Childhood and Adolescent Central Nervous System Tumours in Spain: Incidence and Survival over 20 Years: A Historical Baseline for Current Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Central nervous system (CNS) neoplasms are highly frequent solid tumours in children and adolescents. While some studies have shown a rise in their incidence in Europe, others have not. Survival remains limited. We addressed two questions about these tumours in Spain: (1) Is incidence increasing? and (2) Has survival improved? METHODS: This population-based study included 1635 children and 328 adolescents from 11 population-based cancer registries with International Classification of Childhood Cancer Group III tumours, incident in 1983-2007. Age-specific and age-standardised (world population) incidence rates (ASRws) were calculated. Incidence time trends were characterised using annual percent change (APC) obtained with Joinpoint. Cases from 1991 to 2005 (1171) were included in Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, and the results were evaluated with log-rank and log-rank for trend tests. Children's survival was age-standardised using: (1) the age distribution of cases and the corresponding trends assessed with Joinpoint; and (2) European weights for comparison with Europe. RESULTS: ASRw 1983-2007: children: 32.7 cases/106; adolescents: 23.5 cases/106. The overall incidence of all tumours increased across 1983-2007 in children and adolescents. Considering change points, the APCs were: (1) children: 1983-1993, 4.3%^ (1.1; 7.7); 1993-2007, -0.2% (-1.9; 1.6); (2) adolescents: 1983-2004: 2.9%^ (0.9; 4.9); 2004-2007: -7.7% (-40; 41.9). For malignant tumours, the trends were not significant. 5-year survival was 65% (1991-2005), with no significant trends (except for non-malignant tumours). CONCLUSIONS: CNS tumour incidence in Spain was found to be similar to that in Europe. Rises in incidence may be mostly attributable to changes in the registration of non-malignant tumours. The overall malignant CNS tumour trend was compatible with reports for Southern Europe. Survival was lower than in Europe, without improvement over time. We provide a baseline for assessing current paediatric oncology achievements and incidence in respect of childhood and adolescent CNS tumours.

Lifestyle mediators of associations among siestas, obesity, and metabolic health.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the association between siestas/no siestas and obesity, considering siesta duration (long: >30 minutes, short: ≤30 minutes), and test whether siesta traits and/or lifestyle factors mediate the association of siestas with obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS). METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of 3275 adults from a Mediterranean population (the Obesity, Nutrigenetics, TIming, and MEditerranean [ONTIME] study) who had the opportunity of taking siestas because it is culturally embedded. RESULTS: Thirty-five percent of participants usually took siestas (16% long siestas). Compared with the no-siesta group, long siestas were associated with higher values of BMI, waist circumference, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure, as well as with a higher prevalence of MetS (41%; p = 0.015). In contrast, the probability of having elevated SBP was lower in the short-siesta group (21%; p = 0.044) than in the no-siesta group. Smoking a higher number of cigarettes per day mediated the association of long siestas with higher BMI (by 12%, percentage of association mediated by smoking; p < 0.05). Similarly, delays in nighttime sleep and eating schedules and higher energy intake at lunch (the meal preceding siestas) mediated the association between higher BMI and long siestas by 8%, 4%, and 5% (all p < 0.05). Napping in bed (vs. sofa/armchair) showed a trend to mediate the association between long siestas and higher SBP (by 6%; p = 0.055). CONCLUSIONS: Siesta duration is relevant in obesity/MetS. Timing of nighttime sleep and eating, energy intake at lunch, cigarette smoking, and siesta location mediated this association.

Cancer Survival in Adults in Spain: A Population-Based Study of the Spanish Network of Cancer Registries (REDECAN).

