Development and external validation of a prediction model for the transition from mild to moderate or severe form of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 pandemic seems to be under control. However, despite the vaccines, 5 to 10% of the patients with mild disease develop moderate to critical forms with potential lethal evolution. In addition to assess lung infection spread, chest CT helps to detect complications. Developing a prediction model to identify at-risk patients of worsening from mild COVID-19 combining simple clinical and biological parameters with qualitative or quantitative data using CT would be relevant to organizing optimal patient management. METHODS: Four French hospitals were used for model training and internal validation. External validation was conducted in two independent hospitals. We used easy-to-obtain clinical (age, gender, smoking, symptoms' onset, cardiovascular comorbidities, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, immunosuppression) and biological parameters (lymphocytes, CRP) with qualitative or quantitative data (including radiomics) from the initial CT in mild COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: Qualitative CT scan with clinical and biological parameters can predict which patients with an initial mild presentation would develop a moderate to critical form of COVID-19, with a c-index of 0.70 (95% CI 0.63; 0.77). CT scan quantification improved the performance of the prediction up to 0.73 (95% CI 0.67; 0.79) and radiomics up to 0.77 (95% CI 0.71; 0.83). Results were similar in both validation cohorts, considering CT scans with or without injection. CONCLUSION: Adding CT scan quantification or radiomics to simple clinical and biological parameters can better predict which patients with an initial mild COVID-19 would worsen than qualitative analyses alone. This tool could help to the fair use of healthcare resources and to screen patients for potential new drugs to prevent a pejorative evolution of COVID-19. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04481620. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: CT scan quantification or radiomics analysis is superior to qualitative analysis, when used with simple clinical and biological parameters, to determine which patients with an initial mild presentation of COVID-19 would worsen to a moderate to critical form. KEY POINTS: • Qualitative CT scan analyses with simple clinical and biological parameters can predict which patients with an initial mild COVID-19 and respiratory symptoms would worsen with a c-index of 0.70. • Adding CT scan quantification improves the performance of the clinical prediction model to an AUC of 0.73. • Radiomics analyses slightly improve the performance of the model to a c-index of 0.77.

Amino Acid Profiles in Older Adults with Frailty: Secondary Analysis from MetaboFrail and BIOSPHERE Studies.

An altered amino acid metabolism has been described in frail older adults which may contribute to muscle loss and functional decline associated with frailty. In the present investigation, we compared circulating amino acid profiles of older adults with physical frailty and sarcopenia (PF&S, n = 94), frail/pre-frail older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (F-T2DM, n = 66), and robust non-diabetic controls (n = 40). Partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) models were built to define the amino acid signatures associated with the different frailty phenotypes. PLS-DA allowed correct classification of participants with 78.2 ± 1.9% accuracy. Older adults with F-T2DM showed an amino acid profile characterized by higher levels of 3-methylhistidine, alanine, arginine, ethanolamine, and glutamic acid. PF&S and control participants were discriminated based on serum concentrations of aminoadipic acid, aspartate, citrulline, cystine, taurine, and tryptophan. These findings suggest that different types of frailty may be characterized by distinct metabolic perturbations. Amino acid profiling may therefore serve as a valuable tool for frailty biomarker discovery.

Tranexamic acid for the prevention of blood loss after cesarean among women with twins: a secondary analysis of the TRAnexamic Acid for Preventing Postpartum Hemorrhage Following a Cesarean Delivery randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Although prophylactic tranexamic acid administration after cesarean delivery resulted in a lower incidence of calculated estimated blood loss of >1000 mL or red cell transfusion by day 2, its failure to reduce the incidence of hemorrhage-related secondary clinical outcomes (TRAnexamic Acid for Preventing Postpartum Hemorrhage Following a Cesarean Delivery trial) makes its use questionable. The magnitude of its effect may differ in women at higher risk of blood loss, including those with multiple pregnancies. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the effect of tranexamic acid vs placebo to prevent blood loss after cesarean delivery among women with multiple pregnancies. STUDY DESIGN: This was a secondary analysis of the TRAnexamic Acid for Preventing Postpartum Hemorrhage Following a Cesarean Delivery trial data, a double-blind, randomized controlled trial from March 2018 to January 2020 in 27 French maternity hospitals, that included 319 women with multiple pregnancies. Women with a cesarean delivery before or during labor at ≥34 weeks of gestation were randomized to receive intravenously 1 g of tranexamic acid (n=160) or placebo (n=159), both with prophylactic uterotonics. The primary outcome was a calculated estimated blood loss of >1000 mL or a red blood cell transfusion by 2 days after delivery. The secondary outcomes included clinical and laboratory blood loss measurements. RESULTS: Of the 4551 women randomized in this trial, 319 had a multiple pregnancy and cesarean delivery, and 298 (93.4%) had primary outcome data available. This outcome occurred in 62 of 147 women (42.2%) in the tranexamic acid group and 67 of 152 (44.1%) receiving placebo (adjusted risk ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.38; P=.86). No significant between-group differences occurred for any hemorrhage-related clinical outcomes: gravimetrically estimated blood loss, provider-assessed clinically significant hemorrhage, additional uterotonics, postpartum blood transfusion, arterial embolization, and emergency surgery (P>.05 for all comparisons). CONCLUSION: Among women with a multiple pregnancy and cesarean delivery, prophylactic tranexamic acid did not reduce the incidence of any blood loss-related outcomes.

