Child wasting and concurrent stunting in low- and middle-income countries.

Sustainable Development Goal 2.2-to end malnutrition by 2030-includes the elimination of child wasting, defined as a weight-for-length z-score that is more than two standard deviations below the median of the World Health Organization standards for child growth1. Prevailing methods to measure wasting rely on cross-sectional surveys that cannot measure onset, recovery and persistence-key features that inform preventive interventions and estimates of disease burden. Here we analyse 21 longitudinal cohorts and show that wasting is a highly dynamic process of onset and recovery, with incidence peaking between birth and 3 months. Many more children experience an episode of wasting at some point during their first 24 months than prevalent cases at a single point in time suggest. For example, at the age of 24 months, 5.6% of children were wasted, but by the same age (24 months), 29.2% of children had experienced at least one wasting episode and 10.0% had experienced two or more episodes. Children who were wasted before the age of 6 months had a faster recovery and shorter episodes than did children who were wasted at older ages; however, early wasting increased the risk of later growth faltering, including concurrent wasting and stunting (low length-for-age z-score), and thus increased the risk of mortality. In diverse populations with high seasonal rainfall, the population average weight-for-length z-score varied substantially (more than 0.5 z in some cohorts), with the lowest mean z-scores occurring during the rainiest months; this indicates that seasonally targeted interventions could be considered. Our results show the importance of establishing interventions to prevent wasting from birth to the age of 6 months, probably through improved maternal nutrition, to complement current programmes that focus on children aged 6-59 months.

Causes and consequences of child growth faltering in low-resource settings.

Growth faltering in children (low length for age or low weight for length) during the first 1,000 days of life (from conception to 2 years of age) influences short-term and long-term health and survival1,2. Interventions such as nutritional supplementation during pregnancy and the postnatal period could help prevent growth faltering, but programmatic action has been insufficient to eliminate the high burden of stunting and wasting in low- and middle-income countries. Identification of age windows and population subgroups on which to focus will benefit future preventive efforts. Here we use a population intervention effects analysis of 33 longitudinal cohorts (83,671 children, 662,763 measurements) and 30 separate exposures to show that improving maternal anthropometry and child condition at birth accounted for population increases in length-for-age z-scores of up to 0.40 and weight-for-length z-scores of up to 0.15 by 24 months of age. Boys had consistently higher risk of all forms of growth faltering than girls. Early postnatal growth faltering predisposed children to subsequent and persistent growth faltering. Children with multiple growth deficits exhibited higher mortality rates from birth to 2 years of age than children without growth deficits (hazard ratios 1.9 to 8.7). The importance of prenatal causes and severe consequences for children who experienced early growth faltering support a focus on pre-conception and pregnancy as a key opportunity for new preventive interventions.

Development and Validation of a Diabetic Retinopathy Risk Stratification Algorithm.

OBJECTIVE: Although diabetic retinopathy is a leading cause of blindness worldwide, diabetes-related blindness can be prevented through effective screening, detection, and treatment of disease. The study goal was to develop risk stratification algorithms for the onset of retinal complications of diabetes, including proliferative diabetic retinopathy, referable retinopathy, and macular edema. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of patients from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Diabetes Registry who had no evidence of diabetic retinopathy at a baseline diabetic retinopathy screening during 2008-2020 was performed. Machine learning and logistic regression prediction models for onset of proliferative diabetic retinopathy, diabetic macular edema, and referable retinopathy detected through routine screening were trained and internally validated. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) metrics. RESULTS: The study cohort (N = 276,794) was 51.9% male and 42.1% White. Mean (±SD) age at baseline was 60.0 (±13.1) years. A machine learning XGBoost algorithm was effective in identifying patients who developed proliferative diabetic retinopathy (AUC 0.86; 95% CI, 0.86-0.87), diabetic macular edema (AUC 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.77), and referable retinopathy (AUC 0.78; 95% CI, 0.78-0.79). Similar results were found using a simpler nine-covariate logistic regression model: proliferative diabetic retinopathy (AUC 0.82; 95% CI, 0.80-0.83), diabetic macular edema (AUC 0.73; 95% CI, 0.72-0.74), and referable retinopathy (AUC 0.75; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Relatively simple logistic regression models using nine readily available clinical variables can be used to rank order patients for onset of diabetic eye disease and thereby more efficiently prioritize and target screening for at risk patients.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Tenofovir Exposure, and the Risk of Poor Coronavirus Disease 19 Outcomes: Real-World Analysis From 6 United States Cohorts Before Vaccine Rollout.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH) may be at increased risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We examined HIV status and COVID-19 severity, and whether tenofovir, used by PWH for HIV treatment and people without HIV (PWoH) for HIV prevention, was associated with protection. METHODS: Within 6 cohorts of PWH and PWoH in the United States, we compared the 90-day risk of any hospitalization, COVID-19 hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation or death by HIV status and by prior exposure to tenofovir, among those with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection between 1 March and 30 November 2020. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) were estimated by targeted maximum likelihood estimation, with adjustment for demographics, cohort, smoking, body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, calendar period of first infection, and CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA levels (in PWH only). RESULTS: Among PWH (n = 1785), 15% were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 5% received mechanical ventilation or died, compared with 6% and 2%, respectively, for PWoH (n = 189 351). Outcome prevalence was lower for PWH and PWoH with prior tenofovir use. In adjusted analyses, PWH were at increased risk compared with PWoH for any hospitalization (aRR, 1.31 [95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.44]), COVID-19 hospitalizations (1.29 [1.15-1.45]), and mechanical ventilation or death (1.51 [1.19-1.92]). Prior tenofovir use was associated with reduced hospitalizations among PWH (aRR, 0.85 [95% confidence interval, .73-.99]) and PWoH (0.71 [.62-.81]). CONCLUSIONS: Before COVID-19 vaccine availability, PWH were at greater risk for severe outcomes than PWoH. Tenofovir was associated with a significant reduction in clinical events for both PWH and PWoH.

