Cost-Effectiveness of Annual Prostate MRI and Potential MRI-Guided Biopsy After Prostate-Specific Antigen Test Results.

Importance: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and potential MRI-guided biopsy enable enhanced identification of clinically significant prostate cancer. Despite proven efficacy, MRI and potential MRI-guided biopsy remain costly, and there is limited evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of this approach in general and for different prostate-specific antigen (PSA) strata. Objective: To examine the cost-effectiveness of integrating annual MRI and potential MRI-guided biopsy as part of clinical decision-making for men after being screened for prostate cancer compared with standard biopsy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using a decision analytic Markov cohort model, an economic evaluation was conducted projecting outcomes over 10 years for a hypothetical cohort of 65-year-old men in the US with 4 different PSA strata (<2.5 ng/mL, 2.5-4.0 ng/mL, 4.1-10.0 ng/mL, >10 ng/mL) identified by screening through Monte Carlo microsimulation with 10 000 trials. Model inputs for probabilities, costs in 2020 US dollars, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were from the literature and expert consultation. The model was specifically designed to reflect the US health care system, adopting a federal payer perspective (ie, Medicare). Exposures: Magnetic resonance imaging with potential MRI-guided biopsy and standard biopsy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY was estimated. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: For the 3 PSA strata of 2.5 ng/mL or greater, the MRI and potential MRI-guided biopsy strategy was cost-effective compared with standard biopsy (PSA 2.5-4.0 ng/mL: base-case ICER, $21 131/QALY; PSA 4.1-10.0 ng/mL: base-case ICER, $12 336/QALY; PSA >10.0 ng/mL: base-case ICER, $6000/QALY). Results varied depending on the diagnostic accuracy of MRI and potential MRI-guided biopsy. Results of probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that the MRI and potential MRI-guided biopsy strategy was cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY in a range between 76% and 81% of simulations for each of the 3 PSA strata of 2.5 ng/mL or more. Conclusions and Relevance: This economic evaluation of a hypothetical cohort suggests that an annual MRI and potential MRI-guided biopsy was a cost-effective option from a US federal payer perspective compared with standard biopsy for newly eligible male Medicare beneficiaries with a serum PSA level of 2.5 ng/mL or more.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission by HIV Risk Group and Along the HIV Care Continuum: A Contrast of 6 US Cities.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum within different HIV transmission risk groups in 6 US cities. METHODS: We used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial behavior-specific or ethnic behavior-specific and risk behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state, and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, nonacute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year. RESULTS: Individuals with undiagnosed nonacute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% (26.7%-44.9%) in New York City to 64.9% (47.0%-71.6%) in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in 4 of 6 cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person-years, ranging from 76.4 (58.9-135.9) in Miami to 160.2 (85.7-302.8) in Baltimore. CONCLUSION: These findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.

The Potential Epidemiological Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic and the Cost-effectiveness of Linked, Opt-out HIV Testing: A Modeling Study in 6 US Cities.

BACKGROUND: Widespread viral and serological testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may present a unique opportunity to also test for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We estimated the potential impact of adding linked, opt-out HIV testing alongside SARS-CoV-2 testing on the HIV incidence and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in 6 US cities. METHODS: Using a previously calibrated dynamic HIV transmission model, we constructed 3 sets of scenarios for each city: (1) sustained current levels of HIV-related treatment and prevention services (status quo); (2) temporary disruptions in health services and changes in sexual and injection risk behaviors at discrete levels between 0%-50%; and (3) linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing offered to 10%-90% of the adult population in addition to Scenario 2. We estimated the cumulative number of HIV infections between 2020-2025 and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of linked HIV testing over 20 years. RESULTS: In the absence of linked, opt-out HIV testing, we estimated a total of a 16.5% decrease in HIV infections between 2020-2025 in the best-case scenario (50% reduction in risk behaviors and no service disruptions), and a 9.0% increase in the worst-case scenario (no behavioral change and 50% reduction in service access). We estimated that HIV testing (offered at 10%-90% levels) could avert a total of 576-7225 (1.6%-17.2%) new infections. The intervention would require an initial investment of $20.6M-$220.7M across cities; however, the intervention would ultimately result in savings in health-care costs in each city. CONCLUSIONS: A campaign in which HIV testing is linked with SARS-CoV-2 testing could substantially reduce the HIV incidence and reduce direct and indirect health care costs attributable to HIV.