The assessment of cancer survival at the population level is essential for monitoring progress in cancer control. We aimed to assess cancer survival and its trends in adults in Spain. Individual records of 601,250 adults with primary cancer diagnosed during 2002-2013 and followed up to 2015 were included from 13 population-based cancer registries. We estimated net survival up to five years after diagnosis and analyzed absolute changes between 2002-2007 and 2008-2013. Estimates were age-standardized. Analyses were performed for 29 cancer groups, by age and sex. Overall, age-standardized five-year net survival was higher in women (61.7%, 95% CI 61.4-62.1%) than in men (55.3%, 95% CI 55.0-55.6%), and ranged by cancer from 7.2% (pancreas) to 89.6% (prostate) in men, and from 10.0% (pancreas) to 93.1% (thyroid) in women in the last period. Survival declined with age, showing different patterns by cancer. Between both periods, age-standardized five-year net survival increased overall by 3.3% (95% CI 3.0-3.7%) in men and 2.5% (95% CI 2.0-3.0%) in women, and for most cancer groups. Improvements were greater in patients younger than 75 years than in older patients. Chronic myeloid leukemia and myeloma showed the largest increases. Among the most common malignancies, the greatest absolute increases in survival were observed for colon (5.0%, 95% CI 4.0-6.0%) and rectal cancers (4.5%, 95% CI 3.2-5.9%). Survival improved even for some cancers with poor prognosis (pancreas, esophagus, lung, liver, and brain cancer). Further investigation of possible sociodemographic inequalities is warranted. This study contributes to the evaluation of cancer control and health services' effectiveness.

Estimating Country-Specific Incidence Rates of Rare Cancers: Comparative Performance Analysis of Modeling Approaches Using European Cancer Registry Data.

Estimating incidence of rare cancers is challenging for exceptionally rare entities and in small populations. In a previous study, investigators in the Information Network on Rare Cancers (RARECARENet) provided Bayesian estimates of expected numbers of rare cancers and 95% credible intervals for 27 European countries, using data collected by population-based cancer registries. In that study, slightly different results were found by implementing a Poisson model in integrated nested Laplace approximation/WinBUGS platforms. In this study, we assessed the performance of a Poisson modeling approach for estimating rare cancer incidence rates, oscillating around an overall European average and using small-count data in different scenarios/computational platforms. First, we compared the performance of frequentist, empirical Bayes, and Bayesian approaches for providing 95% confidence/credible intervals for the expected rates in each country. Second, we carried out an empirical study using 190 rare cancers to assess different lower/upper bounds of a uniform prior distribution for the standard deviation of the random effects. For obtaining a reliable measure of variability for country-specific incidence rates, our results suggest the suitability of using 1 as the lower bound for that prior distribution and selecting the random-effects model through an averaged indicator derived from 2 Bayesian model selection criteria: the deviance information criterion and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion.

PCR Array Technology in Biopsy Samples Identifies Up-Regulated mTOR Pathway Genes as Potential Rejection Biomarkers After Kidney Transplantation.

Background: Antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) is the major cause of kidney transplant rejection. The donor-specific human leukocyte antigen (HLA) antibody (DSA) response to a renal allograft is not fully understood yet. mTOR complex has been described in the accommodation or rejection of transplants and integrates responses from a wide variety of signals. The aim of this study was to analyze the expression of the mTOR pathway genes in a large cohort of kidney transplant patients to determine its possible influence on the transplant outcome. Methods: A total of 269 kidney transplant patients monitored for DSA were studied. The patients were divided into two groups, one with recipients that had transplant rejection (+DSA/+AMR) and a second group of recipients without rejection (+DSA/-AMR and -DSA/-AMR, controls). Total RNA was extracted from kidney biopsies and reverse transcribed to cDNA. Human mTOR-PCR array technology was used to determine the expression of 84 mTOR pathway genes. STRING and REVIGO software were used to simulate gene to gene interaction and to assign a molecular function. Results: The studied groups showed a different expression of the mTOR pathway related genes. Recipients that had transplant rejection showed an over-expressed transcript (≥5-fold) of AKT1S1, DDIT4, EIF4E, HRAS, IGF1, INS, IRS1, PIK3CD, PIK3CG, PRKAG3, PRKCB (>12-fold), PRKCG, RPS6KA2, TELO2, ULK1, and VEGFC, compared with patients that did not have rejection. AKT1S1 transcripts were more expressed in +DSA/-AMR biopsies compared with +DSA/+AMR. The main molecular functions of up-regulated gene products were phosphotransferase activity, insulin-like grown factor receptor and ribonucleoside phosphate binding. The group of patients with transplant rejection also showed an under-expressed transcript (≥5-fold) of VEGFA (>15-fold), RPS6, and RHOA compared with the group without rejection. The molecular function of down-regulated gene products such as protein kinase activity and carbohydrate derivative binding proteins was also analyzed. Conclusions: We have found a higher number of over-expressed mTOR pathway genes than under-expressed ones in biopsies from rejected kidney transplants (+DSA/+AMR) with respect to controls. In addition to this, the molecular function of both types of transcripts (over/under expressed) is different. Therefore, further studies are needed to determine if variations in gene expression profiles can act as predictors of graft loss, and a better understanding of the mechanisms of action of the involved proteins would be necessary.

