Extrachromosomal DNA in the cancerous transformation of Barrett's oesophagus.

Oncogene amplification on extrachromosomal DNA (ecDNA) drives the evolution of tumours and their resistance to treatment, and is associated with poor outcomes for patients with cancer1-6. At present, it is unclear whether ecDNA is a later manifestation of genomic instability, or whether it can be an early event in the transition from dysplasia to cancer. Here, to better understand the development of ecDNA, we analysed whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) or Barrett's oesophagus. These data included 206 biopsies in Barrett's oesophagus surveillance and EAC cohorts from Cambridge University. We also analysed WGS and histology data from biopsies that were collected across multiple regions at 2 time points from 80 patients in a case-control study at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center. In the Cambridge cohorts, the frequency of ecDNA increased between Barrett's-oesophagus-associated early-stage (24%) and late-stage (43%) EAC, suggesting that ecDNA is formed during cancer progression. In the cohort from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, 33% of patients who developed EAC had at least one oesophageal biopsy with ecDNA before or at the diagnosis of EAC. In biopsies that were collected before cancer diagnosis, higher levels of ecDNA were present in samples from patients who later developed EAC than in samples from those who did not. We found that ecDNAs contained diverse collections of oncogenes and immunomodulatory genes. Furthermore, ecDNAs showed increases in copy number and structural complexity at more advanced stages of disease. Our findings show that ecDNA can develop early in the transition from high-grade dysplasia to cancer, and that ecDNAs progressively form and evolve under positive selection.

Somatic whole genome dynamics of precancer in Barrett's esophagus reveals features associated with disease progression.

While the genomes of normal tissues undergo dynamic changes over time, little is understood about the temporal-spatial dynamics of genomes in premalignant tissues that progress to cancer compared to those that remain cancer-free. Here we use whole genome sequencing to contrast genomic alterations in 427 longitudinal samples from 40 patients with stable Barrett's esophagus compared to 40 Barrett's patients who progressed to esophageal adenocarcinoma (ESAD). We show the same somatic mutational processes are active in Barrett's tissue regardless of outcome, with high levels of mutation, ESAD gene and focal chromosomal alterations, and similar mutational signatures. The critical distinction between stable Barrett's versus those who progress to cancer is acquisition and expansion of TP53-/- cell populations having complex structural variants and high-level amplifications, which are detectable up to six years prior to a cancer diagnosis. These findings reveal the timing of common somatic genome dynamics in stable Barrett's esophagus and define key genomic features specific to progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma, both of which are critical for cancer prevention and early detection strategies.

Within-patient phylogenetic reconstruction reveals early events in Barrett's Esophagus.

Barrett's Esophagus is a neoplastic condition which progresses to esophageal adenocarcinoma in 5% of cases. Key events affecting the outcome likely occur before diagnosis of Barrett's and cannot be directly observed; we use phylogenetic analysis to infer such past events. We performed whole-genome sequencing on 4-6 samples from 40 cancer outcome and 40 noncancer outcome patients with Barrett's Esophagus, and inferred within-patient phylogenies of deconvoluted clonal lineages. Spatially proximate lineages clustered in the phylogenies, but temporally proximate ones did not. Lineages with inferred loss-of-function mutations in both copies of TP53 and CDKN2A showed enhanced spatial spread, whereas lineages with loss-of-function mutations in other frequently mutated loci did not. We propose a two-phase model with expansions of TP53 and CKDN2A mutant lineages during initial growth of the segment, followed by relative stasis. Subsequent to initial expansion, mutations in these loci as well as ARID1A and SMARCA4 may show a local selective advantage but do not expand far: The spatial structure of the Barrett's segment remains stable during surveillance even in patients who go on to cancer. We conclude that the cancer/noncancer outcome is strongly affected by early steps in formation of the Barrett's segment.

Distinct Classes of Complex Structural Variation Uncovered across Thousands of Cancer Genome Graphs.

