Machine learning classifier is associated with mortality in interstitial lung disease: a retrospective validation study leveraging registry data.

BACKGROUND: Mortality prediction in interstitial lung disease (ILD) poses a significant challenge to clinicians due to heterogeneity across disease subtypes. Currently, forced vital capacity (FVC) and Gender, Age, and Physiology (GAP) score are the two most utilized metrics in prognostication. Recently, a machine learning classifier system, Fibresolve, designed to identify a variety of computed tomography (CT) patterns associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), was demonstrated to have a significant association with mortality across multiple subtypes of ILD. The purpose of this follow-up study was to retrospectively validate these findings in a large, external cohort of patients with ILD. METHODS: In this multi-center validation study, Fibresolve was applied to chest CT scans of patients with confirmed ILD that had available follow-up data. Fibresolve scores categorized by tertile were analyzed using Cox regression analysis adjusted for tobacco use and modified GAP (mGAP) score. RESULTS: Of 643 patients included, 446 (69.3%) died over a median follow-up time of 144 [1-821] weeks. The median [range] mGAP score was 5 [3-7]. In multivariable analysis, Fibresolve score categorized by tertile was significantly associated with mortality (Tertile 2 HR 1.47, 95% CI 0.82-2.37, p = 0.11; Tertile 3 HR 3.12, 95% CI 1.98-4.90, p < 0.001). Subgroup analyses revealed significant associations amongst those with non-IPF ILDs (Tertile 2 HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.28-2.97, Tertile 3 HR 4.66, 95% CI 2.94-7.38) and severe disease, defined by a FVC ≤ 75% (Tertile 2 HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.43-3.67, Tertile 3 HR 4.80, 95% CI 2.93-7.86). CONCLUSIONS: Fibresolve is independently associated with mortality in ILD, particularly amongst patients with non-IPF ILDs and in those with severe disease.

Tobacco smoking is associated with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema and worse outcomes in interstitial lung disease.

Tobacco smoking is an established cause of pulmonary disease whose contribution to interstitial lung disease (ILD) is incompletely characterized. We hypothesized that compared with nonsmokers, subjects who smoked tobacco would differ in their clinical phenotype and have greater mortality. We performed a retrospective cohort study of tobacco smoking in ILD. We evaluated demographic and clinical characteristics, time to clinically meaningful lung function decline (LFD), and mortality in patients stratified by tobacco smoking status (ever vs. never) within a tertiary center ILD registry (2006-2021) and replicated mortality outcomes across four nontertiary medical centers. Data were analyzed by two-sided t tests, Poisson generalized linear models, and Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO), ILD subtype, antifibrotic therapy, and hospital center. Of 1,163 study participants, 651 were tobacco smokers. Smokers were more likely to be older, male, have idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), coronary artery disease, CT honeycombing and emphysema, higher FVC, and lower DLCO than nonsmokers (P < 0.01). Time to LFD in smokers was shorter (19.7 ± 20 mo vs. 24.8 ± 29 mo; P = 0.038) and survival time was decreased [10.75 (10.08-11.50) yr vs. 20 (18.67-21.25) yr; adjusted mortality HR = 1.50, 95%CI 1.17-1.92; P < 0.0001] compared with nonsmokers. Smokers had 12% greater odds of death for every additional 10 pack yr of smoking (P < 0.0001). Mortality outcomes remained consistent in the nontertiary cohort (HR = 1.51, 95%CI = 1.03-2.23; P = 0.036). Tobacco smokers with ILD have a distinct clinical phenotype strongly associated with the syndrome of combined PF and emphysema, shorter time to LFD, and decreased survival. Smoking prevention may improve ILD outcomes.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Smoking in ILD is associated with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema and worse clinical outcomes.