Ocrelizumab Treatment in Patients with Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: Short-term Safety Results from a Compassionate Use Programme in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: In January 2018, the European Union (EU) approved ocrelizumab in relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) and as the first disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) with efficacy proven in a phase 3 randomised controlled trial. Eleven months prior to the European regulatory approval, a compassionate use programme (CUP) made ocrelizumab available to 489 patients with PPMS in Germany, thereby for the first time providing a therapeutic option to patients with PPMS who could not participate in ocrelizumab studies. Here, we report real-world patient characteristics and short-term safety data of patients with PPMS treated with ocrelizumab in this CUP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This CUP was initiated in February 2017 - shortly before US Food and Drug administration approval in March 2017 - and ended in January 2018, following ocrelizumab approval in the EU. Adult patients (age ≥18 years) with PPMS who had a positive benefit/risk ratio according to the treating physician were eligible for inclusion at German treatment centres. The main exclusion criteria were current/recent treatment with other immune therapies and unresolved/chronic/active infections. Patients received methylprednisolone and an antihistamine before treatment with intravenous ocrelizumab in 6-month cycles. The first ocrelizumab dose was a 300 mg infusion followed by a second 300 mg infusion 2 weeks later; subsequent doses were delivered as a single 600 mg infusion. Adverse events were reported immediately. RESULTS: Of 580 requests received from 104 centres, 525 patients met the eligibility criteria. Thirty-five patients did not participate due to withdrawal by the treating physician, and one due to death prior to treatment. A total of 489 patients received at least one 600 mg dose of ocrelizumab (administered as two 300 mg infusions) and 51 received a second dose. Due to termination of the CUP upon marketing authorisation, the maximum follow-up period was 12 months. Median patient age was 52 years (range: 24-73), and 49% were female. Previous immunomodulatory or immunosuppressive therapies had been received by 41% of patients, with the most commonly used being glucocorticoids, mitoxantrone, interferon-ß and glatiramer acetate. Patients with a previous malignancy, serious disease or infection (42 patients, 9%) had recovered from this prior to the CUP. Nine serious adverse events and 70 non-serious adverse events were reported in 40 patients. Adverse event categories were generally consistent with the known safety profile of ocrelizumab; one patient had carry-over progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) due to previous natalizumab treatment. CONCLUSION: This CUP provides first real-world observations of ocrelizumab for the treatment of PPMS in a large patient cohort in Germany, supporting that ocrelizumab is generally well-tolerated in clinical practice. Physicians should be vigilant for early symptoms of PML, as to date, 9 PML cases that were all confounded have been reported in patients treated with ocrelizumab worldwide, with 8 carry-over cases from a prior DMT.

Comparative Effectiveness of Non-cisplatin First-line Therapies for Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma: Phase 2 IMvigor210 Study Versus US Patients Treated in the Veterans Health Administration.

BACKGROUND: First-line treatments for cisplatin-ineligible patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) include carboplatin-based chemotherapy and checkpoint inhibitors such as atezolizumab (anti-PD-L1). OBJECTIVE: To compare overall survival (OS) among patients with mUC treated in the first-line setting with atezolizumab versus carboplatin-based chemotherapies (any carboplatin-based regimens or carboplatin-gemcitabine). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cisplatin-ineligible patients with mUC from the phase 2 trial IMvigor210 (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02951767) treated with atezolizumab and patients from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) health care system (2006-2017, with IMvigor210 eligibility criteria applied using proxy measurements) treated according to normal clinical practice. INTERVENTIONS: IMvigor210 cohort 1 patients were treated with atezolizumab, and real-world VHA cohorts were treated with carboplatin-based regimens. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Entropy-balance weighting was applied to balance prespecified baseline patient characteristics. OS was analyzed using weighted Kaplan-Meier and Cox methods. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The median OS was 15.0 mo with atezolizumab (n = 110), 12.1 mo with any carboplatin-based chemotherapy (n = 282), and 8.7 mo with carboplatin-gemcitabine (n = 120). An OS benefit occurred with atezolizumab versus carboplatin-based regimens after 9 mo (hazard ratio [HR] 0.43; p = 0.004) and with atezolizumab versus carboplatin-gemcitabine after 5 mo (HR 0.52; p = 0.005). Study limitations include a predominantly male VHA cohort and ≤24-mo follow-up. Adjustment for confounding, a potential limitation of nonrandomized studies, was limited by the availability of clinical measurements in the VHA data, which allowed for replication of IMvigor210 exclusions in the VHA cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: First-line atezolizumab for cisplatin-ineligible mUC may provide an OS benefit over carboplatin-based treatments after 5-9 mo, depending on the regimen. PATIENT SUMMARY: Many patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma are ineligible for cisplatin-based chemotherapy. This study compared patients from a clinical trial receiving the immunotherapeutic agent atezolizumab with those in Veterans Health Administration clinical practice receiving carboplatin-based chemotherapy. Atezolizumab provided a survival benefit over chemotherapy after 5-9 mo.

