Development and external validation of a predictive multivariable model for last-weeks survival of advanced cancer patients in the palliative home care setting (PACS).

PURPOSE: Various prognostic indexes have been proposed to improve physicians' ability to predict survival time in advanced cancer patients, admitted to palliative care (PC) with a survival probably to a few weeks of life, but no optimal score has been identified. The study aims therefore to develop and externally validate a new multivariable predictive model in this setting. METHODS: We developed a model to predict short-term overall survival in cancer patients on the basis of clinical factors collected at PC admission. The model was developed on 1020 cancer patients prospectively enrolled to home palliative care at VIDAS Milan, Italy, between May 2018 and February 2020 and followed-up to June 2020, and validated in two separate samples of 544 home care and 247 hospice patients. RESULTS: Among 68 clinical factors considered, five predictors were included in the predictive model, i.e., rattle, heart rate, anorexia, liver failure, and the Karnofsky performance status. Patient's survival probability at 5, 15, 30 and 45 days was estimated. The predictive model showed a good calibration and moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.72 and 0.79) in the home care validation set, but model calibration was suboptimal in hospice patients. CONCLUSIONS: The new multivariable predictive model for palliative cancer patients' survival (PACS model) includes clinical parameters routinely at patient's admission to PC and can be easily used to facilitate immediate and appropriate short-term clinical decisions for PC cancer patients in the home setting.

Cognition, function, and prevalent dementia in centenarians and near-centenarians: An individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of 18 studies.

INTRODUCTION: There are limited data on prevalence of dementia in centenarians and near-centenarians (C/NC), its determinants, and whether the risk of dementia continues to rise beyond 100. METHODS: Participant-level data were obtained from 18 community-based studies (N = 4427) in 11 countries that included individuals ≥95 years. A harmonization protocol was applied to cognitive and functional impairments, and a meta-analysis was performed. RESULTS: The mean age was 98.3 years (SD = 2.67); 79% were women. After adjusting for age, sex, and education, dementia prevalence was 53.2% in women and 45.5% in men, with risk continuing to increase with age. Education (OR 0.95;0.92-0.98) was protective, as was hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 0.51;0.35-0.74) in five studies. Dementia was not associated with diabetes, vision and hearing impairments, smoking, and body mass index (BMI). DISCUSSION: Among the exceptional old, dementia prevalence remains higher in the older participants. Education was protective against dementia, but other factors for dementia-free survival in C/NC remain to be understood.

Prevalence of Delirium in End-of-Life Palliative Care Patients: An Observational Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of delirium, using the Assessment Test for Delirium and Cognitive Impairment (4AT) in end-of-life palliative care patients. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on end-of-life patients in a hospice or at home. All patients were evaluated with the 4AT for the presence of delirium. RESULTS: Of the 461 patients analyzed, 76 (16.5%) were inpatients and 83.5% (385) outpatients. The median age was 79.5 (72-86) years, and 51.0% were female. According to the 4AT score, 126 patients (27.3%) had delirium (A4T ≥4) at admission, 28 (36.8%) were inpatients, and 98 (25.5%) outpatients. Around 33.8% of the cancer inpatients had delirium, while 20.6% of the cancer outpatients had delirium. The prevalence of delirium varied according to the setting, clinical condition, and life expectancy. In addition, 55.0% (11) actively dying inpatients, within 3 days, had delirium, and 56.7% (17) outpatients had delirium; while among those with life expectancy longer than 4 days, 30.4% (17) inpatients and 22.8% (81) outpatients were with delirium. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms that delirium is common in cancer and noncancer palliative care patients. Further research on delirium in end-of-life palliative care patients should consider the complexity of palliative care of this population as well as of the characteristics of the settings.

Anticholinergic load and delirium in end-of-life patients.

