Electrocardiographic deep learning for predicting post-procedural mortality: a model development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative risk assessments used in clinical practice are insufficient in their ability to identify risk for postoperative mortality. Deep-learning analysis of electrocardiography can identify hidden risk markers that can help to prognosticate postoperative mortality. We aimed to develop a prognostic model that accurately predicts postoperative mortality in patients undergoing medical procedures and who had received preoperative electrocardiographic diagnostic testing. METHODS: In a derivation cohort of preoperative patients with available electrocardiograms (ECGs) from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center (Los Angeles, CA, USA) between Jan 1, 2015 and Dec 31, 2019, a deep-learning algorithm was developed to leverage waveform signals to discriminate postoperative mortality. We randomly split patients (8:1:1) into subsets for training, internal validation, and final algorithm test analyses. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values in the hold-out test dataset and in two external hospital cohorts and compared with the established Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score. The primary outcome was post-procedural mortality across three health-care systems. FINDINGS: 45 969 patients had a complete ECG waveform image available for at least one 12-lead ECG performed within the 30 days before the procedure date (59 975 inpatient procedures and 112 794 ECGs): 36 839 patients in the training dataset, 4549 in the internal validation dataset, and 4581 in the internal test dataset. In the held-out internal test cohort, the algorithm discriminates mortality with an AUC value of 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87), surpassing the discrimination of the RCRI score with an AUC of 0·67 (0·61-0·72). The algorithm similarly discriminated risk for mortality in two independent US health-care systems, with AUCs of 0·79 (0·75-0·83) and 0·75 (0·74-0·76), respectively. Patients determined to be high risk by the deep-learning model had an unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of 8·83 (5·57-13·20) for postoperative mortality compared with an unadjusted OR of 2·08 (0·77-3·50) for postoperative mortality for RCRI scores of more than 2. The deep-learning algorithm performed similarly for patients undergoing cardiac surgery (AUC 0·85 [0·77-0·92]), non-cardiac surgery (AUC 0·83 [0·79-0·88]), and catheterisation or endoscopy suite procedures (AUC 0·76 [0·72-0·81]). INTERPRETATION: A deep-learning algorithm interpreting preoperative ECGs can improve discrimination of postoperative mortality. The deep-learning algorithm worked equally well for risk stratification of cardiac surgeries, non-cardiac surgeries, and catheterisation laboratory procedures, and was validated in three independent health-care systems. This algorithm can provide additional information to clinicians making the decision to perform medical procedures and stratify the risk of future complications. FUNDING: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Risk Factors for the Development of New-Onset Persistent Atrial Fibrillation: Subanalysis of the VITAL Study.

BACKGROUND: Sustained forms of atrial fibrillation (AF) are associated with lower treatment success rates and poorer prognosis compared with paroxysmal AF. Yet, little is known about risk factors that predispose to persistent AF on initial presentation. Our objective was to define risk factors associated with new-onset persistent AF. METHODS: We prospectively examined the differential associations between lifestyle, clinical, and socioeconomic risk factors and AF pattern (persistent versus paroxysmal) at the time of diagnosis among 25 119 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease, AF, or cancer in the VITAL rhythm study (Vitamin D and Omega-3). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.3 years, 900 participants developed AF and 346 (38.4%) were classified as persistent at the time of diagnosis. In multivariable competing risk models, increasing age, male sex, White race, height, weight, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, hypertension, current or past smoking, alcohol intake ≥2 drinks/day, postcollege education, and randomized treatment with vitamin D were significantly associated with incident persistent AF. Compared with paroxysmal AF, increasing age, male sex, weight, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, and postcollege education were more strongly associated with persistent AF in multivariable models regardless of whether interim cardiovascular disease and heart failure events were censored. CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective cohort without baseline AF or cardiovascular disease, over one-third of AF at the time of diagnosis is persistent. Older age, male sex, postcollege education, and obesity were preferentially associated with persistent AF and represent a high-risk AF subset for population-based intervention.

The Seventh Prevention of Syncope Trial (POST VII)-A randomized clinical trial of atomoxetine for the prevention of vasovagal syncope: Rationale and study design.

