Low levels of small HDL particles predict but do not influence risk of sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Low levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol have been associated with higher rates and severity of infection. Alterations in inflammatory mediators and infection are associated with alterations in HDL cholesterol. It is unknown whether the association between HDL and infection is present for all particle sizes, and whether the observed associations are confounded by IL-6 signalling. METHODS: In the UK Biobank, ~ 270,000 individuals have data on HDL subclasses derived from nuclear magnetic resonance analysis. We estimated the association of particle count of total HDL and HDL subclasses (small, medium, large, and extra-large HDL) with sepsis, sepsis-related death, and critical care admission in a Cox regression model. We subsequently utilised genetic data from UK Biobank and FinnGen to perform Mendelian randomisation (MR) of each HDL subclass and sepsis to test for a causal relationship. Finally, we explored the role of IL-6 signalling as a potential causal driver of changes in HDL subclasses. RESULTS: In observational analyses, higher particle count of small HDL was associated with protection from sepsis (Hazard ratio, HR 0.80; 95% CI 0.74-0.86, p = 4 × 10-9 comparing Quartile 4, highest quartile of HDL to Quartile 1, lowest quartile of HDL), sepsis-related death (HR 0.80; 95% CI 0.74-0.86, p = 2 × 10-4), and critical care admission with sepsis (HR 0.72 95% CI 0.60-0.85, p = 2 × 10-4). Parallel associations with other HDL subclasses were likely driven by changes in the small HDL compartment. MR analyses did not strongly support causality of small HDL particle count on sepsis incidence (Odds ratio, OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.89-1.07, p = 0.6) or death (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.75-1.17, p = 0.56), although the estimate on critical care admission with sepsis supported protection (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.95, p = 0.02). Bidirectional MR analyses suggested that increased IL-6 signalling was associated with reductions in both small (beta on small HDL particle count - 0.16, 95% CI - 0.10 to - 0.21 per natural log change in SD-scaled CRP, p = 9 × 10-8).and total HDL particle count (beta - 0.13, 95% CI - 0.09 to - 0.17, p = 7 × 10-10), but that the reverse effect of HDL on IL-6 signalling was largely null. CONCLUSIONS: Low number of small HDL particles are associated with increased hazard of sepsis, sepsis-related death, and sepsis-related critical care admission. However, genetic analyses did not strongly support this as causal. Instead, we demonstrate that increased IL-6 signalling, which is known to alter infection risk, could confound associations with reduced HDL particle count, and suggest this may explain part of the observed association between (small) HDL particle count and sepsis.

The mediating role of mammographic density in the protective effect of early-life adiposity on breast cancer risk: a multivariable Mendelian randomization study.

Observational studies suggest that mammographic density (MD) may have a role in the unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk. Here, we investigated a complex and interlinked relationship between puberty onset, adiposity, MD, and their effects on breast cancer using Mendelian randomization (MR). We estimated the effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity, and age at menarche on MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)) using MR and multivariable MR (MVMR), allowing us to disentangle their total and direct effects. Next, we examined the effect of MD on breast cancer risk, including risk of molecular subtypes, and accounting for genetic pleiotropy. Finally, we used MVMR to evaluate whether the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer was mediated by MD. Childhood adiposity had a strong inverse effect on mammographic DA, while adulthood adiposity increased NDA. Later menarche had an effect of increasing DA and PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect attenuated to the null. DA and PD had a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) estimates were extremely heterogeneous, and examination of the SNPs suggested different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, MR mediation analysis estimated that 56% (95% CIs [32% - 79%]) of the childhood adiposity effect on breast cancer risk was mediated via DA. In this work, we sought to disentangle the relationship between factors affecting MD and breast cancer. We showed that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, which subsequently leads to reduced breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is of great importance for identifying potential targets of intervention, since advocating weight gain in childhood would not be recommended.

From plasma triglycerides to triglyceride metabolism: effects on mortality in the Copenhagen General Population Study.

