The fate of indeterminate liver lesions: What proportion are precursors of hepatocellular carcinoma?

BACKGROUND: The natural history and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) arising from indeterminate liver lesions are not well described. We aimed to define the incidence of HCC in a cohort of patients undergoing surveillance by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and estimate any associations with incident HCC. METHODS: We performed a retrospective follow-up study, identifying MRI scans in which indeterminate lesions had been reported between January 2006 and January 2017. Subsequent MRI scan reports were reviewed for incident HCC arising from indeterminate lesions, data were extracted from electronic patient records and survival analysis performed to estimate associations with baseline factors. RESULTS: One hundred and nine patients with indeterminate lesions on MRI were identified. HCC developed in 19 (17%) patients over mean follow up of 4.6 years. Univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis found incident HCC to be significantly associated with baseline low platelet count (hazard ratio (HR) = 7.3 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 2.1-24.9), high serum alpha-fetoprotein level (HR = 2.7 (95% CI 1.0-7.1)) and alcohol consumption above fourteen units weekly (HR = 3.1 (95% CI 1.1-8.7)). Multivariate analysis, however, found that only low platelet count was independently associated with HCC (HR = 5.5 (95% CI 0.6-5.1)). CONCLUSIONS: HCC arises in approximately one fifth of indeterminate liver lesions over 4.6 years and is associated with a low platelet count at the time of first diagnosis of an indeterminate lesion. Incidence of HCC was more common in people with viral hepatitis and in those consuming > 14 units of alcohol per week. Our data may be used to support a strategy of enhanced surveillance in patients with indeterminate lesions.

Relationship of Enhanced Liver Fibrosis Score with Pediatric Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Histology and Response to Vitamin E or Metformin.

OBJECTIVES: To study the diagnostic performance of the enhanced liver fibrosis score (ELF) for detecting different stages of fibrosis and its usefulness in detecting histologic response to vitamin E or metformin in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease who participated in the Vitamin E or Metformin for the Treatment Of NAFLD In Children (TONIC) trial. STUDY DESIGN: ELF was measured at baseline and weeks 24, 48, and 96 on sera from 166 TONIC participants. Associations between ELF with baseline and end of trial (EOT) fibrosis stages and other histologic features were assessed using χ2 tests and logistic regression models. RESULTS: ELF was significantly associated with severity of fibrosis at baseline and EOT. ELF areas under the curve for discriminating patients with clinically significant and advanced fibrosis were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.60-0.80) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.69-0.89), respectively. A 1-unit decrease in ELF at EOT was associated with overall histologic improvement (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.11-3.14; P = .02), resolution of steatohepatitis (OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.09-3.25; P = .02), improvement in steatosis grade (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.06-2.82; P = .03), and hepatocellular ballooning (OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.06-3.00; P = .03), but not with improvement in fibrosis stage (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.78-2.03; P = .34). CONCLUSIONS: ELF was associated with fibrosis stage in children who participated in TONIC. Although not associated with improvement in fibrosis, a decrease in ELF at EOT was associated with Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis resolution and improvement in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease histology. ELF may be a useful noninvasive test to monitor treatment response in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Circulating Macrophage Activation Markers Predict Transplant-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a progressive liver disease characterized by bile duct inflammation and fibrosis. The role of macrophages in PSC development and progression is less studied. Macrophage activation markers soluble (s)CD163 and mannose receptor (sMR) are associated with disease severity and outcome in other liver diseases, but not previously investigated in PSC. We evaluated sCD163 and sMR regarding disease severity and prognosis in patients with PSC. METHODS: We investigated 2 independent PSC cohorts from Oslo (n = 138) and Helsinki (n = 159) and analyzed blood sCD163 and sMR levels. The Mayo score, Enhanced Liver Fibrosis Test, and Amsterdam-Oxford model were assessed for comparison. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range) sCD163 was 3.32 (2.27-5.60) and 1.96 (1.47-2.70) mg/L in the Oslo and Helsinki cohorts, respectively, reflecting differences in disease severity between cohorts. Median sMR was similar in both cohorts, 0.28 (0.22-0.44) and 0.28 mg/L (0.20-0.36), respectively. In both cohorts, sCD163 and sMR levels raised with increasing disease severity (liver enzymes, Mayo score, and enhanced liver fibrosis test). Patients with high baseline levels of sCD163 had shorter transplant-free survival than patients with low baseline levels. Furthermore, sCD163 was associated with transplant-free survival in univariate cox-regression analyses. Both sCD163 and sMR performed better in the Oslo cohort of more severely diseased patients than those in the Helsinki cohort of more mildly diseased patients. DISCUSSION: Macrophage activation markers are elevated according to disease severity suggesting an important role of macrophages in PSC. Furthermore, sCD163 was identified as a prognostic marker and predictor of transplant-free survival in PSC (see Visual Abstract, Supplementary Digital Content 4, http://links.lww.com/CTG/A516).