BACKGROUND: Vasovagal syncope (VVS) is common, recurs, and is associated with markedly reduced quality of life, anxiety, and frequent injuries. The few pharmacological therapies for VVS proven to have a moderate benefit in reducing recurrences are limited to patients without coexisting conditions such as hypertension or heart failure. Although there is some data to suggest Atomoxetine, a norepinephrine reuptake transport inhibitor (NET), may be a promising treatment option, an adequately powered randomized placebo-controlled trial is needed. STUDY DESIGN: POST VII is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study that will randomize 180 patients with VVS and at least 2 syncopal spells in the preceding year to a target daily dose of atomoxetine 80 mg daily or to a matching placebo, with an observation period of 6 months in each phase and with a 1-week washout period between phases. The primary end point will be the proportion of patients with at least one syncope recurrence in each arm analyzed with an intention-to-treat approach. The secondary end points include total syncope burden, quality of life, cost, and cost-effectiveness. POWER CALCULATIONS: Assuming a 33% relative risk reduction in syncope recurrence with atomoxetine, and a dropout rate of 16%, the enrollment of 180 patients will give an 85% power of reaching a positive conclusion about atomoxetine, with P = .05. CONCLUSIONS: This will be the first adequately powered trial to determine whether atomoxetine is effective in preventing VVS. If proven effective, atomoxetine might become the first-line pharmacological treatment for recurrent VVS.

Atomoxetine for suppression of vasovagal syncope.

OBJECTIVE: Vasovagal syncope (VVS) is a common clinical condition with few effective medical therapies. The study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of atomoxetine in suppressing syncope in patients with recurrent VVS. METHODS: This was a retrospective, open-label, observational case series of 12 patients taking atomoxetine for suppression of recurrent vasovagal syncope. We compared syncope frequency in the 1 year before atomoxetine and while subjects were taking atomoxetine. We used novel applications of the Poisson distribution to describe the results as a collection of n = 1 studies. RESULTS: There were 12 subjects, eight female, with a mean age 47 ± 22 years and a mean Calgary Syncope Symptom Score of 2 (diagnostic of vasovagal syncope). The patients received a mean dose of atomoxetine of 66 ± 16 mg (1.06 ± 0.21 mg/kg). The mean follow-up period was 1.21 ± 1.01 years. While taking atomoxetine, 11/12 patients appeared to improve and 7/12 had no syncope in follow-up (p = 0.0046). The annualized syncope frequency decreased from a median 5.5 (IQR 4, 6.75) syncope per year to 0 (IQR 0, 0.88) syncope per year (p = 0.002, Wilcoxon rank-sum test). According to the Poisson distribution, 7/12 subjects significantly improved with p values of < 0.0001 to 0.0235, 3/12 did not faint but had too brief follow-up times to detect significance, and 2/12 did not improve significantly. CONCLUSIONS: In this case series, atomoxetine was a promising oral agent for the prevention of vasovagal syncope. The Poisson distribution permits individual patient-level assessment of improvement and detects insufficient follow-up despite apparent improvement.

Is Screening for Atrial Fibrillation and Its Risk Factors Useful and Cost-Effective?

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major, preventable cause of stroke, whose prevalence is increasing with the aging of the population. There are safe and effective anticoagulation therapies to prevent stroke and new technologies that can identify AF in asymptomatic individuals. Ongoing research will determine if AF screening is cost-effective and will define the best screening strategies. The effectiveness of AF screening can be enhanced by simultaneously screening for the cardiovascular conditions that predispose to the development and progression of AF and its complications. Future studies evaluating an integrated screening program on outcomes, health care utilization, and cost are needed.

