Tutorial on Biostatistics: Sample Size and Power Calculation for Ophthalmic Studies With Correlated Binary Eye Outcomes.

Purpose: To describe and demonstrate sample size and power calculation for ophthalmic studies with a binary outcome from one or both eyes. Methods: We describe sample size and power calculation for four commonly used eye designs: (1) one-eye design or person-design: one eye per subject or outcome is at person-level; (2) paired design: two eyes per subject and two eyes are in different treatment groups; (3) two-eye design: two eyes per subject and both eyes are in the same treatment group; and (4) mixture design: mixture of one eye and two eyes per subject. For each design, we demonstrate sample size and power calculations in real ophthalmic studies. Results: Using formulas and commercial or free statistical packages including SAS, STATA, R, and PS, we calculated sample size and power. We demonstrated that different statistical packages require different parameters and provide similar, yet not identical, results. We emphasize that studies using data from two eyes of a subject need to account for the intereye correlation for appropriate sample size and power calculations. We demonstrate the gain in efficiency in designs that include two eyes of a subject compared to one-eye designs. Conclusions: Ophthalmic studies use different eye designs that include one or both eyes in the same or different treatment groups. Appropriate sample size and power calculations depend on the eye design and should account for intereye correlation when two eyes from some or all subjects are included in a study. Calculations can be executed using formulas and commercial or free statistical packages.

Associations of stem cell markers CD44, CD24 and ALDH1A1 with mammographic breast density in women with benign breast biopsies.

BACKGROUND: We examined associations of CD44, CD24 and ALDH1A1 breast stem cell markers with mammographic breast density (MBD), a well-established breast cancer (BCa) risk factor. METHODS: We included 218 cancer-free women with biopsy-confirmed benign breast disease within the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. The data on BCa risk factors were obtained from biennial questionnaires. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was done on tissue microarrays. For each core, the IHC expression was assessed using a semi-automated platform and expressed as percent of positively stained cells for each marker out of the total cell count. MBD was assessed with computer-assisted techniques. Generalised linear regression was used to examine the associations of each marker with square root-transformed percent density (PD), absolute dense and non-dense areas (NDA), adjusted for BCa risk factors. RESULTS: Stromal CD44 and ALDH1A1 expression was positively associated with PD (≥ 10% vs. <10% ß = 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.06; 1.07] and ß = 0.81 [0.27; 1.34], respectively) and inversely associated with NDA (ß per 10% increase = -0.17 [-0.34; -0.01] and ß for ≥10% vs. <10% = -1.17 [-2.07; -0.28], respectively). Epithelial CD24 expression was inversely associated with PD (ß per 10% increase = -0.14 [-0.28; -0.01]. Stromal and epithelial CD24 expression was positively associated with NDA (ß per 10% increase = 0.35 [0.2 × 10-2; 0.70] and ß per 10% increase = 0.34 [0.11; 0.57], respectively). CONCLUSION: Expression of stem cell markers is associated with MBD.

Association of early menarche with breast tumor molecular features and recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Early menarche is an established risk factor for breast cancer but its molecular contribution to tumor biology and prognosis remains unclear. METHODS: We profiled transcriptome-wide gene expression in breast tumors (N = 846) and tumor-adjacent normal tissues (N = 666) from women in the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS) to investigate whether early menarche (age < 12) is associated with tumor molecular and prognostic features in women with breast cancer. Multivariable linear regression and pathway analyses using competitive gene set enrichment analysis were conducted in both tumor and adjacent-normal tissue and externally validated in TCGA (N = 116). Subgroup analyses stratified on ER-status based on the tumor were also performed. PAM50 signatures were used for tumor molecular subtyping and to generate proliferation and risk of recurrence scores. We created a gene expression score using LASSO regression to capture early menarche based on 28 genes from FDR-significant pathways in breast tumor tissue in NHS and tested its association with 10-year disease-free survival in both NHS (N = 836) and METABRIC (N = 952). RESULTS: Early menarche was significantly associated with 369 individual genes in adjacent-normal tissues implicated in extracellular matrix, cell adhesion, and invasion (FDR ≤ 0.1). Early menarche was associated with upregulation of cancer hallmark pathways (18 significant pathways in tumor, 23 in tumor-adjacent normal, FDR ≤ 0.1) related to proliferation (e.g. Myc, PI3K/AKT/mTOR, cell cycle), oxidative stress (e.g. oxidative phosphorylation, unfolded protein response), and inflammation (e.g. pro-inflammatory cytokines IFN α and IFN γ ). Replication in TCGA confirmed these trends. Early menarche was associated with significantly higher PAM50 proliferation scores (ß = 0.082 [0.02-0.14]), odds of aggressive molecular tumor subtypes (basal-like, OR = 1.84 [1.18-2.85] and HER2-enriched, OR = 2.32 [1.46-3.69]), and PAM50 risk of recurrence score (ß = 4.81 [1.71-7.92]). Our NHS-derived early menarche gene expression signature was significantly associated with worse 10-year disease-free survival in METABRIC (N = 952, HR = 1.58 [1.10-2.25]). CONCLUSIONS: Early menarche is associated with more aggressive molecular tumor characteristics and its gene expression signature within tumors is associated with worse 10-year disease-free survival among women with breast cancer. As the age of onset of menarche continues to decline, understanding its relationship to breast tumor characteristics and prognosis may lead to novel secondary prevention strategies.

