Mammographic density mediates the protective effect of early-life body size on breast cancer risk.

The unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk may be mediated via mammographic density (MD). Here, we investigate a complex relationship between adiposity in childhood and adulthood, puberty onset, MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)), and their effects on breast cancer. We use Mendelian randomization (MR) and multivariable MR to estimate the total and direct effects of adiposity and age at menarche on MD phenotypes. Childhood adiposity has a decreasing effect on DA, while adulthood adiposity increases NDA. Later menarche increases DA/PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect is attenuated. Next, we examine the effect of MD on breast cancer risk. DA/PD have a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD SNPs estimates are heterogeneous, and additional analyses suggest that different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, we evaluate the role of MD in the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer. Mediation MR analysis shows that 56% (95% CIs [32%-79%]) of this effect is mediated via DA. Our finding suggests that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, subsequently reducing breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is important for identifying potential intervention targets.

Cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use induce shared DNA methylation changes linked to carcinogenesis.

Tobacco use is a major modifiable risk factor for adverse health outcomes, including cancer, and elicits profound epigenetic changes thought to be associated with long-term cancer risk. While electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) have been advocated as harm reduction alternatives to tobacco products, recent studies have revealed potential detrimental effects, highlighting the urgent need for further research into the molecular and health impacts of e-cigarettes. Here, we applied computational deconvolution methods to dissect the cell- and tissue-specific epigenetic effects of tobacco or e-cigarette use on DNA methylation (DNAme) in over 3,500 buccal/saliva, cervical, or blood samples, spanning epithelial and immune cells at directly and indirectly exposed sites. The 535 identified smoking-related DNAme loci (CpGs) clustered into four functional groups, including detoxification or growth signaling, based on cell type and anatomical site. Loci hypermethylated in buccal epithelial cells of smokers associated with NOTCH1/RUNX3/growth factor receptor signaling also exhibited elevated methylation in cancer tissue and progressing lung carcinoma in situ lesions, and hypermethylation of these sites predicted lung cancer development in buccal samples collected from smokers up to 22 years prior to diagnosis, suggesting a potential role in driving carcinogenesis. Alarmingly, these CpGs were also hypermethylated in e-cigarette users with a limited smoking history. This study sheds light on the cell type-specific changes to the epigenetic landscape induced by smoking-related products.

Estimating the health impact of nicotine exposure by dissecting the effects of nicotine versus non-nicotine constituents of tobacco smoke: A multivariable Mendelian randomisation study.

The detrimental health effects of smoking are well-known, but the impact of regular nicotine use without exposure to the other constituents of tobacco is less clear. Given the increasing daily use of alternative nicotine delivery systems, such as e-cigarettes, it is increasingly important to understand and separate the effects of nicotine use from the impact of tobacco smoke exposure. Using a multivariable Mendelian randomisation framework, we explored the direct effects of nicotine compared with the non-nicotine constituents of tobacco smoke on health outcomes (lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], forced expiratory volume in one second [FEV-1], forced vital capacity [FVC], coronary heart disease [CHD], and heart rate [HR]). We used Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) summary statistics from Buchwald and colleagues, the GWAS and Sequencing Consortium of Alcohol and Nicotine, the International Lung Cancer Consortium, and UK Biobank. Increased nicotine metabolism increased the risk of COPD, lung cancer, and lung function in the univariable analysis. However, when accounting for smoking heaviness in the multivariable analysis, we found that increased nicotine metabolite ratio (indicative of decreased nicotine exposure per cigarette smoked) decreases heart rate (b = -0.30, 95% CI -0.50 to -0.10) and lung function (b = -33.33, 95% CI -41.76 to -24.90). There was no clear evidence of an effect on the remaining outcomes. The results suggest that these smoking-related outcomes are not due to nicotine exposure but are caused by the other components of tobacco smoke; however, there are multiple potential sources of bias, and the results should be triangulated using evidence from a range of methodologies.

Comprehensive evaluation of smoking exposures and their interactions on DNA methylation.

