Assessing the clinical utility of biomarkers using the intervention probability curve (IPC).

BACKGROUND: Assessing the clinical utility of biomarkers is a critical step before clinical implementation. The reclassification of patients across clinically relevant subgroups is considered one of the best methods to estimate clinical utility. However, there are important limitations with this methodology. We recently proposed the intervention probability curve (IPC) which models the likelihood that a provider will choose an intervention as a continuous function of the probability, or risk, of disease. OBJECTIVE: To assess the potential impact of a new biomarker for lung cancer using the IPC. METHODS: The IPC derived from the National Lung Screening Trial was used to assess the potential clinical utility of a biomarker for suspected lung cancer. The summary statistics of the change in likelihood of intervention over the population can be interpreted as the expected clinical impact of the added biomarker. RESULTS: The IPC analysis of the novel biomarker estimated that 8% of the benign nodules could avoid an invasive procedure while the cancer nodules would largely remain unchanged (0.1%). We showed the benefits of this approach compared to traditional reclassification methods based on thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: The IPC methodology can be a valuable tool for assessing biomarkers prior to clinical implementation.

Tumoral Densities of T-Cells and Mast Cells Are Associated With Recurrence in Early-Stage Lung Adenocarcinoma.

Introduction: Lung cancer is the deadliest cancer in the United States and worldwide, and lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is the most prevalent histologic subtype in the United States. LUAD exhibits a wide range of aggressiveness and risk of recurrence, but the biological underpinnings of this behavior are poorly understood. Past studies have focused on the biological characteristics of the tumor itself, but the ability of the immune response to contain tumor growth represents an alternative or complementary hypothesis. Emerging technologies enable us to investigate the spatial distribution of specific cell types within the tumor nest and characterize this immune response. This study aimed to investigate the association between immune cell density within the primary tumor and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in stage I and II LUAD. Methods: This study is a prospective collection with retrospective evaluation. A total of 100 patients with surgically resected LUAD and at least 5-year follow-ups, including 69 stage I and 31 stages II tumors, were enrolled. Multiplexed immunohistochemistry panels for immune markers were used for measurement. Results: Cox regression models adjusted for sex and EGFR mutation status revealed that the risk of recurrence was reduced by 50% for the unit of one interquartile range (IQR) change in the tumoral T-cell (adjusted hazard ratio per IQR increase = 0.50, 95% confidence interval: 0.27-0.93) and decreased by 64% in mast cell density (adjusted hazard ratio per IQR increase = 0.36, confidence interval: 0.15-0.84). The analyses were reported without the type I error correction for the multiple types of immune cell testing. Conclusions: Analysis of the density of immune cells within the tumor and surrounding stroma reveals an association between the density of T-cells and RFS and between mast cells and RFS in early-stage LUAD. This preliminary result is a limited study with a small sample size and a lack of an independent validation set.

Integrated Multi-omics Analysis of Early Lung Adenocarcinoma Links Tumor Biological Features with Predicted Indolence or Aggressiveness.

Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is a heterogeneous group of tumors associated with different survival rates, even when detected at an early stage. Here, we aim to investigate the biological determinants of early LUAD indolence or aggressiveness using radiomics as a surrogate of behavior. We present a set of 92 patients with LUAD with data collected across different methodologies. Patients were risk-stratified using the CT-based Score Indicative of Lung cancer Aggression (SILA) tool (0 = least aggressive, 1 = most aggressive). We grouped the patients as indolent (x ≤ 0.4, n = 14), intermediate (0.4 > x ≤ 0.6, n = 27), and aggressive (0.6 > x ≤ 1, n = 52). Using Cytometry by time of flight (CyTOF), we identified subpopulations with high HLA-DR expression that were associated with indolent behavior. In the RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) dataset, pathways related to immune response were associated with indolent behavior, while pathways associated with cell cycle and proliferation were associated with aggressive behavior. We extracted quantitative radiomics features from the CT scans of the patients. Integrating these datasets, we identified four feature signatures and four patient clusters that were associated with survival. Using single-cell RNA-seq, we found that indolent tumors had significantly more T cells and less B cells than aggressive tumors, and that the latter had a higher abundance of regulatory T cells and Th cells. In conclusion, we were able to uncover a correspondence between radiomics and tumor biology, which could improve the discrimination between indolent and aggressive LUAD tumors, enhance our knowledge in the biology of these tumors, and offer novel and personalized avenues for intervention. Significance: This study provides a comprehensive profiling of LUAD indolence and aggressiveness at the biological bulk and single-cell levels, as well as at the clinical and radiomics levels. This hypothesis generating study uncovers several potential future research avenues. It also highlights the importance and power of data integration to improve our systemic understanding of LUAD and to help reduce the gap between basic science research and clinical practice.