Metalworking Fluids and Colon Cancer Risk: Longitudinal Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation.

Metalworking fluids (MWFs) are a class of complex mixtures of chemicals and oils, including several known carcinogens that may pose a cancer hazard to millions of workers. Reports on the relation between MWFs and incident colon cancer have been mixed. METHODS: We investigated the relation between exposure to straight, soluble, and synthetic MWFs and the incidence of colon cancer in a cohort of automobile manufacturing industry workers, adjusting for time-varying confounding affected by prior exposure to reduce healthy worker survivor bias. We used longitudinal targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) to estimate the difference in the cumulative incidence of colon cancer comparing counterfactual outcomes if always exposed above to always exposed below an exposure cutoff while at work. Exposure concentration cutoffs were selected a priori at the 90th percentile of total particulate matter for each fluid type: 0.034, 0.400, and 0.003 for straight, soluble, and synthetic MWFs, respectively. RESULTS: The estimated 25-year risk differences were 3.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.7, 7.0) for straight, 1.3% (95% CI = -2.3, 4.8) for soluble, and 0.2% (95% CI = -3.3, 3.7) for synthetic MWFs, respectively. The corresponding risk ratios were 2.39 (1.12, 5.08), 1.43 (0.67, 3.04), and 1.08 (0.51, 2.30) for straight, soluble, and synthetic MWFs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: By controlling for time-varying confounding affected by prior exposure, a key feature of occupational cohorts, we were able to provide evidence for a causal effect of straight MWF exposure on colon cancer risk that was not found using standard analytical techniques in previous reports.

Mediation of Neighborhood Effects on Adolescent Substance Use by the School and Peer Environments.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that aspects of the neighborhood environment may influence risk of problematic drug use among adolescents. Our objective was to examine mediating roles of aspects of the school and peer environments on the effect of receiving a Section 8 housing voucher and using it to move out of public housing on adolescent substance use outcomes. METHODS: We used data from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment that randomized receipt of a Section 8 housing voucher. Hypothesized mediators included school climate, safety, peer drug use, and participation in an after-school sport or club. We applied a doubly robust, semiparametric estimator to longitudinal MTO data to estimate stochastic direct and indirect effects of randomization on cigarette use, marijuana use, and problematic drug use. Stochastic direct and indirect effects differ from natural direct and indirect effects in that they do not require assuming no posttreatment confounder of the mediator-outcome relationship. Such an assumption would be at odds with any causal model that reflects an intervention affecting a mediator and outcome through adherence to treatment assignment. RESULTS: Having friends who use drugs and involvement in after-school sports or clubs partially mediated the effect of housing voucher receipt on adolescent substance use (e.g., stochastic indirect effect 0.45% [95% confidence interval: 0.12%, 0.79%] for having friends who use drugs and 0.04% [95% confidence interval: -0.02%, 0.10%] for involvement in after-school sports or clubs mediating the relationship between housing voucher receipt and marijuana use among boys). However, these mediating effects were small, contributing only fractions of a percent to the effect of voucher receipt on probability of substance use. No school environment variables were mediators. CONCLUSIONS: Measured school- and peer-environment variables played little role in mediating the effect of housing voucher receipt on subsequent adolescent substance use.

