The impact of BMI and smoking on risk of revision following knee and hip replacement surgery: evidence from routinely collected data.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the association of body mass index (BMI) and smoking with risk of revision following total knee replacement (TKR) and total hip replacement (THR). DESIGN: Primary care data, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), was linked to inpatient hospital records, from Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care (HES APC), and covered 1997 to 2014. Parametric survival models, with BMI and smoking status included as explanatory variables, were estimated for 10-year risk of revision and mortality, and were extrapolated to estimate lifetime risk of revision. FINDINGS: TKR and THR cohorts included 10,260 and 10,961 individuals, respectively. For a change in BMI from 25 to 35, the 10-year risk of revision is expected change from 4.6% (3.3-6.4%) to 3.7% (2.6-5.1%) for TKR and 3.7% (2.8-5.1%) to 4.0% (2.8-5.7%) for THR for an otherwise average patient profile. Meanwhile, changing from a non-smoker to a current smoker is expected to change the risk of revision from 4.1% (3.1-5.5%) to 2.8% (1.7-4.7%) for TKR and from 3.8% (2.8-5.3%) to 2.9% (1.9-4.7%) for THR for an otherwise average patient profile. Estimates of lifetime risk were also similar for different values of BMI or smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and smoking do not appear to have a meaningful impact on the risk of revision following TKR and THR.

Influence of age and sex steroids on bone density and geometry in middle-aged and elderly European men.

SUMMARY: The influence of age and sex steroids on bone density and geometry of the radius was examined in two European Caucasian populations. Age-related change in bone density and geometry was observed. In older men, bioavailable oestradiol may play a role in the maintenance of cortical and trabecular bone mineral density (BMD). INTRODUCTION: To examine the effect of age and sex steroids on bone density and geometry of the radius in two European Caucasian populations. METHODS: European Caucasian men aged 40-79 years were recruited from population registers in two centres: Manchester (UK) and Leuven (Belgium), for participation in the European Male Ageing Study. Total testosterone (T) and oestradiol (E(2)) were measured by mass spectrometry and the free and bioavailable fractions calculated. Peripheral quantitative computed tomography was used to scan the radius at distal (4%) and midshaft (50%) sites. RESULTS: Three hundred thirty-nine men from Manchester and 389 from Leuven, mean ages 60.2 and 60.0 years, respectively, participated. At the 50% radius site, there was a significant decrease with age in cortical BMD, bone mineral content (BMC), cortical thickness, and muscle area, whilst medullary area increased. At the 4% radius site, trabecular and total volumetric BMD declined with age. Increasing bioavailable E(2) (bioE(2)) was associated with increased cortical BMD (50% radius site) and trabecular BMD (4% radius site) in Leuven, but not Manchester, men. This effect was predominantly in those aged 60 years and over. In older Leuven men, bioavailable testosterone (Bio T) was linked with increased cortical BMC, muscle area and SSI (50% radius site) and total area (4% radius site). CONCLUSIONS: There is age-related change in bone density and geometry at the midshaft radius in middle-aged and elderly European men. In older men bioE(2) may maintain cortical and trabecular BMD. BioT may influence bone health through associations with muscle mass and bone area.

Chronic widespread pain is associated with slower cognitive processing speed in middle-aged and older European men.

Evidence from clinic-based studies suggests that the fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is associated with impairment in cognitive function though the mechanism is unclear. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether there is a similar association between chronic widespread pain (CWP), a cardinal feature of FMS, and impaired cognition in a community setting. Men (n=3369, 40-79 years) were recruited from population registers in eight centres for participation in the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS). The subjects completed a pain questionnaire and pain manikin, with the presence of CWP defined using the American College of Rheumatology criteria. The cognitive functions measured were visuospatial-constructional ability and visual memory (Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure [ROCF]); visual recognition (Camden Topographical Recognition Memory test [CTRM]); and psychomotor processing speed (Digit-Symbol Substitution test [DSST]). We restricted our analysis to those subjects reporting pain that satisfied the criteria for CWP and those who were pain free. Of these 1539 men [mean (SD) age 60 (11) years], 266 had CWP. All cognitive test scores declined cross-sectionally with age (P<0.05). In age-adjusted linear regressions men with CWP had a lower DSST score (ß=-2.4, P<0.001) compared to pain-free subjects. After adjustment for lifestyle and health factors the association between pain status and the DSST score was attenuated but remained significant (ß=-1.02, P=0.04). There was no association between CWP and the ROCF-copy, ROCF-recall or CTRM scores. CWP is associated with slower psychomotor processing speed among community-dwelling European men. Prospective studies are required to confirm this observation and explore possible mechanisms for the association.