AIMS: It is unclear whether higher triglyceride metabolism per se contributes to mortality separate from elevated triglyceride-rich lipoproteins and body mass index. This study tested the hypotheses that higher triglyceride metabolism, measured as higher plasma glycerol and ß-hydroxybutyrate, is associated with increased all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer, and other mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study included 30 000 individuals nested within 109 751 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study. During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, 9897 individuals died (2204 from cardiovascular, 3366 from cancer, and 2745 from other causes), while none were lost to follow-up. In individuals with glycerol >80 µmol/L (highest fourth) vs. individuals with glycerol <52 µmol/L (lowest fourth), the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.31 (95% confidence interval 1.22-1.40). In individuals with ß-hydroxybutyrate >154 µmol/L (highest fourth) vs. individuals with ß-hydroxybutyrate <91 µmol/L (lowest fourth), the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.18 (1.11-1.26). Corresponding values for higher plasma glycerol and ß-hydroxybutyrate were 1.37 (1.18-1.59) and 1.18 (1.03-1.35) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.24 (1.11-1.39) and 1.16 (1.05-1.29) for cancer mortality, and 1.45 (1.28-1.66) and 1.23 (1.09-1.39) for other mortality, respectively. Results were robust to exclusion of first years of follow-up, to stratification for covariates including plasma triglycerides and body mass index, and to further adjustments. CONCLUSION: This study observed an increased risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer, and other mortality with higher triglyceride metabolism. This was not explained by higher plasma triglycerides and body mass index. The hypothesis studied in the present paper should be further validated by isotope flux studies.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

Background: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. Methods: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,162 cancer cases and up to 824,556 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 x 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e. in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") < 0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) > 70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Results: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.29, q-value=0.033, PPH4=84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.20-1.69, q-value=0.055, PPH4=73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53-0.81, q-value=0.067, PPH4=81.8%), macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05-1.23, q-value=0.072, PPH4=76.1%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97, q-value=0.15), PPH4=85.6%). For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥ 0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. Conclusion: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 5 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 5 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated.

The association between genetically elevated polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of cancer.

BACKGROUND: The causal relevance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) for risk of site-specific cancers remains uncertain. METHODS: Using a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we assessed the causal relevance of PUFAs for risk of cancer in European and East Asian ancestry individuals. We defined the primary exposure as PUFA desaturase activity, proxied by rs174546 at the FADS locus. Secondary exposures were defined as omega 3 and omega 6 PUFAs that could be proxied by genetic polymorphisms outside the FADS region. Our study used summary genetic data on 10 PUFAs and 67 cancers, corresponding to 562,871 cases and 1,619,465 controls, collected by the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) for cancer per standard deviation increase in genetically proxied PUFA exposures. FINDINGS: Genetically elevated PUFA desaturase activity was associated (P < 0.0007) with higher risk (OR [95% confidence interval]) of colorectal cancer (1.09 [1.07-1.11]), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (1.16 [1.06-1.26]), lung cancer (1.06 [1.03-1.08]) and basal cell carcinoma (1.05 [1.02-1.07]). There was little evidence for associations with reproductive cancers (OR = 1.00 [95% CI: 0.99-1.01]; Pheterogeneity = 0.25), urinary system cancers (1.03 [0.99-1.06], Pheterogeneity = 0.51), nervous system cancers (0.99 [0.95-1.03], Pheterogeneity = 0.92) or blood cancers (1.01 [0.98-1.04], Pheterogeneity = 0.09). Findings for colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remained compatible with causality in sensitivity analyses for violations of assumptions. Secondary MR analyses highlighted higher omega 6 PUFAs (arachidonic acid, gamma-linolenic acid and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid) as potential mediators. PUFA biosynthesis is known to interact with aspirin, which increases risk of bleeding and inflammatory bowel disease. In a phenome-wide MR study of non-neoplastic diseases, we found that genetic lowering of PUFA desaturase activity, mimicking a hypothetical intervention to reduce cancer risk, was associated (P < 0.0006) with increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease but not bleeding. INTERPRETATION: The PUFA biosynthesis pathway may be an intervention target for prevention of colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma but with potential for increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease. FUNDING: Cancer Resesrch UK (C52724/A20138, C18281/A19169). UK Medical Research Council (MR/P014054/1). National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411). UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4). National Cancer Institute (R00 CA215360). National Institutes of Health (U01 CA164973, R01 CA60987, R01 CA72520, U01 CA74806, R01 CA55874, U01 CA164973 and U01 CA164973).

Strategies to investigate and mitigate collider bias in genetic and Mendelian randomisation studies of disease progression.