Estimating outcomes and cost effectiveness using a single-arm clinical trial: ofatumumab for double-refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Ofatumumab (Arzerra®, Novartis) is a treatment for chronic lymphocytic leukemia refractory to fludarabine and alemtuzumab [double refractory (DR-CLL)]. Ofatumumab was licensed on the basis of an uncontrolled Phase II study, Hx-CD20-406, in which patients receiving ofatumumab survived for a median of 13.9 months. However, the lack of an internal control arm presents an obstacle for the estimation of comparative effectiveness. METHODS: The objective of the study was to present a method to estimate the cost effectiveness of ofatumumab in the treatment of DR-CLL. As no suitable historical control was available for modelling, the outcomes from non-responders to ofatumumab were used to model the effect of best supportive care (BSC). This was done via a Cox regression to control for differences in baseline characteristics between groups. This analysis was included in a partitioned survival model built in Microsoft® Excel with utilities and costs taken from published sources, with costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at a rate of 3.5% per annum. RESULTS: Using the outcomes seen in non-responders, ofatumumab is expected to add approximately 0.62 life years (1.50 vs. 0.88). Using published utility values this translates to an additional 0.30 QALYs (0.77 vs. 0.47). At the list price, ofatumumab had a cost per QALY of £130,563, and a cost per life year of £63,542. The model was sensitive to changes in assumptions regarding overall survival estimates and utility values. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the potential of using data for non-responders to model outcomes for BSC in cost-effectiveness evaluations based on single-arm trials. Further research is needed on the estimation of comparative effectiveness using uncontrolled clinical studies.

Long-term outcomes among African-American and white women with breast cancer: what is the impact of comorbidity?

OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between comorbidity and long-term mortality from breast cancer and other causes among African-American and white women with breast cancer. METHODS: A total of 170 African-American and 829 white women aged 40-84years were followed for up to 28years with median follow-up of 11.3years in the Health and Functioning in Women (HFW) study. The impact of the Charlson Comorbidity Score (CCS) in the first few months following breast cancer diagnosis on the risk of mortality from breast cancer and other causes was examined using extended Cox models. RESULTS: Median follow-up was significantly shorter for African-American women than their white counterparts (median 8.5years vs. 12.3years). Compared to white women, African-American women had significantly fewer years of education, greater body mass index, were more likely to have functional limitations and later stage at breast cancer diagnosis, and fewer had adequate financial resources (all P<0.05). Proportionately more African-American women died of breast cancer than white women (37.1% vs. 31.4%, P=0.15). A positive and statistically significant time-varying effect of the Charlson Comorbidity Score (CCS) on other-cause mortality persisted throughout the first 5years of follow-up (P<0.001) but not for its remainder. CONCLUSIONS: Higher CCS was associated with increased risk of other-cause mortality, but not breast cancer specific mortality; the association did not differ among African-American and white women.

Technical evaluation of methods for identifying chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in healthcare claims databases.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare claims databases have been used in several studies to characterize the risk and burden of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN) and effectiveness of colony-stimulating factors against FN. The accuracy of methods previously used to identify FN in such databases has not been formally evaluated. METHODS: Data comprised linked electronic medical records from Geisinger Health System and healthcare claims data from Geisinger Health Plan. Subjects were classified into subgroups based on whether or not they were hospitalized for FN per the presumptive "gold standard" (ANC <1.0×10(9)/L, and body temperature ≥38.3°C or receipt of antibiotics) and claims-based definition (diagnosis codes for neutropenia, fever, and/or infection). Accuracy was evaluated principally based on positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity. RESULTS: Among 357 study subjects, 82 (23%) met the gold standard for hospitalized FN. For the claims-based definition including diagnosis codes for neutropenia plus fever in any position (n=28), PPV was 100% and sensitivity was 34% (95% CI: 24-45). For the definition including neutropenia in the primary position (n=54), PPV was 87% (78-95) and sensitivity was 57% (46-68). For the definition including neutropenia in any position (n=71), PPV was 77% (68-87) and sensitivity was 67% (56-77). CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized for chemotherapy-induced FN can be identified in healthcare claims databases--with an acceptable level of mis-classification--using diagnosis codes for neutropenia, or neutropenia plus fever.

Cost-effectiveness of lapatinib plus capecitabine in women with HER2+ metastatic breast cancer who have received prior therapy with trastuzumab.