Therapeutic Potential of TLR8 Agonist GS-9688 (Selgantolimod) in Chronic Hepatitis B: Remodeling of Antiviral and Regulatory Mediators.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: GS-9688 (selgantolimod) is a toll-like receptor 8 agonist in clinical development for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Antiviral activity of GS-9688 has previously been evaluated in vitro in HBV-infected hepatocytes and in vivo in the woodchuck model of CHB. Here we evaluated the potential of GS-9688 to boost responses contributing to viral control and to modulate regulatory mediators. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We characterized the effect of GS-9688 on immune cell subsets in vitro in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of healthy controls and patients with CHB. GS-9688 activated dendritic cells and mononuclear phagocytes to produce IL-12 and other immunomodulatory mediators, inducing a comparable cytokine profile in healthy controls and patients with CHB. GS-9688 increased the frequency of activated natural killer (NK) cells, mucosal-associated invariant T cells, CD4+ follicular helper T cells, and, in about 50% of patients, HBV-specific CD8+ T cells expressing interferon-γ. Moreover, in vitro stimulation with GS-9688 induced NK-cell expression of interferon-γ and TNF-α, and promoted hepatocyte lysis. We also assessed whether GS-9688 inhibited immunosuppressive cell subsets that might enhance antiviral efficacy. Stimulation with GS-9688 reduced the frequency of CD4+ regulatory T cells and monocytic myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs). Residual MDSCs expressed higher levels of negative immune regulators, galectin-9 and programmed death-ligand 1. Conversely, GS-9688 induced an expansion of immunoregulatory TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand+ NK cells and degranulation of arginase-I+ polymorphonuclear MDSCs. CONCLUSIONS: GS-9688 induces cytokines in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells that are able to activate antiviral effector function by multiple immune mediators (HBV-specific CD8+ T cells, CD4+ follicular helper T cells, NK cells, and mucosal-associated invariant T cells). Although reducing the frequency of some immunoregulatory subsets, it enhances the immunosuppressive potential of others, highlighting potential biomarkers and immunotherapeutic targets to optimize the antiviral efficacy of GS-9688.

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test is associated with liver-related outcomes in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). The aim of this study was to estimate the association between the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test and liver-related events (LRE) and its performance in predicting LRE in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case-control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). METHODS: In a cohort of 95,126 we performed a case-control study measuring ELF in blinded samples from 173 participants with self-reported high alcohol use and / or BMI ≥25 kg/m2 comprising all 58 cases who developed LRE and 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8.5 years. RESULTS: Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 10.51 hazard ratios (HR) for LRE were 4.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.37-10.03) (unadjusted model) and 4.62 (95% CI 2.12-10.08) (adjusted for deprivation and self-reported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes). At a threshold of 9.8 HR for LRE were 2.21 (95% CI 1.22-3.97) (unadjusted model) and 2.18 (95% CI 1.19-4.01) (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating time-dependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 10.51 were 1.94 (95% CI 1.10-3.39) (unadjusted) and 2.05 (95% CI 1.16-3.64) (adjusted) and at a threshold of 9.8 HRs were 1.85 (95% CI 1.09-3.15) (unadjusted) and 1.80 (95% CI 1.04-3.13) (adjusted). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for recruitment ELF predicting LRE was 0.58 (95% CI 0.49-0.68), and for second subsequent ELF 0.61 (95% CI 0.52-0.71). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the association between ELF and CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the potential of ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is nested in UKCTOCS. UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

