Laparoscopic cholecystectomy critical view of safety (LC-CVS): a multi-national validation study of an objective, procedure-specific assessment using video-based assessment (VBA).

BACKGROUND: A novel 6-item objective, procedure-specific assessment for laparoscopic cholecystectomy incorporating the critical view of safety (LC-CVS OPSA) was developed to support trainee formative and summative assessments. The LC-CVS OPSA included two retraction items (fundus and infundibulum retraction) and four CVS items (hepatocystic triangle visualization, gallbladder-liver separation, cystic artery identification, and cystic duct identification). The scoring rubric for retraction consisted of poor (frequently outside of defined range), adequate (minimally outside of defined range) and excellent (consistently inside defined range) and for CVS items were "poor-unsafe", "adequate-safe", or "excellent-safe". METHODS: A multi-national consortium of 12 expert LC surgeons applied the OPSA-LC CVS to 35 unique LC videos and one duplicate video. Primary outcome measure was inter-rater reliability as measured by Gwet's AC2, a weighted measure that adjusts for scales with high probability of random agreement. Analysis of the inter-rater reliability was conducted on a collapsed dichotomous scoring rubric of "poor-unsafe" vs. "adequate/excellent-safe". RESULTS: Inter-rater reliability was high for all six items ranging from 0.76 (hepatocystic triangle visualization) to 0.86 (cystic duct identification). Intra-rater reliability for the single duplicate video was substantially higher across the six items ranging from 0.91 to 1.00. CONCLUSIONS: The novel 6-item OPSA LC CVS demonstrated high inter-rater reliability when tested with a multi-national consortium of LC expert surgeons. This brief instrument focused on safe surgical practice was designed to support the implementation of entrustable professional activities into busy surgical training programs. Instrument use coupled with video-based assessments creates novel datasets with the potential for artificial intelligence development including computer vision to drive assessment automation.

A multi-national, video-based qualitative study to refine training guidelines for assigning an "unsafe" score in laparoscopic cholecystectomy critical view of safety.

BACKGROUND: The critical view of safety (CVS) was incorporated into a novel 6-item objective procedure-specific assessment for laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC-CVS OPSA) to enhance focus on safe completion of surgical tasks and advance the American Board of Surgery's entrustable professional activities (EPAs) initiative. To enhance instrument development, a feasibility study was performed to elucidate expert surgeon perspectives regarding "safe" vs. "unsafe" practice. METHODS: A multi-national consortium of 11 expert LC surgeons were asked to apply the LC-CVS OPSA to ten LC videos of varying surgical difficulty using a "safe" vs. "unsafe" scale. Raters were asked to provide written rationale for all "unsafe" ratings and invited to provide additional feedback regarding instrument clarity. A qualitative analysis was performed on written responses to extract major themes. RESULTS: Of the 660 ratings, 238 were scored as "unsafe" with substantial variation in distribution across tasks and raters. Analysis of the comments revealed three major categories of "unsafe" ratings: (a) inability to achieve the critical view of safety (intended outcome), (b) safe task completion but less than optimal surgical technique, and (c) safe task completion but risk for potential future complication. Analysis of reviewer comments also identified the potential for safe surgical practice even when CVS was not achieved, either due to unusual anatomy or severe pathology preventing safe visualization. Based upon findings, modifications to the instructions to raters for the LC-CVS OPSA were incorporated to enhance instrument reliability. CONCLUSIONS: A safety-based LC-CVS OPSA has the potential to significantly improve surgical training by incorporating CVS formally into learner assessment. This study documents the perspectives of expert biliary tract surgeons regarding clear identification and documentation of unsafe surgical practice for LC-CVS and enables the development of training materials to improve instrument reliability. Learnings from the study have been incorporated into rater instructions to enhance instrument reliability.

Transplanting a left or right donor kidney into the left or right iliac fossa: importance of laterality and site of venous anastomosis.