Gonadal sex steroid status and bone health in middle-aged and elderly European men.

SUMMARY: The influence of sex steroids on calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS) parameters was assessed in a population sample of middle-aged and elderly European men. Higher free and total E(2) though not testosterone, were independently associated with higher QUS parameters. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between QUS parameters and sex steroids in middle-aged and elderly European men. METHODS: Three thousand one hundred forty-one men aged between 40 and 79 years were recruited from eight European centres for participation in a study of male ageing: the European Male Ageing Study. Subjects were invited by letter to attend for an interviewer-administered questionnaire, blood sample and QUS of the calcaneus (Hologic-SAHARA). Blood was assessed for sex steroids including oestradiol (E(2)), testosterone (T), free and bio-available E(2) and T and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). RESULTS: Serum total T was not associated with any of the QUS parameters. Free T and both free and total E(2) were positively related to all QUS readings, while SHBG concentrations were negatively associated. These relationships were observed in both older and younger (<60 years) men. In a multivariate model, after adjustment for age, centre, height, weight, physical activity levels and smoking, free E(2) and SHBG, though not free T, remained independently associated with the QUS parameters. After further adjustment for IGF-1, however, the association with SHBG became non-significant. CONCLUSION: Higher free and total E(2) are associated with bone health not only among the elderly but also middle-aged European men.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use does not appear to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis: results from a primary care based inception cohort of patients.

OBJECTIVES: There is controversy about the effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. The aim of this study was to explore associations between NSAID use and mortality in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A total of 923 patients with new onset (IP), recruited to the UK Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) between 1990-1994, were followed up to the end of 2004. Current medication was recorded annually for the first 6 years and then every 2-3 years. Rheumatoid factor (RF) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured. Logistic regression was used to calculate all cause and CVD mortality odds ratios (OR) for NSAID use at baseline and during follow-up, adjusting for gender and time-varying covariates: RF, CRP, joint counts, smoking, steroid use, DMARD use and other medication use. RESULTS: By 2004 there were 203 deaths, 85 due to CVD. At baseline, NSAIDs were used by 66% of patients. In final multivariate models, baseline NSAID use was inversely associated with all cause mortality (adjusted OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.84) and CVD mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.86). Interval NSAID use had weaker mortality associations: all cause mortality (adjusted OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.00), CVD mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% CI 0.40 to 1.08). CONCLUSION: No excess CVD or all cause mortality was observed in NSAID users in this cohort of patients with IP. This is at variance with the literature relating to NSAID use in the general population. It is unclear whether this represents unmeasured confounders influencing a doctor's decision to avoid NSAIDs in the treatment of IP.

European biologicals registers: methodology, selected results and perspectives.

With the licensing of the first tumour necrosis factor (TNF)alpha inhibitors, independent academia-initiated but industry-sponsored drug registers were set up by the national rheumatology societies in several European countries in order to monitor the long-term safety and effectiveness of this new generation of drugs. Even though different in some respects of study design and monitoring, the registers share a number of common features: they include all licensed biological agents, they observe the patients for a defined period of time or indefinitely irrespective of the drug given and they use comparator cohorts or national registers in order to put the results into perspective. The registers have been collaborating closely since inception. Three of them (the British, Swedish and German registers) have agreed on a standardised reporting system of adverse events which ensures a high and uniform quality of data submitted to the companies, who subsequently report to the drug regulatory authorities, enabling regulatory requirements on safety surveillance to be fulfilled. In the present work, major results on drug safety with regard to infections, malignancies, cardiovascular events, pregnancy outcomes and deaths are summarised. With an increasing number of new drugs and multiple exposures of individual patients the assignment of events to specific treatments will become exceedingly difficult. This and other methodological challenges and the approaches to cope with them are discussed. A growing dialogue between drug regulatory authorities, academic medicine and companies in order to make best use of the potentials of academia-driven drug registers as new tools for pharmacovigilance with currently described rheumatology registers as prototypes is anticipated.