The Intervention Probability Curve: Modeling the Practical Application of Threshold-Guided Decision-Making, Evaluated in Lung, Prostate, and Ovarian Cancers.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic prediction models are useful guides when considering lesions suspicious for cancer, as they provide a quantitative estimate of the probability that a lesion is malignant. However, the decision to intervene ultimately rests on patient and physician preferences. The appropriate intervention in many clinical situations is typically defined by clinically relevant, actionable subgroups based upon the probability of malignancy. However, the "all-or-nothing" approach of threshold-based decisions is in practice incorrect. METHODS: Here, we present a novel approach to understanding clinical decision-making, the intervention probability curve (IPC). The IPC models the likelihood that an intervention will be chosen as a continuous function of the probability of disease. We propose the cumulative distribution function as a suitable model. The IPC is explored using the National Lung Screening Trial and the Prostate Lung Colorectal and Ovarian Screening Trial datasets. RESULTS: Fitting the IPC results in a continuous curve as a function of pretest probability of cancer with high correlation (R2 > 0.97 for each) with fitted parameters closely aligned with professional society guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: The IPC allows analysis of intervention decisions in a continuous, rather than threshold-based, approach to further understand the role of biomarkers and risk models in clinical practice. IMPACT: We propose that consideration of IPCs will yield significant insights into the practical relevance of threshold-based management strategies and could provide a novel method to estimate the actual clinical utility of novel biomarkers.

Integrated Biomarkers for the Management of Indeterminate Pulmonary Nodules.

Rationale: Patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) at risk of cancer undergo high rates of invasive, costly, and morbid procedures. Objectives: To train and externally validate a risk prediction model that combined clinical, blood, and imaging biomarkers to improve the noninvasive management of IPNs. Methods: In this prospectively collected, retrospective blinded evaluation study, probability of cancer was calculated for 456 patient nodules using the Mayo Clinic model, and patients were categorized into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. A combined biomarker model (CBM) including clinical variables, serum high sensitivity CYFRA 21-1 level, and a radiomic signature was trained in cohort 1 (n = 170) and validated in cohorts 2-4 (total n = 286). All patients were pooled to recalibrate the model for clinical implementation. The clinical utility of the CBM compared with current clinical care was evaluated in 2 cohorts. Measurements and Main Results: The CBM provided improved diagnostic accuracy over the Mayo Clinic model with an improvement in area under the curve of 0.124 (95% bootstrap confidence interval, 0.091-0.156; P < 2 × 10-16). Applying 10% and 70% risk thresholds resulted in a bias-corrected clinical reclassification index for cases and control subjects of 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. A clinical utility analysis of patient medical records estimated that a CBM-guided strategy would have reduced invasive procedures from 62.9% to 50.6% in the intermediate-risk benign population and shortened the median time to diagnosis of cancer from 60 to 21 days in intermediate-risk cancers. Conclusions: Integration of clinical, blood, and image biomarkers improves noninvasive diagnosis of patients with IPNs, potentially reducing the rate of unnecessary invasive procedures while shortening the time to diagnosis.

HLA-DR cancer cells expression correlates with T cell infiltration and is enriched in lung adenocarcinoma with indolent behavior.

Lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) is a heterogeneous group of tumors associated with different survival rates, even when detected at an early stage. Here, we aim to investigate whether CyTOF identifies cellular and molecular predictors of tumor behavior. We developed and validated a CyTOF panel of 34 antibodies in four ADC cell lines and PBMC. We tested our panel in a set of 10 ADCs, classified into long- (LPS) (n = 4) and short-predicted survival (SPS) (n = 6) based on radiomics features. We identified cellular subpopulations of epithelial cancer cells (ECC) and their microenvironment and validated our results by multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) applied to a tissue microarray (TMA) of LPS and SPS ADCs. The antibody panel captured the phenotypical differences in ADC cell lines and PBMC. LPS ADCs had a higher proportion of immune cells. ECC clusters (ECCc) were identified and uncovered two ADC groups. ECCc with high HLA-DR expression were correlated with CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, with LPS samples being enriched for those clusters. We confirmed a positive correlation between HLA-DR expression on ECC and T cell number by mIF staining on TMA slides. Spatial analysis demonstrated shorter distances from T cells to the nearest ECC in LPS. Our results demonstrate a distinctive cellular profile of ECC and their microenvironment in ADC. We showed that HLA-DR expression in ECC is correlated with T cell infiltration, and that a set of ADCs with high abundance of HLA-DR+ ECCc and T cells is enriched in LPS samples. This suggests new insights into the role of antigen presenting tumor cells in tumorigenesis.