Prevalence and trends in persistent symptoms following COVID-19 in Japan: A nationwide cross-sectional survey.

INTRODUCTION: Even during the endemic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of persistent symptoms on patients and healthcare systems remains significant. Thus, a more comprehensive understanding of these symptoms is essential. METHODS: Using data from the Japan Society and New Tobacco Internet Survey conducted in February 2023, this cross-sectional study investigated the prevalence of, and changes in, persistent COVID-19 symptoms. RESULTS: In total, 21,108 individuals responded to the survey. Of these, 29.1 % (6143) had a history of COVID-19. Our analysis found that arm/leg/joint pain (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.17; 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI]: 1.03-1.33), back pain (aOR: 1.13; 95 % CI: 1.01-1.27), chest pain (aOR: 1.53; 95 % CI: 1.20-1.96), malaise (aOR: 1.14; 95 % CI: 1.02-1.28), loss of taste (aOR: 2.55; 95 % CI: 1.75-3.72), loss of smell (aOR: 2.33; 95 % CI: 1.67-3.26), memory impairment (aOR: 1.27; 95 % CI: 1.04-1.56), and cough (aOR: 1.72; 95 % CI: 1.38-2.13) were independently associated with a history of COVID-19 contracted more than two months but less than six months previously. Further, back pain (aOR: 1.24; 95 % CI: 1.04-1.47) and loss of taste (aOR: 2.28; 95 % CI: 1.24-4.21) showed independent association with COVID-19 contracted more than 12 months previously. CONCLUSIONS: Various symptoms were independently associated with a history of COVID-19. While most patients tend to recover within a year after contracting COVID-19, certain symptoms, such as back pain and loss of taste, persist longer than a year, underscoring public health concerns and emphasizing the need for health care services to support patients suffering from persistent symptoms.

Post-COVID health-related quality of life and somatic symptoms: A national survey in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The characteristics and risk factors of post-COVID-19 condition affecting health-related quality of life and the symptom burden are unclear. METHODS: The present, cross-sectional study used the JASTIS (Japan Society and New Tobacco Internet Survey) database. EQ-5D-5L and Somatic Symptom Scale-8 were used to assess health-related quality of life and somatic symptoms, respectively. The participants were classified into a no-COVID-19, COVID-19 not requiring oxygen therapy or COVID-19 requiring oxygen therapy group. First, the entire cohort was analyzed. Then, sensitivity analysis was performed after excluding patients in the no-COVID-19 group with a history of close contact with individuals known to have the disease. FINDINGS: In total, 30130 individuals (mean age: 47.8; females: 51.2%), including 539 and 805 with COVID-19 requiring and not requiring oxygen therapy, respectively, participated. The analysis of the entire cohort as well as the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that individuals with a history of COVID-19 had significantly lower EQ-5D-5L and significantly higher SSS-8 scores than those with no COVID-19 history. The group requiring oxygen therapy was associated with significantly lower EQ-5D-5L and higher SSS-8 scores than the group not requiring oxygen therapy. Propensity-score matching confirmed these results. Furthermore, two or more COVID-19 vaccinations were independently associated with high EQ-5D-5L and low SSS-8 scores (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The participants with a COVID-19 history, especially those with severe disease, had a significantly higher somatic symptom burden. Analysis after adjusting for potential confounders found that their quality-of-life was also severely affected. Vaccination is crucial to addressing these symptoms, especially in high-risk patients.

Salt intake reduction using umami substance-incorporated food: a secondary analysis of NHANES 2017-2018 data.