Investigating the determinants of international differences in the prevalence of chronic widespread pain: evidence from the European Male Ageing Study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether among middle-aged and elderly men there is evidence of international differences in the prevalence of chronic widespread pain (CWP) and whether any such differences could be explained by psychological, psychosocial factors or differences in physical health status. METHODS: The European Male Ageing Study (EMAS) sampled from population registers in cities (centres) of eight European countries. Each centre recruited an age-stratified sample of men aged 40-79 years. Information on pain was collected by questionnaire and subjects were classified according to whether they satisfied the American College of Rheumatology definition of CWP. Information was collected on social status, mental health, recent life events and co-morbidities. RESULTS: Across all centres 3963 subjects completed a study questionnaire, with participation rates ranging from 24% in Hungary to 72% in Estonia. There were significant differences in prevalence: between 5% and 7% in centres in Italy, England, Belgium and Sweden, 9-15% in centres in Spain, Poland and Hungary and 15% in Estonia. There were strong relationships between poor mental health, adverse recent life events, co-morbidities and CWP. Adjustment for these factors explained between half and all of the excess risk in the eastern European centres: the excess risk in Poland was explained (odds ratio (OR) 1.1, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.2) but there remained excess risk in Hungary (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 1.8) and Estonia (OR 2.6, 95% CI 2.2 to 2.9). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first directly to compare the occurrence of CWP internationally. There is an excess prevalence in countries of eastern Europe and this excess is associated with adverse psychosocial factors as well as poorer psychological and physical health.

Management of Behçet disease: a systematic literature review for the European League Against Rheumatism evidence-based recommendations for the management of Behçet disease.

OBJECTIVES: To present and analyse the literature sources regarding the management of Behçet disease (BD) identified during the systematic literature research, which formed the basis for the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) evidence-based recommendations for the management of BD. METHODS: Problem areas and related keywords regarding the management of BD were determined by the multidisciplinary expert committee commissioned by EULAR for developing the recommendations. A systematic literature research was performed using MedLine and Cochrane Library resources through to December 2006. Meta-analyses, systematic reviews, randomised controlled trials (RCTs), open studies, observational studies, case control studies and case series' involving > or = 5 patients were included. For each intervention the effect size and number needed to treat were calculated for efficacy. Odds ratios and numbers needed to harm were calculated for safety issues of different treatment modalities where possible. RESULTS: The literature research yielded 137 articles that met the inclusion criteria; 20 of these were RCTs. There was good evidence supporting the use of azathioprine and cyclosporin A in eye involvement and interferon (IFN)alpha in mucocutaneous involvement. There were no RCTs with IFNalpha or tumour necrosis factor (TNF)alpha antagonists in eye involvement. Similarly controlled data for the management of vascular, gastrointestinal and neurological involvement is lacking. CONCLUSION: Properly designed, controlled studies (new and confirmatory) are still needed to guide us in managing BD.

Musculoskeletal pain is associated with a long-term increased risk of cancer and cardiovascular-related mortality.

OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that individuals with regional and widespread pain disorders have an increased risk of mortality. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 4515 adults. Subjects were an age- and sex-stratified sample who had participated in a population study of pain occurrence during 1996. Based on those reports subjects were classified as having no pain, regional pain or widespread pain. All subjects were identified on the National Health Service Central Register and followed up until April 2005, a total of 8.2 yrs, at which time information was obtained on vital status, and if applicable, date and cause of death. The relationship between pain status and subsequent death is expressed as mortality rate ratios with 95% CIs, adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity and practice. RESULTS: A total of 35.2% reported regional pain and 16.9% satisfied criteria for widespread pain. In comparison with those without pain, there was a 20% and 30% increased risk of dying over the follow-up period among subjects with regional and widespread pain, respectively. The specific causes of death in excess were cancer and cardiovascular disease. In addition, the mortality risk from both cancer and cardiovascular deaths was found to increase as the number of pain sites that subjects reported increased. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports a previous observation that persons with regional and widespread pain are at an increased risk of cancer death. Possible mechanisms should be explored.