Cancer genomes often harbor hundreds of somatic DNA rearrangement junctions, many of which cannot be easily classified into simple (e.g., deletion) or complex (e.g., chromothripsis) structural variant classes. Applying a novel genome graph computational paradigm to analyze the topology of junction copy number (JCN) across 2,778 tumor whole-genome sequences, we uncovered three novel complex rearrangement phenomena: pyrgo, rigma, and tyfonas. Pyrgo are "towers" of low-JCN duplications associated with early-replicating regions, superenhancers, and breast or ovarian cancers. Rigma comprise "chasms" of low-JCN deletions enriched in late-replicating fragile sites and gastrointestinal carcinomas. Tyfonas are "typhoons" of high-JCN junctions and fold-back inversions associated with expressed protein-coding fusions, breakend hypermutation, and acral, but not cutaneous, melanomas. Clustering of tumors according to genome graph-derived features identified subgroups associated with DNA repair defects and poor prognosis.

Sex-Specific Genetic Associations for Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and its premalignant lesion, Barrett's esophagus (BE), are characterized by a strong and yet unexplained male predominance (with a male-to-female ratio in EA incidence of up to 6:1). Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 20 susceptibility loci for these conditions. However, potential sex differences in genetic associations with BE/EA remain largely unexplored. METHODS: Given strong genetic overlap, BE and EA cases were combined into a single case group for analysis. These were compared with population-based controls. We performed sex-specific GWAS of BE/EA in 3 separate studies and then used fixed-effects meta-analysis to provide summary estimates for >9 million variants for male and female individuals. A series of downstream analyses were conducted separately in male and female individuals to identify genes associated with BE/EA and the genetic correlations between BE/EA and other traits. RESULTS: We included 6758 male BE/EA cases, 7489 male controls, 1670 female BE/EA cases, and 6174 female controls. After Bonferroni correction, our meta-analysis of sex-specific GWAS identified 1 variant at chromosome 6q11.1 (rs112894788, KHDRBS2-MTRNR2L9, PBONF = .039) that was statistically significantly associated with BE/EA risk in male individuals only, and 1 variant at chromosome 8p23.1 (rs13259457, PRSS55-RP1L1, PBONF = 0.057) associated, at borderline significance, with BE/EA risk in female individuals only. We also observed strong genetic correlations of BE/EA with gastroesophageal reflux disease in male individuals and obesity in female individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The identified novel sex-specific variants associated with BE/EA could improve the understanding of the genetic architecture of the disease and the reasons for the male predominance.

Remediation of cadmium and lead polluted soil using thiol-modified biochar.

Thiol-modified rice straw biochar (RS) was prepared by an esterification reaction with ß-mercaptoethanol and used for the remediation of Cd and Pb polluted soils. Modified biochar was characterized through elemental analysis, BET analysis, FE-SEM, FT-IR and XPS. These analytical results revealed that thiol groups were successfully grafted onto the surface of the biochar and were involved in metal ion complexation. Batch sorption experiments indicated that Cd2+ and Pb2+ sorption onto RS described well by a pseudo second order kinetic model and a Langmuir isotherm. The maximum adsorption capacities for Cd2+ and Pb2+, in the single-metal systems, were 45.1 and 61.4 mg g-1, respectively. In the binary-metal systems, RS selectively adsorbed Cd2+ over Pb2+. Cd2+ and Pb2+ were removed mainly through surface complexation. In the soil incubation experiments (28 days), RS reduced the available Cd by 34.8-39.2 %; while, RS reduced the available Pb by 8.6 %-11.1 %. This research demonstrates RS as a potentially effective amendment for the remediation of heavy metal polluted soils.

