Temporal Trends in Noncardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality Following Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Due to improved management, diagnosis, and care of myocardial infarction (MI), patients may now survive long enough to increasingly develop serious noncardiovascular conditions. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to test this hypothesis by investigating the temporal trends in noncardiovascular morbidity and mortality following MI. METHODS: We conducted a registry-based nationwide cohort study of all Danish patients with MI during 2000 to 2017. Outcomes were cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality, incident cancer, incident renal disease, and severe infectious disease. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2017, 136,293 consecutive patients were identified (63.2% men, median age 69 years). The 1-year risk of cardiovascular mortality between 2000 to 2002 and 2015 to 2017 decreased from 18.4% to 7.6%, whereas noncardiovascular mortality decreased from 5.8% to 5.0%. This corresponded to an increase in the proportion of total 1-year mortality attributed to noncardiovascular causes from 24.1% to 39.5%. Furthermore, increases in 1-year risk of incident cancer (1.9%-2.4%), incident renal disease (1.0%-1.6%), and infectious disease (5.5%-9.1%) were observed (all P trend <0.01). In analyses standardized for changes in patient characteristics, the increased risk of cancer in 2015 to 2017 compared with 2000 to 2002 was no longer significant (standardized risk ratios for cancer: 0.99 [95% CI: 0.91-1.07]; renal disease: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.15-1.41]; infectious disease: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.23-1.34]). CONCLUSIONS: Although cardiovascular mortality following MI improved substantially during 2000 to 2017, the risk of noncardiovascular morbidity increased. Moreover, noncardiovascular causes constitute an increasing proportion of post-MI mortality. These findings suggest that further attention on noncardiovascular outcomes is warranted in guidelines and clinical practice and should be considered in the design of future clinical trials.

Simple cardiovascular risk stratification by replacing total serum cholesterol with anthropometric measures: The MORGAM prospective cohort project.

To assess whether anthropometric measures (body mass index [BMI], waist-hip ratio [WHR], and estimated fat mass [EFM]) are independently associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and to assess their added prognostic value compared with serum total-cholesterol. The study population comprised 109,509 individuals (53% men) from the MORGAM-Project, aged 19-97 years, without established cardiovascular disease, and not on antihypertensive treatment. While BMI was reported in all, WHR and EFM were reported in âˆ¼52,000 participants. Prognostic importance of anthropometric measurements and total-cholesterol was evaluated using adjusted Cox proportional-hazards regression, logistic regression, area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUCROC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). The primary endpoint was MACE, a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death from coronary heart disease. Age interacted significantly with anthropometric measures and total-cholesterol on MACE (P ≤ 0.003), and therefore age-stratified analyses (<50 versus ≥ 50 years) were performed. BMI, WHR, EFM, and total-cholesterol were independently associated with MACE (P ≤ 0.003) and resulted in significantly positive NRI when added to age, sex, smoking status, and systolic blood pressure. Only total-cholesterol increased discrimination ability (AUCROC difference; P < 0.001). In subjects < 50 years, the prediction model with total-cholesterol was superior to the model including BMI, but not superior to models containing WHR or EFM, while in those ≥ 50 years, the model with total-cholesterol was superior to all models containing anthropometric variables, whether assessed individually or combined. We found a potential role for replacing total-cholesterol with anthropometric measures for MACE-prediction among individuals < 50 years when laboratory measurements are unavailable, but not among those ≥ 50 years.

Does Estimated Pulse Wave Velocity Add Prognostic Information?: MORGAM Prospective Cohort Project.

The Reference Values for Arterial Stiffness Collaboration has derived an equation using age and mean blood pressure to estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), which predicted cardiovascular events independently of Systematic COoronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and Framingham Risk Score. The study aim was to investigate the independent association between ePWV and clinical outcomes in 107 599 apparently healthy subjects (53% men) aged 19 to 97 years from the MORGAM Project who were included between 1982 and 2002 in 38 cohorts from 11 countries. Using multiple Cox-regression analyses, the predictive value of ePWV was calculated adjusting for country of inclusion and either SCORE, Framingham Risk Score, or traditional cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index [BMI], total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Cardiovascular mortality consisted of fatal stroke, fatal myocardial infarction, or coronary death, and the composite cardiovascular end point consisted of stroke, myocardial infarction, or coronary death. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic. Adjusting for country and logSCORE or Framingham Risk Score, ePWV was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI 1.20-1.25] per m/s or 1.32 [1.29-1.34]), cardiovascular mortality (1.26 [1.21-1.32] or 1.35 [1.31-1.40]), and composite cardiovascular end point (1.19 [1.16-1.22] or 1.23 [1.20-1.25]; all P<0.001). However, after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, ePWV was only associated with all-cause mortality (1.15 [1.08-1.22], P<0.001) and not with cardiovascular mortality (0.97 [0.91-1.03]) nor composite cardiovascular end point (1.10 [0.97-1.26]). The areas under the last 3 receiver operator characteristic curves remained unchanged when adding ePWV. Elevated ePWV was associated with subsequent mortality and cardiovascular morbidity independently of systematic coronary risk evaluation and Framingham Risk Score but not independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Cost-effectiveness of Canakinumab for Prevention of Recurrent Cardiovascular Events.

