Influencing factors and predictive model of postoperative infection in patients with primary hepatic carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors for postoperative infection in patients with primary hepatic carcinoma (PHC), build a nomogram prediction model, and verify the model to provide a better reference for disease prevention, diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: This single-center study included 555 patients who underwent hepatobiliary surgery in the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery of Tianjin Third Central Hospital from January 2014 to December 2021, and 32 clinical indicators were selected for statistical analysis. In this study, Lasso logistic regression was used to determine the risk factors for infection after liver cancer resection, establish a predictive model, and construct a visual nomogram. The consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used for internal validation, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to analyze the clinical applicability of the predictive model. The bootstrap method was used for intramodel validation, and the C-index was calculated to assess the model discrimination. RESULTS: Among the 555 patients, 279 patients met the inclusion criteria, of whom 48 had a postoperative infection, with an incidence rate of 17.2%. Body mass index (BMI) (P = 0.022), alpha-fetoprotein (P = 0.023), total bilirubin (P = 0.016), intraoperative blood loss (P < 0.001), and bile leakage (P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for infection after liver cancer surgery. The nomogram was constructed and verified to have good discriminative and predictive ability. DCA showed that the model had good clinical applicability. The C-index value verified internally by the bootstrap method results was 0.818. CONCLUSION: Postoperative infection in patients undergoing hepatectomy may be related to risk factors such as BMI, preoperative AFP level, TBIL level, intraoperative blood loss and bile leakage. The prediction model of the postoperative infection nomogram established in this study can better predict and estimate the risk of postoperative infection in patients undergoing hepatectomy.

Prognostic Nomogram Based on the Metastatic Lymph Node Ratio for T1-4N0-1M0 Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors After Surgery.

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of the metastatic lymph node ratio (LNR) in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) and to develop and validate nomograms to predict 5-, 7-, and 10-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates for pNETs after surgical resection. Methods: The demographics and clinicopathological information of T1-4N0-1M0 pNET patients between 2004 and 2018 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. X-tile software was used to determine the best cutoff value for the LNR. Patients were randomly divided into the training and the validation groups. A Cox regression model was used in the training group to obtain independent prognostic factors to develop nomograms for predicting OS and CSS. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the nomograms. Patients were divided into four groups according to the model scores, and their survival curves were generated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: A total of 806 patients were included in this study. The best cutoff value for the LNR was 0.16. The LNR was negatively correlated with both OS and CSS. Age, sex, marital status, primary site, grade, the LNR and radiotherapy were used to construct OS and CSS nomograms. In the training group, the C-index was 0.771 for OS and 0.778 for CSS. In the validation group, the C-index was 0.737 for OS and 0.727 for CSS. The calibration curves and AUC also indicated their good predictability. DCA demonstrated that the nomograms displayed better performance than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system (8th edition). Risk stratification indicated that patients with higher risk had a worse prognosis. Conclusions: The LNR is an independent negative prognostic factor for pNETs. The nomograms we built can accurately predict long-term survival for pNETs after surgery.

Establishment of risk prediction model of postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy: 2016 edition of definition and grading system of pancreatic fistula: a single center experience with 223 cases.

OBJECTIVE: To establish a risk prediction model for pancreatic fistula according to the pancreatic fistula standards of the 2016 edition. METHODS: Clinical data from 223 patients with PD admitted to Tianjin Third Central Hospital from January 2016 to December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into modeling (January 2016 to December 2018) and validation (January 2019 to December 2020) sets according to the time of admission. The risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and a risk prediction model for POPF was established in the modeling set. This score was tested in the validation set. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis showed that the main pancreatic duct index and CT value were independent risk factors according to the 2016 pancreatic fistula grading standard, based on which a risk prediction model for POPF was established. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.775 in the modeling set and 0.848 in the validation set. CONCLUSION: The main pancreatic duct index and CT value of the pancreas are closely related to the occurrence of pancreatic fistula after PD, and the established risk prediction model for pancreatic fistula has good prediction accuracy.

Survival analysis following microwave ablation or surgical resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma conforming to the Milan criteria.

The aim of the present study was to compare the efficacy of microwave ablation (MWA) and surgical resection (RES) for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) conforming to the Milan criteria and the associated short- and long-term survival rates. The baseline characteristics were obtained from 231 patients with HCC who met the Milan criteria. To compare the mortality rates between groups, survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. The factors associated with the survival rate were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models. A total of 115 patients underwent RES, and 116 were treated with MWA. No significant differences were observed in the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates and the 1-year DFS rate between the two groups. The 7- and 10-year OS rates and the 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-year DFS rates of the RES group were significantly higher compared with those in the MWA group (P=0.004, P=0.002, P=0.003 and P=0.002, respectively). In addition, no marked differences were observed in the OS and DFS rates between the two groups of patients with solitary HCC lesions ≤3 cm (P=0.066 and P=0.056) and in the OS of those with solitary lesions of 3-5 cm (P=0.133); however the DFS of patients with single 3-5 cm HCC lesions in the RES group was notably higher compared with the MWA group (P=0.027). The Cox proportional hazard model revealed that age, hepatitis B and C virus infection, tumor size, number, platelet count and the type of treatment intervention were risk factors affecting the survival and recurrence in patients with HCC. These results suggested that RES may provide superior survival benefits compared with MWA for patients with HCC who meet the Milan criteria.

The Diagnostic Value of Chemokine/Chemokine Receptor Pairs in Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Colorectal Liver Metastasis.

Chemokines and their receptors have been proposed to play important roles in tumor progression and metastasis. To investigate their roles in the progression of primary and metastatic malignant liver tumors and their prognosis, we compared expression profiles of CXCL12/CXCR4, CCL20/CCR6, and CCL21/CCR7 in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). Immunohistochemistry was used to analyze the expression levels of the chemokine/chemokine receptor pairs in 29 HCC and 11 CRLM specimens and adjacent non-cancerous tissues, and correlations with clinicopathological variables and overall survival were determined. CCL20/CCR6 expression was higher in HCC than in adjacent non-cancerous tissues. High CCR6 expression in HCC was negatively associated with 5-year survival rate and was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival of HCC patients, whereas differences were not observed between CRLM and adjacent tissues. Furthermore, significantly higher expression of CCL21/CCR7 was found in CRLM than in HCC. In summary, the CCL20/CCR6 axis was elevated in HCC but not in CRLM, whereas the CCL21/CCR7 axis was elevated in CRLM but not in HCC.

Comparison of microwave ablation and surgical resection for treatment of hepatocellular carcinomas conforming to Milan criteria.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: To compare the efficacy of microwave ablation (MWA) and surgical resection (RES) in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) conforming to Milan criteria. METHODS: Two hundred twenty-four patients met the inclusion criteria and were enrolled in the study. One hundred and seventeen patients received MWA, and 107 patients underwent RES. The primary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). RESULTS: The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 94%, 70%, 52% for the MWA group and 94%, 72%, 60% for the RES group (P = 0.513). The corresponding DFS rates for the two groups were 77%, 38%, 18% and 85%, 57%, 31% (P = 0.005). In subgroup analyses of patients with solitary HCC ≤ 3 cm, there were no significant differences in OS rates and DFS rates between the two groups (P = 0.577 and P = 0.140). For patients with solitary HCC 3 to 5 cm, there was no significant differences in OS rates between the two groups (P = 0.820), the DFS rates was significantly higher in the RES group than in the MWA group (P = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: MWA results in lower DFS rates than RES for HCC conforming to Milan criteria. However, the OS rates are comparable between the two therapies. For solitary HCC ≤ 3 cm, MWA is as effective as RES.