large for gestational age only) were determined by maternal BMI.

Obesity in pregnancy: a retrospective prevalence-based study on health service utilisation and costs on the NHS.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct healthcare cost of being overweight or obese throughout pregnancy to the National Health Service in Wales. DESIGN: Retrospective prevalence-based study. SETTING: Combined linked anonymised electronic datasets gathered on a cohort of women enrolled on the Growing Up in Wales: Environments for Healthy Living (EHL) study. Women were categorised into two groups: normal body mass index (BMI; n=260) and overweight/obese (BMI>25; n=224). PARTICIPANTS: 484 singleton pregnancies with available health service records and an antenatal BMI. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Total health service utilisation (comprising all general practitioner visits and prescribed medications, inpatient admissions and outpatient visits) and direct healthcare costs for providing these services in the year 2011-2012. Costs are calculated as cost of mother (no infant costs are included) and are related to health service usage throughout pregnancy and 2 months following delivery. RESULTS: There was a strong association between healthcare usage cost and BMI (p<0.001). Adjusting for maternal age, parity, ethnicity and comorbidity, mean total costs were 23% higher among overweight women (rate ratios (RR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.230 to 1.233) and 37% higher among obese women (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.39) compared with women with normal weight. Adjusting for smoking, consumption of alcohol, or the presence of any comorbidities did not materially affect the results. The total mean cost estimates were £3546.3 for normal weight, £4244.4 for overweight and £4717.64 for obese women. CONCLUSIONS: Increased health service usage and healthcare costs during pregnancy are associated with increasing maternal BMI; this was apparent across all health services considered within this study. Interventions costing less than £1171.34 per person could be cost-effective if they reduce healthcare usage among obese pregnant women to levels equivalent to that of normal weight women.