MAVMET trial: maraviroc and/or metformin for metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease(MAFLD) in adults with suppressed HIV.

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is over-represented in people living with HIV (PLWH). Maraviroc (MVC) and/or metformin (MET) may reduce MAFLD by influencing inflammatory pathways and fatty acid metabolism. DESIGN: Open-label, 48-week randomised trial with a 2x2 factorial design. SETTING: Multicentre HIV clinics. PARTICIPANTS: Nondiabetic, virologically-suppressed PLWH, aged ≥35 years, with confirmed/suspected MAFLD (≥1 biochemical/anthropometric/radiological/histological features). INTERVENTION: Adjunctive MVC; MET; MVC+MET vs. antiretroviral therapy (ART) alone. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Change in liver fat fraction (LFF) between baseline and week-48 using Magnetic Resonance Proton Density Fat Fraction (MR PDFF). RESULTS: Six sites enrolled 90 participants (93% male; 81% white; median age 52 [interquartile range, IQR 47-57] years) between 19-Mar-2018 and 11-November-2019. 70% had imaging/biopsy plus ≥1 MAFLD criteria. The analysis included 82/90 with week-0 and -48 scans. Median baseline MR PDFF was 8.9 (4.6-17.1); 40%, 38%, 8%, and 14% had grade zero, one, two, and three steatosis respectively. Mean LFF increased slightly between baseline and follow-up scans: 2.22% MVC, 1.26% MET, 0.81% MVC+MET, and 1.39% ART alone. Prolonged intervention exposure (delayed week-48 scans) exhibited greater increases in MR PDFF (estimated difference 4.23% [95% CI 2.97, 5.48], P < 0.001). There were no differences in predicted change for any intervention compared to ART alone: MVC (-0.42% [95% CI -1.53-0.68, P = 0.45]), MET (-0.62 [-1.81-0.56, P = 0.30]), and MVC+MET (-1.04 [-2.74-0.65, P = 0.23]). Steatosis grade remained unchanged in 55% and increased in 24%. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline levels of liver fat were lower than predicted. Contrary to our hypothesis, neither MVC, MET, or the combination significantly reduced MR PDFF compared to ART alone.

Mortality rates among patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify mortality rates for patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals and compare these rates with those of the general population. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: British Columbia, Scotland, and England (England cohort consists of patients with cirrhosis only). PARTICIPANTS: 21 790 people who were successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals (2014-19). Participants were divided into three liver disease severity groups: people without cirrhosis (pre-cirrhosis), those with compensated cirrhosis, and those with end stage liver disease. Follow-up started 12 weeks after antiviral treatment completion and ended on date of death or 31 December 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age-sex standardised mortality rates, and standardised mortality ratio comparing the number of deaths with that of the general population, adjusting for age, sex, and year. Poisson regression was used to identify factors associated with all cause mortality rates. RESULTS: 1572 (7%) participants died during follow-up. The leading causes of death were drug related mortality (n=383, 24%), liver failure (n=286, 18%), and liver cancer (n=250, 16%). Crude all cause mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person years) were 31.4 (95% confidence interval 29.3 to 33.7), 22.7 (20.7 to 25.0), and 39.6 (35.4 to 44.3) for cohorts from British Columbia, Scotland, and England, respectively. All cause mortality was considerably higher than the rate for the general population across all disease severity groups and settings; for example, all cause mortality was three times higher among people without cirrhosis in British Columbia (standardised mortality ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.71 to 3.23; P<0.001) and more than 10 times higher for patients with end stage liver disease in British Columbia (13.61, 11.94 to 15.49; P<0.001). In regression analyses, older age, recent substance misuse, alcohol misuse, and comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates among people successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals are high compared with the general population. Drug and liver related causes of death were the main drivers of excess mortality. These findings highlight the need for continued support and follow-up after successful treatment for hepatitis C to maximise the impact of direct acting antivirals.

Outcomes of National Survey of the Practice of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance.

