Multivariable risk scores for predicting short-term outcomes for emergency department patients with unexplained syncope: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Emergency department (ED) patients with unexplained syncope are at risk of experiencing an adverse event within 30 days. Our objective was to systematically review the accuracy of multivariate risk stratification scores for identifying adult syncope patients at high and low risk of an adverse event over the next 30 days. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of electronic databases (MEDLINE, Cochrane, Embase, and CINAHL) from database creation until May 2020. We sought studies evaluating prediction scores of adults presenting to an ED with syncope. We included studies that followed patients for up to 30 days to identify adverse events such as death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiac surgery. We only included studies with a blinded comparison between baseline clinical features and adverse events. We calculated likelihood ratios and confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: We screened 13,788 abstracts. We included 17 studies evaluating nine risk stratification scores on 24,234 patient visits, where 7.5% (95% CI = 5.3% to 10%) experienced an adverse event. A Canadian Syncope Risk Score (CSRS) of 4 or more was associated with a high likelihood of an adverse event (LRscore≥4  = 11, 95% CI = 8.9 to 14). A CSRS of 0 or less (LRscore≤0  = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.20) was associated with a low likelihood of an adverse event. Other risk scores were not validated on an independent sample, had low positive likelihood ratios for identifying patients at high risk, or had high negative likelihood ratios for identifying patients at low risk. CONCLUSION: Many risk stratification scores are not validated or not sufficiently accurate for clinical use. The CSRS is an accurate validated prediction score for ED patients with unexplained syncope. Its impact on clinical decision making, admission rates, cost, or outcomes of care is not known.

Does This Patient Have a Severe Snake Envenomation?: The Rational Clinical Examination Systematic Review.

Importance: Venomous snakebite severity ranges from an asymptomatic dry bite to severe envenomation and death. The clinical evaluation aids in prognosis and is essential to determine the risks and potential benefits of antivenom treatment. Objectives: To identify historical features, clinical examination findings, basic laboratory testing, and clinical grading scales that will risk-stratify patients with pit viper snake envenomation for severe systemic envenomation, severe tissue injury, and/or severe hematologic venom effects. Data Sources: We conducted a structured search of PubMed (1966-October 3, 2017) and Embase database (1980-October 3, 2017) to identify English-language studies that evaluated clinical features predictive of severe envenomation. Study Selection: We included studies that evaluated the test performance of at least 1 clinical finding with an acceptable reference standard of severe envenomation for venomous snakes of the Western Hemisphere. Only studies involving the most common subfamily, Crotalinae (pit vipers), were evaluated. Seventeen studies with data were available for abstraction. Data Extraction and Synthesis: The clinical features assessed and severity outcome measures were extracted from each original study. We assessed severity in 3 categories: systemic toxicity, tissue injury, and hematologic effects. Differences were resolved by author consensus. Results: The pooled prevalence of severe systemic envenomation was 14% (95% CI, 9%-21%). The pooled prevalence of severe tissue injury and severe hematologic venom effects were 14% (95% CI, 12%-16%) and 18% (95% CI, 8%-27%), respectively. Factors increasing the likelihood of severe systemic envenomation included the time from bite to care of 6 or more hours (likelihood ratio [LR], 3.4 [95% CI, 1.1-6.4]), a patient younger than 12 years (LRs, 3.2 [95% CI, 1.5-7.1] and 2.9 [95% CI, 1.3-6.2]), large snake size (LR, 3.1 [95% CI, 1.5-5.7]), and ptosis (LRs, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.0-2.1] and 3.8 [95% CI, 1.8-8.3]). Envenomation by the genus Agkistrodon (copperhead and cottonmouth), as opposed to rattlesnakes, decreased the likelihood of severe systemic envenomation (LR, 0.28 [95% CI, 0.10-0.78]). Initial hypofibrinogenemia (LR, 5.1 [95% CI, 1.7-15.0]) and thrombocytopenia (LR, 3.7 [95% CI, 1.9-7.3]) increased the likelihood of severe hematologic venom effects. Other clinical features from history, physical examination, or normal laboratory values were not discriminative. Conclusions: Clinical features can identify patients at increased risk of severe systemic envenomation and severe hematologic venom effects, but there are few features that are associated with severe tissue injury or can confidently exclude severe envenomation. Physicians should monitor patients closely and be wary of progression from nonsevere to a severe envenomation and have a low threshold to escalate therapy as needed.