Genetic studies of disease progression can be used to identify factors that may influence survival or prognosis, which may differ from factors that influence on disease susceptibility. Studies of disease progression feed directly into therapeutics for disease, whereas studies of incidence inform prevention strategies. However, studies of disease progression are known to be affected by collider (also known as "index event") bias since the disease progression phenotype can only be observed for individuals who have the disease. This applies equally to observational and genetic studies, including genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses. In this paper, our aim is to review several statistical methods that can be used to detect and adjust for index event bias in studies of disease progression, and how they apply to genetic and MR studies using both individual- and summary-level data. Methods to detect the presence of index event bias include the use of negative controls, a comparison of associations between risk factors for incidence in individuals with and without the disease, and an inspection of Miami plots. Methods to adjust for the bias include inverse probability weighting (with individual-level data), or Slope-Hunter and Dudbridge et al.'s index event bias adjustment (when only summary-level data are available). We also outline two approaches for sensitivity analysis. We then illustrate how three methods to minimise bias can be used in practice with two applied examples. Our first example investigates the effects of blood lipid traits on mortality from coronary heart disease, while our second example investigates genetic associations with breast cancer mortality.

Separating the effects of early and later life adiposity on colorectal cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have linked childhood obesity with elevated risk of colorectal cancer; however, it is unclear if this association is causal or independent from the effects of obesity in adulthood on colorectal cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate potential causal relationships between self-perceived body size (thinner, plumper, or about average) in early life (age 10) and measured body mass index in adulthood (mean age 56.5) with risk of colorectal cancer. The total and independent effects of body size exposures were estimated using univariable and multivariable MR, respectively. Summary data were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 453,169 participants in UK Biobank for body size and from a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of three colorectal cancer consortia of 125,478 participants. RESULTS: Genetically predicted early life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR] per category change: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.27), with stronger results for colon cancer (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.35), and distal colon cancer (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04-1.51). After accounting for adult body size using multivariable MR, effect estimates for early life body size were attenuated towards the null for colorectal cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.77-1.22) and colon cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76-1.25), while the estimate for distal colon cancer was of similar magnitude but more imprecise (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.90-1.77). Genetically predicted adult life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), colon (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.67), and proximal colon (OR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the positive association between early life body size and colorectal cancer risk is likely due to large body size retainment into adulthood.

Genetically proxied therapeutic inhibition of antihypertensive drug targets and risk of common cancers: A mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting findings on the potential adverse effects of long-term antihypertensive medication use on cancer risk. Naturally occurring variation in genes encoding antihypertensive drug targets can be used as proxies for these targets to examine the effect of their long-term therapeutic inhibition on disease outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a mendelian randomization analysis to examine the association between genetically proxied inhibition of 3 antihypertensive drug targets and risk of 4 common cancers (breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ACE, ADRB1, and SLC12A3 associated (P < 5.0 × 10-8) with systolic blood pressure (SBP) in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were used to proxy inhibition of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), ß-1 adrenergic receptor (ADRB1), and sodium-chloride symporter (NCC), respectively. Summary genetic association estimates for these SNPs were obtained from GWAS consortia for the following cancers: breast (122,977 cases, 105,974 controls), colorectal (58,221 cases, 67,694 controls), lung (29,266 cases, 56,450 controls), and prostate (79,148 cases, 61,106 controls). Replication analyses were performed in the FinnGen consortium (1,573 colorectal cancer cases, 120,006 controls). Cancer GWAS and FinnGen consortia data were restricted to individuals of European ancestry. Inverse-variance weighted random-effects models were used to examine associations between genetically proxied inhibition of these drug targets and risk of cancer. Multivariable mendelian randomization and colocalization analyses were employed to examine robustness of findings to violations of mendelian randomization assumptions. Genetically proxied ACE inhibition equivalent to a 1-mm Hg reduction in SBP was associated with increased odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio (OR) 1.13, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.22; P = 3.6 × 10-4). This finding was replicated in the FinnGen consortium (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.92; P = 0.035). There was little evidence of association of genetically proxied ACE inhibition with risk of breast cancer (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.02, P = 0.35), lung cancer (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.10; P = 0.93), or prostate cancer (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.13; P = 0.08). Genetically proxied inhibition of ADRB1 and NCC were not associated with risk of these cancers. The primary limitations of this analysis include the modest statistical power for analyses of drug targets in relation to some less common histological subtypes of cancers examined and the restriction of the majority of analyses to participants of European ancestry. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that genetically proxied long-term ACE inhibition was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, warranting comprehensive evaluation of the safety profiles of ACE inhibitors in clinical trials with adequate follow-up. There was little evidence to support associations across other drug target-cancer risk analyses, consistent with findings from short-term randomized controlled trials for these medications.