Background & Aim: HCC has significantly improved outcomes when detected early. Guidelines recommend biannual surveillance with ultrasound (US) and/or AFP in at-risk individuals. This survey aimed to describe HCC surveillance adherence/practices amongst the NHS hospitals in the UK. Methods: An electronic survey was sent to 79 NHS hospitals via the British Association for the Study of the Liver distribution list. The responses were captured from July 2021 to January 2022. Centres were divided into hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) and non-HPB centres, depending on whether the hospital undertakes major liver surgeries. Results: A total of 39 (49.3%) centres responded: 15 HPB and 24 non-HPB centres from across the UK. HCC surveillance eligibility criteria were universally applied, but heterogeneous approaches occur outside these criteria. Eighty per cent of patients undergoing surveillance were estimated to have cirrhosis. Eighty-five per cent of centres do 6-monthly US and AFP requested by clinicians and liver clinical nurse specialists. Compliance was estimated at 80% but not routinely audited. In most centres, general sonographers and/or radiologists perform surveillance US scans without a standard reporting template, although structured reporting was viewed as desirable by the majority. Poor views on US are approached heterogeneously, with patients variably offered ongoing US, CT, or MRI with different protocols. Conclusion: Most responding NHS hospitals follow 6-monthly HCC surveillance guidance. Data recording is variable, with limited routine data collection regarding compliance, yield, and quality. Surveillance US is mostly performed by non-HPB specialists without standardised reporting. There is an inconsistent approach to poor views with US surveillance. Even in a universal healthcare system such as NHS, which is free at the point of care, delivery of HCC surveillance has not improved over the last decade and remains variable.

Investigating potential confounding by indication when considering the association between proton pump inhibitor use, infection, hepatic encephalopathy and mortality in hospitalised decompensated cirrhosis: a post-hoc analysis of the ATTIRE trial.

Background: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are commonly prescribed to prevent and treat upper gastrointestinal ulceration and bleeding. Studies have identified increased incidence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in cirrhosis patients taking PPIs. However, results are conflicting, and as PPIs are prescribed for variceal bleeding, a major risk factor for infection and HE, it is challenging to discern whether these associations are causal. Methods: In this post-hoc analysis of the ATTIRE trial, we pooled all patient data to investigate the effects of PPI use on clinical outcomes. ATTIRE was a multicentre, open-label, randomised trial of targeted 20% human albumin solution (HAS) daily infusions versus standard care involving 777 adults with decompensated cirrhosis hospitalised with acute complications and albumin <30 g/L. Study recruitment was between Jan 25, 2016, and June 28, 2019, at 35 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Key exclusion criteria were advanced hepatocellular carcinoma with life expectancy <8 weeks and patients receiving palliative care. In ATTIRE, patients were grouped by PPI use at trial entry. We studied infection and HE at baseline and incidence of hospital acquired infection, new onset HE, renal dysfunction and mortality. We attempted with propensity score matching to account for differences in disease severity. Findings: Overall PPI use at baseline was not associated with increased incidence of infection, renal dysfunction or mortality, but was associated with significantly increased incidence of grade III/IV HE during hospital stay (P = 0.011). This was only significant for those taking intravenous PPIs and these patients had >10 times the incidence of variceal bleeding and near double the 28-day mortality compared to non-PPI patients. However, propensity score matching was not possible as there was such a strong selection of patients for PPI use, that we could not find sufficient non-PPI patients to match to. We found no impact of PPI use on plasma markers of bacterial translocation, infection or systemic inflammation. Interpretations: Our real-world data from a completed randomised trial show that PPIs are widely prescribed in the UK and judicious use appears safe in patients hospitalised with decompensated cirrhosis. However, patients prescribed PPIs had fundamentally different phenotypes to those not prescribed PPIs, a form of confounding by indication, which should be strongly considered when interpreting studies and making recommendations about their use. Funding: Wellcome Trust and Department of Health and Social Care.