BACKGROUND: Delirium is a neuropsychiatric syndrome associated with negative outcomes, including worsening of cognitive and functional status and an increased burden on patients and caregivers. Medications with anticholinergic effect have been associated with delirium symptoms, but the relationship is still debated. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation between delirium and anticholinergic load according to the hypothesis that the cumulative anticholinergic burden increases the risk of delirium. METHODS: This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted in a sample of end-of-life patients in a hospice or living at home between February and August 2019. Delirium was diagnosed on admission using the 4 'A's Test (4AT) and each patient's anticholinergic burden was measured with the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale. RESULTS: Of the 461 eligible for analysis, 124 (26.9%) had delirium. Anticholinergic medications were associated with an increased risk of delirium in univariate (OR (95% CI) 1.26 (1.16-1.38), p < 0.0001) and multivariate models adjusted for age, sex, dementia, tumors, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) score, days of palliative assistance, and setting (OR (95% CI) 1.16 (1.05-1.28), p < 0.0001). Patients with delirium had a greater anticholinergic burden than those without, with a dose-effect relationship between total ACB score and delirium. Patients who scored 4 or more had 2 or 3 times the risk of delirium than those not taking anticholinergic drugs. The dose-response relationship was maintained in the multivariate model. CONCLUSIONS: Anticholinergic drugs may influence the development of delirium due to the cumulative effect of multiple medications with modest antimuscarinic activity.

Prevalence of Preventive and Symptomatic Drug Treatments in Hospice Care: An Italian Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of pharmacotherapy in people at the end of life should be symptom control, more than prolonging life. Drugs for disease prevention should therefore be discouraged, but this is not the usual practice. The prevalence of unnecessary preventive drugs at the end of life is not well described, although some studies suggest it is common. METHODS: This retrospective longitudinal study describes the prevalence of patients receiving preventive and symptomatic drug treatments at admission (T1) and before death (T2) in an Italian hospice. All adults admitted to the VIDAS hospice between March 2015 and February 2017 were included in the analysis. RESULTS: The study sample comprised 589 end-of-life patients with a mean age of 75.3 (12.1) years. The mean number of drugs decreased from admission to the hospice to the time of death (mean [standard deviation]: 9.7 [3.4] and 8.7 [3.0]). All patients were appropriately treated with symptomatic drugs at T1 and T2, while there were significantly fewer patients from T1 to T2 with at least 1 preventive medication that could be considered for deprescription at the end of life (511, 86.8% and 286, 48.6%; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Hospice admission can be associated with a definite reduction in the use of commonly prescribed preventive medications. However, about half of end-of-life patients can be prescribed avoidable medications. Drugs for peptic ulcer and gastroesophageal reflux disease and antithrombotics were the potentially avoidable preventive medications most frequently prescribed at admission to the hospice and before death.

Prevalence, incidence and types of mild anemia in the elderly: the "Health and Anemia" population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Hemoglobin concentrations slightly below the lower limit of normal are a common laboratory finding in the elderly, but scant evidence is available on the actual occurrence of mild anemia despite its potential effect on health. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence and incidence of mild grade anemia and to assess the frequency of anemia types in the elderly. DESIGN AND METHODS: This was a prospective, population-based study in all residents 65 years or older in Biella, Italy. RESULTS: Blood test results were available for analysis from 8,744 elderly. Hemoglobin concentration decreased and mild anemia increased steadily with increasing age. Mild anemia (defined as a hemoglobin concentration of 10.0-11.9 g/dL in women and 10.0-12.9 g/dL in men) affected 11.8% of the elderly included in the analysis, while the estimated prevalence in the entire population was 11.1%. Before hemoglobin determination, most mildly anemic individuals perceived themselves as non-anemic. Chronic disease anemia, thalassemia trait, and renal insufficiency were the most frequent types of mild anemia. The underlying cause of mild anemia remained unexplained in 26.4% of the cases, almost one third of which might be accounted for by myelodysplastic syndromes. In a random sample of non-anemic elderly at baseline (n=529), after about 2 years, the annual incidence rate of mild anemia was 22.5 per 1000 person-years and increased with increasing age. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence and incidence of mild anemia increase with age and mild anemia affects more than one out of ten elderly individuals. Unexplained anemia is common and may be due to myelodysplastic syndromes in some cases.