Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.

BACKGROUND: Cancer surveillance data are essential to help understand where gaps exist and progress is being made in cancer control. We sought to summarize the expected impact of cancer in Canada in 2024, with projections of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer by sex and province or territory for all ages combined. METHODS: We obtained data on new cancer cases (i.e., incidence, 1984-2019) and deaths from cancer (i.e., mortality, 1984-2020) from the Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, respectively. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2024 for 23 types of cancer, overall, by sex, and by province or territory. We calculated age-standardized rates using data from the 2011 Canadian standard population. RESULTS: In 2024, the number of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer are expected to reach 247 100 and 88 100, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) are projected to decrease slightly from previous years for both males and females, with higher rates among males (ASIR 562.2 per 100 000 and ASMR 209.6 per 100 000 among males; ASIR 495.9 per 100 000 and ASMR 152.8 per 100 000 among females). The ASIRs and ASMRs of several common cancers are projected to continue to decrease (i.e., lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer), while those of several others are projected to increase (i.e., liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer, kidney cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma). INTERPRETATION: Although the overall incidence of cancer and associated mortality are declining, new cases and deaths in Canada are expected to increase in 2024, largely because of the growing and aging population. Efforts in prevention, screening, and treatment have reduced the impact of some cancers, but these short-term projections highlight the potential effect of cancer on people and health care systems in Canada.

Stage Shifting by Modifying the Determinants of Breast Cancer Stage at Diagnosis: A Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in Canadian women; nearly 25% of women diagnosed with cancer have breast cancer. The early detection of breast cancer is a major challenge because tumours often grow without causing symptom. The diagnosis of breast cancer at an early stage (stages I and II) improves survival outcomes because treatments are more effective and better tolerated. To better inform the prevention of and screening for breast cancer, simulations using modifiable rather than non-modifiable risk factors may be helpful in shifting the stage at diagnosis downward. METHODS: Breast cancer stages were simulated using the data distributions from Alberta's Tomorrow Project participants who developed breast cancer. Using multivariable partial proportional odds regression models, modifiable lifestyle factors associated with the stage of cancer at diagnosis were evaluated. The proportions or mean levels of these lifestyle factors in the simulated population were systematically changed, then multiplied by their corresponding estimated odds ratios from the real data example. The effects of these changes were evaluated singly as well as cumulatively. RESULTS: Increasing total dietary protein (g/day) intake was the single most important lifestyle factor in shifting the breast cancer stage downwards followed by decreasing total dietary energy intake (kcal/day). Increasing the proportion of women who spend time in the sun between 11 am and 4 pm in the summer months, who have had a mammogram, who have been pregnant or reducing the proportion who are in stressful situations had much smaller effects. The percentage of Stage I diagnoses could be increased by approximately 12% with small modifications of these lifestyle factors. CONCLUSION: Shifting the breast cancer stage at diagnosis of a population may be achieved through changes to lifestyle factors. This proof of principle study that evaluated multiple factors associated with the stage at diagnosis in a population can be expanded to other cancers as well, providing opportunities for cancer prevention programs to target specific factors and identify populations at higher risk.