Delivery of biannual ultrasound surveillance for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies show the uptake of biannual ultrasound (US) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis is suboptimal. Here, our goal was to understand in broader terms how surveillance is being delivered to cirrhosis patients with cured hepatitis C in the UK. METHODS: Hepatitis C cirrhosis patients achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) to antiviral therapies were identified from the national Hepatitis-C-Research-UK resource. Data on (i) liver/abdominal US examinations, (ii) HCC diagnoses, and (iii) HCC curative treatment were obtained through record-linkage to national health registries. The rate of US uptake was calculated by dividing the number of US episodes by follow-up time. RESULTS: A total of 1908 cirrhosis patients from 31 liver centres were followed for 3.8 (IQR: 3.4-4.9) years. Overall, 10 396 liver/abdominal USs were identified. The proportion with biannual US was 19% in the first 3 years after SVR and 9% for all follow-up years. Higher uptake of biannual US was associated with attending a liver transplant centre; older age and cirrhosis decompensation. Funnel plot analysis indicated significant inter-centre variability in biannual US uptake, with 6/29 centres outside control limits. Incident HCC occurred in 133 patients, of which 49/133 (37%) were treated with curative intent. The number of US episodes in the two years prior to HCC diagnosis was significantly associated with higher odds of curative-intent treatment (aOR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.12-2,09; p = .007). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel data on the cascade of care for HCC in the UK. Our findings suggest biannual US is poorly targeted, inefficient and is not being delivered equitably to all patients.

Mapping of population disparities in the cholangiocarcinoma urinary metabolome.

Phenotypic diversity in urinary metabolomes of different geographical populations has been recognized recently. In this study, urinary metabolic signatures from Western (United Kingdom) and South-East Asian (Thai) cholangiocarcinoma patients were characterized to understand spectral variability due to host carcinogenic processes and/or exogenous differences (nutritional, environmental and pharmaceutical). Urinary liquid chromatography mass spectroscopy (LC-MS) spectral profiles from Thai (healthy = 20 and cholangiocarcinoma = 14) and UK cohorts (healthy = 22 and cholangiocarcinoma = 10) were obtained and modelled using chemometric data analysis. Healthy metabolome disparities between the two distinct populations were primarily related to differences in dietary practices and body composition. Metabolites excreted due to drug treatment were dominant in urine specimens from cholangiocarcinoma patients, particularly in Western individuals. Urine from participants with sporadic (UK) cholangiocarcinoma contained greater levels of a nucleotide metabolite (uridine/pseudouridine). Higher relative concentrations of 7-methylguanine were observed in urine specimens from Thai cholangiocarcinoma patients. The urinary excretion of hippurate and methyladenine (gut microbial-host co-metabolites) showed a similar pattern of lower levels in patients with malignant biliary tumours from both countries. Intrinsic (body weight and body composition) and extrinsic (xenobiotic metabolism) factors were the main causes of disparities between the two populations. Regardless of the underlying aetiology, biological perturbations associated with cholangiocarcinoma urine metabolome signatures appeared to be influenced by gut microbial community metabolism. Dysregulation in nucleotide metabolism was associated with sporadic cholangiocarcinoma, possibly indicating differences in mitochondrial energy production pathways between cholangiocarcinoma tumour subtypes. Mapping population-specific metabolic disparities may aid in interpretation of disease processes and identification of candidate biomarkers.

Long-term outcomes of liver transplant recipients followed up in non-transplant centres: Care closer to home.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing rates of liver transplantation and improved outcomes have led to greater numbers of transplant recipients followed up in non-transplant centres. Our aim was to document long-term clinical outcomes of liver transplant recipients managed in this 'hub-and-spoke' healthcare model. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of all adult patients who underwent liver transplantation between 1987 and 2016, with post-transplant follow-up in two non-transplant centres in the UK (Nottingham) and Canada (Ottawa), was performed. RESULTS: The 1-, 5-, 10- and 20-year patient survival rates were 98%, 95%, 87% and 62%, and 100%, 96%, 88% and 62% in the Nottingham and Ottawa groups, respectively (p=0.87). There were no significant differences between the two centres in 1-, 5-, 10- and 20-year cumulative incidence of death-censored graft-survival (p=0.10), end-stage renal disease (p=0.29) or de novo cancer (p=0.22). Nottingham had a lower incidence of major cardiovascular events (p=0.008). CONCLUSION: Adopting a new model of healthcare provides a means of delivering post-transplant patient care close to home without compromising patient survival and long-term clinical outcomes.