Association Between Levels of Sex Hormones and Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma and Barrett's Esophagus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) occurs most frequently in men. We performed a Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate whether genetic factors that regulate levels of sex hormones are associated with risk of EAC or Barrett's esophagus (BE). METHODS: We conducted a Mendelian randomization analysis using data from patients with EAC (n = 2488) or BE (n = 3247) and control participants (n = 2127), included in international consortia of genome-wide association studies in Australia, Europe, and North America. Genetic risk scores or single-nucleotide variants were used as instrumental variables for 9 specific sex hormones. Logistic regression provided odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Higher genetically predicted levels of follicle-stimulating hormones were associated with increased risks of EAC and/or BE in men (OR, 1.14 per allele increase; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27) and in women (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.03-1.59). Higher predicted levels of luteinizing hormone were associated with a decreased risk of EAC in men (OR, 0.92 per SD increase; 95% CI, 0.87-0.99) and in women (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.79-1.09), and decreased risks of BE (OR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.77-0.99) and EAC and/or BE (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.79-1.00) in women. We found no clear associations for other hormones studied, including sex hormone-binding globulin, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, testosterone, dihydrotestosterone, estradiol, progesterone, or free androgen index. CONCLUSIONS: In a Mendelian randomization analysis of data from patients with EAC or BE, we found an association between genetically predicted levels of follicle-stimulating and luteinizing hormones and risk of BE and EAC.

Correction to: NSAID use and somatic exomic mutations in Barrett's esophagus.

It was highlighted that in the original article [1] the Availability of data and materials section was incorrect.

No Association Between Vitamin D Status and Risk of Barrett's Esophagus or Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Epidemiology studies of circulating concentrations of 25 hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) have produced conflicting results. We conducted a Mendelian randomization study to determine the associations between circulating concentrations of 25(OH)D and risks of EAC and its precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE). METHODS: We conducted a Mendelian randomization study using a 2-sample (summary data) approach. Six single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs3755967, rs10741657, rs12785878, rs10745742, rs8018720, and rs17216707) associated with circulating concentrations of 25(OH)D were used as instrumental variables. We collected data from 6167 patients with BE, 4112 patients with EAC, and 17,159 individuals without BE or EAC (controls) participating in the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium, as well as studies from Bonn, Germany, and Cambridge and Oxford, United Kingdom. Analyses were performed separately for BE and EAC. RESULTS: Overall, we found no evidence for an association between genetically estimated 25(OH)D concentration and risk of BE or EAC. The odds ratio per 20 nmol/L increase in genetically estimated 25(OH)D concentration for BE risk estimated by combining the individual SNP association using inverse variance weighting was 1.21 (95% CI, 0.77-1.92; P = .41). The odds ratio for EAC risk, estimated by combining the individual SNP association using inverse variance weighting, was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.39-1.19; P = .18). CONCLUSIONS: In a Mendelian randomization study, we found that low genetically estimated 25(OH)D concentrations were not associated with risk of BE or EAC.

Interactions Between Genetic Variants and Environmental Factors Affect Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma and Barrett's Esophagus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 20 susceptibility loci for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and Barrett's esophagus (BE). However, variants in these loci account for a small fraction of cases of EA and BE. Genetic factors might interact with environmental factors to affect risk of EA and BE. We aimed to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that may modify the associations of body mass index (BMI), smoking, and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), with risks of EA and BE. METHODS: We collected data on single BMI measurements, smoking status, and symptoms of GERD from 2284 patients with EA, 3104 patients with BE, and 2182 healthy individuals (controls) participating in the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium GWAS, the UK Barrett's Esophagus Gene Study, and the UK Stomach and Oesophageal Cancer Study. We analyzed 993,501 SNPs in DNA samples of all study subjects. We used standard case-control logistic regression to test for gene-environment interactions. RESULTS: For EA, rs13429103 at chromosome 2p25.1, near the RNF144A-LOC339788 gene, showed a borderline significant interaction with smoking status (P = 2.18×10-7). Ever smoking was associated with an almost 12-fold increase in risk of EA among individuals with rs13429103-AA genotype (odds ratio=11.82; 95% CI, 4.03-34.67). Three SNPs (rs12465911, rs2341926, rs13396805) at chromosome 2q23.3, near the RND3-RBM43 gene, interacted with GERD symptoms (P = 1.70×10-7, P = 1.83×10-7, and P = 3.58×10-7, respectively) to affect risk of EA. For BE, rs491603 at chromosome 1p34.3, near the EIF2C3 gene, and rs11631094 at chromosome 15q14, at the SLC12A6 gene, interacted with BMI (P = 4.44×10-7) and pack-years of smoking history (P = 2.82×10-7), respectively. CONCLUSION: The associations of BMI, smoking, and GERD symptoms with risks of EA and BE appear to vary with SNPs at chromosomes 1, 2, and 15. Validation of these suggestive interactions is warranted.