Can the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative transition the USA towards HIV/AIDS epidemic control?

: Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for six USA cities, we projected HIV incidence from 2020 to 2040 and estimated whether an established UNAIDS HIV epidemic control target could be met under ideal implementation of optimal combination strategies previously defined for each city. Four of six cities (Atlanta, Baltimore, New York City and Seattle) were projected to achieve epidemic control by 2040 and we identified differences in reaching epidemic control across racial/ethnic groups.

"Ending the Epidemic" Will Not Happen Without Addressing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in the United States Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic.

We estimated human immunodeficiency virus incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for black and Hispanic vs white populations in 6 cities in the United States (2020-2030). Large reductions in incidence are possible, but without elimination of disparities in healthcare access, we found that wide disparities persisted for black compared with white populations in particular (lowest IRR, 1.69 [95% credible interval, 1.19-2.30]).

State Policies for Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs and Adverse Opioid-related Hospital Events.

BACKGROUND: State policies to optimize prescriber use of Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) have proliferated in recent years. Prominent policies include comprehensive mandates for prescriber use of PDMP, laws allowing delegation of PDMP access to office staff, and interstate PDMP data sharing. Evidence is limited regarding the effects of these policies on adverse opioid-related hospital events. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the effects of 3 PDMP policies on adverse opioid-related hospital events among patients with prescription opioid use. RESEARCH DESIGN: We examined 2011-2015 data from a large national commercial insurance database of privately insured and Medicare Advantage patients from 28 states with fully operating PDMPs by the end of 2010. We used a difference-in-differences framework to assess the probabilities of opioid-related hospital events and association with the implementation of PDMP policies. The analysis was conducted for adult patients with any prescription opioid use, a subsample of patients with long-term prescription opioid use, and stratified by older (65+) versus younger patients. RESULTS: Comprehensive use mandates were associated with a relative reduction in the probability of opioid-related hospital events by 28% among patients with any opioid and 21% among patients with long-term opioid use. Such reduction was greater (in relative terms) among older patients despite the lower rate of these events among older than younger patients. Delegate laws and interstate data sharing were associated with limited change in the outcome. CONCLUSION: Comprehensive PDMP use mandates were associated with meaningful reductions in opioid-related hospital events among privately insured and Medicare Advantage adults with prescription opioid use.

Bundling Rapid Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Testing to Increase Receipt of Test Results: A Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: The overlapping human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemics disproportionately affect people with substance use disorders. However, many people who use substances remain unaware of their infection(s). OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the efficacy of an on-site bundled rapid HIV and HCV testing strategy in increasing receipt of both HIV and HCV test results. RESEARCH DESIGN: Two-armed randomized controlled trial in substance use disorder treatment programs (SUDTP) in New York City. Participants in the treatment arm were offered bundled rapid HIV and HCV tests with immediate results on-site. Participants in the control arm were offered the standard of care, that is, referrals to on-site or off-site laboratory-based HIV and HCV testing with delayed results. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 162 clients with unknown or negative HIV and HCV status. MEASURES: The primary outcome was the percentage of participants with self-reported receipt of HIV and HCV test results at 1-month postrandomization. RESULTS: Over half of participants were Hispanic (51.2%), with 25.3% being non-Hispanic black and 17.9% non-Hispanic white. Two thirds were male, and 54.9% reported injection as method of drug use. One hundred thirty-four participants (82.7%) completed the 1-month assessment. Participants in the treatment arm were more likely to report having received both test results than those in the control arm (69% vs. 19%, P<0.001). Seven participants in the treatment arm received a preliminary new HCV diagnosis, versus 1 in the control arm (P=0.029). CONCLUSION: Offering bundled rapid HIV and HCV testing with immediate results on-site in SUDTPs may increase awareness of HIV and HCV infection among people with substance use disorders.

Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities.

