Predicting anti-cancer drug combination responses with a temporal cell state network model.

Cancer chemotherapy combines multiple drugs, but predicting the effects of drug combinations on cancer cell proliferation remains challenging, even for simple in vitro systems. We hypothesized that by combining knowledge of single drug dose responses and cell state transition network dynamics, we could predict how a population of cancer cells will respond to drug combinations. We tested this hypothesis here using three targeted inhibitors of different cell cycle states in two different cell lines in vitro. We formulated a Markov model to capture temporal cell state transitions between different cell cycle phases, with single drug data constraining how drug doses affect transition rates. This model was able to predict the landscape of all three different pairwise drug combinations across all dose ranges for both cell lines with no additional data. While further application to different cell lines, more drugs, additional cell state networks, and more complex co-culture or in vivo systems remain, this work demonstrates how currently available or attainable information could be sufficient for prediction of drug combination response for single cell lines in vitro.

Relating individual cell division events to single-cell ERK and Akt activity time courses.

Biochemical correlates of stochastic single-cell fates have been elusive, even for the well-studied mammalian cell cycle. We monitored single-cell dynamics of the ERK and Akt pathways, critical cell cycle progression hubs and anti-cancer drug targets, and paired them to division events in the same single cells using the non-transformed MCF10A epithelial line. Following growth factor treatment, in cells that divide both ERK and Akt activities are significantly higher within the S-G2 time window (~ 8.5-40 h). Such differences were much smaller in the pre-S-phase, restriction point window which is traditionally associated with ERK and Akt activity dependence, suggesting unappreciated roles for ERK and Akt in S through G2. Simple metrics of central tendency in this time window are associated with subsequent cell division fates. ERK activity was more strongly associated with division fates than Akt activity, suggesting Akt activity dynamics may contribute less to the decision driving cell division in this context. We also find that ERK and Akt activities are less correlated with each other in cells that divide. Network reconstruction experiments demonstrated that this correlation behavior was likely not due to crosstalk, as ERK and Akt do not interact in this context, in contrast to other transformed cell types. Overall, our findings support roles for ERK and Akt activity throughout the cell cycle as opposed to just before the restriction point, and suggest ERK activity dynamics may be more important than Akt activity dynamics for driving cell division in this non-transformed context.