How Does Tobacco Use Affect the Cognition of Older Adults? A Propensity Score Matching Analysis Based on a Large-Scale Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco is a well-established risk factor for cancer, but its association with other morbidities needs consideration. The low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) with unprecedented demographic transformation lack evidence on tobacco use and its impact on cognitive health. AIMS AND METHODS: Using a propensity score matching approach, we utilized data from the Longitudinal Ageing Study of India. Study employed 1:1 nearest neighbor matching with the replacement methodology. We estimated the odds of the poor cognitive score and tobacco use among older adults based on five different models for ever tobacco user, former tobacco user, current tobacco user, current smokers, and current smokeless tobacco users with reference to never tobacco users. RESULTS: The estimated average treatment effect for the treated and the untreated group has shown a higher likelihood of cognitive decline among ever (OR -0.26; 95%CI -0.43 to -0.09), current (OR -0.28; 95%CI -0.45 to -0.10), and former (OR -0.53; 95%CI -0.87 to -0.19) tobacco users compared to never tobacco users. The finding further suggests the odds of lower cognitive scores among older adults who were smokers (OR -0.53; 95%CI -0.87 to -0.19) and smokeless tobacco users (OR -0.22; 95%CI -0.43 to -0.01) as compared to never tobacco users. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions designed to prevent the incidence of cognitive impairment should focus on limiting the use of tobacco. Strategies under the tobacco-free generation initiative should be amplified in order to prevent future generations from productivity loss, premature ageing and to promote healthy aging. IMPLICATIONS: Evidence of a definitive association between tobacco consumption and cognition among older adults is sporadic in LMICs. Though tobacco is a risk factor for various diseases including cancer, the extent of its impact on cognitive health among the older population is limited. This study contributes to the existing literature by highlighting poor cognitive outcomes among older adults who smoke tobacco and/or consume smokeless tobacco as compared to never-tobacco users. Our findings emphasize the need to accelerate programmes related to tobacco-free generation in LMICs to reach a higher quality of life and healthy aging in pursuit of achieving the sustainable development goal of "good health and well-being."

Trends in age of tobacco use initiation over time in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan: analysis of cross-sectional nationally representative surveys.

OBJECTIVE: Tobacco use begins at an early age and typically leads to a long-term addiction. The age of initiation for tobacco use is not well studied in South Asia, where 22% of tobacco smokers and 81% of smokeless tobacco (SLT) users reside. METHODS: Data from the nationally representative Global Adult Tobacco Surveys in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan were analysed to examine patterns of initiation among smokers and smokeless tobacco users. RESULTS: Data on 94 651 individuals were analysed, of which 13 396 reported were ever daily smokers and 17 684 were ever SLT users. The proportion of individuals initiating tobacco use before the age of 15 years has increased over time. The rates of SLT initiation among those aged 15-24 years increased markedly in Bangladesh (by 7.8%) and Pakistan (by 37.7%) between 1983 and 1999-2000. Among males, the increase in SLT initiation was higher in individuals aged below 15 years compared with other age groups in India and Bangladesh. Smoking initiation among females aged below 15 years has also significantly increased in India over time. Compared with the initiation of tobacco smoking before the age of 15 years, a greater increase in the proportion of SLT users was observed in urban areas. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that the proportion of youth initiating tobacco (both smoking and smokeless) before the age of 15 years has increased over time in all three countries. Moreover, variations in age at initiation for different types of tobacco products across countries, and by rurality, were noticeable. Younger youths (aged up to 15 years) should therefore be a priority population for tobacco control interventions. Strategies such as raising the legal age of tobacco sale and use to 21 years, and, other measures under WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), may prevent underage use and avert lifelong addiction to tobacco products.

Determinants of initiation, continuation and cessation of smokeless tobacco use among pregnant and lactating women: a qualitative study from low-income communities in urban India.