We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], -1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, -2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

Developing a dynamic HIV transmission model for 6 U.S. cities: An evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic HIV transmission models can provide evidence-based guidance on optimal combination implementation strategies to treat and prevent HIV/AIDS. However, these models can be extremely data intensive, and the availability of good-quality data characterizing regional microepidemics varies substantially within and across countries. We aim to provide a comprehensive and transparent description of an evidence synthesis process and reporting framework employed to populate and calibrate a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model for six US cities. METHODS: We executed a mixed-method evidence synthesis strategy to populate model parameters in six categories: (i) initial HIV-negative and HIV-infected populations; (ii) parameters used to calculate the probability of HIV transmission; (iii) screening, diagnosis, treatment and HIV disease progression; (iv) HIV prevention programs; (v) the costs of medical care; and (vi) health utility weights for each stage of HIV disease progression. We identified parameters that required city-specific data and stratification by gender, risk group and race/ethnicity a priori and sought out databases for primary analysis to augment our evidence synthesis. We ranked the quality of each parameter using context- and domain-specific criteria and verified sources and assumptions with our scientific advisory committee. FINDINGS: To inform the 1,667 parameters needed to populate our model, we synthesized evidence from 59 peer-reviewed publications and 24 public health and surveillance reports and executed primary analyses using 11 data sets. Of these 1,667 parameters, 1,517 (91%) were city-specific and 150 (9%) were common for all cities. Notably, 1,074 (64%), 201 (12%) and 312 (19%) parameters corresponded to categories (i), (ii) and (iii), respectively. Parameters ranked as best- to moderate-quality evidence comprised 39% of the common parameters and ranged from 56%-60% across cities for the city-specific parameters. We identified variation in parameter values across cities as well as within cities across risk and race/ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Better integration of modelling in decision making can be achieved by systematically reporting on the evidence synthesis process that is used to populate models, and by explicitly assessing the quality of data entered into the model. The effective communication of this process can help prioritize data collection of the most informative components of local HIV prevention and care services in order to reduce decision uncertainty and strengthen model conclusions.

Why Maximizing Quality-Adjusted Life Years, rather than Reducing HIV Incidence, Must Remain Our Objective in Addressing the HIV/AIDS Epidemic.

With efficacious behavioral, biomedical, and structural interventions available, combination implementation strategies are being implemented to combat HIV/AIDS across settings internationally. However, priority statements from national and international bodies make it unclear whether the objective should be the reduction in HIV incidence or the maximization of health, most commonly measured with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Building off a model-based evaluation of HIV care interventions in British Columbia, Canada, we compare the optimal sets of interventions that would be identified using HIV infections averted, and QALYs as the primary outcome in a cost-effectiveness analysis. We found an explicit focus on averting new infections undervalues the health benefits derived from antiretroviral therapy, resulting in suboptimal and potentially harmful funding recommendations.

Cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C screening and treatment linkage intervention in US methadone maintenance treatment programs.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a hepatitis C (HCV) screening and active linkage to care intervention in US methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) patients using data from a randomized trial conducted in New York City and San Francisco. METHODS: We used a decision analytic model to compare 1) no intervention; 2) HCV screening and education (control); and 3) HCV screening, education, and care coordination (active linkage intervention). We also explored an alternative strategy wherein HCV/HIV co-infected participants linked elsewhere. Trial data include population characteristics (67% male, mean age 48, 58% HCV infected) and linkage rates. Data from published sources include treatment efficacy and HCV re-infection risk. We projected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime medical costs using an established model of HCV (HEP-CE). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) are in 2015 US$/QALY discounted 3% annually. RESULTS: The control strategy resulted in a projected 35% linking to care within 6 months and 31% achieving sustained virologic response (SVR). The intervention resulted in 60% linking and 54% achieving SVR with an ICER of $24,600/QALY compared to no intervention from the healthcare sector perspective and was a more efficient use of resources than the control strategy. The intervention had an ICER of $76,500/QALY compared to the alternative strategy. From a societal perspective, the intervention had a net monetary benefit of $511,000-$975,600. CONCLUSIONS: HCV care coordination interventions that include screening, education and active linkage to care in MMT settings are likely cost-effective at a conventional $100,000/QALY threshold for both HCV mono-infected and HIV co-infected patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of One-Time Hepatitis C Screening Strategies Among Adolescents and Young Adults in Primary Care Settings.