Protein intake, weight loss, dietary intervention, and worsening of quality of life in older patients during chemotherapy for cancer.

Decreased health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is common in patients with cancer. We investigated the effects of dietary intervention and baseline nutritional status on worsening of HRQoL in older patients during chemotherapy. In this randomized control trial assessing the effect on mortality of dietary advice to increase dietary intake during chemotherapy, this post hoc analysis included 155 patients with cancer at risk of malnutrition. The effects of dietary intervention, baseline Mini Nutritional Assessment item scores, weight loss, and protein and energy intake before treatment on the worsening of HRQoL (physical functioning, fatigue) and secondary outcomes (Timed Up and Go test, one-leg stance time, depressive symptoms, basic (ADL), or instrumental (IADL) activities of daily living) were analyzed by multinomial regressions. Dietary intervention increased total energy and protein intake but had no effect on any examined outcomes. Worsening of fatigue and ADL was predicted by very low protein intake (< 0.8 g kg-1 day-1) before chemotherapy (OR 3.02, 95% CI 1.22-7.46, p = 0.018 and OR 5.21, 95% CI 1.18-22.73, p = 0.029 respectively). Increase in depressive symptomatology was predicted by 5.0-9.9% weight loss before chemotherapy (OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.10-6.80, p = 0.038). Nutritional intervention to prevent HRQoL decline during chemotherapy should focus on patients with very low protein intake along with those with weight loss.

Quality of Life: Psychological Symptoms-Effects of a 2-Month Healthy Diet and Nutraceutical Intervention; A Randomized, Open-Label Intervention Trial (RISTOMED).

Depression symptoms and lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are associated with inflammation. This multicenter dietary intervention was shown to reduce inflammation in older people. This was the main outcome. Here, we describe the effects on HRQoL, anxiety, and depressive symptoms according to inflammation status. Overall, 125 healthy older subjects (65-80 year) were recruited (Italy, France, and Germany) and randomized into four arms (A, Healthy diet (HD); B, HD plus De Simone Formulation probiotic blend; C, HD plus AISA d-Limonene; D, HD plus Argan oil). The HD was weight maintaining, rich in antioxidant vitamins, polyphenols, polyunsaturated fatty acids (n6: n3 ratio = 3:1), and fiber. Data on inflammatory parameters, mental (MCS) and physical (PCS) component summaries of HRQoL (SF-36), anxiety symptoms (STAI state), and depressive symptoms (CES-D) were collected before and after 56 days of intervention. Body fat mass proportion (BFM) was considered a co-variable. A decrease of CES-D score was seen in the four arms (A: -40.0%, p = 0.001; B: -32.5%, p = 0.023; C: -42.8%, p = 0.004; and D: -33.3%, p = 0.21). Within the subgroups of subjects with medium/high inflammation a similar decrease in CES-D score occurred in all groups (A: -44.8%, p = 0.021; B, -46.7%, p = 0.024; C, -52.2%, p = 0.039; D, -43.8%, p = 0.037). The effect of interventions on CES-D was not related to baseline inflammation. MCS-HRQoL improved in A and C. There was no change in anxiety or PCS-HRQoL. In this trial with no control group, a decrease in depressive symptoms in healthy older volunteers was observed after a 2-month healthy diet intervention, independently of inflammation but with possible limitations due to participation.