Importance: In the Canakinumab Anti-inflammatory Thrombosis Outcome Study (CANTOS) trial, the anti-inflammatory monoclonal antibody canakinumab significantly reduced the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with previous myocardial infarction (MI) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels of 2 mg/L or greater. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding canakinumab to standard of care for the secondary prevention of major cardiovascular events over a range of potential prices. Design, Setting, and Participants: A state-transition Markov model was constructed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon by projecting rates of recurrent MI, coronary revascularization, infection, and lung cancer with and without canakinumab treatment. We used a US health care sector perspective, and the base case used the current US market price of canakinumab of $73 000 per year. A hypothetical cohort of patients after MI aged 61 years with an hs-CRP level of 2 mg/L or greater was constructed. Interventions: Canakinumab, 150 mg, administered every 3 months plus standard of care compared with standard of care alone. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually. Results: Adding canakinumab to standard of care increased life expectancy from 11.31 to 11.36 years, QALYs from 9.37 to 9.50, and costs from $242 000 to $1 074 000, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6.4 million per QALY gained. The price would have to be reduced by more than 98% (to $1150 per year or less) to meet the $100 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. These results were generally robust across alternative assumptions, eg, substantially lower health-related quality of life after recurrent cardiovascular events, lower infection rates while receiving canakinumab, and reduced all-cause mortality while receiving canakinumab. Including a potential beneficial effect of canakinumab on lung cancer incidence improved the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to $3.5 million per QALY gained. A strategy of continuing canakinumab selectively in patients with reduction in hs-CRP levels to less than 2 mg/L would have a cost-effectiveness ratio of $819 000 per QALY gained. Conclusions and Relevance: Canakinumab is not cost-effective at current US prices for prevention of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with a prior MI. Substantial price reductions would be needed for canakinumab to be considered cost-effective.

Identifying Drug-Drug Interactions by Data Mining: A Pilot Study of Warfarin-Associated Drug Interactions.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about drug-drug interactions commonly arises from preclinical trials, from adverse drug reports, or based on knowledge of mechanisms of action. Our aim was to investigate whether drug-drug interactions were discoverable without prior hypotheses using data mining. We focused on warfarin-drug interactions as the prototype. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed altered prothrombin time (measured as international normalized ratio [INR]) after initiation of a novel prescription in previously INR-stable warfarin-treated patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Data sets were retrieved from clinical work. Random forest (a machine-learning method) was set up to predict altered INR levels after novel prescriptions. The most important drug groups from the analysis were further investigated using logistic regression in a new data set. Two hundred and twenty drug groups were analyzed in 61 190 novel prescriptions. We rediscovered 2 drug groups having known interactions (ß-lactamase-resistant penicillins [dicloxacillin] and carboxamide derivatives) and 3 antithrombotic/anticoagulant agents (platelet aggregation inhibitors excluding heparin, direct thrombin inhibitors [dabigatran etexilate], and heparins) causing decreasing INR. Six drug groups with known interactions were rediscovered causing increasing INR (antiarrhythmics class III [amiodarone], other opioids [tramadol], glucocorticoids, triazole derivatives, and combinations of penicillins, including ß-lactamase inhibitors) and two had a known interaction in a closely related drug group (oripavine derivatives [buprenorphine] and natural opium alkaloids). Antipropulsives had an unknown signal of increasing INR. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to identify known warfarin-drug interactions without a prior hypothesis using clinical registries. Additionally, we discovered a few potentially novel interactions. This opens up for the use of data mining to discover unknown drug-drug interactions in cardiovascular medicine.

Adipocytokines, C-reactive protein, and cardiovascular disease: a population-based prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Being overweight or obese is associated with a greater risk of coronary heart disease and stroke compared with normal weight. The role of the specific adipose tissue-derived substances, called adipocytokines, in overweight- and obesity-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) is still unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of three adipose tissue-derived substances: adiponectin, leptin, and interleukin-6 with incident CVD in a longitudinal population-based study, including extensive adjustments for traditional and metabolic risk factors closely associated with overweight and obesity. C-reactive protein (CRP) was used as a proxy for interleukin-6. METHODS: Prospective population-based study of 6.502 participants, 51.9% women, aged 30-60 years, free of CVD at baseline, with a mean follow-up time of 11.4 years, equivalent to 74,123 person-years of follow-up. As outcome, we defined a composite outcome comprising of the first event of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease and fatal and nonfatal stroke. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 453 composite CV outcomes occurred among participants with complete datasets. In models, including gender, age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, diabetes, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, estimated glomerular filtration rate, adiponectin, leptin, and CRP, neither adiponectin (hazard ratio [HR] with 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97 [0.87-1.08] per SD increase, P = 0.60) nor leptin (0.97 [0.85-1.12] per SD increase, P = 0.70) predicted the composite outcome, whereas CRP was significantly associated with the composite outcome (1.19 [1.07-1.35] per SD increase, P = 0.002). Furthermore, in mediation analysis, adjusted for age and sex, CRP decreased the BMI-associated CV risk by 43% (95%CI 29-72). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, neither adiponectin nor leptin were independently associated with CVD, raising questions over their role in CVD. The finding that CRP was significantly associated with an increased risk of CVD and decreased the BMI-associated CVD risk substantially, could imply that interleukin-6-related pathways may play a role in mediating overweight- and obesity-related CVD.