Mitigation of Effect Modification by Psychological Status in Patients With Hearing Loss.

Importance: Although patient-reported outcomes provide valuable insights, these subjective data may not align with objective test results. Hearing loss is a pervasive problem, such that concordance between subjective perceptions of hearing ability and objective audiogram assessments would be beneficial. Objectives: To determine (1) whether psychological status is an effect modifier of the association between subjective patient reports of hearing ability and objective audiometry results, and (2) whether any effect modification observed in standard static questionnaires would be either mitigated or exacerbated by adaptive testing based on Item Response Theory analyses. Design, Setting, and Participants: This diagnostic study at a tertiary care center and community-based practice included consecutive adults who presented with queries related to hearing loss. Participants were recruited and enrolled and data analyses occurred from 2022 to 2024. Exposures: Participants prospectively reported their hearing-specific abilities through either a standard static or adaptive version of the Inner Effectiveness of Auditory Rehabilitation (EAR) scale, alongside validated measures of their mental health and audiometry. Word recognition scores (WRS) and pure tone averages (PTA) were used to analyze audiometric testing. Main Outcomes and Measures: The association between subjective Inner EAR results and audiometry was evaluated. Stratified analyses were used to assess for effect modification by psychological status. The results of standard static and adaptive testing were compared. Results: In this study of 395 patients (mean [range] age, 55.9 [18-89] years; 210 [53.2%] female), standard static Inner EAR mean scores were appropriately higher in patients with higher (better) WRS (50.7, 95% CI, 46.4-54.9), compared with patients with lower (worse) WRS (34.7, 95% CI, 24.3-45.1). However, among patients with worse mental health, there was no association between standard static Inner EAR scores and WRS. In contrast, adaptive Inner EAR mean scores were significantly higher for those with better WRS, regardless of mental health status. Thus, effect modification was observed in standard static assessments, whereas adaptive testing remained durably associated with audiometry, regardless of mental health. Conclusions and Relevance: Psychological status was an effect modifier of the association between standard Inner EAR scale scores and audiometry, with a positive association observed only in those with better mental health. Adaptive testing scores, however, remained significantly associated with audiometry, even when mental status was worse. Adaptive testing may stabilize the association between subjective and objective hearing outcomes.

Associations of Early-Life and Adult Anthropometric Measures with the Expression of Stem Cell Markers CD44, CD24, and ALDH1A1 in Women with Benign Breast Biopsies.

BACKGROUND: According to the stem cell hypothesis, breast carcinogenesis may be related to the breast stem cell pool size. However, little is known about associations of breast cancer risk factors, such as anthropometric measures, with the expression of stem cell markers in noncancerous breast tissue. METHODS: The analysis included 414 women with biopsy-confirmed benign breast disease in the Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II. Birthweight, weight at age 18, current weight, and current height were reported via self-administered questionnaires. IHC staining of stem cell markers (CD44, CD24, and aldehyde dehydrogenase family 1 member A1) in histopathologically normal epithelial and stromal breast tissue was quantified using an automated computational image analysis system. Linear regression was used to examine the associations of early-life and adult anthropometric measures with log-transformed stem cell marker expression, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Birthweight [≥10.0 vs. <5.5 lbs: ß (95% confidence interval) = 4.29 (1.02, 7.56); P trend = 0.001 in the stroma] and adult height [≥67.0 vs. <63.0 inch: 0.86 (0.14, 1.58); P trend = 0.02 in the epithelium and stroma combined] were positively associated with CD44 expression. Childhood body fatness was inversely associated (P trend = 0.03) whereas adult height was positively associated with CD24 expression in combined stroma and epithelium (P trend = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that anthropometric measures, such as birthweight, adult height, and childhood body fatness, may be associated with the stem cell expression among women with benign breast disease. IMPACT: Anthropometric measures, such as birthweight, height, and childhood body fatness, may have long-term impacts on stem cell population in the breast.

