Impact of the use of small-area models on estimation of attributable mortality at a regional level.

The objective of this study is to assess the impact of applying prevalences derived from a small-area model at a regional level on smoking-attributable mortality (SAM). A prevalence-dependent method was used to estimate SAM. Prevalences of tobacco use were derived from a small-area model. SAM and population attributable fraction (PAF) estimates were compared against those calculated by pooling data from three national health surveys conducted in Spain (2011-2014-2017). We calculated the relative changes between the two estimates and assessed the width of the 95% CI of the PAF. Applying surveys-based prevalences, tobacco use was estimated to cause 53 825 (95% CI: 53 182-54 342) deaths in Spain in 2017, a figure 3.8% lower obtained with the small-area model prevalences. The lowest relative change was observed in the Castile-La Mancha region (1.1%) and the highest in Navarre (14.1%). The median relative change between regions was higher for women (26.1%), population aged ≥65 years (6.6%), and cardiometabolic diseases (9.0%). The differences between PAF by cause of death were never greater than 2%. Overall, the differences between estimates of SAM, PAF, and confidence interval width are small when using prevalences from both sources. Having these data available by region will allow decision-makers to implement smoking control measures based on more accurate data.

Validation of a small-area model for estimation of smoking prevalence at a subnational level.

INTRODUCTION: Small-area estimation methods are an alternative to direct survey-based estimates in cases where a survey's sample size does not suffice to ensure representativeness. Nevertheless, the information yielded by small-area estimation methods must be validated. The objective of this study was thus to validate a small-area model. METHODS: The prevalence of smokers, ex-smokers, and never smokers by sex and age group (15-34, 35-54, 55-64, 65-74, ≥75 years) was calculated in two Spanish Autonomous Regions (ARs) by applying a weighted ratio estimator (direct estimator) to data from representative surveys. These estimates were compared against those obtained with a small-area model applied to another survey, specifically the Spanish National Health Survey, which did not guarantee representativeness for these two ARs by sex and age. To evaluate the concordance of the estimates, we calculated the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the 95% confidence intervals of the differences between estimates. To assess the precision of the estimates, the coefficients of variation were obtained. RESULTS: In all cases, the ICC was ≥0.87, indicating good concordance between the direct and small-area model estimates. Slightly more than eight in ten 95% confidence intervals for the differences between estimates included zero. In all cases, the coefficient of variation of the small-area model was <30%, indicating a good degree of precision in the estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The small-area model applied to national survey data yields valid estimates of smoking prevalence by sex and age group at the AR level. These models could thus be applied to a single year's data from a national survey, which does not guarantee regional representativeness, to characterize various risk factors in a population at a subnational level.

Small-area models to assess the geographical distribution of tobacco consumption by sex and age in Spain.

INTRODUCTION: Complete and accurate data on smoking prevalence at a local level would enable health authorities to plan context-dependent smoking interventions. However, national health surveys do not generally provide direct estimates of smoking prevalence by sex and age groups at the subnational level. This study uses a small-area model-based methodology to obtain precise estimations of smoking prevalence by sex, age group and region, from a population-based survey. METHODS: The areas targeted for analysis consisted of 180 groups based on a combination of sex, age group (15-34, 35-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years), and Autonomous Region. Data on tobacco use came from the 2017 Spanish National Health Survey (2017 SNHS). In each of the 180 groups, we estimated the prevalence of smokers (S), ex-smokers (ExS) and never smokers (NS), as well as their coefficients of variation (CV), using a weighted ratio estimator (direct estimator) and a multinomial logistic model with random area effects. RESULTS: When smoking prevalence was estimated using the small-area model, the precision of direct estimates improved; the CV of S and ExS decreased on average by 26%, and those of NS by 25%. The range of S prevalence was 11-46% in men and 4-37% in women, excluding the group aged ≥75 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposes a methodology for obtaining reliable estimates of smoking prevalence in groups or areas not covered in the survey design. The model applied is a good alternative for enhancing the precision of estimates at a detailed level, at a much lower cost than that involved in conducting large-scale surveys. This method could be easily integrated into routine data processing of population health surveys. Having such estimates directly after completing a health survey would help characterize the tobacco epidemic and/or any other risk factor more precisely.

[Changes in tobacco consumption: boom of roll-your-own cigarettes and emergence of e-cigarettes]. / Cambios en el consumo de tabaco: auge del tabaco de liar e introducción de los cigarrillos electrónicos.