Use of chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, and ovarian cancer: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on international variation in chemotherapy use, despite it being a key treatment type for some patients with cancer. Here, we aimed to examine the presence and size of such variation. METHODS: This population-based study used data from Norway, the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), eight Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan), and two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria). Patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with cancer in eight different sites (oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer), with no other primary cancer diagnosis occurring from within the 5 years before to 1 year after the index cancer diagnosis or during the study period were included in the study. We examined variation in chemotherapy use from 31 days before to 365 days after diagnosis and time to its initiation, alongside related variation in patient group differences. Information was obtained from cancer registry records linked to clinical or patient management system data or hospital administration data. Random-effects meta-analyses quantified interjurisdictional variation using 95% prediction intervals (95% PIs). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, of 893 461 patients with a new diagnosis of one of the studied cancers, 111 569 (12·5%) did not meet the inclusion criteria, and 781 892 were included in the analysis. There was large interjurisdictional variation in chemotherapy use for all studied cancers, with wide 95% PIs: 47·5 to 81·2 (pooled estimate 66·4%) for ovarian cancer, 34·9 to 59·8 (47·2%) for oesophageal cancer, 22·3 to 62·3 (40·8%) for rectal cancer, 25·7 to 55·5 (39·6%) for stomach cancer, 17·2 to 56·3 (34·1%) for pancreatic cancer, 17·9 to 49·0 (31·4%) for lung cancer, 18·6 to 43·8 (29·7%) for colon cancer, and 3·5 to 50·7 (16·1%) for liver cancer. For patients with stage 3 colon cancer, the interjurisdictional variation was greater than that for all patients with colon cancer (95% PI 38·5 to 78·4; 60·1%). Patients aged 85-99 years had 20-times lower odds of chemotherapy use than those aged 65-74 years, with very large interjurisdictional variation in this age difference (odds ratio 0·05; 95% PI 0·01 to 0·19). There was large variation in median time to first chemotherapy (from diagnosis date) by cancer site, with substantial interjurisdictional variation, particularly for rectal cancer (95% PI -15·5 to 193·9 days; pooled estimate 89·2 days). Patients aged 85-99 years had slightly shorter median time to first chemotherapy compared with those aged 65-74 years, consistently between jurisdictions (-3·7 days, 95% PI -7·6 to 0·1). INTERPRETATION: Large variation in use and time to chemotherapy initiation were observed between the participating jurisdictions, alongside large and variable age group differences in chemotherapy use. To guide efforts to improve patient outcomes, the underlying reasons for these patterns need to be established. FUNDING: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, The Cancer Society of New Zealand, National Health Service England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, DG Health and Social Care Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Public Health Wales NHS Trust).

Use of radiotherapy in patients with oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, and ovarian cancer: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on variation in radiotherapy use in different countries, although it is a key treatment modality for some patients with cancer. Here we aimed to examine such variation. METHODS: This population-based study used data from Norway, the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), nine Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan), and two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria). Patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with cancer in eight different sites (oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer), with no other primary cancer diagnosis occurring within the 5 years before to 1 year after the index cancer diagnosis or during the study period were included in the study. We examined variation in radiotherapy use from 31 days before to 365 days after diagnosis and time to its initiation, alongside related variation in patient group differences. Information was obtained from cancer registry records linked to clinical or patient management system data, or hospital administration data. Random-effects meta-analyses quantified interjurisdictional variation using 95% prediction intervals (95% PIs). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, of 902 312 patients with a new diagnosis of one of the studied cancers, 115 357 (12·8%) did not meet inclusion criteria, and 786,955 were included in the analysis. There was large interjurisdictional variation in radiotherapy use, with wide 95% PIs: 17·8 to 82·4 (pooled estimate 50·2%) for oesophageal cancer, 35·5 to 55·2 (45·2%) for rectal cancer, 28·6 to 54·0 (40·6%) for lung cancer, and 4·6 to 53·6 (19·0%) for stomach cancer. For patients with stage 2-3 rectal cancer, interjurisdictional variation was greater than that for all patients with rectal cancer (95% PI 37·0 to 84·6; pooled estimate 64·2%). Radiotherapy use was infrequent but variable in patients with pancreatic (95% PI 1·7 to 16·5%), liver (1·8 to 11·2%), colon (1·6 to 5·0%), and ovarian (0·8 to 7·6%) cancer. Patients aged 85-99 years had three-times lower odds of radiotherapy use than those aged 65-74 years, with substantial interjurisdictional variation in this age difference (odds ratio [OR] 0·38; 95% PI 0·20-0·73). Women had slightly lower odds of radiotherapy use than men (OR 0·88, 95% PI 0·77-1·01). There was large variation in median time to first radiotherapy (from diagnosis date) by cancer site, with substantial interjurisdictional variation (eg, oesophageal 95% PI 11·3 days to 112·8 days; pooled estimate 62·0 days; rectal 95% PI 34·7 days to 77·3 days; pooled estimate 56·0 days). Older patients had shorter median time to radiotherapy with appreciable interjurisdictional variation (-9·5 days in patients aged 85-99 years vs 65-74 years, 95% PI -26·4 to 7·4). INTERPRETATION: Large interjurisdictional variation in both use and time to radiotherapy initiation were observed, alongside large and variable age differences. To guide efforts to improve patient outcomes, underlying reasons for these differences need to be established. FUNDING: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, The Cancer Society of New Zealand, National Health Service England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, DG Health and Social Care Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Public Health Wales NHS Trust).

