Can Machine Learning Overcome the 95% Failure Rate and Reality that Only 30% of Approved Cancer Drugs Meaningfully Extend Patient Survival?

Despite implementing hundreds of strategies, cancer drug development suffers from a 95% failure rate over 30 years, with only 30% of approved cancer drugs extending patient survival beyond 2.5 months. Adding more criteria without eliminating nonessential ones is impractical and may fall into the "survivorship bias" trap. Machine learning (ML) models may enhance efficiency by saving time and cost. Yet, they may not improve success rate without identifying the root causes of failure. We propose a "STAR-guided ML system" (structure-tissue/cell selectivity-activity relationship) to enhance success rate and efficiency by addressing three overlooked interdependent factors: potency/specificity to the on/off-targets determining efficacy in tumors at clinical doses, on/off-target-driven tissue/cell selectivity influencing adverse effects in the normal organs at clinical doses, and optimal clinical doses balancing efficacy/safety as determined by potency/specificity and tissue/cell selectivity. STAR-guided ML models can directly predict clinical dose/efficacy/safety from five features to design/select the best drugs, enhancing success and efficiency of cancer drug development.

Prophylactic Mitigation of Acute Graft versus Host Disease by Novel 2-(Pyrrolidin-1-ylmethyl)pyrrole-Based Stimulation-2 (ST2) Inhibitors.

Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a proven and potentially curable therapy for hematological malignancies and inherited hematological disease. The main risk of HCT is the development of graft versus host disease (GVHD) acquired in up to 50% of patients. Upregulation of soluble ST2 (sST2) is a key clinical biomarker for GVHD prognosis and was shown to be a potential therapeutic target for GVHD. Agents targeting sST2 to reduce the sST2 level after HCT have the potential to mitigate GVHD progression. Here, we report 32 (or XY52) as the lead ST2 inhibitor from our optimization campaign. XY52 had improved inhibitory activity and metabolic stability in vitro and in vivo. XY52 suppressed proinflammatory T-cell proliferation while increasing regulatory T cells in vitro. In a clinically relevant GVHD model, a 21-day prophylactic regimen of XY52 reduced plasma sST2 and IFN-γ levels and GVHD score and extended survival in mice. XY52 represented a significant improvement over our previous compound, iST2-1, and further optimization of XY52 is warranted. The small-molecule ST2 inhibitors can potentially be used as a biomarker-guided therapy for mitigating GVHD in future clinical applications.

Structure-Activity relationship of 1-(Furan-2ylmethyl)Pyrrolidine-Based Stimulation-2 (ST2) inhibitors for treating graft versus host disease.

An elevated plasma level of soluble ST2 (sST2) is a risk biomarker for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and death in patients receiving hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). sST2 functions as a trap for IL-33 and amplifies the pro-inflammatory type 1 and 17 response while suppressing the tolerogenic type 2 and regulatory T cells activation during GVHD development. We previously identified small-molecule ST2 inhibitors particularly iST2-1 that reduces plasma sST2 levels and improved survival in two animal models. Here, we reported the structure-activity relationship of the furanylmethylpyrrolidine-based ST2 inhibitors based on iST2-1. Based on the biochemical AlphaLISA assay, we improved the activity of iST2-1 by 6-fold (∼6 µM in IC50 values) in the inhibition of ST2/IL-33 and confirmed the activities of the compounds in a cellular reporter assay. To determine the inhibition of the alloreactivity in vitro, we used the mixed lymphocyte reaction assay to demonstrate that our ST2 inhibitors decreased CD4+ and CD8+ T cells proliferation and increased Treg population. The data presented in this work are critical to the development of ST2 inhibitors in future.

