Screening for liver fibrosis: lessons from colorectal and lung cancer screening.

Many countries have incorporated population screening programmes for cancer, such as colorectal and lung cancer, into their health-care systems. Cirrhosis is more prevalent than colorectal cancer and has a comparable age-standardized mortality rate to lung cancer. Despite this fact, there are no screening programmes in place for early detection of liver fibrosis, the precursor of cirrhosis. In this Perspective, we use insights from colorectal and lung cancer screening to explore the benefits, challenges, implementation strategies and pathways for future liver fibrosis screening initiatives. Several non-invasive methods and referral pathways for early identification of liver fibrosis exist, but in addition to accurate detection, screening programmes must also be cost-effective and demonstrate benefit through a reduction in liver-related mortality. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm this. Future randomized screening trials should evaluate not only the screening tests, but also interventions used to halt disease progression in individuals identified through screening.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not. RESULTS: Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46). CONCLUSION: Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Therapeutic value of first versus supplemental indications of drugs in US and Europe (2011-20): retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the therapeutic value of supplemental indications compared with first indications for drugs approved in the US and Europe. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: New and supplemental indications approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) between 2011 and 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of first and supplemental indications rated as having high therapeutic value using ratings from the French and German national, independent health authorities. RESULTS: The cohort study included 124 first and 335 supplemental indications approved by the FDA and 88 first and 215 supplemental indications approved by the EMA between 2011 and 2020; the largest subset was for cancer disorders. Therapeutic ratings were available for 107 (86%) first and 179 (53%) supplemental indications in the US and for 87 (99%) first and 184 (86%) supplemental indications in Europe. Among FDA approved indications with available ratings, 41% (44/107) had high therapeutic value ratings for first indications compared with 34% (61/179) for supplemental indications. In Europe, 47% (41/87) of first and 36% (67/184) of supplemental indications had high therapeutic value ratings. Among FDA approvals, when the sample was restricted to the first three approved indications, second indication approvals were 36% less likely to have a high value rating (relative ratio 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.96) and third indication approvals were 45% less likely (0.55, 0.29 to 1.01) compared with the first indication approval. Similar findings were observed for Europe and when weighting by the inverse number of indications for each drug. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of supplemental indications rated as having high therapeutic value was substantially lower than for first indications. When first or supplemental indications do not offer added therapeutic value over other available treatments, that information should be clearly communicated to patients and physicians and reflected in the price of the drugs.

The cancer premium - explaining differences in prices for cancer vs non-cancer drugs with efficacy and epidemiological endpoints in the US, Germany, and Switzerland: a cross sectional study.

Background: High treatment prices of new cancer drugs are a global public health challenge to patients and healthcare systems. Policymakers in the US and Europe are debating reforms to drug pricing. The objective of this study was to assess whether drug efficacy or epidemiological characteristics (prevalence, incidence, mortality) explain the gap in treatment prices between cancer and non-cancer drugs in the US, Germany, and Switzerland. Methods: This cross-sectional study identified all new drugs approved in the US, Germany, and Switzerland between 2011 and 2020. Drug efficacy was extracted from pivotal trials, drug prices from public and commercial databases, and epidemiological characteristics from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. We used regression models to explain drug prices with drug efficacy and epidemiological characteristics (prevalence, incidence, mortality). Findings: The cohort included 181 drugs, including 68 (37.5%) drugs approved for treatment of cancer. A significant negative correlation was found between incidence/prevalence and treatment prices, and a significant positive correlation was observed between mortality and treatment prices for both, cancer and non-cancer drugs. A significant association between relative drug efficacy and treatment prices of drugs was observed, however, less pronounced for cancer drugs. Our regression estimates indicated that after adjusting for efficacy and epidemiological characteristics, cancer drugs were on average approximately three times more expensive compared to non-cancer drugs in all three countries, indicating a cancer premium; i.e., treatment prices of cancer drugs were on average USD 74,412 (95% CI [62,810; 86,015]) more expensive in the US compared to non-cancer drugs, USD 37,770 (95% CI [26,175; 49,367]) more expensive in Germany, and USD 32,801 (95% CI [27,048; 38,555]) more expensive in Switzerland. Our model explained 72% of the variance in observed prices (R2). Interpretation: Drug pricing reforms should target the cancer premium to improve access of patients to cancer drugs as well as to achieve equity across the different therapeutic areas and sustainability in the health care systems. Funding: This study was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF, grant number PCEGP1_194607) and the Swiss Cancer Research Foundation (Krebsforschung Schweiz).