OBJECTIVE: To assess changes in smoking prevalence and study roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco and e-cigarette use in the Galician population between 2007 and 2015. METHODS: Data were obtained from five independent, cross-sectional studies carried out in Galicia (Spain) between 2007-2015 in the population aged 16 and over (n=8,000/year). Prevalence of use was estimated, with 95% confidence intervals, overall, according to sex and by age group, area of residence and level of education. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence decreased from 25.4% in 2007 to 21.8% in 2015. In 2007, 1.8% of current smokers declared that they had smoked RYO tobacco, compared to 18.6% in 2015. Among smokers, RYO tobacco consumption increased across all demographic groups. In both 2014 and 2015, ever use of e-cigarettes was 0.7%. E-cigarette use was more frequent in urban settings. CONCLUSION: Smoking prevalence decreased in Galicia between 2007 and 2015, and there has been rapid growth in the prevalence of RYO tobacco use. Although smokers are more likely to use e-cigarettes, both former and never smokers declared their use. The boom of RYO cigarettes and the emergence of e-cigarettes highlight the importance of having continuous surveillance systems to identify smoking behavioural changes.

The effect of post-discharge educational intervention on patients in achieving objectives in modifiable risk factors six months after discharge following an episode of acute coronary syndrome, (CAM-2 Project): a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether an intervention mainly consisting of a signed agreement between patient and physician on the objectives to be reached, improves reaching these secondary prevention objectives in modifiable cardiovascular risk factors six-months after discharge following an acute coronary syndrome. BACKGROUND: There is room to improve mid-term adherence to clinical guidelines' recommendations in coronary heart disease secondary prevention, specially non-pharmacological ones, often neglected. METHODS: In CAM-2, patients discharged after an acute coronary syndrome were randomly assigned to the intervention or the usual care group. The primary outcome was reaching therapeutic objectives in various secondary prevention variables: smoking, obesity, blood lipids, blood pressure control, exercise and taking of medication. RESULTS: 1757 patients were recruited in 64 hospitals and 1510 (762 in the intervention and 748 in the control group) attended the six-months follow-up visit. After adjustment for potentially important variables, there were, between the intervention and control group, differences in the mean reduction of body mass index (0.5 vs. 0.2; p < 0.001) and waist circumference (1.6 cm vs. 0.6 cm; p = 0.05), proportion of patients who exercise regularly and those with total cholesterol below 175 mg/dl (64.7% vs. 56.5%; p = 0.001). The reported intake of medications was high in both groups for all the drugs considered with no differences except for statins (98.1% vs. 95.9%; p = 0.029). CONCLUSIONS: At least in the short term, lifestyle changes among coronary heart disease patients are achievable by intensifying the responsibility of the patient himself by means of a simple and feasible intervention.

[Effect of a simple educational program for physicians on adherence to secondary prevention measures after discharge following acute coronary syndrome. The CAM Project]. / Efecto de un programa sencillo de educación de los profesionales en el cumplimiento de medidas de prevención secundaria en el momento del alta hospitalaria tras un síndrome coronario agudo. Proyecto CAM.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Adherence to established guidelines for patients discharged from the hospital after acute coronary syndrome is known to be suboptimal. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of a program for physicians centered on the treatment of acute coronary syndrome. PATIENTS AND METHOD: 39 hospitals participated. INTERVENTION: a set of measures was developed by consensus for the creation and distribution of educational materials. OUTCOMES OF INTEREST: Proportion of patients in whom ejection fraction and residual ischemia were evaluated, treatment at discharge, and health and dietary recommendations to patients (smoking, diet, exercise, etc.) referred to all patients in whom these measures or treatments should have been used ("ideal patients"). Changes were assessed with four cross-sectional surveys. RESULTS: A total of 1157, 1162, 1149 and 1158 patients were included. There were no relevant differences between these groups in baseline characteristics. In general, there was improvement in all variables between the first and the last survey. The proportion of patients who were weighed and measured increased (from 33.5% to 53.4%; P<.0001), as did the proportion of those in whom cholesterol was measured early (42.6 to 53.7%; P=.006). The proportion in whom residual ischemia was not measured despite indications for this test decreased (18.2% to 10.8%; P=.013), and the proportion increased for appropriate treatment with statins on discharge (68.6% to 81.4%; P<.0001), advice to quit smoking (60.1% to 72.2%; P<.0001) and advice to exercise (58.3% to 67.4%; P=.003). CONCLUSIONS: The educational intervention seems to have had a positive effect on improving the appropriateness of procedures and treatments for patients discharged after acute coronary syndrome.