Lack of benefit from hospitalization in patients with syncope: A propensity analysis.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Patients with syncope are frequently admitted to the hospital, but whether this improves outcome is unknown. We tested whether hospitalization reduced mortality in patients who presented to emergency departments (EDs) with syncope. METHODS: We conducted a propensity analysis of the outcomes of patients ≥18 years old presenting to EDs with a primary diagnosis of syncope in April 2004-March 2013. The model used 1:1 nearest-neighbor matching to predicted admission using age, sex, urban residence, household income, and 14 significant comorbidities from 4 administrative databases of the province of Alberta. The primary outcome was death. RESULTS: There were 57,417 ED patients with a primary diagnosis of syncope; 8864 were admitted, and 48,553 were discharged in <24 hours. Admitted patients were older (median 76 vs 49 years), male (53% vs 45%), rural (23% vs 18%), and had lower income (median $58,599 vs $61,422); all P < 0.001. All comorbidities were higher in admitted patients (mean Charlson scores, 1.9 vs 0.7; P < 0.001). The propensity-matched hospitalized patients had higher 30-day mortality (3.5% vs 1.0%) and 1-year mortality (14.1% vs 8.6%); both P < 0.001. Mortality in all propensity quintiles was higher in the hospitalized group (all P < 0.001). The most common causes of death in 2719 patients included chronic ischemic heart disease, 14%; lung cancer, 7.1%; acute myocardial infarction, 6.9%; stroke, 3.7%; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 3.6%; dementia, 2.6%; and heart failure, 2.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital admission did not reduce early or late mortality in patients who presented to the ED with syncope. Mortality is associated with comorbidities.

Effect of Direct Oral Anticoagulants, Warfarin, and Antiplatelet Agents on Risk of Device Pocket Hematoma: Combined Analysis of BRUISE CONTROL 1 and 2.

BACKGROUND: Oral anticoagulant use is common among patients undergoing pacemaker or defibrillator surgery. BRUISE CONTROL (Bridge or Continue Coumadin for Device Surgery Randomized Controlled Trial; NCT00800137) demonstrated that perioperative warfarin continuation reduced clinically significant hematomas (CSH) by 80% compared with heparin bridging (3.5% versus 16%). BRUISE-CONTROL-2 (NCT01675076) observed a similarly low risk of CSH when comparing continued versus interrupted direct oral anticoagulant (2.1% in both groups). Using patient level data from both trials, the current study aims to: (1) evaluate the effect of concomitant antiplatelet therapy on CSH, and (2) understand the relative risk of CSH in patients treated with direct oral anticoagulant versus continued warfarin. METHODS: We analyzed 1343 patients included in BRUISE-CONTROL-1 and BRUISE-CONTROL-2. The primary outcome for both trials was CSH. There were 408 patients identified as having continued either a single or dual antiplatelet agent at the time of device surgery. RESULTS: Antiplatelet use (versus nonuse) was associated with CSH in 9.8% versus 4.3% of patients (P<0.001), and remained a strong independent predictor after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.965; 95% CI, 1.202-3.213; P=0.0071). In multivariable analysis, adjusting for antiplatelet use, there was no significant difference in CSH observed between direct oral anticoagulant use compared with continued warfarin (odds ratio, 0.858; 95% CI, 0.375-1.963; P=0.717). CONCLUSIONS: Concomitant antiplatelet therapy doubled the risk of CSH during device surgery. No difference in CSH was found between direct oral anticoagulant versus continued warfarin. In anticoagulated patients undergoing elective or semi-urgent device surgery, the patient specific benefit/risk of holding an antiplatelet should be carefully considered. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT00800137, NCT01675076.

Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals.