Guideline-based decision support has a small, non-sustained effect on transthoracic echocardiography ordering frequency.

BACKGROUND: Guidance for appropriate utilisation of transthoracic echocardiograms (TTEs) can be incorporated into ordering prompts, potentially affecting the number of requests. METHODS: We incorporated data from the 2011 Appropriate Use Criteria for Echocardiography, the 2010 National Institute for Clinical Excellence Guideline on Chronic Heart Failure, and American College of Cardiology Choosing Wisely list on TTE use for dyspnoea, oedema and valvular disease into electronic ordering systems at Durham Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Our primary outcome was TTE orders per month. Secondary outcomes included rates of outpatient TTE ordering per 100 visits and frequency of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) ordering prior to TTE. Outcomes were measured for 20 months before and 12 months after the intervention. RESULTS: The number of TTEs ordered did not decrease (338±32 TTEs/month prior vs 320±33 afterwards, p=0.12). Rates of outpatient TTE ordering decreased minimally post intervention (2.28 per 100 primary care/cardiology visits prior vs 1.99 afterwards, p<0.01). Effects on TTE ordering and ordering rate significantly interacted with time from intervention (p<0.02 for both), as the small initial effects waned after 6 months. The percentage of TTE orders with preceding BNP increased (36.5% prior vs 42.2% after for inpatients, p=0.01; 10.8% prior vs 14.5% after for outpatients, p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Ordering prompts for TTEs initially minimally reduced the number of TTEs ordered and increased BNP measurement at a single institution, but the effect on TTEs ordered was likely insignificant from a utilisation standpoint and decayed over time.

Do findings on routine examination identify patients at risk for primary open-angle glaucoma? The rational clinical examination systematic review.

IMPORTANCE: Glaucoma is the second leading cause of blindness worldwide, and its insidious onset is often associated with diagnostic delay. Since glaucoma progression can often be effectively diminished when treated, identifying individuals at risk for glaucoma could potentially lead to earlier detection and prevent associated vision loss. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the diagnostic accuracy of examination findings and relevant risk factors in identifying individuals with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), the most common form of glaucoma in North America. DATA SOURCES: Structured Medline (January 1950-January 2013) search and a hand search of references and citations of retrieved articles yielding 57 articles from 41 studies. STUDY SELECTION: Population-based studies of high-level methods relating relevant examination findings of cup-to-disc ratio (CDR), CDR asymmetry, intraocular pressure (IOP), and demographic risk factors to the presence of POAG. RESULTS: The summary prevalence of glaucoma in the highest-quality studies was 2.6% (95% CI, 2.1%-3.1%). Among risk factors evaluated, high myopia (≥6 diopters; odds ratio [OR], 5.7; 95% CI, 3.1-11) and family history (OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.0-5.6) had the strongest association with glaucoma. Black race (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.4-5.9) and increasing age (especially age >80 years; OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.3) were also associated with an increased risk. As CDR increased, the likelihood for POAG increased with a likelihood ratio (LR) of 14 (95% CI, 5.3-39) for CDR of 0.7 or greater. Increasing CDR asymmetry was also associated with an increased likelihood for POAG (CDR asymmetry ≥0.3; LR, 7.3; 95% CI, 3.3-16). No single threshold for CDR or asymmetry ruled out glaucoma. The presence of a disc hemorrhage (LR, 12; 95% CI, 2.9-48) was highly suggestive of glaucoma, but the absence of a hemorrhage was nondiagnostic (LR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83-0.98). At the commonly used cutoff for high IOP (≥22), the LR was 13 (95% CI, 8.2-17), while lower IOP made glaucoma less likely (LR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.55-0.76). We found no studies of screening examinations performed by generalist physicians in a routine setting. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Individual findings of increased CDR, CDR asymmetry, disc hemorrhage, and elevated IOP, as well as demographic risk factors of family history, black race, and advanced age are associated with increased risk for POAG, but their absence does not effectively rule out POAG. The best available data support examination by an ophthalmologist as the most accurate way to detect glaucoma.