Recreational physical activity and breast cancer risk by menopausal status and tumor hormone receptor status: results from the Nurses' Health Studies.

PURPOSE: Physical activity is associated with lower breast cancer risk, especially in postmenopausal women. Associations in premenopausal women are less well established. METHODS: We evaluated recreational physical activity and breast cancer risk in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHSII (187,278 women; n = 12,785 breast cancers; follow-up: NHS = 1986-2016, NHSII = 1989-2017) by menopausal status and estrogen (ER) and progesterone (PR) receptor status. Physical activity was evaluated as updated cumulative average of metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-h/week. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Recreational physical activity was inversely associated with breast cancer risk in pre- and postmenopausal women. Higher activity levels were associated with lower risk of ER+/PR + breast cancer in both pre- and postmenopausal women (e.g., total recreational activity, ≥ 27 vs < 3 MET-h/week, premenopausal HR = 0.83, 95%CI = (0.70-0.99), postmenopausal HR = 0.86 (0.78-0.95); pheterogeneity = 0.97). Results were attenuated with adjustment for current body mass index (BMI) among postmenopausal, but not premenopausal, women (e.g., ≥ 27 vs < 3 MET-h/week, premenopausal HR = 0.83 (0.69-0.98); postmenopausal HR = 0.95 (0.85-1.05); pheterogeneity = 0.99). In analyses of moderate-vigorous activity and breast cancer risk, no heterogeneity by menopausal status was observed (phet ≥ 0.53; e.g., ≥ 27 vs < 3 MET-h/week, ER+/PR+, premenopausal HR = 0.88 (0.69-1.11); postmenopausal HR = 0.71 (0.58-0.88). No associations were observed for ER-/PR- disease. CONCLUSIONS: Recreational physical activity was associated with lower breast cancer risk in both pre- and postmenopausal women, supporting recreational physical activity as an accessible, modifiable exposure associated with reduced breast cancer risk regardless of menopausal status.

Associations of reproductive breast cancer risk factors with expression of stem cell markers in benign breast tissue.

Background: We investigated the associations of reproductive factors known to influence breast cancer risk with the expression of breast stem cell markers CD44, CD24, and ALDH1A1 in benign breast biopsy samples. Methods: We included 439 cancer-free women with biopsy-confirmed benign breast disease within the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. The data on reproductive and other breast cancer risk factors were obtained from biennial questionnaires. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was performed on tissue microarrays. For each core, the IHC expression was assessed using a semi-automated platform and expressed as % of cells that stained positive for a specific marker out of the total cell count. Generalized linear regression was used to examine the associations of reproductive factors with a log-transformed expression of each marker (in epithelium and stroma), adjusted for other breast cancer risk factors. Results: In multivariate analysis, the time between menarche and age at first birth was inversely associated with CD44 in epithelium (ß per 5 years = -0.38, 95% CI -0.69; -0.06). Age at first birth and the time between menarche and age at first birth were inversely associated with ALDH1A1 (stroma: ß per 5 years = -0.43, 95% CI -0.76; -0.10 and ß = -0.47, 95% CI -0.79; -0.15, respectively; epithelium: ß = -0.15, 95% CI -0.30; -0.01 and ß = -0.17, 95% CI -0.30; -0.03, respectively). Time since last pregnancy was inversely associated with stromal ALDH1A1 (ß per 5 years = -0.55, 95% CI -0.98; -0.11). No associations were found for CD24. The observed associations were similar in premenopausal women. In postmenopausal women, lifetime duration of breastfeeding was inversely associated with stromal ALDH1A1 expression (ß for ≥24 vs. 0 to <1 months = -2.24, 95% CI 3.96; -0.51, p-trend = 0.01). Conclusion: Early-life reproductive factors may influence CD44 and ALDH1A1 expression in benign breast tissue.

Metformin and other anti-diabetic medication use and breast cancer incidence in the Nurses' Health Studies.