Data on the impact of donor-to-recipient laterality on kidney transplantation are lacking. This study evaluated the impact of donor-to-iliac fossa laterality and the site of venous anastomosis on operating time and surgical outcome. This retrospective single-center study analyzed 1262 deceased donor adult kidney transplants into pristine iliac fossa. Multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses were used to identify variables with an impact on operating time and surgical complications. Operating time was shorter by 11 min in median for transplantations into the right iliac fossa compared to the left iliac fossa (p < 0.001). Operating time in left-to-right donor-to-recipient combination was shorter by 17 min in median if venous anastomoses were performed on the caval vein or common iliac vein as compared to anastomoses to the external iliac vein (p < 0.001). Overall, the shortest operating times (median 112.5 min) were achieved in left-to-right donor-to-recipient combinations with venous anastomosis to the caval or common iliac vein, without an increase in surgical complications. Kidney transplantation into the right iliac fossa with anastomosis to the caval vein or the common iliac vein saves operating time and reduces thrombotic complications. Acceptance of a left donor kidney is likely to further reduce operating time.

Preoperative hemoglobin levels, extended resections and the body mass index influence survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

PURPOSE: The negative influence of perioperative transfusion of packed red blood cells on the prognosis of various malignancies is the focus of recent research interest. The development of a propensity score for the prediction of perioperative transfusion of packed red blood cells (pRBCs) and the identification of independent risk factors for survival, that can either be known prior to or during surgery in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic head cancer are the two objectives of this study. METHODS: Logistic regression analyses and Cox regression modeling were used to identify independent risk factors for perioperative transfusion of pRBCs and to determine individual risk factors for patient survival. A total of 101 adult patients who underwent surgery between 01/01/2016 and 12/31/2020 were investigated in a single-center retrospective analysis. RESULTS: Preoperative hemoglobin levels (OR: 0.472, 95%-CI: 0.312-0.663, p < 0.001) and extended resections (OR: 4.720, 95%-CI: 1.819-13.296, p = 0.001) were identified as independent risk factors for perioperative transfusion of pRBCs, enabling the prediction of pRBC transfusion with high sensitivity and specificity (AUROC: 0.790). The logit of the derived propensity model for the transfusion of pRBCs (HR: 9.231, 95%CI: 3.083-28.118, p < 0.001) and preoperative Body Mass Index (BMI) (HR, 0.925; 95%-CI: 0.870-0.981, p = 0.008) were independent risk factors for survival. CONCLUSIONS: Low preoperative hemoglobin levels, low BMI values, and extended resections are significant risk factors for survival that can be known and thus potentially be influenced prior to or during surgery. Patient blood management programs and prehabilitation programs should strive to increase preoperative hemoglobin levels and improve preoperative malnutrition.

Proposal of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Graded Morbidity after Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastases.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models to predict individual early postoperative morbidity after liver resection for colorectal liver metastases (CLM) are not available but could enable optimized preoperative patient selection and postoperative surveillance for patients at greater risk of complications. The aim of this study was to establish a prognostic model for the prediction of morbidity after liver resection graded according to Dindo. METHODS: N = 679 cases of primary liver resection for CLM were retrospectively analyzed using univariable and multivariable ordinal regression analyses. Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis was utilised to assess the sensitivity and specificity of predictions and their potential usefulness as prognostic models. Internal validation of the score was performed using data derived from 129 patients. RESULTS: The final multivariable regression model revealed lower preoperative levels, a greater number of units of intraoperatively transfused packed red blood cells (pRBCs), longer duration of surgery, and larger metastases to independently influence postoperatively graded morbidity. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that the multivariable regression model is able to predict each individual grade of postoperative morbidity with high sensitivity and specificity. The areas under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) for all of these predictions of individual grades of morbidity were > 0.700, indicating potential usefulness as a predictive model. Moreover, a consistent concordance in Grades I, II, IV, and V according to the classification proposed by Dindo et al. was observed in the internal validation. CONCLUSION: This study proposes a prognostic model for the prediction of each grade of postoperative morbidity after liver resection for CLM with high sensitivity and specificity using pre- and intraoperatively available variables.