Inflammation and fibrosis in chronic liver diseases including non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and hepatitis C.

At present chronic liver disease (CLD), the third commonest cause of premature death in the United Kingdom is detected late, when interventions are ineffective, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Injury to the liver, the largest solid organ in the body, leads to a cascade of inflammatory events. Chronic inflammation leads to the activation of hepatic stellate cells that undergo trans-differentiation to become myofibroblasts, the main extra-cellular matrix producing cells in the liver; over time increased extra-cellular matrix production results in the formation of liver fibrosis. Although fibrogenesis may be viewed as having evolved as a "wound healing" process that preserves tissue integrity, sustained chronic fibrosis can become pathogenic culminating in CLD, cirrhosis and its associated complications. As the reference standard for detecting liver fibrosis, liver biopsy, is invasive and has an associated morbidity, the diagnostic assessment of CLD by non-invasive testing is attractive. Accordingly, in this review the mechanisms by which liver inflammation and fibrosis develop in chronic liver diseases are explored to identify appropriate and meaningful diagnostic targets for clinical practice. Due to differing disease prevalence and treatment efficacy, disease specific diagnostic targets are required to optimally manage individual CLDs such as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic hepatitis C infection. To facilitate this, a review of the pathogenesis of both conditions is also conducted. Finally, the evidence for hepatic fibrosis regression and the mechanisms by which this occurs are discussed, including the current use of antifibrotic therapy.

Human Liver Memory CD8+ T Cells Use Autophagy for Tissue Residence.

Tissue-resident memory T cells have critical roles in long-term pathogen and tumor immune surveillance in the liver. We investigate the role of autophagy in equipping human memory T cells to acquire tissue residence and maintain functionality in the immunosuppressive liver environment. By performing ex vivo staining of freshly isolated cells from human liver tissue, we find that an increased rate of basal autophagy is a hallmark of intrahepatic lymphocytes, particularly liver-resident CD8+ T cells. CD8+ T cells with increased autophagy are those best able to proliferate and mediate cytotoxicity and cytokine production. Conversely, blocking autophagy induction results in the accumulation of depolarized mitochondria, a feature of exhausted T cells. Primary hepatic stellate cells or the prototypic hepatic cytokine interleukin (IL)-15 induce autophagy in parallel with tissue-homing/retention markers. Inhibition of T cell autophagy abrogates tissue-residence programming. Thus, upregulation of autophagy adapts CD8+ T cells to combat mitochondrial depolarization, optimize functionality, and acquire tissue residence.

The association between hepatocellular carcinoma and direct-acting anti-viral treatment in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting anti-viral therapy (DAA) has transformed hepatitis C virus (HCV) care, particularly in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, their impact on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear. AIM: To use a national registry of patients with advanced liver disease to explore the relationship between DAA therapy and HCC. METHODS: All patients with de novo HCC post DAA therapy were frequency matched with patients who did not develop HCC. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were obtained. Cross-sectional imaging and multidisciplinary team reports were reviewed for dates of HCC diagnosis and HCC progression. Patients were categorised by treatment outcome and time of HCC development. Data were examined by multivariable analysis and Kaplan-Meier estimation. RESULTS: Eighty patients with HCC were compared with 165 patients without HCC, treated between June 2014 and September 2015. Mean follow-up from start of DAA therapy was 32.4 months. Twenty-eight patients were diagnosed with early HCC (within 6 months of therapy) and 52 presented late. Baseline nonmalignant lesions (HR: 1.99), thrombocytopaenia (HR: 1.59) and diabetes (HR: 1.68) increased likelihood of HCC. Response to therapy was reduced in patients who developed liver cancer (SVR in patients with HCC = 54/80 (68%), SVR in patients without HCC = 143/165 (87%), P < 0.001, OR: 3.13, 95% CI: 1.64-5.99). We found no difference between tumour size, progression or survival between viraemic and nonviraemic patients. CONCLUSION: There is no alteration in prognosis or cancer progression following HCC development after HCV treatment. However, baseline nonmalignant liver lesions, diabetes and thrombocytopaenia increase the risk of HCC, and HCC is associated with a decreased SVR rate.