BACKGROUND: The precise age distribution and calculated stroke risk of screen-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) is not known. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one treatable new AF case (NNS-Rx) (i.e., Class-1 oral anticoagulation [OAC] treatment recommendation) in each age stratum. If the NNS-Rx is known for each age stratum, precise cost-effectiveness and sensitivity simulations can be performed based on the age distribution of the population/region to be screened. Such calculations are required by national authorities and organisations responsible for health system budgets to determine the best age cutoffs for screening programs and decide whether programs of screening should be funded. Therefore, we aimed to determine the exact yield and calculated stroke-risk profile of screen-detected AF and NNS-Rx in 5-year age strata. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of Medline, Pubmed, and Embase was performed (January 2007 to February 2018), and AF-SCREEN international collaboration members were contacted to identify additional studies. Twenty-four eligible studies were identified that performed a single time point screen for AF in a general ambulant population, including people ≥65 years. Authors from eligible studies were invited to collaborate and share patient-level data. Statistical analysis was performed using random effects logistic regression for AF detection rate, and Poisson regression modelling for CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Nineteen studies (14 countries from a mix of low- to middle- and high-income countries) collaborated, with 141,220 participants screened and 1,539 new AF cases. Pooled yield of screening was greater in males across all age strata. The age/sex-adjusted detection rate for screen-detected AF in ≥65-year-olds was 1.44% (95% CI, 1.13%-1.82%) and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.31%-0.53%) for <65-year-olds. New AF detection rate increased progressively with age from 0.34% (<60 years) to 2.73% (≥85 years). Neither the choice of screening methodology or device, the geographical region, nor the screening setting influenced the detection rate of AF. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores (n = 1,369) increased with age from 1.1 (<60 years) to 3.9 (≥85 years); 72% of ≥65 years had ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. All new AF ≥75 years and 66% between 65 and 74 years had a Class-1 OAC recommendation. The NNS-Rx is 83 for ≥65 years, 926 for 60-64 years; and 1,089 for <60 years. The main limitation of this study is there are insufficient data on sociodemographic variables of the populations and possible ascertainment biases to explain the variance in the samples. CONCLUSIONS: People with screen-detected AF are at elevated calculated stroke risk: above age 65, the majority have a Class-1 OAC recommendation for stroke prevention, and >70% have ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. Our data, based on the largest number of screen-detected AF collected to date, show the precise relationship between yield and estimated stroke risk profile with age, and strong dependence for NNS-RX on the age distribution of the population to be screened: essential information for precise cost-effectiveness calculations.

Empirical Insights When Defining the Population Burden of Atrial Fibrillation and Oral Anticoagulation Utilization Using Administrative Data.

Health administrative data are routinely used to assess disease burden, quality of care, and outcomes for atrial fibrillation (AF). Governments, administrators, and researchers define cohorts differently, based on 3 key factors: the case definition algorithm to identify AF, inclusion/exclusion of transient AF, and the lookback period to identify cases. We assessed the impact of varying these key factors on estimates of the use of guideline-indicated oral anticoagulation (OAC). Hospitalization, ED, and outpatient claim databases were linked in British Columbia. AF was defined by ICD-9 or 10 codes 427.3x or I48.x. We examined a specific (1 hospital or 1 ED or 2 outpatient) vs a sensitive (1 hospital or ED or outpatient) algorithm; inclusion/exclusion of AF associated with open-heart surgery; and lookback periods of 1 to 10 years. We found the more specific AF definition increased OAC utilization by 5% (58.7% vs 53.4%); excluding AF associated with open-heart surgery increased OAC utilization by 0.7% to 2.3%; and each additional lookback year identified more prevalent cases but reduced OAC utilization by approximately 1%. In 40 scenarios, generated by varying all 3 key factors, OAC utilization ranged from 52% to 72%. Assuming a ceiling of 90%, the estimated "treatment gap" therefore varied from 18% to 38%. The 2-fold variation in the OAC treatment gap was based entirely on cohort definition. This has significant implications for health policy and quality indicators.

A Population-Based Study of Device Eligibility, Use, and Reasons for Nonimplantation in Patients at Heart Function Clinics.

BACKGROUND: Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapy is lifesaving; however, real-world data regarding the proportion of patients eligible for a primary prevention ICD and subsequent use remain sparse. This study evaluated rates of primary prevention ICD eligibility and use among patients in heart function clinics (HFCs) and to identify reasons for nonimplantation. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed of patients seen at HFCs in Alberta, Canada, from 2013 to 2015. Demographics, comorbidities, clinical indications, and reasons for nonimplantation were abstracted. Eligibility was defined according to the 2008 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association/Heart Rhythm Society ICD, 2012 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association/Heart Rhythm Society Focused Update, and 2013 Canadian Cardiovascular Society Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy guidelines. Logistic regression was used to calculate an odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for predictors of nonimplantation. RESULTS: Among 1239 patients in HFCs, the median age was 70 years (interquartile range, 59-80), 67% were male, and the median left ventricular ejection fraction was 0.40 (interquartile range, 0.28-0.53). Overall, 45% of patients (n = 553) met guideline criteria for an ICD, and of those, 36% (n = 198) received a device. Among device nonrecipients, 52% (n = 185) had no documented reason for nonimplantation. The most common reason for nonimplantation among nonrecipients was patient preference (48%). Predictors associated with nonimplantation were age more than 75 years (OR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.31-2.82) and history of cancer (OR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.07-4.78). At 3 years follow-up, 27% of nonrecipients were deceased. CONCLUSIONS: We found that one-third of patients who met guideline criteria received an ICD and that documentation for nonimplantation was poor.