The Combined Effect of Cancer and Cardiometabolic Conditions on the Mortality Burden in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: The number of older people living with cancer and cardiometabolic conditions is increasing, but little is known about how specific combinations of these conditions impact mortality. METHODS: A total of 22,692 participants aged 65 years and older from four international cohorts were followed-up for mortality for an average of 10 years (8,596 deaths). Data were harmonized across cohorts and mutually exclusive groups of disease combinations were created for cancer, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and diabetes at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models for all-cause mortality were used to estimate the age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio and rate advancement period (RAP) (in years). RESULTS: At baseline, 23.6% (n = 5,116) of participants reported having one condition and 4.2% (n = 955) had two or more conditions. Data from all studies combined showed that the RAP increased with each additional condition. Diabetes advanced the rate of dying by the most years (5.26 years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.53-6.00), but the effect of any single condition was smaller than the effect of disease combinations. Some combinations had a significantly greater impact on the period by which the rate of death was advanced than others with the same number of conditions, for example, 10.9 years (95% CI, 9.4-12.6) for MI and diabetes versus 6.4 years (95% CI, 4.3-8.5) for cancer and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Combinations of cancer and cardiometabolic conditions accelerate mortality rates in older adults differently. Although most studies investigating mortality associated with multimorbidity used disease counts, these provide little guidance for managing complex patients as they age.

Alcohol consumption and lung cancer risk: A pooled analysis from the International Lung Cancer Consortium and the SYNERGY study.

BACKGROUND: There is inadequate evidence to determine whether there is an effect of alcohol consumption on lung cancer risk. We conducted a pooled analysis of data from the International Lung Cancer Consortium and the SYNERGY study to investigate this possible association by type of beverage with adjustment for other potential confounders. METHODS: Twenty one case-control studies and one cohort study with alcohol-intake data obtained from questionnaires were included in this pooled analysis (19,149 cases and 362,340 controls). Adjusted odds ratios (OR) or hazard ratios (HR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for each measure of alcohol consumption. Effect estimates were combined using random or fixed-effects models where appropriate. Associations were examined for overall lung cancer and by histological type. RESULTS: We observed an inverse association between overall risk of lung cancer and consumption of alcoholic beverages compared to non-drinkers, but the association was not monotonic. The lowest risk was observed for persons who consumed 10-19.9 g/day ethanol (OR vs. non-drinkers = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.91), where 1 drink is approximately 12-15 g. This J-shaped association was most prominent for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). The association with all lung cancer varied little by type of alcoholic beverage, but there were notable differences for SCC. We observed an association with beer intake (OR for ≥20 g/day vs nondrinker = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.90). CONCLUSIONS: Whether the non-monotonic associations we observed or the positive association between beer drinking and squamous cell carcinoma reflect real effects await future analyses and insights about possible biological mechanisms.

Genetic determinants of telomere length and risk of pancreatic cancer: A PANDoRA study.