Revisiting the Calculation for a Novel Measure of Average Lifespan Shortened: Real-World Examples From Cervical and Ovarian Cancers in Alberta, Canada, 2000 - 2020.

In this technical note, we primarily demonstrate the computation of confidence limits for a novel measure of average lifespan shortened (ALSS). We identified women who had died from cervical and ovarian cancer between 2000 and 2020 from the Alberta cancer registry. Years of life lost (YLL) was calculated using the national life tables of Canada. We estimated the ALSS as a ratio of YLL in relation to the expected lifespan. We computed the confidence limits of the measure using various approaches, including the normal distribution, gamma distribution, and bootstrap method. The new ALSS measure shows a modest gain in lifespan of women, particularly women with ovarian cancer, over the study period.

Health-Related and Psychosocial Factors Associated with Prostate Cancer Stage at Diagnosis among Males Participating in Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

Prostate cancer (PCa) stage at diagnosis is an important predictor of cancer prognosis. In Canada, over one-quarter of males are diagnosed with advanced-stage PCa. Studies have identified several factors associated with PCa stage at diagnosis; however, evidence from Canada is limited. This study aimed to examine associations between sociodemographic characteristics, health history, health practices, and psychosocial factors and PCa stage at diagnosis among males participating in Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP), a prospective cohort in Alberta, Canada. The study included males aged 35-69 years who developed PCa until January 2018. Factors associated with PCa stage at diagnosis were examined using partial proportional odds (PPO) ordinal regression models. A total of 410 males were diagnosed with PCa over the study period. A higher number of lifetime prostate-specific antigen tests were associated with earlier-stage PCa (OR 0.91, p = 0.02, 95% CI 0.83-0.99), while higher abdominal circumference (OR 1.02, p = 0.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.03), lower social support (OR 2.34, p < 0.01, 95% CI 1.31-4.17), and having children (OR 2.67, p < 0.01, 95% CI 1.38-5.16) were associated with later-stage disease. This study identified factors previously found in the literature as well as novel factors associated with PCa stage at diagnosis, which can help inform targets for cancer prevention programs to improve PCa prognosis.

Development and External Validation of Partial Proportional Odds Risk Prediction Models for Cancer Stage at Diagnosis among Males and Females in Canada.

Risk prediction models for cancer stage at diagnosis may identify individuals at higher risk of late-stage cancer diagnoses. Partial proportional odds risk prediction models for cancer stage at diagnosis for males and females were developed using data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP). Prediction models were validated on the British Columbia Generations Project (BCGP) cohort using discrimination and calibration measures. Among ATP males, older age at diagnosis was associated with an earlier stage at diagnosis, while full- or part-time employment, prostate-specific antigen testing, and former/current smoking were associated with a later stage at diagnosis. Among ATP females, mammogram and sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy were associated with an earlier stage at diagnosis, while older age at diagnosis, number of pregnancies, and hysterectomy were associated with a later stage at diagnosis. On external validation, discrimination results were poor for both males and females while calibration results indicated that the models did not over- or under-fit to derivation data or over- or under-predict risk. Multiple factors associated with cancer stage at diagnosis were identified among ATP participants. While the prediction model calibration was acceptable, discrimination was poor when applied to BCGP data. Updating our models with additional predictors may help improve predictive performance.

Long-term Mortality in Individuals Diagnosed With Cancer During Pregnancy or Postpartum.

