Predictive factors of clot propagation in patients with superficial venous thrombosis towards deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: A subset of patients with superficial venous thrombosis (SVT) experiences clot propagation towards deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and/or pulmonary embolism (PE). The aim of this systematic review is to identify all clinically relevant cross-sectional and prognostic factors for predicting thrombotic complications in patients with SVT. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: PubMed/MEDLINE and Embase were systematically searched until 3 March 2023. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Original research studies with patients with SVT, DVT and/or PE as the outcome and presenting cross-sectional or prognostic predictive factors. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS OF RESULTS: The CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling (CHARMS) checklist for prognostic factor studies was used for systematic extraction of study characteristics. Per identified predictive factor, relevant estimates of univariable and multivariable predictor-outcome associations were extracted, such as ORs and HRs. Estimates of association for the most frequently reported predictors were summarised in forest plots, and meta-analyses with heterogeneity were presented. The Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool was used for risk of bias assessment and Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) for assessing the certainty of evidence. RESULTS: Twenty-two studies were included (n=10 111 patients). The most reported predictive factors were high age, male sex, history of venous thromboembolism (VTE), absence of varicose veins and cancer. Pooled effect estimates were heterogenous and ranged from OR 3.12 (95% CI 1.75 to 5.59) for the cross-sectional predictor cancer to OR 0.92 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.53) for the prognostic predictor high age. The level of evidence was rated very low to low. Most studies were scored high or moderate risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Although the pooled estimates of the predictors high age, male sex, history of VTE, cancer and absence of varicose veins showed predictive potential in isolation, variability in study designs, lack of multivariable adjustment and high risk of bias prevent firm conclusions. High-quality, multivariable studies are necessary to be able to identify individual SVT risk profiles. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021262819.

Prognostic factors and prediction models for hospitalisation and all-cause mortality in adults presenting to primary care with a lower respiratory tract infection: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and synthesise relevant existing prognostic factors (PF) and prediction models (PM) for hospitalisation and all-cause mortality within 90 days in primary care patients with acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI). DESIGN: Systematic review. METHODS: Systematic searches of MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library were performed. All PF and PM studies on the risk of hospitalisation or all-cause mortality within 90 days in adult primary care LRTI patients were included. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool and Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool tools for PF and PM studies, respectively. The results of included PF and PM studies were descriptively summarised. RESULTS: Of 2799 unique records identified, 16 were included: 9 PF studies, 6 PM studies and 1 combination of both. The risk of bias was judged high for all studies, mainly due to limitations in the analysis domain. Based on reported multivariable associations in PF studies, increasing age, sex, current smoking, diabetes, a history of stroke, cancer or heart failure, previous hospitalisation, influenza vaccination (negative association), current use of systemic corticosteroids, recent antibiotic use, respiratory rate ≥25/min and diagnosis of pneumonia were identified as most promising candidate predictors. One newly developed PM was externally validated (c statistic 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78) whereas the previously hospital-derived CRB-65 was externally validated in primary care in five studies (c statistic ranging from 0.72 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.81) to 0.79 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.92)). None of the PM studies reported measures of model calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of existing models for individualised risk prediction of 90-day hospitalisation or mortality in primary care LRTI patients in everyday practice is hampered by incomplete assessment of model performance. The identified candidate predictors provide useful information for clinicians and warrant consideration when developing or updating PMs using state-of-the-art development and validation techniques. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022341233.

Association of mild kidney dysfunction with diastolic dysfunction and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

AIMS: We aim to investigate the association between kidney dysfunction and left ventricular diastolic dysfunction parameters and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and whether this is sex-specific. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included participants from the HELPFul observational study. Outpatient clinical care data, including echocardiography, and an expert panel judgement on HFpEF was collected. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated by creatinine and cystatin C without race. The association between eGFR with E/e', left ventricular mass index, relative wall thickness, and stage C/D heart failure was tested by multivariable adjusted regression models, stratified by sex, reporting odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% confidence interval). We analysed 880 participants, mean age 62.9 (standard deviation: 9.3) years, 69% female. Four hundred six participants had mild (37.6%) kidney dysfunction (eGFR: 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 ) or moderate (8.5%) kidney dysfunction (eGFR: 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m2 ). HFpEF was significantly more prevalent in participants with mild and moderate kidney dysfunction (10.3% and 16.0%, respectively) than participants with normal kidney function (3.4%). A lower kidney function was associated with higher E/e' and higher relative wall thickness values. Participants with moderate kidney dysfunction had a higher likelihood of American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association stage C/D HF (odds ratio: 2.07, 95% confidence interval: 1.23, 3.49) than participants with normal kidney functions. CONCLUSIONS: Both mild and moderate kidney dysfunction are independently associated with left ventricular diastolic dysfunction parameters and HFpEF. This association is independent of sex and strongest for moderate kidney dysfunction. Considering mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction as risk factor for HFpEF may help identify high-risk groups benefiting most from early intervention.