BACKGROUND: Smoking impacts DNA methylation, but data are lacking on smoking-related differential methylation by sex or dietary intake, recent smoking cessation (<1 year), persistence of differential methylation from in utero smoking exposure, and effects of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). METHODS: We meta-analysed data from up to 15,014 adults across 5 cohorts with DNA methylation measured in blood using Illumina's EPIC array for current smoking (2560 exposed), quit < 1 year (500 exposed), in utero (286 exposed), and ETS exposure (676 exposed). We also evaluated the interaction of current smoking with sex or diet (fibre, folate, and vitamin C). FINDINGS: Using false discovery rate (FDR < 0.05), 65,857 CpGs were differentially methylated in relation to current smoking, 4025 with recent quitting, 594 with in utero exposure, and 6 with ETS. Most current smoking CpGs attenuated within a year of quitting. CpGs related to in utero exposure in adults were enriched for those previously observed in newborns. Differential methylation by current smoking at 4-71 CpGs may be modified by sex or dietary intake. Nearly half (35-50%) of differentially methylated CpGs on the 450 K array were associated with blood gene expression. Current smoking and in utero smoking CpGs implicated 3049 and 1067 druggable targets, including chemotherapy drugs. INTERPRETATION: Many smoking-related methylation sites were identified with Illumina's EPIC array. Most signals revert to levels observed in never smokers within a year of cessation. Many in utero smoking CpGs persist into adulthood. Smoking-related druggable targets may provide insights into cancer treatment response and shared mechanisms across smoking-related diseases. FUNDING: Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, Norwegian Ministry of Health and Care Services and the Ministry of Education and Research, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates and the Scottish Funding Council, Medical Research Council UK and the Wellcome Trust.

Ultra-processed foods, adiposity and risk of head and neck cancer and oesophageal adenocarcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study: a mediation analysis.

PURPOSE: To investigate the role of adiposity in the associations between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and head and neck cancer (HNC) and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS: Our study included 450,111 EPIC participants. We used Cox regressions to investigate the associations between the consumption of UPFs and HNC and OAC risk. A mediation analysis was performed to assess the role of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) in these associations. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated accidental death as a negative control outcome. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 14.13 ± 3.98 years, 910 and 215 participants developed HNC and OAC, respectively. A 10% g/d higher consumption of UPFs was associated with an increased risk of HNC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.34) and OAC (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.05-1.47). WHR mediated 5% (95% CI 3-10%) of the association between the consumption of UPFs and HNC risk, while BMI and WHR, respectively, mediated 13% (95% CI 6-53%) and 15% (95% CI 8-72%) of the association between the consumption of UPFs and OAC risk. UPF consumption was positively associated with accidental death in the negative control analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We reaffirmed that higher UPF consumption is associated with greater risk of HNC and OAC in EPIC. The proportion mediated via adiposity was small. Further research is required to investigate other mechanisms that may be at play (if there is indeed any causal effect of UPF consumption on these cancers).

The mediating role of mammographic density in the protective effect of early-life adiposity on breast cancer risk: a multivariable Mendelian randomization study.

Observational studies suggest that mammographic density (MD) may have a role in the unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk. Here, we investigated a complex and interlinked relationship between puberty onset, adiposity, MD, and their effects on breast cancer using Mendelian randomization (MR). We estimated the effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity, and age at menarche on MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)) using MR and multivariable MR (MVMR), allowing us to disentangle their total and direct effects. Next, we examined the effect of MD on breast cancer risk, including risk of molecular subtypes, and accounting for genetic pleiotropy. Finally, we used MVMR to evaluate whether the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer was mediated by MD. Childhood adiposity had a strong inverse effect on mammographic DA, while adulthood adiposity increased NDA. Later menarche had an effect of increasing DA and PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect attenuated to the null. DA and PD had a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) estimates were extremely heterogeneous, and examination of the SNPs suggested different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, MR mediation analysis estimated that 56% (95% CIs [32% - 79%]) of the childhood adiposity effect on breast cancer risk was mediated via DA. In this work, we sought to disentangle the relationship between factors affecting MD and breast cancer. We showed that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, which subsequently leads to reduced breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is of great importance for identifying potential targets of intervention, since advocating weight gain in childhood would not be recommended.

Evaluating the effect of metabolic traits on oral and oropharyngeal cancer risk using Mendelian randomization.