Effectiveness of a multimodal intervention in functionally impaired older people with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes, a highly prevalent chronic disease, is associated with increasing frailty and functional decline in older people. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a multimodal intervention on functional performance in frail and pre-frail participants aged ≥70 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The MID-Frail study was a cluster-randomized multicenter clinical trial conducted in 74 trial sites across seven European countries. The trial recruited 964 participants who were aged >70 years [mean age in intervention group, 78.4 (SD 5.6) years, 49.2% male and 77.6 (SD 5.29) years, 52.4% male in usual care group], with type diabetes mellitus and determined to be frail or pre-frail using Fried's frailty phenotype. Participants were allocated by trial site to follow either usual care (UCG) or intervention procedures (IG). Intervention group participants received a multimodal intervention composed of (i) an individualized and progressive resistance exercise programme for 16 weeks; (ii) a structured diabetes and nutritional educational programme over seven sessions; and (iii) Investigator-linked training to ensure optimal diabetes care. Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) scores were used to assess change in functional performance at 12 months between the groups. An analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the intervention was undertaken using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Secondary outcomes included mortality, hospitalization, institutionalization, quality of life, burden on caregivers, the frequency and severity of hypoglycaemia episodes, and the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. RESULTS: After 12 months, IG participants had mean SPPB scores 0.85 points higher than those in the UCG (95% CI, 0.44 to 1.26, P < 0.0001). Dropouts were higher in frail participants and in the intervention group, but significant differences in SPPB between treatment groups remained consistent after sensitivity analysis. Estimates suggest a mean saving following intervention of 428.02 EUR (2016) per patient per year, with ICER analysis indicating a consistent benefit of the described health care intervention over usual care. No statistically significant differences between groups were detected in any of the other secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that a 12 month structured multimodal intervention programme across several clinical settings in different European countries leads to a clinically relevant and cost-effective improvement in the functional status of older frail and pre-frail participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Effects of a physical activity programme to prevent physical performance decline in onco-geriatric patients: a randomized multicentre trial.

BACKGROUND: Older adults with cancer experience negative long-term functional effects of both cancer and treatments. Exercise may minimize their age-related and cancer-related functional decline. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre open-label 12 month randomized clinical trial with two parallel arms including participants aged ≥70 years with lymphoma or carcinoma requiring curative treatment. The study started at the beginning of any phase of cancer treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, or radiotherapy). The usual care group (UCG) received the current national recommendations in physical activity (a guideline without specific counselling). The intervention group (IG) received 1 year phoned physical activity advice individually adapted to physical assessment (twice a month during the first 6 months and then monthly). The primary outcome was the proportion of subjects with a 1 year decreased short physical performance battery (SPPB) score of 1 point or more. Physical, cognitive, and clinical secondary outcomes were also investigated. RESULTS: We allocated 301 participants (age 76.7 ± 5.0, female 60.6%) to each group. At baseline, the median SPPB was 10/12 in both groups. Breast was the most frequent tumour site (35.7%). After 1 year, 14.0% of participants in the UCG and 18.7% in the IG had a decrease in SPPB score of 1 point or more (P = 0.772). At 2 years, there was no difference in SPPB, gait speed, International Physical Activity Questionnaire score, and verbal fluency. Subgroup analyses after 2 years showed a decline in SPPB for 29.8% of UCG and 5.0% of IG breast cancer participants (P = 0.006), in 21.7% of UCG and 6.2% of IG female participants (P = 0.019), and in 24.5% of UCG and 11.1% of IG normal nutritional status participants (P = 0.009). Falls, hospitalization, institutionalization, and death rates were similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Personalized phoned physical activity advice had not reduced functional decline at 1 year but provided preliminary evidence that may prevent physical performance decline at 2 years in older adults with breast cancer.

Glycaemic response after intake of a high energy, high protein, diabetes-specific formula in older malnourished or at risk of malnutrition type 2 diabetes patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several studies with diabetes-specific formulas (DSFs) for hyperglycaemic patients in need of nutritional support have been conducted in non-malnourished patients, mainly comparing products with varying macronutrient compositions. Here, the effect of a high energy, high protein DSF on postprandial responses was compared to a product with a similar macronutrient composition in malnourished or at risk of malnutrition patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In this randomised, double-blind cross-over study, 20 patients were included. After overnight fasting, patients consumed 200 mL of a DSF or standard supplement (control) (19.6 g protein, 31.2 g carbohydrates and 10.6 g fat), while continuing their anti-diabetic medication. The formulas differed in type of carbohydrates and presence of fibre. The postprandial glucose, insulin and glucagon responses were monitored over 4 h. Data were analysed with a Linear Mixed Model, and results of the modified ITT population (n = 19) are shown. RESULTS: Postprandial glucose response as incremental area under the curve (iAUC), was lower after consumption of DSF compared with control (489.7 ± 268.5 (mean ± SD) vs 581.3 ± 273.9 mmol/L min, respectively; p = 0.008). Also, the incremental maximum concentration of glucose (iCmax) was lower for DSF vs control (3.5 ± 1.4 vs 4.0 ± 1.4 mmol/L; p = 0.007). Postprandial insulin and glucagon levels, expressed as iAUC or iCmax, were not significantly different between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of a high energy, high protein DSF by older malnourished or at risk of malnutrition type 2 diabetes patients resulted in a significantly lower glucose response compared to control. These data suggest that the use of a DSF is preferred for patients with diabetes in need of nutritional support.