We aimed to examine the association between the use of metformin and other anti-diabetic medications and breast cancer incidence within two large prospective cohort studies. We followed 185,181 women who participated in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS; 1994-2016) and the NHSII (1995-2017), with baseline corresponding to the date metformin was approved for type 2 diabetes (T2D) treatment in the US Information on T2D diagnosis, anti-diabetes medications, and other covariates was self-reported at baseline and repeatedly assessed by follow-up questionnaires every 2 years. Breast cancer cases were self-reported and confirmed by medical record review. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between medication use and breast cancer were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusting for breast cancer risk factors. During 3,324,881 person-years of follow-up, we ascertained 9,192 incident invasive breast cancer cases, of which 451 were among women with T2D. Compared with women without T2D (n = 169,263), neither metformin use (HR = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.81-1.15) nor other anti-diabetic medications use (HR = 1.11; 95% CI = 0.90-1.36) associated with significantly lower breast cancer incidence. Among women with T2D (n = 15,918), compared with metformin never users, metformin ever use was not significantly inversely associated with breast cancer (HR = 0.92; 95% CI = 0.74-1.15). Although we observed that past use of metformin was inversely associated with breast cancer in the T2D population (HR = 0.67; 95% CI = 0.48-0.94), current use (HR = 1.01; 95% CI = 0.80-1.27) and longer duration of metformin use were not associated with breast cancer (each 2-year interval: HR = 1.01; 95% CI = 0.95-1.07). Overall, metformin use was not associated with the risk of developing breast cancer among the overall cohort population or among women with T2D.

Reproductive Factors Related to Childbearing and a Novel Automated Mammographic Measure, V.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the associations between several reproductive factors related to childbearing and the variation (V) measure (a novel, objective, single summary measure of breast image intensity) by menopausal status. METHODS: Our study included 3,814 cancer-free women within the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHSII cohorts. The data on reproductive variables and covariates were obtained from biennial questionnaires closest to the mammogram date. V-measures were obtained from mammographic images using a previously developed algorithm capturing the standard deviation of pixel values. We used multivariate linear regression to examine the associations of parity, age at first birth, time between menarche and first birth, time since last pregnancy, and lifetime breastfeeding duration with V-measure, adjusting for breast cancer risk factors, including the percentage of mammographic density (PMD). We further examined whether these associations were statistically accounted for (mediated) by PMD. RESULTS: Among premenopausal women, none of the reproductive factors were associated with V. Among postmenopausal women, inverse associations of parity and positive associations of age at first birth with V were mediated by PMD (percent mediated: nulliparity: 66.7%, P < 0.0001; parity: 50.5%, P < 0.01; age at first birth 76.1%, P < 0.001) and were no longer significant in PMD-adjusted models. Lifetime duration of breastfeeding was positively associated with V [>36 vs. 0 ≤1 months ß = 0.29; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.07; 0.52, Ptrend < 0.01], independent of PMD. CONCLUSIONS: Parity, age at first birth, and breastfeeding were associated with postmenopausal V. IMPACT: This study highlights associations of reproductive factors with mammographic image intensity.

Validity and Reproducibility of a Semiquantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire for Measuring Intakes of Foods and Food Groups.

We evaluated the validity and reproducibility of a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) for measuring intakes of 149 foods and 25 food groups among 736 participants of the Women's Lifestyle Validation Study (WLVS, 2010-2012) and 649 participants of the Men's Lifestyle Validation Study (MLVS, 2011-2013). Validity of the FFQ compared with two 7-day dietary records measured 6 months apart and the reproducibility between 2 FFQs administered 1 year apart (FFQ1 and FFQ2) were assessed using Spearman correlations and intraclass correlation coefficients. The average 1-year reproducibility of FFQ-measured foods was 0.64 in both the WLVS and MLVS. Reproducibility of the food groups (mean = 0.71 among women and 0.72 among men) was generally higher than that for individual foods. Among women, the average validity correlation for individual foods was 0.59 when comparing FFQ2 with the 7-day dietary records. Among men, the corresponding average validity correlation was 0.61. Compared with individual foods, food groups had slightly higher validity correlations in both women (range, 0.45-0.92; mean = 0.61) and men (range, 0.46-0.88; mean = 0.65). This study reaffirms that the FFQ performs well in measuring most foods and food groups and provides data to adjust for measurement errors in epidemiologic studies of foods and food groups.

Validating a model for predicting breast cancer and nonbreast cancer death in women aged 55 years and older.