A recent World Health Organization report states that at least 40% of all cancer cases may be preventable, with smoking, alcohol consumption, and obesity identified as three of the most important modifiable lifestyle factors. Given the significant decline in smoking rates, particularly within developed countries, other potentially modifiable risk factors for head and neck cancer warrant investigation. Obesity and related metabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hypertension have been associated with head and neck cancer risk in multiple observational studies. However, adiposity has also been correlated with smoking, with bias, confounding or reverse causality possibly explaining these findings. To overcome the challenges of observational studies, we conducted two-sample Mendelian randomization (inverse variance weighted [IVW] method) using genetic variants which were robustly associated with adiposity, glycaemic and blood pressure traits in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Outcome data were taken from the largest available GWAS of 6034 oral and oropharyngeal cases, with 6585 controls. We found limited evidence of a causal effect of genetically proxied body mass index (BMI; OR IVW = 0.89, 95% CI 0.72-1.09, p = 0.26 per 1 standard deviation in BMI [4.81kg/m2]) on oral and oropharyngeal cancer risk. Similarly, there was limited evidence for related traits including T2D and hypertension. Small effects cannot be excluded given the lack of power to detect them in currently available GWAS.

Sex steroid hormones and risk of breast cancer: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) has the highest cancer incidence and mortality in women worldwide. Observational epidemiological studies suggest a positive association between testosterone, estradiol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS) and other sex steroid hormones with postmenopausal BC. We used a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate this association. METHODS: Genetic instruments for nine sex steroid hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were obtained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of UK Biobank (total testosterone (TT) N: 230,454, bioavailable testosterone (BT) N: 188,507 and SHBG N: 189,473), The United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (DHEAS N: 9722), the LIFE-Adult and LIFE-Heart cohorts (estradiol N: 2607, androstenedione N: 711, aldosterone N: 685, progesterone N: 1259 and 17-hydroxyprogesterone N: 711) and the CORtisol NETwork (CORNET) consortium (cortisol N: 25,314). Outcome GWAS summary statistics were obtained from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) for overall BC risk (N: 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls) and subtype-specific analyses. RESULTS: We found that a standard deviation (SD) increase in TT, BT and estradiol increased the risk of overall BC (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.21, OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.07-1.33 and OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, respectively) and ER + BC (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.12-1.27, OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.11-1.40 and OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09, respectively). An SD increase in DHEAS also increased ER + BC risk (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03-1.16). Subtype-specific analyses showed similar associations with ER+ expressing subtypes: luminal A-like BC, luminal B-like BC and luminal B/HER2-negative-like BC. CONCLUSIONS: TT, BT, DHEAS and estradiol increase the risk of ER+ type BCs similar to observational studies. Understanding the role of sex steroid hormones in BC risk, particularly subtype-specific risks, highlights the potential importance of attempts to modify and/or monitor hormone levels in order to prevent BC.

Deciphering how early life adiposity influences breast cancer risk using Mendelian randomization.

Studies suggest that adiposity in childhood may reduce the risk of breast cancer in later life. The biological mechanism underlying this effect is unclear but is likely to be independent of body size in adulthood. Using a Mendelian randomization framework, we investigate 18 hypothesised mediators of the protective effect of childhood adiposity on later-life breast cancer, including hormonal, reproductive, physical, and glycaemic traits. Our results indicate that, while most of the hypothesised mediators are affected by childhood adiposity, only IGF-1 (OR: 1.08 [1.03: 1.15]), testosterone (total/free/bioavailable ~ OR: 1.12 [1.05: 1.20]), age at menopause (OR: 1.05 [1.03: 1.07]), and age at menarche (OR: 0.92 [0.86: 0.99], direct effect) influence breast cancer risk. However, multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis shows that the protective effect of childhood body size remains unaffected when accounting for these traits (ORs: 0.59-0.67). This suggests that none of the investigated potential mediators strongly contribute to the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk individually. It is plausible, however, that several related traits could collectively mediate the effect when analysed together, and this work provides a compelling foundation for investigating other mediating pathways in future studies.

Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between nutrition and cancer.

