Genomics and epidemiology of the P 1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil

Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020 despite previously high levels of infection. Genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021 revealed the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern. Lineage P.1 acquired 17 mutations, including a trio in the spike protein (K417T, E484K, and N501Y) associated with increased binding to the human ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) receptor. Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around mid-November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, we estimate that P.1 may be 1.7- to 2.4-fold more transmissible and that previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54 to 79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages. Enhanced global genomic surveillance of variants of concern, which may exhibit increased transmissibility and/or immune evasion, is critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness.

Comparison of Statistical Tests and Power Analysis for Phosphoproteomics Data.

Advances in protein tagging and mass spectrometry have enabled generation of large quantitative proteome and phosphoproteome data sets, for identifying differentially expressed targets in case-control studies. The power study of statistical tests is critical for designing strategies for effective target identification and control of experimental cost. Here, we develop a simulation framework to generate realistic phospho-peptide data with known changes between cases and controls. Using this framework, we quantify the performance of traditional t-tests, Bayesian tests, and the ranking-by-fold-change test. Bayesian tests, which share variance information among peptides, outperform the traditional t-tests. Although ranking-by-fold-change has similar power as the Bayesian tests, its type I error rate cannot be properly controlled without proper permutation analysis; therefore, simply relying on the ranking likely brings false positives. Two-sample Bayesian tests considering dependencies between intensity and variance are superior for data sets with complex variance. While increasing the sample size enhances the statistical tests' performance, balanced controls and cases are recommended over a one-side weighted group. Further, higher peptide standard deviations require higher fold changes to achieve the same statistical power. Together, these results highlight the importance of model-informed experimental design and principled statistical analyses when working with large-scale proteomics and phosphoproteomics data.