Smokeless tobacco (SLT) consumption increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases and cancer and leads to adverse reproductive health outcomes among women and newborns. This study examines the factors associated with initiation, continuation and cessation of SLT use among women in the reproductive age so as to formulate and include prevention and cessation interventions from its inception. The study was conducted in urban low-income communities in India. Using snowball and purposive sampling techniques, in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 pregnant and 22 lactating women who currently used SLT products. Data were analysed using thematic analysis with the help of QSR NVivo software. Findings revealed that factors such as people influencing usage change with different life stages including pre-marital and post-marital periods. Perceived health benefits, altered taste preferences during pregnancy and social influences were also studied. Women were found to be more aware of the harmful effects of tobacco during pregnancy than during breastfeeding. Social stigma around women consuming tobacco acted as a major driving factor for cessation. Most of the participants were willing to quit but were not aware of any technique or programme for cessation. The findings of the study highlight the need to develop behavioural change intervention tools, which are culturally and locally appropriate and have a gender-sensitive approach. Different socio-cultural factors associated with initiation/cessation at different life stages should also be taken into consideration while developing these tools.

Smokeless Tobacco Use and Cessation Attempts during COVID-19 Lockdown: A Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Smokeless tobacco (SLT) use among women is widely prevalent in Manipur state accounting for 45% users as per Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS)-2 India. Studies from India and elsewhere indicate changes in the way people used SLT during COVID-19 lockdown. This study explores individual and economic influences on SLT consumption and cessation attempts by tribal women in Manipur during the first COVID-19 lockdown (March-June, 2020) in India. METHODS: Twenty in-depth interviews, both in-person and telephonically, were conducted among tribal women from Imphal west, Manipur, India, who used any SLT, from April to September 2020. Objective of the study was to understand the use, factors associated with consumption, purchasing behaviors, and cessation attempts of SLT during the lockdown. Thematic content analysis was used to identify core themes and codes. RESULTS: Study participants reported of changes in current SLT use during restrictions imposed to contain COVID-19 pandemic in India. Majority reported of reduction or quit attempts in SLT use. Reasons included inaccessibility due to travel restrictions, limited availability and price rise of SLT products, fear of COVID-19, and disposable income for purchase of SLT products. However, a few women reported of increased consumption due to bulk purchasing, or switching to other SLT products as a result of unavailability or price rise of preferred products or to cope up with social isolation caused by the lockdown. CONCLUSION: Study findings on factors influencing quit attempts and strategies used for reducing SLT use by tribal women in Imphal, Manipur provide valuable insights for development of appropriate intervention for prevention of SLT use among women.

Smokeless tobacco use and public health nutrition: a global systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Tobacco consumption among low- and middle-income countries where food insecurity remains a challenge poses several concerns. This review examines the available global evidence linking smokeless tobacco (SLT) use with public health nutrition and its implications. DESIGN: Systematic review of articles extracted from PubMed and Scopus from January 2000 to December 2020. SETTING: Included studies that demonstrated the relationship between SLT and nutrition-related factors, that is, BMI, malnutrition, anaemia, poor birth outcomes and metabolic disorders. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines have been followed to conduct the systematic evidence review. PARTICIPANTS: A total of thirty-four studies were finally used in the systematic review, which included cross-sectional (thirty-one) and cohort (three). RESULTS: SLT use has a huge impact on body weight, alteration in taste, poor oral health, and consumption of fruits and vegetables leading to malnutrition. Maternal use of SLT not only leads to anaemia but also hampers birth outcomes. Increased risk of metabolic syndrome and gallstone disease among SLT users are also well documented in the studies. CONCLUSION: The review highlights the linkages between SLT usage and poor nutritional outcomes. Tobacco control efforts should be convergent with public health nutrition to achieve overall health benefits. Attention is also required to explore suitable mechanisms for SLT cessation combined with enhancing food and nutrition security at the community level in sync with investments in public health nutrition intervention.

Social desirability and under-reporting of smokeless tobacco use among reproductive age women: Evidence from National Family Health Survey.