Dietary factors are assumed to play an important role in cancer risk, apparent in consensus recommendations for cancer prevention that promote nutritional changes. However, the evidence in this field has been generated predominantly through observational studies, which may result in biased effect estimates because of confounding, exposure misclassification, and reverse causality. With major geographical differences and rapid changes in cancer incidence over time, it is crucial to establish which of the observational associations reflect causality and to identify novel risk factors as these may be modified to prevent the onset of cancer and reduce its progression. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses the special properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference regarding potentially modifiable exposures and disease risk. MR can be implemented through instrumental variable (IV) analysis and, when robustly performed, is generally less prone to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error than conventional observational methods and has different sources of bias (discussed in detail below). It is increasingly used to facilitate causal inference in epidemiology and provides an opportunity to explore the effects of nutritional exposures on cancer incidence and progression in a cost-effective and timely manner. Here, we introduce the concept of MR and discuss its current application in understanding the impact of nutritional factors (e.g., any measure of diet and nutritional intake, circulating biomarkers, patterns, preference or behaviour) on cancer aetiology and, thus, opportunities for MR to contribute to the development of nutritional recommendations and policies for cancer prevention. We provide applied examples of MR studies examining the role of nutritional factors in cancer to illustrate how this method can be used to help prioritise or deprioritise the evaluation of specific nutritional factors as intervention targets in randomised controlled trials. We describe possible biases when using MR, and methodological developments aimed at investigating and potentially overcoming these biases when present. Lastly, we consider the use of MR in identifying causally relevant nutritional risk factors for various cancers in different regions across the world, given notable geographical differences in some cancers. We also discuss how MR results could be translated into further research and policy. We conclude that findings from MR studies, which corroborate those from other well-conducted studies with different and orthogonal biases, are poised to substantially improve our understanding of nutritional influences on cancer. For such corroboration, there is a requirement for an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to investigate risk factors for cancer incidence and progression.

Assessing the causal role of epigenetic clocks in the development of multiple cancers: a Mendelian randomization study.

Background: Epigenetic clocks have been associated with cancer risk in several observational studies. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether they play a causal role in cancer risk or if they act as a non-causal biomarker. Methods: We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study to examine the genetically predicted effects of epigenetic age acceleration as measured by HannumAge (nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)), Horvath Intrinsic Age (24 SNPs), PhenoAge (11 SNPs), and GrimAge (4 SNPs) on multiple cancers (i.e. breast, prostate, colorectal, ovarian and lung cancer). We obtained genome-wide association data for biological ageing from a meta-analysis (N = 34,710), and for cancer from the UK Biobank (N cases = 2671-13,879; N controls = 173,493-372,016), FinnGen (N cases = 719-8401; N controls = 74,685-174,006) and several international cancer genetic consortia (N cases = 11,348-122,977; N controls = 15,861-105,974). Main analyses were performed using multiplicative random effects inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR. Individual study estimates were pooled using fixed effect meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses included MR-Egger, weighted median, weighted mode and Causal Analysis using Summary Effect Estimates (CAUSE) methods, which are robust to some of the assumptions of the IVW approach. Results: Meta-analysed IVW MR findings suggested that higher GrimAge acceleration increased the risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.12 per year increase in GrimAge acceleration, 95% CI 1.04-1.20, p = 0.002). The direction of the genetically predicted effects was consistent across main and sensitivity MR analyses. Among subtypes, the genetically predicted effect of GrimAge acceleration was greater for colon cancer (IVW OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.09-1.21, p = 0.006), than rectal cancer (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI 0.97-1.13, p = 0.24). Results were less consistent for associations between other epigenetic clocks and cancers. Conclusions: GrimAge acceleration may increase the risk of colorectal cancer. Findings for other clocks and cancers were inconsistent. Further work is required to investigate the potential mechanisms underlying the results. Funding: FMB was supported by a Wellcome Trust PhD studentship in Molecular, Genetic and Lifecourse Epidemiology (224982/Z/22/Z which is part of grant 218495/Z/19/Z). KKT was supported by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme) and by the Hellenic Republic's Operational Programme 'Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship & Innovation' (OΠΣ 5047228). PH was supported by Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019). RMM was supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol and by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme). RMM is a National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator (NIHR202411). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. GDS and CLR were supported by the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1 and MC_UU_00011/5, respectively) and by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme). REM was supported by an Alzheimer's Society project grant (AS-PG-19b-010) and NIH grant (U01 AG-18-018, PI: Steve Horvath). RCR is a de Pass Vice Chancellor's Research Fellow at the University of Bristol.

