Understanding the Link Between Obesity and Severe COVID-19 Outcomes: Causal Mediation by Systemic Inflammatory Response.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is an established risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes. The mechanistic underpinnings of this association are not well-understood. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the mediating role of systemic inflammation in obesity-associated COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: This hospital-based, observational study included 3828 SARS-CoV-2-infected patients who were hospitalized February to May 2020 at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) or Columbia University Irving Medical Center/New York Presbyterian Hospital (CUIMC/NYP). We use mediation analysis to evaluate whether peak inflammatory biomarkers (C-reactive protein [CRP], erythrocyte sedimentation rate [ESR], D-dimer, ferritin, white blood cell count and interleukin-6) are in the causal pathway between obesity (BMI ≥ 30) and mechanical ventilation or death within 28 days of presentation to care. RESULTS: In the MGH cohort (n = 1202), obesity was associated with greater likelihood of ventilation or death (OR = 1.73; 95% CI = [1.25, 2.41]; P = 0.001) and higher peak CRP (P < 0.001) compared with nonobese patients. The estimated proportion of the association between obesity and ventilation or death mediated by CRP was 0.49 (P < 0.001). Evidence of mediation was more pronounced in patients < 65 years (proportion mediated = 0.52 [P < 0.001] vs 0.44 [P = 0.180]). Findings were more moderate but consistent for peak ESR. Mediation by other inflammatory markers was not supported. Results were replicated in CUIMC/NYP cohort (n = 2626). CONCLUSION: Findings support systemic inflammatory pathways in obesity-associated severe COVID-19 disease, particularly in patients < 65 years, captured by CRP and ESR. Contextualized in clinical trial findings, these results reveal therapeutic opportunity to target systemic inflammatory pathways and monitor interventions in high-risk subgroups and particularly obese patients.

Circulating Lymphocyte Counts Early During Radiation Therapy Are Associated With Recurrence in Pediatric Medulloblastoma.

PURPOSE: Decreased peripheral lymphocyte counts are associated with survival after radiation therapy (RT) in several solid tumors, although they appear late during or after the radiation course and often correlate with other clinical factors. Here we investigate if absolute lymphocyte counts (ALCs) are independently associated with recurrence in pediatric medulloblastoma early during RT. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We assessed 202 patients with medulloblastoma treated between 2000 and 2016 and analyzed ALC throughout therapy, focusing on both early markers (ALC during week 1 - ALCwk1; grade 3+ Lymphopenia during week 2 - Lymphopeniawk2) and late markers (ALC nadir). Uni- and multivariable regressions were used to assess association of clinical and treatment variables with ALC and of ALC with recurrence. RESULTS: Thirty-six recurrences were observed, with a median time to recurrence of 1.6 years (range, 0.2-10.3) and 7.1 years median follow-up. ALC during RT was associated with induction chemotherapy (P < .001), concurrent carboplatin (P = .009), age (P = .01), and high-risk status (P = .05). On univariable analysis, high-risk disease (hazard ratio = 2.0 [1.06-3.9]; P = .03) and M stage≥1 (hazard ratio = 2.2 [1.1-4.4]) were associated with recurrence risk, as was lower ALC early during RT (ALCwk1, hazard ratio = 0.28 [0.12-0.65]; P = .003; Lymphopeniawk2, hazard ratio = 2.27 [1.1-4.6]; P = .02). Neither baseline ALC nor nadir correlated with outcome. These associations persisted when excluding carboplatin and pre-RT chemotherapy patients, and in the multivariable analysis accounting for confounders lymphocyte counts remained significant (ALCwk1, hazard-ratio = 0.23 [0.09-0.57]; P = .002; Lymphopeniawk2, hazard-ratio = 2.3 [1.1-4.8]; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: ALC during weeks 1 and 2 of RT was associated with recurrence, and low ALC is an independent prognostic factor in medulloblastoma. Strategies to mitigate the risk of radiation-induced lymphopenia should be considered.