Screening for prediabetes and risk of periodontal disease.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes and periodontitis are non-transmissible chronic disorders that exhibit a mutual relationship. A study was made to evaluate the risk of prediabetes and periodontal disease, and to explore the association between them. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional study was made of 186 individuals over 18 years of age, without prediabetes or diabetes, or cognitive impairment. Subjects undergoing dental treatment and pregnant women were excluded. Prediabetes risk was assessed based on the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), and the individual risk of development and/or progression of periodontal disease was explored with a periodontal disease risk questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 135 gingival risk questionnaires and 142 FINDRISC questionnaires were correctly completed. The proportion of subjects with a low, moderate and high risk of periodontal disease was 60.36%, 38.74% and 0.9%, respectively. With regard to the FINDRISC, the proportion of individuals with low, slightly increased, moderately increased and high risk of prediabetes was 54.4%, 32.8%, 8%, and 4.8%, respectively. A significant linear correlation between the two scores was observed (r = 0.3659, p < 0.0005). The variables associated with a slightly increased risk of prediabetes were age, overweight and smoking, while the variables associated with a moderately increased or high risk were age 40-65 years, tooth loss, overweight and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: These questionnaires may be of benefit to patients and can contribute to develop a chronic care model characterized by collaboration among different healthcare professionals.

Increasing therapy-related myeloid neoplasms in multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Despite the longer survival achieved in multiple myeloma (MM) patients due to new therapy strategies, a concern is emerging regarding an increased risk of secondary primary malignancies (SPMs) and how to characterize those patients at risk. We performed a retrospective study covering a 28-year follow-up period (1991-2018) in a tertiary single institution. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data of 403 MM patients were recorded and compared with the epidemiologic register of the population area covered by our centre, calculating the standardize incidence ratio (SIR) for the different types of SPMs diagnosed in the MM cohort. Fine and Gray regression models were used to identify risk factors for SPMs. RESULTS: Out of the 403 MM patients, 23 (5.7%) developed SPMs: 13 therapy-related myeloid (TRM) malignancies (10 of them (77%) myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), 1 acute lymphoid leukaemia and 9 solid neoplasms. In the MM cohort, the relative risk of MDS was significantly higher than in the general population. Survival of patients with TRM malignancies was poor with a median of 4 months from the diagnosis, and most of them showed complex karyotype. Within the MM subset, multivariable analysis showed a higher risk of TRM malignancies in patients that previously received prolonged treatment with lenalidomide (>18 months). CONCLUSIONS: Though the improvement in MM outcome during the last decades is an unprecedented achievement, it has been accompanied by the rise in TRM malignancies with complex cytogenetic profile and poor prognosis that are in the need of an improved biologic and therapeutic approach.