EULAR evidence-based recommendations for the management of fibromyalgia syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To develop evidence-based recommendations for the management of fibromyalgia syndrome. METHODS: A multidisciplinary task force was formed representing 11 European countries. The design of the study, including search strategy, participants, interventions, outcome measures, data collection and analytical method, was defined at the outset. A systematic review was undertaken with the keywords "fibromyalgia", "treatment or management" and "trial". Studies were excluded if they did not utilise the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria, were not clinical trials, or included patients with chronic fatigue syndrome or myalgic encephalomyelitis. Primary outcome measures were change in pain assessed by visual analogue scale and fibromyalgia impact questionnaire. The quality of the studies was categorised based on randomisation, blinding and allocation concealment. Only the highest quality studies were used to base recommendations on. When there was insufficient evidence from the literature, a Delphi process was used to provide basis for recommendation. RESULTS: 146 studies were eligible for the review. 39 pharmacological intervention studies and 59 non-pharmacological were included in the final recommendation summary tables once those of a lower quality or with insufficient data were separated. The categories of treatment identified were antidepressants, analgesics, and "other pharmacological" and exercise, cognitive behavioural therapy, education, dietary interventions and "other non-pharmacological". In many studies sample size was small and the quality of the study was insufficient for strong recommendations to be made. CONCLUSIONS: Nine recommendations for the management of fibromyalgia syndrome were developed using a systematic review and expert consensus.

Investigating the role of the HLA-Cw*06 and HLA-DRB1 genes in susceptibility to psoriatic arthritis: comparison with psoriasis and undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Psoriasis of early onset (type I; age of onset 40 years). HLA-DRB1*07, in linkage disequilibrium with HLA-Cw*06, was also associated with patients with PsA having type I psoriasis (OR 2.7, 95% CI 2.1, 3.7, p<0.00001). HLA-DRB1*04 alleles and the SE were associated with undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis but not with PsA. CONCLUSIONS: The SE is not a PsA susceptibility locus. HLA-Cw*06 and HLA-DRB1*07 are associated with patients with PsA having type I psoriasis, suggesting that the primary association is with age of onset of psoriasis. Patients with PsA having type I psoriasis, therefore, have a genetic background different to those with type II psoriasis, and adjustment for this is necessary in future studies that investigate the genetic susceptibility of PsA.

Environmental risk factors for the development of psoriatic arthritis: results from a case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential risk factors for the onset of inflammatory arthritis (IA) in a large cohort of patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) of recent onset. METHODS: We recruited cases with psoriasis and an onset of IA within the past 5 years. Controls were patients who had psoriasis but no arthritis. We assessed potential factors associated with the development of IA using a detailed postal questionnaire. An unmatched analysis adjusted for age and gender was performed. Exposure was censored in the controls at a "dummy-date" assigned randomly in proportion to the percentage of cases developing IA in any given year. RESULTS: We studied 98 cases and 163 controls. Exposures showing a positive association before the onset of IA in patients with psoriasis were: rubella vaccination (OR (95% CI) = 12.4 (1.2 to 122)), injury sufficient to require a medical consultation (2.53 (1.1 to 6.0)), recurrent oral ulcers (4.2 (2.0 to 9.0)) and moving house (2.3 (1.2 to 4.4)). Cases were also more likely to have experienced a fractured bone requiring hospital admission (50% vs 9%, p = 0.040). CONCLUSIONS: We found a number of environmental exposures associated with the onset of IA in subjects with psoriasis. The strongest associations were with trauma thereby adding to the hypothesis of a "deep Koebner phenomenon" in PsA. Our data also suggest that exposure of the immune system to certain infection-related triggers may also be of relevance. Further studies are needed to verify these observations and to examine potential immunological mechanisms that underlie them.

Reduction in the incidence of myocardial infarction in patients with rheumatoid arthritis who respond to anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha therapy: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register.

