Predicting Periprocedural Complications in Chronic Total Occlusion Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: The PROGRESS-CTO Complication Scores.

BACKGROUND: Chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is associated with increased risk of periprocedural complications. Estimating the risk of complications facilitates risk-benefit assessment and procedural planning. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to develop risk scores for in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), mortality, pericardiocentesis, and acute myocardial infarction (MI) in patients undergoing CTO PCI. METHODS: The study analyzed the PROGRESS-CTO (Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention; NCT02061436) and created risk scores for MACE, mortality, pericardiocentesis, and acute MI. Logistic regression prediction modeling was used to identify independently associated variables, and models were internally validated with bootstrapping. RESULTS: The incidence of periprocedural complications among 10,480 CTO PCIs was as follows: MACE 215 (2.05%), mortality 47 (0.45%), pericardiocentesis 83 (1.08%), and acute MI 66 (0.63%). The final model for MACE included ≥65 years of age (1 point), moderate-severe calcification (1 point), blunt stump (1 point), antegrade dissection and re-entry (ADR) (1 point), female (2 points), and retrograde (2 points); the final model for mortality included ≥65 years of age (1 point), left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45% (1 point), moderate-severe calcification (1 point), ADR (1 point), and retrograde (1 point); the final model for pericardiocentesis included ≥65 years of age (1 point), female (1 point), moderate-severe calcification (1 point), ADR (1 point), and retrograde (2 points); the final model for acute MI included prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery (1 point), atrial fibrillation (1 point), and blunt stump (1 point). The C-statistics of the models were 0.74, 0.80, 0.78, 0.72 for MACE, mortality, pericardiocentesis, and acute MI, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The PROGRESS-CTO complication risk scores can facilitate estimation of the periprocedural complication risk in patients undergoing CTO PCI.

High numbers of false-positive stress tests are the result of inappropriate testing.

Patients who underwent coronary angiography preceded by stress testing during the period January 2009 through March 2012 were evaluated using the CathPCI database. The predictive accuracy of stress echocardiography (SE) and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) were determined and used to back calculate the pretest probability of the population being tested. In total, 2662 catheterizations were performed, 866 (33%) of which were preceded by stress imaging. Overall, the positive predictive values of SE and SPECT did not differ significantly (61% and 66%, P = .15) and were much lower in certain subgroups. The overall pretest probabilities of patients without a documented history of coronary artery disease undergoing SE and SPECT in the study population were estimated to be 18% and 27%, respectively. This study shows that stress testing is performed too often in low-risk patients in whom it is unlikely to improve clinical decision making.