Bayesian estimates of the incidence of rare cancers in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The RARECAREnet project has updated the estimates of the burden of the 198 rare cancers in each European country. Suspecting that scant data could affect the reliability of statistical analysis, we employed a Bayesian approach to estimate the incidence of these cancers. METHODS: We analyzed about 2,000,000 rare cancers diagnosed in 2000-2007 provided by 83 population-based cancer registries from 27 European countries. We considered European incidence rates (IRs), calculated over all the data available in RARECAREnet, as a valid a priori to merge with country-specific observed data. Therefore we provided (1) Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly numbers of cases of rare cancers in each country; (2) the expected time (T) in years needed to observe one new case; and (3) practical criteria to decide when to use the Bayesian approach. RESULTS: Bayesian and classical estimates did not differ much; substantial differences (>10%) ranged from 77 rare cancers in Iceland to 14 in England. The smaller the population the larger the number of rare cancers needing a Bayesian approach. Bayesian estimates were useful for cancers with fewer than 150 observed cases in a country during the study period; this occurred mostly when the population of the country is small. CONCLUSION: For the first time the Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly expected numbers of cases for each rare cancer in each individual European country were calculated. Moreover, the indicator T is useful to convey incidence estimates for exceptionally rare cancers and in small countries; it far exceeds the professional lifespan of a medical doctor.

Trends in net survival from ovarian cancer in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

European Latin countries have some similarities in their health systems. It is thus interesting to look at their differences in cancer survival (here, ovarian cancer) through monitoring of specific indicators of quality care. The aim of this SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the trends in 1 and 5-year net survival from ovarian cancer and the trends in the excess mortality rates between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland). The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. First, the net survival was studied over the 2000-2004 period using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analyses, the study period was specific to each country. The results are reported from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland, and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. The analyses were carried out using a flexible excess rate modelling. Over the period 2000-2004, there were slight differences in the 5-year age-standardized net survivals from ovarian cancer; they ranged from 36% in Spain to 42% in Belgium. Net survival was much higher in young than in old age groups, but this difference was more marked in Spain and less marked in France. Between 1992 and 2004, the net survival increased in all countries, mainly in young and middle-aged women. However, the differences in 5-year net survival between these countries were larger in 2004 than in 1992. Slight differences were observed in survival from ovarian cancer between the six European Latin countries. A considerable improvement in survival was observed in all countries, especially in young and middle-aged women. This study highlights the need for further monitoring of ovarian cancer outcomes.

Worldwide comparison of ovarian cancer survival: Histological group and stage at diagnosis (CONCORD-2).

OBJECTIVE: Ovarian cancer comprises several histological groups with widely differing levels of survival. We aimed to explore international variation in survival for each group to help interpret international differences in survival from all ovarian cancers combined. We also examined differences in stage-specific survival. METHODS: The CONCORD programme is the largest population-based study of global trends in cancer survival, including data from 60 countries for 695,932 women (aged 15-99years) diagnosed with ovarian cancer during 1995-2009. We defined six histological groups: type I epithelial, type II epithelial, germ cell, sex cord-stromal, other specific non-epithelial and non-specific morphology, and estimated age-standardised 5-year net survival for each country by histological group. We also analysed data from 67 cancer registries for 233,659 women diagnosed from 2001 to 2009, for whom information on stage at diagnosis was available. We estimated age-standardised 5-year net survival by stage at diagnosis (localised or advanced). RESULTS: Survival from type I epithelial ovarian tumours for women diagnosed during 2005-09 ranged from 40 to 70%. Survival from type II epithelial tumours was much lower (20-45%). Survival from germ cell tumours was higher than that of type II epithelial tumours, but also varied widely between countries. Survival for sex-cord stromal tumours was higher than for the five other groups. Survival from localised tumours was much higher than for advanced disease (80% vs. 30%). CONCLUSIONS: There is wide variation in survival between histological groups, and stage at diagnosis remains an important factor in ovarian cancer survival. International comparisons of ovarian cancer survival should incorporate histology.