Relative fat mass and prediction of incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure and coronary artery disease in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Relative fat mass (RFM) is an emerging marker of obesity that estimates body fat percentage using a sex-specific formula containing height and waist circumference (WC). We studied the association of RFM with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), and coronary artery disease (CAD) and explored RFM cutoffs for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction. METHODS: We studied 95,003 participants (age 45 ± 13 years, 59% women) without prevalent AF, HF or CAD from the population-based Lifelines study. Outcomes were ascertained using electrocardiography and self-reported questionnaire data. We used logistic regression to study the association of RFM with individual outcomes and a composite outcome (incident AF, HF, and/or CAD). Multivariable models were adjusted for components of the SCORE risk model (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, and smoking). Optimal cutoffs were determined using the Youden index. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.8 (3.0-4.6) years, 224 (0.2%) participants developed AF, 1003 (1.1%) HF and 657 (0.7%) CAD. After multivariable adjustment, RFM was significantly associated with all outcomes (standardised OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.18-1.34 for the composite outcome). Optimal RFM cutoffs ( ≥26 for men, ≥38 for women) were lower than previously proposed RFM cutoffs ( ≥30 for men, ≥40 for women). In general, overall discriminative ability of RFM and its cutoffs was at least similar (in women) or better (in men) compared to BMI and WC. Since RFM was substantially correlated with age, we additionally determined age-specific cutoffs, which ranged from 23 to 27 in men and 33 to 43 in women. CONCLUSIONS: RFM is associated with incident AF, HF, and CAD and may be used as a simple and intuitive marker of obesity and cardiovascular risk in the general population. This study provides potential RFM cutoffs for CVD prediction that may be used by future studies or preventive strategies targeting obesity and cardiovascular risk.

Evaluation of SGLT-2 inhibitor treatment in type 2 diabetes patients with very high cardiovascular risk.

AIMS: To evaluate whether the prescription of SGLT2-inhibitors in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and a very high risk was according to the newest updated Dutch general practitioners' practice guidelines on T2DM. METHODS: This observational study with routine care data was conducted in a primary care setting in the Netherlands. The very high-risk population size was identified and analyzed via descriptive statistics. In this high-risk group the percentage of patients treated with SGLT2-inhibitors was assessed. RESULTS: Of the 1492 T2DM patients managed in primary care, 475 (31.8%) were classified as very high-risk based on (a history of) ischemic cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and/or heart failure. Of the very high-risk patients, 49 (10.3%) received SGLT2-inhibitors conform the guidelines. Of the remaining 426 high-risk patients 334 (70.3%) had no contraindication (eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m2 or HbA1c <53 mmol/mol) for initiating SGLT2-i prescription according to the guidelines. None of these patients received an GLP-1 agonist as alternative. CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of very high-risk type 2 diabetes patients were not prescribed SGLT2-I. There is substantial room for improvement in the management of these critical T2DM patients because most of them had no contraindications for initiating SGLT2-I prescription.

Evaluation of the cardiac amyloidosis clinical pathway implementation: a real-world experience.

Aims: The aim of this study is to evaluate the implementation of the cardiac amyloidosis (CA) clinical pathway on awareness among referring cardiologists, diagnostic delay, and severity of CA at diagnosis. Methods and results: Patients with CA were retrospectively included in this study and divided into two periods: pre-implementation of the CA clinical pathway (2007-18; T1) and post-implementation (2019-20; T2). Patients' and disease characteristics were extracted from electronic health records and compared. In total, 113 patients (mean age 67.8 ± 8.5 years, 26% female) were diagnosed with CA [T1 (2007-18): 56; T2 (2019-20): 57]. The number of CA diagnoses per year has increased over time. Reasons for referral changed over time, with increased awareness of right ventricular hypertrophy (9% in T1 vs. 36% in T2) and unexplained heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (22% in T1 vs. 38% in T2). Comparing T1 with T2, the diagnostic delay also improved (14 vs. 8 months, P < 0.01), New York Heart Association Class III (45% vs. 23%, P = 0.03), and advanced CA stage (MAYO/Gillmore Stage III/IV; 61% vs. 33%, P ≤ 0.01) at time of diagnosis decreased. Conclusion: After implementation of the CA clinical pathway, the awareness among referring cardiologists improved, diagnostic delay was decreased, and patients had less severe CA at diagnosis. Further studies are warranted to assess the prognostic impact of CA clinical pathway implementation.