BACKGROUND: In a phase III trial of women with HER2+ metastatic breast cancer (MBC) previously treated with trastuzumab, an anthracycline, and taxanes (EGF100151), lapatinib plus capecitabine (L+C) improved time to progression (TTP) versus capecitabine monotherapy (C-only). In a trial including HER2+ MBC patients who had received at least one prior course of trastuzumab and no more than one prior course of palliative chemotherapy (GBG 26/BIG 03-05), continued trastuzumab plus capecitabine (T+C) also improved TTP. METHODS: An economic model using patient-level data from EGF100151 and published results of GBG 26/BIG 03-05 as well as other literature were used to evaluate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained with L+C versus C-only and versus T+C in women with HER2+ MBC previously treated with trastuzumab from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. RESULTS: Expected costs were £28,816 with L+C, £13,985 with C-only and £28,924 with T+C. Corresponding QALYs were 0.927, 0.737 and 0.896. In the base case, L+C was estimated to provide more QALYs at a lower cost compared with T+C; cost per QALY gained was £77,993 with L+C versus C-only. In pairwise probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the probability that L+C is preferred to C-only was 0.03 given a threshold of £30,000. The probability that L+C is preferred to T+C was 0.54 regardless of the threshold. CONCLUSIONS: When compared against capecitabine alone, the addition of lapatinib has a cost-effectiveness ratio exceeding the threshold normally used by NICE. Compared with T+C, L+C is dominant in the base case and approximately equally likely to be cost-effective in probabilistic sensitivity analyses over a wide range of threshold values.

Cost-effectiveness of zoledronic acid plus endocrine therapy in premenopausal women with hormone-responsive early breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding zoledronic acid 4 mg intravenously every 6 months to endocrine therapy in premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer from a US health care system perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Markov model was developed to predict disease progression, mortality, and costs of breast cancer care for premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer receiving up to 3 years of (1) endocrine therapy (goserelin plus tamoxifen or anastrozole); or (2) endocrine therapy plus zoledronic acid. Model parameters were obtained from ABCSG-12 (Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group Trial-12) and the literature. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained with zoledronic acid was calculated under 2 scenarios: (1) benefits of zoledronic acid persist to maximum (7 years) follow-up in ABCSG-12 ("trial benefits") or (2) benefits persist until death ("lifetime benefits"). RESULTS: Adding zoledronic acid to endocrine therapy was projected to yield a gain of 0.41 life years (LYs) and 0.43 QALYs assuming trial benefits and 1.34 LYs and 1.41 QALYs assuming lifetime benefits. Assuming trial benefits, the incremental cost per QALY gained with zoledronic acid was $9300. Assuming lifetime benefits, zoledronic acid was estimated to increase QALYs and reduce costs. Cost per QALY gained was

Cost-effectiveness of abatacept in patients with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis and inadequate response to tumor necrosis factor-alpha antagonists.

OBJECTIVE: To assess cost-effectiveness of abatacept in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with inadequate response to tumor necrosis factor-alpha antagonists (anti-TNF). METHODS: We developed a simulation model to depict progression of disability [in terms of Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ-DI)] in women aged 55-64 years with moderately to severely active RA and inadequate response to anti-TNF. At model entry, patients were assumed to receive either oral disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD) only or oral DMARD plus abatacept. Patients were then tracked from model entry until death. Future health-state utilities and medical-care costs (except study therapy) were estimated based on predicted values of the HAQ-DI. The model was estimated using data from a Phase III clinical trial of abatacept plus secondary sources. Cost-effectiveness was expressed in terms of incremental cost (2006 US$) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained alternatively over 10 years and a lifetime. Future costs and health effects were discounted at 3% annually. RESULTS: Over 10 years, abatacept would yield 1.0 additional QALY (undiscounted) per patient (4.0 vs 3.0 for oral DMARD) at an incremental (discounted) cost of $45,497 (100,648 vs $55,151) respectively; over a lifetime, corresponding figures were 1.6 QALY (5.8 vs 4.2) and $64,978 ($140,714 vs $82,489). Cost-effectiveness was [mean (95% CI)] $50,576 ($47,056, $54,944) per QALY gained over 10 years, and $45,979 ($42,678, $49,932) per QALY gained over a lifetime. Findings were robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Abatacept is cost-effective by current standards of medical practice in patients with moderately to severely active RA and inadequate response to an anti-TNF.

Cost-effectiveness of letrozole versus tamoxifen as initial adjuvant therapy in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor positive early breast cancer from a Canadian perspective.