Introduction: This study hypothesises that the presence of a third person during the interaction between the survey investigator and the woman respondent leads to underreporting of smokeless tobacco (SLT) use by Indian women, including pregnant and breastfeeding women. Methods: Cross-sectional data from the National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015-16 was analysed for SLT use among women aged 15-49. Multivariate logistic regression examined the odds of SLT use reporting by women respondents in the presence of their husbands and other male or female adults. Results: SLT use reporting by women significantly varied by the presence of someone during the interview. The analysis shows that the odds of reporting SLT use among women who were neither pregnant nor lactating was 20.6% lower when they were interviewed in the presence of their husbands than when they were interviewed alone. Similarly, compared to those interviewed alone, the odds of women reporting SLT use was 16.5% lower among pregnant and breastfeeding women interviewed in the presence of any adult female. The odds of women under-reporting SLT use were higher in Central and Western India. Conclusions: This study argues that the current survey estimates misconstrue the authentic prevalence of tobacco use among women in India, including pregnant and lactating women. Due to social desirability or the presence of a third person during the survey interview, those respondents who do not report their tobacco use status are also more likely to forego essential support for successful tobacco cessation. Survey methodology must be strengthened to avert the presence of a third person during the interview to ensure better reporting and population health estimates.

Prevalence of smoking and smokeless tobacco use during breastfeeding: A cross-sectional secondary data analysis based on 0.32 million sample women in 78 low-income and middle-income countries.

Background: Smoking and smokeless tobacco use during the postpartum period is well studied in high-income countries, whereas low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack evidence. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in 78 LMICs between January 2010 and December 2019 to study tobacco use among 0.32 million sample lactating women. Age-standardized prevalence of smoking and smokeless tobacco use was estimated and presented with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) for 78 LMICs. Pooled estimates overall and by WHO regions were obtained using random-effects meta-analyses. Country-level and community-level variance to understand contextual factors was also quantified using multilevel modelling. Findings: Pooled prevalence of any tobacco use among breastfeeding women in LMICs was 3.61% (95% CI 3.53-3.70); with the lowest prevalence in regions of the Americas (1.44%, 1.26-1.63) and the highest in the Southeast Asia region (6.13%, 6.0-6.27). The pooled prevalence of tobacco smoking was reported to be 1.16% (1.11-1.21), with the highest prevalence in the Eastern Mediterranean region (4.27%, 3.88-4.67) and the lowest in the African region (0.81%, 0.76-0.86). The pooled prevalence of smokeless tobacco use was reported to be 2.56% (2.49-2.63), with the highest prevalence in the Southeast Asia region (4.92%, 4.80-5.04). Illiterate and poor women in LMICs bore the enormous burden of tobacco use. Interpretation: The prevalence of smoking and smokeless tobacco use among lactating women in LMICs varied considerably across different WHO regions. Considering the cross-sectional design of the study, caution is required while interpreting the results. To improve mothers' and children's health and nutrition outcomes and reduce health inequalities in LMICs, reducing tobacco use through evidence-based interventions is critical. Funding: None.

Mixed Effect of Alcohol, Smoking, and Smokeless Tobacco Use on Hypertension among Adult Population in India: A Nationally Representative Cross-Sectional Study.

Sporadic evidence is available on the association of consuming multiple substances with the risk of hypertension among adults in India where there is a substantial rise in cases. This study assesses the mutually exclusive and mixed consumption patterns of alcohol, tobacco smoking and smokeless tobacco use and their association with hypertension among the adult population in India. Nationally representative samples of men and women drawn from the National Family and Health Survey (2015-2016) were analyzed. A clinical blood pressure measurement above 140 mmHg (systolic blood pressure) and 90 mmHg (diastolic blood pressure) was considered in the study as hypertension. Association between mutually exclusive categories of alcohol, tobacco smoking and smokeless tobacco and hypertension were examined using multivariate binary logistic regression models. Daily consumption of alcohol among male smokeless tobacco users had the highest likelihood to be hypertensive (OR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.99-2.71) compared to the no-substance-users. Women who smoked, and those who used any smokeless tobacco with a daily intake of alcohol had 71% (OR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.14-2.56) and 51% (OR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.25-1.82) higher probability of being hypertensive compared to the no-substance-users, respectively. In order to curb the burden of hypertension among the population, there is a need for an integrated and more focused intervention addressing the consumption behavior of alcohol and tobacco.

Smokeless Tobacco Use among Pregnant Women in India: The Tale of Two Nationally Representative Surveys.