Improving early diagnosis of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes and COPD: protocol of the RED-CVD cluster randomised diagnostic trial.

INTRODUCTION: The early stages of chronic progressive cardiovascular disease (CVD) generally cause non-specific symptoms that patients often do not spontaneously mention to their general practitioner, and are therefore easily missed. A proactive diagnostic strategy has the potential to uncover these frequently missed early stages, creating an opportunity for earlier intervention. This is of particular importance for chronic progressive CVDs with evidence-based therapies known to improve prognosis, such as ischaemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation and heart failure.Patients with type 2 diabetes or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at particularly high risk of developing CVD. In the current study, we will demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of screening these high-risk patients with our early diagnosis strategy, using tools that are readily available in primary care, such as symptom questionnaires (to be filled out by the patients themselves), natriuretic peptide measurement and electrocardiography. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Reviving the Early Diagnosis-CVD trial is a multicentre, cluster randomised diagnostic trial performed in primary care practices across the Netherlands. We aim to include 1300 (2×650) patients who participate in a primary care disease management programme for COPD or type 2 diabetes. Practices will be randomised to the intervention arm (performing the early diagnosis strategy during the routine visits that are part of the disease management programmes) or the control arm (care as usual). The main outcome is the number of newly detected cases with CVDs in both arms, and the subsequent therapies they received. Secondary endpoints include quality of life, cost-effectiveness and the added diagnostic value of family and reproductive history questionnaires and three (novel) biomarkers (high-sensitive troponin-I, growth differentiation factor-15 and suppressor of tumourigenicity 2). Finally newly initiated treatments will be compared in both groups. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol was approved by the Medical Ethical Committee of the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands. Results are expected in 2022 and will be disseminated through international peer-reviewed publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR7360.

Self-care of heart failure patients: practical management recommendations from the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology.

Self-care is essential in the long-term management of chronic heart failure. Heart failure guidelines stress the importance of patient education on treatment adherence, lifestyle changes, symptom monitoring and adequate response to possible deterioration. Self-care is related to medical and person-centred outcomes in patients with heart failure such as better quality of life as well as lower mortality and readmission rates. Although guidelines give general direction for self-care advice, health care professionals working with patients with heart failure need more specific recommendations. The aim of the management recommendations in this paper is to provide practical advice for health professionals delivering care to patients with heart failure. Recommendations for nutrition, physical activity, medication adherence, psychological status, sleep, leisure and travel, smoking, immunization and preventing infections, symptom monitoring, and symptom management are consistent with information from guidelines, expert consensus documents, recent evidence and expert opinion.

Integration of a palliative approach into heart failure care: a European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Association position paper.

The Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology has published a previous position paper and various guidelines over the past decade recognizing the value of palliative care for those affected by this burdensome condition. Integrating palliative care into evidence-based heart failure management remains challenging for many professionals, as it includes the identification of palliative care needs, symptom control, adjustment of drug and device therapy, advance care planning, family and informal caregiver support, and trying to ensure a 'good death'. This new position paper aims to provide day-to-day practical clinical guidance on these topics, supporting the coordinated provision of palliation strategies as goals of care fluctuate along the heart failure disease trajectory. The specific components of palliative care for symptom alleviation, spiritual and psychosocial support, and the appropriate modification of guideline-directed treatment protocols, including drug deprescription and device deactivation, are described for the chronic, crisis and terminal phases of heart failure.

Sex-specific microRNAs in women with diabetes and left ventricular diastolic dysfunction or HFpEF associate with microvascular injury.

Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) are microcirculation defects following diabetes mellitus (DM). Unrecognized HFpEF is more prevalent in women with diabetes compared to men with diabetes and therefore sex-specific diagnostic strategies are needed. Previously, we demonstrated altered plasma miRs in DM patients with microvascular injury [defined by elevated plasma Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) levels]. This study hypothesized the presence of sex-differences in plasma miRs and Ang-2 in diabetic (female) patients with LVDD or HFpEF. After a pilot study, we assessed 16 plasma miRs in patients with LVDD (n = 122), controls (n = 244) and female diabetic patients (n = 10). Subsequently, among these miRs we selected and measured plasma miR-34a, -224 and -452 in diabetic HFpEF patients (n = 53) and controls (n = 52). In LVDD patients, miR-34a associated with Ang-2 levels (R2 0.04, R = 0.21, p = 0.001, 95% CI 0.103-0.312), with plasma levels being diminished in patients with DM, while women with an eGFR < 60 ml/min and LVDD had lower levels of miR-34a, -224 and -452 compared to women without an eGFR < 60 ml/min without LVDD. In diabetic HFpEF women (n = 28), plasma Ang-2 levels and the X-chromosome located miR-224/452 cluster increased compared to men. We conclude that plasma miR-34a, -224 and -452 display an association with the microvascular injury marker Ang-2 and are particularly targeted to women with LVDD or HFpEF.

Proactive screening for symptoms: A simple method to improve early detection of unrecognized cardiovascular disease in primary care. Results from the Lifelines Cohort Study.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) often goes unrecognized, despite symptoms frequently being present. Proactive screening for symptoms might improve early recognition and prevent disease progression or acute cardiovascular events. We studied the diagnostic value of symptoms for the detection of unrecognized atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), and coronary artery disease (CAD) and developed a corresponding screening questionnaire. We included 100,311 participants (mean age 52 ± 9 years, 58% women) from the population-based Lifelines Cohort Study. For each outcome (unrecognized AF/HF/CAD), we built a multivariable model containing demographics and symptoms. These models were combined into one 'three-disease' diagnostic model and questionnaire for all three outcomes. Results were validated in Lifelines participants with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Unrecognized CVD was identified in 1325 participants (1.3%): AF in 131 (0.1%), HF in 599 (0.6%), and CAD in 687 (0.7%). Added to age, sex, and body mass index, palpitations were independent predictors for unrecognized AF; palpitations, chest pain, dyspnea, exercise intolerance, health-related stress, and self-expected health worsening for unrecognized HF; smoking, chest pain, exercise intolerance, and claudication for unrecognized CAD. Area under the curve for the combined diagnostic model was 0.752 (95% CI 0.737-0.766) in the total population and 0.757 (95% CI 0.734-0.781) in participants with COPD and DM. At the chosen threshold, the questionnaire had low specificity, but high sensitivity. In conclusion, a short questionnaire about demographics and symptoms can improve early detection of CVD and help pre-select people who should or should not undergo further screening for CVD.

Opportunistic screening versus usual care for diagnosing atrial fibrillation in general practice: a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of stroke, heart failure, and all-cause mortality. AF may be asymptomatic and therefore remain undiagnosed. Devices such as single-lead electrocardiographs (ECGs) may help GPs to diagnose AF. AIM: To investigate the yield of opportunistic screening for AF in usual primary care using a single-lead ECG device. DESIGN AND SETTING: A clustered, randomised controlled trial among patients aged ≥65 years with no recorded AF status in the Netherlands from October 2014 to March 2016. METHOD: Fifteen intervention general practices used a single-lead ECG device at their discretion and 16 control practices offered usual care. The follow-up period was 1 year, and the primary outcome was the proportion of newly diagnosed cases of AF. RESULTS: In total, 17 107 older people with no recorded AF status were eligible to participate in the study. In the intervention arm, 10.7% of eligible patients (n = 919) were screened over the duration of the study year. The rate of newly diagnosed AF was similar in the intervention and control practices (1.43% versus 1.37%, P = 0.73). Screened patients were more likely to have comorbidities, such as hypertension (60.0% versus 48.7%), type 2 diabetes (24.3% versus 18.6%), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (11.3% versus 7.4%), than eligible patients not screened in the intervention arm. Among patients with newly diagnosed AF in intervention practices, 27% were detected by screening, 23% by usual primary care, and 50% by a medical specialist or after stroke/transient ischaemic attack. CONCLUSION: Opportunistic screening with a single-lead ECG at the discretion of the GP did not result in a higher yield of newly detected cases of AF in patients aged ≥65 years in the community than usual care. For higher participation rates in future studies, more rigorous screening methods are needed.