BACKGROUND: In the primary core analysis of BIG 1-98, a randomized, double-blind trial comparing 5 years of initial adjuvant therapy with letrozole versus tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) early breast cancer, letrozole significantly improved disease-free survival by 19% and reduced the risk of breast cancer recurrence by 28% and distant recurrence by 27%. METHODS: A Markov model was used to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained with 5 years of initial adjuvant therapy with letrozole versus tamoxifen from a Canadian healthcare system perspective. Probabilities of recurrence and side effects for tamoxifen were based on published results of BIG 1-98 and other published population-based studies. Corresponding probabilities for letrozole were calculated by multiplying probabilities for tamoxifen by estimated relative risks for letrozole versus tamoxifen from BIG 1-98. Other probabilities, costs of breast-cancer care and treatment of side effects, and health-state utilities were obtained from published studies. Costs and QALYs were estimated over the lifetime of a cohort of postmenopausal women with HR+ early breast cancer, aged 60 years at initiation of therapy, and discounted at 5% annually. RESULTS: Compared with tamoxifen, letrozole yields an additional 0.368 life-years (12.453 vs. 12.086) and 0.343 QALYs (11.582 vs. 11.239). These benefits are obtained at an additional cost of Can$ 8,110 (Can$ 30,819 vs. Can$ 22,709). Cost per QALY gained for letrozole versus tamoxifen is Can$ 23,662 (95% CI Can$ 15,667-Can$ 52,014). CONCLUSION: In postmenopausal women with HR+ early breast cancer, initial adjuvant treatment with letrozole is cost-effective from the Canadian healthcare system perspective.

Consequences and costs of noncompliance with iron chelation therapy in patients with transfusion-dependent thalassemia: a literature review.

BACKGROUND: Patients with thalassemia major require iron chelation therapy (ICT) to prevent complications from transfusional iron overload. Deferoxamine is effective, but requires administration as a slow continuous subcutaneous or intravenous infusion five to seven times per week. Deferiprone is a three-times-daily oral iron chelator, but has limited availability in the United States. Deferasirox is a once-daily oral iron chelator that was approved in the United States in 2005 for patients older than 2 years of age with transfusional iron overload. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Published evidence on rates of compliance with ICT and the association between compliance, and the incidence and costs of complications of iron overload, in patients with thalassemia major was reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 18 studies were identified reporting data on compliance with ICT, including 7 that examined deferoxamine only, 6 that examined deferiprone only, and 5 that compared deferoxamine and deferiprone; no studies reporting compliance with deferasirox were identified. In studies of deferoxamine only, estimated mean compliance ranged from 59 to 78 percent. Studies of deferiprone generally reported better compliance, ranging from 79 to 98 percent. Results of comparative studies of deferoxamine and deferiprone suggest that compliance may be better with oral therapy. Numerous studies demonstrate that that poor compliance with ICT results in increased risk of cardiac disease and endocrinopathies, as well as lower survival. Although data on the costs of noncompliance are limited, a recent model-based study estimated the lifetime costs of inadequate compliance with deferoxamine to be $33,142. CONCLUSIONS: Inadequate compliance with ICT in thalassemia major is common and results in substantial morbidity and mortality, as well as increased costs.

Cost-effectiveness of letrozole versus tamoxifen as initial adjuvant therapy in hormone receptor-positive postmenopausal women with early-stage breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: In Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98, a randomized, double-blind trial comparing 5 years of initial adjuvant therapy with letrozole versus tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer, letrozole significantly improved disease-free survival by 19% and reduced risk of breast cancer recurrence by 28% and distant recurrence by 27%. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A Markov model was used to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained with 5 years of initial adjuvant therapy with letrozole versus tamoxifen from a US health care system perspective. Probabilities and costs of breast cancer recurrence and treatment-related adverse events and health-state utilities were based on published results of BIG 1-98 and other published studies. Costs and QALYs were estimated over the lifetime of a cohort of postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer, aged 60 years at initiation of therapy. In our base case, we assumed that benefits of letrozole on risk of breast cancer recurrence are maintained for 5 years after therapy discontinuation ("carry-over effect") and examined the effects of this assumption on results in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Under base-case assumptions, letrozole yields an additional 0.409 QALYs versus tamoxifen at an additional cost of $9705, yielding a cost per QALY gained for letrozole versus tamoxifen of $23,743 (95% confidence interval, $14,087-$51,129). Assuming no carry-over effects, letrozole yields 0.264 QALYs at a cost of $10,341, for a cost per QALY gained of $39,098 (95% confidence interval, $23,968- $83,501). CONCLUSION: In postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer, initial adjuvant treatment with letrozole is cost-effective from the US health care system perspective.