Does this adult patient have a blunt intra-abdominal injury?

CONTEXT: Blunt abdominal trauma often presents a substantial diagnostic challenge. Well-informed clinical examination can identify patients who require further diagnostic evaluation for intra-abdominal injuries after blunt abdominal trauma. OBJECTIVE: To systematically assess the precision and accuracy of symptoms, signs, laboratory tests, and bedside imaging studies to identify intra-abdominal injuries in patients with blunt abdominal trauma. DATA SOURCES: We conducted a structured search of MEDLINE (1950-January 2012) and EMBASE (1980-January 2012) to identify English-language studies examining the identification of intra-abdominal injuries. A separate, structured search was conducted for studies evaluating bedside ultrasonography. STUDY SELECTION: We included studies of diagnostic accuracy for intra-abdominal injury that compared at least 1 finding with a reference standard of abdominal computed tomography, diagnostic peritoneal lavage, laparotomy, autopsy, and/or clinical course for intra-abdominal injury. Twelve studies on clinical findings and 22 studies on bedside ultrasonography met inclusion criteria for data extraction. DATA EXTRACTION: Critical appraisal and data extraction were independently performed by 2 authors. DATA SYNTHESIS: The prevalence of intra-abdominal injury in adult emergency department patients with blunt abdominal trauma among all evidence level 1 and 2 studies was 13% (95% CI, 10%-17%), with 4.7% (95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%) requiring therapeutic surgery or angiographic embolization of injuries. The presence of a seat belt sign (likelihood ratio [LR] range, 5.6-9.9), rebound tenderness (LR, 6.5; 95% CI, 1.8-24), hypotension (LR, 5.2; 95% CI, 3.5-7.5), abdominal distention (LR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.9-7.6), or guarding (LR, 3.7; 95% CI, 2.3-5.9) suggest an intra-abdominal injury. The absence of abdominal tenderness to palpation does not rule out an intra-abdominal injury (summary LR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.46-0.80). The presence of intraperitoneal fluid or organ injury on bedside ultrasound assessment is more accurate than any history and physical examination findings (adjusted summary LR, 30; 95% CI, 20-46); conversely, a normal ultrasound result decreases the chance of injury detection (adjusted summary LR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.19-0.34). Test results increasing the likelihood of intra-abdominal injury include a base deficit less than -6 mEq/L (LR, 18; 95% CI, 11-30), elevated liver transaminases (LR range, 2.5-5.2), hematuria (LR range, 3.7-4.1), anemia (LR range, 2.2-3.3), and abnormal chest radiograph (LR range, 2.5-3.8). Symptoms and signs may be most useful in combination, particularly in identification of patients who do not need further diagnostic workup. CONCLUSIONS: Bedside ultrasonography has the highest accuracy of all individual findings, but a normal result does not rule out an intra-abdominal injury. Combinations of clinical findings may be most useful to determine which patients do not require further evaluation, but the ideal combination of variables for identifying patients without intra-abdominal injury requires further study.

Does this patient with liver disease have cirrhosis?