Delivering Safe Surgical Care While Simultaneously Caring for Patients With COVID-19; Assessment of Patient Selection, Volume and Outcomes in a Tertiary Care Hospital.

Objectives: Compare patient selection and postoperative outcomes after surgical treatment for gastrointestinal disorders before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Methods: We assessed gastrointestinal surgeries conducted at a tertiary center from 2017-2021 for differences in patient populations and procedures before (up to February 2020) and during the pandemic (March 2020 to December 2021). We analyzed mortality, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) length of stay, admission to ICU and postoperative complications for complex procedures using descriptive statistics and regression models. Results: 7309 procedures were analyzed, showing a caseload reduction in March and October 2020, but no statistical evidence for fewer overall procedures overall. Population characteristics differed with lower Body Mass Indices in 2020 and 2021, more patients smoking and with diabetes treated in 2020. There was no increased mortality, ICU length of stay and in 1,144 complex procedures assessed low overall morbidity at 90 days postoperative. Conclusion: Delivering surgical care while treating patients for COVID-19 in the same hospital was safe. Healthcare officials should consider continuing surgical care during future health crises as consequences of limiting surgical treatment for gastrointestinal disorders may be fatal for patients.

Nationwide indoor smoking ban and impact on smoking behaviour and lung function: a two-population natural experiment.

INTRODUCTION: Many countries have implemented indoor smoking bans over the past two decades. Although smoking bans have been shown to reduce cardiovascular outcomes, little is known about their impact on respiratory health. This study investigated the impact of a nationwide indoor smoking ban on smoking behaviour and lung function. METHODS: We used repeated cross-sectional data from two large cohorts of the general population comprising 31 807 Swiss and 62 093 Danish adults. We compared associations between smoking ban and smoking prevalence and prebronchodilator lung function trends in Denmark (indoor smoking ban introduced in 2007) and Switzerland (indoor smoking ban introduced in 2010) from 2005 to 2010 using a quasi-experimental study design. We performed difference-in-difference analyses with linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, weight and height. RESULTS: Denmark had a stronger decrease in active smokers compared with Switzerland. Also, forced expiratory volume in the first second was higher in Danish adults than in Swiss adults: 26 mL (95% CI 2.4 to 49) 1 year, 88 mL (65 to 112) 2 years, and 74 mL (51 to 98) 3 years after smoking ban implementation. Correspondingly, forced vital capacity was higher in Danish adults compared with Swiss adults (80 mL (50 to 109) after 1 year and 126 mL (97 to 155) after two and 3 years). Improvements were observed in both never-smokers and ever-smokers, most pronounced in ever-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Nationwide indoor smoking ban is associated with less smoking and improved lung function in the general population. Implementing an indoor smoking ban can improve lung function by influencing smoking behaviour and reducing secondhand smoke.

A discrete choice experiment on price and flavour effects on the appeal of nicotine products: a pilot study among young adults in Switzerland.

