Multi-institutional Validation of Improved Vesicoureteral Reflux Assessment With Simple and Machine Learning Approaches.

PURPOSE: Vesicoureteral reflux grading from voiding cystourethrograms is highly subjective with low reliability. We aimed to demonstrate improved reliability for vesicoureteral reflux grading with simple and machine learning approaches using ureteral tortuosity and dilatation on voiding cystourethrograms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Voiding cystourethrograms were collected from our institution for training and 5 external data sets for validation. Each voiding cystourethrogram was graded by 5-7 raters to determine a consensus vesicoureteral reflux grade label and inter- and intra-rater reliability was assessed. Each voiding cystourethrogram was assessed for 4 features: ureteral tortuosity, proximal, distal, and maximum ureteral dilatation. The labels were then assigned to the combination of the 4 features. A machine learning-based model, qVUR, was trained to predict vesicoureteral reflux grade from these features and model performance was assessed by AUROC (area under the receiver-operator-characteristic). RESULTS: A total of 1,492 kidneys and ureters were collected from voiding cystourethrograms resulting in a total of 8,230 independent gradings. The internal inter-rater reliability for vesicoureteral reflux grading was 0.44 with a median percent agreement of 0.71 and low intra-rater reliability. Higher values for each feature were associated with higher vesicoureteral reflux grade. qVUR performed with an accuracy of 0.62 (AUROC=0.84) with stable performance across all external data sets. The model improved vesicoureteral reflux grade reliability by 3.6-fold compared to traditional grading (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In a large pediatric population from multiple institutions, we show that machine learning-based assessment for vesicoureteral reflux improves reliability compared to current grading methods. qVUR is generalizable and robust with similar accuracy to clinicians but the added prognostic value of quantitative measures warrants further study.

Posterior Urethral Valves Outcomes Prediction (PUVOP): a machine learning tool to predict clinically relevant outcomes in boys with posterior urethral valves.

BACKGROUND: Early kidney and anatomic features may be predictive of future progression and need for additional procedures in patients with posterior urethral valve (PUV). The objective of this study was to use machine learning (ML) to predict clinically relevant outcomes in these patients. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with PUV with kidney function measurements at our institution between 2000 and 2020 were included. Pertinent clinical measures were abstracted, including estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at each visit, initial vesicoureteral reflux grade, and renal dysplasia at presentation. ML models were developed to predict clinically relevant outcomes: progression in CKD stage, initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT), and need for clean-intermittent catheterization (CIC). Model performance was assessed by concordance index (c-index) and the model was externally validated. RESULTS: A total of 103 patients were included with a median follow-up of 5.7 years. Of these patients, 26 (25%) had CKD progression, 18 (17%) required KRT, and 32 (31%) were prescribed CIC. Additionally, 22 patients were included for external validation. The ML model predicted CKD progression (c-index = 0.77; external C-index = 0.78), KRT (c-index = 0.95; external C-index = 0.89) and indicated CIC (c-index = 0.70; external C-index = 0.64), and all performed better than Cox proportional-hazards regression. The models have been packaged into a simple easy-to-use tool, available at https://share.streamlit.io/jcckwong/puvop/main/app.py CONCLUSION: ML-based approaches for predicting clinically relevant outcomes in PUV are feasible. Further validation is warranted, but this implementable model can act as a decision-making aid. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

A machine learning-based approach for quantitative grading of vesicoureteral reflux from voiding cystourethrograms: Methods and proof of concept.

INTRODUCTION: The objectivity of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) grading has come into question for low inter-rater reliability. Using quantitative image features to aid in VUR grading may make it more consistent. OBJECTIVE: To develop a novel quantitative approach to the assignment of VUR from voiding cystourethrograms (VCUG) alone. STUDY DESIGN: An online dataset of VCUGs was abstracted and individual renal units were graded as low-grade (I-III) or high-grade (IV-V). We developed an image analysis and machine learning workflow to automatically calculate and normalize the ureteropelvic junction (UPJ) width, ureterovesical junction (UVJ) width, maximum ureter width, and tortuosity of the ureter based on three simple user annotations. A random forest classifier was trained to distinguish between low-vs high-grade VUR. An external validation cohort was generated from the institutional imaging repository. Discriminative capability was quantified using receiver-operating-characteristic and precision-recall curve analysis. We used Shapley Additive exPlanations to interpret the model's predictions. RESULTS: 41 renal units were abstracted from an online dataset, and 44 renal units were collected from the institutional imaging repository. Significant differences observed in UVJ width, UPJ width, maximum ureter width, and tortuosity between low- and high-grade VUR. A random-forest classifier performed favourably with an accuracy of 0.83, AUROC of 0.90 and AUPRC of 0.89 on leave-one-out cross-validation, and accuracy of 0.84, AUROC of 0.88 and AUPRC of 0.89 on external validation. Tortuosity had the highest feature importance, followed by maximum ureter width, UVJ width, and UPJ width. We deployed this tool as a web-application, qVUR (quantitative VUR), where users are able to upload any VCUG for automated grading using the model generated here (https://akhondker.shinyapps.io/qVUR/). DISCUSSION: This study provides the first step towards creating an automated and more objective standard for determining the significance of VUR features. Our findings suggest that tortuosity and ureter dilatation are predictors of high-grade VUR. Moreover, this proof-of-concept model was deployed in a simple-to-use web application. CONCLUSION: Grading of VUR using quantitative metrics is possible, even in non-standardized datasets of VCUG. Machine learning methods can be applied to objectively grade VUR in the future.