NSAID use and somatic exomic mutations in Barrett's esophagus.

BACKGROUND: Use of aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) has been shown to protect against tetraploidy, aneuploidy, and chromosomal alterations in the metaplastic condition Barrett's esophagus (BE) and to lower the incidence and mortality of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA). The esophagus is exposed to both intrinsic and extrinsic mutagens resulting from gastric reflux, chronic inflammation, and exposure to environmental carcinogens such as those found in cigarettes. Here we test the hypothesis that NSAID use inhibits accumulation of point mutations/indels during somatic genomic evolution in BE. METHODS: Whole exome sequences were generated from 82 purified epithelial biopsies and paired blood samples from a cross-sectional study of 41 NSAID users and 41 non-users matched by sex, age, smoking, and continuous time using or not using NSAIDs. RESULTS: NSAID use reduced overall frequency of point mutations across the spectrum of mutation types, lowered the frequency of mutations even when adjusted for both TP53 mutation and smoking status, and decreased the prevalence of clones with high variant allele frequency. Never smokers who consistently used NSAIDs had fewer point mutations in signature 17, which is commonly found in EA. NSAID users had, on average, a 50% reduction in functional gene mutations in nine cancer-associated pathways and also had less diversity in pathway mutational burden compared to non-users. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate NSAID use functions to limit overall mutations on which selection can act and supports a model in which specific mutant cell populations survive or expand better in the absence of NSAIDs.

Evolution of Barrett's esophagus through space and time at single-crypt and whole-biopsy levels.

The low risk of progression of Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal adenocarcinoma can lead to over-diagnosis and over-treatment of BE patients. This may be addressed through a better understanding of the dynamics surrounding BE malignant progression. Although genetic diversity has been characterized as a marker of malignant development, it is still unclear how BE arises and develops. Here we uncover the evolutionary dynamics of BE at crypt and biopsy levels in eight individuals, including four patients that experienced malignant progression. We assay eight individual crypts and the remaining epithelium by SNP array for each of 6-11 biopsies over 2 time points per patient (358 samples in total). Our results indicate that most Barrett's segments are clonal, with similar number and inferred rates of alterations observed for crypts and biopsies. Divergence correlates with geographical location, being higher near the gastro-esophageal junction. Relaxed clock analyses show that genomic instability precedes and is enhanced by genome doubling. These results shed light on the clinically relevant evolutionary dynamics of BE.

Determining Risk of Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Based on Epidemiologic Factors and Genetic Variants.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We developed comprehensive models to determine risk of Barrett's esophagus (BE) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) based on genetic and non-genetic factors. METHODS: We used pooled data from 3288 patients with BE, 2511 patients with EAC, and 2177 individuals without either (controls) from participants in the international Barrett's and EAC consortium as well as the United Kingdom's BE gene study and stomach and esophageal cancer study. We collected data on 23 genetic variants associated with risk for BE or EAC, and constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) for cases and controls by summing the risk allele counts for the variants weighted by their natural log-transformed effect estimates (odds ratios) extracted from genome-wide association studies. We also collected data on demographic and lifestyle factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) and symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). Risk models with various combinations of non-genetic factors and the PRS were compared for their accuracy in identifying patients with BE or EAC using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: Individuals in the highest quartile of risk, based on genetic factors (PRS), had a 2-fold higher risk of BE (odds ratio, 2.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.89-2.60) or EAC (odds ratio, 2.46; 95% confidence interval, 2.07-2.92) than individual in the lowest quartile of risk based on PRS. Risk models developed based on only demographic or lifestyle factors or GERD symptoms identified patients with BE or EAC with AUC values ranging from 0.637 to 0.667. Combining data on demographic or lifestyle factors with data on GERD symptoms identified patients with BE with an AUC of 0.793 and patients with EAC with an AUC of 0.745. Including PRSs with these data only minimally increased the AUC values for BE (to 0.799) and EAC (to 0.754). Including the PRSs in the model developed based on non-genetic factors resulted in a net reclassification improvement for BE of 3.0% and for EAC of 5.6%. CONCLUSIONS: We used data from 3 large databases of patients from studies of BE or EAC to develop a risk prediction model based on genetic, clinical, and demographic/lifestyle factors. We identified a PRS that increases discrimination and net reclassification of individuals with vs without BE and EAC. However, the absolute magnitude of improvement is not sufficient to justify its clinical use.