Epitope Presentation of Dengue Viral Envelope Glycoprotein Domain III on Hepatitis B Core Protein Virus-Like Particles Produced in Nicotiana benthamiana.

Dengue fever is currently ranked as the top emerging tropical disease, driven by increased global travel, urbanization, and poor hygiene conditions as well as global warming effects which facilitate the spread of Aedes mosquitoes beyond their current distribution. Today, more than 100 countries are affected most of which are tropical Asian and Latin American nations with limited access to medical care. Hence, the development of a dengue vaccine that is dually cost-effective and able to confer a comprehensive protection is ultimately needed. In this study, a consensus sequence of the antigenic dengue viral glycoprotein domain III (cEDIII) was used aiming to provide comprehensive coverage against all four circulating dengue viral serotypes and potential clade replacement event. Utilizing hepatitis B tandem core technology, the cEDIII sequence was inserted into the immunodominant c/e1 loop region so that it could be displayed on the spike structures of assembled particles. The tandem core particles displaying cEDIII epitopes (tHBcAg-cEDIII) were successfully produced in Nicotiana benthamiana via Agrobacterium-mediated transient expression strategy to give a protein of ∼54 kDa, detected in both soluble and insoluble fractions of plant extracts. The assembled tHBcAg-cEDIII virus-like particles (VLPs) were also visualized from transmission electron microscopy. These VLPs had diameters that range from 32 to 35 nm, presenting an apparent size increment as compared to tHBcAg control particles without cEDIII display (namely tEL). Mice immunized with tHBcAg-cEDIII VLPs showed a positive seroconversion to cEDIII antigen, thereby signifying that the assembled tHBcAg-cEDIII VLPs have successfully displayed cEDIII antigen to the immune system. If it is proven to be successful, tHBcAg-cEDIII has the potential to be developed as a cost-effective vaccine candidate that confers a simultaneous protection against all four infecting dengue viral serotypes.

The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test in diagnosis and management of liver fibrosis.

Liver disease is a major cause of mortality both globally and in the UK. The earlier liver fibrosis is detected, the sooner interventions can be implemented, including lifestyle changes and medications. Non-invasive tests for liver fibrosis are beginning to augment and replace liver biopsy in assessment of liver fibrosis because of their ease of use, lack of complications and reproducibility. The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test is a blood test that measures three molecules involved in liver matrix metabolism to give a score reflecting the severity of liver fibrosis. This article reviews the evidence supporting ELF as a diagnostic test, a prognostic marker and its use in disease monitoring. In doing so it highlights the important role ELF plays in the early recognition of liver fibrosis facilitating timely referral to a liver specialist. The ELF test is useful in primary, secondary and tertiary care, not only allowing earlier diagnosis and more accurate prognosis, but also providing the opportunity to personalize treatment based on the patient's response.

A Rapid and Robust Diagnostic for Liver Fibrosis Using a Multichannel Polymer Sensor Array.