Treatment with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate or entecavir in chronic hepatitis B virus-infected patients with renal impairment: results from a 7-year, multicentre retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist regarding tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) safety and effectiveness in chronic hepatitis B virus-infected (CHB) patients with renal impairment (RI). AIMS: To compare real-world data on renal safety and effectiveness of TDF vs entecavir (ETV) in CHB patients with moderate-to-severe RI. METHODS: Retrospective, non-interventional, cohort study analysing medical records for TDF/ETV-treated CHB patients (54 European centres). Included patients experienced moderate-to-severe RI (creatinine clearance 20-60 mL/min [Cockcroft-Gault]) either before TDF/ETV initiation ('before' subgroup [baseline = treatment initiation]) or after TDF/ETV initiation ('after' subgroup [baseline = first RI occurrence]). The primary objective was TDF safety, particularly renal-related adverse events of special interest (AESI). TDF and ETV safety and effectiveness were compared and multivariate analyses were performed using inverse probability treatment weighting. RESULTS: 'Before' subgroup included 107 TDF- and 91 ETV-treated patients; 'after' subgroup included 212 TDF- and 77 ETV-treated patients. Mean baseline creatinine clearance was higher for TDF- vs ETV-treated patients (both subgroups). Median follow-up was 3.1 years (both treatments). AESI were more frequent with TDF vs ETV ('before': 18.7% vs 8.8%; 'after': 9.9% vs 3.9%); however, differences were not significant by multivariate analysis. Only TDF-treated patients experienced renal tubular dysfunction (6.5% 'before'; 1.9% 'after') as well as renal adverse events leading to treatment discontinuation (8.4% 'before'; 7.1% 'after'). Effectiveness was similar between treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Overall safety was similar for TDF vs ETV (both subgroups). Given that renal tubular dysfunction occurred with TDF and not with ETV, renal safety concerns may be greater with TDF in CHB patients with RI.

Long-Term Obeticholic Acid Therapy Improves Histological Endpoints in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is an autoimmune disease characterized by bile duct destruction that can progress to cirrhosis. A liver biopsy substudy was conducted in the PBC obeticholic acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) to determine the long-term effects of OCA on liver damage and fibrosis in patients with PBC. POISE is a phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial with a 5-year open-label extension that evaluated 5 to 10 mg OCA daily in patients who were intolerant or unresponsive to ursodeoxycholic acid. METHODS: Liver biopsy specimens were collected from 17 patients at time of enrollment in the double-blind phase and after 3 years of OCA treatment. Histologic evaluations were performed by 2 pathologists in a blinded, randomized fashion to determine the effects of OCA on fibrosis and other histologic parameters. Collagen morphometry assessments were performed by automated second harmonic generation and 2-photon excitation microscopy to observe quantitative measures of fibrosis. RESULTS: From the time of enrollment until 3 years of treatment, most patients had improvements or stabilization in fibrosis (71%), bile duct loss (76%), ductopenia (82%), ductular reaction (82%), interface hepatitis (100%), and lobular hepatitis (94%). Over the 3-year period, we found significant reductions in collagen area ratio (median, -2.1; first quartile, -4.6, third quartile, -0.3; P = .013), collagen fiber density (median, -0.8; first quartile, -2.5; third quartile, 0; P = .021), collagen reticulation index (median, -0.1; first quartile, -0.3; third quartile, 0; P = .008), and fibrosis composite score (median, -1.0; first quartile, -2.5; third quartile, -0.5; P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: A subanalysis of data from the POISE study showed that long-term OCA treatment in patients with PBC is associated with improvements or stabilization of disease features, including ductular injury, fibrosis, and collagen morphometry features (ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01473524 and EudraCT no: 2011-004728-36).

Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir in patients with chronic HCV genotype 3 infection: An integrated phase 2/3 analysis.