AIMS: To explore the effects of prices and flavour availability on the appeal of different tobacco and nicotine products, including conventional cigarettes, Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) and Heated Tobacco Systems (HTS) among an adult population in Switzerland. METHODS: We performed a Discrete Choice Experiment among a group of Swiss aged ≥18 years via the online recruiting platform Prolific in a convenience sample. Our sample included both non-smokers and smokers. We used a within-subject, alternative-specific block design in a series of choice sets including different smoking products. We fixed the attributes of nicotine content (high or medium) and harmfulness (in years of life lost) for each product. Attributes of interest included price (ranging from CHF 5 to 25 in increments of 5) and flavour (fruity/menthol vs none/tobacco flavour). We performed a conditional logistic regression on the attributes' influence on the appeal of cigarettes, ENDS and HTS. RESULTS: A total of 108 out of 153 participants (n = 25 smokers and n = 83 non-smokers, completion rate = 71%) successfully completed our pilot survey experiment. We found that, in general, increasing the price of combustible cigarettes, ENDS and HTS by one standard deviation (around CHF 7) reduced their appeal by approximately 66% (relative risk [RR]: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.28-0.42). Unflavoured alternative nicotine products were found to be less appealing than flavoured products, especially for non-smokers, with a 86% decrease in appeal (RR: 0.14; 95% CI: 0.13-0.16). For non-smokers, an increase in price by one standard deviation was associated with a decrease in the appeal of any product by approximately 19% (RR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.72-0.92). For smokers, the effect sizes were smaller, but overall, the appeal of all products decreased with increasing prices and reduced flavours. CONCLUSIONS: Our Discrete Choice Experiment suggests that, for the Swiss context, limiting the availability of flavours for alternative smoking products has the potential to reduce their appeal to non-smokers by 86% and that a small but significant increase in prices to CHF 15 for cigarettes, ENDS and HTS could lead to a major (around 66%) decrease in their appeal.

High frequency of acute decompensation and cancer in patients with compensated cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A retrospective cohort study.

The natural history of compensated cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has not been completely characterized. The aim of the present study was to assess the incidence and risk factors of acute decompensation of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and extrahepatic cancers. This was a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study including 449 patients with compensated cirrhosis due to NAFLD. We calculated cumulative incidences and used competitive risk analysis to determine the risk factors associated with decompensation and cancer development. Over a median of 39 months of follow-up, 124 patients (28%) presented acute decompensation. The most frequent decompensation was ascites (21%) followed by hepatic encephalopathy (15%), variceal bleeding (9%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (3%). Acute-on-chronic liver failure was diagnosed in 6% of patients during follow-up. Liver function parameters and specifically an albumin level below 40 g/L were independently associated with an increased risk of decompensation. The presence of ischemic heart disease was independently associated with acute decompensation. Seventy-eight patients (18%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma or extrahepatic cancers during follow-up (51 and 27, respectively). Conclusion: Patients with compensated cirrhosis due to NAFLD are at high risk of severe liver complications, such as the development of acute decompensation, in a relative short follow-up time. This population is at high risk of hepatic and extrahepatic cancers.

LiverScreen project: study protocol for screening for liver fibrosis in the general population in European countries.

BACKGROUND: The development of liver cirrhosis is usually an asymptomatic process until late stages when complications occur. The potential reversibility of the disease is dependent on early diagnosis of liver fibrosis and timely targeted treatment. Recently, the use of non-invasive tools has been suggested for screening of liver fibrosis, especially in subjects with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Nevertheless, large population-based studies with cost-effectiveness analyses are still lacking to support the widespread use of such tools. The aim of this study is to investigate whether non-invasive liver stiffness measurement in the general population is useful to identify subjects with asymptomatic, advanced chronic liver disease. METHODS: This study aims to include 30,000 subjects from eight European countries. Subjects from the general population aged ≥ 40 years without known liver disease will be invited to participate in the study either through phone calls/letters or through their primary care center. In the first study visit, subjects will undergo bloodwork as well as hepatic fat quantification and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography. If LSM is ≥ 8 kPa and/or if ALT levels are ≥1.5 x upper limit of normal, subjects will be referred to hospital for further evaluation and consideration of liver biopsy. The primary outcome is the percentage of subjects with LSM ≥ 8kPa. In addition, a health economic evaluation will be performed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of such an intervention. The project is funded by the European Commission H2020 program. DISCUSSION: This study comes at an especially important time, as the burden of chronic liver diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. There is consequently an urgent need to change our current approach, from diagnosing the disease late when the impact of interventions may be limited to diagnosing the disease earlier, when the patient is asymptomatic and free of complications, and the disease potentially reversible. Ultimately, the LiverScreen study will serve as a basis from which diagnostic pathways can be developed and adapted to the specific socio-economic and healthcare conditions in each country. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT03789825 ).

Surgeons' risk perception in ASD surgery: The value of objective risk assessment on decision making and patient counselling.