Liver disease is the fifth most common cause of premature death in the Western world, with the irreversible damage caused by fibrosis, and ultimately cirrhosis, a primary driver of mortality. Early detection of fibrosis would facilitate treatment of the underlying liver disease to limit progression. Unfortunately, most cases of liver disease are diagnosed late, with current strategies reliant on invasive biopsy or fragile lab-based antibody technologies. A robust, fully synthetic fluorescent-polymer sensor array is reported, which, rapidly (in 45 minutes), detects liver fibrosis from low-volume serum samples with clinically relevant specificity and accuracy, using an easily readable diagnostic output. The simplicity, rapidity, and robustness of this method make it a promising platform for point-of-care diagnostics for detecting and monitoring liver disease.

TRAIL regulatory receptors constrain human hepatic stellate cell apoptosis.

The TRAIL pathway can mediate apoptosis of hepatic stellate cells to promote the resolution of liver fibrosis. However, TRAIL has the capacity to bind to regulatory receptors in addition to death-inducing receptors; their differential roles in liver fibrosis have not been investigated. Here we have dissected the contribution of regulatory TRAIL receptors to apoptosis resistance in primary human hepatic stellate cells (hHSC). hHSC isolated from healthy margins of liver resections from different donors expressed variable levels of TRAIL-R2/3/4 (but negligible TRAIL-R1) ex vivo and after activation. The apoptotic potential of TRAIL-R2 on hHSC was confirmed by lentiviral-mediated knockdown. A functional inhibitory role for TRAIL-R3/4 was revealed by shRNA knockdown and mAb blockade, showing that these regulatory receptors limit apoptosis of hHSC in response to both oligomerised TRAIL and NK cells. A close inverse ex vivo correlation between hHSC TRAIL-R4 expression and susceptibility to apoptosis underscored its central regulatory role. Our data provide the first demonstration of non-redundant functional roles for the regulatory TRAIL receptors (TRAIL-R3/4) in a physiological setting. The potential for these inhibitory TRAIL receptors to protect hHSC from apoptosis opens new avenues for prognostic and therapeutic approaches to the management of liver fibrosis.

Risk of chronic liver disease in post-menopausal women due to body mass index, alcohol and their interaction: a prospective nested cohort study within the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

BACKGROUND: We investigated the risk of chronic liver disease (CLD) due to alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) and the effects of their interaction in a prospective cohort study of women recruited to the UKCTOCS trial. METHODS: 95,126 post-menopausal women without documented CLD were stratified into 12 groups defined by combinations of BMI (normal, overweight, obese) and alcohol consumption (none, <1-15, 16-20 and ≥21 units/week), and followed for an average of 5.1 years. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated for incident liver-related events (LRE). RESULTS: First LREs were reported in 325 (0.34%) participants. Compared to women with normal BMI, HR = 1.44 (95% CI; 1.10-1.87) in the overweight group and HR = 2.25 (95% CI; 1.70-2.97) in the obese group, adjusted for alcohol and potential confounders. Compared to those abstinent from alcohol, HR = 0.70 (95% CI; 0.55-0.88) for <1-15 units/week, 0.93 (95% CI; 0.50-1.73) for 16-20 units/week and 1.82 (95% CI; 0.97-3.39) for ≥21 units/week adjusted for BMI and potential confounders. Compared to women with normal BMI drinking no alcohol, HR for LRE in obese women consuming ≥21 units/week was 2.86 (95% CI; 0.67-12.42), 1.58 (95% CI; 0.96-2.61) for obese women drinking <1-15 units/week and 1.93 (95% CI; 0.66-5.62) in those with normal BMI consuming ≥21 units/week after adjustment for potential confounders. We found no significant interaction between BMI and alcohol. CONCLUSION: High BMI and alcohol consumption and abstinence are risk factors for CLD in post-menopausal women. However, BMI and alcohol do not demonstrate significant interaction in this group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978 . Registered 06/04/2000.

Biomarkers of Hepatic Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis C: A Comparison of 10 Biomarkers Using 2 Different Assays for Hyaluronic Acid.