Age at menarche and heart failure risk: The EPIC-NL study.

AIMS: Early age at menarche has been reported to be associated with increased risks of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in adulthood, but a late menarche has also been found to be associated with an increased risk of CHD. Both T2D and CHD are important risk factors for developing heart failure (HF). We examined the relationship between age at menarche (AAM) and HF incidence in women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition - Netherlands (EPIC-NL) cohort study. METHODS AND RESULTS: The EPIC-NL cohort comprised 28,504 women aged 20-70 years at baseline (1993-1997). Mean age at menarche was 13.3 (standard deviation 1.6) years. During a median follow-up of 15.2 years HF occurred in 631 women. Cox proportional hazard regression models, stratified by cohort and adjusted for potential confounders, were used to investigate the associations between AAM and HF incidence. After confounder adjustment, each year of older age at menarche was associated with a 5% lower risk of HF (hazard ratio 0.95 (95% CI, 0.91-1.00), p-value 0.048). Further adjusting for body mass index (BMI), prevalent CHD, hypertension, or prevalent T2D as potential mediators between early menarche and risk of HF attenuated the associations between AAM and risk of HF to non-significance. CONCLUSION: Older AAM reduced the risk of HF in this study. BMI, prevalent CHD, hypertension and prevalent T2D seemed to mediate this association. Future research with a longer follow-up should establish whether there is an independent effect of AAM on HF risk. Also, further phenotyping of HF cases is necessary to enable whether the associations differ for the various subtypes of HF.

Opportunistic screening models for high-risk men and women to detect diastolic dysfunction and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in the community.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of undetected left ventricular diastolic dysfunction is high, especially in the elderly with comorbidities. Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction is a prognostic indicator of heart failure, in particularly of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and of future cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Therefore we aimed to develop sex-specific diagnostic models to enable the early identification of men and women at high-risk of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction with or without symptoms of heart failure who require more aggressive preventative strategies. DESIGN: Individual patient data from four primary care heart failure-screening studies were analysed (1371 participants, excluding patients classified as heart failure and left ventricular ejection fraction <50%). METHODS: Eleven candidate predictors were entered into logistic regression models to be associated with the presence of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction/heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in men and women separately. Internal-external cross-validation was performed to develop and validate the models. RESULTS: Increased age and ß-blocker therapy remained as predictors in both the models for men and women. The model for men additionally consisted of increased body mass index, moderate to severe shortness of breath, increased pulse pressure and history of ischaemic heart disease. The models performed moderately and similarly well in men (c-statistics range 0.60-0.75) and women (c-statistics range 0.51-0.76) and the performance improved significantly following the addition of N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (c-statistics range 0.61-0.80 in women and 0.68-0.80 in men). CONCLUSIONS: We provide an easy-to-use screening tool for use in the community, which can improve the early detection of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction/heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in high-risk men and women and optimise tailoring of preventive interventions.

Efficient selective screening for heart failure in elderly men and women from the community: A diagnostic individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background Prevalence of undetected heart failure in older individuals is high in the community, with patients being at increased risk of morbidity and mortality due to the chronic and progressive nature of this complex syndrome. An essential, yet currently unavailable, strategy to pre-select candidates eligible for echocardiography to confirm or exclude heart failure would identify patients earlier, enable targeted interventions and prevent disease progression. The aim of this study was therefore to develop and validate such a model that can be implemented clinically. Methods and results Individual patient data from four primary care screening studies were analysed. From 1941 participants >60 years old, 462 were diagnosed with heart failure, according to criteria of the European Society of Cardiology heart failure guidelines. Prediction models were developed in each cohort followed by cross-validation, omitting each of the four cohorts in turn. The model consisted of five independent predictors; age, history of ischaemic heart disease, exercise-related shortness of breath, body mass index and a laterally displaced/broadened apex beat, with no significant interaction with sex. The c-statistic ranged from 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64-0.76) to 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.87) at cross-validation and the calibration was reasonable with Observed/Expected ratios ranging from 0.86 to 1.15. The clinical model improved with the addition of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide with the c-statistic increasing from 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.81) to 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.92) at cross-validation. Conclusion Easily obtainable patient characteristics can select older men and women from the community who are candidates for echocardiography to confirm or refute heart failure.