OBJECTIVE: Excessive salt intake raises blood pressure and increases the risk of non-communicable diseases (NCD), such as CVD, chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer. Reducing the Na content of food is an important public health measure to control the NCD. This study quantifies the amount of salt reduced by using umami substances, i.e. glutamate, inosinate and guanylate, for adults in the USA. DESIGN: The secondary data analysis was performed using data of the US nationally representative cross-sectional dietary survey, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2017-2018. Per capita daily salt intake corresponding to the NHANES food groups was calculated in the four hypothetical scenarios of 0 %, 30 %, 60 % and 90 % market share of low-Na foods in the country. The salt reduction rates by using umami substances were estimated based on the previous study results. SETTING: The USA. PARTICIPANTS: 4139 individuals aged 20 years and older in the USA. RESULTS: Replacing salt with umami substances could help the US adults reduce salt intake by 7·31-13·53 % (7·50-13·61 % for women and 7·18-13·53 % for men), which is equivalent to 0·61-1·13 g/d (0·54-0·98 g/d for women and 0·69-1·30 g/d for men) without compromising the taste. Approximately, 21·21-26·04 % of the US adults could keep their salt intake below 5 g/d, the WHO's recommendation in the scenario where there is no low-Na product on the market. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides essential information that the use of umami substances as a substitute for salt may help reduce the US adults' salt intake.

Humoral immunity after second dose of BNT162b2 vaccine in Japanese communities: an observational cross-sectional study, Fukushima Vaccination Community Survey.

To reveal waning humoral immunity after second dose BNT162b2 vaccinations in a rural Japanese community and determine factors affecting antibody titers. We aimed to report Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody against the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S1) protein levels and neutralizing activity in a large scale community based cohort. METHODS: Participants in the observational cross-sectional study received a second dose of vaccination with BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) and were not previously infected with COVID-19. Questionnaire-collected data on sex, age, adverse vaccine reactions, and medical history was obtained. RESULTS: Data from 2496 participants revealed that older age groups reached a low antibody titer 90-120 days after the second vaccination. Neutralizing activity decreased with age; 35 (13.3%) of those aged ≥ 80 years had neutralizing activity under the cut-off value. Neutralizing activity > 179 days from the second vaccination was 11.6% compared to that at < 60 days from the second vaccination. Significantly lower IgG antibody titers and neutralizing activity were associated with age, male sex, increased time from second vaccination, smoking, steroids, immunosuppression, and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Antibody titer decreased substantially over time. Susceptible populations, older people, men, smokers, steroid users, immunosuppression users, and people with three or more comorbidities may require a special protection strategy.

Projections of disability-adjusted life years for major diseases due to a change in vegetable intake in 2017-2040 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Low vegetable intake is one of the key dietary risk factors known to be associated with a range of health problems, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKDs). Using data from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017, this study aimed to forecast the impact of change in vegetable intake on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2017 and 2040 for three diseases. METHODS: We generated a three-component model of cause-specific DALYs, including changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors, the socio-demographic index and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to project future DALY rates for 2017-2040 using the data between 1990 and 2016. Data on Vegetable consumption and risk predictors, and DALY rate were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases Study in 2017. We also modelled three scenarios of better, moderate and worse cases to evaluate the impact of change in vegetable consumption on the DALY rates for three diseases (CVDs, cancer, and DKDs). RESULTS: Projected mean vegetable intake in the total population showed a decreasing trend through 2040 to 237.7 g/day. A significant difference between the reference scenario and the better case scenario was observed with un-overlapped 95% prediction intervals of DALY rates in females aged 20-49 years (- 8.0%) for CVDs, the total population for cancer (- 5.6%), and in males (- 8.2%) and females (- 13.7%) for DKDs. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis indicates that increased vegetable consumption would have a significant reduction in the burdens of CVDs, cancer and DKDs in Japan. By estimating the disease burden attributable to low vegetable intake under different scenarios of future vegetable consumption, our study can inform the design of targeted interventions for public health challenges.