CONTEXT: Among adult patients with liver disease, the ability to identify those most likely to have cirrhosis noninvasively is challenging. OBJECTIVE: To identify simple clinical indicators that can exclude or detect cirrhosis in adults with known or suspected liver disease. DATA SOURCES: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1966 to December 2011) and reference lists from retrieved articles, previous reviews, and physical examination textbooks. STUDY SELECTION: We retained 86 studies of adequate quality that evaluated the accuracy of clinical findings for identifying histologically proven cirrhosis. DATA EXTRACTION: Two authors independently abstracted data (sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios [LRs]) and assessed methodological quality. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to calculate summary LRs across studies. RESULTS: Among the 86 studies, 19,533 patients were included in this meta-analysis, among whom 4725 had biopsy-proven cirrhosis (prevalence rate, 24%; 95% CI, 20%-28%). Many physical examination and simple laboratory tests increase the likelihood of cirrhosis, though the presence of ascites (LR, 7.2; 95% CI, 2.9-12), a platelet count <160 x 10(3)/µL (LR, 6.3; 95% CI, 4.3-8.3), spider nevi (LR, 4.3; 95% CI 2.4-6.2), or a combination of simple laboratory tests with the Bonacini cirrhosis discriminant score >7 (LR, 9.4; 95% CI, 2.6-37) are the most frequently studied, reliable, and informative results. For lowering the likelihood of cirrhosis, the most useful findings are a Lok index <0.2 (a score created from the platelet count, serum aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase, and prothrombin international normalized ratio; LR, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.03-0.31); a platelet count ≥160 x 10(3)/µL (LR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.20-0.39); or the absence of hepatomegaly (LR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.24-0.51). The overall impression of the clinician was not as informative as the individual findings or laboratory combinations. CONCLUSIONS: For identifying cirrhosis, the presence of a variety of clinical findings or abnormalities in a combination of simple laboratory tests that reflect the underlying pathophysiology increase its likelihood. To exclude cirrhosis, combinations of normal laboratory findings are most useful.

Autopsy and grief: a case of transformative postmortem examination.

BACKGROUND: A physician's obligations to deliver compassionate care do not end with a patient's death. When a patient dies there remains a responsibility to assist grieving family members. Unfortunately, many physicians feel ill prepared to assist in the bereavement process, not knowing what to say or how to say it. Although underutilized, the medical autopsy can play an important role in families' grief processes, particularly in those cases wherein uncertainties exist regarding the ultimate cause of death. DISCUSSION: Here we postulate a role for the medical autopsy in assisting families through the grief process, which we demonstrate via an illustrative case. Effective communication of these results to family members is the key to its therapeutic effect.

Acute-onset floaters and flashes: is this patient at risk for retinal detachment?

CONTEXT: Acute onset of monocular floaters and/or flashes represents a common presentation to primary care physicians, and the most likely diagnosis is posterior vitreous detachment (PVD). A significant proportion of patients with acute PVD develop an associated retinal tear that can lead to retinal detachment and permanent vision loss if left untreated. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between relevant clinical variables and risk of retinal tear in patients presenting with acute-onset floaters and/or flashes and PVD. DATA SOURCES: Structured MEDLINE (January 1950-September 2009) and EMBASE (January 1980-September 2009) searches and a hand search of references and citations of retrieved articles yielded 17 relevant studies. STUDY SELECTION: Studies of high-level methods that related elements of the history or physical examination in patients presenting with floaters and/or flashes and PVD to the likelihood of retinal tear. RESULTS: For patients with acute onset of floaters and/or flashes who are self-referred or referred to an ophthalmologist, the prevalence of retinal tear is 14% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12%-16%). Subjective visual reduction is the most important symptom associated with retinal tear (likelihood ratio [LR], 5.0; 95% CI, 3.1-8.1). Vitreous hemorrhage on slitlamp biomicroscopy is the best-studied finding with the narrowest positive LR for retinal tear (summary LR, 10; 95% CI, 5.1-20). Absence of vitreous pigment during this examination is the best-studied finding with the narrowest negative LR (summary LR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.12-0.43). Patients initially diagnosed as having uncomplicated PVD have a 3.4% chance of a retinal tear within 6 weeks. The risk increases with new onset of at least 10 floaters (summary LR, 8.1-36) or subjective visual reduction (summary LR, 2.3-17) during this period. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care physicians should evaluate patients with acute-onset floaters and/or flashes due to suspected PVD, or patients with known PVD and a change in symptoms, for high-risk features of retinal tear and detachment. Physicians should always assess these patients' visual acuity. Patients at increased risk should be triaged for urgent ophthalmologic assessment.