OBJECTIVE: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease, possibly acting via shared mechanisms of inflammation. This study was undertaken to test the hypothesis that the powerful antiinflammatory effect of anti-tumor necrosis alpha (anti-TNFalpha) therapy might lead to a reduction in the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with RA. METHODS: Using data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register, a national prospective observational study, we compared MI rates in 8,670 patients with RA treated with anti-TNFalpha and 2,170 patients with active RA treated with traditional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). RESULTS: Through July 2006, 63 MIs occurred in the anti-TNFalpha cohort during 13,233 person-years of followup and 17 MIs occurred in the DMARD cohort during 2,893 person-years of followup, equivalent to a rate of 4.8 events per 1,000 person-years and 5.9 events per 1,000 person-years, respectively. After adjustment for baseline risk factors, there was no reduction in the rate of MI in the anti-TNFalpha cohort compared with the DMARD cohort (incidence rate ratio 1.44 [95% confidence interval 0.56-3.67]). In an analysis of anti-TNFalpha-treated patients who responded to the treatment within 6 months versus those who did not, MI rates were found to be 3.5 events per 1,000 person-years in responders and 9.4 events per 1,000 person-years in nonresponders. The adjusted incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval) for responders compared with nonresponders was 0.36 (0.19-0.69). CONCLUSION: These results indicate that RA patients treated with anti-TNFalpha do not have a lower incidence of MI compared with RA patients treated with traditional DMARDs. However, the risk of MI is markedly reduced in those who respond to anti-TNFalpha therapy by 6 months compared with nonresponders. This finding supports the notion that inflammation plays a pivotal role in MI.

Serious infection following anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: lessons from interpreting data from observational studies.

OBJECTIVE: In a recent observational study, we found that the risk of serious infection following anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNFalpha) therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was not importantly increased compared with the background risk in routinely treated RA patients with similar disease severity. Observational data sets are, however, subject to a number of important biases related to selection factors for the timing of starting and stopping therapy. Infection risk is also likely to vary with duration of therapy. This study was undertaken to examine the influences of these biases and of the method of analysis on the risk of infection. METHODS: We compared the risk of serious infection in 8,659 patients treated with anti-TNFalpha with that in 2,170 patients treated with traditional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) recruited to the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register. We applied a number of statistical models in which we varied the length of the followup period by using different definitions of the date of discontinuation of treatment and different lag periods of risk following drug cessation. RESULTS: When the at-risk period was defined as "receiving treatment", the adjusted incidence rate ratio comparing patients receiving anti-TNFalpha therapy with patients receiving DMARD therapy was 1.22 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.88-1.69). Limiting followup to the first 90 days, however, revealed an adjusted incidence rate ratio of 4.6 (95% CI 1.8-11.9). Rates of infection were increased in the 90 days immediately following drug discontinuation and beyond, explained by selection factors for drug discontinuation. CONCLUSION: These findings show that overall, the way in which UK rheumatologists select patients for starting and discontinuing anti-TNFalpha therapy explains our previous finding of no increase in risk. However, there may be important increases in true risk, notably early in the course of treatment, that would become more evident depending on the definition of at-risk period.

Acculturation and the prevalence of pain amongst South Asian minority ethnic groups in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal pain is reported more commonly by South Asians in the UK than by white Europeans. This may result from a variety of factors, including cultural differences, and thus we investigated the extent to which differences in the prevalence of pain within the South Asian population could be explained by differences in acculturation (the extent to which immigrants take on the culture of their host population). METHODS: Nine hundred and thirty-three Europeans and 1914 South Asian (1165 Indian, 401 Pakistani and 348 Bangladeshi) subjects were recruited from the age-sex registers of 13 general practices in areas with high densities of South Asian populations (Bolton, Oldham, Ashton-under-Lyne and Birmingham). A 28-item acculturation scale was developed, based, on aspects including use of language, clothing style, and use of own-culture media. Principle component analysis generated a score (range 0-100), which was validated against constructs expected to relate to acculturation, such as years of full time education and time spent in the UK. The presence of widespread pain was assessed by the answer to the question 'Have you suffered from pain all over the body in the past month?' RESULTS: Widespread pain was more common in all three South Asian ethnic groups than in the white Europeans [odds ratio (OR) = 3.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.9-4.9], with this increase ranging from 2.7 to 5.8 in the different South Asian subgroups. There was a similar increase in consultation rates for pain. Within the South Asians, pooling all three groups, there was a strong negative association between acculturation score and widespread pain, which remained after adjusting for age and sex: [OR (95% CI) per standard deviation decrease in acculturation score -1.2 (1.0-1.3)]. Adjusting for acculturation accounted for some, but not all, of the differences between the ethnic groups in the prevalence of widespread pain: OR 2.0 (95% CI 1.4-3.0). CONCLUSIONS: Widespread pain is more commonly reported in South Asians though there are interesting differences within the South Asian community. Lower acculturation has a strong influence on the reporting of pain, but cannot explain all of the difference between South Asian and European populations.