BACKGROUND: Surgeons often rely on their intuition, experience and published data for surgical decision making and informed consent. Literature provides average values that do not allow for individualized assessments. Accurate validated machine learning (ML) risk calculators for adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients, based on 10 year multicentric prospective data, are currently available. The objective of this study is to assess surgeon ASD risk perception and compare it to validated risk calculator estimates. METHODS: Nine ASD complete (demographics, HRQL, radiology, surgical plan) preoperative cases were distributed online to 100 surgeons from 22 countries. Surgeons were asked to determine the risk of major complications and reoperations at 72 h, 90 d and 2 years postop, using a 0-100% risk scale. The same preoperative parameters circulated to surgeons were used to obtain ML risk calculator estimates. Concordance between surgeons' responses was analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) (poor < 0.5/excellent > 0.85). Distance between surgeons' and risk calculator predictions was assessed using the mean index of agreement (MIA) (poor < 0.5/excellent > 0.85). RESULTS: Thirty-nine surgeons (74.4% with > 10 years' experience), from 12 countries answered the survey. Surgeons' risk perception concordance was very low and heterogeneous. ICC ranged from 0.104 (reintervention risk at 72 h) to 0.316 (reintervention risk at 2 years). Distance between calculator and surgeon prediction was very large. MIA ranged from 0.122 to 0.416. Surgeons tended to overestimate the risk of major complications and reintervention in the first 72 h and underestimated the same risks at 2 years postop. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that expert surgeon ASD risk perception is heterogeneous and highly discordant. Available validated ML ASD risk calculators can enable surgeons to provide more accurate and objective prognosis to adjust patient expectations, in real time, at the point of care.

Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases.

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

Quality of Colonoscopy Is Associated With Adenoma Detection and Postcolonoscopy Colorectal Cancer Prevention in Lynch Syndrome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colonoscopy reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in Lynch syndrome (LS) carriers. However, a high incidence of postcolonoscopy CRC (PCCRC) has been reported. Colonoscopy is highly dependent on endoscopist skill and is subject to quality variability. We aimed to evaluate the impact of key colonoscopy quality indicators on adenoma detection and prevention of PCCRC in LS. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter study focused on LS carriers without previous CRC undergoing colonoscopy surveillance (n = 893). Incident colorectal neoplasia during surveillance and quality indicators of all colonoscopies were analyzed. We performed an emulated target trial comparing the results from the first and second surveillance colonoscopies to assess the effect of colonoscopy quality indicators on adenoma detection and PCCRC incidence. Risk analyses were conducted using a multivariable logistic regression model. RESULTS: The 10-year cumulative incidence of adenoma and PCCRC was 60.6% (95% CI, 55.5%-65.2%) and 7.9% (95% CI, 5.2%-10.6%), respectively. Adequate bowel preparation (odds ratio [OR], 2.07; 95% CI, 1.06-4.3), complete colonoscopies (20% vs 0%; P = .01), and pan-chromoendoscopy use (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.15-3.95) were associated with significant improvement in adenoma detection. PCCRC risk was significantly lower when colonoscopies were performed during a time interval of less than every 3 years (OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.14-0.97). We observed a consistent but not significant reduction in PCCRC risk for a previous complete examination (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.03-1.28), adequate bowel preparation (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.17-3.24), or previous use of high-definition colonoscopy (OR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.02-2.33). CONCLUSIONS: Complete colonoscopies with adequate bowel preparation and chromoendoscopy use are associated with improved adenoma detection, while surveillance intervals of less than 3 years are associated with a reduction of PCCRC incidence. In LS, high-quality colonoscopy surveillance is of utmost importance for CRC prevention.