CONTEXTE: Le défibrillateur cardioverteur implantable (DCI) sauve des vies. Or, les données recueillies dans la pratique réelle concernant le pourcentage de patients admissibles à l'implantation d'un tel dispositif en prévention primaire et l'utilisation subséquente de ce dispositif sont très limitées. Cette étude a évalué le taux de patients admissibles à la pose d'un DCI en prévention primaire et le taux d'utilisation de ce dispositif chez des patients traités en clinique de cardiologie. Elle a également recensé les motifs de non-implantation. MÉTHODOLOGIE: Une étude rétrospective a été réalisée chez des patients traités de 2013 à 2015 dans plusieurs cliniques de cardiologie de l'Alberta, au Canada. Les données relatives aux caractéristiques démographiques, aux comorbidités, aux indications cliniques et aux motifs de la non-implantation ont été extraites. L'admissibilité était définie en fonction des lignes directrices de 2008 de l'American College of Cardiology, de l'American Heart Association et de la Heart Rhythm Society sur le DCI, de leur mise à jour ciblée en 2012 et des lignes directrices de 2013 de la Société canadienne de cardiologie sur la thérapie de resynchronisation cardiaque. Une régression logistique a été utilisée pour calculer le risque relatif approché (RRA) et l'intervalle de confiance (IC) à 95 % associés aux facteurs de prédiction de la non-implantation. RÉSULTATS: L'âge médian des 1 239 patients traités en clinique de cardiologie était de 70 ans (plage interquartile : 59 ­ 80 ans); 67 % d'entre eux étaient des hommes, et la fraction d'éjection ventriculaire gauche médiane était de 0,40 (plage interquartile : 0,28 ­ 0,53). D'une manière générale, 45 % des patients (n = 553) répondaient aux critères énoncés dans les lignes directrices pour la pose d'un DCI, et 36 % d'entre eux (n = 198) ont reçu un dispositif. Parmi les patients qui n'ont pas reçu de dispositif, aucun motif justifiant la non-implantation n'a été documenté chez 52 % des patients (n = 185); chez les 48 % des patients restants, le motif le plus courant pour justifier la non-implantation a été la préférence du patient. Les facteurs de prédiction associés à la non-implantation ont été l'âge (plus de 75 ans; RRA : 1,92; IC à 95 % : 1,31 ­ 2,82) et les antécédents de cancer (RRA : 2,26; IC à 95 % : 1,07 ­ 4,78). Après 3 ans de suivi, 27 % des patients qui n'avaient pas reçu de dispositif étaient décédés. CONCLUSIONS: Nous avons constaté que le tiers des patients qui répondaient aux critères énoncés dans les lignes directrices ont reçu un DCI et que les motifs justifiant la non-implantation étaient mal documentés.

Continued vs. interrupted direct oral anticoagulants at the time of device surgery, in patients with moderate to high risk of arterial thrombo-embolic events (BRUISE CONTROL-2).

Aims: Guidelines recommend warfarin continuation rather than heparin bridging for pacemaker and defibrillator surgery, after the BRUISE CONTROL trial demonstrated an 80% reduction in device pocket haematoma with this approach. However, direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are now used to treat the majority of patients with atrial fibrillation. We sought to understand the best strategy to manage the DOACs at the time of device surgery and specifically hypothesized that performing device surgery without DOAC interruption would result in a reduced haematoma rate. Methods and results: We randomly assigned patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, to continued vs. interrupted DOAC (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or apixaban). The primary outcome was blindly evaluated, clinically significant device pocket haematoma: resulting in re-operation, interruption of anticoagulation, or prolonging hospital stay. In the continued arm, the median time between pre- and post-operative DOAC doses was 12 h; in the interrupted arm the median time was 72 h. Clinically significant haematoma occurred in of 7 of 328 (2.1%; 95% CI 0.9-4.3) patients in the continued DOAC arm and 7 of 334 (2.1%; 95% CI 0.9-4.3) patients in the interrupted DOAC arm (P = 0.97). Complications were uncommon, and included one stroke and one symptomatic pericardial effusion in each arm. Conclusions: These results suggest that, dependent on the clinical scenario, either management strategy (continued DOAC or interrupted DOAC) might be reasonable, at least for patients similar to those enrolled in our trial.