Pressure pain thresholds and tender point counts as predictors of new chronic widespread pain in somatising subjects.

BACKGROUND: Tender points are a general measure of distress both in the community and in clinic subjects. It has been suggested that multiple tender points should be regarded as the early stages of somatisation of distress. Similarly, recent evidence suggests that chronic widespread pain (CWP) is one manifestation of the somatisation of distress. OBJECTIVE: Given that a high tender point count and CWP are clinical hallmarks of the fibromyalgia syndrome, it was hypothesised that in somatising subjects, a high tender point count or a low pain threshold would predict the development of CWP in the future. METHODS: In this population-based prospective study, 245 adults aged 25-65 years, free of CWP, were identified on the basis of a detailed questionnaire on pain and a psychosocial questionnaire comprising the Somatic Symptom Checklist and the Illness Behaviour subscale of the Illness Attitude Scales. These subjects took part in a pain threshold examination with a Fischer pressure algometer. Tender point counts were computed by including all areas with a pain threshold<4 kg/cm2. Individuals were followed up at 15 months, at which time 231 (93% of subjects still living at their baseline address) provided data on pain status, using the same instruments. RESULTS: At follow-up, 26 (11%) subjects developed new CWP. Although subjects with a low baseline pain threshold were not at increased risk of developing symptoms, a high tender point count, adjusted for age, sex, baseline pain status and other confounding factors, predicted the development of new CWP. CONCLUSION: Subjects free of CWP are at an increased risk of its development if they have a high tender point count. However, a low-pressure pain threshold does not predict the onset of symptoms. Data from this population-based prospective study suggest that a low pain threshold in subjects with CWP is likely to be a secondary phenomenon as a result of pain or associated distress rather than the antecedent of symptoms.

The role of psychosocial factors in predicting the onset of chronic widespread pain: results from a prospective population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic widespread pain (CWP) is strongly associated with psychosocial distress both in a clinical setting and in the community. The aim of this study was to determine the contribution of measures of psychosocial distress, health-seeking behaviour, sleep problems and traumatic life events to the development of new cases of CWP in the community. METHODS: In a population-based prospective study, 3171 adults aged 25-65 yrs free of CWP were followed-up 15 months later to identify those with new CWP. Baseline data were available on their scores from a number of psychological scales including Illness Attitude Scales (IAS), Somatic Symptom Checklist (SSC), Hospital Anxiety & Depression Scale, Sleep Problems Scale, and Life Events Inventory. RESULTS: 324 subjects [10%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.2, 11.3] developed new CWP at follow-up. After adjustment for age and sex, three factors independently predicted the development of CWP: scoring three or more on the SSC [odds ratio (OR) 1.8, 95% CI 1.1, 3.1], scoring eight or more on the Illness Behaviour subscale of the IAS (OR 3.3, 95% CI 2.3, 4.8), and nine or more on the Sleep Problem Scale (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6, 3.2). Subjects exposed to all three factors were at 12 times the odds of new CWP than those with low scores on all scales. CONCLUSION: Subjects are at substantial increased odds of developing CWP if they display features of somatization, health-seeking behaviour and poor sleep. Psychosocial distress has a strong aetiological influence on CWP.