Quantification of Multiple Tumor Clones Using Gene Array and Sequencing Data.

Cancer development is driven by genomic alterations, including copy number aberrations. The detection of copy number aberrations in tumor cells is often complicated by possible contamination of normal stromal cells in tumor samples and intratumor heterogeneity, namely the presence of multiple clones of tumor cells. In order to correctly quantify copy number aberrations, it is critical to successfully de-convolute the complex structure of the genetic information from tumor samples. In this article, we propose a general Bayesian method for estimating copy number aberrations when there are normal cells and potentially more than one tumor clones. Our method provides posterior probabilities for the proportions of tumor clones and normal cells. We incorporate prior information on the distribution of the copy numbers to prioritize biologically more plausible solutions and alleviate possible identifiability issues that have been observed by many researchers. Our model is flexible and can work for both SNP array and next-generation sequencing data. We compare our method to existing ones and illustrate the advantage of our approach in multiple datasets.

Genomics, Endoscopy, and Control of Gastroesophageal Cancers: A Perspective.

In The Cancer Genome Atlas the goals were to define how to treat advanced cancers with targeted therapy. However, the challenges facing cancer interception for early detection and prevention include length bias in which current screening and surveillance approaches frequently miss rapidly progressing cancers that then present at advanced stages in the clinic with symptoms (underdiagnosis). In contrast, many early detection strategies detect benign conditions that may never progress to cancer during a lifetime, and the patient dies of unrelated causes (overdiagnosis). This challenge to cancer interception is believed to be due to the speed at which the neoplasm evolves, called length bias sampling; rapidly progressing cancers are missed by current early detection strategies. In contrast, slowly or non-progressing cancers or their precursors are selectively detected. This has led to the concept of cancer interception, which can be defined as active interception of a biological process that drives cancer development before the patient presents in the clinic with an advanced, symptomatic cancer. The solutions needed to advance strategies for cancer interception require assessing the rate at which the cancer evolves over time and space. This is an essential challenge that needs to be addressed by robust study designs including normal and non-progressing controls when known to be appropriate.

Candidate serum metabolite biomarkers for differentiating gastroesophageal reflux disease, Barrett's esophagus, and high-grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES: Incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA), an often fatal cancer, has increased sharply over recent decades. Several important risk factors (reflux, obesity, smoking) have been identified for EA and its precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE), but a key challenge remains identifying individuals at highest risk, since most with reflux do not develop BE, and most with BE do not progress to cancer. Metabolomics represents an emerging approach for identifying novel biomarkers associated with cancer development. METHODS: We used targeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) to profile 57 metabolites in 322 serum specimens derived from individuals with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), BE, high-grade dysplasia (HGD), or EA, drawn from two well-annotated epidemiologic parent studies. RESULTS: Multiple metabolites differed significantly (P<0.05) between BE versus GERD (n=9), and between HGD/EA versus BE (n=4). Several top candidates (FDR q≤0.15), including urate, homocysteine, and 3-nitrotyrosine, are linked to inflammatory processes, which may contribute to BE/EA pathogenesis. Multivariate modeling achieved moderate discrimination between HGD/EA and BE (AUC=0.75), with less pronounced separation for BE versus GERD (AUC=0.64). CONCLUSION: Serum metabolite differences can be detected between individuals with GERD versus BE, and between those with BE versus HGD/EA, and may help differentiate patients at different stages of progression to EA.

Mitigating cadmium accumulation in greenhouse lettuce production using biochar.