Work, household, and leisure-time physical activity and risk of mortality in the EPIC-Spain cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Large-scale longitudinal data on the association of domain-specific physical activity (PA) and mortality is limited. Our objective was to evaluate the association of work, household (HPA), and leisure time PA (LTPA) with overall and cause-specific mortality in the EPIC-Spain study. METHODS: 38,379 participants (62.4% women), 30-65years old, and free of chronic disease at baseline were followed-up from recruitment (1992 - 1996) to December 31st, 2008 to ascertain vital status and cause of death. PA was evaluated at baseline and at a 3-year follow-up with a validated questionnaire (EPIC-PAQ) and combined variables were used to classify the participants by sub-domains of PA. Associations with overall, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality risks were assessed using competing risk Cox regression models adjusted by potential confounders. RESULTS: After 13.6years of mean follow-up, 1371 deaths were available for analyses. HPA was strongly associated to reduced overall (hazard ratio (HR) for Q4 vs. Q1=0.47 (0.34, 0.64)) and cause-specific mortalities in women and to lower cancer mortality in men (P for trend=0.004), irrespective of age, education, and lifestyle and morbidity variables. LTPA was associated with lower mortality in women (HR for Q4 vs. Q1=0.71 (0.52, 0.98)), but not men. No relationships were found between sedentariness at work and overall mortality. CONCLUSIONS: HPA was associated to lower mortality risk in men and women from the EPIC-Spain cohort, whereas LTPA also contributed to reduce risk of death in women. Considering the large proportion of total daily PA that HPA represents in some population groups, these results are of public health importance.

A treelet transform analysis to relate nutrient patterns to the risk of hormonal receptor-defined breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

OBJECTIVE: Pattern analysis has emerged as a tool to depict the role of multiple nutrients/foods in relation to health outcomes. The present study aimed at extracting nutrient patterns with respect to breast cancer (BC) aetiology. DESIGN: Nutrient patterns were derived with treelet transform (TT) and related to BC risk. TT was applied to twenty-three log-transformed nutrient densities from dietary questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals computed using Cox proportional hazards models quantified the association between quintiles of nutrient pattern scores and risk of overall BC, and by hormonal receptor and menopausal status. Principal component analysis was applied for comparison. SETTING: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). SUBJECTS: Women (n 334 850) from the EPIC study. RESULTS: The first TT component (TC1) highlighted a pattern rich in nutrients found in animal foods loading on cholesterol, protein, retinol, vitamins B12 and D, while the second TT component (TC2) reflected a diet rich in ß-carotene, riboflavin, thiamin, vitamins C and B6, fibre, Fe, Ca, K, Mg, P and folate. While TC1 was not associated with BC risk, TC2 was inversely associated with BC risk overall (HRQ5 v. Q1=0·89, 95 % CI 0·83, 0·95, P trend<0·01) and showed a significantly lower risk in oestrogen receptor-positive (HRQ5 v. Q1=0·89, 95 % CI 0·81, 0·98, P trend=0·02) and progesterone receptor-positive tumours (HRQ5 v. Q1=0·87, 95 % CI 0·77, 0·98, P trend<0·01). CONCLUSIONS: TT produces readily interpretable sparse components explaining similar amounts of variation as principal component analysis. Our results suggest that participants with a nutrient pattern high in micronutrients found in vegetables, fruits and cereals had a lower risk of BC.

Survival patterns in lung and pleural cancer in Europe 1999-2007: Results from the EUROCARE-5 study.