BACKGROUND: To support mammography screening decision making, we developed a competing-risk model to estimate 5-year breast cancer risk and 10-year nonbreast cancer death for women aged 55 years and older using Nurses' Health Study data and examined model performance in the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS). Here, we examine model performance in predicting 10-year outcomes in the BWHS, Women's Health Initiative-Extension Study (WHI-ES), and Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) and compare model performance to existing breast cancer prediction models. METHODS: We used competing-risk regression and Royston and Altman methods for validating survival models to calculate our model's calibration and discrimination (C index) in BWHS (n = 17 380), WHI-ES (n = 106 894), and MEC (n = 49 668). The Nurses' Health Study development cohort (n = 48 102) regression coefficients were applied to the validation cohorts. We compared our model's performance with breast cancer risk assessment tool (Gail) and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS) models by computing breast cancer risk estimates and C statistics. RESULTS: When predicting 10-year breast cancer risk, our model's C index was 0.569 in BWHS, 0.572 in WHI-ES, and 0.576 in MEC. The Gail model's C statistic was 0.554 in BWHS, 0.564 in WHI-ES, and 0.551 in MEC; IBIS's C statistic was 0.547 in BWHS, 0.552 in WHI-ES, and 0.562 in MEC. The Gail model underpredicted breast cancer risk in WHI-ES; IBIS underpredicted breast cancer risk in WHI-ES and in MEC but overpredicted breast cancer risk in BWHS. Our model calibrated well. Our model's C index for predicting 10-year nonbreast cancer death was 0.760 in WHI-ES and 0.763 in MEC. CONCLUSIONS: Our competing-risk model performs as well as existing breast cancer prediction models in diverse cohorts and predicts nonbreast cancer death. We are developing a website to disseminate our model.

Incidence of and Risk Factors for Cataract in Anterior Uveitis.

PURPOSE: To estimate the incidence/risk factors for cataract in noninfectious anterior uveitis. DESIGN: Retrospective multicenter cohort study (6 US tertiary uveitis sites, 1978-2010). METHODS: Data were harvested by trained expert reviewers, using protocol-driven review of experts' charts. We studied cataract incidence-newly reduced visual acuity worse than 20/40 attributed to cataract; or incident cataract surgery-in 3923 eyes of 2567 patients with anterior uveitis. RESULTS: Cataract developed in 507 eyes (54/1000 eye-years, 95% CI 49-59). Time-updated risk factors associated with cataract included older age (≥65 vs <18 years: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 5.04, 95% CI 3.04-8.33), higher anterior chamber cell grade (P(trend)=0.001), prior incisional glaucoma surgery (aHR 1.86, 95% CI 1.10-3.14), band keratopathy (aHR 2.23, 95% CI 1.47-3.37), posterior synechiae (aHR 3.71, 95% CI 2.83-4.87), and elevated intraocular pressure ≥30 vs 6-20 mm Hg (aHR 2.57, 95% CI 1.38-4.77). Primary acute (aHR 0.59, 95% CI 0.30-1.15) and recurrent acute (aHR 0.74, 95% CI 0.55-0.98) had lower cataract risk than chronic anterior uveitis. Higher-dose prednisolone acetate 1%-equivalent use (≥2 drops/day) was associated with >2-fold higher cataract risk in eyes with anterior chamber cell grades 0.5+ or lower but was not associated with higher cataract risk in the presence of anterior chamber cells of grade 1+ or higher. CONCLUSIONS: Cataract complicates anterior uveitis in ∼5.4/100 eye-years. Several fixed and modifiable risk factors were identified, yielding a point system to guide cataract risk minimization. Topical corticosteroids only were associated with increased cataract risk when anterior chamber cells were absent or minimally present, suggesting their use to treat active inflammation (which itself is cataractogenic) does not cause a net increase in cataract incidence.

Consumption of olive oil and risk of breast cancer in U.S. women: results from the Nurses' Health Studies.