Importance: Outcomes among patients with pregnancy-associated cancers (diagnosed during pregnancy or 1-year postpartum) other than breast cancer have received relatively little research attention. High-quality data from additional cancer sites are needed to inform the care of this unique group of patients. Objective: To assess mortality and survival in premenopausal women with pregnancy-associated cancers, with a particular focus on cancers other than those of the breast. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based retrospective cohort study included premenopausal women (aged 18-50 years) living in 3 Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario) diagnosed with cancer between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2016, with follow-up until December 31, 2017, or date of death. Data analysis occurred in 2021 and 2022. Exposures: Participants were categorized as being diagnosed with cancer during pregnancy (from conception to delivery), during the postpartum period (up to 1 year after delivery), or during a time that was remote from pregnancy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were overall survival at 1 and 5 years and time from diagnosis to death due to any cause. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate mortality adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for age at cancer diagnosis, cancer stage, cancer site, and days from diagnosis to first treatment. Meta-analysis was used to pool results across all 3 provinces. Results: During the study period there were 1014, 3074, and 20 219 participants diagnosed with cancer during pregnancy, postpartum, and periods remote from pregnancy, respectively. One-year survival was similar across the 3 groups, but 5-year survival was lower among those diagnosed with cancer during pregnancy or postpartum. Overall, there was a greater risk of death due to pregnancy-associated cancer among those diagnosed during pregnancy (aHR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.51-2.13) and postpartum (aHR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.33-1.67); however, these results varied across cancer sites. Increased hazard of mortality was observed for breast (aHR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.58-2.56), ovarian (aHR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.12-6.03), and stomach (aHR, 10.37; 95% CI, 3.56-30.24) cancers diagnosed during pregnancy, and brain (aHR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.28-5.90), breast (aHR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.32-1.95), and melanoma (aHR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.02-3.30) cancers diagnosed postpartum. Conclusions and Relevance: This population-based cohort study found that pregnancy-associated cancers had increased overall 5-year mortality, though not all cancer sites presented the same risk.

Average lifespan shortened due to cancer in selected countries of North America, Europe, Asia and Oceania, 2006 and 2016.

PURPOSE: We applied a novel measure of average lifespan shortened (ALSS) to examine changes in lifespan among patients who died of cancer over a 10-year period from 2006 to 2016 in 20 selected high-income countries from North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. METHODS: We retrieved cancer deaths in each country from the World Health Organization mortality database. We calculated ALSS as a ratio of years of life lost to the expected lifespan among patients who died from cancer. RESULTS: Between 2006 and 2016, we observed modest changes in ALSS for overall cancer deaths over the study in many countries. The changes in the ALSS over time due to any cancer ranged between -1.7 and +0.4 percentage points (pps) among men and between -1.9 and +0.6 pps among women. Across countries, overall cancer deaths led to an average loss between 16% and 22% of their lifespan in men, and between 18% and 24% in women. Across cancer sites, patients who died of central nervous system cancers, for instance, lost a large proportion of their lifespan. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we demonstrated the use of ALSS across selected high-income countries, which enables population-level assessment of premature mortality among cancer patients over time.

Trends in the Incidence of Cancer Among Adolescent and Young Adults in Alberta, 1983-2017: A Population-Based Study Using Cancer Registry Data.

Purpose: To describe the cancer incidence burden and trends among adolescent and young adults (AYAs) in Alberta, Canada over a 35-year period. Methods: We obtained data from the Alberta Cancer Registry on all first primary cancers, excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, diagnosed at ages 15-39 years among residents in Alberta from 1983 to 2017. Cancers were classified by using Barr's AYA cancer classification system. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in incidence rates were calculated. Statistically significant changes in the AAPC during the study period were assessed using Joinpoint regression. Results: Overall, 23,652 incident cases of AYA cancer were diagnosed in Alberta. Females accounted for ∼60% of the diagnoses. AYA cancer increased significantly over the study period overall (AAPC: 0.5%; 95%CI: 0.3%-0.7%), for each sex (AAPCmale: 0.7%; 95%CI: 0.4%-0.9%; AAPCfemale: 0.4%; 95%CI: 0.2%-0.6%), and among male and female 20-39 year-olds. Although statistically significant increases were observed in 11 out of 29 cancer sites for at least a portion of the study period, with significant AAPCs ranging from 0.8% (95%CI: 0.01%-1.5%) to 6.6% (95%CI: 4.6%-8.5%), the main driver was thyroid cancer (AAPC: 3.7%; 95%CI: 3.2%-4.2%). Statistically significant decreases were observed for six cancer sites, with AAPCs ranging from -6.4% (95%CI: -8.7% to -4.1%) to -1.1% (95%CI: -1.8% to -0.5%). Conclusions: There is a growing cancer burden among AYAs in Alberta, which is driven primarily by thyroid cancer and early-onset cancers in males. These results highlight the need for etiological studies and tertiary strategies to prevent and mitigate morbidity and mortality in the AYA population.

Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2022.