Low Accuracy of FIB-4 and NAFLD Fibrosis Scores for Screening for Liver Fibrosis in the Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) are the 2 most popular noninvasive blood-based serum tests proposed for widespread fibrosis screening. We therefore aimed to describe the accuracy of FIB-4 and NFS to detect elevated liver stiffness as an indicator of hepatic fibrosis in low-prevalence populations. METHODS: This study included a total of 5129 patients with concomitant measurement of FIB-4, NFS, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by Fibroscan (Echosens, France) from 5 independent population-based cohorts from Spain, Hong Kong, Denmark, England, and France; 3979 participants from the general population and 1150 from at-risk cohorts due to alcohol, diabetes, or obesity. We correlated LSM with FIB-4 and NFS, and calculated pre- and post-test predictive values of FIB-4 and NFS to detect elevated LSM at 8 kPa and 12 kPa cutoffs. The mean age was 53 ± 12 years, the mean body mass index was 27 ± 5 kg/m2, and 2439 (57%) were women. One in 10 patients (552; 11%) had liver stiffness ≥8 kPa, but 239 of those (43%) had a normal FIB-4, and 171 (31%) had normal NFS. The proportion of false-negatives was higher in at-risk patients than the general population. FIB-4 was false-negative in 11% of diabetic subjects, compared with 2.5% false-negatives with NFS. Waist circumference outperformed FIB-4 and NFS for detecting LSM ≥8 kPa in the general population. Almost one-third (28%-29%) of elevated FIB-4/NFS were false-positive in both the general population and at-risk cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: FIB-4 and NFS are suboptimal for screening purposes due to a high risk of overdiagnosis and a non-negligible percentage of false-negatives, especially in patients with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Waist circumference emerged as a potential first step to identify patients at risk for liver fibrosis in the general population.

Compound Endoscopic Morphological Features for Identifying Non-Pedunculated Lesions ≥20 mm with Intramucosal Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: The major limitation of piecemeal endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) is the inaccurate histological assessment of the resected specimen, especially in cases of submucosal invasion. OBJECTIVE: To classify non-pedunculated lesions ≥20 mm based on endoscopic morphological features, in order to identify those that present intramucosal neoplasia (includes low-grade neoplasia and high-grade neoplasia) and are suitable for piecemeal EMR. DESIGN: A post-hoc analysis from an observational prospective multicentre study conducted by 58 endoscopists at 17 academic and community hospitals was performed. Unbiased conditional inference trees (CTREE) were fitted to analyse the association between intramucosal neoplasia and the lesions' endoscopic characteristics. RESULT: 542 lesions from 517 patients were included in the analysis. Intramucosal neoplasia was present in 484 of 542 (89.3%) lesions. A conditional inference tree including all lesions' characteristics assessed with white light imaging and narrow-band imaging (NBI) found that ulceration, pseudodepressed type and sessile morphology changed the accuracy for predicting intramucosal neoplasia. In ulcerated lesions, the probability of intramucosal neoplasia was 25% (95%CI: 8.3-52.6%; p < 0.001). In non-ulcerated lesions, its probability in lateral spreading lesions (LST) non-granular (NG) pseudodepressed-type lesions rose to 64.0% (95%CI: 42.6-81.3%; p < 0.001). Sessile morphology also raised the probability of intramucosal neoplasia to 86.3% (95%CI: 80.2-90.7%; p < 0.001). In the remaining 319 (58.9%) non-ulcerated lesions that were of the LST-granular (G) homogeneous type, LST-G nodular-mixed type, and LST-NG flat elevated morphology, the probability of intramucosal neoplasia was 96.2% (95%CI: 93.5-97.8%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Non-ulcerated LST-G type and LST-NG flat elevated lesions are the most common non-pedunculated lesions ≥20 mm and are associated with a high probability of intramucosal neoplasia. This means that they are good candidates for piecemeal EMR. In the remaining lesions, further diagnostic techniques like magnification or diagnostic +/- therapeutic endoscopic submucosal dissection should be considered.

Quality metrics in adult spinal deformity surgery over the last decade: a combined analysis of the largest prospective multicenter data sets.