Prediction of disability-adjusted life years for diseases due to low fruit intake in 2017-2040 in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: The current study aimed to predict disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate in Japan through 2040 with plausible future scenarios of fruit intake for neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKD). DESIGN: Data from National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017 were used. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model with four future scenarios. Reference scenario maintains the current trend. Best scenario assumes that the goal defined in Health Japan 21 is achieved in 2023 and is kept constant afterwards. Moderate scenario assumes that the goal is achieved in 2040. Constant scenario applies the same proportion of 2016 for the period between 2017 and 2040. SETTING: DALY rates in Japan were predicted for the period between 2017 and 2040. PARTICIPANTS: Population aged more than than 20 years old. RESULTS: In our reference forecast, the DALY rates in all-ages group were projected to be stable for CVD and continue increasing for neoplasms and DKD. Age group-specific DALY rates for these three disease groups were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Among men aged 20-49 years, DALY attributable to CVD differed substantially between the scenarios, implying that there is a significant potential for reducing the burden of CVD by increasing fruit intake at the population level. CONCLUSIONS: Our scenario analysis shows that higher fruit intake is associated with lower disease burden in Japan. Further research is required to assess which policies and interventions can be used to achieve an increase in fruit intake as modelled in the scenarios of the current study.

Forecasting disability-adjusted life years for chronic diseases: reference and alternative scenarios of salt intake for 2017-2040 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, a high-sodium diet is the most important dietary risk factor and is known to cause a range of health problems. This study aimed to forecast Japan's disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for chronic diseases that would be associated with high-sodium diet in different future scenarios of salt intake. We modelled DALY forecast and alternative future scenarios of salt intake for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic kidney diseases (CKDs), and stomach cancer (SC) from 2017 to 2040. METHODS: We developed a three-component model of disease-specific DALYs: a component on the changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors including salt intake; a component on the income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. Data on risk predictors were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To generate a reference forecast of disease-specific DALY rates for 2017-2040, we modelled the three diseases using the data for 1990-2016. Additionally, we generated better, moderate, and worse scenarios to evaluate the impact of change in salt intake on the DALY rate for the diseases. RESULTS: In our reference forecast, the DALY rates across all ages were predicted to be stable for CVDs, continuously increasing for CKDs, and continuously decreasing for SC. Meanwhile, the age group-specific DALY rates for these three diseases were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Except for the ≥70 age group, there were remarkable differences in DALY rates between scenarios, with the best scenario having the lowest DALY rates in 2040 for SC. This represents a wide scope of future trajectories by 2040 with a potential for tremendous decrease in SC burden. CONCLUSIONS: The gap between scenarios provides some quantification of the range of policy impacts on future trajectories of salt intake. Even though we do not yet know the policy mix used to achieve these scenarios, the result that there can be differences between scenarios means that policies today can have a significant impact on the future DALYs.

Effect and cost-effectiveness of national gastric cancer screening in Japan: a microsimulation modeling study.

BACKGROUND: A national endoscopic screening program for gastric cancer was rolled out in Japan in 2015. We used a microsimulation model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current screening guidelines and alternative screening strategies in Japan. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model that simulated a virtual population corresponding to the Japanese population in risk factor profile and life expectancy. We evaluated 15 endoscopic screening scenarios with various starting ages, stopping ages, and screening intervals. The primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Cost-effective screening strategies were determined using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY gained. One-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were done to explore model uncertainty. RESULTS: Using the threshold of $50,000 per QALY, a triennial screening program for individuals aged 50 to 75 years was the cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $45,665. Compared with no endoscopic screening, this strategy is predicted to prevent 63% of gastric cancer mortality and confer 27.2 QALYs gained per 1000 individuals over a lifetime period. Current screening guidelines were not on the cost-effectiveness efficient frontier. The results were robust on one-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: This modeling study suggests that the endoscopic screening program in Japan would be cost-effective when implemented between age 50 and 75 years, with the screening repeated every 3 years. These findings underscore the need for further evaluation of the current gastric cancer screening recommendations.