Telomere deregulation is a hallmark of cancer. Telomere length measured in lymphocytes (LTL) has been shown to be a risk marker for several cancers. For pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) consensus is lacking whether risk is associated with long or short telomeres. Mendelian randomization approaches have shown that a score built from SNPs associated with LTL could be used as a robust risk marker. We explored this approach in a large scale study within the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. We analyzed 10 SNPs (ZNF676-rs409627, TERT-rs2736100, CTC1-rs3027234, DHX35-rs6028466, PXK-rs6772228, NAF1-rs7675998, ZNF208-rs8105767, OBFC1-rs9420907, ACYP2-rs11125529 and TERC-rs10936599) alone and combined in a LTL genetic score ("teloscore", which explains 2.2% of the telomere variability) in relation to PDAC risk in 2,374 cases and 4,326 controls. We identified several associations with PDAC risk, among which the strongest were with the TERT-rs2736100 SNP (OR = 1.54; 95%CI 1.35-1.76; p = 1.54 × 10-10 ) and a novel one with the NAF1-rs7675998 SNP (OR = 0.80; 95%CI 0.73-0.88; p = 1.87 × 10-6 , ptrend = 3.27 × 10-7 ). The association of short LTL, measured by the teloscore, with PDAC risk reached genome-wide significance (p = 2.98 × 10-9 for highest vs. lowest quintile; p = 1.82 × 10-10 as a continuous variable). In conclusion, we present a novel genome-wide candidate SNP for PDAC risk (TERT-rs2736100), a completely new signal (NAF1-rs7675998) approaching genome-wide significance and we report a strong association between the teloscore and risk of pancreatic cancer, suggesting that telomeres are a potential risk factor for pancreatic cancer.

E-cadherin breast tumor expression, risk factors and survival: Pooled analysis of 5,933 cases from 12 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium.

E-cadherin (CDH1) is a putative tumor suppressor gene implicated in breast carcinogenesis. Yet, whether risk factors or survival differ by E-cadherin tumor expression is unclear. We evaluated E-cadherin tumor immunohistochemistry expression using tissue microarrays of 5,933 female invasive breast cancers from 12 studies from the Breast Cancer Consortium. H-scores were calculated and case-case odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression. Survival analyses were performed using Cox regression models. All analyses were stratified by estrogen receptor (ER) status and histologic subtype. E-cadherin low cases (N = 1191, 20%) were more frequently of lobular histology, low grade, >2 cm, and HER2-negative. Loss of E-cadherin expression (score < 100) was associated with menopausal hormone use among ER-positive tumors (ever compared to never users, OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.97-1.59), which was stronger when we evaluated complete loss of E-cadherin (i.e. H-score = 0), OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.06-2.33. Breast cancer specific mortality was unrelated to E-cadherin expression in multivariable models. E-cadherin low expression is associated with lobular histology, tumor characteristics and menopausal hormone use, with no evidence of an association with breast cancer specific survival. These data support loss of E-cadherin expression as an important marker of tumor subtypes.

Polygenic hazard score to guide screening for aggressive prostate cancer: development and validation in large scale cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age. DESIGN: Analysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa. SETTING: Multiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium. PARTICIPANTS: All consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set. RESULTS: In the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P<10-16). When men in the validation set with high scores (>98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.

Burden of hip fracture using disability-adjusted life-years: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts in the CHANCES consortium.