Have you noticed that some people seem to get older faster than others? Scientists have previously found that a chemical tag on DNA known as DNA methylation can be used to predict an individual's chronological age. However, age predicted using DNA methylation (also known as biological or epigenetic age) does not always perfectly correspond to chronological age. Indeed, some people's biological age is higher than their years, while other people's is lower. When an individual's biological age is higher than their chronological age, they are said to be experiencing 'epigenetic age acceleration'. This type of accelerated ageing, which can be measured with 'epigenetic clocks' based on DNA methylation, has been associated with several adverse health outcomes, including cancer. This means that epigenetic clocks may improve our ability to predict cancer risk and detect cancer early. However, it is still unclear whether accelerated biological ageing causes cancer, or whether it simply correlates with the disease. Morales-Berstein et al. wanted to investigate whether epigenetic age acceleration, as measured by epigenetic clocks, plays a role in the development of several cancers. To do so, they used an approach known as Mendelian randomization. Using genetic variants as natural experiments, they studied the effect of different measures of epigenetic age acceleration on cancer risk. Their work focused on five types of cancer: breast, colorectal, prostate, ovarian and lung cancer. They used genetic association data from people of European ancestry to determine whether genetic variants that are strongly associated with accelerated ageing are also strongly associated with cancer. The results showed that one of the DNA methylation markers used as an estimate of biological ageing could be directly related to the risk of developing colorectal cancer. This work provides new insights into the relationship between markers of biological ageing and cancer. Similar relationships should also be studied in other groups of people and for other cancer sites. The results suggest that reversing biological ageing by altering DNA methylation could prevent or delay the development of colorectal cancer.

Do sex hormones confound or mediate the effect of chronotype on breast and prostate cancer? A Mendelian randomization study.

Morning-preference chronotype has been found to be protective against breast and prostate cancer. Sex hormones have been implicated in relation to chronotype and the development of both cancers. This study aimed to assess whether sex hormones confound or mediate the effect of chronotype on breast and prostate cancer using a Mendelian Randomization (MR) framework. Genetic variants associated with chronotype and sex hormones (total testosterone, bioavailable testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin, and oestradiol) (p<5×10-8) were obtained from published genome-wide association studies (n≤244,207 females and n≤205,527 males). These variants were used to investigate causal relationships with breast (nCases/nControls = 133,384/113,789) and prostate (nCases/nControls = 79,148/61,106) cancer using univariable, bidirectional and multivariable MR. In females, we found evidence for: I) Reduced risk of breast cancer per category increase in morning-preference (OR = 0.93, 95% CI:0. 88, 1.00); II) Increased risk of breast cancer per SD increase in bioavailable testosterone (OR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.19) and total testosterone (OR = 1.15, 95% CI:1.07, 1.23); III) Bidirectional effects between morning-preference and both bioavailable and total testosterone (e.g. mean SD difference in bioavailable testosterone = -0.08, 95% CI:-0.12, -0.05 per category increase in morning-preference vs difference in morning-preference category = -0.04, 95% CI: -0.08, 0.00 per SD increase in bioavailable testosterone). In males, we found evidence for: I) Reduced risk of prostate cancer per category increase in morning-preference (OR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.97) and II) Increased risk of prostate cancer per SD increase in bioavailable testosterone (OR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.37). No bidirectional effects were found between morning-preference and testosterone in males. While testosterone levels were causally implicated with both chronotype and cancer, there was inconsistent evidence for testosterone as a mediator of the relationship. The protective effect of morning-preference on both breast and prostate cancer is clinically interesting, although it may be difficult to effectively modify chronotype. Further studies are needed to investigate other potentially modifiable intermediates.