Chemotherapy and Hepatic Steatosis: Impact on Postoperative Morbidity and Survival after Liver Resection for Colorectal Liver Metastases.

BACKGROUND: Hepatic steatosis and chemotherapy in the treatment of colorectal liver metastases (CLM) are often linked to increased mortality and morbidity after liver resection. This study evaluates the influence of macrovesicular hepatic steatosis and chemotherapeutic regimes on graded morbidity and mortality after liver resection for CLM. METHODS: A total of 323 cases of liver resection for CLM were retrospectively analysed using univariable and multivariable linear, ordinal and Cox regression analyses. The resected liver tissue was re-evaluated by a single observer to determine the grade and type of hepatic steatosis. RESULTS: Macrovesicular steatosis did not influence postoperative morbidity and survival, as evidenced by risk-adjusted multivariable Cox regression analysis (p = 0.521). Conversion chemotherapy containing oxaliplatin was an independent and significant risk factor for mortality in risk-adjusted multivariable Cox regression analysis (p = 0.005). Identified independently, significant risk factors for postoperative morbidity were neoadjuvant treatment of metastases of the primary tumour with irinotecan (p = 0.003), the duration of surgery in minutes (p = 0.001) and the number of intraoperatively transfused packed red blood cells (p ≤ 0.001). Surprisingly, macrovesicular hepatic steatosis was not a risk factor for postoperative morbidity and was even associated with lower rates of complications (p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: The results emphasize the multifactorial influence of preoperative liver damage and chemotherapy on the severity of postoperative morbidity, as well as the significant impact of conversion chemotherapy containing oxaliplatin on survival.

Impact of immunosuppressive therapy on brain derived cytokines after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: While acute neurotoxic side effects of calcineurin inhibitors (CNI) are well-known, data upon long-term effects on brain structure and function are sparse. We hypothesize that long-term CNI therapy affects the neuroimmune system, thereby, increasing the risk of neurodegeneration. Here, we measured the impact of CNI therapy on plasma levels of brain- and T cell-derived cytokines in a cohort of patients after liver transplantation (LT). METHODS: Levels of T cell-mediated cytokines (e.g. Interferon-γ (IFN-γ)) and brain-derived cytokines (e.g. brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), platelet derived growth factor (PDGF)) were measured by multiplex assays in plasma of 82 patients about 10 years after LT (17 with CNI free, 35 with CNI low dose, 30 with standard dose CNI immunosuppression) and 33 healthy controls. Data were related to psychometric test results and parameters of cerebral magnetic resonance imaging. RESULTS: IFN-γ levels were significantly higher in the CNI free LT patient group (p=0.027) compared to healthy controls. BDNF levels were significantly lower in LT patients treated with CNI (CNI low: p<0.001; CNI standard: p=0.016) compared to controls. PDGF levels were significantly lower in the CNI low dose group (p=0.004) and for PDGF-AB/BB also in the CNI standard dose group (p=0.029) compared to controls. BDNF and PDGF negatively correlated with cognitive function and brain volume (p<0.05) in the CNI low dose group. CONCLUSION: Our results imply that long-term treatment with CNI suppresses BDNF and PDGF expression, both crucial for neuronal signaling, cell survival and synaptic plasticity and thereby may lead to cognitive dysfunction and neurodegeneration.

Prediction of survival after left-sided pancreatic resection for adenocarcinoma: Introduction of a new prognostic score.