Background: High hepatitis C virus (HCV) rates have been reported in young people who inject drugs (PWID). We evaluated the clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of testing among youth seen in communities with a high overall number of reported HCV cases. Methods: We developed a decision analytic model to project quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs (2016 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of 9 strategies for 1-time testing among 15- to 30-year-olds seen at urban community health centers. Strategies differed in 3 ways: targeted vs routine testing, rapid finger stick vs standard venipuncture, and ordered by physician vs by counselor/tester using standing orders. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) to evaluate uncertainty. Results: Compared to targeted risk-based testing (current standard of care), routine testing increased the lifetime medical cost by $80 and discounted QALYs by 0.0013 per person. Across all strategies, rapid testing provided higher QALYs at a lower cost per QALY gained and was always preferred. Counselor-initiated routine rapid testing was associated with an ICER of $71000/QALY gained. Results were sensitive to offer and result receipt rates. Counselor-initiated routine rapid testing was cost-effective (ICER <$100000/QALY) unless the prevalence of PWID was <0.59%, HCV prevalence among PWID was <16%, reinfection rate was >26 cases per 100 person-years, or reflex confirmatory testing followed all reactive venipuncture diagnostics. In PSA, routine rapid testing was the optimal strategy in 90% of simulations. Conclusions: Routine rapid HCV testing among 15- to 30-year-olds may be cost-effective when the prevalence of PWID is >0.59%.

On-site bundled rapid HIV/HCV testing in substance use disorder treatment programs: study protocol for a hybrid design randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: More than 1.2 million people in the United States are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and 3.2 million are living with hepatitis C virus (HCV). An estimated 25 % of persons living with HIV also have HCV. It is therefore of great public health importance to ensure the prompt diagnosis of both HIV and HCV in populations that have the highest prevalence of both infections, including individuals with substance use disorders (SUD). METHODS/DESIGN: In this theory-driven, efficacy-effectiveness-implementation hybrid study, we will develop and test an on-site bundled rapid HIV/HCV testing intervention for SUD treatment programs. Its aim is to increase the receipt of HIV and HCV test results among SUD treatment patients. Using a rigorous process involving patients, providers, and program managers, we will incorporate rapid HCV testing into evidence-based HIV testing and linkage to care interventions. We will then test, in a randomized controlled trial, the extent to which this bundled rapid HIV/HCV testing approach increases receipt of HIV and HCV test results. Lastly, we will conduct formative research to understand the barriers to, and facilitators of, the adoption, implementation, and sustainability of the bundled rapid testing strategy in SUD treatment programs. DISCUSSION: Novel approaches that effectively integrate on-site rapid HIV and rapid HCV testing are needed to address both the HIV and HCV epidemics. If feasible and efficacious, bundled rapid HIV/HCV testing may offer a scalable, potentially cost-effective approach to testing high-risk populations, such as patients of SUD treatment programs. It may ultimately lead to improved linkage to care and progress through the HIV and HCV care and treatment cascades. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02355080 . (30 January 2015).

Prioritizing HIV comparative effectiveness trials based on value of information: generic versus brand-name ART in the US.

BACKGROUND: Value of Information (VOI) analysis examines whether to acquire information before making a decision. We introduced VOI to the HIV audience, using the example of generic antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a mathematical model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to generate probability distributions of survival (in quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) and cost for three potential first-line ART regimens: three-pill generic, two-pill generic, and single-pill branded. These served as input for a comparison of two hypothetical two-arm trials: three-pill generic versus single-pill branded; and two-pill generic versus single-pill branded. We modeled pre-trial uncertainty by defining probability distributions around key inputs, including 24-week HIV-RNA suppression and subsequent ART failure. We assumed that, without a trial, patients received the single-pill branded strategy. Post-trial, we assumed that patients received the most cost-effective strategy. For both trials, we quantified the probability of changing to a generic-based regimen upon trial completion and the expected VOI in terms of improved health outcomes and costs. Assuming a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $100 000/QALY, the three-pill trial led to more treatment changes (84%) than the two-pill trial (78%). Estimated VOI was $48 000 (three-pill trial) and $35 700 (two-pill trial) per future patient initiating ART. CONCLUSIONS: A three-pill trial of generic ART is more likely to lead to post-trial treatment changes and to provide more value than a two-pill trial if policy decisions are based on cost-effectiveness. Value of Information analysis can identify trials likely to confer the greatest impact and value for HIV care.