Greenhouse experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of rice straw biochar (RSB) on soil cadmium (Cd) availability and accumulation in lettuce. The RSB was applied either in bands or broadcast in the test site of four greenhouses with soil Cd concentrations ranging from 1.70-3.14 µg g-1. Biochar doses applied in bands were half of those broadcast. The Cd levels in the shoots of lettuce were observed to be reduced by up to 57% with increasing RSB application rate (0, 6, 12, 18 t ha-1). Following RSB application, shoot Cd concentrations of lettuce were reduced to below the Chinese threshold value set for food, and hazard quotients for Cd associated with vegetable consumption were reduced from 0.70-1.11 to 0.42-0.65. A decrease in soil bulk density (11%) and increases in water holding capacity (16%), available phosphorus (30%), available potassium (197%), and lettuce yield (15%) were observed after RSB application. Multiple linear regression analysis suggested that the soil extractable Cd level (but not biomass dilution) and soil bulk density, as influenced by RSB addition, were the dominant contributors to the shoot Cd levels in lettuce and lettuce yield, respectively. These results highlight the potential for RSB to mitigate the phytoaccumulation of Cd and thereby to reduce human exposure from vegetable consumption. Application of biochar in band, rather than broadcasting over the entire area, represents an opportunity to halve the biochar cost while retaining a good remediation effect.

Modest amendment of sewage sludge biochar to reduce the accumulation of cadmium into rice(Oryza sativa L.): A field study.

Much research has considered the influence of biochars on the availability and phytoaccumulation of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) from soil. However, the vast majority of these studies use, what are arguably, unrealistic and unpractical amounts of biochar (10, 50 and even up to 100 t/ha). To offer a more realistic insight into the influence of biochar on PTE partitioning and phytoaccumulation, a field study, using modest rates of biochar application (1.5, 3.0 t/ha), was undertaken. Specifically, the research investigated the influence of sewage sludge biochar (SSBC) on the accumulation of Cd into rice (Oryza sativa L.) grown in Cd contaminated (0.82 ± 0.07 mg/kg) paddy soil. Results indicated, Cd concentrations in rice grains to significantly (p < 0.05) decrease from 1.35 ± 0.09 mg/kg in the control to 0.82 ± 0.07 mg/kg and 0.80 ± 0.21 mg/kg in the 1.5 t/ha and 3.0 t/ha treatments, respectively. Accordingly, the hazardous quotient (HQ) indices for Cd, associated with rice grain consumption, were also reduced by ∼40%. SSBC amendment significantly (p < 0.05) increased grain yields from 1.90 ± 0.08 g/plant in the control to 2.17 ± 0.30 g/plant and 3.40 ± 0.27 g/plant in the 1.5 t/ha and 3.0 t/ha treatments, respectively. Thus, the amendment of SSBC to contaminated paddy soils, even at low application rates, could be an effective approach to mitigate Cd accumulation into rice plants, to improve rice grain yields, and to thereby improve food security and protect public health.

Surrogate Markers: Lessons from the Next Gen?

The article by Banerjee and colleagues published in this issue of the journal involving a randomized control prevention trial of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in Barrett esophagus reported a null outcome despite being well designed and executed. Possible reasons for this null outcome are discussed focusing on use of surrogate endpoints in the trial. The trial is especially topical because it comes at a time when there are calls for a Pre-Cancer Genome Atlas (PCGA) for "understanding the earliest molecular and cellular events associated with cancer initiation…" This commentary discusses current concepts in prevention research including branched evolution that leads to therapeutic resistance. Length bias sampling postulates underdiagnosis is due to rapidly progressing disease that is difficult to detect by screening because it progresses to cancer too rapidly and that overdiagnosis is the result of very slowly or nonprogressing disease that is easy to detect by screening because it persists for a lifetime and the patient dies of unrelated causes. Finally, it also explores study designs, including surrogate endpoints in Barrett esophagus trials, and opportunities and pitfalls for a PCGA in the context of high levels of over and underdiagnosis of Barrett esophagus as well as many other cancers and their precursors. Cancer Prev Res; 9(7); 512-7. ©2016 AACRSee related article by Banerjee, et al., p. 528.