Investigating the effect of sexual behaviour on oropharyngeal cancer risk: a methodological assessment of Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Human papilloma virus infection is known to influence oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) risk, likely via sexual transmission. However, sexual behaviour has been correlated with other risk factors including smoking and alcohol, meaning independent effects are difficult to establish. We aimed to evaluate the causal effect of sexual behaviour on the risk of OPC using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: Genetic variants robustly associated with age at first sex (AFS) and the number of sexual partners (NSP) were used to perform both univariable and multivariable MR analyses with summary data on 2641 OPC cases and 6585 controls, obtained from the largest available genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Given the potential for genetic pleiotropy, we performed a number of sensitivity analyses: (i) MR methods to account for horizontal pleiotropy, (ii) MR of sexual behaviours on positive (cervical cancer and seropositivity for Chlamydia trachomatis) and negative control outcomes (lung and oral cancer), (iii) Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates (CAUSE), to account for correlated and uncorrelated horizontal pleiotropic effects, (iv) multivariable MR analysis to account for the effects of smoking, alcohol, risk tolerance and educational attainment. RESULTS: In univariable MR, we found evidence supportive of an effect of both later AFS (IVW OR = 0.4, 95%CI (0.3, 0.7), per standard deviation (SD), p = < 0.001) and increasing NSP (IVW OR = 2.2, 95%CI (1.3, 3.8) per SD, p = < 0.001) on OPC risk. These effects were largely robust to sensitivity analyses accounting for horizontal pleiotropy. However, negative control analysis suggested potential violation of the core MR assumptions and subsequent CAUSE analysis implicated pleiotropy of the genetic instruments used to proxy sexual behaviours. Finally, there was some attenuation of the univariable MR results in the multivariable models (AFS IVW OR = 0.7, 95%CI (0.4, 1.2), p = 0.21; NSP IVW OR = 0.9, 95%CI (0.5 1.7), p = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Despite using genetic variants strongly related sexual behaviour traits in large-scale GWAS, we found evidence for correlated pleiotropy. This emphasizes a need for multivariable approaches and the triangulation of evidence when performing MR of complex behavioural traits.

Epigenetic biomarkers of ageing are predictive of mortality risk in a longitudinal clinical cohort of individuals diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic clocks are biomarkers of ageing derived from DNA methylation levels at a subset of CpG sites. The difference between age predicted by these clocks and chronological age, termed "epigenetic age acceleration", has been shown to predict age-related disease and mortality. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of epigenetic age acceleration and a DNA methylation-based mortality risk score with all-cause mortality in a prospective clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000. We investigated two markers of intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAAHorvath and IEAAHannum), one marker of extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA), one optimised to predict physiological dysregulation (AgeAccelPheno), one optimised to predict lifespan (AgeAccelGrim) and a DNA methylation-based predictor of mortality (ZhangScore). Cox regression models were first used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of epigenetic age acceleration with all-cause mortality in people with oropharyngeal cancer (n = 408; 105 deaths). The added prognostic value of epigenetic markers compared to a clinical model including age, sex, TNM stage and HPV status was then evaluated. RESULTS: IEAAHannum and AgeAccelGrim were associated with mortality risk after adjustment for clinical and lifestyle factors (HRs per standard deviation [SD] increase in age acceleration = 1.30 [95% CI 1.07, 1.57; p = 0.007] and 1.40 [95% CI 1.06, 1.83; p = 0.016], respectively). There was weak evidence that the addition of AgeAccelGrim to the clinical model improved 3-year mortality prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.80 vs. 0.77; p value for difference = 0.069). CONCLUSION: In the setting of a large, clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer, our study demonstrates the potential of epigenetic markers of ageing to enhance survival prediction in people with oropharyngeal cancer, beyond established prognostic factors. Our findings have potential uses in both clinical and non-clinical contexts: to aid treatment planning and improve patient stratification.