BACKGROUND: Survival of patients diagnosed with lung and pleura cancer is a relevant health care indicator which is related to the availability and access to early diagnosis and treatment facilities. Aim of this paper is to update lung and pleural cancer survival patterns and time trends in Europe using the EUROCARE-5 database. METHODS: Data on adults diagnosed with lung and pleural cancer from 87 European cancer registries in 28 countries were analysed. Relative survival (RS) in 2000-2007 by country/region, age and gender, and over time trends in 1999-2007 were estimated. RESULTS: Lung cancer survival is poor everywhere in Europe, with a RS of 39% and 13% at 1 and 5years since diagnosis, respectively. A geographical variability is present across European areas with a maximum regional difference of 12 and 5 percentage points in 1-year and 5-year RS respectively. Pleural cancer represents 4% of cases included in the present study with 7% 5-year RS overall in Europe. Most pleural cancers (83%) are microscopically verified mesotheliomas. Survival for both cancers decreases with advancing age at diagnosis for both cancers. Slight increasing trends are described for lung cancer. Survival over time is higher for squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinomas than for small and large cell carcinoma; and better among women than men. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the generalised although slight increase, survival of lung and pleural cancer patients still remains poor in European countries. Priority should be given to prevention, with tobacco control policies across Europe for lung cancer and banning asbestos exposure for pleural cancer, and in early diagnosis and better treatment. The management of mesothelioma needs a multidisciplinary team and standardised health care strategies.

Reducing Monte Carlo error in the Bayesian estimation of risk ratios using log-binomial regression models.

In cohort studies, binary outcomes are very often analyzed by logistic regression. However, it is well known that when the goal is to estimate a risk ratio, the logistic regression is inappropriate if the outcome is common. In these cases, a log-binomial regression model is preferable. On the other hand, the estimation of the regression coefficients of the log-binomial model is difficult owing to the constraints that must be imposed on these coefficients. Bayesian methods allow a straightforward approach for log-binomial regression models and produce smaller mean squared errors in the estimation of risk ratios than the frequentist methods, and the posterior inferences can be obtained using the software WinBUGS. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS can lead to large Monte Carlo errors in the approximations to the posterior inferences because they produce correlated simulations, and the accuracy of the approximations are inversely related to this correlation. To reduce correlation and to improve accuracy, we propose a reparameterization based on a Poisson model and a sampling algorithm coded in R.

Resultados de dos encuestas dirigidas a inmigrantes y nativos del sureste español: salud, uso de servicios y necesidad de asistencia médica / Results of two surveys of immigrants and natives in Southeast Spain: health, use of services, and need for medical assistance

Objetivo. Comparar la salud, uso de servicios sanitarios y necesidad insatisfecha de atención médica (NIAM) entre inmigrantes y nativos del sureste español. Material y métodos. Estudio transversal de dos muestras representativas de población: inmigrante (n=1150) y nativa (n=1303; Encuesta Nacional de Salud). Se creó una única base de datos con ponderación específica para cada muestra y se estimaron razones de prevalencia (RP) mediante regresión multivariante. Resultados. Marroquíes, ecuatorianos y europeos del este (EE) declararon peor salud que los nativos (RPs [IC95%]: 2.45 [1.91-3.15]; 1.51 [1.28-1.79] y 1.44 [1.08-1.93], respectivamente). Los inmigrantes hicieron mayor uso de las urgencias (excepto EE) y consumieron menos fármacos. Los marroquíes mostraron la mayor diferencia en la frecuencia de NIAM (RP [IC95%]: 12.20 [5.25-28.37]), principalmente por razones laborales (46%). Conclusiones. La salud y el uso de servicios sanitarios difirieron significativamente entre inmigrantes y nativos. Destaca la NIAM alta en marroquíes por causa laboral.

Objective. To compare the self-perceived health, use of health services and unmet need for health care (UNHC) among immigrants and native populations of Southeast Spain. Materials and methods. Cross-sectional study of two representative samples of 1150 immigrants, and 1303 native participants from the National Health Survey. A single database was created with specific weights for each sample, and prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated by multivariate regression. Results. Moroccans, Ecuadorians and Eastern Europeans (EE) reported poorer health than the native population (PRs [CI95%]: 2.45 [1.91-3.15]; 1.51 [1.28-1.79] and 1.44 [1.08-1.93], respectively). Immigrants made greater use of emergencies that natives (except for EE) and had lower use of medication. Moroccan showed the greatest difference in the frequency of UNHC (PR [CI95%]:12.20 [5.25 - 28.37]), mainly because of working limitations (46%). Conclusions. The health status and use of health services among immigrants differ significantly from those of natives. Results highlight the higher frequency of UNHC among immigrants, especially high in Moroccans.