BACKGROUND: No studies have estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost due to hip fractures using real-life follow-up cohort data. We aimed to quantify the burden of disease due to incident hip fracture using DALYs in prospective cohorts in the CHANCES consortium, and to calculate population attributable fractions based on DALYs for specific risk factors. METHODS: We used data from six cohorts of participants aged 50 years or older at recruitment to calculate DALYs. We applied disability weights proposed by the National Osteoporosis Foundation and did a series of sensitivity analyses to examine the robustness of DALY estimates. We calculated population attributable fractions for smoking, body-mass index (BMI), physical activity, alcohol intake, type 2 diabetes and parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, and oral contraceptives in women. We calculated summary risk estimates across cohorts with pooled analysis and random-effects meta-analysis methods. FINDINGS: 223 880 men and women were followed up for a mean of 13 years (SD 6). 7724 (3·5%) participants developed an incident hip fracture, of whom 413 (5·3%) died as a result. 5964 DALYs (27 per 1000 individuals) were lost due to hip fractures, 1230 (20·6%) of which were in the group aged 75-79 years. 4150 (69·6%) DALYs were attributed to disability. Current smoking was the risk factor responsible for the greatest hip fracture burden (7·5%, 95% CI 5·2-9·7) followed by physical inactivity (5·5%, 2·1-8·5), history of diabetes (2·8%, 2·1-4·0), and low to average BMI (2·0%, 1·4-2·7), whereas low alcohol consumption (0·01-2·5 g per day) and high BMI had a protective effect. INTERPRETATION: Hip fracture can lead to a substantial loss of healthy life-years in elderly people. National public health policies should be strengthened to reduce hip fracture incidence and mortality. Primary prevention measures should be strengthened to prevent falls, and reduce smoking and a sedentary lifestyle. FUNDING: European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.

Self-rated health and all-cause and cause-specific mortality of older adults: Individual data meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies in the CHANCES Consortium.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate, among the elderly, the association of self-rated health (SRH) with mortality, and to identify determinants of self-rating health as "at-least-good". STUDY DESIGN: Individual data on SRH and important covariates were obtained for 424,791 European and United States residents, ≥60 years at recruitment (1982-2008), in eight prospective studies in the Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES). In each study, adjusted mortality ratios (hazard ratios, HRs) in relation to SRH were calculated and subsequently combined with random-effect meta-analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality. RESULTS: Within the median 12.5 years of follow-up, 93,014 (22%) deaths occurred. SRH "fair" or "poor" vs. "at-least-good" was associated with increased mortality: HRs 1.46 (95% CI 1·23-1.74) and 2.31 (1.79-2.99), respectively. These associations were evident: for cardiovascular and, to a lesser extent, cancer mortality, and within-study, within-subgroup analyses. Accounting for lifestyle, sociodemographic, somatometric factors and, subsequently, for medical history explained only a modest amount of the unadjusted associations. Factors favourably associated with SRH were: sex (males), age (younger-old), education (high), marital status (married/cohabiting), physical activity (active), body mass index (non-obese), alcohol consumption (low to moderate) and previous morbidity (absence). CONCLUSION: SRH provides a quick and simple tool for assessing health and identifying groups of elders at risk of early mortality that may be useful also in clinical settings. Modifying determinants of favourably rating health, e.g. by increasing physical activity and/or by eliminating obesity, may be important for older adults to "feel healthy" and "be healthy".

Vitamin D Supplementation Trials Aimed at Reducing Mortality Have Much Higher Power When Focusing on People with Low Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations.

Background: Evidence of an inverse association between serum vitamin D and mortality from epidemiological studies has prompted efforts to reduce mortality by vitamin D supplementation, either in targeted interventions for people with vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency, or in untargeted interventions regardless of baseline vitamin D status.Objective: We aimed to assess the expected impact of the 2 different approaches on effect sizes and power of intervention studies.Methods: Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] were measured in 9579 participants aged 50-75 y in the German Epidemiologische Studie zu Chancen der Verhütung, Früherkennung und optimierten Therapie chronischer Erkrankungen in der älteren Bevölkerung (ESTHER) study who were followed for mortality for a median of 12.4 y. We estimated adjusted HRs of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer for defined increases in serum 25(OH)D by Cox regression, both across the full range of 25(OH)D concentrations and for those with vitamin D insufficiency [30 nmol/L ≤ 25(OH)D < 50 nmol/L] or deficiency [25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] only, and we calculated the power of intervention studies achieving those effect sizes.Results: An inverse association between serum 25(OH)D and mortality was observed only for participants with vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency and was strongest for the latter. Accordingly, the expected effects were much stronger and the expected power was much higher for interventions that targeted these groups than for untargeted interventions. For example, a targeted intervention study with 10,000 older adults (age 50-75 y) with serum 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L that increases serum 25(OH)D concentrations by 20 nmol/L in the intervention group (n = 5000) would be expected to yield a 26% reduction of all-cause mortality that could be detected with 89% power within 5 y of follow-up compared with a 10% mortality reduction and 20% power in an untargeted intervention study of the same size.Conclusions: Vitamin D supplementation trials aimed at reducing mortality in older adults have much higher power when focused on those with low serum 25(OH)D concentrations.