BACKGROUND: Advancing fibrosis is regarded as the most important factor when stratifying patients with chronic hepatitis C for retreatment. GOALS: (1) To compare the performance of 10 biomarkers of fibrosis, including patented tests, among patients with chronic hepatitis C and treatment failure; and (2) to assess the impact on biomarker performance of using 2 different assays of hyaluronic acid (HA). STUDY: For 80 patients, liver histology (Metavir) was compared with biomarker scores using sera obtained within 6 months of liver biopsy (indirect biomarkers: AST:ALT ratio, APRI, Forns index, FIB-4, Fibrometer V3G; direct biomarkers: ELF, Fibrospect II, Hyaluronic acid-HA, Fibrometer V2G, Hepascore). Direct biomarker scores were calculated using 2 validated assays for HA (ELISA and radiometric). RESULTS: Using the ELISA assay for HA to calculate the direct panels, all 10 of the biomarkers exhibited comparable overall discriminatory performance (unweighted Obuchowski measure, ordROC 0.92-0.94, P-value>0.05) except AST:ALT ratio and APRI (ordROC 0.86-0.88, P-value<0.05). For the detection of moderate (F2-4) and advanced (F3-4) fibrosis, the AUROC of Fibrometer 2G were significantly higher than AST:ALT ratio and APRI but none of the other biomarkers. Good correlation was observed between the 2 HA assays (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.873) with the ELISA assay exhibiting superior diagnostic performance (ordROC 0.92 vs. 0.88, P-value=0.003). Importantly, the performance of many of the direct biomarkers at their diagnostic thresholds was heavily influenced by the choice of HA assay. CONCLUSIONS: Although many biomarkers exhibited good diagnostic performance for the detection of advancing fibrosis, our results indicate that diagnostic performance may be significantly affected by the selection of individual component assays.

Noninvasive markers of liver fibrosis: on-treatment changes of serum markers predict the outcome of antifibrotic therapy.

AIM: The utility of noninvasive serum markers to longitudinally monitor liver fibrosis is not established. METHODS: A total of 70 patients with chronic hepatitis C who had previously failed antiviral therapy were randomized to receive pegylated interferon with or without silymarin for 24 months. Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) tests (hyularonic acid, terminal peptide of procollagen III, tissue inhibitor of matrix metaloproteinase-1) were performed on patient sera obtained before, during and at the end of the study (0, 12, 24 months) and liver histology obtained before and at the end of the study. RESULTS: At 24 months, absolute changes in Ishak fibrosis stage and ELF ranged from -4 to +4 and from -2.41 to +2.68, respectively. Absolute changes in ELF at 12 months were significantly associated with changes in both ELF and histology at 24 months. A model combining both baseline ELF and change of ELF at 12 months could predict the 24-month ELF (R=0.609, P<1×10), a decrease in ELF at 24 months [area under the curve (AUC): 0.80-0.85] and an increase in ELF at 24 months (AUC: 0.81-0.85). Furthermore, a model combining both baseline histologic stage and ELF together with the change of ELF at 12 months could predict 24-month histology (R=0.601, P<1×10, AUC: 0.88-0.92), histologic fibrosis regression (AUC: 0.81-0.84) and progression (AUC: 0.86-0.91). CONCLUSION: Our observations suggest that a change in the serum marker ELF predicts changes in liver fibrosis over a longer period. These data support the use of ELF as a surrogate marker of liver fibrosis evolution in monitoring antifibrotic treatments, thus permitting 'response-guided' therapy by the early identification of patients who will benefit from prolonged treatment.

Metabolic phenotyping for enhanced mechanistic stratification of chronic hepatitis C-induced liver fibrosis.