Glecaprevir coformulated with pibrentasvir (G/P) is approved to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and was highly efficacious in phase 2 and 3 studies. Treating HCV genotype (GT) 3 infection remains a priority, as these patients are harder to cure and at a greater risk for liver steatosis, fibrosis progression and hepatocellular carcinoma. Data were pooled from five phase 2 or 3 trials that evaluated 8-, 12- and 16-week G/P in patients with chronic HCV GT3 infection. Patients without cirrhosis or with compensated cirrhosis were either treatment-naïve or experienced with interferon- or sofosbuvir-based regimens. Safety and sustained virologic response 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12) were assessed. The analysis included 693 patients with GT3 infection. SVR12 was achieved by 95% of treatment-naïve patients without cirrhosis receiving 8-week (198/208) and 12-week (280/294) G/P. Treatment-naïve patients with cirrhosis had a 97% (67/69) SVR12 rate with 12-week G/P. Treatment-experienced, noncirrhotic patients had SVR12 rates of 90% (44/49) and 95% (21/22) with 12- and 16-week G/P, respectively; 94% (48/51) of treatment-experienced patients with cirrhosis treated for 16 weeks achieved SVR12. No serious adverse events (AEs) were attributed to G/P; AEs leading to study drug discontinuation were rare (<1%). G/P was well-tolerated and efficacious for patients with chronic HCV GT3 infection, regardless of cirrhosis status or prior treatment experience. Eight- and 12-week durations were efficacious for treatment-naïve patients without cirrhosis and with compensated cirrhosis, respectively; 16-week G/P was efficacious in patients with prior treatment experience irrespective of cirrhosis status.

Healthcare costs of transarterial chemoembolization in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: A meta-analysis comparing drug-eluting beads transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) with conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) has recently been published. On balance, no significant differences were found in terms of objective response and overall survival. The impact on healthcare costs had been studied in small series based on a hypothetical model and was in favor of DEB-TACE. We aimed to evaluate and compare health-care costs and effectiveness of both modalities in a cohort of patients from Nottingham, UK. METHODS: Using a dedicated radiology database, we identified all patients who had undergone cTACE or DEB-TACE between 2006 and 2012 at a single tertiary referral center based in Nottingham. We collected clinical data, including treatment response, postprocedure complications and 30-day mortality. Costing models were constructed to present both our local hospital perspective as well as the national health service position. RESULTS: During our study period, 101 procedures were performed on 43 patients (76 cTACE procedures on 26 patients and 25 DEB-TACE procedures on 17 patients). Overall, 11/26 in cTACE and 5/17 in DEB-TACE group had progressive disease (p=0.52). Adverse events were seen in 6/76 cTACE compared with 7/25 DEB-TACE group (p=0.16). Based on the predetermined standard pathway there was an unadjusted average cost difference of £3770.30 (TACE =£9070.44, DEB-TACE =£5300.14) in favor of the DEB-TACE. Results from our costing models indicated a £2715.33 (95% CI £580.88-4849.77) cost difference in favor of the same procedure. CONCLUSIONS: Even when the extra costs of DEB-TACE were considered, the overall treatment costs per patient were lower in relation to cTACE.

Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma: patient selection and perspectives.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) develops on the background of liver cirrhosis often from multiple, simultaneous factors. The diagnosis of a single small HCC comes with good prognosis and provides a potential for cure. In contrast, the diagnosis of multifocal, large HCC has high mortality and poor prognosis. Unfortunately, the majority of HCC is diagnosed at such late stages. A surveillance program endorsed by regional liver societies involves six-monthly ultrasound surveillance of at-risk patients. This had been in action for the last two decades. It has led to marked increase in the proportion of patients presenting with small unifocal nodules found on surveillance. The development of tools to enhance our ability in optimizing available surveillance is likely to improve the prognosis of patients with HCC. In this review, we discuss the difficulties in utilizing HCC surveillance and possible means of improvement.

The diversity and management of chronic hepatitis B virus infections in the United Kingdom: a wake-up call.