Is Screening for Atrial Fibrillation in Canadian Family Practices Cost-Effective in Patients 65 Years and Older?

We present an economic evaluation of a recently completed cohort study in which 2054 seniors were screened for atrial fibrillation (AF) in 22 Canadian family practices. Using a Markov model, trial and literature data were used to project long-term outcomes and costs associated with 4 AF screening strategies for individuals aged 65 years or older: no screening, screen with 30-second radial manual pulse check (pulse check), screen with a blood pressure machine with AF detection (BP-AF), and screen with a single-lead electrocardiogram (SL-ECG). Costs and outcomes were discounted at 1.5% and the model used a lifetime horizon from a public payer perspective. Compared with no screening, screening for AF in Canadian family practice offices using pulse check or screen with a blood pressure machine with AF detection is the dominant strategy whereas screening with SL-ECG is a highly cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of CAD$4788. When different screening strategies were compared, screening with pulse check had the lowest expected costs ($202) and screening with SL-ECG had the highest expected costs ($222). The no-screening arm resulted in the lowest number of QALYs (8.74195) whereas pulse check and SL-ECG resulted in the highest expected QALYs (8.74362). Probabilistic analysis confirmed that pulse check had the highest probability of being cost-effective (63%) assuming a willingness to pay of $50,000 per QALY gained. Screening for AF in seniors during routine appointments with Canadian family physicians is a cost-effective strategy compared with no screening. Screening with a pulse check is likely to be the most cost-effective strategy.

Screening for undiagnosed atrial fibrillation.

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a condition of global importance, and it is associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. A considerable proportion of patients with AF are asymptomatic, and stroke may be the first clinical manifestation of their AF diagnosis. AF screening provides an opportunity to identify patients with undetected AF prior to suffering a devastating complication. Areas covered: This review will provide a rationale for AF screening; summarize AF screening methods, studies, and economic analyses; evaluate AF as a condition meeting criteria for population screening; and discuss potential drawbacks. Expert commentary: While AF screening is simple, low risk, and, in most cases, low cost, additional research is needed validating new technologies and devices; defining strategies for linking screening with initiation of oral anticoagulation therapy and determining whether AF screening ultimately reduces stroke and stroke-related complications and costs.

Menopausal age, postmenopausal hormone therapy and incident atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: Limited data exist on the association between menopause and atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to examine the relationship between menopausal age, postmenopausal hormone therapy (PHT) use and incident AF. METHODS: The Women's Health Study (WHS) enrolled 39 876 female health professionals between 1992 and 1995. We prospectively examined 30 034 women in WHS using Cox proportional-hazard models. Participants were free of cardiovascular disease and AF at baseline and had not undergone hysterectomy without bilateral oophorectomy prior to menopause. Incident AF was confirmed by medical record review. RESULTS: At baseline, median age was 53 years (IQR 49-60), median menopausal age was 50 years (IQR 46-52) and 14 415 (48.0%) had prior PHT use. Over a median follow-up of 20.5 years, 1350 AF events occurred. In multivariable analysis, relative hazards for AF were lower among women with younger age at menopause but did not differ significantly from women with the oldest menopausal age (<45: HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.02; 45-49: HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.08; 50-54: HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.06; >54 years: referent). Use of oestrogen-alone PHT, but not oestrogen and progesterone, was independently associated with AF risk (HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.45 vs HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.26). This relationship was not attenuated by intermediary cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective study, menopausal age was not significantly related to incident AF, while use of oestrogen monotherapy was associated with increased AF risk. Our findings suggest a pathophysiological link between unopposed oestrogen exposure and AF in women. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT000000479; Post-results.