OBJECTIVE: The reported rate of complications and cost of adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery, associated with an exponential increase in the number of surgeries, cause alarm among healthcare payers and providers worldwide. The authors conjointly analyzed the largest prospective available ASD data sets to define trends in quality-of-care indicators (complications, reinterventions, and health-related quality of life [HRQOL] outcomes) since 2010. METHODS: This is an observational prospective longitudinal cohort study. Patients underwent surgery between January 2010 and December 2016, with > 2 years of follow-up data. Demographic, surgical, radiological, and HRQOL (i.e., Oswestry Disability Index, SF-36, Scoliosis Research Society-22r) data obtained preoperatively and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after surgery were evaluated. Trends and changes in indicators were analyzed using local regression (i.e., locally estimated scatterplot smoothing [LOESS]) and adjusted odds ratio (OR). RESULTS: Of the 2286 patients included in the 2 registries, 1520 underwent surgery between 2010 and 2016. A total of 1151 (75.7%) patients who were treated surgically at 23 centers in 5 countries met inclusion criteria. Patient recruitment increased progressively (2010-2011 vs 2015-2016: OR 1.64, p < 0.01), whereas baseline clinical characteristics (age, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, HRQOL scores, sagittal deformity) did not change. Since 2010 there has been a sustained reduction in major and minor postoperative complications observed at 90 days (major: OR 0.59; minor: OR 0.65; p < 0.01); at 1 year (major: OR 0.52; minor: 0.75; p < 0.01); and at 2 years of follow-up (major: OR 0.4; minor: 0.80; p < 0.01) as well as in the 2-year reintervention rate (OR 0.41, p < 0.01). Simultaneously, there has been a slight improvement in the correction of sagittal deformity (i.e., pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis mismatch: OR 1.11, p = 0.19) and a greater gain in quality of life (i.e., Oswestry Disability Index 26% vs 40%, p = 0.02; Scoliosis Research Society-22r, self-image domain OR 1.16, p = 0.13), and these are associated with a progressive reduction of surgical aggressiveness (number of fused segments: OR 0.81, p < 0.01; percent pelvic fixation: OR 0.66, p < 0.01; percent 3-column osteotomies: OR 0.63, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The best available data show a robust global improvement in quality metrics in ASD surgery over the last decade. Surgical complications and reoperations have been reduced by half, while improvement in disability increased and correction rates were maintained, in patients with similar baseline characteristics.

Surgical procedures in inpatient versus outpatient settings and its potential impact on follow-up costs.

OBJECTIVE: We examined real-world effects of cantonal legislations to direct surgery patients from the inpatient to the outpatient setting in Switzerland. METHODS: Analyses were based on claims data of the Helsana Group, a leading Swiss health insurance. The study population consisted of 13'145 (in 2014), 12'455 (in 2016), and 12'875 (in 2018) insured persons aged >18 years who had haemorrhoidectomy, inguinal hernia repair, varicose vein surgery, knee arthroscopy/meniscectomy or surgery of the cervix/uterus. We assessed the proportion of inpatient procedures, index costs, length of hospital stays, outpatient costs and hospitalizations during follow-up, stratified by procedure, in-/outpatient setting, and the presence (enacted/effective in 2018) of a cantonal legislation. We used difference-in-differences methods to study the impact of cantonal legislations. RESULTS: Overall, the proportion of procedures performed in the inpatient setting decreased between 2014 and 2018 (p < 0.001). The decrease between 2016 and 2018 was significantly steeper in cantons with a legislation (p < 0.001; effect size: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.51, 0.64), leading to steeper decreases in healthcare costs of index procedures in cantons with a legislation, with no impact on length of hospital stays. The legislation also had no impact on outpatient costs or hospitalizations during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The cantonal legislations achieved the intended effects of inpatient surgery substitution by outpatient surgery, with no evidence suggesting negative effects on costs or hospitalizations during follow-up.

State-of-the-art reviews predictive modeling in adult spinal deformity: applications of advanced analytics.

Adult spinal deformity (ASD) is a complex and heterogeneous disease that can severely impact patients' lives. While it is clear that surgical correction can achieve significant improvement of spinopelvic parameters and quality of life measures in adults with spinal deformity, there remains a high risk of complication associated with surgical approaches to adult deformity. Over the past decade, utilization of surgical correction for ASD has increased dramatically as deformity correction techniques have become more refined and widely adopted. Along with this increase in surgical utilization, there has been a massive undertaking by spine surgeons to develop more robust models to predict postoperative outcomes in an effort to mitigate the relatively high complication rates. A large part of this revolution within spine surgery has been the gradual adoption of predictive analytics harnessing artificial intelligence through the use of machine learning algorithms. The development of predictive models to accurately prognosticate patient outcomes following ASD surgery represents a dramatic improvement over prior statistical models which are better suited for finding associations between variables than for their predictive utility. Machine learning models, which offer the ability to make more accurate and reproducible predictions, provide surgeons with a wide array of practical applications from augmenting clinical decision making to more wide-spread public health implications. The inclusion of these advanced computational techniques in spine practices will be paramount for improving the care of patients, by empowering both patients and surgeons to more specifically tailor clinical decisions to address individual health profiles and needs.