Polypharmacy and mortality: new insights from a large cohort of older adults by detection of effect modification by multi-morbidity and comprehensive correction of confounding by indication.

PURPOSE: The objective was to investigate whether the association of polypharmacy with non-cancer mortality is independent from comorbidity and is not a result of confounding by indication. METHODS: Analyses were conducted in 2687 participants of a German, population-based cohort of older adults with data collection 2008-2010. Polypharmacy was defined as ≥5 drugs and hyperpolypharmacy as ≥10 drugs. Drugs without relevant propensity of causing adverse drug reactions or drug-drug interactions were not counted. Confounding by indication was addressed by model adjustment for a propensity score for polypharmacy. RESULTS: The median age of study participants was 70 years, 10.7% had multi-morbidity, and 47.4% took five drugs or more (8.6% took ≥10 drugs). During 4.4 years of follow-up, 87 participants died of a cause other than cancer. Statistically significant, more than twofold increased non-cancer mortality was observed for subjects with polypharmacy or hyperpolypharmacy in a model adjusted for age, sex, education, lifestyle variables, and comorbidity, but associations lost statistical significance after additional adjustment for a propensity score for polypharmacy. However, a significant interaction of hyperpolypharmacy and multi-morbidity was detected (p = 0.019). The hazard ratio for the association of hyperpolypharmacy with non-cancer mortality was 1.42 (95%CI 0.57; 3.57) in subjects without multi-morbidity and 0.51 (95%CI 0.11; 2.27) in subjects with multi-morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy was not independently associated with non-cancer mortality. This study highlights the importance to adjust for confounding by indication in studies on polypharmacy by a propensity score. The detected interaction suggests that hyperpolypharmacy can be indicated in subjects with multi-morbidity and may only be harmful in subjects without multi-morbidity.

Education achievement and type 2 diabetes-what mediates the relationship in older adults? Data from the ESTHER study: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The study aims to identify the mediating factors of the relationship between education achievement and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in older adults. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Participants were recruited from the German federal state of Saarland. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were excluded if they had prevalent T2DM or missing data on prevalent T2DM, missing or zero follow-up time for incident T2DM or were under 50 years of age. The total sample consisted of 7462 individuals aged 50-75 years (42.8% men, mean age 61.7 years) at baseline (2000-02). The median follow-up time was 8.0 years. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards regression was initially used to determine the direct association between education achievement and incident T2DM. Using the Baron and Kenny approach, we then investigated the associations between education achievement and incident T2DM with the potential mediators. The contribution of each of the putative mediating variables was then calculated. RESULTS: A clear socioeconomic gradient was observed with regard to T2DM incidence with the lowest educated individuals at a greater risk of developing the disease during the follow-up period: HR (95% CI) high education: 0.52 (0.34 to 0.80); medium education: 0.80 (0.66 to 0.96). Seven of the variables considered explained a proportion of the education-T2DM relationship (body mass index, alcohol consumption, hypertension, fasting triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, physical activity and smoking status), where the contribution of the variables ranged from 1.0% to 17.7%. Overall, the mediators explained 31.7% of the relationship. CONCLUSION: By identifying the possible mediating factors of the relationship between education achievement and incident T2DM in older adults, the results of this study can be used to assist with the development of public health strategies that aim to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in T2DM.

Menstrual and reproductive factors and lung cancer risk: A pooled analysis from the international lung cancer consortium.