Investigating the effect of sexual behaviour on oropharyngeal cancer risk: a methodological assessment of Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Human papilloma virus infection is known to influence oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) risk, likely via sexual transmission. However, sexual behaviour has been correlated with other risk factors including smoking and alcohol, meaning independent effects are difficult to establish. We aimed to evaluate the causal effect of sexual behaviour on the risk of OPC using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: Genetic variants robustly associated with age at first sex (AFS) and the number of sexual partners (NSP) were used to perform both univariable and multivariable MR analyses with summary data on 2641 OPC cases and 6585 controls, obtained from the largest available genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Given the potential for genetic pleiotropy, we performed a number of sensitivity analyses: (i) MR methods to account for horizontal pleiotropy, (ii) MR of sexual behaviours on positive (cervical cancer and seropositivity for Chlamydia trachomatis) and negative control outcomes (lung and oral cancer), (iii) Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates (CAUSE), to account for correlated and uncorrelated horizontal pleiotropic effects, (iv) multivariable MR analysis to account for the effects of smoking, alcohol, risk tolerance and educational attainment. RESULTS: In univariable MR, we found evidence supportive of an effect of both later AFS (IVW OR = 0.4, 95%CI (0.3, 0.7), per standard deviation (SD), p = < 0.001) and increasing NSP (IVW OR = 2.2, 95%CI (1.3, 3.8) per SD, p = < 0.001) on OPC risk. These effects were largely robust to sensitivity analyses accounting for horizontal pleiotropy. However, negative control analysis suggested potential violation of the core MR assumptions and subsequent CAUSE analysis implicated pleiotropy of the genetic instruments used to proxy sexual behaviours. Finally, there was some attenuation of the univariable MR results in the multivariable models (AFS IVW OR = 0.7, 95%CI (0.4, 1.2), p = 0.21; NSP IVW OR = 0.9, 95%CI (0.5 1.7), p = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Despite using genetic variants strongly related sexual behaviour traits in large-scale GWAS, we found evidence for correlated pleiotropy. This emphasizes a need for multivariable approaches and the triangulation of evidence when performing MR of complex behavioural traits.

Epigenetic biomarkers of ageing are predictive of mortality risk in a longitudinal clinical cohort of individuals diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic clocks are biomarkers of ageing derived from DNA methylation levels at a subset of CpG sites. The difference between age predicted by these clocks and chronological age, termed "epigenetic age acceleration", has been shown to predict age-related disease and mortality. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of epigenetic age acceleration and a DNA methylation-based mortality risk score with all-cause mortality in a prospective clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000. We investigated two markers of intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAAHorvath and IEAAHannum), one marker of extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA), one optimised to predict physiological dysregulation (AgeAccelPheno), one optimised to predict lifespan (AgeAccelGrim) and a DNA methylation-based predictor of mortality (ZhangScore). Cox regression models were first used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of epigenetic age acceleration with all-cause mortality in people with oropharyngeal cancer (n = 408; 105 deaths). The added prognostic value of epigenetic markers compared to a clinical model including age, sex, TNM stage and HPV status was then evaluated. RESULTS: IEAAHannum and AgeAccelGrim were associated with mortality risk after adjustment for clinical and lifestyle factors (HRs per standard deviation [SD] increase in age acceleration = 1.30 [95% CI 1.07, 1.57; p = 0.007] and 1.40 [95% CI 1.06, 1.83; p = 0.016], respectively). There was weak evidence that the addition of AgeAccelGrim to the clinical model improved 3-year mortality prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.80 vs. 0.77; p value for difference = 0.069). CONCLUSION: In the setting of a large, clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer, our study demonstrates the potential of epigenetic markers of ageing to enhance survival prediction in people with oropharyngeal cancer, beyond established prognostic factors. Our findings have potential uses in both clinical and non-clinical contexts: to aid treatment planning and improve patient stratification.

Salicylic Acid and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study.