Cancer incidence attributable to tuberculosis in 2015: global, regional, and national estimates.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is associated with increased risk of cancer. However, the impact of tuberculosis on global cancer burden is unknown. METHODS: We performed random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions of studies reporting the association between tuberculosis and cancer risks by searching PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane library, and CINAHL from inception to 1 June 2019. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) of cancer incidence attributable to tuberculosis were calculated using relative risks from our meta-analyses and tuberculosis prevalence data from Global Health Data Exchange by age, sex, and country. The study has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42016050691). RESULTS: Fourty nine studies with 52,480 cancer cases met pre-specified inclusion criteria. Tuberculosis was associated with head and neck cancer (RR 2.64[95% CI 2.00-3.48]), hepatobiliary cancer (2.43[1.82-3.25]), Hodgkin's lymphoma (2.19[1.62-2.97]), lung cancer (1.69[1.46-1.95]), gastrointestinal cancer (1.62[1.26-2.08]), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (1.61[1.34-1.94]), pancreatic cancer (1.58[1.28-1.96]), leukaemia (1.55[1.25-1.93]), kidney and bladder cancer (1.54[1.21-1.97]), and ovarian cancer (1.43[1.04-1.97]). We estimated that 2.33%(1.14-3.81) or 381,035(187145-623,404) of global cancer incidences in 2015 were attributable to tuberculosis. The PAFs varied by Socio-demographic Index (SDI)-ranging from 1.28% (0.57-2.31%) in the high-SDI countries to 3.51% (1.84-5.42%) in the middle-SDI countries. Individually, China and India accounted for 47% of all tuberculosis-related cancer cases. CONCLUSIONS: Tuberculosis is associated with increased risk of cancer at ten sites. The burden of tuberculosis attributable cancer skewed towards lower resource countries. Research priorities are to better understand regional disparities and underlying mechanism linking tuberculosis and cancer development.

Limited alignment of publicly competitive disease funding with disease burden in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: The need to align investments in health research and development (R&D) with public health needs is one of the most important public health challenges in Japan. We examined the alignment of disease-specific publicly competitive R&D funding to the disease burden in the country. METHODS: We analyzed publicly available data on competitive public funding for health in 2015 and 2016 and compared it to disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) in 2016, which were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Their alignment was assessed as a percentage distribution among 22 GBD disease groups. Funding was allocated to the 22 disease groups based on natural language processing, using textual information such as project title and abstract for each research project, while considering for the frequency of information. RESULTS: Total publicly competitive funding in health R&D in 2015 and 2016 reached 344.1 billion JPY (about 3.0 billion USD) for 32,204 awarded projects. About 49.5% of the funding was classifiable for disease-specific projects. Five GDB disease groups were significantly and relatively well-funded compared to their contributions to Japan's DALY, including neglected tropical diseases and malaria (funding vs DALY = 1.7% vs 0.0%, p<0.01) and neoplasms (28.5% vs 19.2%, p<0.001). In contrast, four GDB disease groups were significantly under-funded, including cardiovascular diseases (8.0% vs 14.8%, p<0.001) and musculoskeletal disorders (1.0% vs 11.9%, p<0.001). These percentages do not include unclassifiable funding. CONCLUSIONS: While caution is necessary as this study was not able to consider public in-house funding and the methodological uncertainties could not be ruled out, the analysis may provide a snapshot of the limited alignment between publicly competitive disease-specific funding and the disease burden in the country. The results call for greater management over the allocation of scarce resources on health R&D. DALYs will serve as a crucial, but not the only, consideration in aligning Japan's research priorities with the public health needs. In addition, the algorithms for natural language processing used in this study require continued efforts to improve accuracy.

Effect of body-mass index on the risk of gastric cancer: A population-based cohort study in A Japanese population.

BACKGROUND: Body fatness and weight gain are considered probable causes of gastric cancer, specifically in the cardia region. However, limited evidence is available in Asia, where the burden of gastric cancer is high. The objective of this study was to determine an association between body-mass index (BMI) and gastric cancer risk using a large population prospective cohort. METHODS: 92,056 subjects enrolled in the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective Study who reported their height and weight were followed up until the end of 2013. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the risk for gastric cancer and its subsite based on baseline BMI. A subgroup analysis was conducted taking account of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection and atrophic gastritis status. RESULTS: 2,860 gastric cancer cases (2,047 men, 813 women), 307 proximal gastric cancer cases (244 men, 63 women), and 1967 distal gastric cancer cases (1,405 men, 562 women) were found during the follow-up period. Among men, baseline BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2 increased the risk of overall gastric cancer (hazards ratio (HR) 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.53). For both sexes, U-shaped increase in the risk was observed for proximal gastric cancer. Subgroup analysis showed a statistically significant association between the risk of proximal gastric cancer and BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2 among those who were atrophic gastritis positive, H. pylori antibody positive, and those who tested positive to either or both atrophic gastritis and H. pylori antibody. CONCLUSION: Our result suggests that gastric cancer risk increases for men with BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2.