Circulating Sclerostin Levels Are Positively Related to Coronary Artery Disease Severity and Related Risk Factors.

Romosozumab is a newly available treatment for osteoporosis acting by sclerostin inhibition. Its cardiovascular safety has been questioned after finding excess cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related events in a pivotal phase 3 trial. Previous studies of relationships between circulating sclerostin levels and CVD and associated risk factors have yielded conflicting findings, likely reflecting small numbers and selected patient groups. We aimed to characterize relationships between sclerostin and CVD and related risk factors in more detail by examining these in two large cohorts, Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study (LURIC; 34% female, mean age 63.0 years) and Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children study (ALSPAC) mothers (mean age 48.1 years). Together these provided 5069 participants with complete data. Relationships between sclerostin and CVD risk factors were meta-analyzed, adjusted for age, sex (LURIC), body mass index, smoking, social deprivation, and ethnicity (ALSPAC). Higher sclerostin levels were associated with higher risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) (odds ratio [OR] = 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12, 1.37), risk of elevated fasting glucose (OR 1.15; CI 1.04, 1.26), and triglyceride levels (ß 0.03; CI 0.00, 0.06). Conversely, higher sclerostin was associated with lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (ß -0.20; CI -0.38, -0.02), HDL cholesterol (ß -0.05; CI -0.10, -0.01), and apolipoprotein A-I (ß -0.05; CI -0.08, -0.02) (difference in mean SD per SD increase in sclerostin, with 95% CI). In LURIC, higher sclerostin was associated with an increased risk of death from cardiac disease during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.13; 1.03, 1.23) and with severity of coronary artery disease on angiogram as reflected by Friesinger score (0.05; 0.01, 0.09). Associations with cardiac mortality and coronary artery severity were partially attenuated after adjustment for risk factors potentially related to sclerostin, namely LDL and HDL cholesterol, log triglycerides, DM, hypertension, eGFR, and apolipoprotein A-I. Contrary to trial evidence suggesting sclerostin inhibition leads to an increased risk of CVD, sclerostin levels appear to be positively associated with coronary artery disease severity and mortality, partly explained by a relationship between higher sclerostin levels and major CVD risk factors. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality.

Childhood BMI shows associations with adult mortality, but these may be influenced by effects of ill health in childhood on BMI and later mortality. To avoid this, we used offspring childhood BMI as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BMI in relation to mortality and compared it with conventional associations of own childhood BMI and own mortality. We included 36,097 parent-offspring pairs with measured heights and weights from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register and register-based information on death. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using adjusted Cox regression models. For all-cause mortality, per zBMI at age 7 the conventional HR = 1.07 (95%CI: 1.04-1.09) in women and 1.02 (95%CI: 0.92-1.14) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.23 (95%CI: 1.15-1.32) in women and 1.05 (95%CI: 0.94-1.17) in men. Per zBMI at age 13, the conventional HR = 1.11 (95%CI: 1.08-1.15) in women and 1.03 (95%CI: 0.99-1.06) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.30 (95%CI: 1.19-1.42) in women and 1.15 (95%CI: 1.04-1.29) in men. Only conventional models showed indications of J-shaped associations. Our IV analyses suggest that there is a causal relationship between BMI and mortality that is positive at both high and low BMI values.

Unhealthy Behaviours and Risk of Parkinson's Disease: A Mendelian Randomisation Study.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking and alcohol intake have been identified in observational studies as potentially protective factors against developing Parkinson's disease (PD); the impact of body mass index (BMI) on PD risk is debated. Whether such epidemiological associations are causal remains unclear. Mendelian randomsation (MR) uses genetic variants to explore the effects of exposures on outcomes; potentially reducing bias from residual confounding and reverse causation. OBJECTIVE: Using MR, we examined relationships between PD risk and three unhealthy behaviours: tobacco smoking, alcohol intake, and higher BMI. METHODS: 19,924 PD cases and 2,413,087 controls were included in the analysis. We performed genome-wide association studies to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with tobacco smoking, alcohol intake, and BMI. MR analysis of the relationship between each exposure and PD was undertaken using a split-sample design. RESULTS: Ever-smoking reduced the risk of PD (OR 0.955; 95%confidence interval [CI] 0.921-0.991; p = 0.013). Higher daily alcohol intake increased the risk of PD (OR 1.125, 95%CI 1.025-1.235; p = 0.013) and a 1 kg/m2 higher BMI reduced the risk of PD (OR 0.988, 95%CI 0.979-0.997; p = 0.008). Sensitivity analyses did not suggest bias from horizontal pleiotropy or invalid instruments. CONCLUSION: Using split-sample MR in over 2.4 million participants, we observed a protective effect of smoking on risk of PD. In contrast to observational data, alcohol consumption appeared to increase the risk of PD. Higher BMI had a protective effect on PD, but the effect was small.