Salicylic acid (SA) has observationally been shown to decrease colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid, that rapidly deacetylates to SA) is an effective primary and secondary chemopreventive agent. Through a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach, we aimed to address whether levels of SA affected CRC risk, stratifying by aspirin use. A two-sample MR analysis was performed using GWAS summary statistics of SA (INTERVAL and EPIC-Norfolk, N = 14,149) and CRC (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO and UK Biobank, 55,168 cases and 65,160 controls). The DACHS study (4410 cases and 3441 controls) was used for replication and stratification of aspirin-use. SNPs proxying SA were selected via three methods: (1) functional SNPs that influence the activity of aspirin-metabolising enzymes; (2) pathway SNPs present in enzymes' coding regions; and (3) genome-wide significant SNPs. We found no association between functional SNPs and SA levels. The pathway and genome-wide SNPs showed no association between SA and CRC risk (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.84-1.27 and OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.86-1.34, respectively). Results remained unchanged upon aspirin use stratification. We found little evidence to suggest that an SD increase in genetically predicted SA protects against CRC risk in the general population and upon stratification by aspirin use.

Investigating the DNA methylation profile of e-cigarette use.

BACKGROUND: Little evidence exists on the health effects of e-cigarette use. DNA methylation may serve as a biomarker for exposure and could be predictive of future health risk. We aimed to investigate the DNA methylation profile of e-cigarette use. RESULTS: Among 117 smokers, 117 non-smokers and 116 non-smoking vapers, we evaluated associations between e-cigarette use and epigenome-wide methylation from saliva. DNA methylation at 7 cytosine-phosphate-guanine sites (CpGs) was associated with e-cigarette use at p < 1 × 10-5 and none at p < 5.91 × 10-8. 13 CpGs were associated with smoking at p < 1 × 10-5 and one at p < 5.91 × 10-8. CpGs associated with e-cigarette use were largely distinct from those associated with smoking. There was strong enrichment of known smoking-related CpGs in the smokers but not the vapers. We also tested associations between e-cigarette use and methylation scores known to predict smoking and biological ageing. Methylation scores for smoking and biological ageing were similar between vapers and non-smokers. Higher levels of all smoking scores and a biological ageing score (GrimAge) were observed in smokers. A methylation score for e-cigarette use showed poor prediction internally (AUC 0.55, 0.41-0.69) and externally (AUC 0.57, 0.36-0.74) compared with a smoking score (AUCs 0.80) and was less able to discriminate lung squamous cell carcinoma from adjacent normal tissue (AUC 0.64, 0.52-0.76 versus AUC 0.73, 0.61-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: The DNA methylation profile for e-cigarette use is largely distinct from that of cigarette smoking, did not replicate in independent samples, and was unable to discriminate lung cancer from normal tissue. The extent to which methylation related to long-term e-cigarette use translates into chronic effects requires further investigation.

Using genetic variants to evaluate the causal effect of cholesterol lowering on head and neck cancer risk: A Mendelian randomization study.

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), which includes cancers of the oral cavity and oropharynx, is a cause of substantial global morbidity and mortality. Strategies to reduce disease burden include discovery of novel therapies and repurposing of existing drugs. Statins are commonly prescribed for lowering circulating cholesterol by inhibiting HMG-CoA reductase (HMGCR). Results from some observational studies suggest that statin use may reduce HNSCC risk. We appraised the relationship of genetically-proxied cholesterol-lowering drug targets and other circulating lipid traits with oral (OC) and oropharyngeal (OPC) cancer risk using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR). For the primary analysis, germline genetic variants in HMGCR, NPC1L1, CETP, PCSK9 and LDLR were used to proxy the effect of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering therapies. In secondary analyses, variants were used to proxy circulating levels of other lipid traits in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of 188,578 individuals. Both primary and secondary analyses aimed to estimate the downstream causal effect of cholesterol lowering therapies on OC and OPC risk. The second sample for MR was taken from a GWAS of 6,034 OC and OPC cases and 6,585 controls (GAME-ON). Analyses were replicated in UK Biobank, using 839 OC and OPC cases and 372,016 controls and the results of the GAME-ON and UK Biobank analyses combined in a fixed-effects meta-analysis. We found limited evidence of a causal effect of genetically-proxied LDL-C lowering using HMGCR, NPC1L1, CETP or other circulating lipid traits on either OC or OPC risk. Genetically-proxied PCSK9 inhibition equivalent to a 1 mmol/L (38.7 mg/dL) reduction in LDL-C was associated with an increased risk of OC and OPC combined (OR 1.8 95%CI 1.2, 2.8, p = 9.31 x10-05), with good concordance between GAME-ON and UK Biobank (I2 = 22%). Effects for PCSK9 appeared stronger in relation to OPC (OR 2.6 95%CI 1.4, 4.9) than OC (OR 1.4 95%CI 0.8, 2.4). LDLR variants, resulting in genetically-proxied reduction in LDL-C equivalent to a 1 mmol/L (38.7 mg/dL), reduced the risk of OC and OPC combined (OR 0.7, 95%CI 0.5, 1.0, p = 0.006). A series of pleiotropy-robust and outlier detection methods showed that pleiotropy did not bias our findings. We found limited evidence for a role of cholesterol-lowering in OC and OPC risk, suggesting previous observational results may have been confounded. There was some evidence that genetically-proxied inhibition of PCSK9 increased risk, while lipid-lowering variants in LDLR, reduced risk of combined OC and OPC. This result suggests that the mechanisms of action of PCSK9 on OC and OPC risk may be independent of its cholesterol lowering effects; however, this was not supported uniformly across all sensitivity analyses and further replication of this finding is required.