Trends and projections of universal health coverage indicators in Ghana, 1995-2030: A national and subnational study.

Ghana has made significant stride towards universal health coverage (UHC) by implementing the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in 2003. This paper investigates the progress of UHC indicators in Ghana from 1995 to 2015 and makes future predictions up to 2030 to assess the probability of achieving UHC targets. National representative surveys of Ghana were used to assess health service coverage and financial risk protection. The analyses estimated the coverage of 13 prevention and four treatment service indicators at the national level and across wealth quintiles. In addition, we calculated catastrophic health payments and impoverishment to assess financial hardship and used a Bayesian regression model to estimate trends and future projections as well as the probabilities of achieving UHC targets by 2030. Wealth-based inequalities and regional disparities were also assessed. At the national level, 14 out of the 17 health service indicators are projected to reach the target of 80% coverage by 2030. Across wealth quintiles, inequalities were observed amongst most indicators with richer groups obtaining more coverage than their poorer counterparts. Subnational analysis revealed while all regions will achieve the 80% coverage target with high probabilities for the prevention services, the same cannot be applied to the treatment services. In 2015, the proportion of households that suffered catastrophic health payments and impoverishment at a threshold of 25% non-food expenditure were 1.9% (95%CrI: 0.9-3.5) and 0.4% (95%CrI: 0.2-0.8), respectively. These are projected to reduce to 0.4% (95% CrI: 0.1-1.3) and 0.2% (0.0-0.5) respectively by 2030. Inequality measures and subnational assessment revealed that catastrophic expenditure experienced by wealth quintiles and regions are not equal. Significant improvements were seen in both health service coverage and financial risk protection over the years. However, inequalities across wealth quintiles and regions continue to be cause of concerns. Further efforts are needed to narrow these gaps.

Dietary consumption of antioxidant vitamins and subsequent lung cancer risk: The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study.

While many epidemiological studies have studied the association between lung cancer risk and fruits and vegetable consumption (the major sources of antioxidant vitamins), only a few have investigated the direct association with antioxidants in consideration of cancer subtypes and smoking status. Here, we examined the association between consumption of antioxidant vitamins and lung cancer risk in one of the largest prospective cohort studies in Japan. We investigated the association of dietary antioxidant vitamins intake, namely retinol, vitamin C, vitamin E, α-carotene, and ß-carotene and subsequent incidence of lung cancer among 38,207 men and 41,498 women in the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study. Cox proportional hazard regression was performed with adjustment for potential confounders and by strata of cancer subtypes and smoking status. Antioxidant and other dietary intakes were assessed using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). During 1,233,096 person-years of follow-up between 1995 and 2013, a total of 1,690 lung cancer cases were newly diagnosed. In a multivariate regression model, while higher retinol intake was positively associated with overall lung cancer risk in men (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.05-1.51; ptrend = 0.003), the estimates were more evident with small cell carcinoma (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.13-3.24; ptrend < 0.001). Null associations were observed for other antioxidant vitamins. Our prospective study suggests that higher consumption of retinol may be associated with an increased risk of lung cancer in men, especially with small cell carcinoma, although confirmation is required.

Trends in, and projections of, indicators of universal health coverage in Bangladesh, 1995-2030: a Bayesian analysis of population-based household data.