BACKGROUND: Through migration, diversity of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection has changed, affecting disease burden and control. We describe clinical and viral characteristics of chronic HBV in the United Kingdom. METHODS: A total of 698 individuals with chronic HBV infection were recruited from referral liver centers. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. RESULTS: Sixty-one percent of patients were male, 80% were not born in the United Kingdom, and the largest ethnicity was East/Southeast Asian (36%). Twenty-two percent were hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seropositive; 20.4% (59/289) had cirrhosis and 10 (1.7%) had hepatocellular carcinoma. Genotype D was most common (31%) followed by A, C, B, and E (20%, 20%, 19%, and 9%, respectively). Genotype was significantly associated with country of birth, length of time in the United Kingdom, HBeAg status, and precore and basal core promoter mutations. One-third were on treatment, with men independently more likely to be treated. Only 18% of those on treatment were on recommended first-line therapies, and 30% were on lamivudine monotherapy. Among treated individuals, 27% had antiviral drug resistance. Testing rates for human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, and delta coinfections were low. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated diversity of chronic HBV infections in UK patients, suggesting that optimal management requires awareness of the variable patterns of chronic HBV in countries of origin. We also found less-than-optimal clinical management practices, possible gender-based treatment bias, and the need to improve testing for coinfections.

Validation of terminal peptide of procollagen III for the detection and assessment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

UNLABELLED: Liver biopsy is the reference standard for the detection of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) within nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The aim of this study was to identify a biomarker of NASH in patients without significant fibrosis. In all, 172 patients from two centers with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included in this study. Eighty-four patients from a single center were included as a derivation cohort and 88 patients from a second center were included as a validation cohort. Serum samples were tested for candidate markers of fibrosis and inflammation alongside hematological and biochemical markers. Among patients without advanced fibrosis, terminal peptide of procollagen III (PIIINP) was the only marker found to be associated with a histological diagnosis of NASH in both cohorts. PIIINP also correlated with the total NAFLD activity score (NAS) and its constituent components (P < 0.001). Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for PIIINP in discriminating between NASH and simple steatosis (SS) was 0.77-0.82 in patients with F0-2 fibrosis and 0.82-0.84 in patients with F0-3 fibrosis. PIIINP was elevated in patients with advanced fibrosis, the overwhelming majority of whom had NASH. When incorporating patients with all degrees of fibrosis from both cohorts, PIIINP was able to discriminate between patients with SS and those with NASH or advanced fibrosis with AUROC 0.85-0.87. CONCLUSION: PIIINP discriminates between SS and NASH or advanced fibrosis. The use of a single biomarker in this context will be of clinical utility in detecting the minority of patients with NAFLD who have NASH or advanced fibrosis related to NASH.

The utility of liver function tests for mortality prediction within one year in primary care using the algorithm for liver function investigations (ALFI).

BACKGROUND: Although liver function tests (LFTs) are routinely measured in primary care, raised levels in patients with no obvious liver disease may trigger a range of subsequent expensive and unnecessary management plans. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model to guide decision-making by general practitioners, which estimates risk of one year all-cause mortality in patients with no obvious liver disease. METHODS: In this population-based historical cohort study, biochemistry data from patients in Tayside, Scotland, with LFTs performed in primary care were record-linked to secondary care and prescription databases to ascertain baseline characteristics, and to mortality data. Using this derivation cohort a survival model was developed to predict mortality. The model was assessed for calibration, discrimination (using the C-statistic) and performance, and validated using a separate cohort of Scottish primary care practices. RESULTS: From the derivation cohort (n = 95 977), 2.7% died within one year. Predictors of mortality included: age; male gender; social deprivation; history of cancer, renal disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease or respiratory disease; statin use; and LFTs (albumin, transaminase, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, and gamma-glutamyltransferase). The C-statistic for the final model was 0.82 (95% CI 0.80-0.84), and was similar in the validation cohort (n = 11 653) 0.86 (0.79-0.90). As an example of performance, for a 10% predicted probability cut-off, sensitivity = 52.8%, specificity = 94.0%, PPV = 21.0%, NPV = 98.5%. For the model without LFTs the respective values were 43.8%, 92.8%, 15.6%, 98.1%. CONCLUSIONS: The Algorithm for Liver Function Investigations (ALFI) is the first model to successfully estimate the probability of all-cause mortality in patients with no apparent liver disease having LFTs in primary care. While LFTs added to the model's discrimination and sensitivity, the clinical utility of ALFI remains to be established since LFTs did not improve an already high NPV for short term mortality and only modestly improved a very low PPV.

