Predictors of illicit substance abuse/dependence during young adulthood: A machine learning approach.

Prior studies have found an especially high prevalence of illicit substance use among adolescents and young adults in Brazil. The current study aimed to employ machine learning techniques to identify predictors of illicit substance abuse/dependence among a large community sample of young adults followed for 5 years. This prospective, population-based cohort study included a sample of young adults between the ages of 18-24 years from Pelotas, Brazil at baseline (T1). The Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) was used to assess illicit substance abuse/dependence. A clinical interview was conducted to collect data on sociodemographic characteristics and psychopathology. Elastic net was used to generate a regularized linear model for the machine learning component of this study, which followed standard machine learning protocols. A total of 1560 young adults were assessed at T1, while 1244 were reassessed at the 5-year follow-up period (T2). The strongest predictors of illicit substance abuse/dependence at baseline (AUC of 0.83) were alcohol abuse/dependence, tobacco abuse/dependence, being in a current major depressive episode, history of a lifetime manic episode, current suicide risk, and male sex. The strongest predictors for illicit substance abuse/dependence at the 5-year follow-up (AUC: 0.79) were tobacco abuse/dependence at T1, history of a lifetime manic episode at T1, male sex, alcohol abuse/dependence at T1, and current suicide risk at T1. Our findings indicate that machine learning techniques hold the potential to predict illicit substance abuse/dependence among young adults using sociodemographic/clinical characteristics, with relatively high accuracy.

Correlation between the implementation of Psychosocial Care Centers and the rates of psychiatric hospitalizations and suicide in Porto Alegre-RS from 2008 to 2018

Abstract Introduction The Brazilian psychiatric reform has revolutionized the way that mental health care is provided all over the country, introducing the Psychosocial Care Centers (CAPS) and encouraging care at liberty. The CAPS have been assigned many objectives, such as prevention of hospitalizations and intervention in crises or suicide. This paper aims to describe the correlation between the implementation of CAPS and the rates of psychiatric hospitalizations and suicides from 2008 to 2018. Methods This study has an ecological time series design and included residents of the city of Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, who were hospitalized through the Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS). The data were obtained from official databases (DATASUS, CNES, and IBGE) and indicators were calculated (CAPS coverage, hospitalization rate, and suicide rate). Associations between the indicators were tested using Pearson's correlation coefficients. Results We found a negative correlation between provision of CAPS and psychiatric hospitalizations (r = -0.607 p = 0.048). Conclusion These results support the hypothesis that there is a negative correlation between implementation of the CAPS and psychiatric hospitalizations. This reinforces the importance of implementing policies related to improving psychiatric reform.

Underage drinking in Brazil: findings from a community household survey

Objectives: Previous studies have estimated the 30-day prevalence of alcohol use to be approximately 21% among youth in Brazil, despite the legal drinking age of 18 years. The present study aimed to determine the prevalence of underage drinking and its associated factors among adolescents in Brazil. Methods: The 3rd National Survey on Drug Use by the Brazilian Population (III Levantamento Nacional sobre o Uso de Drogas pela População Brasileira) is a nationwide, multi-stage, probability-sample household survey. Herein, youth between the ages of 12-17 years were included. Lifetime and 12-month alcohol use prevalence were estimated. Factors associated with 12-month alcohol use were evaluated through multivariate analysis considering survey weights and design. Results: Overall, 628 youth were interviewed. Estimated lifetime and 12-month alcohol use were 34.3% (standard error [SE] = 1.9) and 22.2% (SE = 1.7), respectively. Factors associated with 12-month drinking were: other/no religion vs. Christianity; living in rural vs. urban areas; self-reported diagnosis of depression vs. no self-reported depression; lifetime tobacco use vs. no history of tobacco use; and any illicit drug use vs. no history of illicit drug use. Conclusion: Considering that alcohol use is a major risk factor for early death among Brazilian youth, our findings highlight the importance of preventative measures to reduce underage drinking.

Underage drinking in Brazil: findings from a community household survey.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have estimated the 30-day prevalence of alcohol use to be approximately 21% among youth in Brazil, despite the legal drinking age of 18 years. The present study aimed to determine the prevalence of underage drinking and its associated factors among adolescents in Brazil. METHODS: The 3rd National Survey on Drug Use by the Brazilian Population (III Levantamento Nacional sobre o Uso de Drogas pela População Brasileira) is a nationwide, multi-stage, probability-sample household survey. Herein, youth between the ages of 12-17 years were included. Lifetime and 12-month alcohol use prevalence were estimated. Factors associated with 12-month alcohol use were evaluated through multivariate analysis considering survey weights and design. RESULTS: Overall, 628 youth were interviewed. Estimated lifetime and 12-month alcohol use were 34.3% (standard error [SE] = 1.9) and 22.2% (SE = 1.7), respectively. Factors associated with 12-month drinking were: other/no religion vs. Christianity; living in rural vs. urban areas; self-reported diagnosis of depression vs. no self-reported depression; lifetime tobacco use vs. no history of tobacco use; and any illicit drug use vs. no history of illicit drug use. CONCLUSION: Considering that alcohol use is a major risk factor for early death among Brazilian youth, our findings highlight the importance of preventative measures to reduce underage drinking.