The dynamics of satisfaction in surgical and non-surgical adult spinal deformity patients.

PURPOSE: For adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients receiving operative (op) and non-operative (non-op) treatment, the relationship between HRQoL measures, complications and self-reported satisfaction remains unclear. The objective of this analysis is to study nonlinear association dynamics between ASD patient satisfaction, HRQoL, and complications over a two-year follow-up period. METHODS: From a prospective multicenter international adult spinal deformity database, all patients with 2-year follow-up data on satisfaction (21st question of SRS-22r) were identified and included. A total of 12 LOESS (local polynomial fit) regressions were performed between patient satisfaction (SRS22 item 21) and HRQoL measures (ODI, SF36PCS and SRS22 subtotal) interacting with surgery at baseline, 6 months and 1 and 2 years of follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 856 patients (527 op and 329 non-op) were included. At baseline, satisfaction was lower for patients scheduled for surgery even when HRQL was similar to those elected for conservative treatment. The nonlinear correlations showed that for similar PROMs, op patients reached higher satisfaction levels during follow-up, especially at six months. In fact, at six months operated patients with a deterioration of their initial PROMs had some improvement in their satisfaction, which could not be further observed at the end of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Satisfaction does not correlate well with other PROMs, and it might be subject to other external factors not directly related to treatment. Even if patient satisfaction is important in evaluating well-being and patient's experience with medical care, it should not be considered as an isolated proxy to measure quality of treatment.

Fecal MicroRNA-Based Algorithm Increases Effectiveness of Fecal Immunochemical Test-Based Screening for Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: An algorithm based on fecal levels of 2 microRNAs (miR-421 and miR-27a-3p), fecal hemoglobin concentration, and patient age and sex can identify patients with advanced colorectal neoplasia. We investigated whether this algorithm, called miRFec, could increase effectiveness and efficiency of fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs. METHODS: We obtained data and fecal samples from 767 persons with a positive result from the FIT who then underwent colonoscopy examination while participating a population-based CRC screening program, from March 2011 through May 2017 in Barcelona, Spain. Fecal miRNAs were isolated from the buffer contained in the original FIT collection device and analyzed by quantitative reverse transcription PCR. Aims were to evaluate the usefulness of the miRFec algorithm in identifying persons at greatest risk for CRC who should be prioritized for colonoscopy examination and individuals at low risk for whom colonoscopy could be avoided. RESULTS: Of the 767 study subjects, 414 (54.0%) were found by colonoscopy to have advanced colorectal neoplasia (67 with CRC and 347 with advanced adenomas) and 353 (46.0%) were found to have either non-advanced adenomas (n = 136) or a normal examination (n = 217). MiRFec algorithm scores (1-4) were independently associated with the presence of advanced colorectal neoplasia (P < .001). The miRFec algorithm differentiated patients with CRC from those with non-advanced adenomas or normal colonoscopy with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 90% (95% CI, 86-94). Subjects with miRFec scores in the 4th quartile (above 3.09, high-risk group) were 8-fold more likely to have advanced colorectal neoplasia than subjects with miRFec scores in the 1st quartile (below 2.14, low-risk group). Subjects in the low-risk group had a positive predictive value below 30% for detection of advanced colorectal neoplasia. When we used a 50% specificity cut-off value, the miRFec algorithm identified 97% of patients with CRC and would allow 264 subjects (34.4%) to avoid colonoscopy examination. CONCLUSIONS: An algorithm based on fecal levels of 2 miRNAs and hemoglobin, patient age and sex (miRFec) differentiated patients with CRC from those with non-advanced adenomas or normal colonoscopy with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 90% and avoided 34% of colonoscopies. Inclusion of this algorithm in FIT-based CRC screening programs could increase their effectiveness and efficiency.