Portal inflammation is associated with advanced histological changes in alcoholic and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Fatty liver disease (FLD), of either alcoholic (AFLD) or non-alcoholic (NAFLD) aetiologies, is characterised histologically by features that are lobulocentric that typically affect zone 3, in contrast with portal-based inflammation characteristics of other forms of chronic liver disease. AIM: The authors aimed to determine the prevalence and significance of portal inflammation in a cohort of adults diagnosed as having AFLD and NAFLD. METHODS: From a histology database, the authors identified 160 patients with biopsy proven AFLD and 214 with NAFLD diagnosed between 1991 and 2001. All liver biopsies were reviewed by one pathologist to evaluate various histological features. RESULTS: More than a mild degree of portal inflammation was found in 47% of AFLD compared with 30% in NAFLD subgroup. A higher degree of portal inflammation in AFLD was associated with a higher mean corpuscular volume, gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT) and alkaline phosphatase, and a lower platelet count and albumin, whereas in NAFLD this was associated with age, presence of diabetes, hypertension, body mass index (BMI), higher fasting blood glucose, cholesterol, alanine transaminase, GGT and ferritin. On regression analysis, portal inflammation was associated with the severity of steatosis (p=0.005), presence of ballooning (p=0.030) in NAFLD and severity of fibrosis in both AFLD and NAFLD (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Portal inflammation is a common component of histological spectrum of both AFLD and NAFLD. In both conditions portal inflammation is associated with clinical and histological features suggestive of advanced disease.

The natural history of hepatitis C with severe hepatic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To examine the morbidity and mortality of patients with severe fibrosis secondary to HCV infection, within a population unbiased by tertiary referral. METHODS: One hundred and fifty HCV infected patients were identified from the Trent HCV study with a liver biopsy taken before 2002 demonstrating severe fibrosis (Ishak stage > or =4). Follow-up data were extracted from the database and hospital records. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 51 months. Of the 131 patients with no prior history of decompensation, 33 (25%) died (n=25) or were transplanted (n=8), after a median interval of 42 months. The probability of survival without liver transplantation was 97%, 88%, and 78% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Hepatocellular carcinoma and/or decompensation was diagnosed in 33 (25%), after a median interval of 41 months. In multivariate analysis, combination antiviral therapy was associated with improved survival. Prognosis was not affected by the Ishak stage at index biopsy. There was a worse prognosis for the 19 patients with previous decompensation; 17 (89%) having either died (n=15) or been transplanted (n=2). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that severe liver fibrosis (Ishak stage > or = 4) secondary to hepatitis C is associated with a poor prognosis, that may be improved following combination antiviral treatment.

Mannan binding lectin and viral hepatitis.

Mannan binding lectin (MBL) is a pattern recognition molecule of the innate immune system that binds to sugars on the surface of invading micro-organisms. Target binding, complement activation and other functions of MBL are dependent on the presence of multiple carbohydrate recognition domains. Several polymorphisms in the promoter and structural regions of MBL2 adversely affect the plasma concentration and oligomeric state of MBL. The possession of mutant alleles has been linked to disease outcome for a variety of bacterial and viral infections. Viral hepatitis is caused by unrelated viruses referred to as hepatitis virus A-E. The disease usually has both acute and chronic phases, the latter leading to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatitis viruses B and C (HBV and HCV, respectively) are a significant cause of morbidity worldwide. HBV encodes envelope glycoproteins termed large, middle, and small that may exist in glycosylated or unglycosylated forms on the virion. An interaction between HBV glycoproteins and MBL has been demonstrated in vitro. Significant associations between MBL levels, determined by MBL2 haplotypes, and HBV persistence and disease progression have been described. HCV encodes two highly glycosylated envelope proteins, E1 and E2, which are potential targets for interaction with MBL. Mutant MBL2 haplotypes have been linked to disease progression and response to therapy in HCV infection. Here we summarise the effect of MBL2 polymorphisms on MBL function and how this may relate to disease outcome in HBV and HCV infection.