BACKGROUND: Due to the clinically unapparent course the entity of left-sided pancreatic adenocarcinoma is often diagnosed at advanced stages, resulting in small numbers of patients qualifying for pancreatectomy. This study strives to develop a prognostic model for survival after left-sided pancreatic resection. METHODS: A total of 54 patients were analyzed. Pre- and intra-operative predictive factors for 18-month mortality were identified with multivariable binary logistic regression analysis and compiled into a prognostic model. The applicability was evaluated by assessment of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The model was internally validated applying a randomized backwards bootstrapping analysis. RESULTS: The 18-month mortality rate was 74.1% (n = 40). Mean survival was 19.1 months. A prognostic model for 18-month mortality after left sided-pancreatectomy showed an AUROC >0.800: 18-month mortality risk in% = Exp(Y) / (1 + Exp(Y)) with y= -0.927 + (1.724, if CA 19-9 elevated, otherwise 0) + (1.212 × number of intra-operative transfused packed red blood cells) + (2.771, if prior abdominal surgery, otherwise 0) - (3.612, if gastric resection, otherwise 0) This model was internally validated in 40 randomized backwards bootstrapping steps with AUROCs ranging from 0.757 to 0.971. CONCLUSIONS: The 18-month mortality risk for patients after left-sided pancreatectomy for adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic body can be assessed with the number of intra-operatively transfused packed red blood cells, elevated CA 19-9 levels, additional gastric resection and prior abdominal surgeries in the patient's history.

Ventilation after pancreaticoduodenectomy increases perioperative mortality: Identification of risk factors and their relevance in Germany that do not apply in England.

BACKGROUND: Pre-operative risk factors for post-operative ventilation and their influence on survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy for malignancy are unknown. METHODS: Totally 391 patients operated in Hannover, Germany were investigated with multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression modeling to identify independent risk factors for post-operative ventilation ≥6 h, patient survival and 90-day mortality. And 84 patients operated in Birmingham, United Kingdom were analyzed to assess the external relevance of findings. RESULTS: Longer operations, history of thrombosis, intra-operative blood transfusion, lower estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) and higher values of the age at operation divided by the Horovitz Quotient independently increased the risk of post-operative ventilation ≥ 6 h in German patients (n = 108; 27.6%) (P<0.050). Blood transfusion and lower pre-operative eGFR levels increased the risk of early death in German patients significantly and independently of established prognostic factors. A history of thrombosis and lower eGFR levels were also independent significant risk factors for 90-day mortality in German patients but not in English patients. None of the English patients received post-operative ventilation. Significantly more German patients were >75 years, had a history of thrombosis, received blood transfusions, and had significantly worse lung function parameters. pT4 tumors were detected in 18 German patients (4.6%), but not in the English patients. CONCLUSIONS: Identified risk factors for post-operative ventilation are clinically relevant in Germany but not in England and may be used to lower mortality risk. The German and the English cohorts displayed significant differences in the approach to patient selection and early post-operative extubation.

Brain metabolic alterations in patients with long-term calcineurin inhibitor therapy after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) neurotoxicity after liver transplantation might be due to impairment of the cerebral metabolism. AIMS: To investigate CNI-related alterations of brain metabolite distributions and associations between cognitive function and brain metabolism in patients with long-term CNI treatment after liver transplantation. METHODS: Eighty-two patients (19 CNI free, 34 CNI low-dose and 29 standard-dose CNI immunosuppression) 10 years after liver transplantation and 32 adjusted healthy controls underwent nonlocalised brain phosphorus magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) and single voxel proton MRS in the parietal white matter to estimate brain metabolite contents. The MRS results were correlated with psychometric data assessing cognitive function. RESULTS: Phosphorus metabolite concentrations with the exception of phosphocreatine (PCr) were reduced in patients compared to controls. Particularly, patients with low-dose CNI therapy showed a significant decrease in adenosine triphosphate (0.209 ± 0.012 vs 0.222 ± 0.010; P < 0.001) and a significant increase in PCr (0.344 ± 0.026 vs 0.321 ± 0.017; P < 0.001) compared to controls. Myo-Inositol in the CNI free group (2.719 ± 0.549 institutional unit [iu]) was significantly lower compared to controls (3.181 ± 0.425 iu; P = 0.02), patients on low-dose (3.130 ± 0.513 iu; P < 0.05) and standard-dose CNI therapy (3.207 ± 0.632 iu; P < 0.02). Glutamate and glutamine levels correlated negatively with cognitive function (Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status Total Scale: R = -0.362, P = 0.029). CONCLUSION: Long-term CNI therapy after liver transplantation might be associated with alterations of brain metabolites.