Rates of serious infection, including site-specific and bacterial intracellular infection, in rheumatoid arthritis patients receiving anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the rate of serious infection is higher in anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF)-treated rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients compared with RA patients treated with traditional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). METHODS: This was a national prospective observational study of 7,664 anti-TNF-treated and 1,354 DMARD-treated patients with severe RA from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register. All serious infections, stratified by site and organism, were included in the analysis. RESULTS: Between December 2001 and September 2005, there were 525 serious infections in the anti-TNF-treated cohort and 56 in the comparison cohort (9,868 and 1,352 person-years of followup, respectively). The incidence rate ratio (IRR), adjusted for baseline risk, for the anti-TNF-treated cohort compared with the comparison cohort was 1.03 (95% confidence interval 0.68-1.57). However, the frequency of serious skin and soft tissue infections was increased in anti-TNF-treated patients, with an adjusted IRR of 4.28 (95% confidence interval 1.06-17.17). There was no difference in infection risk between the 3 main anti-TNF drugs. Nineteen serious bacterial intracellular infections occurred, exclusively in patients in the anti-TNF-treated cohort. CONCLUSION: In patients with active RA, anti-TNF therapy was not associated with increased risk of overall serious infection compared with DMARD treatment, after adjustment for baseline risk. In contrast, the rate of serious skin and soft tissue infections was increased, suggesting an important physiologic role of TNF in host defense in the skin and soft tissues beyond that in other tissues.

Risk factors for the development of rheumatoid arthritis.

There is increasing interest in attempting to understand what the risk factors are that lead to the development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Twin studies have proved a genetic role but also quantified the non-genetic risk. There is thus scope for identifying environmental predictors that might offer a strategy to prevent the disease. Changes in the female hormonal environment such as in pregnancy, breastfeeding and the use of the oral contraceptive (OC) pill appear to have a role. Of the traditional lifestyle exposures, cigarette smoking has been associated with a consistently increased risk that might also apply to the passive inhalation of smoke. Occupation probably has a minor influence, although exposure to silica dust is of aetiological importance. Recent studies have highlighted a role for diet, with suggestions that diets high in caffeine, low in antioxidants and high in red meat may contribute to an increased risk. The most plausible environmental exposure is infection and although several decades of study have produced few definitive candidate organisms, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) remains an interesting target.

Predictors of response to anti-TNF-alpha therapy among patients with rheumatoid arthritis: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register.

BACKGROUND: Anti-tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) therapies represent an important advancement in therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, there remains a proportion of patients who do not improve despite therapy. These drugs are expensive and have the potential of serious toxicity. Therefore, it would be ideal to predict the patients who will respond, so that the use of these drugs can be targetted. OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical factors present at the start of anti-TNF-alpha therapy that are associated with response at 6 months in patients with RA. METHODS: The British Society for Rheumatology (BSR) Biologics Register collects detailed data on all patients with a rheumatic disease receiving biologic therapy in the UK. We studied all patients with RA who had started etanercept (ETA) or infliximab (INF) and had achieved a minimum 6 months follow-up by 1 October, 2004. The disease status at the baseline and at 6 months was assessed using the Disease Activity Score (DAS28). The response was classified according to the European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) improvement criteria. The effect of baseline characteristics on response was studied using multivariate ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS: 2879 patients were included in this analysis (1267 ETA, 1612 INF). At the start of therapy, the mean age was 55 yrs, disease duration 14 yrs, baseline DAS28 6.7 and health assessment questionnaire (HAQ) 2.1. In all, 28% of ETA and 86% of INF patients were receiving methotrexate. After 6 months, 18% had a good EULAR response, of whom 9% were considered to be in remission and 50% had a moderate response. There was no overall difference in response rate between the two anti-TNF-alpha therapies. A higher baseline HAQ score correlated with a lower response rate while a better response was associated with the current use of NSAIDs and the use of methotrexate (MTX), although the latter only reached statistical significance with ETA [OR 1.82 (95% CI 1.38-2.40)]. There was a lower response rate among current smokers, particularly in patients receiving INF [OR 0.77 (95% CI 0.60-0.99)]. Age, disease duration, rheumatoid factor and the previous number of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) did not predict response to either drug. However, females were less likely to achieve remission. CONCLUSIONS: These data support an improved outcome among patients receiving MTX in combination with anti-TNF-alpha therapies. However, the most disabled patients were less likely to respond, despite concurrent MTX. The benefits of NSAIDs may reflect the relative absence of comorbidities in patients who can tolerate these drugs or the continuing presence of reversible inflammatory symptoms. The association of smoking and poor outcome with INF is a novel finding and may reflect alterations in pharmacokinetics. The inability of other baseline disease characteristics to predict the outcome suggests that other factors, including potential genetic differences in drug metabolism, may be influencing the response to anti-TNF-alpha therapies.