OBJECTIVES: The invasive nature of biopsy alongside issues with categorical staging and sampling error has driven research into noninvasive biomarkers for the assessment of liver fibrosis in order to stratify and personalize treatment of patients with liver disease. Here, we sought to determine whether a metabonomic approach could be used to identify signatures reflective of the dynamic, pathological metabolic perturbations associated with fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients. METHODS: Plasma nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectral profiles were generated for two independent cohorts of CHC patients and healthy controls (n=50 original and n=63 validation). Spectral data were analyzed and significant discriminant biomarkers associated with fibrosis (as graded by enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) and METAVIR scores) identified using orthogonal projection to latent structures (O-PLS). RESULTS: Increased severity of fibrosis was associated with higher tyrosine, phenylalanine, methionine, citrate and, very-low-density lipoprotein (vLDL) and lower creatine, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), phosphatidylcholine, and N-Acetyl-α1-acid-glycoprotein. Although area under the receiver operator characteristic curve analysis revealed a high predictive performance for classification based on METAVIR-derived models, <40% of identified biomarkers were validated in the second cohort. In the ELF-derived models, however, over 80% of the biomarkers were validated. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that modeling against a continuous ELF-derived score of fibrosis provides a more robust assessment of the metabolic changes associated with fibrosis than modeling against the categorical METAVIR score. Plasma metabolic phenotypes reflective of CHC-induced fibrosis primarily define alterations in amino-acid and lipid metabolism, and hence identify mechanistically relevant pathways for further investigation as therapeutic targets.

Equilibrium contrast-enhanced CT imaging to evaluate hepatic fibrosis: initial validation by comparison with histopathologic sampling.

PURPOSE: To prospectively evaluate hepatic extracellular volume (ECV) fraction measurement at equilibrium computed tomographic (CT) imaging compared with both fibrosis quantified with histologic analysis and the enhanced liver fibrosis panel (ELF) in a cohort of patients with chronic hepatitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective study was approved by the regional ethics committee. All patients gave fully informed written consent. Forty patients with a clinical indication for liver biopsy were prospectively recruited for liver ECV quantitation at equilibrium CT imaging. Biopsy samples underwent digital image analysis and assessment of collagen content expressed as the collagen-proportionate area (CPA). Spearman correlation was used to evaluate association between ECV, ELF, and CPA. Multiple regression analysis was used to test prediction of CPA by a model that combined ECV and ELF. ECV, ELF score, and CPA were compared with Ishak stage by using the Kruskal-Wallis test. RESULTS: Complete ECV, ELF, and CPA were available in 33 patients. Liver ECV, CPA, and ELF had a median of 0.26 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.24-0.29), 5.0 (IQR, 3.0-15.0), and 9.71 (IQR, 8.14-10.92), respectively. Hepatic ECV demonstrated good association with CPA (r = 0.64; P < .001) and ELF score (r = 0.38; P < .027), with no significant difference in strength of correlation (P = .177). The regression model that combined ELF and ECV achieved good prediction of CPA (R(2) = 0.67; P < .001). Significant variation in ECV and ELF was seen between fibrosis stage groups. CONCLUSION: Hepatic ECV measured with equilibrium CT imaging is associated with biopsy-derived CPA and serum ELF-validated markers of liver fibrosis. This suggests that equilibrium CT imaging can quantify diffuse fibrosis in chronic liver disease.

Modelling the impact of improving screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection on future hepatocellular carcinoma rates and liver-related mortality.

BACKGROUND: The societal, clinical and economic burden imposed by the complications of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection - including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) - is expected to increase over the coming decades. However, new therapies may improve sustained virological response (SVR) rates and shorten treatment duration. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of HCV-related disease in England if current management strategies remain the same and the impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available. METHODS: A previously published model was adapted for England using published literature and government reports, and validated through an iterative process of three meetings of HCV experts. The impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available was modelled and compared to the base-case scenario of continuing current management strategies. To assess the 'best case' clinical benefit of new therapies, the number of patients treated was increased by a total of 115% by 2018. RESULTS: In the base-case scenario, total viraemic (HCV RNA-positive) cases of HCV in England will decrease from 144,000 in 2013 to 76,300 in 2030. However, due to the slow progression of chronic HCV, the number of individuals with cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will continue to increase over this period. The model suggests that the 'best case' substantially reduces HCV-related hepatic disease and HCV-related liver mortality by 2020 compared to the base-case scenario. The number of HCV-related HCC cases would decrease 50% by 2020 and the number progressing from infection to decompensated cirrhosis would decline by 65%. Therefore, compared to projections of current practices, increasing treatment numbers by 115% by 2018 would reduce HCV-related mortality by 50% by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that with current treatment practices the number of patients developing HCV-related cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will increase substantially, with HCV-related liver deaths likely to double by 2030. However, increasing diagnosis and treatment rates could optimise the reduction in the burden of disease produced by the new therapies, potentially halving HCV-related liver mortality and HCV-related HCC by 2020.