The prevalence of smokeless tobacco (SLT) is pervasive in many Asian countries, including India. SLT use among pregnant women is markedly high, and is considered to be a global concern. Consequently, the associated health effects of SLT consumption on pregnant women and the foetus cause long-term adverse effects. Therefore, this article aims to understand the extent of deviation in SLT use estimates among Indian pregnant women based on two nationally representative surveys and its implications. Responses of 1,403 pregnant women were recorded in the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS 2016-17), whereas 184,641 pregnant women were interviewed in the fourth round of the Demographic and Health Survey or the National Family Health Survey (DHS NFHS 2015-16). Considerable differences in SLT use patterns among pregnant women between the GATS-2 and the NFHS-4 was evident. Overall, the prevalence of SLT use among pregnant women was reported to be higher in GATS than NFHS and this pattern remains similar between age groups of 15 to 34. In the absence of reliable estimates of SLT use among pregnant women, its adverse implications for both reproductive, maternal and child health policies, tobacco control efforts and data quality issues need to be acknowledged and addressed in a targeted manner.

Does secondhand smoke exposure increase the risk of acute respiratory infections among children aged 0-59 months in households that use clean cooking fuel? A cross-sectional study based on 601 509 households in India.

This study examines whether exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) increases the risk of acute respiratory infections (ARI) among children aged 0-59 months. Study utilized nationally representative data from National Family Health Survey (2015-2016), which adopted two-stage stratified random sampling. Four mutually exclusive groups based on the type of cooking fuel usage and SHS exposure were created. Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistics regression analysis were applied. At the national level, 10.5% prevalence of ARI was reported during 2015-2016. About 47.9% (95%CI 47.7-48.2) of households was exposed to SHS and used solid biomass fuel for cooking. Nearly, 20.7% of households with clean fuel usage was exposed to SHS. Regression analysis suggests that the likelihood of ARI among children who were living in households with solid biomass fuel usage and exposed to SHS was 11% (95%CI 1.06-1.17) greater than children living in households with clean fuel usage with no SHS exposure. Moreover, our results further revealed that the odds of ARI among children living in households with clean fuel but exposed to SHS were 19% (95%CI 1.13-1.25) higher than the children living in the household with no SHS exposure and clean fuel use. Children living in households exposed to SHS are at higher risk of ARI.

Predictors of smokeless tobacco use among the adult population of north-east India during 2009-2017: A decomposition analysis.

Background & objectives: Contrary to overall declining trend in smokeless tobacco (SLT) use in India, an increase is observed in north-east (NE) India. This study examined the predictors of daily SLT use by gender and assessed the demographic and socio-economic characteristics that contribute to gender differences in SLT use in NE India. Methods: Data collected from 15,259 and 13,574 adults in the two rounds of Global Tobacco Adult Survey 1 and 2 for NE India during 2009-2010 and 2016-2017 were analyzed. Relative change, multivariable binary logistic regression and Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis were used for analysis. Results: The findings suggest that among women in NE India, the daily SLT use significantly increased by 58 per cent between 2009-2010 to 2016-2017. Women residing in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura were 3.5 and 2.5 times, respectively more likely to be daily SLT users compared to those in Assam. While age, education and wealth were the significant predictors of SLT use in both women and men, increased odds of SLT use were observed with women's type of occupation and the State of residence. The majority of the gender differences in daily SLT use was explained by differences in work status (44%), age (26%), education (14%) and wealth status (9%) between men and women. Interpretation & conclusions: Increasing prevalence of SLT use amongst women in the NE States necessitates integration of gender-specific messages on harmful effects of SLT in the ongoing tobacco control programmes and development of culturally appropriate community-based interventions for cessation of SLT use.