Selection into shift work is influenced by educational attainment and body mass index: a Mendelian randomization study in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Shift work is associated with increased cardiometabolic disease risk. This observation may be partly explained by cardiometabolic risk factors having a role in the selection of individuals into or out of shift work. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses in the UK Biobank (UKB) to test this hypothesis. METHODS: We used genetic risk scores (GRS) to proxy nine cardiometabolic risk factors and diseases (including educational attainment, body mass index (BMI), smoking, and alcohol consumption), and tested associations of each GRS with self-reported frequency of current shift work among employed UKB participants of European ancestry (n = 190 573). We used summary-level MR sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of the identified effects, and we tested whether effects were mediated through sleep timing preference. RESULTS: Genetically instrumented liability to lower educational attainment (odds ratio (OR) per 3.6 fewer years in educational attainment = 2.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.22-2.59, P = 4.84 × 10-20) and higher body mass index (OR per 4.7 kg/m2 higher BMI = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.14-1.47, P = 5.85 × 10-5) increased odds of reporting participation in frequent shift work. Results were unchanged in sensitivity analyses allowing for different assumptions regarding horizontal pleiotropy. No selection effects were evident for the remaining exposures, nor for any exposures on selection out of shift work. Sleep timing preference did not mediate the effects of BMI and educational attainment on selection into shift work. CONCLUSIONS: Liability to lower educational attainment and higher BMI may influence selection into shift work. This phenomenon may bias epidemiological studies of shift work that are performed in the UKB.

Investigating causality between liability to ADHD and substance use, and liability to substance use and ADHD risk, using Mendelian randomization.

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has consistently been associated with substance use, but the nature of this association is not fully understood. To inform intervention development and public health messages, a vital question is whether there are causal pathways from ADHD to substance use and/or vice versa. We applied bidirectional Mendelian randomization, using summary-level data from the largest available genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on ADHD, smoking (initiation, cigarettes per day, cessation, and a compound measure of lifetime smoking), alcohol use (drinks per week, alcohol problems, and alcohol dependence), cannabis use (initiation), and coffee consumption (cups per day). Genetic variants robustly associated with the "exposure" were selected as instruments and identified in the "outcome" GWAS. Effect estimates from individual genetic variants were combined with inverse-variance weighted regression and five sensitivity analyses (weighted median, weighted mode, MR-Egger, generalized summary data-based MR, and Steiger filtering). We found evidence that liability to ADHD increases likelihood of smoking initiation and heaviness of smoking among smokers, decreases likelihood of smoking cessation, and increases likelihood of cannabis initiation. There was weak evidence that liability to ADHD increases alcohol dependence risk but not drinks per week or alcohol problems. In the other direction, there was weak evidence that smoking initiation increases ADHD risk, but follow-up analyses suggested a high probability of horizontal pleiotropy. There was no clear evidence of causal pathways between ADHD and coffee consumption. Our findings corroborate epidemiological evidence, suggesting causal pathways from liability to ADHD to smoking, cannabis use, and, tentatively, alcohol dependence. Further work is needed to explore the exact mechanisms mediating these causal effects.