Differences between univariate and bivariate models for summarizing diagnostic accuracy may not be large.

OBJECTIVE: Experts recommend random effects bivariate logitnormal sensitivity and specificity estimates, rather than directly summarized univariate likelihood ratios (LRs) for diagnostic test meta-analyses. We assessed whether bivariate measures might cause different clinical conclusions compared with those from simpler univariate measures. STUDY DESIGN: From two articles that described the benefits of bivariate random effects measures, we reanalyzed results and compared outcomes to univariate random effects summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and LRs. We also reanalyzed data from two published clinical examination studies to assess differences in the two methods. RESULTS: The median difference between bivariate and univariate methods for sensitivity was 1.5% (range: 0-6%) and for specificity was 1.5% (range: 0-4%). Using a pretest probability of 50%, the median difference in posterior probability was 2.5% (interquartile range: 2.2-3.2%, overall range: 0-11%). For sparse data, continuity adjustment affected the differences. Adding 0.5 to each cell of studies containing at least one cell with zero patients provided the most consistent result. CONCLUSIONS: Bivariate estimates of sensitivity and specificity generate summary LRs similar to those derived with univariate methods. Our empiric results suggest that recalculating LRs in published research will not likely create dramatic changes as a function of the random effects measure chosen.

Do opiates affect the clinical evaluation of patients with acute abdominal pain?

CONTEXT: Clinicians have traditionally withheld opiate analgesia from patients with acute abdominal pain until after evaluation by a surgeon, out of concern that analgesia may alter the physical findings and interfere with diagnosis. OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of opiate analgesics on the rational clinical examination and operative decision for patients with acute abdominal pain. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: MEDLINE (through May 2006), EMBASE, and hand searches of article bibliographies to identify placebo-controlled randomized trials of opiate analgesia reporting changes in the history, physical examination findings, or diagnostic errors (those resulting in "management errors," defined as the performance of unnecessary surgery or failure to perform necessary surgery in a timely fashion). DATA EXTRACTION: Two authors independently reviewed each study, abstracted data, and classified study quality. A third reviewer independently resolved discrepancies. DATA SYNTHESIS: Studies both in adults (9 trials) and in children (3 trials) showed trends toward increased risks of altered findings on the abdominal examination due to opiate administration, with risk ratios for changes in the examination of 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85 to 2.69) and 2.11 (95% CI, 0.60 to 7.35), respectively. When the analysis was restricted to the 8 adult and pediatric trials that reported significantly greater analgesia for patients who received opiates compared with those who received placebo, the risk of physical examination changes became significant (risk ratio, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.14 to 3.98). These trials exhibited significant heterogeneity (I2 = 68.6%; P = .002), and only 2 trials distinguished clinically significant changes such as loss of peritoneal signs from all other changes; consequently, we analyzed risk of management errors as a marker for important changes in the physical examination. Opiate administration had no significant association with management errors (+0.3% absolute increase; 95% CI, -4.1% to +4.7%). The 3 pediatric trials showed a nonsignificant absolute decrease in management errors (-0.8%; 95% CI, -8.6% to +6.9%). Across adult and pediatric trials with adequate analgesia, opiate administration was associated with a nonsignificant absolute decrease in the risk of management errors (-0.2%; 95% CI, -4.0% to +3.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Opiate administration may alter the physical examination findings, but these changes result in no significant increase in management errors. The existing literature does not rule out a small increase in errors, but this error rate reflects a conservative definition in which surgeries labeled as either delayed or unnecessary may have met appropriate standards of care. In published research reports, no patient experienced major morbidity or mortality attributable to opiate administration.