BACKGROUND: Many countries are implementing health system reforms to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) by 2030. To understand the progress towards UHC in Bangladesh, we estimated trends in indicators of the health service and of financial risk protection. We also estimated the probability of Bangladesh's achieving of UHC targets of 80% essential health-service coverage and 100% financial risk protection by 2030. METHODS: We estimated the coverage of UHC indicators-13 prevention indicators and four treatment indicators-from 19 nationally representative population-based household surveys done in Bangladesh from Jan 1, 1991, to Dec 31, 2014. We used a Bayesian regression model to estimate the trend and to predict the coverage of UHC indicators along with the probabilities of achieving UHC targets of 80% coverage of health services and 100% coverage of financial risk protection from catastrophic and impoverishing health payments by 2030. We used the concentration index and relative index of inequality to assess wealth-based inequality in UHC indicators. FINDINGS: If the current trends remain unchanged, we estimated that coverage of childhood vaccinations, improved water, oral rehydration treatment, satisfaction with family planning, and non-use of tobacco will achieve the 80% target by 2030. However, coverage of four antenatal care visits, facility-based delivery, skilled birth attendance, postnatal checkups, care seeking for pneumonia, exclusive breastfeeding, non-overweight, and adequate sanitation were not projected to achieve the target. Quintile-specific projections showed wide wealth-based inequality in access to antenatal care, postnatal care, delivery care, adequate sanitation, and care seeking for pneumonia, and this inequality was projected to continue for all indicators. The incidence of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment were projected to increase from 17% and 4%, respectively, in 2015, to 20% and 9%, respectively, by 2030. Inequality analysis suggested that wealthiest households would disproportionately face more financial catastrophe than the most disadvantaged households. INTERPRETATION: Despite progress, Bangladesh will not achieve the 2030 UHC targets unless the country scales up interventions related to maternal and child health services, and reforms health financing systems to avoid high dependency on out-of-pocket payments. The introduction of a national health insurance system, increased public funding for health care, and expansion of community-based clinics in rural areas could help to move the country towards UHC. FUNDING: Japan Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare.

Excess mortality due to indirect health effects of the 2011 triple disaster in Fukushima, Japan: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the indirect health impacts of disasters is limited. We assessed the excess mortality risk associated with the indirect health impacts of the 2011 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster) in Fukushima, Japan. METHODS: The mortality rates in Soma and Minamisoma cities in Fukushima from 2006 to 2015 were calculated using vital statistics and resident registrations. We investigated the excess mortality risk, defined as the increased mortality risk between postdisaster and predisaster after excluding direct deaths attributed to the physical force of the disaster. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality after adjusting for city, age and year. RESULTS: There were 6163 and 6125 predisaster and postdisaster deaths, respectively. The postdisaster mortality risk was significantly higher in the first month following the disaster (March 2011) than in the same month during the predisaster period (March 2006-2010). RRs among men and women were 2.64 (95% CI 2.16 to 3.24) and 2.46 (95% CI 1.99 to 3.03), respectively, demonstrating excess mortality risk due to the indirect health effects of the disaster. Age-specific subgroup analyses revealed a significantly higher mortality risk in women aged ≥85 years in the third month of the disaster compared with predisaster baseline, with an RR (95% CI) of 1.73 (1.23 to 2.44). CONCLUSIONS: Indirect health impacts are most severe in the first month of the disaster. Early public health support, especially for the elderly, can be an important factor for reducing the indirect health effects of a disaster.