BACKGROUND: Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected burden of cancer in Canada in 2022. METHODS: We obtained data on new cancer incidence from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984-1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2018). Mortality data (1984-2019) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2022 for 22 cancer types by sex and province or territory. Rates were age standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population. RESULTS: An estimated 233 900 new cancer cases and 85 100 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2022. We expect the most commonly diagnosed cancers to be lung overall (30 000), breast in females (28 600) and prostate in males (24 600). We also expect lung cancer to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 24.3% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.0%), pancreatic (6.7%) and breast cancers (6.5%). Incidence and mortality rates are generally expected to be higher in the eastern provinces of Canada than the western provinces. INTERPRETATION: Although overall cancer rates are declining, the number of cases and deaths continues to climb, owing to population growth and the aging population. The projected high burden of lung cancer indicates a need for increased tobacco control and improvements in early detection and treatment. Success in breast and colorectal cancer screening and treatment likely account for the continued decline in their burden. The limited progress in early detection and new treatments for pancreatic cancer explains why it is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada.

Average lifespan shortened due to Hodgkin lymphoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, multiple myeloma, and leukemia in Japan, 1990-2015.

We examined whether there were gains in lifespan among patients who died from hematological cancers in Japan between 1990 and 2015 using the novel average lifespan shortened (ALSS) measure. We obtained mortality data from the World Health Organization mortality database. Years of life lost (YLL) was calculated using Japanese life tables. ALSS measure was calculated as a ratio of YLL to the expected lifespan. The ALSS results showed that the lifespan of patients who died from hematological cancers has improved over time. For instance, women who died of leukemia in 1990 lost about 34% of their lifespan; conversely, those who died in 2015 lost about 20%. Likewise, men dying from non-Hodgkin lymphoma lost about 22% of their lifespan in 1990, whereas men lost about 14% in 2015. In summary, the new ALSS measure shows prolonged lifespans among patients who died from hematological cancers in Japan over the study period.

Health-Related and Behavioral Factors Associated With Lung Cancer Stage at Diagnosis: Observations From Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in Canada, with stage at diagnosis among the top predictors of lung cancer survival. Identifying factors associated with stage at diagnosis can help reduce lung cancer morbidity and mortality. This study used data from a prospective cohort study of adults living in Alberta, Canada to examine factors associated with lung cancer stage at diagnosis. METHODS: This cohort study used data from adults aged 35-69 years enrolled in Alberta's Tomorrow Project. Partial Proportional Odds models were used to examine associations between sociodemographic characteristics and health-related factors and subsequent lung cancer stage at diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 221 participants (88 males and 133 females) developed lung cancer over the study period. Nearly half (48.0%) of lung cancers were diagnosed at a late stage (stage IV), whereas 30.8 % and 21.3% were diagnosed at stage I/II and III, respectively. History of sunburn in the past year was protective against late-stage lung cancer diagnosis (odds ratio (OR) .40, P=.005). In males, a higher number of lifetime prostate specific antigen tests was associated with reduced odds of late-stage lung cancer diagnosis (odds ratio .66, P=.02). Total recreational physical activity was associated with increased odds of late-stage lung cancer diagnosis (OR 1.08, P=.01). DISCUSSION: Lung cancer stage at diagnosis remains a crucial determinant of prognosis. This study identified important factors associated with lung cancer stage at diagnosis. Study findings can inform targeted cancer prevention initiatives towards improving early detection of lung cancer and lung cancer survival.

Pre-diagnosis lifestyle, health history and psychosocial factors associated with stage at breast cancer diagnosis - Potential targets to shift stage earlier.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of breast cancer improves survival, so identifying factors associated with stage at diagnosis may help formulate cancer prevention messages tailored for higher risk women. The goal of this study was to evaluate associations between multiple potential risk factors, including novel ones, measured before a breast cancer diagnosis and stage at diagnosis in women from Alberta, Canada. METHODS: Women enrolled in Alberta's Tomorrow Project completed health and lifestyle questionnaires on average 7 years before their breast cancer diagnosis. The association of previously identified and novel predictors with stage (I, II and III + IV) at diagnosis were simultaneously evaluated in partial proportional odds ordinal (PPO) regression models. RESULTS: The 492 women in this study were predominantly diagnosed in Stage 1 (51.4%), had college or university education (75.4%), were married or had a partner (74.6%), had been pregnant (90.2%), had taken birth control pills for any reason (86.8%), and had an average body mass index of 26.6. Most had at least one mammogram (83%) with five mammograms the average number. Nearly all reported previously having a breast health examination from a medical practitioner (92.5%). Statistically significant factors identified in the PPO model included protective ones (older age at diagnosis, high household income, parity, smoking, spending time in the sun during high ultraviolet times, having a mammogram and high daily protein intake) and ones that increased risk of later stage at diagnosis (a comorbidity, current stressful situations and high daily caloric intake). CONCLUSION: Shifting breast cancer stage at diagnosis downwards may potentially be achieved through cancer prevention programs that target higher risk groups such as women with co-morbidities, non-smokers and younger women who may be eligible for breast cancer screening.