Identifying epigenetic biomarkers of established prognostic factors and survival in a clinical cohort of individuals with oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Smoking status, alcohol consumption and HPV infection (acquired through sexual activity) are the predominant risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer and are thought to alter the prognosis of the disease. Here, we conducted single-site and differentially methylated region (DMR) epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of these factors, in addition to ∼ 3-year survival, using Illumina Methylation EPIC DNA methylation profiles from whole blood in 409 individuals as part of the Head and Neck 5000 (HN5000) study. Overlapping sites between each factor and survival were then assessed using two-step Mendelian randomization to assess whether methylation at these positions causally affected survival. RESULTS: Using the MethylationEPIC array in an OPC dataset, we found novel CpG associations with smoking, alcohol consumption and ~ 3-year survival. We found no CpG associations below our multiple testing threshold associated with HPV16 E6 serological response (used as a proxy for HPV infection). CpG site associations below our multiple-testing threshold (PBonferroni < 0.05) for both a prognostic factor and survival were observed at four gene regions: SPEG (smoking), GFI1 (smoking), PPT2 (smoking) and KHDC3L (alcohol consumption). Evidence for a causal effect of DNA methylation on survival was only observed in the SPEG gene region (HR per SD increase in methylation score 1.28, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.43, P 2.12 × 10-05). CONCLUSIONS: Part of the effect of smoking on survival in those with oropharyngeal cancer may be mediated by methylation at the SPEG gene locus. Replication in data from independent datasets and data from HN5000 with longer follow-up times is needed to confirm these findings.

Association Between Genetically Proxied Inhibition of HMG-CoA Reductase and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer.

Importance: Preclinical and epidemiological studies indicate a potential chemopreventive role of statins in epithelial ovarian cancer risk. Objective: To evaluate the association of genetically proxied inhibition of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase (ie, genetic variants related to lower function of HMG-CoA reductase, target of statins) with epithelial ovarian cancer among the general population and in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Design, Setting, and Participants: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in HMGCR, NPC1L1, and PCSK9 associated with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis (N ≤196 475) were used to proxy therapeutic inhibition of HMG-CoA reductase, Niemann-Pick C1-Like 1 (NPC1L1) and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9), respectively. Summary statistics were obtained for these SNPs from a GWAS meta-analysis of case-control analyses of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC; N = 63 347) and from a GWAS meta-analysis of retrospective cohort analyses of epithelial ovarian cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA; N = 31 448). Across the 2 consortia, participants were enrolled between 1973 and 2014 and followed up through 2015. OCAC participants came from 14 countries and CIMBA participants came from 25 countries. SNPs were combined into multi-allelic models and mendelian randomization estimates representing lifelong inhibition of targets were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models. Exposures: Primary exposure was genetically proxied inhibition of HMG-CoA reductase and secondary exposures were genetically proxied inhibition of NPC1L1 and PCSK9 and genetically proxied circulating LDL cholesterol levels. Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall and histotype-specific invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (general population) and epithelial ovarian cancer (BRCA1/2 mutation carriers), measured as ovarian cancer odds (general population) and hazard ratio (BRCA1/2 mutation carriers). Results: The OCAC sample included 22 406 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 40 941 control individuals and the CIMBA sample included 3887 women with epithelial ovarian cancer and 27 561 control individuals. Median ages for the cohorts ranged from 41.5 to 59.0 years and all participants were of European ancestry. In the primary analysis, genetically proxied HMG-CoA reductase inhibition equivalent to a 1-mmol/L (38.7-mg/dL) reduction in LDL cholesterol was associated with lower odds of epithelial ovarian cancer (odds ratio [OR], 0.60 [95% CI, 0.43-0.83]; P = .002). In BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, genetically proxied HMG-CoA reductase inhibition was associated with lower ovarian cancer risk (hazard ratio, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.51-0.93]; P = .01). In secondary analyses, there were no significant associations of genetically proxied inhibition of NPC1L1 (OR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.53-1.75]; P = .91), PCSK9 (OR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.85-1.13]; P = .80), or circulating LDL cholesterol (OR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.91-1.05]; P = .55) with epithelial ovarian cancer. Conclusions and Relevance: Genetically proxied inhibition of HMG-CoA reductase was significantly associated with lower odds of epithelial ovarian cancer. However, these findings do not indicate risk reduction from medications that inhibit HMG-CoA reductase; further research is needed to understand whether there is a similar association with such medications.

Plasma lipids and risk of aortic valve stenosis: a Mendelian randomization study.