Evaluation of the aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index and enhanced liver fibrosis tests to detect significant fibrosis due to chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C patients is important for prognosis and making decisions regarding antiviral treatment. Although liver biopsy is considered the reference standard for assessing hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C, it is invasive and associated with sampling and interobserver variability. Serum fibrosis markers have been utilized as surrogates for a liver biopsy. METHODS: We completed a prospective study of 191 patients in which blood draws and liver biopsies were performed on the same visit. Using liver biopsies the sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values for both aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI) and enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) were determined. The patients were divided into training and validation patient sets to develop and validate a clinically useful algorithm for differentiating mild and significant fibrosis. RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve for the APRI and ELF tests for the training set was 0.865 and 0.880, respectively. The clinical sensitivity in separating mild (F0-F1) from significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was 80% and 86.0% with a clinical specificity of 86.7% and 77.8%, respectively. For the validation sets the area under the ROC curve for the APRI and ELF tests was, 0.855 and 0.780, respectively. The clinical sensitivity of the APRI and ELF tests in separating mild (F0-F1) from significant (F2-F4) fibrosis for the validation set was 90.0% and 70.0% with a clinical specificity of 73.3% and 86.7%, respectively. There were no differences between the APRI and ELF tests in distinguishing mild from significant fibrosis for either the training or validation sets (P=0.61 and 0.20, respectively). Using APRI as the primary test followed by ELF for patients in the intermediate zone, would have decreased the number of liver biopsies needed by 40% for the validation set. Overall, use of our algorithm would have decreased the number of patients who needed a liver biopsy from 95 to 24-a 74.7% reduction. CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown that the APRI and ELF tests are equally accurate in distinguishing mild from significant liver fibrosis, and combining them into a validated algorithm improves their performance in distinguishing mild from significant fibrosis.

Validation of terminal peptide of procollagen III for the detection and assessment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

UNLABELLED: Liver biopsy is the reference standard for the detection of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) within nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The aim of this study was to identify a biomarker of NASH in patients without significant fibrosis. In all, 172 patients from two centers with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included in this study. Eighty-four patients from a single center were included as a derivation cohort and 88 patients from a second center were included as a validation cohort. Serum samples were tested for candidate markers of fibrosis and inflammation alongside hematological and biochemical markers. Among patients without advanced fibrosis, terminal peptide of procollagen III (PIIINP) was the only marker found to be associated with a histological diagnosis of NASH in both cohorts. PIIINP also correlated with the total NAFLD activity score (NAS) and its constituent components (P < 0.001). Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for PIIINP in discriminating between NASH and simple steatosis (SS) was 0.77-0.82 in patients with F0-2 fibrosis and 0.82-0.84 in patients with F0-3 fibrosis. PIIINP was elevated in patients with advanced fibrosis, the overwhelming majority of whom had NASH. When incorporating patients with all degrees of fibrosis from both cohorts, PIIINP was able to discriminate between patients with SS and those with NASH or advanced fibrosis with AUROC 0.85-0.87. CONCLUSION: PIIINP discriminates between SS and NASH or advanced fibrosis. The use of a single biomarker in this context will be of clinical utility in detecting the minority of patients with NAFLD who have NASH or advanced fibrosis related to NASH.