The cost of implementing rapid HIV testing in sexually transmitted disease clinics in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Rapid HIV testing in high-risk populations can increase the number of persons who learn their HIV status and avoid spending clinic resources to locate persons identified as HIV infected. METHODS: We determined the cost to sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics of point-of-care rapid HIV testing using data from 7 public clinics that participated in a randomized trial of rapid testing with and without brief patient-centered risk reduction counseling in 2010. Costs included counselor and trainer time, supplies, and clinic overhead. We applied national labor rates and test costs. We calculated median clinic start-up costs and mean cost per patient tested, and projected incremental annual costs of implementing universal rapid HIV testing compared with current testing practices. RESULTS: Criteria for offering rapid HIV testing and methods for delivering nonrapid test results varied among clinics before the trial. Rapid HIV testing cost an average of US $22/patient without brief risk reduction counseling and US $46/patient with counseling in these 7 clinics. Median start-up costs per clinic were US $1100 and US $16,100 without and with counseling, respectively. Estimated incremental annual costs per clinic of implementing universal rapid HIV testing varied by whether or not brief counseling is conducted and by current clinic testing practices, ranging from a savings of US $19,500 to a cost of US $40,700 without counseling and a cost of US $98,000 to US $153,900 with counseling. CONCLUSIONS: Universal rapid HIV testing in STD clinics with same-day results can be implemented at relatively low cost to STD clinics, if brief risk reduction counseling is not offered.

A call for evidence-based medical treatment of opioid dependence in the United States and Canada.

Despite decades of experience treating heroin or prescription opioid dependence with methadone or buprenorphine--two forms of opioid substitution therapy--gaps remain between current practices and evidence-based standards in both Canada and the United States. This is largely because of regulatory constraints and pervasive suboptimal clinical practices. Fewer than 10 percent of all people dependent on opioids in the United States are receiving substitution treatment, although the proportion may increase with expanded health insurance coverage as a result of the Affordable Care Act. In light of the accumulated evidence, we recommend eliminating restrictions on office-based methadone prescribing in the United States; reducing financial barriers to treatment, such as varying levels of copayment in Canada and the United States; reducing reliance on less effective and potentially unsafe opioid detoxification; and evaluating and creating mechanisms to integrate emerging treatments. Taking these steps can greatly reduce the harms of opioid dependence by maximizing the individual and public health benefits of treatment.

The cost-effectiveness of rapid HIV testing in substance abuse treatment: results of a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The President's National HIV/AIDS Strategy calls for coupling HIV screening and prevention services with substance abuse treatment programs. Fewer than half of US community-based substance abuse treatment programs make HIV testing available on-site or through referral. METHODS: We measured the cost-effectiveness of three HIV testing strategies evaluated in a randomized trial conducted in 12 community-based substance abuse treatment programs in 2009: off-site testing referral, on-site rapid testing with information only, on-site rapid testing with risk-reduction counseling. Data from the trial included patient demographics, prior testing history, test acceptance and receipt of results, undiagnosed HIV prevalence (0.4%) and program costs. The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) computer simulation model was used to project life expectancy, lifetime costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for HIV-infected individuals. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (2009 US $/QALY) were calculated after adding costs of testing HIV-uninfected individuals; costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually. RESULTS: Referral for off-site testing is less efficient (dominated) compared to offering on-site testing with information only. The cost-effectiveness ratio for on-site testing with information is $60,300/QALY in the base case, or $76,300/QALY with 0.1% undiagnosed HIV prevalence. HIV risk-reduction counseling costs $36 per person more without additional benefit. CONCLUSIONS: A strategy of on-site rapid HIV testing offer with information only in substance abuse treatment programs increases life expectancy at a cost-effectiveness ratio <$100,000/QALY. Policymakers and substance abuse treatment leaders should seek funding to implement on-site rapid HIV testing in substance abuse treatment programs for those not recently tested.

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV: a review.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved the use of tenofovir-emtricitabine for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. PrEP is also being investigated in clinical trials as a component of HIV prevention in resource-limited settings. Cost-effectiveness models are useful in identifying health programs with the greatest societal value and projecting long-term program impacts. This review examines six recent studies of the cost-effectiveness of PrEP for preventing HIV transmission in the USA and South Africa. RECENT FINDINGS: Studies used both individual-level and population-level transmission models. PrEP was found to be a cost-effective HIV-prevention intervention in high-risk MSM with HIV incidence at least 2% in the USA (