AIMS: Aortic valve stenosis is commonly considered a degenerative disorder with no recommended preventive intervention, with only valve replacement surgery or catheter intervention as treatment options. We sought to assess the causal association between exposure to lipid levels and risk of aortic stenosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Causality of association was assessed using two-sample Mendelian randomization framework through different statistical methods. We retrieved summary estimations of 157 genetic variants that have been shown to be associated with plasma lipid levels in the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium that included 188 577 participants, mostly European ancestry, and genetic association with aortic stenosis as the main outcome from a total of 432 173 participants in the UK Biobank. Secondary negative control outcomes included aortic regurgitation and mitral regurgitation. The odds ratio for developing aortic stenosis per unit increase in lipid parameter was 1.52 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-1.90; per 0.98 mmol/L] for low density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, 1.03 (95% CI 0.80-1.31; per 0.41 mmol/L) for high density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, and 1.38 (95% CI 0.92-2.07; per 1 mmol/L) for triglycerides. There was no evidence of a causal association between any of the lipid parameters and aortic or mitral regurgitation. CONCLUSION: Lifelong exposure to high LDL-cholesterol increases the risk of symptomatic aortic stenosis, suggesting that LDL-lowering treatment may be effective in its prevention.

The Parkinson's Disease Mendelian Randomization Research Portal.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization is a method for exploring observational associations to find evidence of causality. OBJECTIVE: To apply Mendelian randomization between risk factors/phenotypic traits (exposures) and PD in a large, unbiased manner, and to create a public resource for research. METHODS: We used two-sample Mendelian randomization in which the summary statistics relating to single-nucleotide polymorphisms from 5,839 genome-wide association studies of exposures were used to assess causal relationships with PD. We selected the highest-quality exposure genome-wide association studies for this report (n = 401). For the disease outcome, summary statistics from the largest published PD genome-wide association studies were used. For each exposure, the causal effect on PD was assessed using the inverse variance weighted method, followed by a range of sensitivity analyses. We used a false discovery rate of 5% from the inverse variance weighted analysis to prioritize exposures of interest. RESULTS: We observed evidence for causal associations between 12 exposures and risk of PD. Of these, nine were effects related to increasing adiposity and decreasing risk of PD. The remaining top three exposures that affected PD risk were tea drinking, time spent watching television, and forced vital capacity, but these may have been biased and were less convincing. Other exposures at nominal statistical significance included inverse effects of smoking and alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: We present a new platform which offers Mendelian randomization analyses for a total of 5,839 genome-wide association studies versus the largest PD genome-wide association studies available (https://pdgenetics.shinyapps.io/MRportal/). Alongside, we report further evidence to support a causal role for adiposity on lowering the risk of PD. © 2019 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

A Phenome-Wide Mendelian Randomization Study of Pancreatic Cancer Using Summary Genetic Data.

BACKGROUND: The 5-year mortality rate for pancreatic cancer is among the highest of all cancers. Greater understanding of underlying causes could inform population-wide intervention strategies for prevention. Summary genetic data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have become available for thousands of phenotypes. These data can be exploited in Mendelian randomization (MR) phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) to efficiently screen the phenome for potential determinants of disease risk. METHODS: We conducted an MR-PheWAS of pancreatic cancer using 486 phenotypes, proxied by 9,124 genetic variants, and summary genetic data from a GWAS of pancreatic cancer (7,110 cancer cases, 7,264 controls). ORs and 95% confidence intervals per 1 SD increase in each phenotype were generated. RESULTS: We found evidence that previously reported risk factors of body mass index (BMI; 1.46; 1.20-1.78) and hip circumference (1.42; 1.21-1.67) were associated with pancreatic cancer. We also found evidence of novel associations with metabolites that have not previously been implicated in pancreatic cancer: ADpSGEGDFXAEGGGVR*, a fibrinogen-cleavage peptide (1.60; 1.31-1.95), and O-sulfo-l-tyrosine (0.58; 0.46-0.74). An inverse association was also observed with lung adenocarcinoma (0.63; 0.54-0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Markers of adiposity (BMI and hip circumference) are potential intervention targets for pancreatic cancer prevention. Further clarification of the causal relevance of the fibrinogen-cleavage peptides and O-sulfo-l-tyrosine in pancreatic cancer etiology is required, as is the basis of our observed association with lung adenocarcinoma. IMPACT: For pancreatic cancer, MR-PheWAS can augment existing risk factor knowledge and generate novel hypotheses to investigate.