Potential savings in the treatment pathway of liver transplantation: an inter-sectorial analysis of cost-rising factors.

INTRODUCTION: Identification of cost-driving factors in patients undergoing liver transplantation is essential to target reallocation of resources and potential savings. AIM: The aim of this study is to identify main cost-driving factors in liver transplantation from the perspective of the Statutory Health Insurance. METHODS: Variables were analyzed with multivariable logistic regression to determine their influence on high cost cases (fourth quartile) in the outpatient, inpatient and rehabilitative healthcare sectors as well as for medications. RESULTS: Significant cost-driving factors for the inpatient sector of care were a high labMELD-score (OR 1.042), subsequent re-transplantations (OR 7.159) and patient mortality (OR 3.555). Expenditures for rehabilitative care were significantly higher in patients with a lower adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (OR 0.601). The indication of viral cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma resulted in significantly higher costs for medications (OR 21.618 and 7.429). For all sectors of care and medications each waiting day had a significant impact on high treatment costs (OR 1.001). Overall, cost-driving factors resulted in higher median treatment costs of 211,435 €. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment costs in liver transplantation were significantly influenced by identified factors. Long pre-transplant waiting times that increase overall treatment costs need to be alleviated by a substantial increase in donor organs to enable transplantation with lower labMELD-scores. Disease management programs, the implementation of a case management for vulnerable patients, medication plans and patient tracking in a transplant registry may enable cost savings, e.g., by the avoidance of otherwise necessary re-transplants or incorrect medication.

Proposal of Two Prognostic Models for the Prediction of 10-Year Survival after Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastases.

BACKGROUND: One-third of 5-year survivors after liver resection for colorectal liver metastases (CLM) develop recurrence or tumor-related death. Therefore 10-year survival appears more adequate in defining permanent cure. The aim of this study was to develop prognostic models for the prediction of 10-year survival after liver resection for colorectal liver metastases. METHODS: N=965 cases of liver resection for CLM were retrospectively analyzed using univariable and multivariable regression analyses. Receiver operating curve analyses were used to assess the sensitivity and specificity of developed prognostic models and their potential clinical usefulness. RESULTS: The 10-year survival rate was 15.2%. Age at liver resection, application of chemotherapies of the primary tumor, preoperative Quick's value, hemoglobin level, and grading of the primary colorectal tumor were independent significant predictors for 10-year patient survival. The generated formula to predict 10-year survival based on these preoperative factors displayed an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.716. In regard to perioperative variables, the distance of resection margins and performance of right segmental liver resection were additional independent predictors for 10-year survival. The logit link formula generated with pre- and perioperative variables showed an AUROC of 0.761. CONCLUSION: Both prognostic models are potentially clinically useful (AUROCs >0.700) for the prediction of 10-year survival. External validation is required prior to the introduction of these models in clinical patient counselling.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for kidney function 1 year after combined pancreas and kidney transplantation using pre-transplant donor and recipient variables.

PURPOSE: The widening gap between demand and supply of organs for transplantation provides extraordinary challenges for ethical donor organ allocation rules. The transplant community is forced to define favorable recipient/donor combinations for simultaneous kidney-pancreas transplantation. The aim of this study is the development of a prognostic model for the prediction of kidney function 1 year after simultaneous pancreas and kidney transplantation using pre-transplant donor and recipient variables with subsequent internal and external validation. METHODS: Included were patients with end-stage renal failure due to diabetic nephropathy. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was applied for prognostic model design with retrospective data from Hannover Medical School, Germany (01.01.2000-31.12.2011) followed by prospective internal validation (01 Jan. 2012-31 Dec. 2015). Retrospective data from another German transplant center in Kiel was retrieved for external model validation via the initially derived logit link function. RESULTS: The developed prognostic model is able to predict kidney graft function 1 year after transplantation ≥ KDIGO stage III with high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the development cohort (0.943) as well as the internal (0.807) and external validation cohorts (0.784). CONCLUSION: The proposed validated model is a valuable tool to optimize present allocation rules with the goal to prevent transplant futility. It might be used to support donor organ acceptance decisions for individual recipients.