Many clinical features of lung cancer are different in women and men. Sex steroid hormones exert effects in nonreproductive organs, such as the lungs. The association between menstrual and childbearing factors and the risk of lung cancer among women is still debated. We performed a pooled analysis of eight studies contributing to the International Lung Cancer Consortium (4,386 cases and 4,177 controls). Pooled associations between menstrual or reproductive factors and lung cancer were estimated using multivariable unconditional logistic regression. Subgroup analyses were done for menopause status, smoking habits and histology. We found no strong support for an association of age at menarche and at menopause with lung cancer, but peri/postmenopausal women were at higher risk compared to premenopausal (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.11-1.93). Premenopausal women showed increased risks associated with parity (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.03-2.93) and number of children (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.21-6.93 for more than 3 children; p for trend 0.01) and decreased with breastfeeding (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.30-0.98). In contrast, peri/postmenopausal subjects had ORs around unity for the same exposures. No major effect modification was exerted by smoking status or cancer histology. Menstrual and reproductive factors may play a role in the genesis of lung cancer, yet the mechanisms are unclear, and smoking remains the most important modifiable risk factor. More investigations in large well-designed studies are needed to confirm these findings and to clarify the underlying mechanisms of gender differences in lung cancer risk.

DNA methylation signatures in peripheral blood strongly predict all-cause mortality.

DNA methylation (DNAm) has been revealed to play a role in various diseases. Here we performed epigenome-wide screening and validation to identify mortality-related DNAm signatures in a general population-based cohort with up to 14 years follow-up. In the discovery panel in a case-cohort approach, 11,063 CpGs reach genome-wide significance (FDR<0.05). 58 CpGs, mapping to 38 well-known disease-related genes and 14 intergenic regions, are confirmed in a validation panel. A mortality risk score based on ten selected CpGs exhibits strong association with all-cause mortality, showing hazard ratios (95% CI) of 2.16 (1.10-4.24), 3.42 (1.81-6.46) and 7.36 (3.69-14.68), respectively, for participants with scores of 1, 2-5 and 5+ compared with a score of 0. These associations are confirmed in an independent cohort and are independent from the 'epigenetic clock'. In conclusion, DNAm of multiple disease-related genes are strongly linked to mortality outcomes. The DNAm-based risk score might be informative for risk assessment and stratification.

Alcohol and lung cancer risk among never smokers: A pooled analysis from the international lung cancer consortium and the SYNERGY study.

It is not clear whether alcohol consumption is associated with lung cancer risk. The relationship is likely confounded by smoking, complicating the interpretation of previous studies. We examined the association of alcohol consumption and lung cancer risk in a large pooled international sample, minimizing potential confounding of tobacco consumption by restricting analyses to never smokers. Our study included 22 case-control and cohort studies with a total of 2548 never-smoking lung cancer patients and 9362 never-smoking controls from North America, Europe and Asia within the International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO) and SYNERGY Consortium. Alcohol consumption was categorized into amounts consumed (grams per day) and also modelled as a continuous variable using restricted cubic splines for potential non-linearity. Analyses by histologic sub-type were included. Associations by type of alcohol consumed (wine, beer and liquor) were also investigated. Alcohol consumption was inversely associated with lung cancer risk with evidence most strongly supporting lower risk for light and moderate drinkers relative to non-drinkers (>0-4.9 g per day: OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.70-0.90; 5-9.9 g per day: OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.69-0.99; 10-19.9 g per day: OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.65-0.96). Inverse associations were found for consumption of wine and liquor, but not beer. The results indicate that alcohol consumption is inversely associated with lung cancer risk, particularly among subjects with low to moderate consumption levels, and among wine and liquor drinkers, but not beer drinkers. Although our results should have no relevant bias from the confounding effect of smoking we cannot preclude that confounding by other factors contributed to the observed associations. Confounding in relation to the non-drinker reference category may be of particular importance.

Tobacco smoking and smoking-related DNA methylation are associated with the development of frailty among older adults.