Glycine-based treatment ameliorates NAFLD by modulating fatty acid oxidation, glutathione synthesis, and the gut microbiome.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) has reached epidemic proportions with no pharmacological therapy approved. Lower circulating glycine is consistently reported in patients with NAFLD, but the causes for reduced glycine, its role as a causative factor, and its therapeutic potential remain unclear. We performed transcriptomics in livers from humans and mice with NAFLD and found suppression of glycine biosynthetic genes, primarily alanine-glyoxylate aminotransferase 1 (AGXT1). Genetic (Agxt1 -/- mice) and dietary approaches to limit glycine availability resulted in exacerbated diet-induced hyperlipidemia and steatohepatitis, with suppressed mitochondrial/peroxisomal fatty acid ß-oxidation (FAO) and enhanced inflammation as the underlying pathways. We explored glycine-based compounds with dual lipid/glucose-lowering properties as potential therapies for NAFLD and identified a tripeptide (Gly-Gly-L-Leu, DT-109) that improved body composition and lowered circulating glucose, lipids, transaminases, proinflammatory cytokines, and steatohepatitis in mice with established NASH induced by a high-fat, cholesterol, and fructose diet. We applied metagenomics, transcriptomics, and metabolomics to explore the underlying mechanisms. The bacterial genus Clostridium sensu stricto was markedly increased in mice with NASH and decreased after DT-109 treatment. DT-109 induced hepatic FAO pathways, lowered lipotoxicity, and stimulated de novo glutathione synthesis. In turn, inflammatory infiltration and hepatic fibrosis were attenuated via suppression of NF-κB target genes and TGFß/SMAD signaling. Unlike its effects on the gut microbiome, DT-109 stimulated FAO and glutathione synthesis independent of NASH. In conclusion, impaired glycine metabolism may play a causative role in NAFLD. Glycine-based treatment attenuates experimental NAFLD by stimulating hepatic FAO and glutathione synthesis, thus warranting clinical evaluation.

From proteomics to discovery of first-in-class ST2 inhibitors active in vivo.

Soluble cytokine receptors function as decoy receptors to attenuate cytokine-mediated signaling and modulate downstream cellular responses. Dysregulated overproduction of soluble receptors can be pathological, such as soluble ST2 (sST2), a prognostic biomarker in cardiovascular diseases, ulcerative colitis, and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Although intervention using an ST2 antibody improves survival in murine GVHD models, sST2 is a challenging target for drug development because it binds to IL-33 via an extensive interaction interface. Here, we report the discovery of small-molecule ST2 inhibitors through a combination of high-throughput screening and computational analysis. After in vitro and in vivo toxicity assessment, 3 compounds were selected for evaluation in 2 experimental GVHD models. We show that the most effective compound, iST2-1, reduces plasma sST2 levels, alleviates disease symptoms, improves survival, and maintains graft-versus-leukemia activity. Our data suggest that iST2-1 warrants further optimization to develop treatment for inflammatory diseases mediated by sST2.

Total synthesis and biological evaluation of pederin, psymberin, and highly potent analogs.

The potent cytotoxins pederin and psymberin have been prepared through concise synthetic routes (10 and 14 steps in the longest linear sequences, respectively) that proceed via a late-stage multicomponent approach to construct the N-acyl aminal linkages. This route allowed for the facile preparation of a number of analogs that were designed to explore the importance of the alkoxy group in the N-acyl aminal and functional groups in the two major subunits on biological activity. These analogs, including a pederin/psymberin chimera, were analyzed for their growth inhibitory effects, revealing several new potent cytotoxins and leading to postulates regarding the molecular conformational and hydrogen bonding patterns that are required for biological activity. Second generation analogs have been prepared based on the results of the initial assays and a structure-based model for the binding of these compounds to the ribosome. The growth inhibitory properties of these compounds are reported. These studies show the profound role that organic chemistry in general and specifically late-stage multicomponent reactions can play in the development of unique and potent effectors for biological responses.

An oxidative entry into the amido trioxadecalin ring system.

The amido trioxadecalin ring system is a key structural component of the architecturally interesting anticancer and immunosuppressive agents of the mycalamide, theopederin, and onnamide families of natural products. We report a new entry into this structure in which a mixed acetal serves as a surrogate for a formaldehyde hemiacetal in an addition to an oxidatively generated acyliminium ion. The stereochemical outcome of this process can be explained by the conformational preferences of the product ring system. [reaction: see text]