BACKGROUND: Olive oil consumption may reduce breast cancer risk, but it is unclear whether olive oil is beneficial for breast cancer prevention in populations outside of Mediterranean regions, namely in the U.S., where the average consumption of olive oil is low compared with Mediterranean populations. We examined whether olive oil intake was associated with breast cancer risk in two prospective cohorts of U.S. women. METHODS: We used multivariable-adjusted time-varying Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for breast cancer among 71,330 (Nurses' Health Study, 1990-2016) and 93,295 women (Nurses' Health Study II, 1991-2017) who were free of cancer at baseline. Diet was assessed by a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire every 4 years. RESULTS: During 3,744,068 person-years of follow-up, 9,638 women developed invasive breast cancer. The multivariable-adjusted HR (95% CI) for breast cancer among women who had the highest consumption of olive oil (>1/2 tablespoon/d or >7 g/d) compared with those who never or rarely consumed olive oil, was 1.01 (0.93, 1.09). Higher olive oil consumption was not associated with any subtype of breast cancer. CONCLUSION: We did not observe an association between higher olive oil intake and breast cancer risk in two large prospective cohorts of U.S. women, whose average olive oil consumption was low. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings and to further investigate whether different varieties of olive oil (e.g., virgin and extra virgin olive oil) may play a role in breast cancer risk.

Associations of low-carbohydrate diets with breast cancer survival.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to evaluate the role of low-carbohydrate diets after breast cancer diagnosis in relation to breast cancer-specific and all-cause mortality. METHODS: For 9621 women with stage I-III breast cancer from two ongoing cohort studies, the Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II, overall low-carbohydrate, animal-rich low-carbohydrate, and plant-rich low-carbohydrate diet scores were calculated by using food frequency questionnaires collected after breast cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: Participants were followed up for a median 12.4 years after breast cancer diagnosis. We documented 1269 deaths due to breast cancer and 3850 all-cause deaths. With the use of Cox proportional hazards regression and after controlling for potential confounding variables, we observed a significantly lower risk of overall mortality among women with breast cancer who had greater adherence to overall low-carbohydrate diets (hazard ratio for quintile 5 vs. quintile 1 [HRQ5vsQ1 ], 0.82; 95% CI, 0.74-0.91; ptrend  = .0001) and plant-rich low-carbohydrate diets (HRQ5vsQ1 , 0.73; 95% CI, 0.66-0.82; ptrend < .0001) after breast cancer diagnosis but not animal-rich low-carbohydrate diets (HRQ5vsQ1 , 0.93; 95% CI, 0.84-1.04; ptrend  = .23). However, greater adherence to overall, animal-rich, or plant-rich low-carbohydrate diets was not significantly associated with a lower risk of breast cancer-specific mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that greater adherence to low-carbohydrate diets, especially plant-rich low-carbohydrate diets, was associated with better overall survival but not breast cancer-specific survival among women with stage I-III breast cancer.

Age-dependent differences and similarities in the plasma proteomic signature of postoperative delirium.

Delirium is an acute confusional state and a common postoperative morbidity. Prevalent in older adults, delirium occurs at other ages but it is unclear whether the pathophysiology and biomarkers for the condition are independent of age. We quantified expression of 273 plasma proteins involved in inflammation and cardiovascular or neurologic conditions in 34 middle-aged and 42 older patients before and one day after elective spine surgery. Delirium was identified by the 3D-CAM and comprehensive chart review. Protein expression was measure by Proximity Extension Assay and results were analyzed by logistic regression, gene set enrichment, and protein-protein interactions. Twenty-two patients developed delirium postoperatively (14 older; 8 middle-aged) and 89 proteins in pre- or 1-day postoperative plasma were associated with delirium. A few proteins (IL-8, LTBR, TNF-R2 postoperatively; IL-8, IL-6, LIF, ASGR1 by pre- to postoperative change) and 12 networks were common to delirium in both age groups. However, there were marked differences in the delirium proteome by age; older patients had many more delirium-associated proteins and pathways than middle-aged subjects even though both had the same clinical syndrome. Therefore, there are age-dependent similarities and differences in the plasma proteomic signature of postoperative delirium, which may signify age differences in pathogenesis of the syndrome.

Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Predicting Contrast-Associated Acute Kidney Injury in Patients With Cancer: Evaluation in Over 46,000 CT Examinations.