A way to explore the existence of "immortals" in cancer registry data - An illustration using data from ICBP SURVMARK-2.

BACKGROUND: Accurately recorded vital status of individuals is essential when estimating cancer patient survival. When deaths are ascertained by linkage with vital statistics registers, some may be missed, and such individuals will wrongly appear to be long-term survivors, and survival will be overestimated. Interval-specific relative survival that levels off above one indicates that the survival among the cancer patients is better than expected, which could be due to the presence of immortals. METHODS: We included colon cancer cases diagnosed in 1995-1999 within the 19 jurisdictions in seven countries participating in ICBP SURVMARK-2, with follow-up information available until end-2015. Interval-specific relative survival was estimated for each year following diagnosis, by country and age group at diagnosis. RESULTS: The interval-specific relative survival levels off at 1 for all countries and age groups, with two exceptions: for the age group diagnosed at age 75 years and above in Ireland, and, to a lesser extent, in New Zealand. CONCLUSION: Overall, a subset of immortals are not apparent in the early years within the ICBP SURVMARK-2 study, except for possibly in Ireland. We suggest this approach as one strategy of exploring the existence of immortals, and to be part of routine checks of cancer registry data.

Predictors of CRC Stage at Diagnosis among Male and Female Adults Participating in a Prospective Cohort Study: Findings from Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Canada. CRC screening and other factors associated with early-stage disease can improve CRC treatment efficacy and survival. This study examined factors associated with CRC stage at diagnosis among male and female adults using data from a large prospective cohort study in Alberta, Canada. Baseline data were obtained from healthy adults aged 35-69 years participating in Alberta's Tomorrow Project. Factors associated with CRC stage at diagnosis were evaluated using Partial Proportional Odds models. Analyses were stratified to examine sex-specific associations. A total of 267 participants (128 males and 139 females) developed CRC over the study period. Among participants, 43.0% of males and 43.2% of females were diagnosed with late-stage CRC. Social support, having children, and caffeine intake were predictors of CRC stage at diagnosis among males, while family history of CRC, pregnancy, hysterectomy, menopausal hormone therapy, lifetime number of Pap tests, and household physical activity were predictive of CRC stage at diagnosis among females. These findings highlight the importance of sex differences in susceptibility to advanced CRC diagnosis and can help inform targets for cancer prevention programs to effectively reduce advanced CRC and thus improve survival.

Average lifespan shortened due to breast cancer in Australia, 1990-2015.

BACKGROUND: This short report aims to investigate changes in lifespan of Australian women with breast cancer using the novel average lifespan shortened (ALSS) measure METHODS: We obtained the mortality data of Australian women with breast cancer from the World Health Organization mortality database for the 1990-2015 period. We calculated the age-standardized rate (ASR) according to the World Standard Population. We estimated the ALSS as a ratio of years of life lost in relation to the expected lifespan to examine changes in lifespan of Australian women with breast cancer over the study period. RESULTS: Over a 25-year period, the ASR of breast cancer deaths decreased from 20.5 to 12.6 deaths per 100,000 women. We observed a decline in ALSS values from 24.0% of their lifespan in 1990 to 22.0% in 2015. CONCLUSION: The novel ALSS measure indicates an improvement of two percentage points in the lifespan of Australian women with breast cancer over the study.

Incidence of Pregnancy-Associated Cancer in Two Canadian Provinces: A Population-Based Study.