Modifiable Risk Factors for Incident Heart Failure in Atrial Fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to identify modifiable risk factors and estimate the impact of risk factor modification on heart failure (HF) risk in women with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). BACKGROUND: Incident HF is the most common nonfatal event in patients with AF, although strategies for HF prevention are lacking. METHODS: We assessed 34,736 participants in the Women's Health Study who were free of prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline. Cox models with time-varying assessment of risk factors after AF diagnosis were used to identify significant modifiable risk factors for incident HF. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 20.6 years, 1,495 women developed AF without prevalent HF. In multivariable models, new-onset AF was associated with an increased risk of HF (hazard ratio [HR]: 9.03; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.52 to 10.85). Once women with AF developed HF, all-cause (HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.37 to 2.45) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.70 to 4.85) increased. In time-updated, multivariable models accounting for changes in risk factors after AF diagnosis, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, current tobacco use, and diabetes mellitus were each associated with incident HF. The combination of these 4 modifiable risk factors accounted for an estimated 62% (95% CI: 23% to 83%) of the population-attributable risk of HF. Compared with women with 3 or 4 risk factors, those who maintained or achieved optimal risk factor control had a progressive decreased risk of HF (HR for 2 risk factors: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.95; 1 risk factor: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.63; and 0 risk factors: 0.14; 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: In women with new-onset AF, modifiable risk factors including obesity, hypertension, smoking, and diabetes accounted for the majority of the population risk of HF. Optimal levels of modifiable risk factors were associated with decreased HF risk. Prospective assessment of risk factor modification at the time of AF diagnosis may warrant future investigation.

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration.

Approximately 10% of ischemic strokes are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) first diagnosed at the time of stroke. Detecting asymptomatic AF would provide an opportunity to prevent these strokes by instituting appropriate anticoagulation. The AF-SCREEN international collaboration was formed in September 2015 to promote discussion and research about AF screening as a strategy to reduce stroke and death and to provide advocacy for implementation of country-specific AF screening programs. During 2016, 60 expert members of AF-SCREEN, including physicians, nurses, allied health professionals, health economists, and patient advocates, were invited to prepare sections of a draft document. In August 2016, 51 members met in Rome to discuss the draft document and consider the key points arising from it using a Delphi process. These key points emphasize that screen-detected AF found at a single timepoint or by intermittent ECG recordings over 2 weeks is not a benign condition and, with additional stroke factors, carries sufficient risk of stroke to justify consideration of anticoagulation. With regard to the methods of mass screening, handheld ECG devices have the advantage of providing a verifiable ECG trace that guidelines require for AF diagnosis and would therefore be preferred as screening tools. Certain patient groups, such as those with recent embolic stroke of uncertain source (ESUS), require more intensive monitoring for AF. Settings for screening include various venues in both the community and the clinic, but they must be linked to a pathway for appropriate diagnosis and management for screening to be effective. It is recognized that health resources vary widely between countries and health systems, so the setting for AF screening should be both country- and health system-specific. Based on current knowledge, this white paper provides a strong case for AF screening now while recognizing that large randomized outcomes studies would be helpful to strengthen the evidence base.

Risk of Malignant Cancer Among Women With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation.

IMPORTANCE: A substantial proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) die of noncardiovascular causes, and recent studies suggest a link between AF and cancer. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations between AF and cancer in a large, long-term prospective cohort study. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, a total of 34 691 women 45 years or older and free of AF, cardiovascular disease, and cancer at baseline were prospectively followed up between 1993 and 2013, for incident AF and malignant cancer within the Women's Health Study, a randomized clinical trial of aspirin and vitamin E for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer. Cox proportional hazards models using time-updated covariates were constructed to assess the association of new-onset AF with subsequent cancer and to adjust for potential confounders. Data analysis was performed from December 2014 to May 2015. EXPOSURE: New-onset AF. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident malignant cancer confirmed by an end point committee. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 19.1 years of 34 691 study participants (interquartile range [IQR], 17.6-19.7 years), new-onset AF and malignant cancer were confirmed among 1467 (4.2%) and 5130 (14.8%) participants, respectively. Median age at baseline among participants with new-onset AF and new-onset cancer during follow-up was 58 years (IQR, 52-64 years) and 55 years (IQR, 50-61 years), respectively. Atrial fibrillation was a significant risk factor for incident cancer in age-adjusted (hazard ratio [HR], 1.58; 95% CI, 1.34-1.87; P < .001) and multivariable-adjusted (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.25-1.75; P < .001) models. The relative risk of cancer was highest in the first 3 months after new-onset AF (HR, 3.54; 95% CI, 2.05-6.10; P < .001) but remained significant beyond 1 year after new-onset AF (adjusted HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.18-1.71; P < .001), and a trend toward an increased cancer mortality was observed (adjusted HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.98-1.79; P = .07). In contrast, among women with new-onset cancer, the relative risk of AF was increased only within the first 3 months (HR, 4.67; 95% CI, 2.85-7.64; P < .001) but not thereafter (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.95-1.39; P = .15). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this large, initially healthy cohort, women with new-onset AF had an elevated cancer risk beyond 1 year of AF diagnosis. Shared risk factors and/or common systemic disease processes might underlie this association.