Assessing the role of genome-wide DNA methylation between smoking and risk of lung cancer using repeated measurements: the HUNT study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear if smoking-related DNA methylation represents a causal pathway between smoking and risk of lung cancer. We sought to identify novel smoking-related DNA methylation sites in blood, with repeated measurements, and to appraise the putative role of DNA methylation in the pathway between smoking and lung cancer development. METHODS: We derived a nested case-control study from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), including 140 incident patients who developed lung cancer during 2009-13 and 140 controls. We profiled 850 K DNA methylation sites (Illumina Infinium EPIC array) in DNA extracted from blood that was collected in HUNT2 (1995-97) and HUNT3 (2006-08) for the same individuals. Epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) were performed for a detailed smoking phenotype and for lung cancer. Two-step Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed to assess the potential causal effect of smoking on DNA methylation as well as of DNA methylation (13 sites as putative mediators) on risk of lung cancer. RESULTS: The EWAS for smoking in HUNT2 identified associations at 76 DNA methylation sites (P < 5 × 10-8), including 16 novel sites. Smoking was associated with DNA hypomethylation in a dose-response relationship among 83% of the 76 sites, which was confirmed by analyses using repeated measurements from blood that was collected at 11 years apart for the same individuals. Two-step MR analyses showed evidence for a causal effect of smoking on DNA methylation but no evidence for a causal link between DNA methylation and the risk of lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: DNA methylation modifications in blood did not seem to represent a causal pathway linking smoking and the lung cancer risk.

Selection into shift work is influenced by educational attainment and body mass index: a Mendelian randomization study in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Shift work is associated with increased cardiometabolic disease risk. This observation may be partly explained by cardiometabolic risk factors having a role in the selection of individuals into or out of shift work. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses in the UK Biobank (UKB) to test this hypothesis. METHODS: We used genetic risk scores (GRS) to proxy nine cardiometabolic risk factors and diseases (including educational attainment, body mass index (BMI), smoking, and alcohol consumption), and tested associations of each GRS with self-reported frequency of current shift work among employed UKB participants of European ancestry (n = 190 573). We used summary-level MR sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of the identified effects, and we tested whether effects were mediated through sleep timing preference. RESULTS: Genetically instrumented liability to lower educational attainment (odds ratio (OR) per 3.6 fewer years in educational attainment = 2.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.22-2.59, P = 4.84 × 10-20) and higher body mass index (OR per 4.7 kg/m2 higher BMI = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.14-1.47, P = 5.85 × 10-5) increased odds of reporting participation in frequent shift work. Results were unchanged in sensitivity analyses allowing for different assumptions regarding horizontal pleiotropy. No selection effects were evident for the remaining exposures, nor for any exposures on selection out of shift work. Sleep timing preference did not mediate the effects of BMI and educational attainment on selection into shift work. CONCLUSIONS: Liability to lower educational attainment and higher BMI may influence selection into shift work. This phenomenon may bias epidemiological studies of shift work that are performed in the UKB.