BACKGROUND. Patients with cancer undergo frequent CT examinations with iodinated contrast media and may be uniquely predisposed to contrast-associated acute kidney injury (CA-AKI). OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a model for predicting the risk of CA-AKI after contrast-enhanced CT in patients with cancer. METHODS. This retrospective study included 25,184 adult patients (12,153 men, 13,031 women; mean age, 62.3 ± 13.7 [SD] years) with cancer who underwent 46,593 contrast-enhanced CT examinations between January 1, 2016, and June 20, 2020, at one of three academic medical centers. Information was recorded regarding demographics, malignancy type, medication use, baseline laboratory values, and comorbid conditions. CA-AKI was defined as a 0.3-mg/dL or greater increase in serum creatinine level from baseline within 48 hours after CT or a 1.5-fold or greater increase in the peak measurement within 14 days after CT. Multivariable models accounting for correlated data were used to identify risk factors for CA-AKI. A risk score for predicting CA-AKI was generated in a development set (n = 30,926) and tested in a validation set (n = 15,667). RESULTS. CA-AKI occurred after 5.8% (2682/46,593) of CT examinations. The final multivariable model for predicting CA-AKI included hematologic malignancy, diuretic use, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker use, chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 3a, CKD stage 3b, CKD stage 4 or 5, serum albumin level less than 3.0 g/dL, platelet count less than 150 × 103/µL, 1+ or greater proteinuria on baseline urinalysis, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and contrast medium volume 100 mL or greater. A risk score (range, 0-53 points) was generated with these variables. The most points (13) were for CKD stage 4 or 5 and for albumin level less than 3 g/dL. The frequency of CA-AKI progressively increased in higher risk categories. For example, in the validation set, CA-AKI occurred after 2.2% of CT examinations in the lowest risk category (score ≤ 4) and after 32.7% of CT examinations in the highest risk category (score ≥ 30). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test result indicated that the risk score was a good fit (p = .40). CONCLUSION. A risk model in which readily available clinical data are used to predict the likelihood of CA-AKI after contrast-enhanced CT in patients with cancer was developed and validated. CLINICAL IMPACT. The model may help facilitate appropriate implementation of preventive measures in the care of patients at high risk of CA-AKI.

Longitudinal Analysis of Change in Mammographic Density in Each Breast and Its Association With Breast Cancer Risk.

Importance: Although breast density is an established risk factor for breast cancer, longitudinal changes in breast density have not been extensively studied to determine whether this factor is associated with breast cancer risk. Objective: To prospectively evaluate the association between change in mammographic density in each breast over time and risk of subsequent breast cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nested case-control cohort study was sampled from the Joanne Knight Breast Health Cohort of 10 481 women free from cancer at entry and observed from November 3, 2008, to October 31, 2020, with routine screening mammograms every 1 to 2 years, providing a measure of breast density. Breast cancer screening was provided for a diverse population of women in the St Louis region. A total of 289 case patients with pathology-confirmed breast cancer were identified, and approximately 2 control participants were sampled for each case according to age at entry and year of enrollment, yielding 658 controls with a total number of 8710 craniocaudal-view mammograms for analysis. Exposures: Exposures included screening mammograms with volumetric percentage of density, change in volumetric breast density over time, and breast biopsy pathology-confirmed cancer. Breast cancer risk factors were collected via questionnaire at enrollment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Longitudinal changes over time in each woman's volumetric breast density by case and control status. Results: The mean (SD) age of the 947 participants was 56.67 (8.71) years at entry; 141 were Black (14.9%), 763 were White (80.6%), 20 were of other race or ethnicity (2.1%), and 23 did not report this information (2.4%). The mean (SD) interval was 2.0 (1.5) years from last mammogram to date of subsequent breast cancer diagnosis (10th percentile, 1.0 year; 90th percentile, 3.9 years). Breast density decreased over time in both cases and controls. However, there was a significantly slower decrease in rate of decline in density in the breast that developed breast cancer compared with the decline in controls (estimate = 0.027; 95% CI, 0.001-0.053; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that the rate of change in breast density was associated with the risk of subsequent breast cancer. Incorporation of longitudinal changes into existing models could optimize risk stratification and guide more personalized risk management.

Measurement of Ovarian Tumor Immune Profiles by Multiplex Immunohistochemistry: Implications for Epidemiologic Studies.

BACKGROUND: Despite the immunogenic nature of many ovarian tumors, treatment with immune checkpoint therapies has not led to substantial improvements in ovarian cancer survival. To advance population-level research on the ovarian tumor immune microenvironment, it is critical to understand methodologic issues related to measurement of immune cells on tissue microarrays (TMA) using multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) assays. METHODS: In two prospective cohorts, we collected formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded ovarian tumors from 486 cases and created seven TMAs. We measured T cells, including several sub-populations, and immune checkpoint markers on the TMAs using two mIF panels. We used Spearman correlations, Fisher exact tests, and multivariable-adjusted beta-binomial models to evaluate factors related to immune cell measurements in TMA tumor cores. RESULTS: Between-core correlations of intratumoral immune markers ranged from 0.52 to 0.72, with more common markers (e.g., CD3+, CD3+CD8+) having higher correlations. Correlations of immune cell markers between the whole core, tumor area, and stromal area were high (range 0.69-0.97). In multivariable-adjusted models, odds of T-cell positivity were lower in clear cell and mucinous versus type II tumors (ORs, 0.13-0.48) and, for several sub-populations, were lower in older tissue (sample age > 30 versus ≤ 10 years; OR, 0.11-0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, high correlations between cores for immune markers measured via mIF support the use of TMAs in studying ovarian tumor immune infiltration, although very old samples may have reduced antigenicity. IMPACT: Future epidemiologic studies should evaluate differences in the tumor immune response by histotype and identify modifiable factors that may alter the tumor immune microenvironment.