[Trend pattern of the incidence of thyroid cancer in Murcia Region (Spain) from 1984 to 2008]. / Patrón evolutivo de la incidencia de cáncer de tiroides en la Región de Murcia de 1984 a 2008.

OBJECTIVE: To study the trend pattern of the incidence of thyroid cancer. METHODS: We selected incident cases of thyroid cancer occurring in the Region of Murcia (Spain) in 1984-2008. The variables gathered were age, sex, date of diagnosis, and morphology. We calculated incidence rates and the annual percentage of change using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: During the study period, 1414 cases were diagnosed, representing an increase in adjusted rates from 2.9/100000 in 1984-1988 to 7.3 in 2004-2008. The incidence was 3.5 times higher in women than in men and the most frequent morphology was papillary carcinoma (67.7%). An increasing trend was found in both genders; these increments were more pronounced in papillary carcinoma. In women, the incidence increased with age, calendar year, and in those born in 1945-1963. The incidence of papillary microcarcinoma increased four-fold in women. CONCLUSIONS: Thyroid cancer used to be a rare cancer but has become an emerging tumor. The greatest changes were found in papillary thyroid cancer, including a gradual increase in the proportion of microcarcinoma.

Risk of type 2 diabetes according to traditional and emerging anthropometric indices in Spain, a Mediterranean country with high prevalence of obesity: results from a large-scale prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A proper anthropometric characterisation of T2DM risk is essential for disease prevention and clinical risk assessement. METHODS: Longitudinal study in 37 733 participants (63% women) of the Spanish EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) cohort without prevalent diabetes. Detailed questionnaire information was collected at baseline and anthropometric data gathered following standard procedures. A total of 2513 verified incident T2DM cases occurred after 12.1 years of mean follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios of T2DM by levels of anthropometric variables. RESULTS: Overall and central obesity were independently associated with T2DM risk. BMI showed the strongest association with T2DM in men whereas waist-related indices were stronger independent predictors in women. Waist-to-height ratio revealed the largest area under the ROC curve in men and women, with optimal cut-offs at 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The most discriminative waist circumference (WC) cut-off values were 99.4 cm in men and 90.4 cm in women. Absolute risk of T2DM was higher in men than women for any combination of age, BMI and WC categories, and remained low in normal-waist women. The population risk of T2DM attributable to obesity was 17% in men and 31% in women. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes risk was associated with higher overall and central obesity indices even at normal BMI and WC values. The measurement of waist circumference in the clinical setting is strongly recommended for the evaluation of future T2DM risk in women.

Trends in prostate cancer survival in Spain: results from population-based cancer registries.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study is to analyse the evolution of the survival of patients diagnosed with prostate cancer during the period 1995-2003. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a population survival study of incident cases of prostate cancer in four Spanish areas: Basque Country, Girona, Murcia and Navarra. We calculated the relative survival (RS) at 5 years and its 95% confidence intervals using a cohort analysis and adjusted for age. To assess the trend in survival between the periods (1995-1999 and 2000-2003) a Poisson regression model was used, adjusting for age, region and period, obtaining the relative risk of death. RESULTS: The number of patients diagnosed during the 1995- 1999 period was 6493 and 8331 in the period 2000-03. The RS at 5 years adjusted for age increased significantly, from 75.3% (95% CI 73.3-77.2) in the period 1995-99 to 85% (95% CI 83.4-86.4) in the period 2000-03. CONCLUSION: In Spain the survival of patients with prostate cancer has increased significantly from 1999 to 2003, probably due to the advancement in diagnosis produced by the opportunistic screening of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Differences in the dissemination and use of the PSA level could explain the observed geographic differences in the increase of survival. It would be necessary to carry out studies to quantify the produced overdiagnosis by screening with PSA in prostate cancer.