Smokeless tobacco quitting during COVID-19: A mixed-methods pilot study among participants screened for a cessation trial in India.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 and subsequent country-wide lockdown has impacted smokeless tobacco (SLT) product availability in India. We aimed to examine SLT quitting during COVID-19 lockdown among SLT users who consented to be enrolled in a cessation programme. METHODS: Between January-March 2020, we screened 227 exclusive SLT users to be enrolled in a randomized-controlled feasibility study on SLT cessation. However, all activities were suspended due to national lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. To examine the quitting intention and behaviour during COVID-19 lockdown, we re-contacted these individuals telephonically; during September-October 2020. RESULTS: Of 227 participants, 87 (38.3%) could not be contacted on phone. We conducted telephonic qualitative interviews and assessed the SLT use status, willingness to quit and participate in the SLT cessation trial among the remaining 140 participants. Among these, 12.1% (17/140) showed no willingness to participate in the study due to migration. Since COVID-19 lockdown, 32.1% (45/140) participants reported quitting SLT due to non-availability, increased cost of products, shifts in community norms and family pressures. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 pandemic presented an opportunity for tobacco cessation as stringent bans and isolation from social circles enabled tobacco cessation. It also triggered improvement in dissemination of public health information at an unprecedented scale, particularly related to the vulnerability of tobacco users to co-morbidities and harm from SARS CoV-2 infection. Implementation of strict bans on sale and consumption of SLT and strengthening of cessation support may lead to sustainable tobacco control. This study provides insight into effective policy strategies to reduce SLT use; which need to be substantiated with adequate cessation support.

Areca nut consumption with and without tobacco among the adult population: a nationally representative study from India.

OBJECTIVE: Areca nut is one of the most widely consumed substances globally, after nicotine, ethanol and caffeine and classified as carcinogenic to humans. This study examines the disparity and determinants of areca nut consumption with and without tobacco in India. DESIGN: Nationally representative cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: We used the nationally representative Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2016-2017. The analytical sample size was 74 037 individual's aged 15 years and above with a response rate of 92.9%. MEASURES: Current consumption of areca nut without tobacco and with tobacco. METHOD: We examined determinants of areca nut consumption (without tobacco and with tobacco) using multinomial logistic regression, accounting for the survey design. RESULTS: About 23.9% (95% CI 23.1 to 24.8) of the adult population consume areca nut, that is, approximately 223.79 million people in India; majority of users (14.2%-95% CI 13.5 to 14.9) consumed areca nut with tobacco. When compared with women, men were more likely to consume areca nut (with tobacco relative risk (RR)=2.02; 95% CI 1.85 to 2.21 and without tobacco RR=1.13; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.20). Age, marital status, education, occupation, caste, religion and region were significantly associated with areca nut consumption. However, the direction and magnitude of association differ with respect to the areca nut consumption with and without tobacco. CONCLUSION: The ongoing tobacco control efforts would not address the majority of areca nut users until greater attention to areca nut consumption with and without tobacco is reflected in health policies in India.

Mapping the triple burden of smoking, smokeless tobacco and alcohol consumption among adults in 28,521 communities across 640 districts of India: A sex-stratified multilevel cross-sectional study.

National estimates on tobacco and alcohol consumption are insufficient to guide policy at the sub-national level. This study assessed the sex-stratified prevalence of different types of smoking and smokeless tobacco and alcohol consumption among adults aged 15-49 using the National Family Health Survey (2015-16) at sub-national administrative units. Three-level logistic regression models were applied to quantify the variation at district- and community-level in smoking and consumption of smokeless tobacco and alcohol. A higher prevalence of smoking, smokeless tobacco and alcohol consumption was observed among men. The study found that the considerable unexplained variations in two different forms of tobacco and alcohol consumption among men attributed to between-population differences at district-level and community-level. The between-population differences were even larger at the district- and community-level in tobacco and alcohol consumption among women. Continious assessment of tobacco and alcohol consumption at lower administrative units and the development of evidence-based localised cessation interventions must be integrated with health policy to reduce disease burden and preventable deaths.

Capacity building of primary care physicians of the tea garden hospitals in Dibrugarh, Assam: A demonstration project.

BACKGROUND: The three most commonly occurring cancers in India are those of the breast, uterine cervix, and lip or oral cavity, together accounting for approximately 34% of all cancers. All the three cancers are amenable to prevention, early detection, and treatment through which the morbidity and mortality due to these cancers can be reduced. This pilot study was conducted to assess the operational feasibility of the national cancer screening guidelines. METHOD: This study was conducted in the Dibrugarh district of Assam in seven tea garden hospitals which serve as the primary health centers for the tea estate population in the Northeast region of India. The study intervention was a three-day training package designed to train primary care physicians in population-based screening for oral, breast, and cervical cancers. Knowledge evaluation and skill assessment were performed with a validated questionnaire and checklist, respectively. RESULTS: Pre and posttraining knowledge assessment showed significant gain in the knowledge levels of the participants in all topics. The greatest knowledge increase was seen in breast cancer (96.3%), followed by cervical cancer (57.5%), oral cancer (35.5%) and general cancer-related information (16.7%). The skill assessment done for each participant individually at the end of the training indicated a need for retraining all participants in breast cancer screening. CONCLUSION: The learnings from this study will be of great help in scaling up the capacity building programme for cancer screening when the nation-wide population-based cancer screening programme will be rolled out in the country.