Associations of alcohol consumption with breast tissue composition.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the associations of alcohol with percentage of epithelium, stroma, fibroglandular tissue (epithelium + stroma), and fat in benign breast biopsy samples. METHODS: We included 857 cancer-free women with biopsy-confirmed benign breast disease within the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHSII cohorts. Percentage of each tissue was measured on whole slide images using a deep-learning algorithm and then log-transformed. Alcohol consumption (recent and cumulative average) was assessed with semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires. Regression estimates were adjusted for known breast cancer risk factors. All tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Alcohol was inversely associated with % of stroma and fibroglandular tissue (recent ≥ 22 g/day vs. none: stroma: ß = - 0.08, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] - 0.13; - 0.03; fibroglandular: ß = - 0.08, 95% CI - 0.13; - 0.04; cumulative ≥ 22 g/day vs. none: stroma: ß = - 0.08, 95% CI - 0.13; - 0.02; fibroglandular: ß = - 0.09, 95% CI - 0.14; - 0.04) and positively associated with fat % (recent ≥ 22 g/day vs. none: ß = 0.30, 95% CI 0.03; 0.57; cumulative ≥ 22 g/day vs. none: ß = 0.32, 95% CI 0.04; 0.61). In stratified analysis, alcohol consumption was not associated with tissue measures in premenopausal women. In postmenopausal women, cumulative alcohol use was inversely associated with % of stroma and fibroglandular tissue and positively associated with fat % (≥ 22 g/day vs. none: stroma: ß = - 0.16, 95% CI - 0.28; - 0.07; fibroglandular: ß = - 0.18, 95% CI - 0.28; - 0.07; fat: ß = 0.61, 95% CI 0.01; 1.22), with similar results for recent alcohol use. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that alcohol consumption is associated with smaller % of stroma and fibroglandular tissue and a greater % of fat in postmenopausal women. Future studies are warranted to confirm our findings and to elucidate the underlying biological mechanisms.

Simple Prediction Model for Colorectal Serrated Polyps: Development and External Validation Study in U.S. Prospective Cohorts.

Serrated polyps (SP) are precursors for colorectal cancer and contribute disproportionately to postcolonoscopy cancers. Leveraging three U.S. cohorts (43,974 women and 5,322 men), we developed prediction models for high-risk SPs (sized ≥10 mm or ≥3) among individuals undergoing their first colonoscopy screening. We then validated the model in the Partners Colonoscopy Cohort (51,203 women and 39,077 men). We evaluated discrimination and calibration using the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively. The age and family history model generated a C-statistic [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.57 (0.56-0.58) in women and 0.58 (0.55-0.61) in men. Further inclusion of smoking, alcohol, and body mass index (the simple model) increased the C-statistic (95% CI) to 0.68 (0.67-0.69) in women and 0.68 (0.66-0.71) in men (all P < 0.001). Adding more predictors did not provide much incremental predictivity. In the validation cohort, moderate discrimination was observed in both women (0.60, 0.58-0.61) and men (0.60, 0.59-0.62). Notably, the simple model also yielded similar C-statistics for a composite endpoint of SPs and high-risk conventional adenomas (women, 0.62, 0.62-0.63; men, 0.63, 0.61-0.64). The model was adequately calibrated in both sets of cohorts. In summary, we developed and externally validated a simple prediction model based on five major risk factors for high-risk SPs that may be useful for healthy lifestyle recommendations and tailored colorectal cancer screening. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: On the basis of four prospective studies in the United States, we developed and externally validated a simple risk prediction model for high-risk SPs in the setting of colonoscopy screening. Our model showed moderate discriminatory accuracy and has potential utility for individualized risk assessment, healthy lifestyle recommendations, and tailored colorectal cancer prevention.