Does this patient have myasthenia gravis?

CONTEXT: Clinicians must be able to diagnose myasthenia gravis, since delays in establishing the diagnosis may put patients at risk for complications from this treatable disease. OBJECTIVE: To determine if items in the history and examination or results of simple tests change the likelihood of myasthenia gravis as a diagnosis. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE search of English-language articles (January 1966-January 2005) using the terms myasthenia gravis, diagnosis, and test, and a search of bibliographies of retrieved articles. STUDY SELECTION: Studies evaluating a particular symptom or sign in patients both with and without myasthenia gravis. Of 640 articles retrieved, 33 were eligible for review. Of these, 15 met inclusion criteria and form the basis of this review. DATA EXTRACTION: Two authors independently reviewed each study to determine eligibility, abstracted data using a standardized instrument, and classified study quality using previously published criteria. DATA SYNTHESIS: A history of "speech becoming unintelligible during prolonged speaking" and the presence of the peek sign increase the likelihood of myasthenia gravis (likelihood ratio [LR], 4.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-17.0 and LR, 30.0; 95% CI, 3.2-278.0, respectively). Their absence does not significantly reduce the likelihood of myasthenia gravis. The identified studies only assessed 1 other historical feature and sign each ("food remaining in the mouth after swallowing" and quiver eye movements, respectively), and neither of these significantly changes the likelihood of myasthenia. The ice test is useful when the response is abnormal (summary positive LR, 24.0; 95% CI, 8.5-67.0) and diminishes the likelihood of myasthenia gravis when the response is normal (summary negative LR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.09-0.27). A positive response to an anticholinesterase medication (mainly edrophonium test) increases the probability of a diagnosis of myasthenia gravis (summary positive LR, 15.0; 95% CI, 7.5-31.0), and a negative response reduces the diagnostic probability of myasthenia (summary negative LR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.06-0.21). An abnormal sleep test result is useful in confirming the diagnosis (LR, 53.0; 95% CI, 3.4-832.0). The rest and sleep tests make the probability of myasthenia unlikely when results are normal (LR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.29-0.95 and LR, 0.01; 95% CI, 0.00-0.16, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Items in the history and physical examination along with results of certain simple tests performed in the office (ice test, sleep test, and edrophonium test) are useful in predicting the likelihood of myasthenia gravis. These results must be interpreted with caution, however, given the high prevalence of disease in the populations reported in clinical studies. This review is limited by the small number of signs and symptoms scientifically studied and reported in the literature. Future studies evaluating the value of common historical features and easy maneuvers commonly known and practiced by experts in the clinical diagnosis of myasthenia are needed.

Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia after median sternotomy: clinical utility of blood culture results in the identification of postoperative mediastinitis.

BACKGROUND: Mediastinitis is a complication of coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) that can be difficult to diagnose. This study evaluated the utility of blood culture results in identifying patients with mediastinitis. METHODS AND RESULTS: All unique patients undergoing CABG at our institution over a 60-month study period (n=5500) and all blood cultures performed on these patients or=1 blood culture drawn within 90 days of CABG. Mediastinitis occurred in 46 of 60 (76.7%) patients with blood cultures positive for Staphylococcus aureus, 15 of 126 (11.9%) patients with blood cultures positive for other pathogens, 37 of 669 (5.5%) patients with blood cultures with no growth, and 44 of 4645 (0.9%) patients with no blood cultures obtained. The isolation of S aureus from even 1 blood culture drawn after or=1 blood culture obtained after CABG. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with blood cultures drawn after CABG, S aureus bacteremia strongly suggests the presence of mediastinitis.