Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2021) in 12 Countries of the C-MOR Consortium.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated cause-specific mortality rates in 12 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. METHODS: We collected weekly cause-specific mortality data from respiratory disease, pneumonia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer from national vital statistic databases. We calculated excess mortality for respiratory disease (excluding COVID-19 codes), pneumonia, and CVD in 2020 and 2021 by comparing observed weekly against expected mortality based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonal trends. We used multilevel regression models to investigate the association between country-level pandemic-related variables and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: Significant reductions in cumulative mortality from respiratory disease and pneumonia were observed in 2020 and/or 2021, except for Georgia, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, which exhibited excess mortality for one or both causes. Australia, Austria, Cyprus, Georgia, and Northern Ireland experienced excess cumulative CVD mortality in 2020 and/or 2021. Australia, Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, Georgia, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Slovenia, experienced increased crude cumulative cancer mortality during 2020 and/or 2021 compared to previous years. Among pandemic-related variables, reported COVID-19 incidence was negatively associated with increased cancer mortality, excess respiratory, (2020) and pneumonia (2021) mortality, and positively associated with respiratory and CVD mortality (2021). Stringency of control measures were negatively associated with excess respiratory disease, CVD, and increased cancer mortality (2021). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality from CVD, and notable reductions in respiratory disease and pneumonia in both years across most countries investigated. Our study also highlights the beneficial impact of stringent control measures in mitigating excess mortality from most causes in 2021.

Time to include burden of surgical injuries after disasters in the Global Surgery agenda? An assessment of DALYs and averted burden by surgery after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

Unlike other disasters, injury rates after earthquakes are still on the rise at a global scale. With an estimated one million people injured by earthquakes in the last decade, the burden of injury is considerable. Importantly, the surgical procedures carried out by healthcare facilities are capable to avert part of this burden. Yet both burdens remain unquantified using understandable metrics. We explored in this analysis a method to calculate them using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), an internationally accepted measure expressing years of healthy life lost due to a health condition. We used data from a large standardised hospital database of earthquake-related injuries with complete information on International Classification of Diseases for injury and surgical procedures, sex and age information. DALYs and averted DALYs were calculated by injury types and per patient using disability weights available in the literature and expert opinion. We also suggested how DALYs might be further converted into an economic measure using approaches in the published literature. We estimated 10 397 DALYs as the earthquake surgical-injury burden produced in 1861 hospitalised patients treated in a single hospital (on average, 5.6 DALYs per patient). Our study also assessed that 4379 DALYs, or 2.4 DALYs per patient, were averted by surgery (42%). In economic terms, DALY losses amounted to US$36.1 million, from which US$15.2 million were averted by surgery in our case study. We urge to systematically estimate these impacts through improvements in the routine reporting of injury diagnoses and surgical procedures by health systems, potentially improving prevention policies and resource allocation to healthcare facilities.

Hospital stay as a proxy indicator for severe injury in earthquakes: a retrospective analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Earthquakes are the most violent type of natural disasters and injuries are the dominant medical problem in the early phases after earthquakes. However, likely because of poor data availability, high-quality research on injuries after earthquakes is lacking. Length of hospital stay (LOS) has been validated as a proxy indicator for injury severity in high-income settings and could potentially be used in retrospective research of injuries after earthquakes. In this study, we assessed LOS as an adequate proxy indicator for severe injury in trauma survivors of an earthquake. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted using a database of 1,878 injured patients from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Our primary outcome was severe injury, defined as a composite measure of serious injury or resource use. Secondary outcomes were serious injury and resource use, analysed separately. Non-parametric receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) analysis was used to test the discriminatory accuracy of LOS when used to identify severe injury. An 0.7