Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission / Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19 / Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19

Objective: to analyze epidemic curves based on mathematical models for the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission. Method: the linear, polynomial and exponential regression model was used to make the numerical adjustment of the respective curves empirical. Result: it was found that the models used describe very well the empirical curves in which they were tested. In particular, the polynomial model is able to identify with reasonable reliability the appearance of the inflection point in the accumulated curves, which corresponds to the maximum point of the respective daily curves. The analysis indicates a weak positive correlation between infection, mortality, lethality and deaths from COVID-19 with population density, as revealed by the correlation and analysis of R2 . Conclusion: the models are very effective in describing the COVID-19 and epidemic curves in the estimation of important epidemiological parameters, such as peak case curves and daily deaths, allowing practical and efficient monitoring of the evolution of the epidemic.

Objetivo: analizar curvas epidémicas basadas en modelos matemáticos para el estado de Mato Grosso do Sul y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión de COVID-19. Método: se utilizó el modelo de regresión lineal, polinomial y exponencial para hacer el ajuste numérico valor de las respectivas curvas empíricas. Resultados: se encontró que los modelos utilizados describen muy bien las curvas empíricas en las que fueron probados. En particular, el modelo polinomial es capaz de identificar con razonable fiabilidad la aparición del punto de inflexión en las curvas acumuladas, que corresponde al punto máximo de las respectivas curvas diarias. El análisis indica una correlación positiva débil entre la infección, la mortalidad, la letalidad y las muertes por COVID-19 con la densidad de población, según lo revelado por la correlación y el análisis de R2 .Conclusión: los modelos son muy efectivos para describir el COVID-19 y curvas epidémicas en la estimación de parámetros epidemiológicos importantes, como las curvas de casos máximos y las muertes diarias, lo que permite un seguimiento práctico y eficaz de la evolución de la epidemia.

Objetivo: analisar as curvas epidêmicas com base em modelos matemáticos para o estado de Mato Grosso do Sul e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19. Método: o modelo de regressão linear, polinomial e exponencial foi utilizado para fazer o ajuste numérico das respectivas curvas empíricas. Resultados: verificou-se que os modelos utilizados descrevem muito bem as curvas empíricas nas quais foram testados. Em particular, o modelo polinomial é capaz de identificar com razoável confiabilidade o aparecimento do ponto de inflexão nas curvas acumuladas, que corresponde ao ponto máximo das respectivas curvas diárias. A análise indica uma correlação positiva fraca entre infecção, mortalidade, letalidade e mortes por COVID-19 com a densidade populacional, conforme revelado pela correlação e análise de R 2. Conclusão: os modelos são muito eficazes na descrição das curvas epidêmicas de COVID19 e na estimativa de parâmetros epidemiológicos importantes, como curvas de casos de pico e óbitos diários, permitindo um monitoramento prático e eficiente da evolução da epidemia

Does the Sequence of Anthracycline and Taxane Matter? The NeoSAMBA Trial.

BACKGROUND: Taxanes usually follow anthracyclines in breast cancer neo/adjuvant treatment, likely because of their later introduction into clinical practice. However, there is no biological rationale that justifies this current standard of care. We compared a taxane followed by an anthracycline-based regimen with the reverse sequence in the neoadjuvant setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a randomized, open-label, single-center phase II trial, women with inoperable, locally advanced, HER2-negative breast cancer were stratified by hormone receptor status and randomized to three cycles of docetaxel (T) followed by three cycles of fluorouracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide (FAC) versus three cycles of FAC followed by three cycles of docetaxel. Surgery, radiotherapy, and adjuvant hormonal therapy were administered as per local guidelines. The primary endpoint was pathological complete response (pCR), and secondary endpoints included toxicity, event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Treatment sequence did not improve pCR, which was 7% with T-FAC and 3% with FAC-T. However, after a median follow-up of 79 months, the 5-year EFS rate was 75.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 65.4%-87.7%) with T-FAC and 48.2% (95% CI, 37.0%-62.7%) with FAC-T (hazard ratio [HR], 0.46; 95% CI, 0.26-0.81; log-rank p = .0054), and the 5-year OS rate was 89.7% (95% CI, 82.2%-97.8%) with T-FAC and 64.7% (95% CI, 53.6%-78.1%) with FAC-T (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.22-0.78; p = .0052). There were no unexpected toxicities. CONCLUSION: We showed for the first time an improvement in EFS and OS with taxane-first compared with anthracycline-first sequencing chemotherapy in HER2-negative, locally advanced breast cancer. Confirmation of these results may have implications for clinical practice. This trial was registered with Clinicatrials.gov identifier NCT01270373. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The NeoSAMBA trial showed a benefit for taxane-first sequencing chemotherapy consistent with the systematic review of the literature as well as the larger Neo-tAnGo study. Many recent and current ongoing clinical trials have already followed this treatment strategy. As a taxane-before-anthracycline sequence carries neither an incremental cost nor an increased toxicity, and given the available literature on this issue, reinforced that taxane-first regimen can be easily incorporated into daily clinical practice while awaiting confirmation of these findings from larger trials.

Roadkill of wild vertebrates along the GO-060 road between Goiânia and Iporá, Goiás State, Brazil / Atropelamento de vertebrados silvestres na rodovia GO-060 entre Goiânia e Iporá Estado de Goiás, Brasil

Roadkill of wild vertebrates along GO-060, Brazil. Roads represent an old and constant cause of accidental death of wildlife. From May 2004 to November 2005, we recorded the roadkills of vertebrates in the GO-060 road between Goiânia and Iporá. For each road-killed animal we wrote down the species and location along the road. We found 308 animals roadkilled from at least 25 vertebrate species: 86% mammals, 11% birds and 3% reptiles. Tamandua tetradactyla, Cerdocyon thous and Myrmecophaga tridactyla were, in decreasing order, the species with the largest number of road-killed individuals. Among mammals, the number of road-killed individuals was not related to species weight. The number of species and road-killed animals was constant throughout the 17 months of the research. The average frequency of animal roadkills in the dry season (April to September) is slightly higher than the frequency in the rainy season (October to March). The average frequency of species victim to accidents, however, is constant throughout the dry and rainy seasons. The incidence of species and individuals of road-killed animals per 10 km was not influenced by the number of forest fragments along the sides of the road. We suggest that speed reducers could decrease the number of animals killed on the road.

As rodovias representam uma antiga e constante causa de mortalidade acidental da fauna silvestre. Entre maio/2004 e novembro/2005, registramos os vertebrados atropelados às margens da rodovia GO-060, entre Goiânia e Iporá. Para cada animal atropelado anotamos a espécie e a localização ao longo da estrada. Foram registrados 308 animais atropelados de pelo menos 25 espécies de vertebrados: 86% de mamíferos, 11% de aves e 3% de répteis. Tamandua tetradactyla, Cerdocyon thous e Myrmecophaga tridactyla foram em ordem decrescente as espécies com maior número de indivíduos atropelados. Entre os mamíferos, o número de animais atropelados não esteve relacionado a massa corporal das espécies. A frequência de espécies e de animais atropelados foi constante ao longo dos 17 meses entre 2004 e 2005. A frequência média de animais atropelados na estação seca (abril a setembro) é ligeiramente superior à freqüência da estação chuvosa (outubro a março). Já a freqüência média de espécies atropeladas é constante ao longo das estações seca e chuvosa. A incidência de espécies e de animais atropelados por faixa de 10 km não foi influenciado pelo número de fragmentos de matas nas margens da estrada. Nós sugerimos que redutores de velocidade em trechos críticos poderiam reduzir as mortes por atropelamento na rodovia.