Tobacco smoking is a preventable environmental factor that contributes to a wide spectrum of age-related health outcomes; however, its association with the development of frailty is not yet well established. We examined the associations of self-reported smoking indicators, serum cotinine levels and smoking-related DNA methylation biomarkers with a quantitative frailty index (FI) in 2 independent subsets of older adults (age 50-75) recruited in Saarland, Germany in 2000 - 2002 (discovery set: n = 978, validation set: n = 531). We obtained DNA methylation profiles in whole blood samples by Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip and calculated the FI according to the method of Mitnitski and Rockwood. Mixed linear regression models were implemented to assess the associations between smoking indicators and the FI. After controlling for potential covariates, current smoking, cumulative smoking exposure (pack-years), and time after smoking cessation (years) were significantly associated with the FI (P-value < 0.05). In the discovery panel, 17 out of 151 previously identified smoking-related CpG sites were associated with the FI after correction for multiple testing (FDR < 0.05). Nine of them survived in the validation phase and were designated as frailty-associated loci. A smoking index (SI) based on the 9 loci manifested a monotonic association with the FI. In conclusion, this study suggested that epigenetic alterations could play a role in smoking-associated development of frailty. The identified CpG sites have the potential to be prognostic biomarkers of frailty and frailty-related health outcomes. Our findings and the underlying mechanisms should be followed up in further, preferably longitudinal studies.

Is Polypharmacy Associated with Frailty in Older People? Results From the ESTHER Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between polypharmacy and frailty. DESIGN: Longitudinal, observational cohort study. SETTING: Saarland, Germany. PARTICIPANTS: 3,058 community-dwelling adults aged between 57 and 84 years. MEASUREMENTS: Frailty was assessed according to the frailty phenotype, described by Fried et al. Polypharmacy and hyperpolypharmacy were defined as the concomitant use of five or more and 10 or more drugs, respectively. We assessed associations between polypharmacy and prevalent and incident frailty within 3 years of follow-up by logistic regression models controlled for multiple potential confounders including comorbidity. Additionally, cubic splines were used to assess dose-response associations. RESULTS: Polypharmacy was reported in 39.1% (n = 1,194), and hyperpolypharmacy in 8.9% (n = 273) of participants. Prevalent frailty was present in 271 (8.9%) participants; 186 (9.3%) of 1,998 non-frail participants with follow-up data became frail within 3 years. After adjustment, polypharmacy and hyperpolypharmacy were associated with prevalent frailty with adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) of 2.30 (1.60-3.31) and 4.97 (2.97-8.32), respectively. Polypharmacy (odds ratio (OR) 1.51 (1.05-2.16)) and hyperpolypharmacy (OR 1.90 (1.10-3.28)) were also independent predictors of incident frailty. Furthermore, there was a moderate exposure-response relationship between the number of medicines and prevalent as well as incident frailty. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that polypharmacy is associated with frailty. Further research should address the potential benefit of reducing of inappropriate polypharmacy and better pharmacotherapeutic management for preventing medication-associated frailty.

Pneumonia in the Noninstitutionalized Older Population.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a common and potentially serious disease, with an incidence of ca. 300 per 100 000 persons per year. Until now, there have been only a few population-based studies of risk factors for pneumonia. METHODS: From 2000 to 2002, nearly 10 000 persons aged 50 to 75 were recruited into the prospective ESTHER cohort study while visiting their family physician for a check-up. The mean duration of follow-up was 10.6 years. Data on newly diagnosed pneumonia were acquired from the participants and their physicians by means of standardized questionnaires. Potential associations with various predictors were studied in survival-time regression models. RESULTS: 435 participants had pneumonia at least once during follow-up. The cumulative 10-year-incidence was 4.5% (95% confidence interval [4.0; 4.9]). Multiple regression revealed that age (relative risk [RR]: 1.43 [1.22; 1.67] per 10 years), current cigarette smoking (RR: 1.56 [1.19; 2.05], compared with never having smoked), and known congestive heart failure (RR: 1.65 [1.24; 2.20]) were independently associated with an elevated risk of pneumonia. The risk was insignificantly elevated in persons with diabetes mellitus (RR: 1.29 [0.98; 1.68]). Alcohol consumption, obesity, stroke, and cancer were not associated with an elevated risk of pneumonia in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. CONCLUSION: Pneumonia plays an important role in the medical care of non-institutionalized older people. With the aid of the predictors identified in this study, primary care physicians can identify patients at risk, smokers can gain additional motivation to quit, treatment compliance can be increased, and patients may become more willing to be vaccinated as recommended in the current guidelines.