Population health and regional variations of disease burden in Japan, 1990-2015: a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Japan has entered the era of super-ageing and advanced health transition, which is increasingly putting pressure on the sustainability of its health system. The level and pace of this health transition might vary across regions within Japan and concern is growing about increasing regional variations in disease burden. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive, comparable framework. We used data from GBD 2015 with the aim to quantify the burden of disease and injuries, and to attribute risk factors in Japan at a subnational, prefecture-level. METHODS: We used data from GBD 2015 for 315 causes and 79 risk factors of death, disease, and injury incidence and prevalence to measure the burden of diseases and injuries in Japan and in the 47 Japanese prefectures from 1990 to 2015. We extracted data from GBD 2015 to assess mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Japan and its 47 prefectures. We split extracted data by prefecture and applied GBD methods to generate estimates of burden, and attributable burden due to known risk factors. We examined the prefecture-level relationships of common health system inputs (eg, health expenditure and workforces) to the GBD outputs in 2015 to address underlying determinants of regional health variations. FINDINGS: Life expectancy at birth in Japan increased by 4·2 years from 79·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 79·0 to 79·0) to 83·2 years (83·1 to 83·2) between 1990 and 2015. However, the gaps between prefectures with the lowest and highest life expectancies and HALE have widened, from 2·5 to 3·1 years and from 2·3 to 2·7 years, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. Although overall age-standardised death rates decreased by 29·0% (28·7 to 29·3) from 1990 to 2015, the rates of mortality decline in this period substantially varied across the prefectures, ranging from -32·4% (-34·8 to -30·0) to -22·0% (-20·4 to -20·1). During the same time period, the rate of age-standardised DALYs was reduced overall by 19·8% (17·9 to 22·0). The reduction in rates of age-standardised YLDs was very small by 3·5% (2·6 to 4·3). The pace of reduction in mortality and DALYs in many leading causes has largely levelled off since 2005. Known risk factors accounted for 34·5% (32·4 to 36·9) of DALYs; the two leading behavioural risk factors were unhealthy diets and tobacco smoking in 2015. The common health system inputs were not associated with age-standardised death and DALY rates in 2015. INTERPRETATION: Japan has been successful overall in reducing mortality and disability from most major diseases. However, progress has slowed down and health variations between prefectures is growing. In view of the limited association between the prefecture-level health system inputs and health outcomes, the potential sources of regional variations, including subnational health system performance, urgently need assessment. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Japan Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, AXA CR Fixed Income Fund and AXA Research Fund.

Area-level socioeconomic deprivation and mortality differentials in Thailand: results from principal component analysis and cluster analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite achievement of universal health coverage in Thailand, socioeconomic inequality in health has been a major policy concern. This study examined mortality patterns across different socioeconomic strata in Thailand. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the 2010 Population and Housing Census on area-level socioeconomic deprivation against the 2010 mortality from the vital registration database at the super-district level. We used principal components analysis to construct a socioeconomic deprivation index and K-mean cluster analysis to group socioeconomic status and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: Excess mortality rates from all diseases, except colorectal cancer, were observed among super-districts with low socioeconomic status. Spatial clustering was evident in the distribution of socioeconomic status and mortality rates. Cluster analysis revealed that super-districts which were predominantly urban tended to have low all-cause standardize mortality ratio but a high colorectal cancer-specific mortality rate. Deaths due to liver cancer, diabetes, and renal diseases were common in the low socioeconomic super-districts which hosted one third of the total Thai population. CONCLUSION: Socially deprived areas have an excess of overall and cause specific deaths. Populations living in more affluent areas, despite low general mortality, still have many preventable deaths such as colorectal cancer. These findings warrant future epidemiological studies investigating various causes of excessive deaths in non-deprived areas and implementation of policies to reduce the mortality gap between rich and poor areas.

Dietary fiber intake and risk of breast cancer defined by estrogen and progesterone receptor status: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

PURPOSE: Epidemiological studies have suggested a protective effect of dietary fiber intake on breast cancer risk while the results have been inconsistent. Our study aimed to investigate the association between dietary fiber intake and breast cancer risk and to explore whether this association is modified by reproductive factors and hormone receptor status of the tumor. METHODS: A total of 44,444 women aged 45 to 74 years from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study were included in analyses. Dietary intake assessment was performed using a validated 138-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer incidence were calculated by multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: During 624,423 person-years of follow-up period, 681 breast cancer cases were identified. After adjusting for major confounders for breast cancer risk, inverse trends were observed but statistically non-significant. Extremely high intake of fiber was associated with decreased risk of breast cancer but this should be interpreted with caution due to limited statistical power. In stratified analyses by menopausal and hormone receptor status, null associations were observed except for ER-PR- status. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that extreme high fiber intake may be associated with decreased risk of breast cancer but the level of dietary fiber intake among Japanese population might not be sufficient to examine the association between dietary fiber intake and breast cancer risk.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.