A case report of QT prolongation with glycopyrronium bromide in a patient with chronic tamoxifen use.

BACKGROUND: Glycopyrronium bromide has recently been approved as a once daily maintenance inhalation therapy for moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Efficacy and safety trial data have found rare cases of significant QT prolongation. To our knowledge, we describe the first case report of QT prolongation >600 ms with initiation of glycopyrronium bromide in a real world setting. CASE PRESENTATION: A 78-year-old female with moderate COPD recently started on glycopyrronium bromide, presented to Emergency Department (ED) with syncope. Her past medical history was significant for a left total mastectomy and she had been on Tamoxifen for 9 months. One day prior to her presentation, she had visited a naturopathic clinic for a vitamin infusion resulting in emesis. The following day she continued to feel dizzy and had a witnessed syncopal episode without any reported cardiac or neurological symptoms preceding the event or after regaining consciousness. In the emergency department, she reported dizziness and was found to be hypotensive. Her symptoms completely resolved with intravenous fluids. Lab work was normal however her electrocardiogram (ECG) demonstrated a QTc interval of 603 and 631 ms (Friderica and Bazett's respectively) with a normal QT interval on her baseline ECG prior to initiating Tamoxifen. She was admitted to the Cardiology service for further work-up of QT prolongation. Her syncope was felt to be due to orthostatic hypotension and the QT prolongation secondary to medications, which were both discontinued during her admission. After 2 days, her QT interval normalized consistent with the half-life of Glycopyrronium bromide (13-57 h) compared to Tamoxifen (8-14 days). CONCLUSION: Glycopyrronium bromide is guideline recommended as first line therapy for prevention of exacerbation in moderate to severe COPD however safety data had been limited to select populations. This case report highlights the need for future studies to identify high-risk populations at potential risk of life-threatening arrhythmias who may benefit from periodic ECG surveillance.

Strategy of continued vs interrupted novel oral anticoagulant at time of device surgery in patients with moderate to high risk of arterial thromboembolic events: The BRUISE CONTROL-2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients who require perioperative anticoagulation during cardiac implantable electronic device surgery are at increased risk for bleeding complications. The BRUISE CONTROL trial demonstrated that continuing warfarin was safer than heparin bridging, reducing the incidence of clinically significant pocket hematoma. Novel oral anticoagulants are being increasingly prescribed in place of warfarin. The best perioperative management of these new anticoagulants is unknown. METHODS/DESIGN: A randomized controlled trial to investigate whether a strategy of continued vs interrupted novel oral anticoagulant (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or apixaban) at the time of device surgery, in patients with moderate to high risk of arterial thromboembolic events, reduces the incidence of clinically significant hematoma (defined as a hematoma requiring reoperation and/or resulting in prolongation of hospitalization, and/or requiring interruption of anticoagulation). The secondary outcomes include components of the primary outcome, composite of all other major perioperative bleeding events, thromboembolic events, all-cause mortality, cost-effectiveness, patient quality of life, perioperative pain, and satisfaction. Planned analyses include descriptive statistics of all baseline variables. For the primary outcome, interrupted vs continued novel oral anticoagulant arms will be compared using the χ(2) test. If any clinically significant differences are identified, a logistic regression analysis will be conducted. Quality of life will be assessed using EuroQol-5D, and perioperative pain using a visual analog scale. DISCUSSION: BRUISE CONTROL-2 is a randomized trial evaluating the best strategy to manage novel oral anticoagulants at the time of device surgery. We hypothesize that device surgery can be performed safely without interruption of these medications.