Public health interventions to improve maternal nutrition during pregnancy: a nationally representative study of iron and folic acid consumption and food supplements in India.

OBJECTIVE: Despite a reduction in maternal mortality in recent years, a high rate of anaemia and other nutrient inadequacies during pregnancy pose a serious threat to mothers and their children in the Global South. Using the framework of the WHO-Commission on Social Determinants of Health, this study examines the socioeconomic, programmatic and contextual factors associated with the consumption of iron and folic acid (IFA) tablets/syrup for at least 100 d (IFA100) and receiving supplementary food (SF) by pregnant women in India. DESIGN: We analysed a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of over 190 898 ever-married women aged 15-49 years who were interviewed as part of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted during 2015-16, who had at least one live birth preceding 5 years of the survey. SETTING: All twenty-nine states and seven union territories of India. PARTICIPANTS: Ever-married women aged 15-49 years. RESULTS: Less than one-third of women were found to be consuming IFA100, and a little over half received SF during their last pregnancy. The consumption of IFA100 was likely to improve with women's education, household wealth, early and more prenatal visits, and in a community with high pregnancy registration. Higher parity, early and more prenatal visits, contact with community health workers during pregnancy, belonging to a poor household and living in an aggregated poor community and rural area positively determine whether a woman might receive SF during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous monitoring and evaluation of provisioning IFA and SF in targeted groups and communities is a key to expanding the coverage and reducing the burden of undernutrition during pregnancy.

Social determinants of dual tobacco use in India: An analysis based on the two rounds of global adult tobacco survey.

This study examines the socioeconomic determinants of dual use of smoked and smokeless tobacco (SLT) in India between 2009-10 and 2016-17. Data from two rounds of the nationally representative cross-sectional Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) conducted in 2009-10 and 2016-17 was used. Complete sample size from both rounds of survey covering 143,333 individuals (GATS I: 69,296 and GATS II: 74,037) from 153,239 households (GATS I: 76,069 and GATS II: 77,170) included in the study. Dual use was assessed based on current smoked and SLT users in both rounds. Bivariate analysis was applied to assess differences in dual tobacco use by socioeconomic status (SES) and across regions, whereas, pooled sampled analysis was conducted to examine the determinants of dual use applying multinomial logistic regression model. Findings reveal that dual use has declined in India from nearly 5% in 2009-10 to 3.4% in 2016-17. Considerable regional and SES differences in dual use are evident. Multivariate results indicate, while age is positively associated with dual use, education and household wealth was negatively associated. Dual use of tobacco was found to be considerably higher among men as compared to women (RRR: 15.66, 95%CI 14.20-17.27). Awareness about the adverse health consequences of tobacco was also negatively associated with dual tobacco use (RRR: 0.56, 95%CI 0.50-0.64). Future awareness and enforcement efforts should focus on all forms of tobacco, especially targeting vulnerable SE groups.

National Burden Estimates of healthy life lost in India, 2017: an analysis using direct mortality data and indirect disability data.