Hangzhou criteria are more accurate than Milan criteria in predicting long-term survival after liver transplantation for HCC in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Milan criteria are used for patient selection in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hangzhou criteria have been shown in China to enable access to liver transplantation for more patients when compared to Milan criteria without negative effects on long-term survival. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Hangzhou criteria in a German cohort. METHODS: One hundred fifty-nine patients transplanted for HCC between 1975 and 2010 were investigated. Patients were categorized into four groups depending on the fulfillment of Milan and Hangzhou criteria. General and tumor baseline characteristics were compared. Overall and tumor-free survival rates were investigated with the Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: One-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates for patients fulfilling Milan criteria (n = 68) were 89.7, 83.7, 75.8, and 62.1%, respectively, versus 89.8, 82.2, 75.2, and 62.6% for patients fulfilling Hangzhou criteria (n = 109) (p = 0.833). When comparing patients exceeding Milan or Hangzhou criteria, survival rates were 75.3, 53.2, 48.1, and 41.1% versus 63.3, 31.4, 26.9, and 22.1%, respectively (p = 0.019). The comparison of tumor-free survival rates in patients fulfilling Milan or Hangzhou criteria was statistically not significant (p = 0.785), whereas the comparison of the groups exceeding the criteria showed significantly worse survival for patients outside Hangzhou criteria (p = 0.007). The proportion of patients fulfilling Hangzhou criteria (68.6%) was significantly larger as compared to the proportion fulfilling Milan criteria (42.8%) (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Hangzhou criteria are more accurate in predicting long-term survival after liver transplantation for HCC in Germany. Deployment of the Hangzhou criteria for patient selection could enlarge the pool of transplantable patients.

Relevant prognostic factors influencing outcome of patients after surgical resection of distal cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Distal cholangiocarcinoma (DCC) is a rare but over the last decade increasing malignancy and is associated with poor prognosis. According to the present knowledge curative surgery is the only chance for long term survival. This study was performed to evaluate prognostic factors for the outcome of patients undergoing curative surgery for distal cholangiocarcinoma. METHODS: 75 patients who underwent surgery between January 2000 and December 2014 for DCC in curative intention were analysed retrospectively. Potential prognostic factors for survival were investigated including the extent of surgery using purposeful selection of covariates in multivariable Cox regression modeling. RESULTS: Preoperative biliary stenting (Hazard ratio (HR): 2.530; 95%-CI: 1.146-6.464, p = 0.020), the extent of surgery in case of positive histological venous invasion (HR: 1.209; 95%-CI: 1.017-1.410, p = 0.032), lymph node staging (HR: 2.183; 95%-CI: 1.250-3.841, p = 0.006), perineural invasion (HR: 2.118; 95%-CI: 1.147-4.054, p = 0.016) and postoperative complications graded in points according to Clavien-Dindo (HR: 1.395; 95%-CI: 1.148-1.699, p = 0.001) were indentified as independent significant risk factors for survival. Patients receiving preoperative biliary stenting showed prolonged duration between onset of symptoms and date of operation (p = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative biliary stenting reduces survival possibly due to delayed surgery. The extent of surgery is not an independent risk factor for survival except for patients with concomitant histological venous invasion. Oncological factors and postoperative surgical complications are independent prognostic factors for survival.

Renal cell cancer after kidney transplantation.