Genetic Risk Can Be Decreased: Quitting Smoking Decreases and Delays Lung Cancer for Smokers With High and Low CHRNA5 Risk Genotypes - A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Recent meta-analyses show that individuals with high risk variants in CHRNA5 on chromosome 15q25 are likely to develop lung cancer earlier than those with low-risk genotypes. The same high-risk genetic variants also predict nicotine dependence and delayed smoking cessation. It is unclear whether smoking cessation confers the same benefits in terms of lung cancer risk reduction for those who possess CHRNA5 risk variants versus those who do not. METHODS: Meta-analyses examined the association between smoking cessation and lung cancer risk in 15 studies of individuals with European ancestry who possessed varying rs16969968 genotypes (N=12,690 ever smokers, including 6988 cases of lung cancer and 5702 controls) in the International Lung Cancer Consortium. RESULTS: Smoking cessation (former vs. current smokers) was associated with a lower likelihood of lung cancer (OR=0.48, 95%CI=0.30-0.75, p=0.0015). Among lung cancer patients, smoking cessation was associated with a 7-year delay in median age of lung cancer diagnosis (HR=0.68, 95%CI=0.61-0.77, p=4.9∗10-10). The CHRNA5 rs16969968 risk genotype (AA) was associated with increased risk and earlier diagnosis for lung cancer, but the beneficial effects of smoking cessation were very similar in those with and without the risk genotype. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that quitting smoking is highly beneficial in reducing lung cancer risks for smokers regardless of their CHRNA5 rs16969968 genetic risk status. Smokers with high-risk CHRNA5 genotypes, on average, can largely eliminate their elevated genetic risk for lung cancer by quitting smoking- cutting their risk of lung cancer in half and delaying its onset by 7years for those who develop it. These results: 1) underscore the potential value of smoking cessation for all smokers, 2) suggest that CHRNA5 rs16969968 genotype affects lung cancer diagnosis through its effects on smoking, and 3) have potential value for framing preventive interventions for those who smoke.

Epigenetic age acceleration predicts cancer, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality in a German case cohort.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have developed models predicting methylation age from DNA methylation in blood and other tissues (epigenetic clock) and suggested the difference between DNA methylation and chronological ages as a marker of healthy aging. The goal of this study was to confirm and expand such observations by investigating whether different concepts of the epigenetic clocks in a population-based cohort are associated with cancer, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: DNA methylation age was estimated in a cohort of 1863 older people, and the difference between age predicted by DNA methylation and chronological age (Δage) was calculated. A case-cohort design and weighted proportional Cox hazard models were used to estimate associations of Δage with cancer, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality. Hazard ratios for Δage (per 5 years) calculated using the epigenetic clock developed by Horvath were 1.23 (95 % CI 1.10-1.38) for all-cause mortality, 1.22 (95 % CI 1.03-1.45) for cancer mortality, and 1.19 (95 % CI 0.98-1.43) for cardiovascular mortality after adjustment for batch effects, age, sex, educational level, history of chronic diseases, hypertension, smoking status, body mass index, and leucocyte distribution. Associations were similar but weaker for Δage calculated using the epigenetic clock developed by Hannum. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that age acceleration in terms of the difference between age predicted by DNA methylation and chronological age is an independent predictor of all-cause and cause-specific mortality and may be useful as a general marker of healthy aging.