BACKGROUND: Many countries, including India, seek locally constructed disease burden estimates comprising mortality and loss of health to aid priority setting for the prevention and treatment of diseases. We created the National Burden Estimates (NBE) to provide transparent and understandable disease burdens at the national and subnational levels, and to identify gaps in knowledge. METHODS: To calculate the NBE for India, we combined 2017 UN death totals with national and subnational mortality rates for 2010-17 and causes of death from 211 166 verbal autopsy interviews in the Indian Million Death Study for 2010-14. We calculated years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 2017 using published YLD-YLL ratios from WHO Global Health Estimates. We grouped causes of death into 45 groups, including ill-defined deaths, and summed YLLs and YLDs to calculate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for these causes in eight age groups covering rural and urban areas and 21 major states of India. FINDINGS: In 2017, there were about 9·7 million deaths and 486 million DALYs in India. About three quarters of deaths and DALYs occurred in rural areas. More than a third of national DALYs arose from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders. DALY rates in rural areas were at least twice those of urban areas for perinatal and nutritional conditions, chronic respiratory diseases, diarrhoea, and fever of unknown origin. DALY rates for ischaemic heart disease were greater in urban areas. Injuries caused 11·4% of DALYs nationally. The top 15 conditions that accounted for the most DALYs were mostly those causing mortality (ischaemic heart disease, perinatal conditions, chronic respiratory diseases, diarrhoea, respiratory infections, cancer, stroke, road traffic accidents, tuberculosis, and liver and alcohol-related conditions), with disability mostly due to a few conditions (nutritional deficiencies, neuropsychiatric conditions, vision and other sensory loss, musculoskeletal disorders, and genitourinary diseases). Every condition that was common in one part of India was uncommon elsewhere, suggesting state-specific priorities for disease control. INTERPRETATION: The NBE method quantifies disease burden using transparent, intuitive, and reproducible methods. It provides a simple, locally operable tool to aid policy makers in priority setting in India and other low-income and middle-income countries. The NBE underlines the need for many more countries to collect nationally representative cause of death data, paired with focused surveys of disability. FUNDING: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Socioeconomic determinants of chronic health diseases among older Indian adults: a nationally representative cross-sectional multilevel study.

OBJECTIVE: Study uses multilevel modelling to examine the effect of individual, household and contextual characteristics on chronic diseases among older Indian adults. DESIGN: Nationally representative cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Data from the nationally representative, India Human Development Survey conducted in 2011-2012 was used in this study. The survey asked information related to the diagnosed chronic illnesses such as cataract, tuberculosis, hypertension, heart disease and others. The sample size of this study comprised 39 493 individuals who belonged to the age group 50 years and above. MEASURES: Self-reported diagnosed chronic illness. METHOD: Considering the hierarchal structure of the data multilevel logistic regression analysis was applied to attain the study objective. RESULTS: Older adults aged 80 years and older were found with three times more chances (OR: 3.99, 95% CI 2.91 to 5.48) of suffering from a chronic ailment than 50-54 years old. Lifestyle risk factors such as alcohol and tobacco (smoked and smokeless) consumption were noted to be significantly associated with the presence of chronic illness whereas older adults who have never consumed smokeless tobacco stood 20% fewer chances (OR: 0.80, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.94) of having any chronic illness. Contextual level variables such as older adults residing in the rural areas were found with 17% fewer chances (OR: 0.83, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.97) of suffering from a chronic illness. CONCLUSION: Even after controlling for various characteristics at the individual, household and contextual levels, significant variations in chronic illness remain unexplained at the community and state level, respectively. The findings of this study could effectively be utilised to consider more contextual variables to examine the chronic health status among the growing older population of India.

Sustained progress, but no room for complacency: Results of 2015 HIV estimations in India.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Evidence-based planning has been the cornerstone of India's response to HIV/AIDS. Here we describe the process, method and tools used for generating the 2015 HIV estimates and provide a summary of the main results. METHODS: Spectrum software supported by the UNAIDS was used to produce HIV estimates for India as a whole and its States/Union Territories. This tool takes into consideration the size and HIV prevalence of defined population groups and programme data to estimate HIV prevalence, incidence and mortality over time as well as treatment needs. RESULTS: India's national adult prevalence of HIV was 0.26 per cent in 2015. Of the 2.1 million people living with HIV/AIDS, the largest numbers were in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. New HIV infections were an estimated 86,000 in 2015, reflecting a decline by around 32 per cent from 2007. The declining trend in incidence was mirrored in most States, though an increasing trend was detected in Assam, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Sikkim, Tripura and Uttar Pradesh. AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 67,600 in 2015, reflecting a 54 per cent decline from 2007. There were variations in the rate and trend of decline across India for this indicator also. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS: While key indicators measured through Spectrum modelling confirm success of the National AIDS Control Programme, there is no room for complacency as rising incidence trends in some geographical areas and population pockets remain the cause of concern. Progress achieved so far in responding to HIV/AIDS needs to be sustained to end the HIV epidemic.