PURPOSE: This study aims to identify modifiable risk factors for de novo renal cell carcinoma (RCC) after kidney transplantation in a matched-pair approach matching for unmodifiable factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One thousand six hundred fifty-five adults who underwent kidney transplantation in the period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2012 were analyzed. Patients with RCC after kidney transplantation were matched in a 1:2 ratio with those without RCC using the indication for transplantation, age at transplantation (± 10 years), recipient sex (male/female), number of received transplants, living organ donor transplantation (yes/no), and time of follow-up in days as matching criteria. The paired t test was used to compare continuous variables and the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test for categorical variables. Multivariable conditional logistic regression modeling was used to identify independent risk factors for RCC. RESULTS: In matched-pair analysis, a total number of 26 incident cases with RCC after kidney transplantation could be matched. Post-transplant RCC was significantly associated with longer durations of pre-transplant hemodialysis (p = 0.007) and post-transplant immunosuppression with cyclosporine (p = 0.029) and/or mycophenolate mofetil (p = 0.020) and with larger proportions of post-transplant time on mycophenolate mofetil (p = 0.046) and/or prednisolone medication (p = 0.042). Multivariable conditional logistic regression modeling revealed a significant risk increasing multiplicative factor interaction between the duration of pre-transplant dialysis (years) and the time of prednisolone usage (percent/100). Cyclosporine A usage and mycophenolate mofetil usage were also revealed as independent, significant risk factors for RCC development. CONCLUSIONS: Longer pre-transplant dialysis, cyclosporine-based protocols and/or intensified immunosuppression with additional mycophenolate mofetil, and larger proportions of time of prednisolone treatment during follow-up increase de novo RCC risk.

Evolutionary Distance Predicts Recurrence After Liver Transplantation in Multifocal Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Liver transplantation (LTx) is a potentially curative treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis. However, patients, where HCC is already a systemic disease, LTx may be individually harmful and has a negative impact on donor organ usage. Thus, there is a need for improved selection criteria beyond nodule morphology to select patients with a favorable outcome for LTx in multifocal HCC. Evolutionary distance measured from genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism data between tumor nodules and the cirrhotic liver may be a prognostic marker of survival after LTx for multifocal HCC. METHODS: In a retrospective multicenter study, clinical data and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens of the liver and 2 tumor nodules were obtained from explants of 30 patients in the discovery and 180 patients in the replication cohort. DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens followed by genome wide single-nucleotide polymorphism genotyping. RESULTS: Genotype quality criteria allowed for analysis of 8 patients in the discovery and 17 patients in the replication set. DNA concentrations of a total of 25 patients fulfilled the quality criteria and were included in the analysis. Both, in the discovery (P = 0.04) and in the replication data sets (P = 0.01), evolutionary distance was associated with the risk of recurrence of HCC after transplantation (combined P = 0.0002). In a univariate analysis, evolutionary distance (P = 7.4 × 10) and microvascular invasion (P = 1.31 × 10) were significantly associated with survival in a Cox regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Evolutionary distance allows for the determination of a high-risk group of recurrence if preoperative liver biopsy is considered.

Prognostic factors for long-term survival after adult liver transplantation.

PURPOSE: Prognostic factors for survival ≥ 15 years and life years lost after liver transplantation are largely unknown. METHODS: One thousand six hundred thirty primary adult liver transplants between 1983 and 2014 were analyzed. Risk factors for survival were identified with multivariable Cox regression and subsequently tested for their relevance as prognostic factors for observed 15-year survival using multivariable logistic regression and c statistics. The difference of life expectancy between a matched national reference population and survival in patients with post-transplant survival ≥ 15 years was calculated. RESULTS: Survival of ≥ 15 years was observed in 361 patients (22%). Sixty-nine adults died after more than 15 years losing a median of 15 years of life expectancy. One of those patients lived longer while 292 patients still have the chance to survive longer than their normal life expectancy. The indication primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and later eras of transplantation were identified as significant independent protective factors while recipient age > 36.8 years, graft loss due to initial non-function or thrombosis, the indications hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), hepatitis-C-virus-related cirrhosis (HCV-cirrhosis) and all other indications, donor age > 53 years, the number of surgical complications, and operative durations > 4.5 h were identified as significant independent risk factors limiting survival. All of these factors except the duration of operation had also a significant independent influence on observed 15-year survival (AUROC = 0.739). CONCLUSIONS: Recipients can exceptionally live longer than their normal life expectancy. Older recipients and patients with the indications HCC, HCV-cirrhosis, or other indications except PSC, should be transplanted with younger donor organs.