Development and internal validation of the multivariable CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) clinical risk prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) outcome prediction models, such as Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), were designed in general critical care populations and their use in obstetric populations is contentious. The aim of the CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) study was to develop and internally validate a multivariable prognostic model calibrated specifically for pregnant or recently delivered women admitted for critical care. METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort was created for this study from 13 tertiary facilities across five high-income and six low- or middle-income countries. Women admitted to an ICU for more than 24 h during pregnancy or less than 6 weeks post-partum from 2000 to 2012 were included in the cohort. A composite primary outcome was defined as maternal death or need for organ support for more than 7 days or acute life-saving intervention. Model development involved selection of candidate predictor variables based on prior evidence of effect, availability across study sites, and use of LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) model building after multiple imputation using chained equations to address missing data for variable selection. The final model was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Internal validation was completed using bootstrapping to correct for optimism in model performance measures of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Overall, 127 out of 769 (16.5%) women experienced an adverse outcome. Predictors included in the final CIPHER model were maternal age, surgery in the preceding 24 h, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale score, serum sodium, serum potassium, activated partial thromboplastin time, arterial blood gas (ABG) pH, serum creatinine, and serum bilirubin. After internal validation, the model maintained excellent discrimination (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.84) and good calibration (slope of 0.92, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.92 and intercept of -0.11, 95% CI -0.13 to -0.08). CONCLUSIONS: The CIPHER model has the potential to be a pragmatic risk prediction tool. CIPHER can identify critically ill pregnant women at highest risk for adverse outcomes, inform counseling of patients about risk, and facilitate bench-marking of outcomes between centers by adjusting for baseline risk.

Fetoscopic laser therapy for twin-twin transfusion syndrome before 17 and after 26 weeks' gestation.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare perinatal outcomes of pregnancies that undergo "early" (<17 weeks' gestation) or "late" (>26 weeks' gestation) fetoscopic laser ablation of placental vascular anastomoses for twin-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) with "conventional" cases that were treated at 17-26 weeks' gestation. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a single center, retrospective analysis of 325 consecutive pregnancies that underwent fetoscopic laser therapy for severe TTTS. RESULTS: Twenty-four "early," 18 "late," and 283 "conventional" pregnancies with severe TTTS underwent laser therapy. Fetoscopy duration, gestation at delivery, survival rate, and complications were comparable among groups, except for preterm premature rupture of membranes at <7 days after laser therapy, which was more common in the "early" group than in either of the other 2 groups. CONCLUSION: Laser therapy for TTTS at <17 or >26 weeks' gestation has similar outcomes to procedures done at 17-26 weeks' gestation. We suggest that conventional gestational age guidelines of 16-26 weeks for laser therapy for TTTS should be reevaluated.

Gastroschisis: what is the average gestational age of spontaneous delivery?

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: To consolidate what is known about pregnancies complicated by fetal gastroschisis through analysis of one of the largest series yet reported and to define the average gestational age of spontaneous delivery. METHODS: From 1980 to 2001, 159 pregnancies complicated by fetal gastroschisis were identified at a tertiary care center. Gestational age at delivery, birth weight, preterm delivery rate, and maternal age were compared to the 2001 general population statistics. Patients with pregnancies complicated by gastroschisis who went into spontaneous labor (n = 86) were subdivided into 2 groups based on gestational age (< 37 weeks and > or = 37 weeks). Operative delivery rates for nonreassuring fetal status and Apgar scores were assessed. RESULTS: Gastroschisis occurred more often in younger mothers (< 21 years) (42% vs 7.3%), was more frequently associated with preterm labor and delivery (28% vs 6%), and was associated with more low-birth-weight babies (36% vs 10%). The mean gestational age at spontaneous labor was 36.6 weeks. In those patients who labored spontaneously, there were no significant differences in the operative delivery rates for fetal distress; however, there was a trend to lower Apgar scores in babies born at 37 weeks or more. CONCLUSION: Our data provide a framework for further studies to determine the optimal timing and mode of delivery for fetuses with gastroschisis.

Impact of selective laser ablation of placental anastomoses on the cardiovascular pathology of the recipient twin in severe twin-twin transfusion syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the impact of selective laser ablation on the cardiovascular pathology of the recipient twin in twin-twin transfusion syndrome. STUDY DESIGN: Fetal echocardiograms and medical records were reviewed from 22 pregnancies with severe twin-twin transfusion syndrome where echocardiography was performed before and after laser. RESULTS: Before laser, cardiomegaly associated with right and/or left ventricular hypertrophy without ventricular dilatation, was observed in most cases. Right ventricular and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (shortening fraction <28%) was present in 59% and 27%, respectively, and diastolic dysfunction (based on inflow and venous Dopplers) in 73%. Shortly after laser, biventricular systolic function improved significantly and diastolic function tended to improve (50%, P = .06). Functional pulmonary atresia, secondary to right ventricular systolic dysfunction, resolved in 2 of 2 cases at post-laser echocardiography. On serial assessment, diastolic function was normal in 7 of 10, hydrops regressed in 4 of 5, and neither progressive myocardial hypertrophy nor anatomical right ventricular outflow obstruction were found. CONCLUSIONS: Selective laser ablation in severe twin-twin transfusion syndrome acutely improves biventricular systolic function and tends to improve diastolic function in the recipient twin.