Pregnancy-associated cancer-that is diagnosed in pregnancy or within 365 days after delivery-is increasingly common as cancer therapy evolves and survivorship increases. This study assessed the incidence and temporal trends of pregnancy-associated cancer in Alberta and Ontario-together accounting for 50% of Canada's entire population. Linked data from the two provincial cancer registries and health administrative data were used to ascertain new diagnoses of cancer, livebirths, stillbirths and induced abortions among women aged 18-50 years, from 2003 to 2015. The annual crude incidence rate (IR) was calculated as the number of women with a pregnancy-associated cancer per 100,000 deliveries. A nonparametric test for trend assessed for any temporal trends. In Alberta, the crude IR of pregnancy-associated cancer was 156.2 per 100,000 deliveries (95% CI 145.8-166.7), and in Ontario, the IR was 149.4 per 100,000 deliveries (95% CI 143.3-155.4). While no statistically significant temporal trend in the IR of pregnancy-associated cancer was seen in Alberta, there was a rise in Ontario (p = 0.01). Pregnancy-associated cancer is common enough to warrant more detailed research on maternal, pregnancy and child outcomes, especially as cancer therapies continue to evolve.

Hospital-based acute care in the last 30 days of life among patients with chronic disease that received early, late or no specialist palliative care: a retrospective cohort study of eight chronic disease groups.

OBJECTIVE: For eight chronic diseases, evaluate the association of specialist palliative care (PC) exposure and timing with hospital-based acute care in the last 30 days of life. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using administrative data. SETTING: Alberta, Canada between 2007 and 2016. PARTICIPANTS: 47 169 adults deceased from: (1) cancer, (2) heart disease, (3) dementia, (4) stroke, (5) chronic lower respiratory disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)), (6) liver disease, (7) neurodegenerative disease and (8) renovascular disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The proportion of decedents who experienced high hospital-based acute care in the last 30 days of life, indicated by ≥two emergency department (ED) visit, ≥two hospital admissions,≥14 days of hospitalisation, any intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or death in hospital. Relative risk (RR) and risk difference (RD) of hospital-based acute care given early specialist PC exposure (≥90 days before death), adjusted for patient characteristics. RESULTS: In an analysis of all decedents, early specialist PC exposure was associated with a 32% reduction in risk of any hospital-based acute care as compared with those with no PC exposure (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.71; RD 0.16, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.17). The association was strongest in cancer-specific analyses (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.55; RD 0.31, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.33) and renal disease-specific analyses (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.84; RD 0.22, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.34), but a~25% risk reduction was observed for each of heart disease, COPD, neurodegenerative diseases and stroke. Early specialist PC exposure was associated with reducing risk of four out of five individual indicators of high hospital-based acute care in the last 30 days of life, including ≥two ED visit,≥two hospital admission, any ICU admission and death in hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Early specialist PC exposure reduced the risk of hospital-based acute care in the last 30 days of life for all chronic disease groups except dementia.

International trends in oesophageal cancer survival by histological subtype between 1995 and 2014.

INTRODUCTION: Survival from oesophageal cancer remains poor, even across high-income countries. Ongoing changes in the epidemiology of the disease highlight the need for survival assessments by its two main histological subtypes, adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). METHODS: The ICBP SURVMARK-2 project, a platform for international comparisons of cancer survival, collected cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995 to 2014, followed until 31st December 2015, from cancer registries covering seven participating countries with similar access to healthcare (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK). 1-year and 3-year age-standardised net survival alongside incidence rates were calculated by country, subtype, sex, age group and period of diagnosis. RESULTS: 111 894 cases of AC and 73 408 cases of SCC were included in the analysis. Marked improvements in survival were observed over the 20-year period in each country, particularly for AC, younger age groups and 1 year after diagnosis. Survival was consistently higher for both subtypes in Australia and Ireland followed by Norway, Denmark, New Zealand, the UK and Canada. During 2010 to 2014, survival was higher for AC compared with SCC, with 1-year survival ranging from 46.9% (Canada) to 54.4% (Ireland) for AC and 39.6% (Denmark) to 53.1% (Australia) for SCC. CONCLUSION: Marked improvements in both oesophageal AC and SCC survival suggest advances in treatment. Less marked improvements 3 years after diagnosis, among older age groups and patients with SCC, highlight the need for further advances in early detection and treatment of oesophageal cancer alongside primary prevention to reduce the overall burden from the disease.